Popular trading beliefs, run through the real machinery.
Each piece below takes something the retail trading industry sells — a strategy, a statistic, a story — and runs it through the same validation gauntlet we apply to our own ideas: permutation tests, out-of-sample splits, honest sample sizes. Most things don't survive. Including, frequently, ours: most ideas die in research before ever becoming a play, and the full plays that stop working are killed in public — 24 so far.
The 97% win rate that loses money
We ran a strategy that won 97.5% of 244 live trades. Then we asked the only question that matters — and killed it.
PF 14.6, on 16 trades
The most exciting number our machine ever produced, and why we refused to trade it.
Your backtest is lying to you
A strategy validated at profit factor 4.05, went live at 0.48, got killed — and then the autopsy found the kill diagnosis was partly wrong. It still doesn't trade.