Investors / stance tracking
What Howard Marks is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital
48 dated public stances tracked since 2015-11-11, most recently 2026-10-30. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Howard Marks's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Howard Marks is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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48
tracked stances
27
themes
2
side flips
2026-10-30
last heard
Returns 90d -6.3% 32% correct · 19 calls · 180d -6.2% 53% correct · 19 calls · 1y -13.0% 50% correct · 14 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | USTS | bearish | +0.3% | +3.1% | — |
| 2026-03-02 | long MSFT / short SPX | pair | +2.5% | +7.7% | — |
| 2026-03-02 | TSLA | bearish | -3.1% | +8.8% | — |
| 2026-03-02 | SPX | bearish | -10.8% | -12.4% | — |
| 2026-01-05 | Investment Grade Credit | bullish | -0.3% | +0.6% | — |
| 2025-08-20 | USTS | bullish | +2.2% | +3.7% | +1.2% |
| 2025-08-20 | SPX | bearish | -3.7% | -7.6% | -20.8% |
| 2025-04-16 | long USTS / short SPX | pair | -9.4% | -11.4% | -15.3% |
| 2025-04-16 | USTS | bullish | -0.1% | +4.1% | +4.4% |
| 2025-04-16 | SPX | bearish | -18.7% | -26.9% | -35.0% |
| 2025-04-16 | NVDA | bearish | -63.4% | -80.2% | -89.9% |
| 2024-08-21 | USTS | bullish | -3.3% | -3.3% | +1.1% |
| 2024-08-21 | Private Credit | bullish | +6.7% | +16.7% | +16.3% |
| 2023-10-04 | Commercial Real Estate | bearish | -22.4% | -17.8% | -35.1% |
| 2023-10-03 | USTS | bullish | +7.8% | +5.8% | +12.8% |
| 2023-10-03 | Private Credit | bullish | +9.2% | +13.8% | +21.9% |
| 2023-06-01 | SPX | bearish | -7.3% | -8.6% | -26.8% |
| 2023-01-18 | SPX | bearish | -6.2% | -16.0% | -23.6% |
| 2023-01-18 | High Yield | bullish | -0.2% | +1.4% | +6.9% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USTS | 8 | 6 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral | 2026-10-22 | |
| SPX | 7 | 6 bearish / 1 neutral | 2026-09-20 | |
| Private Credit | 3 | 2 bullish / 1 neutral | 2026-03-18 | |
| BITCOIN | 2 | 2 neutral | 2026-10-22 | |
| GOLD | 2 | 2 neutral | 2026-10-22 | |
| AI / AI-RELATED EQUITIES (BROAD THEME) | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-03-02 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-30
long AI EQUITIES / short Private Credit
pair
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
AI's extreme uncertainty makes equity preferable to debt — equity captures unlimited upside if AI succeeds while debt investors have no upside and only degrees of downside, so don't lend to highly uncertain AI companies
“if you want to invest in AI, you should probably buy the stocks”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-30 13:02 ET (5 min)
2026-10-30
POWER INFRASTRUCTURE
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Power will be a structural bottleneck as AI infrastructure needs to scale 3–10x in coming years and supply cannot keep pace, making power-focused firms a safer way to play the AI buildout
“power is gonna be a real bottleneck because they want to increase the infrastructure three to ten times”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-30 13:02 ET (5 min)
2026-10-30
Ai Infra
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Power will be a real bottleneck as AI infrastructure demand needs to grow 3–10x, making power-adjacent infrastructure credit a safer way to gain AI exposure than betting on which model providers win
“power is gonna be a real bottleneck because they want to increase the infrastructure three to 10 times”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-30 13:07 ET (5 min)
High yield bonds currently yield ~7% with contractually fixed returns, offering equity-like returns at lower risk in a worrisome equity environment where investors no longer need to rely as heavily on riskier assets to meet return targets
“IO bonds yield around seven... there are lots of managed products that'll deliver”
Howard Marks on the AI Boom: Why Today Rhymes With the Dot-Com Bubble
Gold has no intrinsic value derivable from cash flows, making analytical price targets impossible and historical real returns lackluster—7.7% annually since 2010 vs. 12.7% for the S&P 500
“It's been a lackluster investment”
Howard Marks on the AI Boom: Why Today Rhymes With the Dot-Com Bubble
