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Investors / stance tracking

What Cliff Asness is saying

Co-founder/CIO, AQR Capital

56 dated public stances tracked since 2023-02-23, most recently 2026-05-22. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Cliff Asness's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Cliff Asness is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

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56
tracked stances
33
themes
0
side flips
2026-05-22
last heard
Returns  90d -1.0% (n=20) · 180d +3.2% (n=20) · 1y +1.4% (n=14)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
SPX76 bearish / 1 neutral2026-05-22
Managed Futures66 bullish2025-11-10
USTS43 bullish / 1 neutral2024-11-25
PRIVATE EQUITY22 bearish2026-05-22
BANKS11 bearish2023-06-01
BUFFER ETFS AND HEDGED EQUITY FUNDS11 bearish2025-09-21

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-05-22 INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES / GLOBAL DIVERSIFICATION bullish Cliff Asness · video
75-85% of the US's 30-year equity outperformance vs international came from multiple expansion rather than fundamental earnings growth, making extrapolation of US dominance dangerous and a globally diversified portfolio the rational default
“your base case, your kind of diffuse prior, I think it's much closer to global than local”
He Wrote the Papers Finance Didn't Want to Hear | Cliff Asness Breaks Down His Greatest Hits
2026-05-22 PRIVATE EQUITY bearish Cliff Asness · video
Illiquidity in private equity was originally a 'bug' that earned investors a premium; now that investors actively value it as a behavioral tool to stay long-term, the premium has been bid away and PE returns may equal or underperform public equity going…
“when a bug becomes a feature, the expected return is lower, not higher”
He Wrote the Papers Finance Didn't Want to Hear | Cliff Asness Breaks Down His Greatest Hits
2026-05-22 SPX bearish Cliff Asness · video
Shiller CAPE near 40 (second highest in history) makes the US market's 5-10 year prospective returns look very low and analogous to the 2000 dot-com peak, suggesting outcomes will be 'at least directionally similar' to the post-2000 bust even if the exact…
“I think the market rhymes with back then and the outcome will if I had to guess, it'll be at least directionally similar”
He Wrote the Papers Finance Didn't Want to Hear | Cliff Asness Breaks Down His Greatest Hits
2026-05-22 long CHEAP/VALUE EQUITIES / short EXPENSIVE/GROWTH EQUITIES pair Cliff Asness · video
The value spread (cheap vs expensive stocks) is at roughly the 75th historical percentile, meaning cheap stocks are meaningfully more attractive than expensive peers on a risk-adjusted basis relative to history
“the spread between cheap and expensive... on our versions of value, it's good. It's better than normal”
He Wrote the Papers Finance Didn't Want to Hear | Cliff Asness Breaks Down His Greatest Hits
2026-01-22 SPX bearish video
75–85% of US outperformance vs world since 1990 came from valuation expansion rather than fundamentals, making mean reversion toward international outperformance likely over long horizons
“I would probably expect the world to gain some of that back”
90d +3.5% · 180d +9.2%
2026-01-22 long BITCOIN / short MSTR pair video
MicroStrategy functioned as a closed-end fund trading at ~2.5x the value of its Bitcoin holdings, creating a near-arbitrage by going long Bitcoin and short MicroStrategy
“a closed-end fund selling for 2 and a half times what it owns... It's a layup”
90d -12.0% · 180d +5.5%
2025-11-13 long CHEAP/VALUE STOCKS / short EXPENSIVE/GROWTH STOCKS pair Cliff Asness · video
The spread between cheap and expensive stocks sits at the 77th historical percentile — wide enough to offer better-than-average forward returns for value strategies without reaching bubble territory, making a long-cheap / short-expensive position moderately…
“It's wider than on average. Maybe making it a little more attractive if you can stick with it.”
