Investors / stance tracking
What Chris Cole (Artemis) is saying
Founder & CIO, Artemis Capital Management
38 dated public stances tracked since 2017-09-01, most recently 2022-06-21. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Chris Cole (Artemis)'s public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Chris Cole (Artemis) is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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38
tracked stances
16
themes
0
side flips
2022-06-21
last heard
Returns 90d -1.0% (n=23) · 180d -3.9% (n=23) · 1y -1.1% (n=23)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VOL | 8 | 8 bullish | 2022-06-21 | |
| GOLD | 4 | 4 bullish | 2022-02-24 | |
| USTS | 4 | 4 bearish | 2021-06-02 | |
| Commodities Broad | 3 | 3 bullish | 2022-02-24 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 2 | 2 bearish | 2021-06-02 | |
| Managed Futures | 2 | 2 bullish | 2022-02-24 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2022-06-21
VOL
bullish
Chris Cole · video
Currency vol has been paying out where equity vol has not because stagflation suppresses the equity vol jump factor while macro dislocations drive FX and commodity volatility
“you're getting a payout in commodity ball you're getting a payout in currency ball and rate fall but you're not getting the payout in equity ball”
90d -25.3% · 180d -38.4% · 1y -72.1%
Keeping it Simple on the Road | Ep. 2 I'll Take Two, Utah... Two!
2022-02-24
Managed Futures
bullish
Chris Cole · video
CTAs perform well during stagflation and inflation regimes, providing diversification precisely when equity and bond allocations suffer, making them a necessary thematic bucket in a portfolio designed for multiple outcomes.
“CTAs do well in periods of stagflation and inflation”
90d +16.4% · 180d +18.9% · 1y +14.2%
Artemis Capital’s Chris Cole Lays Bare the Forces Destabilizing Markets
2022-02-24
GOLD
bullish
Chris Cole · video
In a world of compressed cycles, stagflation risk, and a Fed trapped between inflation and deflation, gold and commodities serve as a fiat-alternative bucket that performs across multiple adverse macro regimes.
“go bold with your gold, go bold with your gold”
90d -2.3% · 180d -8.1% · 1y -5.0%
Artemis Capital’s Chris Cole Lays Bare the Forces Destabilizing Markets
2022-02-24
PASSIVE INVESTING / TARGET-DATE FUNDS SYSTEMIC RISK
bullish
Chris Cole · video
Passive investing has crossed a tipping point where it amplifies volatility in both directions and crowds out active price discovery, making markets structurally fragile and prone to power-law-violating dislocations.
“passive investing is part of the story but there's a much much larger story”
Artemis Capital’s Chris Cole Lays Bare the Forces Destabilizing Markets
2022-02-24
VOL
bullish
Chris Cole · video
Passive investing has crossed the threshold where it amplifies volatility in both directions and reduces active management's ability to price intrinsic value, making markets structurally fragile
“passive investing amplifies volatility...it's an amplifier to markets moving down and up”
90d -4.3% · 180d -26.5% · 1y -49.4%
Artemis Capital’s Chris Cole Lays Bare the Forces Destabilizing Markets
2022-02-24
TSLA
bearish
Chris Cole · video
Tesla's market cap exceeds the combined value of all other automakers despite having a fraction of their sales, reflecting faith-based magical thinking rather than intrinsic cash-flow valuation.
“is Tesla worth more than every other car company combined...that's magical thinking”
90d +17.7% · 180d -11.1% · 1y +26.2%
Artemis Capital’s Chris Cole Lays Bare the Forces Destabilizing Markets
2022-02-24
Commodities Broad
bullish
Chris Cole · video
Commodities serve as a fiat-alternative hedge bucket alongside gold in a regime-diversified portfolio, particularly relevant as inflation becomes embedded in consumer psychology and supply chains remain disrupted
“fiat alternatives bucket like gold and commodities”
90d +18.9% · 180d +11.7% · 1y -0.1%
Artemis Capital’s Chris Cole Lays Bare the Forces Destabilizing Markets
2022-02-24
long VOL / long Managed Futures / long GOLD / long EQUITIES (+1 legs)
basket
Chris Cole · video
A regime-diversified 'Dragon Portfolio' allocating across long volatility, trend-following CTAs, fiat alternatives, equities, and bonds outperforms because each bucket thrives under a different macro outcome—deflation, inflation, stagflation, or…
“you diversify based on market regimes potential outcomes—you're going to be fine through whatever happens”
90d +0.6% · 180d -2.1% · 1y -5.0%
Artemis Capital’s Chris Cole Lays Bare the Forces Destabilizing Markets
2021-12-02
Commodities Broad
bullish
Chris Cole · video
An 18% allocation to commodity trend strategies captures returns during inflationary regimes that destroy traditional stock/bond portfolios, making it a necessary diversifier.