Bitcoin produces no cash flows and therefore has no intrinsic value, making rational price discovery impossible—price is solely a function of market sentiment with no analytical anchor
“how can you invest analytically... if they don't have cash flow to base that conclusion on”
Howard Marks on the AI Boom: Why Today Rhymes With the Dot-Com Bubble
2026-10-22
ESTABLISHED LARGE-CAP TECH COMPANIES
bullish
Howard Marks · video
Pre-existing profitable tech giants offer AI upside optionality without existential risk—they remain in business and profitable even if AI proves less transformative than hoped, avoiding the binary sink-or-swim nature of pure-plays
“still be in business and profitable if it's not that big a deal”
Howard Marks on the AI Boom: Why Today Rhymes With the Dot-Com Bubble
2026-10-22
AI PURE-PLAY STARTUPS
bearish
Howard Marks · video
Most AI pure-play companies will end up worthless because technological innovation doesn't guarantee investor profits—unclear use cases, potential margin erosion from competition, and possible savings accruing entirely to consumers rather than producers…
“most of the companies people are investing in today will end up worthless”
Howard Marks on the AI Boom: Why Today Rhymes With the Dot-Com Bubble
Optimists have ruled markets since October 2022 driving the S&P to double, pushing prices above intrinsic value and warranting a defensive posture
“when the optimists rule prices tend to be high relative to intrinsic value which means that it's a time for a little bit of caution”
Howard Marks Flags the Uncertainty in AI Investing
2026-06-12
SOFTWARE SECTOR CREDIT / DISTRESSED DEBT IN SOFTWARE
bullish
Howard Marks · video
Market worry about distressed debt spiking in the software sector is universally excessive because revenues are not declining and most companies have no problem servicing debt, so actual defaults will be far fewer than feared
“I personally think the level of worry and the universality of worry with regard to software is probably excessive”
Catching Up With Power Investors Howard Marks and Bruce Flatt | At Barron's
2026-03-18
long AI / TECH COMPANY EQUITIES / short USTS
pair
video
AI companies carry fundamental business-model risk over multi-year horizons that is unknowable, so investors bearing that risk should own equity for upside rather than accept capped bond returns
“if you're going to put money into a company who's supposed to AI, you should probably buy the stock”
Google issuing 100-year bonds at 5.8% exemplifies peak market optimism and credulousness, making such instruments unlikely to produce returns commensurate with the risk over such an unknowable timeframe
“optimism, not pessimism, credulousness, not skepticism, are in the ascendancy today”
90d +0.3% · 180d +3.1%
Oaktree's Marks Weighs In on Big Tech Debt Sales
2026-03-18
AI / TECH COMPANY EQUITY VS. DEBT
bullish
Howard Marks · video
For companies exposed to AI, buying equity rather than lending (buying bonds) is preferable because equity captures the upside if the AI thesis plays out, while debt only offers a fixed return with full downside risk
“if you're going to put money into a company exposed to AI, you should probably buy the stock”
Oaktree's Marks Weighs In on Big Tech Debt Sales
2026-03-18
Private Credit
neutral
video
The liquidity premium for private credit has compressed to roughly 125bps over public credit — adequate but not lush — meaning private credit has lost its specialness and is now at parity with public markets
“private was at equilibrium with public. It was a fair deal, but not more”
Said again: 2026-03-24
2026-03-02
long MSFT / short SPX
pair
Howard Marks · video
Passive indexation mechanically bids up all S&P constituents, inflating the 493 non-Magnificent-7 names to 18-19x PE — above the 80-year historical average of 16x — while the Mag 7 at roughly 30x is defensible given dominant moats, near-zero marginal costs on…
“people automatically put money into the S&P companies which I think causes a bunch of them to be selling at prices above what they're worth”
90d +2.5% · 180d +7.7%
Fireside Chat with Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management
2026-03-02
MAGNIFICENT 7 (EX-TESLA)
bullish
Howard Marks · video
Six of the Magnificent 7 trade at ~30x earnings, roughly double the historical S&P average but far below the Nifty 50 bubble multiples of 60-90x, and their dominant moats, scale, and near-zero marginal cost economics justify elevated valuations.
