What a c8alpha pick looks like.
Five real picks from the system, fully detailed: the signal that fired, the LLM-generated thesis, the conviction score, the validated exit rule, and the actual outcome compared against the S&P 500 over the same holding window. Four winners and one loss — chosen deliberately, because single-side curation isn't honest.
AEVA uoa_slow_build: 4d LEAP streak (62% conv, 4.6x rvol), drift PF 4.37, 5d post-ER
AEVA shows a 4-day LEAP-tier accumulation streak with 62% conviction and 4.6x avg rvol, supported by drift PF 4.37 (medium_validated cell, OOS n unknown). Signal is 5 days post-earnings with 80 days to next print. Conviction capped at MED due to medium_validated cell strength (unknown OOS sample size).
LEAP-tier 3d streak (37% conv, 12.4x rvol, 85% calls) on drift PF 4.37; 5d post-ER, 85d to next print
uoa_slow_build shows drift PF 4.37 with medium_validated cell strength (OOS n unknown). PSNL exhibits LEAP-tier signal: 3d streak at 37% conviction, 12.4x avg rvol, 85% calls with 57% LEAP concentration, and trend acceleration from 1.6x → 3.7x → 31.8x. Signal fires 5 days post-earnings with 85 days to next print, providing clean runway for thesis development.
Institutional OI build (3d streak, 59% LEAPS, 1.47% OTM weighted) on medium-validated cell (PF 2.18, n=160, p=0.003)
The institutional_oi_build play shows medium-validated evidence with PF 2.18 across 160 OOS observations (perm_p=0.003). Signal features include a 3-day streak with 59% LEAPS concentration and 1.47% OTM-weighted positioning, scoring 11/17 on the feature checklist. Conviction capped at MED due to playground tier and medium_validated cell strength (n_oos=160, PF=2.18).
BLDP uoa_smart_divergence: 4-day accum streak, 96% calls, 34x vol—medium-validated cell (PF 1.80, n=1303)
BLDP shows unusual options activity with a 4-day accumulation streak, 96% call bias, and 34x volume ratio on the uoa_smart_divergence play (PF 1.80, OOS n=1303, perm_p=0.002). The cell is medium-validated with 1303 out-of-sample observations, supporting moderate conviction. Playground tier caps conviction at MED; 10 days post-earnings with next print 88 days out provides a clean runway for the thesis to develop.
LEAP-tier 3d streak, 93% calls, 21.8x avg rvol; drift PF 4.37 (medium_validated cell)
ASTE shows LEAP-tier unusual options activity with a 3-day streak at 21.8x average relative volume and 93% call-weighted flow, including 33% LEAPS. The uoa_slow_build play shows drift PF 4.37 in a medium_validated cell (OOS n unknown, capping conviction at MED). Signal 5 days post-earnings with 86 days to next print provides clean runway for the thesis to develop.