Investors / stance tracking
What Chris Mayer is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowPortfolio Manager, Woodlock House Family Capital
35 dated public stances tracked since 2019-07-25, most recently 2026-09-22. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Chris Mayer's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Chris Mayer is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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35
tracked stances
15
themes
0
side flips
2026-09-22
last heard
Returns 90d +8.4% 71% correct · 24 calls · 180d +17.4% 71% correct · 24 calls · 1y +21.3% 75% correct · 24 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-07 | TOI | bullish | +76.6% | +162.8% | +122.1% |
| 2025-04-07 | HEI | owns | +37.7% | +36.2% | +16.6% |
| 2025-04-07 | CPRT | bullish | -9.9% | -18.0% | -38.9% |
| 2025-04-07 | BRO | bullish | -4.2% | -15.9% | -40.7% |
| 2023-08-21 | CPRT | owns | +16.9% | +11.6% | +19.5% |
| 2023-08-21 | BRO | owns | +2.7% | +15.9% | +44.6% |
| 2023-04-08 | TOI | bullish | -19.0% | +96.6% | +129.9% |
| 2023-04-08 | ODFL | bullish | +10.6% | +20.7% | +34.8% |
| 2023-04-08 | CPRT | bullish | +17.5% | +17.5% | +50.1% |
| 2022-08-21 | CPRT | owns | +2.7% | +9.7% | +39.4% |
| 2022-05-10 | ODFL | bullish | +12.1% | +3.1% | +15.2% |
| 2022-05-10 | HEI | owns | +16.5% | +15.8% | +26.2% |
| 2022-05-10 | CPRT | owns | +17.8% | +4.2% | +46.0% |
| 2022-05-10 | BRO | bullish | +13.4% | -2.3% | +14.8% |
| 2021-11-08 | CPRT | bullish | -16.9% | -29.5% | -26.2% |
| 2021-08-19 | TOI | bullish | -9.8% | -36.4% | -32.5% |
| 2021-08-19 | HEI | bullish | +14.8% | +12.8% | +28.3% |
| 2021-08-19 | BRO | bullish | +14.0% | +17.5% | +19.1% |
| 2021-06-21 | VIV | bullish | -13.0% | -4.8% | +9.0% |
| 2020-06-30 | long IHG / long MAR / long HLT | basket | +17.7% | +46.0% | +57.9% |
| 2020-06-30 | HEI | bullish | +5.8% | +32.5% | +40.1% |
| 2020-06-30 | BRO | owns | +10.3% | +13.0% | +31.4% |
| 2019-07-25 | HHC | bullish | -17.2% | -5.1% | -59.5% |
| 2019-07-25 | AL | bullish | +5.3% | +14.4% | -35.3% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPRT | 6 | 6 bullish | 2025-04-07 | |
| BRO | 5 | 5 bullish | 2025-04-07 | |
| CSU | 4 | 4 bullish | 2026-09-22 | |
| HEI | 4 | 4 bullish | 2025-04-07 | |
| TOI | 3 | 3 bullish | 2025-04-07 | |
| EXOR | 2 | 2 bullish | 2021-06-21 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-09-22
CSU
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Constellation Software continues reinvesting cash flows at historically high rates — the AI-disruption narrative is unprovable and unconfirmed in the financials, while the real kill signal (cash piling up, declining incremental returns, executive turnover)…
“they're reinvesting capital now at a higher rate than they ever have”
Chris Mayer Returns: The Investor’s Odyssey, AI as a Junior Analyst & Life on a Public Board
Copart's salvage vehicle auction network has a tremendous competitive moat — driven by land holdings, buyer/seller network effects, and high switching costs — that supports long-term compounding.
“Copart — also a tremendous moat around that business”
90d -9.9% · 180d -18.0% · 1y -38.9%
The Hidden Fingerprints of 100 Baggers | Chris Mayer on How to Find Them Before Everyone Else
2025-04-07
BRO
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Brown & Brown is an insurance brokerage with durable business characteristics that Mayer expects to perform well across a variety of macro environments, making it a core long-term hold.
“I'd have Brown and Brown in there — insurance broker”
90d -4.2% · 180d -15.9% · 1y -40.7%
The Hidden Fingerprints of 100 Baggers | Chris Mayer on How to Find Them Before Everyone Else
2025-04-07
CSU
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Constellation Software is a proven vertical market software serial acquirer with disciplined capital allocation, unchanged share count since IPO, and management incentives structured around open-market share purchases rather than dilutive grants.
