Investors / stance tracking
What Jesse Felder is saying
Author, The Felder Report
20 dated public stances tracked since 2024-12-12, most recently 2026-08-04. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Jesse Felder's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Jesse Felder is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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20
tracked stances
8
themes
0
side flips
2026-08-04
last heard
Returns 90d +1.6% (n=20) · 180d +1.8% (n=20) · 1y -2.8% (n=20)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-08-04 | |
| SPX | 3 | 3 bearish | 2025-04-23 | |
| GOLD | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-08-04 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-08-04 | |
| AAPL | 1 | 1 bearish | 2024-12-12 | |
| AI HARDWARE / HYPERSCALERS | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-08-04 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-08-04
ENERGY
bullish
Wealthion · video
Oil is at historically cheap levels relative to gold and the broader commodity complex, energy has quietly outperformed tech over five years yet remains deeply unloved, and structurally higher inflation from deglobalization and demographic shifts supports oil…
“oil has never been as cheap relative to the gold price or the silver price as it is today”
Could Treasury Yields Break the AI Boom?
2026-08-04
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
Taylor rule shows Fed is 300bps behind the curve with nominal GDP growing 7%+ and a $2T annual supply glut crowding a bond market already losing faith in the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility, driving yields to break out to new highs
“I do believe we're watching kind of a slow-motion debt crisis unfold”
Could Treasury Yields Break the AI Boom?
2026-08-04
GOLD
owns
Wealthion · video
Gold has retraced from its overextended early-year high back to fair value implied by real interest rates and is now pricing in a hawkish Fed cycle; once the Fed's next dovish pivot is in view gold will resume its bull-market advance, following the classic…
“I was overweight gold since 2016-ish... I put some back on”
Could Treasury Yields Break the AI Boom?
2026-08-04
AI HARDWARE / HYPERSCALERS
bearish
Wealthion · video
The marginal leveraged buyer (Korean retail, crypto-adjacent hedge funds) is permanently impaired; hyperscaler free cash flow is negative with record-low earnings quality; circular financing depends on Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs that are increasingly in doubt…
“I do think that was the final blowoff of this AI bubble”
Could Treasury Yields Break the AI Boom?
2026-08-04
USTS
bullish
Wealthion · video
Meaningfully tightening financial conditions — the only path to killing inflation — requires stocks and long bonds to fall, so short-duration paper earns yield while avoiding both duration risk and equity drawdown during the forced tightening ahead
“Warren Buffett has 400 billion in short-term Treasuries right now”
Could Treasury Yields Break the AI Boom?
2026-08-04
long SOFTWARE EQUITIES / short SEMICONDUCTOR EQUITIES
pair
Wealthion · video
The long-AI-hardware / short-software momentum pairs trade is climactically unwinding — semiconductor and memory stocks have rolled over hard while software names were destroyed as the short leg, creating value in software relative to semis as the momentum…
Could Treasury Yields Break the AI Boom?
2025-04-23
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
A 7%-of-GDP fiscal deficit will blow out further in recession, flooding the market with supply at the same time foreign demand is collapsing; bond vigilantes are already signaling discomfort, and 10-year yields could reach 5–5.5% before the Fed is forced to…
“I don't have any interest in owning longer-term bonds”
90d -0.2% · 180d -7.2% · 1y -3.6%
Jesse Felder: Stocks, Bonds & the U.S. Dollar Are All Breaking
2025-04-23
SPX
bearish
Wealthion · video
At ~25x trailing earnings vs. the historical 15x average, forward earnings estimates haven't priced in a likely recession, insider selling is at a decade high, and retail leverage-ETF flows are at records — making further multiple contraction to 4,000–3,000…
“I think you clearly have to sell it”
90d -17.8% · 180d -26.1% · 1y -33.8%
Jesse Felder: Stocks, Bonds & the U.S. Dollar Are All Breaking
2025-04-23
GOLD
bullish
Wealthion · video
Gold is signaling a fundamental regime change and a multi-year dollar bear market; the long-term target is $5,000–$10,000/oz, though near-term it is extended relative to real rates with record ETF inflows, so new buyers should wait for a corrective phase.