“18 commodity trend and this is a type of trading or type of investing where you follow trends in commodities”
90d +31.6% · 180d +47.8% · 1y +28.8%
Own 19% Gold in Your Portfolio! Here's why?
2021-12-02
GOLD
bullish
Chris Cole · video
A 19% allocation to physical gold is a core component of the Dragon Portfolio, which outperforms traditional 60/40 portfolios across all macro regimes (inflationary, deflationary, growth, contraction) over a 90-year backtest.
“the dragon portfolio does extremely well regardless of whether or not we're in a serpent cycle or a hawk cycle”
90d +8.8% · 180d +3.6% · 1y +1.2%
Own 19% Gold in Your Portfolio! Here's why?
2021-12-02
VOL
bullish
Chris Cole · video
A 21% allocation to long volatility strategies is essential in the Dragon Portfolio because it provides returns during crisis periods that other asset classes cannot, smoothing performance across all economic regimes.
“the dragon portfolio does extremely well regardless of whether or not we're in a serpent cycle or a hawk cycle”
90d -3.1% · 180d -16.9% · 1y -44.8%
Own 19% Gold in Your Portfolio! Here's why?
2021-06-02
USTS
bearish
Chris Cole · video
The 60/40 portfolio is dangerously concentrated in equity-correlated risk and relies on falling interest rates for bond diversification, making it structurally vulnerable to both stagflation and deflation regimes
“recency bias is a systemic risk...the expectation that the next 40 years will look like the last four years”
90d -2.5% · 180d -0.9% · 1y +9.2%
Chris Cole, Artemis Capital Management - You Want To Diversify Based On How Assets...
2021-06-02
VOL
bullish
Chris Cole · video
Long volatility strategies perform in deflationary/crisis regimes and provide liquidity when capital is scarce, dramatically improving risk-adjusted performance of a total portfolio via regime diversification
“long volatility is a true diversifier...dramatically improves the risk-adjusted performance of the total portfolio”
Chris Cole, Artemis Capital Management - You Want To Diversify Based On How Assets...
2021-06-02
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Chris Cole · video
Fixed income remains a deflation hedge but is increasingly neutered as rates approach zero, making it the weakest of the five Dragon Portfolio components in the current environment
“if I had to shoot one in 2021...bonds yeah”
Chris Cole, Artemis Capital Management - You Want To Diversify Based On How Assets...
2021-06-02
GOLD
bullish
Chris Cole · video
Gold acts as a fiat alternative and true portfolio diversifier, outperforming during periods of currency debasement and providing regime diversification unavailable from stocks or bonds
“gold is a true diversifier”
90d -5.1% · 180d -6.8% · 1y -2.5%
Chris Cole, Artemis Capital Management - You Want To Diversify Based On How Assets...
2021-06-02
PRIVATE EQUITY
bearish
Chris Cole · video
Private equity is a secular-growth equity substitute—not a diversifier—that requires cheap debt and rising markets, carries implicit short-volatility exposure, and is now priced at or above public market valuations eliminating its historical discount
“private equity in essence requires inexpensive debt and rising markets—that's a secular growth strategy”
Chris Cole, Artemis Capital Management - You Want To Diversify Based On How Assets...