“I'd have the vertical market software — Constellation and Topicus”
The Hidden Fingerprints of 100 Baggers | Chris Mayer on How to Find Them Before Everyone Else
2025-04-07
SWEDISH SERIAL ACQUIRERS
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Swedish serial acquirers (e.g. Lifco and peers) employ disciplined per-subsidiary incentive metrics like profit-over-working-capital, build deep management benches for multi-decade succession, and compound capital without share dilution.
“I'd have the Swedish serial acquirers that I like so much”
The Hidden Fingerprints of 100 Baggers | Chris Mayer on How to Find Them Before Everyone Else
HEICO's aviation aftermarket parts business (MRO/PMA) is protected by a strong and durable competitive moat, making it a long-term compounder worth holding through any macro backdrop.
“I own Heico with its aviation business and great moat around it”
90d +37.7% · 180d +36.2% · 1y +16.6%
The Hidden Fingerprints of 100 Baggers | Chris Mayer on How to Find Them Before Everyone Else
2025-04-07
TOI
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Topicus shares the Constellation Software vertical market software compounder model — disciplined serial acquisition of niche software businesses with high retention and recurring revenue.
“I'd have the vertical market software — Constellation and Topicus”
90d +76.6% · 180d +162.8% · 1y +122.1%
The Hidden Fingerprints of 100 Baggers | Chris Mayer on How to Find Them Before Everyone Else
Copart's strategy of owning (vs. leasing) land for salvage operations created compounding incremental advantages over rival IAA, and its online marketplace now enjoys durable network effects that make the lead virtually uncatchable, with additional runway…
“I probably the biggest winner that I still have in the portfolio might be Copart”
90d +16.9% · 180d +11.6% · 1y +19.5%
Chris Mayer Talks 100 Baggers & Value Investing Strategies | Chris Mayer Interview
2023-08-21
CONSTELLATION SOFTWARE
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Constellation's programmatic approach to acquiring small vertical-market software companies—with a disciplined criteria box, a vast comparable database, and operational expertise—produces durable M&A returns unlike the episodic, debt-heavy deals that…
“they've got it down to a process—they're looking very specifically at vertical market software companies”
Chris Mayer Talks 100 Baggers & Value Investing Strategies | Chris Mayer Interview
2023-08-21
BRO
owns
Chris Mayer · video
Brown and Brown is a rare third-generation founder-family-run insurance broker whose CEO has deep skin in the game, aligning capital allocation decisions with minority shareholders over long holding periods
“another company I've had in the portfolio for a long time, Brown and Brown”
90d +2.7% · 180d +15.9% · 1y +44.6%
Chris Mayer Talks 100 Baggers & Value Investing Strategies | Chris Mayer Interview
Copart's real-estate moat and network effects compound while its only major competitor (IAA) agreed to be acquired by Ritchie Brothers — wounded, distracted, and at a structural disadvantage that would take years and billions to close
“you clearly have a wounded and distracted competitor that is at a structural disadvantage at this point”
90d +17.5% · 180d +17.5% · 1y +50.1%
100 Baggers: Stocks that Return 100-1 w/ Chris Mayer (TIP543)
Said again: 2023-05-10 (Chris Mayer)
2023-04-08
CSU
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Constellation Software's decentralized M&A machine, strict hurdle-rate discipline, and return-on-invested-capital incentive system have produced decades of free-cash-flow-per-share compounding with no share dilution, and a database of 100,000+ acquisition…
“it's a supremely rational place, really driven by return on invested capital and growth rates at the heart of the incentives”
100 Baggers: Stocks that Return 100-1 w/ Chris Mayer (TIP543)
Said again: 2023-06-12 (Chris Mayer)
2023-04-08
TOI
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Topicus is a mini-Constellation focused on Europe, where vertical-market software M&A is less competitive than North America and local-language/local-market advantages give it a structural edge
“I think Topicus will be a good one. I think it's very much like a mini Constellation”
90d -19.0% · 180d +96.6% · 1y +129.9%
100 Baggers: Stocks that Return 100-1 w/ Chris Mayer (TIP543)
Said again: 2023-06-12 (Chris Mayer)
Old Dominion's owner-operator Congdon family culture drives counter-cyclical investment in distribution centers that competitors skip during downturns, compounding market share gains that are difficult to reverse
“they have continued to invest in opening new distribution centers even when the trucking markets are weak and where their competitors don't”
90d +10.6% · 180d +20.7% · 1y +34.8%
100 Baggers: Stocks that Return 100-1 w/ Chris Mayer (TIP543)
Copart's combination of network effects and a physically embedded land network creates a near-duopoly moat that is extremely difficult to replicate, supporting durable above-average returns on capital over a long horizon
