Investors / stance tracking
What David Cervantes is saying
Founder, Pinebrook Capital Management
11 dated public stances tracked since 2024-12-28, most recently 2026-06-03. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of David Cervantes's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. David Cervantes is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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11
tracked stances
8
themes
0
side flips
2026-06-03
last heard
Returns 90d +3.6% (n=8) · 180d +6.3% (n=7) · 1y +11.8% (n=7)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BANKS | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-05-28 | |
| DEFENSE | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-05-28 | |
| GOLD | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-05-28 | |
| IWM | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-05-28 | |
| KOREA EQUITIES | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-06-03 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 1 | 1 neutral | 2025-05-28 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-06-03
KOREA EQUITIES
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Korean equities (Samsung and SK Hynix = 50% of index) traded at ~6x PE post-ceasefire while semiconductor exports and the broader economy surged, birth rates popped reversing a demographic headwind, and the market remains historically cheap even after the run
“that's just been the no-brainer trade. It's worked out”
Why This Economy Refuses To Break | David Cervantes
2025-05-29
long GLOBAL EQUITIES / short USTS
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Both US fiscal deficits (7→8%) and global deficits are expanding simultaneously, meaning bond supply overwhelms while risk assets get fiscal support — favoring equities over bonds globally
“the trade is long everything, short bonds”
Global Markets Can’t Escape The U.S.
2025-05-29
long SPX / short REST OF WORLD EQUITIES
pair
Forward Guidance · video
US structural advantages in market depth, consumer spending, and capital absorption mean the prior ROW-outperformance was largely catch-up from a down H2-2024, not a regime change — though thesis is under review as underperformance has persisted 3 standard…
“the trade is still profitable but half my gains are gone”
Global Markets Can’t Escape The U.S.
2025-05-28
SPX
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Massive fiscal deficit (7-8% of GDP) inoculates the economy from recession, and tax-cut extensions add further stimulus, making consensus 6300-6400 year-end too low as markets will front-run 2026 earnings re-acceleration
“if you think about it that way then 6,300 6,400's too low”
90d +10.1% · 180d +14.4% · 1y +29.9%
The US Economy Is About To Take Off And Bring Stocks With It | David Cervantes
2025-05-28
IWM
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
42% of R2K companies are unprofitable, selection bias from regulatory costs keeps quality firms private, and meaningful outperformance only occurs as a short-lived post-shock recovery trade — not a portfolio position
“stay away from them…it's a trade that's all it is”
90d -14.3% · 180d -17.4% · 1y -43.6%
The US Economy Is About To Take Off And Bring Stocks With It | David Cervantes
2025-05-28
Long Dur Treasuries
neutral
Forward Guidance · video
Fiscal re-acceleration and eventual tariff pass-through inflation keep the 10-year rangebound 4.20-4.80% with no recession bid, making bonds poor hold-worthy investments and only tactical 60 bps range trades
“I think they're shitty investments right now…they are trades, they are tactical”
The US Economy Is About To Take Off And Bring Stocks With It | David Cervantes
2025-05-28
GOLD
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Aggressive central bank buying (particularly China) underpins a secular gold bull, and broken stock-bond correlation means gold is now filling the portfolio-diversifier role that fixed income used to serve
“gold is starting to fill that role of a portfolio diversifier”
90d +2.7% · 180d +25.1% · 1y +35.9%
The US Economy Is About To Take Off And Bring Stocks With It | David Cervantes
2025-05-28
DEFENSE
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
US security-guarantee pullback forces European rearmament (Germany, Poland, Finland) creating a secular bull market for European defense contractors regardless of the broader rest-of-world trade
“European defense stocks…that thing's up 66% this year…they're going to be in a secular bull market”
90d +14.1% · 180d +14.9% · 1y +34.9%
The US Economy Is About To Take Off And Bring Stocks With It | David Cervantes
2025-05-28
BANKS
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Post-GFC bank deregulation rolling back SLR ratios and raising SIFI thresholds removes regulatory burden from mid-size banks, making small cap banks the one pocket of the Russell 2000 with a genuine structural tailwind
“if you really have a real fetish for both small caps…your calling is probably in midsize small cap banks”
90d +15.5% · 180d +10.1% · 1y +22.6%
The US Economy Is About To Take Off And Bring Stocks With It | David Cervantes
2025-05-28
long GLOBAL EQUITIES / short USTS
pair
Forward Guidance · video
US fiscal deficit re-accelerating from 7% to 8% while rest-of-world fiscal impulse is also rising sets up long equities broadly versus short long-duration bonds as the dominant macro trade
“the trade is long everything short bonds…I would think that's right”
The US Economy Is About To Take Off And Bring Stocks With It | David Cervantes
2024-12-28
USTS
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
A newly hawkish Fed will extinguish the last mile of inflation more quickly, which paradoxically puts a bid on intermediate bonds as it simultaneously raises the risk of labor-market deterioration that would force eventual cuts.
“I do think that the Fed came out swinging hawkish... that will put a bid on bonds”
90d +3.3% · 180d +4.9% · 1y +8.3%
How Macro Trading Veterans Are Thinking About 2025 | David Cervantes & DCP
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