Investors / stance tracking
What Jim Bianco is saying
Macro strategist — Bianco Research
34 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-27, most recently 2026-08-03. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Jim Bianco's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Jim Bianco is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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34
tracked stances
17
themes
3
side flips
2026-08-03
last heard
Returns 90d +1.6% (n=28) · 180d +4.9% (n=22) · 1y +8.1% (n=18)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
USTS — bearish2026-04-09 → bullish2026-05-20
USTS — bullish2025-06-04 → bearish2026-03-12
USD — bearish2025-04-15 → bullish2026-03-12
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Dur Treasuries | 7 | 7 bearish | 2026-05-20 | |
| USTS | 5 | 3 bullish / 2 bearish | 2026-05-22 | |
| GOLD | 3 | 1 bullish / 2 neutral | 2026-05-20 | |
| OIL | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-05-20 | |
| SPX | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-08-03 | |
| USD | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-03-12 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-08-03
ENERGY
neutral
Wealthion · video
AI adoption is still in early innings with only ~2% of knowledge workers using it productively and tokens still expensive, meaning we are compute-constrained not overcapacity, so the bubble peak is years away and AI stocks retain the highest expected return
“if you want to go with the market that has the higher expected return, you want to be in AI stocks”
Jim Bianco: There Are Now Two Stock Markets
2026-08-03
SPX
bullish
Wealthion · video
Non-AI stocks have decoupled from the AI complex with correlation turning negative, outperformed AI stocks YTD, and are signaling the underlying economy outside data centers and chips is healthy
“the non-AI stocks have outperformed AI stocks year to date”
Jim Bianco: There Are Now Two Stock Markets
2026-05-22
USTS
bullish
Wealthion · video
All-in yields on investment-grade bonds are currently around 5%, offering competitive returns with principal return at maturity, making them a viable diversifier if investors accept realistic 5–7% portfolio return expectations
“bonds with yields, all-in yields... you can probably get 5%. And remember, bonds mature and then you'll get your principal back.”
90d +0.1%
Jim Bianco: AI Is Holding Up A Broken Market
2026-05-22
AI/CHIPS MEGA-CAP STOCKS (MAGNIFICENT 7 + AI THEME)
bullish
Wealthion · video
AI-driven earnings growth (S&P earnings up 27% YoY, partly fueled by cross-ownership mark-to-market gains from Anthropic) and a credible long-term revenue model replacing expensive SaaS stacks justify continued outperformance of AI/chip names even as the…
“it's AI that is the most important thing right now for financial markets. And oil is still a backseat trade for it.”
Jim Bianco: AI Is Holding Up A Broken Market
2026-05-22
ANTHROPIC (PRIVATE)
bullish
Wealthion · video
Anthropic's rapidly rising private-market valuation (from $380B to ~$900B in two quarters) is mechanically adding ~10 percentage points to S&P 500 reported earnings via mark-to-market gains at Amazon and Microsoft, making it the single most important driver…
“One company's valuation added 10% to the S&P's earnings.”
Jim Bianco: AI Is Holding Up A Broken Market
2026-05-22
SAAS / LEGACY SOFTWARE STOCKS
bearish
Wealthion · video
AI promises to replace fragmented SaaS software stacks with a single prompt-based interface, destroying the revenue model of incumbent software companies and causing their stocks to crater
“AI's promise is you get rid of all that software. That's why the software stocks are cratering.”
Jim Bianco: AI Is Holding Up A Broken Market
2026-05-20
USTS
bullish
Wealthion · video
With CPI at 3.8% and TIPS paying 2.5-3% real yield on top of that, the all-in return is highly attractive as a diversifier in an inflationary, higher-rate environment.
“TIPS securities extraordinary...paying you 3% real...these are great returns”
90d +0.1%
Jim Bianco: The Fed’s Worst Nightmare Is Here
2026-05-20
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
Rising oil prices from Strait of Hormuz disruption are driving inflation higher, pushing sovereign yields up globally, and the Fed cannot ease without inflaming bond vigilantes further, making long bonds unattractive.
“the risk is higher...if you don't care about it, I don't want to own your bond market”
90d +1.5%
Jim Bianco: The Fed’s Worst Nightmare Is Here
2026-05-20
OIL
bullish
Wealthion · video
Global oil inventories have only weeks left to cover the ~13 million barrel/day deficit caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure, and no diplomatic resolution is in sight, forcing prices higher to ration demand.