“company i have in the portfolio...they have a lot of land...network effects but it's also rooted in this physical network...very hard to replicate...basically two players”
90d +2.7% · 180d +9.7% · 1y +39.4%
How to Find 100 Baggers | Interview with Chris Mayer
Said again: 2022-08-28 (Chris Mayer)
Copart's decades of investment in owned service centers creates a near-impossible-to-replicate physical salvage network whose density and efficiency compound with scale, producing rising returns on capital, backed by ~10% insider ownership and a debt-free…
“I still own both of them they're still good sized positions and I probably own them for years and years”
90d +17.8% · 180d +4.2% · 1y +46.0%
The Building Blocks of a 100-Bagger with Chris Mayer, Author of 100-Baggers
2022-05-10
BRO
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Brown & Brown is the best-in-class insurance broker because ~35% of shares are held by the Brown family, insiders, and employees, combined with low leverage, distinguishing it from peers Aon and Gallagher despite all having performed well
“35 percent of the is inside you know held by the brown family other insiders and employees”
90d +13.4% · 180d -2.3% · 1y +14.8%
The Building Blocks of a 100-Bagger with Chris Mayer, Author of 100-Baggers
Heico's disciplined model of small acquisitions with retained management equity and ~14% Mendelssohn family ownership drives repeated high-return capital deployment on a pristine balance sheet, qualifying it as a proven serial compounder
“I bought heiko and copart... I still own both of them”
90d +16.5% · 180d +15.8% · 1y +26.2%
The Building Blocks of a 100-Bagger with Chris Mayer, Author of 100-Baggers
Old Dominion's strategic multi-decade investment in owned service centers (while peers leased) built an almost impossible-to-replicate physical LTL network that drives returns on invested capital far above peers and sustainable ~1% annual market-share gains
“old dominion is taking market share like a rate of one percent a year”
90d +12.1% · 180d +3.1% · 1y +15.2%
The Building Blocks of a 100-Bagger with Chris Mayer, Author of 100-Baggers
Copart's irreplicable land holdings (zoned salvage yards in markets like LA that can't be permitted today) and a two-player duopoly controlling 80%+ of the salvage market create a physical moat that sustains high ROIC and ongoing reinvestment at attractive…
“it is very very very difficult to replicate what they've done impossible”
90d -16.9% · 180d -29.5% · 1y -26.2%
Perfect Recipe for Retiring Rich Show With Christopher W. Mayer | Bhuvan Gupta | Chris Mayer
2021-08-19
BRO
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Brown & Brown is a family-controlled insurance brokerage with 50+ years of consistent ~12% returns on capital, disciplined balance sheet management, opportunistic buybacks at dislocations, and a proven acquisition model that retains seller-management through…
“I love those kinds of stories”
90d +14.0% · 180d +17.5% · 1y +19.1%
Legendary asset manager Chris Mayer’s investment C.O.D.E reveals his favorite stocks to buy now
2021-08-19
CSU
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Constellation Software is a Berkshire-style holding company acquiring hundreds of vertical market software businesses at 25-30% reinvestment hurdles, with minimal leverage, aligned incentives, and a durable moat because VMS businesses become deeply embedded…
“I have described it to my investors before as a berkshire of software companies”
Legendary asset manager Chris Mayer’s investment C.O.D.E reveals his favorite stocks to buy now
Heico is a Mendelssohn-family-owned holding company with a durable moat in FAA-approved aircraft replacement parts (high approval barrier, zero failure record) plus a defense and electronics segment, generating high returns on capital for decades without…
“once you get approval from the FAA it's not easy to just decide to go build aircraft parts”
90d +14.8% · 180d +12.8% · 1y +28.3%
Legendary asset manager Chris Mayer’s investment C.O.D.E reveals his favorite stocks to buy now
Said again: 2021-11-08 (Chris Mayer)
2021-08-19
EVO
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Evolution Gaming dominates the global online casino infrastructure market by miles over its competitors, earns very high returns on invested capital with minimal leverage, has strong insider ownership, and recently completed a large acquisition whose numbers…
“it's a company that continually knocks it out of the park”
Legendary asset manager Chris Mayer’s investment C.O.D.E reveals his favorite stocks to buy now
Said again: 2021-11-08 (Chris Mayer)
2021-08-19
TOI
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Topicus is a Constellation Software spinoff using the identical VMS acquisition model focused in the Netherlands and Northern Europe, where language barriers and regional specificity protect the niche software businesses it acquires, and it was obtained at a…
“it's the gift that keeps on giving”
