Popular trading beliefs, run through the real machinery.
Each piece below takes something the retail trading industry sells — a strategy, a statistic, a story — and runs it through the same validation gauntlet we apply to our own ideas: permutation tests, out-of-sample splits, honest sample sizes. Most things don't survive. Including, frequently, ours: most ideas die in research before ever becoming a play, and the full plays that stop working are killed in public — 25 so far.
The 97% win rate that loses money
We ran a strategy that won 97.5% of 244 live trades. Then we asked the only question that matters — and killed it.
PF 14.6, on 16 trades
The most exciting number our machine ever produced, and why we refused to trade it.
Your backtest is lying to you
A strategy validated at profit factor 4.05, went live at 0.48, got killed — and then the autopsy found the kill diagnosis was partly wrong. It still doesn't trade.
Idea Scout
We run this gauntlet on our own ideas every week, and publish who's recommending what — where the crowd agrees, where it splits, and who just changed their mind. One free email a week.
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