What Eric Wallerstein is saying
Chief Macro Strategist, Clocktower Group
6 dated public stances tracked since 2024-09-04, most recently 2024-09-04. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Eric Wallerstein's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Eric Wallerstein is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
2024-09-04
FED RATE CUT EXPECTATIONS
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Strong US growth, rising productivity, and structurally high fiscal deficits running above the unemployment rate indefinitely give the Fed far less room to cut than markets price, making a path to 3% fed funds within 18 months too optimistic
“the path to a 3% fed funds rate over the next year or year and a half is too optimistic”
Why The Fed Shouldn’t Cut Rates | Eric Wallerstein
2024-09-04
China Equities
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
China's M1 money supply is collapsing, no stimulus is coming because the country is over-indebted with no productive investment opportunities, domestic consumers are shunning real estate, and an export-led recovery only exports deflation globally
“China looks like garbage like not a good calling night”
90d -17.4% · 180d -34.8% · 1y -51.9%
Why The Fed Shouldn’t Cut Rates | Eric Wallerstein
2024-09-04
SPX
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
US productivity gains from AI and tech, an economy less sensitive to interest rates dominated by cash-rich mega-caps earning net interest income, and superior growth relative to the rest of the world support an S&P 500 target of 8,000 by end of decade
“we have an 8,000 Target by the end of the decade”
90d +10.0% · 180d +6.6% · 1y +19.3%
Why The Fed Shouldn’t Cut Rates | Eric Wallerstein
2024-09-04
Long Dur Treasuries
neutral
Forward Guidance · video
Persistent fiscal deficits above the unemployment rate for the foreseeable future and structural upside inflation risk anchor the 10-year yield at 4–4.5%, preventing meaningful bond price appreciation while also limiting a repeat of the 2020–2022 crash
“four four and a quarter four and a half is more realistic on the 10year”
Why The Fed Shouldn’t Cut Rates | Eric Wallerstein
2024-09-04
European Equities
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
European manufacturing is being obliterated by Chinese export dumping, fiscal consolidation is removing the French deficit-spending impulse that drove post-pandemic growth, and non-zero EU fragmentation risk from rising far-right/far-left parties makes cheap…
“I don't really like Europe”
90d +4.4% · 180d -3.9% · 1y -16.3%
Why The Fed Shouldn’t Cut Rates | Eric Wallerstein
2024-09-04
long GOLD / long OIL
basket
Forward Guidance · video
Overweight gold and energy as a hedge against geopolitical crises and upside inflation risk in a world where persistently high fiscal deficits and positive stock-bond correlation mean bonds no longer reliably protect portfolios
“we've been overweight gold overweight energy as like or overweight oil whatever you want to do as a way to play that”
90d +5.4% · 180d +10.5% · 1y +24.2%
Why The Fed Shouldn’t Cut Rates | Eric Wallerstein
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