Founder & chief analyst, SemiAnalysis
3 dated public stances tracked since 2024-12-23, most recently 2024-12-23. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Dylan Patel's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Dylan Patel is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|
| 2024-12-23 | NVDA | bullish | -13.1% | +3.2% | +35.5% |
| 2024-12-23 | AVGO | bullish | -17.4% | +9.8% | +51.7% |
| 2024-12-23 | AMD | bearish | +8.6% | -4.0% | -72.5% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|
| AMD | 1 | | 1 bearish | 2024-12-23 |
| AVGO | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2024-12-23 |
| NVDA | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2024-12-23 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2024-12-23
AVGO
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
Broadcom has secured multiple custom ASIC wins across hyperscalers and is the critical networking vendor building the NV Switch competitor that non-NVIDIA AI infrastructure will depend on, giving it a durable long-term compounding position
“love broadcom long term”
90d -17.4% · 180d +9.8% · 1y +51.7%
AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2024-12-23
NVDA
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
Hyperscaler CapEx will accelerate materially in 2025 and inference-time reasoning requires roughly 50x more compute per query than standard generation, making NVIDIA's 2025 revenue growth trajectory stupendous
“growth rate for NVIDIA is going to be stupendous next year”
90d -13.1% · 180d +3.2% · 1y +35.5%
AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2024-12-23
AMD
bearish
Bg2 Pod · video
AMD lacks NVIDIA's software ecosystem and system-level design capability, so its share of total AI semiconductor revenue will fall in 2025 as Microsoft and Meta lean on it less, despite growing absolute dollar revenues
“their their share of total revenue will fall next year”
90d +8.6% · 180d -4.0% · 1y -72.5%
AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
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