“30 looks like a bargain to me for a truly great company”
Fireside Chat with Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management
2026-03-02
AI / AI-RELATED EQUITIES (BROAD THEME)
bearish
Howard Marks · video
AI exhibits classic indicia of bubble behavior—e.g., a secretive startup raising $2B with no disclosed product at a $12B valuation—suggesting prices may be irrational relative to intrinsic value, though the technology's transformative potential makes the…
“we have what the lawyers call indicia of bubble behavior”
Fireside Chat with Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management
The 493 non-Magnificent-7 S&P 500 companies trade at ~18-19x earnings, above the 80-year historical average of 16x, inflated by passive index-buying flows rather than fundamental merit, making them overpriced relative to intrinsic value.
“I think that's where the error lies...people have embraced indexation to the S&P as the default solution”
90d -10.8% · 180d -12.4%
Fireside Chat with Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management
2026-03-02
PRIVATE EQUITY / LEVERAGED BUYOUTS
bearish
Howard Marks · video
Private equity's historical outperformance was largely driven by a 40-year tailwind of declining interest rates that simultaneously raised asset values and cut borrowing costs; with rates now structurally higher, it is no longer rational to expect similar…
“It would not be rational”
Fireside Chat with Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management
Tesla trades at a much higher multiple than its Magnificent 7 peers while generating comparatively little earnings, making it the outlier exception that is difficult to justify on fundamentals.
“Tesla is the exception...sells at much higher multiple and doesn't make much money”
90d -3.1% · 180d +8.8%
Fireside Chat with Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management
Gold produces no cash flow and therefore has no analytical framework to determine fair value; its status as a store of value rests entirely on circular collective belief rather than any intrinsic economic mechanism.
“there's nothing that makes gold a store of value other than the fact that people treat it as a store of value”
Fireside Chat with Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management
Bitcoin has no intrinsic value and no cash-flow mechanism to anchor a fair price, deriving worth solely from collective human agreement, placing it in the same analytically unverifiable category as gold and other non-cash-producing assets.
“Bitcoin has no value other than the value that people accorded”
Fireside Chat with Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management
2026-01-05
Investment Grade Credit
bullish
video
Non-investment grade lending instruments contractually yield 7-8-9% today while the S&P 500 is priced to return ~2% or less, making credit a superior risk-adjusted allocation and warranting an overweight shift from equities toward lending in most portfolios
“if you can buy lending securities with a promise of 7 8% return why would you invest in speculative uncertain ownership strategies”
90d -0.3% · 180d +0.6%
The S&P 500 is priced for subnormal returns of roughly 2% or less because the non-Mag7 constituents trade at ~19-20x earnings versus a historical average of 14-15x, making the index expensive on a broad basis even though the Mag7 at ~30x are not insanely dear
“the S&P 500 is priced to give subnormal returns today of like two or less”
2026-01-05
MICRO-CAP STABLE BUSINESSES (SUB-$1B MARKET CAP)
bullish
video
Stable companies with market caps below $1B are systematically overlooked because institutional money managers with significant AUM cannot economically cover them, creating a persistent undervaluation that makes the space a viable hunting ground
“micro caps would mostly be undervalued... probably a good place to look”
2025-08-21
NON-US INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES
bullish
Howard Marks · video
International equities trade at cheaper valuations than the US, offering reasonable diversification value even if underlying business quality is lower, as the US may be 'a little less best than it used to be'
“if they're on sale relative to the US it's not unreasonable to want some representation”
US Stocks 'In The Early Days' For A Bubble Says Oaktree’s Howard Marks
Credit offers a contractual promised return in the high single digits that is highly likely to deliver mid-to-high single-digit net returns over 10 years, making it more defensive than equities at current elevated stock valuations even with tight spreads
“a contractual guarantee approaching something in the sixes over the next 10 years is more defensive than being in the stock market”
90d +2.2% · 180d +3.7% · 1y +1.2%
Oaktree’s Marks Says Stocks Are in Early Days of a Bubble (full interview)
Said again: 2025-08-21 (Howard Marks)
The other 493 S&P 500 stocks are highly valued relative to history yet are not exceptional-quality companies, making elevated valuations applied to average companies more alarming than high valuations on the Magnificent 7
“exceptional valuations are being applied to exceptional companies”
90d -3.7% · 180d -7.6% · 1y -20.8%
Oaktree’s Marks Says Stocks Are in Early Days of a Bubble (full interview)
Said again: 2025-08-21 (Howard Marks)
2025-04-16
long USTS / short SPX
pair
Howard Marks · video
High yield bonds at 7.3% contractual yield are superior to equities where current S&P PE ratios historically imply low single-digit returns over the next decade and the equity risk premium has turned negative relative to treasuries for the first time since…
“if you can get low single-digit returns from the S&P with great uncertainty and 7.3 from high yield bonds contractually. Isn't it better?”