2020-12-14
BITCOIN
owns
Chris Cole · video
Bitcoin behaves like an option with convex, non-linear payoffs skewed to the right tail of the return distribution, functioning as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation in the same way gold does during inflationary or hyperinflationary regimes
“I have a small exposure to bitcoin in my personal portfolio which act like options they have an option convexity component particularly on the right tail”
The Investment Portfolio that Grows and Preserves Wealth for 100 Years (w/ Jason Buck & Chris Cole)
2020-12-14
long EQUITIES / long USTS / long VOL / long GOLD (+1 legs)
other
Chris Cole · video
A five-asset 'dragon portfolio' of equal-weight equities, bonds, long volatility, gold, and commodity trend has beaten every major portfolio construct over 100 years by pairing convergent/mean-reversion assets (stocks, bonds) with divergent/secular-change…
“a portfolio that had what I call the dragon portfolio has beaten almost every other portfolio you can imagine from 60/40 stock bonds to risk parity”
90d +3.8% · 180d +10.7% · 1y +11.3%
The Investment Portfolio that Grows and Preserves Wealth for 100 Years (w/ Jason Buck & Chris Cole)
2020-03-12
GOLD
bullish
Chris Cole · video
Gold is a long volatility / counter-trend asset that performs during Fiat devaluation and secular disruption, and should be boldly sized at ~20% of a portfolio rather than the conventional 1-2% allocation
“gold shouldn't be 1% or 2% it should be 20 percent”
90d +8.7% · 180d +20.5% · 1y +7.4%
How to Build a Recession-Proof Investment Portfolio (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole)
2020-03-12
VOL
bullish
Chris Cole · video
Explicitly long volatility through buying optionality has historically been positive carry through deflationary crises (1930s) and inflationary regimes (1970s), providing portfolio insurance at lower cost than passive tail-risk hedging, and should represent…
“long volatility truly buying a straddle buying puts and calls would have been positive carry for decades”
How to Build a Recession-Proof Investment Portfolio (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole)
2020-03-12
Commodities Broad
bullish
Chris Cole · video
Commodity trend strategies are counter-trend to equities and uncorrelated to bonds, and historically generated strong returns during both the inflationary 1970s and the deflationary 1930s, making them a key diversifier warranting ~20% portfolio allocation
“commodity trending…was particularly effective in the 1970s during that inflationary period and was effective in the 1930s”
90d +3.2% · 180d +7.1% · 1y +45.5%
How to Build a Recession-Proof Investment Portfolio (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole)
2020-03-12
USTS
bearish
Chris Cole · video
The 60/40 (or 70/20 equity-bond) portfolio is dangerously concentrated in secular-growth assets; 90% of its 90-year returns came from just 22 years (1984-2007) and it will likely deliver only ~4-5% returns going forward, far below the 7.25% pension target…
“90% of the returns of a 60-40 stock bond portfolio came from the 22 years between 84 and 2007”
90d -3.0% · 180d -3.6% · 1y +2.7%
How to Build a Recession-Proof Investment Portfolio (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole)
2020-03-12
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Chris Cole · video
With rates near the zero bound, bonds can no longer provide the same cushion they did in prior crises; to replicate the 2008 rate-cut benefit the Fed would need to cut to -1.5%, making long-duration bonds a structurally impaired diversifier in a 60/40…
“to get the same benefit…the Fed would have to lower interest rates to negative 1.5%”
90d -2.5% · 180d -4.7% · 1y +12.4%
How to Build a Recession-Proof Investment Portfolio (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole)
2020-03-12
PRIVATE EQUITY AND VENTURE CAPITAL
bearish
Chris Cole · video
Private equity and VC are correlated secular-growth assets that move in concert with public equities and historically lose money during recessions, making their classification as 'diversifiers' by pension funds empirically wrong and dangerously misleading
“I cringe when I hear leaders of very large pension systems say that private equity and venture capital are diversifiers”
How to Build a Recession-Proof Investment Portfolio (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole)
2020-03-12
BUY-THE-DIP EQUITY STRATEGY
bearish
Chris Cole · video
Buy-the-dip is effectively a short-gamma/short-volatility strategy that goes bankrupt three times over a 90-year back-test; its recent outperformance is entirely a function of central bank QE and is not a robust long-term approach
“buy the dip…goes bankrupt three times bankrupts…loses all of its money three times over a 90 year history”
How to Build a Recession-Proof Investment Portfolio (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole)
2020-03-12
TSLA
bearish
Chris Cole · video
Tesla's price action is unjustifiable on fundamentals and its vol term structure is dramatically steeper than the VIX, signaling speculative mania reminiscent of 1999/2007, indicative of dangerous leverage-driven melt-up conditions
“Tesla's vol term structure was dramatically steeper than the vol term structure of the VIX”
90d -82.9% · 180d -100.0% · 1y -100.0%
How to Build a Recession-Proof Investment Portfolio (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole)
2020-03-12
BUY-THE-DIP STRATEGY
bearish
Chris Cole · video
