What Capital Flows is saying
Founder, Capital Flows Research
6 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-21, most recently 2025-04-18. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Capital Flows's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Capital Flows is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
2025-04-18
long LYC / short HK
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Rare earth supply-chain repricing driven by China export restrictions and tariffs favors non-Chinese rare earth producers on a relative basis, making Australian major Lynas a long against a comparable Chinese HK-listed producer
“LYC and then divided by the Hong Kong ticker... I just think this is really interesting”
US Assets Are Dead Money Without A Policy Shift | Weekly Roundup
2024-12-07
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
The 2-year approaching Fed funds was pricing in hikes that will not materialize; taking the other side of that mispriced extreme with stops above hike territory captures the reversion as growth moderates toward 2% real GDP and inflation drifts lower
“market was mispricing Bonds in my view when the two-year went all the way up almost to Fed funds”
90d -2.6% · 180d -5.5% · 1y -1.8%
The Post-Payrolls Debate: Growth, Inflation, And Rate Cuts | Weekly Roundup
2024-12-07
OIL
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Massive structural supply surplus, every geopolitical risk premium gets sold hard (couldn't break $77 on the last spike), Trump administration adds more supply, and growth normalizing from 2023 levels removes demand tailwind — targeting $50
“I think crude is moving to 50”
90d -1.3% · 180d +1.7% · 1y +1.0%
The Post-Payrolls Debate: Growth, Inflation, And Rate Cuts | Weekly Roundup
2024-08-21
SPX
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
GDP is positive while the Fed is beginning a rate-cutting cycle — the opposite of 2022 — making a persistent bear market highly unlikely, and the remaining positioning unwind from extreme net-short levels provides a further tailwind.
“anytime you have positioning getting blown out in a regime where the macro doesn't justify it, you just always want to take the other side”
90d +5.6% · 180d +9.8% · 1y +14.8%
Generating Alpha in Macro | Capital Flows
2024-08-21
BITCOIN
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Idiosyncratic supply overhangs (Mt. Gox, Germany seizures) are finite and being absorbed by a macro environment where both the price of money (rates falling) and quantity of money (Fed cutting) are turning accommodative, giving Bitcoin its historical role as…
“over the next 12 months there's a very high probability that we'll move up and hit around 100K”
90d +51.0% · 180d +56.7% · 1y +83.9%
Generating Alpha in Macro | Capital Flows
2024-08-21
long USTS / short USTS
other
Forward Guidance · video
The yield curve will bull-steepen as Fed rate cuts pull the short end lower while the long end lags — the curve needs to un-invert before institutional capital is incentivized to extend duration away from T-bills.
“the bull steepener is just much more likely”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
Generating Alpha in Macro | Capital Flows
Idea Scout Weekly
Every Sunday: who said what across the tape we track —
845 voices, 2,419 episodes and articles —
with side-flips and points of disagreement called out. Free.
How we track it.
Free · double opt-in · unsubscribe in one click