90d -9.8% · 180d -36.4% · 1y -32.5%
Legendary asset manager Chris Mayer’s investment C.O.D.E reveals his favorite stocks to buy now
Said again: 2021-11-08 (Chris Mayer)
2021-06-21
BOL
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Bolloré is the primary vehicle to own Universal Music Group at a discount — it holds a large Vivendi stake, is run by Vincent Bolloré whose 20-year track record is ~20%/year compounding, insiders continue buying, and the UMG IPO is an imminent catalyst to…
“bola ray has outperformed vendi by quite a bit over the last 12 months because of that”
Meet the Manager - Woodlock House | June 2021
2021-06-21
DOM
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Prior management destroyed value through botched international expansion and franchisee conflict, but activist Browning West forced a board overhaul that installed quality management (CEO from Costa Coffee), is selling loss-making markets, improving capital…
“pizza delivery is an excellent business... the cost of the ingredients relative to what you pay is low so their margins are high”
Meet the Manager - Woodlock House | June 2021
2021-06-21
EXOR
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Exor is a capital-allocation-driven holding company controlled by the Agnelli family (>50% ownership), with John Elkann as a demonstrated long-term value creator across a diverse asset base, meeting the owner-operator and excellent financial conditions…
“john elcan... he's proven to be a very good capital allocator himself made a number of interesting deals”
Meet the Manager - Woodlock House | June 2021
2021-06-21
VIV
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Vivendi trades at roughly the value of Universal Music Group alone — meaning Canal Plus and other assets are free — while UMG's streaming-driven growth, high margins, and dominant catalog position (8 of the top 10 artists) should command a valuation above…
“if you look at top 10 artists universal music group has like four the top five and i think eight of the top ten overall”
90d -13.0% · 180d -4.8% · 1y +9.0%
Meet the Manager - Woodlock House | June 2021
2020-06-30
long IHG / long MAR / long HLT
basket
Chris Mayer · video
IHG, Marriott, and Hilton are asset-light franchise businesses that still generate free cash flow even at pandemic lows, trade cheaply vs. normalized earnings, and have historically compounded on shrinking invested capital — IHG's 10-year capital base shrank…
“they're asset light, mostly franchise businesses… still going to produce free cash flow this year”
90d +17.7% · 180d +46.0% · 1y +57.9%
How to hunt 100 bagger stocks? And how to kill bad ideas? A talk with Chris W. Mayer
2020-06-30
BRO
owns
Chris Mayer · video
Brown & Brown is a durable insurance broker with a flawless acquisition track record (zero impairments), stable returns on capital, and revenues resilient enough to outperform the market materially during the COVID shutdown
“my insurance brokerage firm, Brown & Brown, has held up pretty well year-to-date”
90d +10.3% · 180d +13.0% · 1y +31.4%
How to hunt 100 bagger stocks? And how to kill bad ideas? A talk with Chris W. Mayer
Heico is a far superior way to gain aviation exposure versus aircraft leasing because it is a skilled serial acquirer with a better underlying business model that is not directly dependent on airline capacity utilization
“something like Heico would be a good way to play it. It's a much better business”
90d +5.8% · 180d +32.5% · 1y +40.1%
How to hunt 100 bagger stocks? And how to kill bad ideas? A talk with Chris W. Mayer
2019-07-25
EXOR
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Exor is a family-controlled European holding company (Agnelli family owns majority) with interests in Ferrari and Fiat Chrysler that checks multiple boxes—owner-operator alignment, undervalued holding-company structure, proven long-term capital allocation…
Chris Mayer - I Do Think The Biggest Challenge…Is Keeping It, Holding On To It
2019-07-25
HHC
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Howard Hughes trades below NAV (~$130 vs NAV estimate of $170+) and has exceptional management alignment—CEO has large personal stake and long-dated warrants, Bill Ackman is chairman—with a strategic review/sale process acting as a near-term catalyst
“even at $130 or so...if you do an NAV it's not hard to get 170 or above”
90d -17.2% · 180d -5.1% · 1y -59.5%
Chris Mayer - I Do Think The Biggest Challenge…Is Keeping It, Holding On To It
2019-07-25
AL
bullish
Chris Mayer · video
Air Lease trades well below book value despite mid-teens ROE, long-term contracted cash flows (10-12 year leases), and a large order book providing a visible path to doubling in size over five years, led by Steven Udvar-Házy who invented the aircraft leasing…
“it's almost just like being a landlord except in this case they're leasing planes”
90d +5.3% · 180d +14.4% · 1y -35.3%
Chris Mayer - I Do Think The Biggest Challenge…Is Keeping It, Holding On To It
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