90d -9.4% · 180d -11.4% · 1y -15.3%
Howard Marks: Global Alts Miami 2025
High yield bonds currently yield 7.3% contractually, which compares favorably to S&P 500 expected low single-digit returns with far greater uncertainty, making the risk-adjusted case compelling
“If you can get low single-digit returns from the S&P with great uncertainty and 7.3 from high yield bonds contractually, isn't it better?”
90d -0.1% · 180d +4.1% · 1y +4.4%
Howard Marks: Global Alts Miami 2025
At current PE ratios, historical data shows S&P returns of minus 2% to 2% over a decade, making equities unattractive relative to high yield bonds offering 7.3% contractually
“The outlook for ownership returns is not as good as it usually is relative to the risks entailed”
90d -18.7% · 180d -26.9% · 1y -35.0%
Howard Marks: Global Alts Miami 2025
The DeepSeek-driven selloff in Nvidia was driven by a specific competitive threat that was fundamentally justified, but the cascading selloff into unrelated assets was purely psychological, not fundamental
“The development with regard to Deep Seek was very specific, a competitive threat to their activity, full stop”
90d -63.4% · 180d -80.2% · 1y -89.9%
Howard Marks: Global Alts Miami 2025
2025-04-16
DISTRESSED DEBT / CREDIT OPPORTUNITIES
owns
Howard Marks · video
Companies saddled with capital structures built on ultra-low rates will struggle to refinance debt coming due in 2026-2027 at rates 400-500bps higher, creating significant distressed buying opportunities
“We've raised a big fund to do it, which is only half invested”
Howard Marks: Global Alts Miami 2025
The sea change from declining/ultra-low rates to a normalized higher-rate regime makes credit instruments offering high-single-digit yields highly competitive with historical equity returns and far more certain in their payoffs, reducing the need to take…
“lending or credit or fixed income investing may be better off today than equity investing”
90d -3.3% · 180d -3.3% · 1y +1.1%
Navigating the Sea Change with Howard Marks at Oaktree Conference 2024
2024-08-21
Private Credit
bullish
Howard Marks · video
Private credit yields in the double digits exceed most investors' required returns and carry less uncertainty than equity returns, making them attractive in a normalized interest-rate environment.