Cliff Asness on How Markets Got Dumber in the Last 10 Years | Odd Lots
2025-11-10 Managed Futures bullish video
Global uncertainty is elevated above historical average, and trend following is a positively convex strategy that benefits when conditions get volatile and uncertain
“trend following is a positively convex strategy when things get weird”
90d +12.0% · 180d +13.9%
2025-11-10 Big Tech bearish video
AI stocks carry nosebleed valuations requiring tremendous future growth, echoing the dotcom pattern where the technology proved real but the highly-valued companies were overpriced and most didn't survive as winners
“I would personally at least fade that somewhat”
90d +1.3% · 180d -14.7%
2025-11-10 long HIGH-PROFITABILITY STOCKS / short LOW-PROFITABILITY STOCKS pair video
Profitable companies persistently outperform unprofitable ones across market regimes, generating a durable and measurable spread that has continued to work in 2025
2025-09-21 TSLA bearish video
Tesla's valuation reflects cultish mob sentiment and social-media reinforcement loops more than fundamentals, making it susceptible to the same irrationality that defines the meme-stock complex
“Are they on the spectrum where they're a little cultish and driven by a mob who will shout you down? Yeah.”
90d -12.6% · 180d +15.3%
2025-09-21 BUFFER ETFS AND HEDGED EQUITY FUNDS bearish video
Buffer and hedged equity funds empirically underperform a simple stocks-plus-cash blend, produce larger drawdowns, and are structurally worst in grinding bear markets where options premiums inflate while protective puts never trigger
“I say sell some stocks, real simple. Don't get this. This is too cute by half.”
2025-09-21 SINGLE-DAY 0DTE OPTIONS (BUYER SIDE) bearish video
Implied volatility embedded in single-day options is systematically overpriced, making buyers reliably lose like sports bettors on FanDuel while broker-dealers and sellers extract steady profits
“Their popularity can be summed up with FanDuel is very popular too. And the average player on FanDuel loses.”
2025-09-21 PLTR bearish video
Palantir's valuation is driven by cult-like mob psychology and social-media groupthink rather than rational fundamental analysis, placing it on the meme-stock spectrum where price disconnects from intrinsic worth
“I would call Palantir Tesla meme stocks. They're on the spectrum — a little cultish, driven by a mob.”
90d -8.2% · 180d +16.0%
2025-09-21 INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES VS US LARGE CAP bullish video
US large cap has re-rated from cheaper-than-world to significantly more expensive, so multiple expansion cannot repeat from here — even flat relative valuations mean international diversification delivers returns US-only can no longer monopolize
“At substantially more expensive than the entire world, do I think it's going to radically outperform?”
2025-06-03 MARKET NEUTRAL EQUITY STRATEGIES bullish Cliff Asness · video
Market neutral strategies are outperforming because markets are rewarding fundamental quality factors (profitability, buybacks, low beta) outside of a bubble environment, making diversified long-short quant approaches effective
“the market has rewarded good companies that are getting better that aren't too risky”
Asness on Buying Opportunities, Markets, Tarirffs
2025-06-03 SPX bearish Cliff Asness · video
US stock valuations are 'pretty bad' while price trend momentum has weakened, causing the combined timing signal to net out to a slightly negative lean — not a strong call, but a tilt away from overweighting
“on net we're probably close to neutral maybe a little negative. Valuation is pretty bad particularly for US stocks”
90d +7.7% · 180d +14.8% · 1y +28.0%
Asness on Buying Opportunities, Markets, Tarirffs
2025-06-03 Managed Futures owns Cliff Asness · video
Diversified trend following expanded to many more markets and incorporating fundamental/economic trend signals has generated strong returns in 2025 even as pure price-trend trend-following has struggled with whipsaws
