Investors / stance tracking
What Daniel Lacalle is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowChief Economist & CIO, Tressis
Economist
22 dated public stances tracked since 2024-09-26, most recently 2026-08-27. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Daniel Lacalle's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Daniel Lacalle is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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22
tracked stances
16
themes
0
side flips
2026-08-27
last heard
Returns 90d +0.1% 40% correct · 15 calls · 180d +4.1% 57% correct · 7 calls · 1y +19.4% 86% correct · 7 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | long GOLD / long SILVER | basket | -7.2% | — | — |
| 2026-05-21 | USTS | bearish | -0.6% | — | — |
| 2026-05-21 | OIL | bearish | +8.2% | — | — |
| 2026-05-21 | COPPER | bullish | +2.1% | — | — |
| 2026-05-21 | COAL | bullish | +4.9% | — | — |
| 2026-05-21 | China Equities | bearish | -0.2% | — | — |
| 2026-05-21 | Big Tech | bullish | +0.3% | — | — |
| 2026-05-21 | BANKS | bearish | -9.5% | — | — |
| 2025-01-16 | long Investment Grade Credit / short USTS | pair | -1.2% | -0.2% | +0.3% |
| 2025-01-16 | USD | bullish | -7.9% | -7.3% | -4.2% |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLD | bullish | +22.7% | +22.4% | +68.1% |
| 2025-01-16 | ENERGY | bullish | -13.9% | -5.3% | +5.7% |
| 2024-09-26 | SPX | bullish | +5.4% | +1.2% | +17.0% |
| 2024-09-26 | GOLD | bullish | -1.6% | +12.8% | +40.4% |
| 2024-09-26 | Commodities Broad | bullish | -0.5% | +5.4% | +8.2% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-08-27 | |
| Commodities Broad | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 neutral | 2025-01-16 | |
| USD | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-08-27 | |
| BANKS | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-05-21 | |
| BITCOIN | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-08-27 | |
| Big Tech | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-05-21 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
Governments have exceeded all three credibility limits (economic, fiscal, inflationary), causing central banks globally to abandon fiat-denominated debt reserves and accumulate gold — and all fiat currencies are weakening relative to gold.
“all of them are worsening relative to gold”
MacroVoices #547 Daniel Lacalle: The Future of Reserve Currency
USD-backed stablecoins are the practical bridge from the old centralized reserve system to a decentralized one, and their adoption forces the US to defend dollar purchasing power — reinforcing their growth trajectory.
“stablecoins are the bridge that takes us from the old to the new”
MacroVoices #547 Daniel Lacalle: The Future of Reserve Currency
Decentralized currencies are an unstoppable technological force that will coexist with fiat and impose fiscal discipline on governments by competing for the reserve-of-value function that over-leveraged central banks have surrendered.
“it's inevitable that we will see complete disruption thanks to technology of the centralized monetary system”
MacroVoices #547 Daniel Lacalle: The Future of Reserve Currency
2026-05-21
long GOLD / long SILVER
basket
Wealthion · video
Currency debasement from structural fiscal excess is 'virtually inevitable'; gold and silver must be held long-term as pullbacks are opportunities because the monetary and fiscal landscape is not changing, and central banks are buying gold over government…
“there is an opportunity in a pullback”
90d -7.2%
Savers Are Getting Crushed | Daniel Lacalle
Governments continue issuing excess currency to fund structural deficits, keeping inflation persistent, which means bonds no longer cushion portfolios during equity weakness — the 60/40 safe-haven function is broken.
“sovereign bonds have stopped being the reserve asset, the safe haven that gave you a cushion of return”
90d -0.6%
Savers Are Getting Crushed | Daniel Lacalle
2026-05-21
Big Tech
bullish
Wealthion · video
US indices have three structural advantages absent elsewhere: management-minority investor alignment, rapid innovation rising to index top, and dollar strength vs all alternatives — making risk-adjusted returns superior to any other region.
“it is better to have an overweight position in US stocks relative to others”
90d +0.3%
Savers Are Getting Crushed | Daniel Lacalle
2026-05-21
LARGE-CAP TECHNOLOGY
bullish
Wealthion · video
Tech giants are structurally immune to inflation and geopolitical risk because they lack physical assets that governments can tax or regulate away, so fiscal money flows continue to lift them as currency purchasing power erodes.
“the technology giants, they're immune to inflation, they're immune to the geopolitical concerns”
Savers Are Getting Crushed | Daniel Lacalle
Long-term electrification of transport fleets and the energy-mix transition structurally drives copper demand, even though a near-term manufacturing slowdown may temporarily suppress it.
“Copper, I really like copper on a longer term perspective”
90d +2.1%
Savers Are Getting Crushed | Daniel Lacalle
2026-05-21
COAL
bullish
Wealthion · video
Political neglect has made coal ignored by investors, but actual consumption continues to rise — China is using more, Germany is using more — and investor portfolios should reflect energy realities, not political preferences.
“Look at coal. Everybody is ignoring coal, but China is using more coal. Germany is using more coal.”
