Founder & Portfolio Manager, Tyro Capital Management
4 dated public stances tracked since 2020-01-20, most recently 2020-01-20. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Dan Mcmurtrie's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Dan Mcmurtrie is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|
| 2020-01-20 | MYGN | bearish | +46.5% | +57.9% | +4.1% |
| 2020-01-20 | MNKD | bearish | +27.9% | +0.9% | -88.3% |
| 2020-01-20 | GERN | bearish | +17.7% | -41.8% | -25.5% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|
| GERN | 1 | | 1 bearish | 2020-01-20 |
| GRUB | 1 | | 1 bearish | 2020-01-20 |
| MNKD | 1 | | 1 bearish | 2020-01-20 |
| MYGN | 1 | | 1 bearish | 2020-01-20 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2020-01-20
GERN
bearish
The Acquirers Podcast · video
Geron Pharmaceuticals had the same phantom-catalyst structure as MannKind — the key sponsor Geron touted as a white knight went completely dark ahead of a contractual decision date, with digital evidence corroborating cancellation and a binary payoff skewed…
“the big sponsor that they were claiming as the white knight went completely dark. A lot of evidence that this was canceled.”
90d +17.7% · 180d -41.8% · 1y -25.5%
Supermugatu: Dan McMurtrie on long/shorts equity with Tobias Carlisle on The Acquirers Podcast
2020-01-20
GRUB
bearish
The Acquirers Podcast · video
Grubhub was losing a war of attrition to better-capitalized DoorDash, which had a stated mandate to burn cash for share and was aggressively poaching Grubhub staff, while Wall Street's Seamless/NYC bubble caused analysts to overestimate national market…
“you're in the middle of the ocean saying I can swim longer than that guy. I don't really care. Neither of you can swim for months and you're not going to reach land.”
Supermugatu: Dan McMurtrie on long/shorts equity with Tobias Carlisle on The Acquirers Podcast
2020-01-20
MYGN
bearish
The Acquirers Podcast · video
Myriad Genetics faced existential competitive pressure from Invitae's Amazon-style strategy of halving prices annually while deploying custom robotics and poaching Myriad's top salespeople, giving Invitae the capital and operational edge to drive Myriad from…
“Invitae is just a very dangerous company to compete with because they're ruthless, they don't care about profits, they have the capital to continue to do that.”
90d +46.5% · 180d +57.9% · 1y +4.1%
Supermugatu: Dan McMurtrie on long/shorts equity with Tobias Carlisle on The Acquirers Podcast
2020-01-20
MNKD
bearish
The Acquirers Podcast · video
MannKind had a phantom-catalyst short setup — Sanofi held an indenture clause to revoke all product backing on a specific date, and every forward-looking digital signal (job postings, IP filings, clinical trial activity, LinkedIn team changes) confirmed…
“you saw everything online, any digital trace of anything about that company just disappear... Either nothing happens or you make money.”
90d +27.9% · 180d +0.9% · 1y -88.3%
Supermugatu: Dan McMurtrie on long/shorts equity with Tobias Carlisle on The Acquirers Podcast
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