“it's not been a good year for trend following in general...but we've diversified our trend following process to do many many more markets”
90d +3.5% · 180d +14.7% · 1y +31.4%
Asness on Buying Opportunities, Markets, Tarirffs
2025-06-03 PRIVATE EQUITY / PRIVATE ASSETS bearish Cliff Asness · video
Private assets are leveraged long-only equities with artificially smoothed reported volatility (~4% reported vs ~32% real); illiquidity was once a bug investors got paid to bear but is now marketed as a feature, meaning investors pay for it through lower…
“it does feel like a crowded place... people think they're way too low risk. They're way too popular”
Asness on Buying Opportunities, Markets, Tarirffs
2024-12-03 SPX neutral Cliff Asness · video
85% of US equity outperformance vs. global peers has come from multiple expansion rather than fundamentals, making further extrapolation of US dominance unreliable and arguing against a concentrated US-only equity posture
“85% is people being willing to pay more for those multiples—that's not something you want to extrapolate”
Cliff Asness on Equity Investing, Taxes and AI
2024-12-03 LONG/SHORT EQUITY MARKET NEUTRAL STRATEGIES bullish Cliff Asness · video
Long-short equity strategies that are truly short allow investors to sidestep concentration risk and generate alpha independent of expensive market valuations, making them more valuable when equity risk premia are compressed
“long short Equity strategies that are truly short not not long short cuz that's just window dressing”
Cliff Asness on Equity Investing, Taxes and AI
2024-12-03 SMALL CAP EQUITIES (SMALL CAP PREMIUM FACTOR) neutral Cliff Asness · video
After adjusting for beta, listing survivorship bias, and illiquidity-inflated betas, there has never been a statistically robust small-cap premium, though current small-cap value spreads are historically wide which could signal opportunity rather than…
“we don't think there's ever been a small cap premium”
Cliff Asness on Equity Investing, Taxes and AI
2024-12-03 LEVERAGED SINGLE-STOCK ETFS bearish Cliff Asness · video
Volatility drag makes leveraged single-stock ETFs almost certain to lose money for long-term holders, and their proliferation is a symptom of speculative excess and extreme valuations rather than a sound investment vehicle
“extremely ETFs if you hold them long enough are almost certainly going to lose their money the volatility drag is very large”
Cliff Asness on Equity Investing, Taxes and AI
2024-12-03 Quality Stocks bullish Cliff Asness · video
Profitable, stable, low-volatility companies bought at reasonable prices (Buffett-style quality investing) still generates alpha going forward even at elevated market valuations
“buying high quality companies at reasonable price what Warren Buffett does we think is still going to work going forward”
90d -3.4% · 180d -3.9% · 1y +8.1%
Cliff Asness on Equity Investing, Taxes and AI
2024-12-03 Managed Futures bullish Cliff Asness · video
Elevated economic uncertainty and policy dispersion under Trump's second term creates turbulent conditions that favor positively convex, trend-following strategies.
“Trend following strategies... they tend to do well in tumult... are probably a better time”
90d -2.9% · 180d -3.4% · 1y +10.8%
Cliff Asness on Equity Investing, Taxes and AI
2024-12-03 QUALITY EQUITIES bullish Cliff Asness · video
Profitable, stable, low-volatility companies bought at reasonable prices represent durable, persistable alpha even as broad equity valuations are stretched.
“buying high quality companies at reasonable price what Warren Buffett does we think is still going to work going forward”
Cliff Asness on Equity Investing, Taxes and AI
2024-11-25 VALUE FACTOR EQUITIES bullish video
Value spreads between cheap and expensive stocks are at historically maximum levels across virtually every industry, making mean reversion highly probable and the expected long-term return unusually attractive relative to other bets available in the market.