Buy-the-dip is a short-gamma strategy that has gone bankrupt three times over 90 years of history and only outperformed in the QE era driven by central bank mean-reversion support, making it structurally fragile
“buy the dip goes bankrupt three times over a 90 year history”
How to Build a Recession-Proof Investment Portfolio (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole)
2020-03-12
PRIVATE EQUITY AND VENTURE CAPITAL AS PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFIERS
bearish
Chris Cole · video
Private equity and VC are correlated secular growth assets that historically lose money in broad recessions — they are NOT diversifiers as pension funds claim — so layering them onto an equity-heavy portfolio compounds secular growth risk rather than hedging…
“these asset classes are correlated to the business cycle so they move in concert with publicly traded equity”
How to Build a Recession-Proof Investment Portfolio (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole)
2020-03-12
long EQUITIES / long USTS / long GOLD / long VOL (+1 legs)
basket
Chris Cole · video
An equal 20/20/20/20/20 allocation across stocks, bonds, gold, long volatility, and commodity trend outperforms the conventional 60/40 or 70/30 portfolio across every generational cycle — deflationary and reflationary — based on 90 years of back-tested data…
“stocks and bonds can make up the other remaining 20 and 20”
90d +5.0% · 180d +10.4% · 1y +16.7%
How to Build a Recession-Proof Investment Portfolio (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole)
2019-03-08
VOL
bullish
video
Passive investing has crossed 50% of the market, making active investors too small to correct mispricings; the resulting large unstable 'drunk' market amplifies volatility in both right and left tails, making long-vol strategies likely to outperform…
“as the market becomes more and more passive volatility will amplify and market instability will amplify”
90d -16.2% · 180d -20.4% · 1y +13.5%
2019-03-08
SPX
bullish
video
Fed pivot away from rate hikes (Powell stopping hikes) has driven a sharp YTD rally with SPX running at roughly a Sharpe ratio of 5, and near-term models show a benign vol environment with risks skewed more toward markets exploding upward than downward over…
“risks are more skewed towards markets exploding upwards”
90d +4.2% · 180d +8.1% · 1y +2.6%
2018-02-06
USTS
bearish
Chris Cole · video
Stocks and bonds have been anti-correlated only 11% of the time across 120 years of history and have declined together in multiple historical episodes (1906–1912, 1970s); the current anti-correlation regime is an artifact of a 40-year rate decline that cannot…
“a 60/40 stock bond portfolio becomes 100% looser and a risk parity portfolio becomes a leveraged loser”
Taking The Long Road With Volatility (w/ Chris Cole) | Interview | Real Vision™
2018-02-06
Managed Futures
bullish
Chris Cole · video
Strategies with long-volatility return profiles — managed futures CTAs and contrarian macro funds — are being abandoned due to recent mediocre performance precisely when their convexity properties are most needed as the multi-decade central-bank-suppressed…
“I feel like institutions should be running to them”
Taking The Long Road With Volatility (w/ Chris Cole) | Interview | Real Vision™
2018-02-06
VOL
bullish
Chris Cole · video
Central banks have suppressed realized volatility through preemptive strikes on market risk while transmuting rather than destroying underlying tail risk, making long convexity positions systematically mispriced relative to the true magnitude of systemic…
“we are biased towards convexity we're biased towards trying to create returns portfolio changing returns in a period like 2008”
Taking The Long Road With Volatility (w/ Chris Cole) | Interview | Real Vision™
2018-02-06
short VOL / long TAIL RISK CONVEXITY — LONG GAMMA, D-GAMMA-D-VOL POSITIONS
hedge
Chris Cole · video
Sell first-order volatility effects — near-term uncertainty priced into skew and implied correlations currently at the 90th percentile — to finance long higher-order convexity (gamma, d-gamma-d-vol) that pays off nonlinearly in severe dislocations, creating…
“sell that first-order effect which is represented by the uncertainty and recycle it into tail risk”
Taking The Long Road With Volatility (w/ Chris Cole) | Interview | Real Vision™
2017-09-01
EQUITIES (BROAD MARKET)
bearish
Chris Cole · video
EV/EBITDA, price-to-sales, and CAPE ratios are at levels historically associated with triggering prior depressions, while underlying tail risk is masked by suppressed volatility and central bank intervention
“stocks are at levels that have triggered previous depressions and beyond”
Taking The Long Road With Volatility (w/ Chris Cole) | Interview | Real Vision™
2017-09-01
VOL
bullish
Chris Cole · video
Volatility persistence at 88-year lows while a debt supercycle, sovereign balance sheet expansion, EU breakup risk, and rising populism create massive hidden tail risk being artificially suppressed by central bank competitive devaluation — both right and left…
“there needs to be sort of a coverage of both right and left tail risk in both the scenario”
Taking The Long Road With Volatility (w/ Chris Cole) | Interview | Real Vision™
2017-09-01
USTS
bearish
Chris Cole · video
Bond yields at lowest levels in human civilization combined with sovereign debt at record highs limits further central bank efficacy and creates asymmetric downside risk in fixed income as the debt supercycle unwinds
“bond yields are at the lowest levels in human civilization”
Taking The Long Road With Volatility (w/ Chris Cole) | Interview | Real Vision™
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