The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Arthur Hayes's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Arthur Hayes is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances —
bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
2025-09-24
Crypto Other
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
The investable layer in the stablecoin stack is not issuers but the SDK and accounting tooling that lets small businesses seamlessly accept stablecoin payments while handling fiat tax obligations via triple-entry bookkeeping
“I think that's a very investable area in the in the stable coin space”
Inevitable Money Printing Will Drive A “Debt Doom Loop” | Arthur Hayes
2025-09-24
HYPE
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Near-term Hyperliquid faces a pincer: a major token unlock coinciding with zero-fee competitors (Lighter, Astra) attacking its volume, which reduces revenue and thus buyback capacity, making the unlock overhang more dangerous
“if competitors offer zero, I can't buy back all these tokens that traders are worried about developers selling”
Inevitable Money Printing Will Drive A “Debt Doom Loop” | Arthur Hayes
2025-08-19
HYPE
owns
Wealthion · video
Hyperliquid's permissionless central-limit-order-book perp infrastructure will capture the decentralized derivatives market and democratize token launches, while a 95%-P&L buyback mechanism returns value directly to token holders
“hyperliquid is probably my number one bet there for decentralized exchange”
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Will Soar as Money Printing Won’t Stop!
2025-08-19
ENA
bullish
Wealthion · video
Ethena tokenizes a cash-and-carry basis trade to offer 5–10% yield on stablecoin deposits, making it the safest indigenous yield in crypto and a primary beneficiary as global stablecoin adoption channels trillions onto-chain
“Athena offers me 5 to 10%... probably the safest indigenous yield within crypto”
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Will Soar as Money Printing Won’t Stop!
2025-08-19
BITCOIN
bullish
Wealthion · video
Governments with printing presses invariably print money to win elections, making fiat debasement a structural constant and Bitcoin the best-performing asset hedge against it
“No government ever when they have the printing press refuses themselves the ability to print money”
90d -18.4% · 180d -39.1% · 1y -38.6%
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Will Soar as Money Printing Won’t Stop!
2025-04-23
Big Tech
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
US tech exceptionalism narrative is structurally dead — DeepSeek proves AI capex need not be this large, data-center lease cancellations signal overcapacity, and leaders of the last cycle become laggards of the current one, analogous to Cisco in 2001
“we know what happened to Cisco. Down 90 something freaking percent.”
90d -23.6% · 180d -34.8% · 1y -44.0%
The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes
2025-04-23
long BITCOIN / short Big Tech
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Reducing the US current account deficit mathematically forces foreigners to sell US stocks (the reciprocal financial account surplus collapses), while Bitcoin simultaneously decouples and outperforms by absorbing global liquidity that has no home in US tech
“mathematically if Trump is serious about reducing the current account to zero then foreigners have to sell stocks. Period.”
90d +2.3% · 180d -8.4% · 1y -30.2%
The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes
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