Investors / stance tracking
What Cameron Dawson is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCIO, NewEdge Wealth
32 dated public stances tracked since 2025-03-11, most recently 2026-10-29. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Cameron Dawson's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Cameron Dawson is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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32
tracked stances
23
themes
4
side flips
2026-10-29
last heard
Returns 90d +0.7% 60% correct · 5 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | BANKS | bullish | -4.9% | — | — |
| 2026-03-31 | short ENERGY / long Big Tech | pair | +18.7% | +12.6% | — |
| 2026-03-31 | SPX | bearish | -14.2% | -18.3% | — |
| 2025-12-11 | Big Tech | bearish | +2.7% | -13.4% | — |
| 2025-03-11 | CASH | bullish | +1.0% | +2.1% | +4.0% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Ai Infra — bullish2026-10-14 → bearish2026-10-23
Long Dur Treasuries — bullish2026-09-11 → bearish2026-10-13
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 3 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral | 2026-10-14 | |
| Ai Infra | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-23 | |
| BANKS | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-23 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-13 | |
| SOX | 2 | 1 bearish / 1 neutral | 2026-10-22 | |
| ASML | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-10-14 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
Healthcare has been one of the best-performing sectors throughout the recent rotation, with strong powerful trends still intact
“one area is healthcare, that's been probably one of the best sectors through all of this rotation”
Fox Business uncut 2026-10-29 14:12 ET (5 min)
Cyclical breakdown signals are emerging in industrials, with the group trading poorly and raising concerns about the macro cycle heading into the holidays
“industrials aren't trading so well”
Fox Business uncut 2026-10-29 14:12 ET (5 min)
Restaurants including Cracker Barrel are outperforming as consumers continue spending on dining even as other discretionary categories weaken, suggesting resilient lower-ticket consumer spend
“I've got folks in Cracker Bell, that's going very well”
Fox Business uncut 2026-10-29 14:12 ET (5 min)
2026-10-23
long INSURANCE SECTOR / short BANKS
pair
RiskReversal Media · video
Rotation from cyclical financials (banks) into defensive financials (insurance) reflects a broader market shift to safety-seeking driven by higher rates and AI fundamental concerns — this is not last-shall-be-first rotation but express rotation into defensives
“banks are breaking down and insurance is doing better”
The Grim Reaper Is Coming for Private Credit | Cameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth
2026-10-23
Ai Infra
bearish
RiskReversal Media · video
AI capex is dilutive to legacy high-ROIC monopoly businesses — hyperscaler ROICs have already fallen from 40%+ to mid-to-low 20s, and the neo-clouds whose compute capacity they depend on have ROIC below their cost of capital, creating further downward…
“their return on invested capital is lower than their cost of capital”
The Grim Reaper Is Coming for Private Credit | Cameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth
Investment banking faces a weak IPO pipeline (SpaceX distorts headline dollar figures while deal count is down), higher cost of capital is dampening debt issuance comps, and while lending looks OK it is a lagging indicator — the cyclical picture is…
“banks are breaking down and insurance is doing better”
The Grim Reaper Is Coming for Private Credit | Cameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth
2026-10-23
Private Credit
bearish
RiskReversal Media · video
CCC spreads have risen from 500-600bps to 1000bps driven by PE-backed companies under rate pressure, public BDC index just made new lows, and publicly traded private-credit asset managers are near lows — higher rates combined with slowing growth threaten…
“the publicly traded BDC index just made new lows”
The Grim Reaper Is Coming for Private Credit | Cameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth
2026-10-22
SOX
bearish
Bloomberg TV (uncut) · uncut_tv
Semiconductor stocks face further downside as earnings growth decelerates and expanding capacity normalizes exceptionally high margins, causing equities to peak before AI adoption does.
“The stocks are likely going to peak before the adoption peaks.”
