Senior portfolio manager, Miller Value Partners
3 dated public stances tracked since 2021-09-16, most recently 2021-09-16. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Dan Lysik's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Dan Lysik is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|
| 2021-09-16 | PBI | bullish | -7.7% | -28.7% | -61.4% |
| 2021-09-16 | NBR | bullish | +5.6% | +63.1% | +48.9% |
| 2021-09-16 | GCI | bullish | -25.2% | -32.8% | -68.3% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|
| GCI | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2021-09-16 |
| NBR | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2021-09-16 |
| PBI | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2021-09-16 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2021-09-16
NBR
bullish
Bill Miller · video
Neighbors Industries trades at a 70% discount to peers despite superior international drilling assets; de-levering balance sheet and a scaling Saudi Aramco JV should drive the stock at least 5x as energy capex recovers from a 50-year cyclical trough
“a stock price that's at least five times higher than we're seeing today”
90d +5.6% · 180d +63.1% · 1y +48.9%
Meet the Manager - Miller Value Partners | September 2021
2021-09-16
GCI
bullish
Bill Miller · video
Gannett is transforming from legacy newspaper into a digital media company with 135M daily users following the NYT subscription playbook, yet trades at less than 0.3x revenue versus 4x+ for digital peers, creating multi-bagger potential as subscribers…
“gannett today is at less than 0.3 [times revenue]”
90d -25.2% · 180d -32.8% · 1y -68.3%
Meet the Manager - Miller Value Partners | September 2021
2021-09-16
PBI
bullish
Bill Miller · video
Pitney Bowes' $1.5B e-commerce/cross-border logistics unit is worth multiples of the entire $1B market cap based on comps (stamps.com at 8x, Globalee at 20x revenue), with activist or spinoff pressure likely to close the gap
“the market cap today it's only a billion”
90d -7.7% · 180d -28.7% · 1y -61.4%
Meet the Manager - Miller Value Partners | September 2021
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