Investors / stance tracking
What Jesse Felder is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowAuthor, The Felder Report
39 dated public stances tracked since 2024-12-12, most recently 2026-10-19. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Jesse Felder's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Jesse Felder is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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39
tracked stances
22
themes
1
side flips
2026-10-19
last heard
Returns 90d +3.7% 72% correct · 18 calls · 180d +5.2% 57% correct · 14 calls · 1y +7.1% 50% correct · 14 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | USTS | bullish | -0.8% | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +0.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 | GOLD | owns | -3.3% | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 | ENERGY | bullish | +15.6% | — | — |
| 2025-04-23 | long GOLD / short USTS | pair | +1.2% | +13.7% | +18.5% |
| 2025-04-23 | USD | bearish | +1.2% | -1.4% | -3.8% |
| 2025-04-23 | SPX | bearish | -17.8% | -26.1% | -33.8% |
| 2025-04-23 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -0.2% | -7.2% | -3.6% |
| 2025-04-23 | GOLD | bullish | +4.1% | +32.8% | +42.0% |
| 2025-04-23 | ENERGY | bullish | +6.1% | +8.8% | +44.8% |
| 2024-12-14 | long GOLD / short SPX | pair | +9.7% | +13.7% | +24.0% |
| 2024-12-12 | short SPX / long Commodities Broad | pair | +5.3% | +0.7% | -3.1% |
| 2024-12-12 | USD | bearish | +2.2% | +5.3% | +3.4% |
| 2024-12-12 | SPX | bearish | +7.2% | -0.4% | -14.2% |
| 2024-12-12 | NVDA | bearish | +15.7% | -4.8% | -27.5% |
| 2024-12-12 | GOLD | bullish | +9.3% | +24.0% | +59.9% |
| 2024-12-12 | ENERGY | bullish | -1.3% | -3.6% | +4.9% |
| 2024-12-12 | AAPL | bearish | +12.4% | +18.1% | -12.7% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-08-04 | |
| GOLD | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-08-04 | |
| SPX | 3 | 3 bearish | 2026-10-15 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-08-04 | |
| USD | 2 | 2 bearish | 2025-04-23 | |
| USTS | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-15 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-19
KOSPI
bearish
Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) · video
The Korean market peaked in Q2 as a leading indicator that the global AI-driven capital cycle has topped, consistent with the historical pattern of equities peaking well ahead of capex
“the Korean market peaked in the second quarter”
Semiconductors, Korea, & Wall Street: Early Signs Of An AI Bubble Peak
2026-10-15
long HEALTHCARE / short AI / MEGA-CAP GROWTH STOCKS
pair
Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) · video
Growth-over-value anomaly identical to 1998–2000 is set to reverse as rising rates favor value; defensive sectors (consumer staples, healthcare, utilities) are left-for-dead cheapest in years while growth trades at peak valuations
Is The Market Hitting Its Breaking Point? | Jesse Felder
Record-weak market breadth (less than 30% of S&P components above 50-day MA at a new 52-week high — unprecedented even vs dot-com), closing IPO capital window, rising CDS spreads on tech credit, and semiconductor peak in June all signal that AI leadership can…
“less than 30% of the components above the 50-day moving average — that's never happened before”
Is The Market Hitting Its Breaking Point? | Jesse Felder
10-year yields broke out of a multi-year consolidation and the gold-price leading indicator (which forecast this move) still implies substantial upside, leaving a technical target near 6%
“that breakout, just from a pure technical standpoint, leaves a target close to 6%”
Is The Market Hitting Its Breaking Point? | Jesse Felder
Nike is a world-class brand trading at historically cheap valuations and below its 200-week moving average, deeply out of favor in a growth-dominated market — analogous to Abercrombie & Fitch in 2000 which rose 200% in the subsequent value rotation
“Nike traded below that kind of a level for most of this year — but that doesn't mean it's still not a great long-term opportunity”
Is The Market Hitting Its Breaking Point? | Jesse Felder
4% yield on cash provides optionality to deploy into distressed real assets or beaten-down value stocks over the next 12–18 months as markets reprice, making liquidity itself a strategic position
“I can get 4% on my cash and then have the liquidity to take advantage of things as they arise”
Is The Market Hitting Its Breaking Point? | Jesse Felder
Massive capital flowing into AI is creating an oversupply of memory chips while companies simultaneously engineer models and hardware that require less memory, a classic capital-cycle supply glut setup
“an ungodly amount of supply coming to the market of new memory at the same time as all of these companies are doing their level best to reduce their dependence on memory”
Is The Market Hitting Its Breaking Point? | Jesse Felder
2026-10-15
AI / MEGA-CAP GROWTH STOCKS
bearish
Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) · video
The capital window for AI funding is visibly closing — IPOs being pulled, CDS spreads on tech credits blowing out — and the market historically peaks 9–18 months before CapEx does, with semiconductors and Korean equities already having peaked in Q2
“it's very clear that the capital window to me is closing”
Is The Market Hitting Its Breaking Point? | Jesse Felder
Lululemon is a great brand trading at historically cheap valuations, deeply out of favor in the current growth-dominated market, setting up for gains in a value rotation similar to specialty retail in 2000–2002
“stocks like Lululemon and Nike — great brands that are so deeply out of favor”
Is The Market Hitting Its Breaking Point? | Jesse Felder
2026-10-02
long VALUE STOCKS / short GROWTH / TECH STOCKS
pair
Wealthion · video
Rising interest rates increase the discount rate on long-duration earnings, systematically hurting growth stocks more than value stocks—the same rotation that occurred after the 2000 dotcom peak, where old-economy value names did phenomenally well as growth…
“value stocks are going to take over... exactly what happened in 2000”
Higher Rates Could Burst the AI Bubble — Here’s What to Own Instead
In real inflation-adjusted terms, oil at $100 is still near its 40-year average, meaning a genuine supply-shock spike to $120–$150 remains on the table because the capital-cycle supply response that would end the supercycle has not materialized
“at $100 a barrel, oil, you could argue, is still undervalued”
Higher Rates Could Burst the AI Bubble — Here’s What to Own Instead
2026-10-02
Commodities Broad
bullish
Wealthion · video
Fifteen years of near-zero capital investment in new oil, gas, and copper supply has created structural tightness that won't resolve until companies commit to massive new drilling and mining programs—a supply response that has not yet begun
“I'm a huge commodities bull... we're in the midst of a major commodity super cycle”
Higher Rates Could Burst the AI Bubble — Here’s What to Own Instead
Copper supplies are structurally tight due to 15 years of minimal capital investment in new mines, and until companies begin committing capital to new projects—which hasn't happened—the supercycle supply squeeze remains intact
“supplies are tight for everything, for copper”
Higher Rates Could Burst the AI Bubble — Here’s What to Own Instead
Every global memory supplier and China's state-backed chipmakers are investing billions in new capacity simultaneously, while model efficiency gains rapidly reduce per-inference compute demand—mirroring the dark-fiber glut after the dotcom boom, pointing to a…
“I'm much more worried about end-of-cycle kind of dynamics there”
Higher Rates Could Burst the AI Bubble — Here’s What to Own Instead
Said again: 2026-10-19 (Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart))
2026-10-02
Ai Infra
bearish
Wealthion · video
Rising interest rates historically burst speculative bubbles, and AI infrastructure is showing classic end-of-cycle dynamics—credit markets tightening for AI loans, data center buildout already failing to meet semiconductor earnings estimates, and open-source…
“There's really nothing like rising interest rates to burst a speculative bubble”
Higher Rates Could Burst the AI Bubble — Here’s What to Own Instead
Defensive sectors are showing early signs of leadership rotation as the rate hike cycle adds further pressure to already-stressed consumers, with consumer discretionary already the worst-performing S&P sector this year signaling consumer weakness
“consumer staples, healthcare, these types have actually started to show some life”
Higher Rates Could Burst the AI Bubble — Here’s What to Own Instead
2026-08-04
long SOFTWARE EQUITIES / short SEMICONDUCTOR EQUITIES
pair
Wealthion · video
The long-AI-hardware / short-software momentum pairs trade is climactically unwinding — semiconductor and memory stocks have rolled over hard while software names were destroyed as the short leg, creating value in software relative to semis as the momentum…
Could Treasury Yields Break the AI Boom?
Oil is at historically cheap levels relative to gold and the broader commodity complex, energy has quietly outperformed tech over five years yet remains deeply unloved, and structurally higher inflation from deglobalization and demographic shifts supports oil…
“oil has never been as cheap relative to the gold price or the silver price as it is today”
90d +15.6%
Could Treasury Yields Break the AI Boom?
Said again: 2026-10-02 (Wealthion), 2026-10-15 (Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart))
2026-08-04
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
Taylor rule shows Fed is 300bps behind the curve with nominal GDP growing 7%+ and a $2T annual supply glut crowding a bond market already losing faith in the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility, driving yields to break out to new highs
“I do believe we're watching kind of a slow-motion debt crisis unfold”
90d +0.1%
Could Treasury Yields Break the AI Boom?
Said again: 2026-10-02 (Wealthion)
Gold has retraced from its overextended early-year high back to fair value implied by real interest rates and is now pricing in a hawkish Fed cycle; once the Fed's next dovish pivot is in view gold will resume its bull-market advance, following the classic…
“I was overweight gold since 2016-ish... I put some back on”
90d -3.3%
Could Treasury Yields Break the AI Boom?
Said again: 2026-10-15 (Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart))
2026-08-04
AI HARDWARE / HYPERSCALERS
bearish
Wealthion · video
The marginal leveraged buyer (Korean retail, crypto-adjacent hedge funds) is permanently impaired; hyperscaler free cash flow is negative with record-low earnings quality; circular financing depends on Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs that are increasingly in doubt…
“I do think that was the final blowoff of this AI bubble”
Could Treasury Yields Break the AI Boom?
Meaningfully tightening financial conditions — the only path to killing inflation — requires stocks and long bonds to fall, so short-duration paper earns yield while avoiding both duration risk and equity drawdown during the forced tightening ahead
“Warren Buffett has 400 billion in short-term Treasuries right now”
90d -0.8%
Could Treasury Yields Break the AI Boom?
2025-04-23
long GOLD / short USTS
pair
Wealthion · video
A secular dollar bear market historically causes real assets (precious metals, oil, commodities) to massively outperform financial assets (equities, bonds), and the current setup — overvalued stocks, fiscal-deficit-threatened bonds, falling dollar —…
“you typically want to favor real assets over financial ones”
90d +1.2% · 180d +13.7% · 1y +18.5%
Jesse Felder: Stocks, Bonds & the U.S. Dollar Are All Breaking
Oil at $60 is pricing a recession and trades at its cheapest level vs. gold in 30 years; managed-money net longs are near COVID-era lows; shale depletion is faster than consensus expects; and massive fiscal stimulus from China, Europe, and Japan will revive…
“I'm very bullish on energy stocks and the oil price over the next few years”
90d +6.1% · 180d +8.8% · 1y +44.8%
Jesse Felder: Stocks, Bonds & the U.S. Dollar Are All Breaking
2025-04-23
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
A 7%-of-GDP fiscal deficit will blow out further in recession, flooding the market with supply at the same time foreign demand is collapsing; bond vigilantes are already signaling discomfort, and 10-year yields could reach 5–5.5% before the Fed is forced to…
“I don't have any interest in owning longer-term bonds”
90d -0.2% · 180d -7.2% · 1y -3.6%
Jesse Felder: Stocks, Bonds & the U.S. Dollar Are All Breaking
Gold is signaling a fundamental regime change and a multi-year dollar bear market; the long-term target is $5,000–$10,000/oz, though near-term it is extended relative to real rates with record ETF inflows, so new buyers should wait for a corrective phase.
“you probably expect it to go 5 to 10,000 an ounce before this bull market is over”
90d +4.1% · 180d +32.8% · 1y +42.0%
Jesse Felder: Stocks, Bonds & the U.S. Dollar Are All Breaking
At ~25x trailing earnings vs. the historical 15x average, forward earnings estimates haven't priced in a likely recession, insider selling is at a decade high, and retail leverage-ETF flows are at records — making further multiple contraction to 4,000–3,000…
“I think you clearly have to sell it”
90d -17.8% · 180d -26.1% · 1y -33.8%
Jesse Felder: Stocks, Bonds & the U.S. Dollar Are All Breaking
The Trump administration explicitly wants a weaker dollar to rebalance trade, the dollar is overvalued especially vs. the yen, and the simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and dollar signals the world is exiting dollar-based assets — echoing the…
“I do believe we've entered a new dollar bear market”
90d +1.2% · 180d -1.4% · 1y -3.8%
Jesse Felder: Stocks, Bonds & the U.S. Dollar Are All Breaking
2024-12-30
long INTERNATIONAL / FOREIGN EQUITIES / short SPX
pair
Wealthion · video
A potential dollar peak analogous to 2002 should flip the near-perfect correlation between dollar strength and US stock relative performance, causing international equities to outperform US equities as foreign capital flows reverse
“US Stocks outperform foreign counterparts when the dollar goes up”
Wealthion’s Best Of 2024: Jesse Felder
2024-12-30
long GOLD / short US FINANCIAL ASSETS / EQUITIES
pair
Wealthion · video
If the dollar is peaking as it did in 2002, real assets should outperform financial assets over the next cycle, mirroring the 2002–2012 period when the same dynamic played out after a dollar top
“real assets probably outperform Financial ones generally just like they did from that 2002 to 2012 time frame”
Wealthion’s Best Of 2024: Jesse Felder
2024-12-14
long GOLD / short SPX
pair
Wealthion · video
A potential peak in the US dollar — analogous to the 2002 peak — would reverse the near-perfect correlation between dollar strength and US equity outperformance, rotating capital from financial assets into real assets just as it did in the 2002–2012 period.
“real assets probably outperform financial ones generally just like they did from that 2002 to 2012 time frame”
90d +9.7% · 180d +13.7% · 1y +24.0%
Market Recap: Bitcoin | Market Bubble | Market Fragility | Commodities
2024-12-12
short SPX / long Commodities Broad
pair
Wealthion · video
A peaking dollar historically rotates outperformance from US financial assets to real assets and commodities, mirroring the 2002–2012 cycle where dollar weakness coincided with energy and gold outperforming equities
“in a dollar bull market you want to own stocks and bonds; in a dollar bear market overweight commodities and real assets”
90d +5.3% · 180d +0.7% · 1y -3.1%
Jesse Felder: Warren Buffett & CEOs Are Cashing Out—Markets at Risk!
Oil is undervalued relative to gold on a ratio basis that historically signals a reversion, insider buying by billionaires is concentrated almost exclusively in energy (Slim, Jones, Buffett), the S&P allocates only ~2.5% to energy while demand is structurally…
“energy stocks are still outperforming the broad market over the last four years”
90d -1.3% · 180d -3.6% · 1y +4.9%
Jesse Felder: Warren Buffett & CEOs Are Cashing Out—Markets at Risk!
Gold is already outperforming the S&P 500 in 2024 and is the primary beneficiary of a weakening dollar cycle, as real assets historically dominate financial assets during dollar bear markets
“gold is outperforming the S&P 500 this year”
90d +9.3% · 180d +24.0% · 1y +59.9%
Jesse Felder: Warren Buffett & CEOs Are Cashing Out—Markets at Risk!
Apple trades at a record 40x earnings during its slowest revenue and earnings growth period, a valuation supported purely by price-insensitive passive flows rather than fundamentals; net cash as a percent of market cap has collapsed from ~15% to near zero…
“who's willing to pay a record valuation for a company that's seeing its slowest growth”
90d +12.4% · 180d +18.1% · 1y -12.7%
Jesse Felder: Warren Buffett & CEOs Are Cashing Out—Markets at Risk!
Said again: 2024-12-14 (Wealthion), 2024-12-30 (Wealthion)
AI revenue is partially illusory vendor-financing circularity (Microsoft/Nvidia investing in startups that immediately pay them back in cloud credits or chip purchases), capex spending growth is decelerating from 100% YoY to potentially single digits or…
“the revenue generated hasn't even come close to the spending”
90d +15.7% · 180d -4.8% · 1y -27.5%
Jesse Felder: Warren Buffett & CEOs Are Cashing Out—Markets at Risk!
The insider sell-to-buy ratio exceeds 25 — a level last seen in late 2021 just before the 2022 earnings recession — while leveraged long ETF assets are 11x leveraged short ETF assets (vs 5x at the 2021 peak) and small speculators are 10x as net-long S&P…
“Insider buying has evaporated and the sell-to-buy ratio is extremely elevated”
90d +7.2% · 180d -0.4% · 1y -14.2%
Jesse Felder: Warren Buffett & CEOs Are Cashing Out—Markets at Risk!
Said again: 2024-12-14 (Wealthion), 2024-12-30 (Wealthion)
The dollar is at peak overvaluation on purchasing power parity and real effective exchange rate measures, and widening US fiscal deficits historically drive multi-year dollar bear markets, as seen in the 2002–2011 cycle
“the dollar is about as overvalued as it ever gets”
90d +2.2% · 180d +5.3% · 1y +3.4%
Jesse Felder: Warren Buffett & CEOs Are Cashing Out—Markets at Risk!
US data center buildout is driving unprecedented domestic energy demand that can only be met quickly via natural gas, while a roughly $5/BTU LNG export spread to Europe creates a powerful demand tailwind, and fracking well depletion rates make supply tighter…
“demand for natural gas is only going higher”
Jesse Felder: Warren Buffett & CEOs Are Cashing Out—Markets at Risk!
Idea Scout Weekly
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