Founder, managing partner & CIO, Durable Capital Partners
6 dated public stances tracked since 2025-12-16, most recently 2025-12-16. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Henry Ellenbogen's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Henry Ellenbogen is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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Returns 90d -29.5% 0% correct · 5 calls · 180d -20.1% 0% correct · 5 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|
| 2025-12-16 | FSV | bullish | -8.1% | -6.8% | — |
| 2025-12-16 | DUOL | bullish | -45.4% | -32.0% | — |
| 2025-12-16 | CVNA | bullish | -32.8% | -24.3% | — |
| 2025-12-16 | CIGI | bullish | -26.2% | -35.2% | — |
| 2025-12-16 | AFRM | bullish | -35.0% | -2.0% | — |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|
| AFRM | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2025-12-16 |
| CIGI | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2025-12-16 |
| CVNA | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2025-12-16 |
| DUOL | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2025-12-16 |
| FSV | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2025-12-16 |
| PHYSICAL DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES LEVERAGING ROBOTICS EARLY | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2025-12-16 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2025-12-16
PHYSICAL DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES LEVERAGING ROBOTICS EARLY
bullish
Invest Like the Best · video
Companies that have already built physical distribution infrastructure (fulfillment centers, reconditioning centers, logistics networks) and are early adopters of robotics will ride a 15–20% annual cost deflation curve while laggard competitors stay flat or…
“we wake up in 5 years and the people who put themselves on one cost curve...those could be power law businesses”
Finding The 1% of Stocks That Matter | Henry Ellenbogen Interview
2025-12-16
CIGI
bullish
Invest Like the Best · video
Colliers is deeply misunderstood as a cyclical commercial real estate broker when it has in fact built a high-quality real estate asset management business (Harrison Street) and an emerging consulting platform, making it structurally better than the…
“the asset quality of Colliers is not the quality of a commercial real estate firm that's cyclical”
90d -26.2% · 180d -35.2%
Finding The 1% of Stocks That Matter | Henry Ellenbogen Interview
2025-12-16
FSV
bullish
Invest Like the Best · video
First Service is a durable compounder driven by Jay Hennick's distinctive ability to decentralize incentives, attract and retain talent, and allocate capital sharply across fragmented service verticals — a soft competitive moat that is underappreciated…
“if you really have studied Jay and you truly understand his human capital culture...it's just super impressive”
90d -8.1% · 180d -6.8%
Finding The 1% of Stocks That Matter | Henry Ellenbogen Interview
2025-12-16
DUOL
bullish
Invest Like the Best · video
Duolingo is purpose-built for AI — the founder taught AI at Carnegie Mellon, the organization is agile, and AI already enables the company to build products like Chess 4–6x faster with a fraction of the headcount, expanding from point solution to suite while…
“this company was purpose-built for AI...the discount rate has gone up but probably commensurate the opportunity has also gone up”
90d -45.4% · 180d -32.0%
Finding The 1% of Stocks That Matter | Henry Ellenbogen Interview
2025-12-16
AFRM
bullish
Invest Like the Best · video
Affirm can sustain strong growth without adding headcount because AI allows it to lean out its large compliance and legal cost base — hundreds of thousands of merchant contracts and regulatory monitoring processes that previously required enormous headcount…
“he's got great belief that a firm can grow at the rates it's growing at...without adding headcount”
90d -35.0% · 180d -2.0%
Finding The 1% of Stocks That Matter | Henry Ellenbogen Interview
2025-12-16
CVNA
bullish
Invest Like the Best · video
Carvana's reconditioning centers constitute a physical real-estate moat — the land acquisition, network placement, capital investment, and operating culture required to build them cannot be quickly replicated by competitors, and this physical infrastructure…
“I love their reconditioning centers because at the end of the day you can't spin those things up”
90d -32.8% · 180d -24.3%
Finding The 1% of Stocks That Matter | Henry Ellenbogen Interview
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