Founder, Citrini Research
6 dated public stances tracked since 2025-04-07, most recently 2025-05-17. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of James van Geelen's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. James van Geelen is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
2025-05-17
MCHP
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Robotics supply chain companies are hitting a cyclical trough in the auto cycle while simultaneously positioned for secular re-rating as humanoid robots proliferate and US government spending accelerates to close the gap with China's robotics lead
“the time to invest I think personally is now because the valuations will get much more forgiving than this”
90d +9.3% · 180d -8.2% · 1y +57.7%
The Time To Invest Is Now
2025-05-16
long RRX / long ROLL / long ROK / long ABB (+2 legs)
basket
Forward Guidance · video
Automotive cycle has bottomed per multiple CEO quotes (Microchip, Infineon, Regal Rexnord, ON Semi), creating cyclical lows in industrial names that also carry a thin-priced secular option on robotics as US government spending accelerates to close the China…
“the tail of robotics that's priced in is super super skinny”
90d +11.0% · 180d +12.1% · 1y +73.9%
The Next Big Trade Is Hiding In Plain Sight | Citrini
2025-05-16
long INDUSTRIALS / long USTS
hedge
Forward Guidance · video
Long cyclical industrial and robotics equities hedged with long 1-year US rates because a recession scenario would send rates below current 4% pricing, making the macro tail hedge self-financing rather than forgoing the micro opportunity entirely
90d +4.0% · 180d +6.6% · 1y +11.8%
The Next Big Trade Is Hiding In Plain Sight | Citrini
2025-05-16
DEFENSE
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
The Big Beautiful Bill is structured as a wartime budget with massive increases in missile defense (Golden Dome), naval shipbuilding (from a stagnant 1.3% of defense budget), drones, and advanced fighters where the US lags China — these stocks were wrongly…
“this bill looks a lot more like a wartime bill than a peace sign bill”
90d +14.1% · 180d +22.5% · 1y +28.8%
The Next Big Trade Is Hiding In Plain Sight | Citrini
2025-05-16
NVDA
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Nvidia's Isaac Sim, Groot, and Jetson platform create a defensible software moat as the de facto brain for humanoid robot training regardless of which hardware maker wins, with simulation compressing thousands of hours of motion training into minutes
“if you want to train a robot to be as good as possible, you're going to be doing it with Nvidia software”
90d +34.4% · 180d +43.2% · 1y +64.2%
The Next Big Trade Is Hiding In Plain Sight | Citrini
2025-04-07
long DEFENSE / short DEFENSE
pair
Hidden Forces · video
Trump enforcing NATO 2% GDP defense spending mandate is a structural boost for European defense budgets while proposed US domestic government spending cuts are a headwind for US defense contractors, making the long/short spread attractive
“Trump is going to enforce the 2% of your GDP spend for NATO and that's massively massively bullish for European defense”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
Are We About to Enter the First White-Collar Recession? | James van Geelen
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