Bloomberg TV uncut 2026-10-22 06:00 ET (30 min)
Said again: 2026-10-22 (Torsten Slok (newest))
Semiconductor earnings growth decelerates from ~100% in 2026 to ~50% in 2027, triggering multiple compression because semis trade with countercyclical multiples—the market is already signaling 2027 is peak, raising doubts about 2028 earnings power
“the stocks are likely going to peak before the adoption peaks”
Bloomberg Surveillance 10/22/2026
Lam Research breaking below its 200-day moving average signals the semiconductor peak-earnings narrative is being priced in with further multiple compression likely
“a name like Lam Research this morning, it's breaking below its 200-day moving average”
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 22nd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
2026-10-14
long GOOGL / short MSFT
pair
Bloomberg Surveillance · video
In a higher-for-longer rate environment GOOGL is insulated from AI capex risk because it carries negative net interest expense and net cash, while MSFT is more exposed given 40% of its cloud backlog depends on OpenAI — a frontier lab whose ongoing spending…
“look at Microsoft — 40% of the backlog was OpenAI”
Bloomberg Surveillance 10/14/2026
Semiconductor EBIT margins have expanded dramatically from 16% in 2025 to 42% in 2026 and are expected to reach 49% next year, but competition — especially in memory — threatens those gains, and since semis are 19% of the S&P 500 and drove 35% of 2026…
“softness in market leaders, mainly semis, is a red flag for the outlook into 27”
Bloomberg TV uncut 2026-10-14 06:00 ET (30 min)
Said again: 2026-10-14 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Weakness within the semiconductor space is concentrated in memory names where all the margin expansion occurred, and competition is the primary threat — Micron is significantly underperforming NVIDIA, signaling the memory subsector is the most vulnerable part…
“Micron's a lot weaker than NVIDIA”
Bloomberg TV uncut 2026-10-14 06:00 ET (30 min)
38% of S&P 500 names remain down 20%+ from all-time highs and institutional and hedge fund positioning is light, setting up earnings season as a catalyst for a broad rebound and potential rally blowoff in underowned names
“38% of the names in the S&P 500 are still down 20% from their all-time highs”
Bloomberg Surveillance 10/14/2026
ASML's monopoly market structure insulates it from the competitive dynamics hitting memory names — it cannot build enough machines to meet AI demand through 2027-28 — making it a structurally differentiated long within a weakening broader semiconductor tape
“ASML this morning holding up but that's a monopoly business that's a very different kind of market structure than what we are seeing on the memory side”
Bloomberg Surveillance 10/14/2026
2026-10-14
SOX
neutral
Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) · video
When a semiconductor index's price action fails to respond positively to strong underlying fundamentals, it is a signal to re-underwrite the thesis, as stocks historically peak before earnings and backlog deterioration becomes visible.
“it's always fascinating when a price of an asset doesn't do what you think it should based on the fundamentals”
AI Stocks Could Peak BEFORE Earnings Do — Watch These Warning Signs
2026-10-14
Ai Infra
bullish
Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) · video
Uptrends in AI infrastructure names remain intact with no topping formations yet formed, so the appropriate stance is to stay long while respecting those trends, but be ready to reassess immediately if trend character changes given the known risk that stocks…
“distinct uptrends in a lot of these names, you haven't put in topping formations”
AI Stocks Could Peak BEFORE Earnings Do — Watch These Warning Signs
2026-10-14
KOSPI
bearish
Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) · video
South Korea is the beta trade on AI infrastructure and KOSPI is trading like junk despite strong AI-positive catalysts (Micron's strong results and stable-margin guidance), suggesting the market may be pricing in an AI cycle peak ahead of reported…
“The Kospi trades like junk. It's a really, really interesting question of is that potentially the canary in the coal mine”
AI Stocks Could Peak BEFORE Earnings Do — Watch These Warning Signs
2026-10-13
QUALITY EQUITIES
bullish
Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) · video
As earnings growth decelerates from 35% to ~15% in 2027 and higher cost of capital picks off weaker credits, high-quality companies with strong balance sheets outperform through the cycle while junk and beta rallies fade
“sticking to our knitting on quality investing mostly within the equity markets continues to be our key focus through cycles”
It's A New World Order For Markets | Cameron Dawson
2026-10-13
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) · video
The 40-year bull market in bonds ended in 2022 and yields are now in a structural uptrend, so multi-year pressure on bond prices persists even as short-term overbought conditions allow tactical consolidation
“the downtrend in yields that persisted for 40 years from 1982 to 2022 is over. It is dead. It is over.”