“you probably expect it to go 5 to 10,000 an ounce before this bull market is over”
90d +4.1% · 180d +32.8% · 1y +42.0%
Jesse Felder: Stocks, Bonds & the U.S. Dollar Are All Breaking
2025-04-23
ENERGY
bullish
Wealthion · video
Oil at $60 is pricing a recession and trades at its cheapest level vs. gold in 30 years; managed-money net longs are near COVID-era lows; shale depletion is faster than consensus expects; and massive fiscal stimulus from China, Europe, and Japan will revive…
“I'm very bullish on energy stocks and the oil price over the next few years”
90d +6.1% · 180d +8.8% · 1y +44.8%
Jesse Felder: Stocks, Bonds & the U.S. Dollar Are All Breaking
2025-04-23
long GOLD / short USTS
pair
Wealthion · video
A secular dollar bear market historically causes real assets (precious metals, oil, commodities) to massively outperform financial assets (equities, bonds), and the current setup — overvalued stocks, fiscal-deficit-threatened bonds, falling dollar —…
“you typically want to favor real assets over financial ones”
90d +1.2% · 180d +13.7% · 1y +18.5%
Jesse Felder: Stocks, Bonds & the U.S. Dollar Are All Breaking
2024-12-30
SPX
bearish
Wealthion · video
The momentum factor is at 1999/2021-level extremes—historically a strong predictor of 12-month S&P 500 reversals—compounded by leveraged long ETFs now at 11x the size of short ETFs (vs 5x at the 2021 peak) and small S&P futures speculators 10x as net-long as…
“it's literally twice as extreme the amount of leverage in leveraged ETFs today that we saw back in 2021”
90d +4.6% · 180d -5.7% · 1y -18.2%
Wealthion’s Best Of 2024: Jesse Felder
2024-12-30
long INTERNATIONAL / FOREIGN EQUITIES / short SPX
pair
Wealthion · video
A potential dollar peak analogous to 2002 should flip the near-perfect correlation between dollar strength and US stock relative performance, causing international equities to outperform US equities as foreign capital flows reverse
“US Stocks outperform foreign counterparts when the dollar goes up”
Wealthion’s Best Of 2024: Jesse Felder
2024-12-30
long GOLD / short US FINANCIAL ASSETS / EQUITIES
pair
Wealthion · video
If the dollar is peaking as it did in 2002, real assets should outperform financial assets over the next cycle, mirroring the 2002–2012 period when the same dynamic played out after a dollar top
“real assets probably outperform Financial ones generally just like they did from that 2002 to 2012 time frame”
Wealthion’s Best Of 2024: Jesse Felder
2024-12-14
long GOLD / short SPX
pair
Wealthion · video
A potential peak in the US dollar — analogous to the 2002 peak — would reverse the near-perfect correlation between dollar strength and US equity outperformance, rotating capital from financial assets into real assets just as it did in the 2002–2012 period.
“real assets probably outperform financial ones generally just like they did from that 2002 to 2012 time frame”
90d +9.7% · 180d +13.7% · 1y +24.0%
Market Recap: Bitcoin | Market Bubble | Market Fragility | Commodities
2024-12-12
ENERGY
bullish
Wealthion · video
Oil is undervalued relative to gold on a ratio basis that historically signals a reversion, insider buying by billionaires is concentrated almost exclusively in energy (Slim, Jones, Buffett), the S&P allocates only ~2.5% to energy while demand is structurally…
“energy stocks are still outperforming the broad market over the last four years”
90d -1.3% · 180d -3.6% · 1y +4.9%
Jesse Felder: Warren Buffett & CEOs Are Cashing Out—Markets at Risk!
2024-12-12
AAPL
bearish
Wealthion · video
Apple trades at a record 40x earnings during its slowest revenue and earnings growth period, a valuation supported purely by price-insensitive passive flows rather than fundamentals; net cash as a percent of market cap has collapsed from ~15% to near zero…
“who's willing to pay a record valuation for a company that's seeing its slowest growth”
90d +12.4% · 180d +18.1% · 1y -12.7%
Jesse Felder: Warren Buffett & CEOs Are Cashing Out—Markets at Risk!
2024-12-12
NVDA
bearish
Wealthion · video
AI revenue is partially illusory vendor-financing circularity (Microsoft/Nvidia investing in startups that immediately pay them back in cloud credits or chip purchases), capex spending growth is decelerating from 100% YoY to potentially single digits or…
“the revenue generated hasn't even come close to the spending”
90d +15.7% · 180d -4.8% · 1y -27.5%
Jesse Felder: Warren Buffett & CEOs Are Cashing Out—Markets at Risk!
2024-12-12
SPX
bearish
Wealthion · video
The insider sell-to-buy ratio exceeds 25 — a level last seen in late 2021 just before the 2022 earnings recession — while leveraged long ETF assets are 11x leveraged short ETF assets (vs 5x at the 2021 peak) and small speculators are 10x as net-long S&P…
“Insider buying has evaporated and the sell-to-buy ratio is extremely elevated”
90d +7.2% · 180d -0.4% · 1y -14.2%
Jesse Felder: Warren Buffett & CEOs Are Cashing Out—Markets at Risk!
2024-12-12
short SPX / long Commodities Broad
pair
Wealthion · video
A peaking dollar historically rotates outperformance from US financial assets to real assets and commodities, mirroring the 2002–2012 cycle where dollar weakness coincided with energy and gold outperforming equities
“in a dollar bull market you want to own stocks and bonds; in a dollar bear market overweight commodities and real assets”
90d +5.3% · 180d +0.7% · 1y -3.1%
Jesse Felder: Warren Buffett & CEOs Are Cashing Out—Markets at Risk!
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