Investors / stance tracking
What David Kelly is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowChief Global Strategist, JPMorgan Asset Management
12 dated public stances tracked since 2024-10-11, most recently 2026-10-28. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of David Kelly's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. David Kelly is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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12
tracked stances
11
themes
0
side flips
2026-10-28
last heard
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-11 | USD | bearish | -7.9% | -2.6% | -1.5% |
| 2024-10-11 | International Dev | bullish | -7.6% | -5.3% | +18.0% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Tech | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-10-05 | |
| FED POLICY RATES | 1 | 1 neutral | 2026-10-28 | |
| International Dev | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-10-11 | |
| JAPANESE EQUITIES | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-10-05 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-10-05 | |
| MAGNIFICENT 7 / US MEGA CAP EQUITIES | 1 | 1 bearish | 2024-10-11 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-28
FED POLICY RATES
neutral
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
The Fed should leave rates unchanged for now because the imminent election could materially alter tariff, fiscal, foreign, and AI policies.
“There's no real necessity to move right now. So let's wait and see.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-28 13:55 ET (5 min)
2026-10-28
US INFLATION
bearish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
US inflation should moderate as Gulf oil flows normalize, tariff rates decline, wage growth stays subdued, productivity remains strong, and rising rental vacancies pressure housing costs lower.
“All these things say, look, inflation's going to moderate anyway.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-28 14:15 ET (5 min)
Bond yields at 6-7% on corporate debt are historically attractive and should be locked in now because the Fed is unlikely to raise rates as much as priced in, and inflation is expected to moderate
“Lock this stuff in because it's nothing if inflation comes back down to two”
This is giving ‘RESILIENCY’ to the market: JP Morgan Asset Management strategist
2026-10-05
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
10-year and 30-year yields have risen 100-140 bps YTD and are now attractive; the Fed is unlikely to raise twice more in 2024 as markets expect given moderating growth and inflation
“The level of yields is actually quite attractive”
This is giving ‘RESILIENCY’ to the market: JP Morgan Asset Management strategist
2026-10-05
Big Tech
bearish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Portfolios are over-concentrated in AI-exposed megacap names which represents a huge undiversified bet that warrants reduction at current elevated valuations
“think about how much of your portfolio is betting on A.I. and you really kind of want to reduce it because it's a huge bet”
This is giving ‘RESILIENCY’ to the market: JP Morgan Asset Management strategist
2026-10-05
JAPANESE EQUITIES
bullish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Japanese equities are priced more reasonably than US megacap tech and represent good value internationally as capital may rotate away from expensive US growth names
“Japan looks good also, and there are good companies around the world which are priced much more reasonably”
This is giving ‘RESILIENCY’ to the market: JP Morgan Asset Management strategist
2026-10-05
MASS-MARKET US CONSUMER COMPANIES (RESTAURANTS, STAPLES)
bearish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Six straight months of average hourly earnings rising below CPI means lower-middle income consumers are getting squeezed, pressuring revenue for companies serving the average American consumer
“for people selling to the average American, it's going to be tough”
This is giving ‘RESILIENCY’ to the market: JP Morgan Asset Management strategist
2026-09-11
short Big Tech / long VALUE EQUITIES, SMALL/MID CAP US, INTERNATIONAL EX-SELECT EM
pair
Bloomberg The Close · video
A Fed rate hike pushes long-term rates higher, directly compressing the multiples of high-PE long-duration US growth equities via the discount rate, while value, small/mid cap US equities, and international equities are relatively insulated and offer…
“negative for long-duration equities, which are those which have got the highest PE ratio”
Stocks, Bonds Rise as US Core CPI Tops Forecasts Bolstering Case for a Rate Hike
2024-10-11
US MID-LARGE CAP EQUITIES ($2B-$50B MARKET CAP)
bullish
The Compound · video
Companies in the $2B-$50B range trade at reasonable 15-18x PE multiples, are inefficiently priced relative to mega caps, and offer genuine stock-picking alpha at a time when the index-level expensive reading is driven almost entirely by Mag7 concentration
“I could find 20 billion dollar stocks all day long selling at 18 times earnings, 16 times earnings”
Living in a Post Cycle World | TCAF 161
The dollar has been overvalued for 50 years, sustaining a perpetual trade deficit since 1975 that hollows out manufacturing and funnels wealth to asset owners; gradual dollar decline is the correct mechanism to rebalance trade and grow the middle class
“the dollar is too high and we ought to allow the dollar come down gradually and that's the right way to equalize trade”
90d -7.9% · 180d -2.6% · 1y -1.5%
Living in a Post Cycle World | TCAF 161
2024-10-11
MAGNIFICENT 7 / US MEGA CAP EQUITIES
bearish
The Compound · video
Mag7 stocks carry outsized regulatory and antitrust risk, face rising capex competition eroding margins, and are priced at multiples that leave no room for disappointment; history suggests the most highly priced assets catch down rather than the rest catching…
“the things that are most highly priced are the most vulnerable”
Living in a Post Cycle World | TCAF 161
2024-10-11
International Dev
bullish
The Compound · video
International stocks are cheap on an absolute and relative basis while US investors are systematically underweight them, and a gradual dollar decline would provide a multi-year tailwind to unhedged international returns
“International stocks are cheap. I know everybody hates them but they're cheap”
90d -7.6% · 180d -5.3% · 1y +18.0%
Living in a Post Cycle World | TCAF 161
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