Investors / stance tracking
What Capital Flows is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowFounder, Capital Flows Research
12 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-21, most recently 2025-04-18. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Capital Flows's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Capital Flows is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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12
tracked stances
7
themes
2
side flips
2025-04-18
last heard
Returns 90d +24.8% 64% correct · 11 calls · 180d +36.2% 55% correct · 11 calls · 1y +27.2% 64% correct · 11 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-18 | PLTR | bullish | +69.6% | +97.8% | +60.7% |
| 2025-04-18 | MP | bullish | +159.9% | +287.5% | +185.6% |
| 2025-04-18 | Long Dur Treasuries | bullish | +0.1% | +7.8% | +5.8% |
| 2025-04-18 | Big Tech | bearish | -29.9% | -39.4% | -50.1% |
| 2025-01-24 | SPX | bearish | +9.8% | -4.9% | -15.3% |
| 2025-01-24 | BITCOIN | bearish | +10.4% | -13.3% | +15.0% |
| 2024-12-07 | OIL | bearish | -1.3% | +1.7% | +1.0% |
| 2024-12-07 | Long Dur Treasuries | bullish | -2.6% | -5.5% | -1.9% |
| 2024-08-21 | long USTS / short USTS | other | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 2024-08-21 | SPX | bullish | +5.6% | +9.8% | +14.8% |
| 2024-08-21 | BITCOIN | bullish | +51.0% | +56.7% | +83.9% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BITCOIN | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2025-01-24 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 2 | 2 bullish | 2025-04-18 | |
| SPX | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2025-01-24 | |
| Big Tech | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-04-18 | |
| MP | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-04-18 | |
| OIL | 1 | 1 bearish | 2024-12-07 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2025-04-18
long LYC / short HK
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Rare earth supply-chain repricing driven by China export restrictions and tariffs favors non-Chinese rare earth producers on a relative basis, making Australian major Lynas a long against a comparable Chinese HK-listed producer
“LYC and then divided by the Hong Kong ticker... I just think this is really interesting”
US Assets Are Dead Money Without A Policy Shift | Weekly Roundup
2025-04-18
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Growth will suffer over the next 1-2 years as corporate earnings fall off due to tariffs, but without a massive deleveraging since profits rotate back to employee wages, creating a moderate bond rally environment
“I think we'll probably over the next year or two move up in bonds”
90d +0.1% · 180d +7.8% · 1y +5.8%
US Assets Are Dead Money Without A Policy Shift | Weekly Roundup
China restricting rare earth metal exports forces re-pricing of domestic US rare earth producers like MP, which becomes a multi-scenario positive-optionality trade as tariffs shift supply chains regardless of whether they stick or get reversed
“MP outperforming Mag 7, which is... MP is just the main US domestic company producing rare earth metals”
90d +159.9% · 180d +287.5% · 1y +185.6%
US Assets Are Dead Money Without A Policy Shift | Weekly Roundup
2025-04-18
Big Tech
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Mag 7 is transitioning to utility-like status with margins increasingly leveraged to commodity inputs (rare earth metals, semiconductors), and skilled labor moats are being commoditized, capping upside while supply-chain shifts create headwinds
“not really interested in getting long there... there's better trade expressions and directionality”
90d -29.9% · 180d -39.4% · 1y -50.1%
US Assets Are Dead Money Without A Policy Shift | Weekly Roundup
Government contract dollars keep flowing to Palantir as its market cap surpasses legacy contractors, and DOGE may clarify rather than cut spending, routing the same budget to more competitive firms
“more and more money keeps going to Palantir and their market cap is surpassing some of the other government contractors”
90d +69.6% · 180d +97.8% · 1y +60.7%
US Assets Are Dead Money Without A Policy Shift | Weekly Roundup
Higher rates are beginning to transmit into growth weakness over the next 3-4 months, the index is being propped up by Mag7 while the Russell remains below election-hedge levels, liquidity is contracting, and stretched valuations at late-2021 levels leave…
“these higher rates could begin to transmit into growth over the next three to four months”
90d +9.8% · 180d -4.9% · 1y -15.3%
Trump Vs The Fed: The Battle Over Rates, Growth, & Inflation | Weekly Roundup
Positive news spikes in Bitcoin are consistently sold hard and faded, signaling overextended positioning rather than genuine demand, making a short-term normalization trade asymmetric
“all of these spikes that we've seen up on all this quote unquote positive news they just get sold super hard and they just get faded”
90d +10.4% · 180d -13.3% · 1y +15.0%
Trump Vs The Fed: The Battle Over Rates, Growth, & Inflation | Weekly Roundup
2024-12-07
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
The 2-year approaching Fed funds was pricing in hikes that will not materialize; taking the other side of that mispriced extreme with stops above hike territory captures the reversion as growth moderates toward 2% real GDP and inflation drifts lower
“market was mispricing Bonds in my view when the two-year went all the way up almost to Fed funds”
90d -2.6% · 180d -5.5% · 1y -1.9%
The Post-Payrolls Debate: Growth, Inflation, And Rate Cuts | Weekly Roundup
Massive structural supply surplus, every geopolitical risk premium gets sold hard (couldn't break $77 on the last spike), Trump administration adds more supply, and growth normalizing from 2023 levels removes demand tailwind — targeting $50
“I think crude is moving to 50”
90d -1.3% · 180d +1.7% · 1y +1.0%
The Post-Payrolls Debate: Growth, Inflation, And Rate Cuts | Weekly Roundup
2024-08-21
long USTS / short USTS
other
Forward Guidance · video
The yield curve will bull-steepen as Fed rate cuts pull the short end lower while the long end lags — the curve needs to un-invert before institutional capital is incentivized to extend duration away from T-bills.
“the bull steepener is just much more likely”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
Generating Alpha in Macro | Capital Flows
GDP is positive while the Fed is beginning a rate-cutting cycle — the opposite of 2022 — making a persistent bear market highly unlikely, and the remaining positioning unwind from extreme net-short levels provides a further tailwind.
“anytime you have positioning getting blown out in a regime where the macro doesn't justify it, you just always want to take the other side”
90d +5.6% · 180d +9.8% · 1y +14.8%
Generating Alpha in Macro | Capital Flows
Idiosyncratic supply overhangs (Mt. Gox, Germany seizures) are finite and being absorbed by a macro environment where both the price of money (rates falling) and quantity of money (Fed cutting) are turning accommodative, giving Bitcoin its historical role as…
“over the next 12 months there's a very high probability that we'll move up and hit around 100K”
90d +51.0% · 180d +56.7% · 1y +83.9%
Generating Alpha in Macro | Capital Flows
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