Investors / stance tracking
What Jessica Rabe is saying
Co-Founder, DataTrek Research
15 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-19, most recently 2026-07-13. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Jessica Rabe's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Jessica Rabe is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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15
tracked stances
5
themes
1
side flips
2026-07-13
last heard
Returns 90d +0.3% (n=12) · 180d +1.5% (n=10) · 1y +8.7% (n=9)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
XLK — bullish2026-06-08 → bearish2026-07-13
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Tech | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-07-13 | |
| SPX | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-06-08 | |
| XLK | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-07-13 | |
| META | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-02-03 | |
| XLV | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-02-03 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-07-13
Big Tech
bullish
The Compound · video
Since 1972, the Nasdaq has never stopped rallying at exactly four straight years; after three consecutive 20%+ years following a down year (the current setup), year-four gains occurred 67% of the time and multi-year extensions are more common than two-year…
“history says the Nasdaq should keep rallying beyond this year barring a Fed rate shock”
We Answer the Number One Question Facing Investors Right Now | WDWL
2026-07-13
XLK
bearish
The Compound · video
Tech's 50-day outperformance hit a 6+ standard deviation extreme on June 2nd, and all 41 historical instances of a comparable 100-day extreme preceded tech underperformance over the following 100 days by an average of 10.8 points
“believing in further strong near-term gains we think is betting against 27 years of history”
We Answer the Number One Question Facing Investors Right Now | WDWL
2026-07-13
long MSFT / short S
other
The Compound · video
Semis saw 5–7x more upward EPS revisions than Mag 8 over the past 90 days and are up 168% YTD trading at 52.5x forward earnings vs 25.9x for Mag 8, so capital staying in tech mechanically rotates to the lower-multiple Mag 8 names with still-solid earnings…
“the more likely that the money that needs to stay in tech starts spreading into other names with lower valuations”
We Answer the Number One Question Facing Investors Right Now | WDWL
2026-06-08
SPX
bullish
The Compound · video
The S&P's current 2-standard-deviation 50-day return has historically been followed by positive 50-day forward returns in all 5 prior instances since 2015, averaging 7.3% with the weakest outcome still +2.6%
“history says the S&P itself still has room to run from here”
90d +3.9%
A 6 Standard Deviation Tech Event Just Happened. Now What? | WDWL?
2026-06-08
XLK
bullish
The Compound · video
For long-term AI believers, index-weight exposure to the full tech sector maintains theme participation while reducing concentration risk that a semi-specific reversion would disproportionately punish
“you maintain exposure to the theme while reducing the concentration risk that a semi reversion would disproportionately punish”
A 6 Standard Deviation Tech Event Just Happened. Now What? | WDWL?
2026-06-08
short SMH / long IGV
other
The Compound · video
Semis have outperformed software by 4 standard deviations (44 points over 50 days), the most extreme reading in a decade; historically such concentrated leadership ends in rotation, not continued acceleration
“for tactical investors, that argues for reducing semi exposure and looking more closely at software here”
90d +5.7%
A 6 Standard Deviation Tech Event Just Happened. Now What? | WDWL?
2025-10-20
SPX
bullish
The Compound · video
Seasonality strongly favors a Q4 melt-up since the S&P peaks in December 53% of the time with an average 22% annual return, and 2025 is tracking historical norms with plenty of runway left to reach that average
“we remain bullish on US large cap equities through year end and see any near-term incremental weakness as buying opportunities”
90d +1.2% · 180d +6.2%
A Year-End Rally Could Double The S&P 500's Gain This Year
2025-07-21
Big Tech
bullish
The Compound · video
The NASDAQ composite is tracking its mid-1990s internet bull run almost exactly — currently equivalent to July 1997 — suggesting years of additional upside remain as GenAI achieves mainstream adoption and killer-app proliferation just as the internet did
“US large cap tech stocks are still early in a secular bull run driven by monetization opportunities around Gen AI”
90d +8.5% · 180d +8.0% · 1y +26.3%
The AI Bull Market Is Perfectly Tracking the Original 90’s Internet Boom | WDWL?
2025-07-21
long NVDA / short AAPL
pair
The Compound · video
Within big tech the Magnificent 7 has bifurcated into GenAI monetization winners (Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Broadcom) that deserve outperformance and structural laggards (Apple, Google, Amazon, Tesla) with unclear GenAI revenue paths that should underperform
“The Magnificent 7 is dead with investors now picking winners and losers between US big tech names”
90d -8.5% · 180d -6.2% · 1y -16.9%
The AI Bull Market Is Perfectly Tracking the Original 90’s Internet Boom | WDWL?
2025-07-21
long SPX / short European Equities
pair
The Compound · video
US equities have a structural 20-year outperformance tailwind over European equities as global private capital — already $600B in the trailing 12 months — systematically reallocates toward the US innovation ecosystem that Europe cannot replicate
“US multiples may not have an upper limit relative to history”
90d +1.1% · 180d -1.3% · 1y +1.2%
The AI Bull Market Is Perfectly Tracking the Original 90’s Internet Boom | WDWL?
2025-02-03
XLV
bullish
The Compound · video
Healthcare is at near-3-sigma underperformance vs S&P (27.6pp trailing), trades at 17.8x 2025 earnings vs S&P 22x and Tech 28x, and a shift from negative to positive operating leverage should drive ~21% EPS growth in 2025 as growth investors rotate out of…
“the only down sector was Tech and the best performing sector was Healthcare — what else do you need to know”
90d -6.0% · 180d -9.0% · 1y +6.4%
Four Rules for Negative Market Catalysts | WDWL
2025-02-03
META
bullish
The Compound · video
Cheap AI from DeepSeek reduces Meta's need to spend on building AI infrastructure (planned $60-65B capex at risk of revision down), freeing capital for shareholder returns while Meta's existing open-source LLM lets it focus on monetizable tools for its large…
“cheap AI means a lot more Capital to return to shareholders through stock buybacks or dividends”
90d -14.0% · 180d +11.5% · 1y -0.5%
Four Rules for Negative Market Catalysts | WDWL
2024-10-28
Big Tech
bullish
The Compound · video
Three-year rolling returns for both indices are at or well below their 50-year long-run averages (S&P +28% vs 29% avg; Nasdaq +23% vs 41% avg), indicating no bubble conditions and room to run as long as the economy and corporate profits continue growing
“the S&P and Nasdaq's three year rolling returns have plenty of room to run before looking overextended”
90d +4.0% · 180d -4.3% · 1y +28.4%
Here's the Real Reason Treasury Yields Are Rising
2024-09-23
long Big Tech / short SPX
pair
The Compound · video
QQQ lagged the S&P by more than one standard deviation over the prior 100 trading days, a level that has historically preceded NASDAQ 100 outperformance of ~4 points over the subsequent 100 trading days two-thirds of the time
“it tends to mean revert over the following five calendar months”
90d +1.8% · 180d +0.2% · 1y +3.3%
Did the Fed just blow it?
2024-08-19
SPX
bullish
The Compound · video
Historical pattern shows S&P 500 peaks in Q4 70% of the time since 1980 and in December 50% of the time, and with VIX likely having peaked for the year at 38.6, falling volatility inversely correlates with a year-end melt-up in equities
“stocks tend to melt up so we're still bullish through year end”
90d +5.4% · 180d +10.0% · 1y +15.8%
Only One Factor Drives Bitcoin Prices and This Is It
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