“yields on private credit are in the double digits”
90d +6.7% · 180d +16.7% · 1y +16.3%
Navigating the Sea Change with Howard Marks at Oaktree Conference 2024
2024-08-21
EQUITIES (BROAD)
bearish
Howard Marks · video
Strategies that produced superior performance during the era of declining and ultra-low rates—including equity and leveraged ownership strategies—may not deliver the same results in a normalized, higher-rate environment where profit margins, leverage…
“strategies that produce superior performance in the period of declining and ultra-low rates may not be the ones that do so in the years ahead”
Navigating the Sea Change with Howard Marks at Oaktree Conference 2024
2023-10-04
DISTRESSED DEBT
bullish
Howard Marks · video
Rising rates and tightening lending standards will force more companies to face unmet debt maturities, driving defaults toward and above the 4% long-run average after a 15-year suppression, creating a richer distressed debt opportunity set
“clearly many more companies are going to founder”
Oaktree's Howard Mark on Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein
2023-10-04
Commercial Real Estate
bearish
Howard Marks · video
Commercial real estate borrowers face refinancing at lower loan amounts and much higher rates, creating a capital hole that many cannot fill and leading to widespread defaults
“you have less money and your cost of capital is higher and you have a $300 million hole you can't fill”
90d -22.4% · 180d -17.8% · 1y -35.1%
Oaktree's Howard Mark on Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein
2023-10-04
PRIVATE EQUITY / VENTURE CAPITAL
bearish
Howard Marks · video
Private equity benefited from a decade of artificially low rates that inflated returns and disguised mediocre operators; as rates normalize to 2-4%, the tailwind reverses and relative attractiveness versus safer credit instruments diminishes
“all the geniuses of private equity...we've been benefited from low interest rates”
Oaktree's Howard Mark on Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein
High yield bonds and leveraged loans now offer high single-digit returns competitive with equities while carrying structurally superior safety because creditors are paid before equity holders and receive the company in bankruptcy
“you can get high single digits on high yield bonds and leverage loans”
90d +7.8% · 180d +5.8% · 1y +12.8%
Howard Marks: You Can Get Equity Type Returns on Credit Instruments
Said again: 2023-10-04 (Howard Marks)
2023-10-03
Private Credit
bullish
Howard Marks · video
Private loans for large buyouts are currently yielding low double digits, offering equity-competitive returns with the structural safety advantage of senior credit claims over equity residuals
“low double digits on private loans for buyouts — double-digit returns, isn't that enough”
90d +9.2% · 180d +13.8% · 1y +21.9%
Howard Marks: You Can Get Equity Type Returns on Credit Instruments
At ~19x P/E versus a 16x post-war average, with a 5.5% earnings yield that does not clear current inflation, the index is modestly overvalued and due for adjustment as it has not yet repriced for a structurally higher-rate regime
“the Market's somewhat overvalued... the PE Ratio is 19 maybe on the S&P 500 the post-war average is 16”
90d -7.3% · 180d -8.6% · 1y -26.8%
2023 Value Investing Conference | Keynote Speaker: Howard Marks
2023-06-01
HIGH-YIELD CREDIT
bullish
Howard Marks · video
Structurally higher base rates combined with adequate yield spreads produce the most attractive prospective credit returns in over a decade, reversing the era when high-yield bonds yielded as low as 2–3%
“we as credit investors have adequate base rates decent yield spreads and attractive total prospective returns”
2023 Value Investing Conference | Keynote Speaker: Howard Marks
2023-01-18
DISTRESSED DEBT / CREDIT
bullish
Howard Marks · video
Rising defaults toward more historically normal levels (~4%) create opportunities to buy distressed company debt at discounts where creditors can gain equity ownership at reasonable valuations in businesses with sound models
“we can buy the debt at a place in the capital structure where we create ownership in that company potentially at a reasonable valuation”
Oaktree's Howard Marks on Markets, Fed Rates, Inflation
Equity markets are currently pricing in significant optimism around a soft landing and Fed pivot, which Marks believes is not warranted given his expectation the Fed will remain restrictive, making current levels unattractive
“in many areas in the stock market a significant degree of optimism is ruling the day today”
90d -6.2% · 180d -16.0% · 1y -23.6%
Oaktree's Howard Marks on Markets, Fed Rates, Inflation
High yield prices are roughly fairly valued at current levels but yields will not continue to fall as the Fed intends to hold rates higher for longer throughout the year, limiting further upside
“the current prices are roughly sustainable...yields are not going to keep coming down in my opinion”
Oaktree's Howard Marks on Markets, Fed Rates, Inflation
2023-01-18
High Yield
bullish
Howard Marks · video
Higher default rates returning to ~4% historical norms create buying opportunities in debt of fundamentally viable companies where creditors can acquire ownership at reasonable capital-structure valuations
“buy the debt at a place in the capital structure where we create ownership in that company potentially at a reasonable valuation”
90d -0.2% · 180d +1.4% · 1y +6.9%
Oaktree's Howard Marks on Markets, Fed Rates, Inflation
High yield bonds at ~5% yields offer asymmetric downside — survivable credits pay a known coupon with optionality on credit upgrades or buyouts, and even a bad outcome at these yields is not fatal to a portfolio, unlike leveraged or equity risk
“nobody ever went broke making 5%... it's not going to be a fatal mistake”
Howard Marks: A Conversation with Howard Marks and Mike Milken (Milken Institute – 2013)
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