90d +4.9%
Savers Are Getting Crushed | Daniel Lacalle
Deep backwardation in the oil forward curve signals the market is not pricing in sustained upside, and absent a 2008-style financial crisis (which accommodative central banks preclude), prices lack a strong directional catalyst.
“Would I be long oil at these levels? Not very. Not a lot.”
90d +8.2%
Savers Are Getting Crushed | Daniel Lacalle
Bond-like sectors with large physical footprints in high-regulation European economies face structural earnings drag from government tax risk and regulatory burden that permanently caps returns relative to inflation.
“investing in France in a telecommunications company, believe me, they're not going to be able to cut costs”
90d -9.5%
Savers Are Getting Crushed | Daniel Lacalle
2026-05-21
China Equities
bearish
Wealthion · video
Chinese company management is structurally aligned with the government rather than minority investors, which permanently compresses multiples relative to US peers regardless of underlying business quality.
“the management and the government are the same. You don't get that alignment in China.”
90d -0.2%
Savers Are Getting Crushed | Daniel Lacalle
2025-01-16
long Investment Grade Credit / short USTS
pair
Wealthion · video
In a persistent inflation regime government bonds cannot deliver real returns and sovereign issuance is fiscally impaired, so credit (HY/IG) dominates over sovereigns on a risk-adjusted basis
“more in high yield or investment grade bonds than in sovereigns”
90d -1.2% · 180d -0.2% · 1y +0.3%
Persistent Inflation: A Policy Problem | Daniel Lacalle
Persistent government overspending debases currency purchasing power; gold is the core defensive allocation against inflation that central banks cannot engineer away
“defense has to come from gold, has to come from more exposure to the US dollar, more exposure to gold”
90d +22.7% · 180d +22.4% · 1y +68.1%
Persistent Inflation: A Policy Problem | Daniel Lacalle
2025-01-16
EQUITIES (BROAD)
bullish
Wealthion · video
Government bond yields fail to deliver real returns in a persistent inflation environment, so equities remain the primary vehicle for wealth preservation and growth despite near-term volatility
“continue to invest in equities”
Persistent Inflation: A Policy Problem | Daniel Lacalle
Energy and mining (oil, gas, lithium, cobalt, copper, rare earth) have the highest employment multiplier of any sector and will be supercharged by US energy independence policy, driving GDP growth and industrial re-investment
“there is no other sector that generates more productive and sustainable level of growth than the energy and Mining sector”
90d -13.9% · 180d -5.3% · 1y +5.7%
Persistent Inflation: A Policy Problem | Daniel Lacalle
2025-01-16
Commodities Broad
neutral
Wealthion · video
Commodities are consequences of currency debasement rather than standalone longs, so the trade is seasonal and tactical rather than a structural position
“using commodities for a trading perspective, don't think of commodities on a long-term basis, think of them from seasonality trading opportunities”
Persistent Inflation: A Policy Problem | Daniel Lacalle
Persistent inflation and sovereign bond weakness are driving a global slump in non-dollar currencies relative to the US dollar, making more USD exposure the other leg of the defensive portfolio
“more exposure to the US dollar”
90d -7.9% · 180d -7.3% · 1y -4.2%
Persistent Inflation: A Policy Problem | Daniel Lacalle
2025-01-16
RARE EARTH MINERALS / US RARE EARTH
bullish
Wealthion · video
China's rare earth pricing premium is unwarranted because the US has ample domestic reserves, and the data center and energy transition revolution will trigger a domestic rare earth boom
“there's no reason for it, there's plenty of rare earth in the United States”
Persistent Inflation: A Policy Problem | Daniel Lacalle
Both gold and the S&P 500 are tracking the same long-term trend because both discount the destruction of the dollar's purchasing power driven by fiscal insanity and perpetual money-printing
“if you look at gold and the S&P 500 they perform almost in the same Trend — what are both discounting is the destruction of the purchasing power of the dollar”
90d -1.6% · 180d +12.8% · 1y +40.4%
Daniel Lacalle: An Economic Warning America & The World Can’t Ignore!
The scale of fiscal imbalances makes central banks almost inevitably accommodative going forward, so markets will continue rising as investors use equities to protect against currency debasement rather than as a pure earnings play
“the level of fiscal insanity is so huge that central banks will be almost inevitably accommodative in the next years”
90d +5.4% · 180d +1.2% · 1y +17.0%
Daniel Lacalle: An Economic Warning America & The World Can’t Ignore!
2024-09-26
Commodities Broad
bullish
Wealthion · video
Three converging catalysts support a commodity recovery: China pivoting to a large stimulus package (the world's largest commodity importer), Fed rate cuts reducing financing costs for long positions, and a decade of severe underinvestment in commodity supply
“the level of disinvestment and underinvestment in the commodity spectrum is staggering — those things tend to sometimes create a bounce”
90d -0.5% · 180d +5.4% · 1y +8.2%
Daniel Lacalle: An Economic Warning America & The World Can’t Ignore!
Said again: 2024-09-28 (Wealthion)
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