“I think the odds are much better particularly over you know modest length holding periods uh anything north of a year”
2024-11-25 USTS bullish video
Applying the same quantitative value, quality, and momentum factors used in equities to corporate credit selection generates genuine alpha because the same economic forces — cheap, high quality, improving fundamentals — are rewarded in fixed income and are…
“the same basic forces of cheaper higher quality better momentum improving fundamentals work in credit”
90d +0.2% · 180d +1.4% · 1y +7.2%
2024-11-22 VALUE STOCKS (GLOBALLY DIVERSIFIED, INDUSTRY-NEUTRAL) bullish video
Markets have become structurally less efficient—through indexing, prolonged low rates, and social-media-driven mob behavior—widening value spreads to historically extreme levels (~81st percentile globally cheap by AQR's measures), which means disciplined…
“I'm a believer that saying you make more money but it's harder is how the world's supposed to work”
2024-11-22 PRIVATE EQUITY bearish video
With $4–6 trillion in PE and private credit chasing the same assets, deals are being done at near-public multiples rather than the deep discounts of the 1980s–90s; the illiquidity premium has flipped from a bug (compensated) to a desired feature (priced…
“any possible chance they're allocating to things at similar valuations as KKR and Bain were in 1987? Zero chance.”
2024-05-13 INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES (NON-US DEVELOPED MARKETS) bullish video
Roughly 80-85% of US equity outperformance over the past 30 years came from multiple expansion — US stocks went from cheap to expensive — and assuming that valuation tailwind repeats is poor analysis, making internationally diversified portfolios better…
“about 80, 85% of that victory has been multiples going up”
2024-05-13 VALUE FACTOR (LONG CHEAP VS SHORT EXPENSIVE EQUITIES) bullish video
Spreads between cheap and expensive stocks recently hit their widest level ever, providing a historically extreme entry point for value strategies that Asness views as close to a mathematical proof of eventual mean reversion
“the spreads between cheap and expensive are still considerably wider and recently hit their widest level ever”
2024-04-05 USTS bullish Cliff Asness · video
Real yields on long TIPS have returned to historically normal positive levels (~2%), making them reasonably valued after the negative-real-yield era, and the time to panic was when yields were negative, not now
“they look pretty reasonable now and a lot more reasonable than they've looked in a while”
90d +2.0% · 180d +7.0% · 1y +6.3%
The Biggest Investment Mistake: Billionaire Hedge Fund Cliff Asness Reveals
2024-04-05 Managed Futures bullish Cliff Asness · video
Layering fundamental momentum signals (earnings revisions, economic data surprises, balance-of-payments trends) onto price-based trend following produces a ~0.5–0.6 correlation between the two signal sets — enough to materially improve risk-adjusted returns…
“the two together both improve the risk adjusted return and seem to be a more robust hedge on those terrible periods”
90d +5.9% · 180d -1.0% · 1y -10.0%
The Biggest Investment Mistake: Billionaire Hedge Fund Cliff Asness Reveals
2024-04-05 SPX bearish Cliff Asness · video
US equities have re-rated massively vs. non-US (now 1.5x the price) and most of the 30-year outperformance came from multiple expansion not earnings growth, making continued US-only concentration a poor forward-looking bet
“do you really want to assume that going forward and what's your loss for diversification at this point”
90d +7.3% · 180d +10.4% · 1y -1.5%
The Biggest Investment Mistake: Billionaire Hedge Fund Cliff Asness Reveals
2024-04-05 VALUE FACTOR / CHEAP VS. EXPENSIVE STOCKS bullish Cliff Asness · video
The spread between cheap and expensive stocks is at historically extreme levels (exceeded even the 1999-2000 peak by late 2020 and remains wide), and markets are becoming less efficient, making the value premium larger and more persistent for those who can…
“by late 2020 we exceeded it so in some simple...just looking at things yeah we think things have gotten crazier”
The Biggest Investment Mistake: Billionaire Hedge Fund Cliff Asness Reveals
2024-04-05 EMERGING MARKETS EQUITIES bullish Cliff Asness · video
Emerging markets are cheap on a valuation basis and represent a diversifying allocation away from richly priced US equities, forming part of AQR's top three investment ideas for 2024
“value Emerging Markets then alt Trend strategies”
The Biggest Investment Mistake: Billionaire Hedge Fund Cliff Asness Reveals
2024-04-05 SMALL-CAP EQUITIES (PURE SIZE FACTOR) neutral Cliff Asness · video
The pure small-firm effect is largely explained by higher beta rather than a genuine size premium, though factor tilts in small caps may add value because most factors work better in small caps than large caps
“the pure small firm effect is not that it's just small against large”
The Biggest Investment Mistake: Billionaire Hedge Fund Cliff Asness Reveals
2024-04-05 Investment Grade Credit bullish Cliff Asness · video
After the 2022 drawdown that brought real yields back to historically normal levels (~2% on long-term TIPS), bonds are now reasonably valued; panic was warranted when real yields were deeply negative, not at current levels.
