The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Arthur Hayes's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Arthur Hayes is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances —
bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
2025-09-24
HYPE
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Near-term Hyperliquid faces a pincer: a major token unlock coinciding with zero-fee competitors (Lighter, Astra) attacking its volume, which reduces revenue and thus buyback capacity, making the unlock overhang more dangerous
“if competitors offer zero, I can't buy back all these tokens that traders are worried about developers selling”
Inevitable Money Printing Will Drive A “Debt Doom Loop” | Arthur Hayes
2025-09-24
LOCAL CURRENCY STABLECOINS
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
In well-banked Asian markets (Korea, Japan, Singapore) domestic instant-payment infrastructure already works and users explicitly want dollar accounts, making local-currency stablecoin projects economically nonviable
“at the end of the day, the clients in these markets want a dollar bank account”
Inevitable Money Printing Will Drive A “Debt Doom Loop” | Arthur Hayes
2025-08-19
HYPE
owns
Wealthion · video
Hyperliquid's permissionless central-limit-order-book perp infrastructure will capture the decentralized derivatives market and democratize token launches, while a 95%-P&L buyback mechanism returns value directly to token holders
“hyperliquid is probably my number one bet there for decentralized exchange”
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Will Soar as Money Printing Won’t Stop!
2025-08-19
ENA
bullish
Wealthion · video
Ethena tokenizes a cash-and-carry basis trade to offer 5–10% yield on stablecoin deposits, making it the safest indigenous yield in crypto and a primary beneficiary as global stablecoin adoption channels trillions onto-chain
“Athena offers me 5 to 10%... probably the safest indigenous yield within crypto”
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Will Soar as Money Printing Won’t Stop!
Said again: 2025-09-24 (Forward Guidance)
2025-08-19
BITCOIN
bullish
Wealthion · video
Governments with printing presses invariably print money to win elections, making fiat debasement a structural constant and Bitcoin the best-performing asset hedge against it
“No government ever when they have the printing press refuses themselves the ability to print money”
90d -18.4% · 180d -39.1% · 1y -38.6%
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Will Soar as Money Printing Won’t Stop!
Said again: 2025-09-24 (Forward Guidance)
2025-08-19
ETHFI
bullish
Wealthion · video
Ether.fi solves the offline-spending problem for stablecoin holders via a crypto-native debit card, positioning it as the neo-bank rails for the coming multi-trillion stablecoin deposit wave
“there's Etherfi and I have a cash card... I just tap and pay”
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Will Soar as Money Printing Won’t Stop!
2025-04-24
QE
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
The Fed is already effectively printing money via central bank swap lines with the BOJ to warehouse Japanese Treasury selling, which debases the dollar and is bullish for hard assets even though the public doesn't recognise it as QE
“they are printing money. It's just in a way that you don't”
The Biggest Risk To The US Financial System
2025-04-23
long BITCOIN / short Big Tech
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Reducing the US current account deficit mathematically forces foreigners to sell US stocks (the reciprocal financial account surplus collapses), while Bitcoin simultaneously decouples and outperforms by absorbing global liquidity that has no home in US tech
“mathematically if Trump is serious about reducing the current account to zero then foreigners have to sell stocks. Period.”
90d +2.3% · 180d -8.4% · 1y -30.2%
The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes
2025-04-23
Big Tech
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
US tech exceptionalism narrative is structurally dead — DeepSeek proves AI capex need not be this large, data-center lease cancellations signal overcapacity, and leaders of the last cycle become laggards of the current one, analogous to Cisco in 2001
“we know what happened to Cisco. Down 90 something freaking percent.”
90d -23.6% · 180d -34.8% · 1y -44.0%
The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes
2025-04-23
GOLD
owns
Forward Guidance · video
Russia asset seizure in 2022 permanently repriced counterparty risk on Treasuries, driving central banks in the global south and current-account-surplus nations to structurally shift reserves into stateless gold, creating a durable sovereign bid
“I own lots of gold. That's a great trade.”
90d +4.1% · 180d +32.8% · 1y +42.0%
The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes