Investors / stance tracking
What Jeffrey Gundlach is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital
186 dated public stances tracked since 2013-05-29, most recently 2026-10-28. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Jeffrey Gundlach's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Jeffrey Gundlach is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
186
tracked stances
68
themes
11
side flips
2026-10-28
last heard
Returns 90d -0.4% 44% correct · 112 calls · 180d -0.5% 43% correct · 95 calls · 1y -2.6% 43% correct · 65 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | long SPX / short SPX | pair | +0.0% | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | long USTS / short USTS | spread | +0.0% | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | USTS | bullish | -0.4% | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | Private Credit | bearish | -3.8% | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | OIL | bullish | +28.5% | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | GOLD | bullish | -2.7% | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +12.4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | long SPX / short SPX | pair | +0.0% | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | long Investment Grade Credit / short USTS | pair | +0.3% | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | long USTS / short USTS | spread | +0.0% | — | — |
| 2026-06-18 | Long Dur Treasuries | bullish | -5.7% | — | — |
| 2026-06-18 | Em Equities | bullish | -7.2% | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | USD | bearish | -0.3% | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | SPX | bearish | -2.4% | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | MSCI | bullish | -8.3% | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | Data Center Reits | bearish | +2.6% | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +2.0% | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | GOLD | bearish | +11.5% | +11.9% | — |
| 2026-03-31 | long Long Dur Treasuries / short Long Dur Treasuries | pair | +0.0% | +0.0% | — |
| 2026-03-31 | long Em Equities / short USD | pair | +8.6% | +7.8% | — |
| 2026-03-31 | MUNIS | bearish | -2.3% | +3.7% | — |
| 2026-03-27 | Investment Grade Credit | bearish | -3.0% | +1.1% | — |
| 2026-03-27 | High Yield | bearish | -3.0% | -2.2% | — |
| 2026-03-27 | CASH | bullish | +0.8% | +1.7% | — |
| 2026-03-24 | Commodities Broad | bullish | -2.9% | +15.4% | — |
| 2026-03-24 | CMBS | bullish | +0.4% | -0.5% | — |
| 2026-03-18 | long Investment Grade Credit / short High Yield | pair | -0.4% | -1.8% | — |
| 2026-03-02 | SPX | bearish | -10.8% | -12.4% | — |
| 2026-03-02 | Private Credit | bearish | -3.2% | -11.4% | — |
| 2026-03-02 | Gold Miners | bullish | -24.8% | -14.6% | — |
| 2026-03-02 | Em Equities | bullish | +14.0% | +9.5% | — |
| 2026-03-02 | China Equities | bearish | +4.2% | +3.4% | — |
| 2026-01-29 | long USTS / short Private Credit | pair | +2.3% | -0.1% | — |
| 2026-01-29 | long USTS / short USTS | spread | +0.0% | +0.0% | — |
| 2026-01-29 | USTS | bearish | +0.3% | +0.6% | — |
| 2026-01-29 | SILVER | bullish | -38.6% | -51.0% | — |
| 2026-01-29 | GOLD | bullish | -15.8% | -25.5% | — |
| 2026-01-29 | BITCOIN | bearish | +10.4% | +24.5% | — |
| 2026-01-20 | USD | bearish | -0.4% | -4.3% | — |
| 2026-01-20 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -1.6% | +1.0% | — |
Showing the 40 most recent of 112 scored calls.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
TIPS — bullish2026-08-03 → bearish2026-09-16
Long Dur Treasuries — bullish2026-06-18 → bearish2026-09-10
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2026-05-07 → bullish2026-06-18
Long Dur Treasuries — bullish2023-03-02 → bearish2023-10-18
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 flips.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USTS | 12 | 5 bullish / 4 bearish / 3 neutral | 2026-09-10 | |
| GOLD | 9 | 8 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-08-03 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 9 | 2 bullish / 7 bearish | 2026-09-10 | |
| SPX | 9 | 9 bearish | 2026-09-16 | |
| USD | 6 | 6 bearish | 2026-09-16 | |
| Em Equities | 5 | 5 bullish | 2026-09-17 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-28
long SPX / long USTS / long LOCAL-CURRENCY EMERGING-MARKET DEBT / long Commodities Broad (+2 legs)
basket
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Hold a defensive diversified portfolio because equity valuations are high and credit spreads are widening, while local-currency emerging-market debt should benefit from a weaker dollar and commodities retain favorable momentum.
“I only want the equities to be in equal weighted S&P. I don't like the cap weighted S&P.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-28 15:20 ET (5 min)
2026-10-28
US HEADLINE CPI INFLATION
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Headline CPI will exceed 4% for several months because Gundlach's inflation model heavily weights energy prices, which have risen dramatically and should keep inflation elevated until favorable base effects arrive.
“We're going to start seeing the headline CPI left of the decimal point start with a four.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-28 15:05 ET (5 min)
2026-10-28
US POLICY RATES
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
The Federal Reserve should raise interest rates because inflation remains problematic, economic growth is strong, financial conditions are not tight, and Treasury-market pricing points toward higher rates.
“I think the Fed should be raising interest rates.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-28 15:05 ET (5 min)
2026-10-28
US INTEREST RATES
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Interest rates should rise because massive government deficits and AI-related borrowing are increasing capital demand while inflation and commodity prices remain elevated.
“I feel like rates should be rising in the meetings ahead.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-28 15:10 ET (5 min)
2026-10-28
HIGHER FED POLICY RATE
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
The Fed will probably hike in December because oil above $100, compounded by shipping surcharges, will sustain elevated inflation unless crude prices break lower.
“Base case is probably a hike in December.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-28 15:15 ET (5 min)
2026-10-13
long TIPS / short TIPS
pair
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
30-year TIPS yield has moved in lockstep with nominal bonds for six years (no rate protection), while short-duration TIPS (5yr and in) genuinely insulate against inflation — people rotating into long TIPS for protection are making the wrong trade
“rates went up 500 basis points on nominals, they also went up 500 basis points on tips”
Jeffrey Gundlach vs. Rick Rule: Has the Fed Lost the Bond Market?
2026-10-09
long USTS / long USTS
hedge
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Barbell a bond portfolio between the safest US dollar MBS/government intermediate strategy and the riskiest available (local currency EM bonds), combining low-duration safety with ~7% EM yields that benefit from expected dollar decline
“I believe the currencies is going to work for you”
Jeffrey Gundlach with Dave Rosenberg: The Hollow Tree
2026-10-09
long US EQUAL-WEIGHTED EQUITY INDEX / short SPX
pair
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Cap-weighted US equity indices mask widespread deterioration (440 of 500 S&P stocks down 21%+ from highs); equal-weighted captures the same market beta without concentration risk in a handful of AI names propping up the index
Jeffrey Gundlach with Dave Rosenberg: The Hollow Tree
2026-09-30
long CMBS / long EM LOCAL CURRENCY DEBT
other
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
A barbell pairing safe non-corporate securitized credit (2-7yr CMBS, seasoned non-agency RMBS, AAA CLOs) with high-yielding EM local currency debt captures carry and dollar-decline upside while avoiding corporate credit risk and excessive duration—this is…
“it's owning something that has no corporate bonds...and then I add local currency emerging market debt”
Gundlach: Rates, Risk and the Road Ahead
2026-09-30
Mortgage Reits
bullish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Homeowners who bought at 100 now sitting at 180 will sell before defaulting, making seasoned (5+ year old) non-agency RMBS effectively risk-free while yielding 140bps over Treasuries with limited prepayment risk near par—superior risk-adjusted return vs.…
“you have to be dumb as a rock to default on your house that you bought at 100 and is now at 180”
Gundlach: Rates, Risk and the Road Ahead
Said again: 2026-10-09 (Jeffrey Gundlach)
2026-09-30
AAA
bullish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
AAA CLOs float with the Fed eliminating duration risk, carry massive subordination buffers that make credit losses virtually impossible outside a total private-credit collapse, and available via growing dedicated ETFs; near risk-free carry above Treasuries.
“the AAA CLOs do appear to be almost risk-free”
Gundlach: Rates, Risk and the Road Ahead
Said again: 2026-10-09 (Jeffrey Gundlach)
2026-09-17
long SPX / short SPX
pair
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
AI/tech concentration in the cap-weighted S&P has reached ~40% — a level consistent with historical mania-cycle apogees where concentration reverses — and AI stocks are already underperforming non-AI stocks; equal-weight eliminates that concentration risk and…
“it completely eliminates the overconcentration in this one sector which is at about 40%”
Jeffrey Gundlach: Fed Needed ‘Stun and Done’ Hike of 50 bps | CNBC
2026-09-17
Em Equities
bullish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
EM local currency bonds are the best-performing sector of the global bond market in the current environment and offer a positive-return fixed-income option that Gundlach continues to hold with high conviction
“the best performing sector of the global bond market, which I've also recommended and continue to recommend with confidence”
Jeffrey Gundlach: Fed Needed ‘Stun and Done’ Hike of 50 bps | CNBC
Said again: 2026-09-30 (Jeffrey Gundlach)
2026-09-17
SHORT-DURATION SECURITIZED CREDIT (2–7 YEAR)
bullish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Concentrating in higher-quality securitized products at 2–7 year maturities avoids duration risk from persistently elevated inflation while generating positive returns; this strategy is up ~2% YTD vs the Bloomberg Aggregate down 1.5%
“concentrating on higher tiers of credit but more like seven years down to two years has delivered positive returns”
Jeffrey Gundlach: Fed Needed ‘Stun and Done’ Hike of 50 bps | CNBC
2026-09-16
long USTS / long Em Equities
other
Julia La Roche Show · video
Fixed income barbell pairing zero-corporate high-quality short-duration bonds (safety + carry) with local-currency EM debt (7%+ yield + dollar weakness currency gains), explicitly avoiding all AI and corporate credit exposure at both ends
“for a barbell for the other 15%...go way the other way to basically the riskiest thing which is local currency emerging market debt”
Jeffrey Gundlach: We've Crossed to the Hard Side of the Street
Shifting from cap-weighted to equal-weight revenue-ranked Fortune 500 eliminates the ~40% AI mega-cap concentration at a CAPE of 42 that historically guarantees negative real returns over the next decade, while maintaining broad US equity exposure
“you don't have 40% of your portfolio in AI. You have almost nothing. You're being as far away from that as you can”
Jeffrey Gundlach: We've Crossed to the Hard Side of the Street
Said again: 2026-09-30 (Jeffrey Gundlach)
Dollar debasement is now a named trade as fiscal deficits accelerate toward 50 trillion and the only endgame options are inflating the debt away or restructuring it, both of which are dollar-negative; the next recession will accelerate the debasement
“it's going to happen and it's going to happen at an accelerated rate in the next economic downturn”
Jeffrey Gundlach: We've Crossed to the Hard Side of the Street
Said again: 2026-09-30 (Jeffrey Gundlach)
2026-09-16
High Yield
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Floating-rate triple-C borrowers are already down 5-6% total return as rising rates squeeze the weakest credits, and a Fed rate hike adds more pressure on names that need a cutting cycle to survive — which is now zero-probability near term
“triple C bank loans...are not doing well...most of them are playing beat the clock”
Jeffrey Gundlach: We've Crossed to the Hard Side of the Street
2026-09-16
AI EPICENTER EQUITIES
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
AI-related credit is cracking with junk bonds 50bps and bank loans 130bps off tights while non-AI credit holds near highs, signaling the bond market rejects AI credit quality and a major drawdown in risk assets is imminent
“I want to be out of the epicenter...I just want out”
Jeffrey Gundlach: We've Crossed to the Hard Side of the Street
2026-09-16
DCMT
bullish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Commodity prices at new highs driven by oil above $100, depleted global strategic reserves, and CPI re-accelerating above 4%; rules-based monthly rebalancing limits single-commodity concentration
“that's up 38% year-to-date. So that's doing awfully well”
Jeffrey Gundlach: We've Crossed to the Hard Side of the Street
Said again: 2026-10-13 (Jeffrey Gundlach)
2026-09-16
DCRE
bullish
Julia La Roche Show · video
High-quality top-of-capital-structure commercial real estate with only 2-year duration yields ~6%, offering a substantial spread over T-bills while carrying minimal rate sensitivity — better dry-powder parking than cash
“it yields basically 6%. So it's a lot better than buying a T bill”
Jeffrey Gundlach: We've Crossed to the Hard Side of the Street
2026-09-16
TIPS
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Long-duration TIPS move in near-perfect lockstep with nominal 30-year Treasuries — both rose approximately 500bps — so they offer no protection against rising rates; only TIPS 5 years and under actually hedge inflation without absorbing duration losses
“30-year tips do not protect you from rising interest rates”
Jeffrey Gundlach: We've Crossed to the Hard Side of the Street
2026-09-10
long Em Equities / short SPX
pair
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
EM equities have already outperformed the S&P 500 by ~20% since end-2024, the trade-weighted dollar and S&P-vs-EM ratio move in near-lockstep, and with the dollar expected to fall further, the ratio should continue declining; US price-to-book at 5.72x versus…
“I further believe that this is going to drop going forward”
Gundlach Unlocked: The Fed’s Next Move
2026-09-10
long BANKS / short USTS
pair
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
EM local currency bond total returns and the inverse of the US dollar index track each other very closely, and with Gundlach expecting continued dollar weakness, EM local currency debt should meaningfully outperform US corporate bonds which offer no such…
“if the dollar goes down, which I expect to happen, we'd expect EM local currency emerging markets to outperform”
Gundlach Unlocked: The Fed’s Next Move
2026-09-10
long SPX / short SPX
pair
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Information technology has reached 38% of cap-weighted S&P 500 — the highest single-sector concentration in history — while the correlation between the AI complex and the rest of the market has turned negative, making equal-weight a safer and…
“I recommend none of that”
Gundlach Unlocked: The Fed’s Next Move
2026-09-10
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
The 30-year Treasury at 5.24% has failed to retrace meaningfully after a ~500bp rate rise, indicating the path of least resistance is higher yields, and a Fed hold next week would likely push long-term rates significantly higher given persistent PCE inflation…
“if it can't rally to correct a huge almost 500 basis point rate move, it probably means the next move is going to be a continuation of the upward trend”
Gundlach Unlocked: The Fed’s Next Move
Said again: 2026-09-17 (Jeffrey Gundlach), 2026-09-30 (Jeffrey Gundlach)
AI sector IG spreads have already widened from 50 to 125bps and HY from 180 to 325bps while the broader market sits near its tightest levels of the year, and an unrelenting supply avalanche from AI-related issuers will force further spread widening as the…
“the market is clearly starting to demand higher compensation”
Gundlach Unlocked: The Fed’s Next Move
Said again: 2026-09-16 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-09-17 (Jeffrey Gundlach), 2026-09-30 (Jeffrey Gundlach), 2026-10-09 (Jeffrey Gundlach)
2026-08-03
long USTS / short USTS
spread
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
The 2s30s Treasury curve is set to steepen further toward the 150bps long-term average as the Fed's failure to act on inflation forces the long end higher while near-term hike probability anchors the short end
“I believe 2's 30s will go to 150, which is the long-term average”
90d +0.0%
Jeffrey Gundlach on Channel 11: So Much Said, So Little Heard
2026-08-03
long SPX / short SPX
pair
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Equal-weighted S&P 500 will outperform market-cap-weighted as the AI/mega-cap mania unwinds and passive funds become a price-insensitive dumping ground for overvalued AI IPOs like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic that are being fast-tracked into indices
“I'm much more in favor of equal weighted benchmarks than I am of market cap weighted”
90d +0.0%
Jeffrey Gundlach on Channel 11: So Much Said, So Little Heard
The riskiest borrowers have migrated out of public high yield into private credit and bank loans, leaving the public junk bond market in comparatively better credit shape and making current tight spreads more defensible than historical comparisons suggest
“I'm more optimistic about the junk bond market, the public junk bond market... it's a way of getting yield and avoiding something that could really blow up”
90d -0.4%
Jeffrey Gundlach on Channel 11: So Much Said, So Little Heard
2026-08-03
Private Credit
bearish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Private credit funds are masking severe loan-level losses through stale marks — a 23-point fund markdown implies some portion of the portfolio must be near or at zero when spread across hundreds of loans, and insurance-company need-based investing has…
“If it's a quarter of the loans, that means the other 25% are worth eight... some have to be worth close to zero”
90d -3.8%
Jeffrey Gundlach on Channel 11: So Much Said, So Little Heard
Said again: 2026-09-30 (Jeffrey Gundlach), 2026-10-09 (Jeffrey Gundlach), 2026-10-28 (CNBC (uncut))
Gold has pulled back to ~$4,000 from a $5,500 peak and technicals show commodities respect chart levels well; current level is a decent entry and a further decline to $3,500 would trigger maximum bullish conviction
“I think gold has a shot of getting close to 3500. If it got to 3500, I'd turn maximum bullish on it”
90d -2.7%
Jeffrey Gundlach on Channel 11: So Much Said, So Little Heard
Said again: 2026-09-10 (Jeffrey Gundlach), 2026-09-16 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-10-13 (Jeffrey Gundlach)
2026-08-03
Commodities Broad
bullish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Commodities have been the top-performing asset class since both the June and December Fed meetings; the Bloomberg Commodity Index pulled back precisely to its 200-day moving average and has rocketed back toward prior highs, with persistent inflation and oil…
“Since December's Fed meeting, by far the number one of all these asset classes is the Bloomberg Commodity Index”
90d +12.4%
Jeffrey Gundlach on Channel 11: So Much Said, So Little Heard
Said again: 2026-09-30 (Jeffrey Gundlach)
2026-08-03
TIPS
bullish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Five-year TIPS break-evens are pricing roughly 2% inflation, which Gundlach believes materially underestimates the inflation path given commodity prices, Fed hesitancy, and ongoing deficit spending, making short-duration TIPS cheap on real yield terms
“I'm taking the over on that... tips make a lot of sense and they certainly make a lot of sense for low duration money”
Jeffrey Gundlach on Channel 11: So Much Said, So Little Heard
2026-08-03
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITIES
bullish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
EM equities trade at a deep price-to-book discount to the S&P 500 that has historically converged and would imply 100% outperformance if it does again; EM has already stopped underperforming, satisfying Gundlach's rule of waiting for cheapness to stop getting…
“I think emerging markets will ultimately end up with a price to book ratio that's equal to the S&P 500, which would mean 100% outperformance”
Jeffrey Gundlach on Channel 11: So Much Said, So Little Heard
US and allied strategic petroleum reserves have been drawn down by hundreds of millions of barrels during the ongoing war, creating a structural replenishment bid that establishes a firm floor around $60 and supports prices moving toward $90
“I think we're at 85 and a half, heading to 90... if oil got down to 60 I think there would be a big wave of buying to replenish these stockpiles”
90d +28.5%
Jeffrey Gundlach on Channel 11: So Much Said, So Little Heard
Said again: 2026-09-16 (Julia La Roche Show)
Massive home equity accumulation has made default risk in legacy RMBS near-zero while short-to-intermediate duration keeps the portfolio off the punishing long end of the curve, making these structured products safer than Treasuries on a risk-adjusted basis
“I think they're safer than treasuries. The home prices have gone up so much you have to be dumb as a stone to default”
Jeffrey Gundlach on Channel 11: So Much Said, So Little Heard
2026-07-29
long USTS / short USTS
spread
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Fed credibility loss during the press conference combined with mounting US fiscal deficits and Social Security funding pressures are pushing long-end yields toward mid-5%, while the 2-7 year belly offers yield without the same duration risk
“long rates could very well be moving up into the mid-fives by the next press conference”
90d +0.0%
Jeffrey Gundlach on the Fed: Talk Is Cheap | CNBC
2026-07-29
long Investment Grade Credit / short USTS
pair
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Rating agencies are being gamed across new-issue bonds that instantly trade at CCC levels despite IG ratings, and AI/hyperscaler CDS spreads have moved sharply wider, making a quality spread — long IG/BB over CCC — the correct defensive positioning
“I want to stay...triple-B and higher...stay out of the C category completely”
90d +0.3%
Jeffrey Gundlach on the Fed: Talk Is Cheap | CNBC
2026-07-29
long SPX / short SPX
pair
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Cap-weighted passive investing has become a valuation-insensitive dumping ground for AI IPOs — passive buyers are structurally forced to absorb whatever enters the index regardless of price — making equal-weighted S&P exposure superior on a risk-adjusted basis
“passive investing is a trap right now...do equal-weighted investing...not the cap-weighted basis”
90d +0.0%
Jeffrey Gundlach on the Fed: Talk Is Cheap | CNBC
2026-06-18
long US EQUAL-WEIGHT / NON-MOMENTUM EQUITIES / short US LARGE-CAP MOMENTUM / CAP-WEIGHTED INDEX
pair
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Within US equities, non-cap-weighted and non-momentum names are positioned to rotate into leadership as the AI capex funding burden weighs on the hyper-concentrated mega-cap momentum trade.
“I own things that are not momentum base or not cap weighted, but I think it's time for that to be more of a leader”
Jeffrey Gundlach on Kevin Warsh and a New Era at the Fed | CNBC
2026-06-18
Em Equities
bullish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Dollar stability (sideways rather than strengthening) has been sufficient to fuel EM outperformance, and structural catalysts in select countries extend the relative edge over US equities.
“I'm much more interested in non-US markets particularly in the emerging market names”
90d -7.2%
Jeffrey Gundlach on Kevin Warsh and a New Era at the Fed | CNBC
Said again: 2026-09-16 (Julia La Roche Show)
2026-06-18
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Warsh's credible commitment to price stability removes the over-easing pressure that was driving long-term yields higher, providing better support for the long bond than the cutting cycle did.
“the long bond is better supported for the time being as he tries to work towards that lower inflation rate”
90d -5.7%
Jeffrey Gundlach on Kevin Warsh and a New Era at the Fed | CNBC
US equities trade at P/B of 5.7x vs 2.39x for ex-US, a gap wide enough to nearly match historical parity; extreme valuation concentration is already reversing as AI Big 10 leadership deteriorates
“I would bet very heavily that that is going to continue in the years ahead”
90d -2.4%
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Higher Rates and Persistent Inflation
Said again: 2026-06-18 (Jeffrey Gundlach)
Structural forces including US fiscal deterioration and extreme US equity overvaluation relative to the world are weakening the dollar; the falling dollar is the mechanical driver behind EM outperformance he is recommending
“the dollar is falling and I believe will continue to fall on a trade weighted basis”
90d -0.3%
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Higher Rates and Persistent Inflation
Said again: 2026-07-29 (Jeffrey Gundlach), 2026-09-10 (Jeffrey Gundlach)
2026-06-12
AI BIG 10 / US MEGA-CAP TECH CONCENTRATION
bearish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
10 AI stocks represent 41% of S&P 500 market cap — matching dot-com tech/telecom concentration — and the concentration metric is already rolling over; concurrent SpaceX/$1.8T IPO wave signals insiders selling at the top of a hype cycle
“this is a very bad time period to be doubling down on this concentrated type of portfolio”
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Higher Rates and Persistent Inflation
Falling trade-weighted US dollar historically drives EM equity outperformance vs S&P 500; dollar weakness is expected to persist, and EM is already at relative highs vs the S&P on a rolling 18-month basis
“Since the dollar is falling and I believe will continue to fall, we would expect emerging markets outperforming the S&P 500”
90d -8.3%
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Higher Rates and Persistent Inflation
2026-06-12
GBI
bullish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
EM local currency bonds have outperformed US corporate bonds for four years driven by dollar weakness; with the dollar continuing to fall the relative return advantage persists
“emerging markets have now been outperforming corporate US corporate total return debt for now the better part of four years”
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Higher Rates and Persistent Inflation
2026-06-12
SOX
bearish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
April 2026 was the largest monthly gain ever for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, directly paralleling February 2000 — which was the literal top of the NASDAQ bubble — suggesting semis are a warning sign of a broader market peak
“month of April biggest month ever, very similar to February 2000 which was literally the top in the stock market”
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Higher Rates and Persistent Inflation
2026-06-12
Data Center Reits
bearish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Data center construction has surged parabolically since ChatGPT (2022) and crossed above office construction, signaling overbuilding; the coming surplus will trigger a bust in the AI hype cycle that has been driving equities
“there is going to be a surplus an overconstruction in these data centers and that is going to lead to a bust in the hype cycle”
90d +2.6%
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Higher Rates and Persistent Inflation
2026-05-14
FED FUNDS RATE / SHORT US DURATION
bearish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 exceed odds of a cut, invalidating rate-cut-dependent bull theses for risk assets and adding refinancing stress to private credit portfolios
“I'd bet more on a hike than a cut”
Jeffrey Gundlach at Milken: Financial Alchemy and the Erosion of Trust
Keeping ~20% in cash preserves optionality to redeploy at lower equity valuations and higher fixed-income yields as rising long rates compress risk-asset multiples
“you can deploy it at lower valuations on risk assets and higher yields on fixed income”
Jeffrey Gundlach on Private Credit's Wild West and a U.S. Debt Tail Risk | Bloomberg TV
2026-05-07
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
Long rates will continue rising even in a recession because fiscal concerns over surging interest expense will overwhelm Fed easing, as evidenced by 100bp rise since September 2024 cuts began
“since the Fed started cutting in September 2024, the long rates are up 100 basis points”
90d +2.0%
Gundlach Warns About the Risks Facing Private Credit
Said again: 2026-06-12 (Jeffrey Gundlach)
Private credit stress has not yet spilled into public high yield as theorized by private credit bulls, with spreads back near lows, but contagion remains a future risk if redemption pressure intensifies
“The high yield market isn't in trouble. The spreads have tightened right back down”
Gundlach Warns About the Risks Facing Private Credit
Said again: 2026-05-14 (Jeffrey Gundlach), 2026-06-18 (Jeffrey Gundlach)
After a near-vertical rise from ~3,500 to ~5,500, gold is technically exhausted and likely to retrace below 4,000 before resuming its longer-term uptrend, offering a better entry point later.
“I wouldn't be surprised if gold went down below 4,000 before resuming its rise higher”
90d +11.5% · 180d +11.9%
Jeffrey Gundlach: Beware the Ides of June | CNBC
2026-03-31
long Em Equities / short USD
pair
video
Emerging market equities in local currencies offer the double benefit of cheap valuations (S&P 500 P/B is more than double rest-of-world ex-US) AND dollar weakening as the US exceptionalism trade reverses over a multi-year cycle
“My number one recommendation is American investors should buy emerging market equities in the local currencies”
90d +8.6% · 180d +7.8%
2026-03-31
long Long Dur Treasuries / short Long Dur Treasuries
pair
video
Within any Treasury portfolio, swapping high-coupon bonds for the lowest-coupon bonds in each maturity bucket eliminates default-cost-free exposure to a soft-default/coupon-restructuring scenario while maintaining duration profile
“I want you to swap the ones that we own for the lowest coupon in that maturity bucket — we lowered our coupon on 10-year and longer Treasuries from 4 and 3/4% to 1 and 1/2%”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0%
Absurd spending, tax policies accelerating revenue erosion, and wealthy taxpayer flight create fundamental fiscal deterioration; legislative risk includes potential coupon cuts or taxability changes on higher incomes
“avoid all general obligation munis in California, Illinois, and New York”
90d -2.3% · 180d +3.7%
2026-03-27
High Yield
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Triple-C bank loan spreads are already near 2,000 bps on an index level, signaling the market does not expect repayment and that defaults in the lower-rated segment of leveraged credit are imminent
“spread on triple-C bank loans are almost 2,000 basis points. That means nobody thinks they're going to get paid”
90d -3.0% · 180d -2.2%
Jeffrey Gundlach: Private Credit Is A Total, Unmitigated Disaster, And It’s Going To Get Worse
Risk assets across equities and credit are likely to reprice lower in 2026 creating better entry points, making cash the prudent holding to preserve capital and deploy opportunistically
“Investors should have the balance of their portfolio in cash because things are going to get cheaper along the line of 2026”
90d +0.8% · 180d +1.7%
Jeffrey Gundlach: Private Credit Is A Total, Unmitigated Disaster, And It’s Going To Get Worse
Said again: 2026-05-07 (Jeffrey Gundlach)
Showing the 60 most recent of 186 tracked stances.
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