What David Kelly is saying
Chief Global Strategist, JPMorgan Asset Management
3 dated public stances tracked since 2024-10-11, most recently 2024-10-11. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of David Kelly's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. David Kelly is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2024-10-11
US MID-LARGE CAP EQUITIES ($2B-$50B MARKET CAP)
bullish
The Compound · video
Companies in the $2B-$50B range trade at reasonable 15-18x PE multiples, are inefficiently priced relative to mega caps, and offer genuine stock-picking alpha at a time when the index-level expensive reading is driven almost entirely by Mag7 concentration
“I could find 20 billion dollar stocks all day long selling at 18 times earnings, 16 times earnings”
Living in a Post Cycle World | TCAF 161
2024-10-11
USD
bearish
The Compound · video
The dollar has been overvalued for 50 years, sustaining a perpetual trade deficit since 1975 that hollows out manufacturing and funnels wealth to asset owners; gradual dollar decline is the correct mechanism to rebalance trade and grow the middle class
“the dollar is too high and we ought to allow the dollar come down gradually and that's the right way to equalize trade”
90d -7.9% · 180d -2.6% · 1y -1.5%
Living in a Post Cycle World | TCAF 161
2024-10-11
MAGNIFICENT 7 / US MEGA CAP EQUITIES
bearish
The Compound · video
Mag7 stocks carry outsized regulatory and antitrust risk, face rising capex competition eroding margins, and are priced at multiples that leave no room for disappointment; history suggests the most highly priced assets catch down rather than the rest catching…
“the things that are most highly priced are the most vulnerable”
Living in a Post Cycle World | TCAF 161
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