“they look pretty reasonable now and a lot more reasonable than they've looked in a while”
90d +2.2% · 180d +7.8% · 1y +4.1%
The Biggest Investment Mistake: Billionaire Hedge Fund Cliff Asness Reveals
2024-04-05 PURE SMALL-CAP FACTOR (SIZE PREMIUM) neutral Cliff Asness · video
The standalone small-firm effect is fully explained by the higher betas of small and micro-cap stocks; after controlling for beta there is no genuine size premium, making pure small-cap tilts an inefficient use of risk budget.
“we are not believers in the small firm effect... we think it's 100% coming from small and micro caps having higher betas”
The Biggest Investment Mistake: Billionaire Hedge Fund Cliff Asness Reveals
2024-04-05 VALUE STOCKS (CHEAP VS. EXPENSIVE SPREAD) bullish Cliff Asness · video
The valuation spread between cheap and expensive stocks exceeded its prior 50-year record (set in early 2000) by late 2020, and Asness believes markets have become less — not more — efficient over his career, making the extreme spread a genuine long-term…
“by late 2020 we exceeded it... we think things have gotten crazier twice than we'd ever seen before”
The Biggest Investment Mistake: Billionaire Hedge Fund Cliff Asness Reveals
2023-06-01 SPX bearish Cliff Asness · video
Equity markets are pricing in a benign soft-landing while bond markets are pricing in multiple severe rate cuts consistent with a meaningful recession, creating a dangerous inconsistency that puts equities at risk if inflation stays sticky or a recession…
“it's equities that I think are a scary place, they're not priced very consistently with bonds”
90d -7.3% · 180d -8.6% · 1y -26.8%
AQR Co-founder Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein
2023-06-01 LONG-SHORT VALUE owns Cliff Asness · video
Asness is heavily overweight a long-short value strategy in his own and his children's portfolios because he believes the trade remains compelling even though it could get worse before it gets better
“we have our money pretty gigantically Overexposed to this long short value trade”
How Cliff Asness Would Invest $100,000
2023-06-01 LONG-SHORT VALUE EQUITY STRATEGY owns Cliff Asness · video
Asness believes the long-short value trade is currently undervalued and positioned to recover, and he is personally overweight this strategy in his own and his children's portfolios despite near-term uncertainty
“we have our money pretty gigantically Overexposed to this long short value trade”
How Cliff Asness Would Invest $100,000
2023-06-01 VALUE STOCKS (LONG/SHORT VALUE FACTOR) owns Cliff Asness · video
Value stocks remain deeply dislocated relative to expensive/growth stocks — as they did in 1999-2000 — and the factor has already begun reverting, generating outsized returns as the distortion unwinds
“we have our money pretty gigantically Overexposed to this long short value trade”
AQR Co-founder Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein
2023-06-01 BANKS bearish Cliff Asness · video
Banks with commercial real estate exposure face heightened stress as urban office vacancy rises and credit conditions tighten, making them a nerve-wracking source of potential financial instability
“commercial real estate and banks that deal in that maybe a more nerve-wracking place”
90d -12.9% · 180d -15.2% · 1y -37.2%
AQR Co-founder Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein
2023-06-01 Managed Futures bullish Cliff Asness · video
Prolonged macroeconomic volatility — which Asness expects to persist — is the native environment for trend-following strategies, making them an attractive portfolio diversifier alongside value
“we also like some Alternatives such as Trend following strategies — they tend to like macroeconomic volatility”
90d +4.0% · 180d +2.2% · 1y +15.0%
AQR Co-founder Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein
2023-06-01 USTS bullish Cliff Asness · video