It's A New World Order For Markets | Cameron Dawson
Said again: 2026-10-23 (RiskReversal Media)
2026-10-13
Investment Grade Credit
bullish
Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) · video
Higher yields provide historically attractive nominal compensation, so tactically extending slightly beyond cash to lock in current rates is prudent even within a structurally higher-yield environment
“maybe go a tiny bit out a little bit longer to lock in yields at these higher levels”
It's A New World Order For Markets | Cameron Dawson
2026-10-13
PRIVATE EQUITY SECONDARIES AND LOWER-MIDDLE-MARKET FUNDS
bullish
Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) · video
Elevated cost of capital suppresses capital velocity and traps large dry-powder pools at high valuations, creating a structural gap that smaller funds can exploit by purchasing secondaries and lower-middle-market deals at a discount to mega-fund bids
“the opportunity within private equity we think is to focus on smaller funds that are effectively selling into these big mega fund up market bids”
It's A New World Order For Markets | Cameron Dawson
2026-09-11
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Bloomberg The Close · video
10-year yield RSI is in overbought territory suggesting a tactical countertrend rally is likely even within a secular uptrend, and yields above 4.9% provide a meaningful buffer to absorb future price shocks
“If you look at an RSI on the 10-year yield, it looks like you're in overbought territory”
Stocks, Bonds Rise as US Core CPI Tops Forecasts Bolstering Case for a Rate Hike
After-tax muni yields for high-income taxable investors are reaching low double digits at current yield levels, making them attractively valued relative to risk assets and taxable fixed income alternatives
“after-tax muni yield...you're looking into the low double digits”
Stocks, Bonds Rise as US Core CPI Tops Forecasts Bolstering Case for a Rate Hike
Said again: 2026-10-13 (Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart))
The 1981–2020 secular bond bull market is dead and yields are now in a clear secular uptrend, with higher-for-longer rates pressuring valuations across all long-duration assets for years ahead
“the bond bull market is dead. Yields are no longer in a downtrend”
Stocks, Bonds Rise as US Core CPI Tops Forecasts Bolstering Case for a Rate Hike
Higher secular yields compress multiples while earnings growth slows sharply in 2027 to half the 2026 rate, with consensus numbers embedding optimistic margin expansion against tough comps — creating a materially lower equity return environment
“we have to lower our standards for equity returns in a world where yields are going up”
Stocks, Bonds Rise as US Core CPI Tops Forecasts Bolstering Case for a Rate Hike
2026-09-11
High Yield
bearish
Bloomberg The Close · video
High yield spreads at only 300bps offer inadequate compensation as Fed rate hikes remove liquidity, tighten financial conditions, and increase volatility — starting conditions are too easy for this to end well for risk assets
“you still have a high yield market that's at 300 basis points in high yield spread”
Stocks, Bonds Rise as US Core CPI Tops Forecasts Bolstering Case for a Rate Hike
Banks are one of the very few sectors with positive earnings revisions in 2026, while positioning is below the 10th percentile per Deutsche Bank — an under-owned sector with improving fundamentals is the classic setup; investment banking, trading, and IPO…
“positioning within financials is below the 10th percentile. So, nobody's there”
90d -4.9%
CNBC HOST GRILLS TOM LEE (06/25) Stock Market Analysis by Blue Cloud Trading
2026-03-31
short ENERGY / long Big Tech
pair
Bloomberg Open Interest · video
Energy and deep defensives are episodic beneficiaries of growth/inflation fear that should be faded on further outperformance, while Mag7/large-cap tech—down ~30% from peak multiples and approaching 2022 valuation lows—is the rotation target as the remaining…
“those are moves that you would like to fade and then start to pick up some areas that are more on sale”
90d +18.7% · 180d +12.6%
Markets Wrap Volatile Month: War Risks, $4 Gas, M&A Action | Open Interest 3/31/2026
At 19x forward P/E—still above the 80th historical percentile—with consensus baking in 16% EPS growth, tightening liquidity, and analysts still complacent about the energy-shock impact on growth, the index faces further multiple compression and estimate cuts.
“19 times is really not that cheap. It's still above the 80th percentile of historical readings”
90d -14.2% · 180d -18.3%
Markets Wrap Volatile Month: War Risks, $4 Gas, M&A Action | Open Interest 3/31/2026
2025-12-11
Big Tech
bearish
Tom Lee · video
MAG7 names are now competing in the same capital-intensive AI space rather than operating monopolistic businesses, implying lower returns on invested capital and potential for winners and losers rather than uniform gains
“a competitive business that's very capital intensive implies lower return on invested capital”
90d +2.7% · 180d -13.4%
Tom Lee: What’s in store for markets in 2026?
Quality stocks with proven cash flows and strong balance sheets are being indiscriminately sold alongside high-beta names, creating entry opportunities — unlike purely defensive utilities/staples, quality cyclicals should participate in the eventual rebound
“when they get sold on days like yesterday that certainly that's an opportunity to step in”
90d +1.0% · 180d +2.1% · 1y +4.0%
After the Selloff | Bloomberg Surveillance | March 11, 2025
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