The short-term yield curve is pricing multiple severe Fed rate cuts over the next one to two years, implying a significant recession, which Asness presents as a credible signal worth heeding relative to equity complacency
“bonds…priced into the short-term curve is multiple severe cuts over the next year to two years — that is a recession”
Cliff Asness: Equities Are a ‘Scary Place’ to Be in a Recession
2023-06-01 long VALUE STOCKS (CHEAP ON VALUATION METRICS) / short EXPENSIVE / GROWTH STOCKS pair Cliff Asness · video
Long cheap value stocks / short expensive growth stocks because the value spread remains historically wide and Asness believes it will eventually mean-revert, despite near-term risk of further drawdown
“we have our money pretty gigantically Overexposed to this long short value trade”
How Cliff Asness Would Invest $100,000
2023-06-01 long P / short EXPENSIVE/GROWTH STOCKS pair Cliff Asness · video
Value stocks are at their cheapest vs. expensive/growth stocks since the dot-com bubble after an 8-year post-GFC dislocation, creating a mean-reversion opportunity that has already begun paying off and still has room to run
“we have our money pretty gigantically overexposed to this long short value trade”
AQR Co-founder Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein
2023-06-01 short SPX / long USTS pair Cliff Asness · video
Bonds are pricing in multiple severe Fed cuts (a real recession), while equities have not priced in that same outcome — making equities the dangerous leg if recession or sticky inflation materializes
“it's equities that I think are a scary place they're not priced very consistently with bonds”
90d -5.2% · 180d -6.1% · 1y -14.7%
Cliff Asness: Equities Are a ‘Scary Place’ to Be in a Recession
2023-02-23 USTS neutral Cliff Asness · video
The 60/40 portfolio has a positive but historically low expected real return of ~3% above inflation, improved from its extreme 1.9% low at end of 2021, so it is no longer egregiously overpriced but still expensive, making it holdable but not a compelling…
“I still think there's a risk premium and you can't time it”
AQR's Cliff Asness on 60/40 Strategy, Market Risks
2023-02-23 VALUE VS. GROWTH SPREAD (LONG CHEAP, SHORT EXPENSIVE STOCKS) bullish Cliff Asness · video
The valuation spread between cheap and expensive stocks, while having narrowed from bubble extremes, remains at the 90th percentile versus history and is likely to continue mean-reverting, offering attractive risk-adjusted returns with low market correlation…
“that spread is still at the 90th percentile versus history”
AQR's Cliff Asness on 60/40 Strategy, Market Risks
2023-02-23 SPX bearish Cliff Asness · video
The overall US stock market is no longer in a bubble but remains very expensive versus history, and is priced assuming inflation returns to normal, creating downside risk if macro delivers a stagflationary outcome markets are 'woefully unprepared for'
“the overall stock market...I still think it's very expensive versus history”
AQR's Cliff Asness on 60/40 Strategy, Market Risks
2023-02-23 Managed Futures bullish Cliff Asness · video
Elevated macroeconomic volatility is historically favorable for trend-following strategies, which unlike buying puts generate positive expected returns on average while providing better insurance over longer horizons
“we still like trend following... macroeconomic volatility tends to be good for trend following”
90d -6.1% · 180d -1.4% · 1y -1.1%
AQR's Cliff Asness on 60/40 Strategy, Market Risks
2023-02-23 long CHEAP/VALUE STOCKS (MULTI-MEASURE, INDUSTRY-NEUTRAL) / short EXPENSIVE/GROWTH STOCKS pair Cliff Asness · video
The valuation spread between cheap and expensive stocks is still at the 90th historical percentile despite partial mean-reversion, implying the value premium has significantly further to run
“the value trade still has quite a ways to go... I do think you want this now”
AQR's Cliff Asness on 60/40 Strategy, Market Risks

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