“we don't have but a couple more weeks before the cumulative impact of the strait being closed is going to lead to real supply constraints”
90d -9.4%
Jim Bianco: The Fed’s Worst Nightmare Is Here
2026-05-20
GOLD
neutral
Wealthion · video
Metals are trading as risk-on speculative assets rather than safe havens because the buyer base is dominated by paper/derivative speculators, making them unreliable as portfolio diversifiers in a risk-off environment.
“metals are not really related to AI...they are kind of the opposite of AI at this point”
Jim Bianco: The Fed’s Worst Nightmare Is Here
2026-05-20
Private Credit
bearish
Wealthion · video
Private credit funds are overweight software company loans, and agentic AI is causing massive disruption to software cash flows and moats, meaning current near-par valuations will deteriorate significantly within 12-18 months.
“everybody's running to get out because they think in a year or 18 months those levels are going to be far lower”
90d -7.9%
Jim Bianco: The Fed’s Worst Nightmare Is Here
2026-04-09
USTS
bearish
Macro Voices · video
Persistent above-target inflation (~3%), deglobalization pressures, rising geopolitical risk premiums, and term premium normalization should push 10-year yields toward 5%, making long-duration bonds unattractive
“interest rates are probably going to go higher just to hit their fair value, maybe closer to 5%”
90d +1.0%
MacroVoices #527 Adam Rozencwajg & Jim Bianco: What Comes Next After The Iran Crisis
2026-03-12
USTS
bearish
Macro Voices · video
Gasoline up 18% in 9 days will push March CPI to 6-7% annualized and keep year-over-year inflation above 3%, making Fed rate cuts impossible and pressuring fixed income real returns
“that probably is going to give you a March CPI report of around 6 or 7%”
90d +1.1% · 180d +1.7%
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco: Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict.
2026-03-12
FEDERAL RESERVE RATE CUTS
bearish
Macro Voices · video
With 10 of 12 Fed voters making hawkish comments and inflation staying above 3% from oil shock, there are not seven votes for a rate cut regardless of what a new dovish Fed chair might want
“where are the other six votes you're going to get to approve that rate cut?”
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco: Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict.
2026-03-12
OIL
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Strait of Hormuz insurance blockage has cut ~7-8 million barrels/day of Gulf production and could rise to 10-11 million, keeping spot prices elevated relative to deferred contracts while the supply disruption persists
“the forward curve in the crude oil futures market is in record backwardation... minus 25%”
90d +13.4% · 180d +23.3%
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco: Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict.
2026-03-12
GOLD
neutral
Macro Voices · video
Gold's upward momentum stalled after the February reversal and holders are selling large unrealized gains to meet margin calls elsewhere, overriding the typical geopolitical safe-haven bid
“you sell what you can, not what you want... the thing that has big unrealized gains and no momentum”
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco: Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict.
2026-03-12
USD
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Dollar-denominated stablecoins are already replacing local currencies in fragile economies like Venezuela, Afghanistan and Iran, effectively making the Fed the world's default central bank and reinforcing dollar reserve status without new net Treasury demand
“the dollar is maintaining its dominance as the reserve currency... you're seeing it at the margins where they need it most”
90d +1.3% · 180d +1.1%
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco: Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict.
2026-03-12
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Macro Voices · video
Oil-driven inflation is pushing US CPI above 3%, which prevents the Fed from cutting rates; any dovish pivot would spook bond traders into selling, driving yields higher and tightening conditions further
“the Fed is just off the table. They just cannot step in and start cutting rates under that environment”
90d +1.3% · 180d +3.3%
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco: Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict.
2025-08-18
SPX
bullish
Wealthion · video
Extreme S&P valuations compress forward equity returns to low single digits (~6% annually), making bonds at ~5% and cash at ~4% competitive risk-adjusted alternatives, ending the era of 20%+ annual gains and warranting reallocation away from equities
“cash returns you four, bonds will return you about five, and stocks will return you about six”
Jim Bianco: Fed vs. Trump, Inflation Risks & Rate Cuts to Backfire?!
2025-08-18
NVDA
bearish
Wealthion · video
Nvidia and Palantir have become stocks whose 'product is the stock price'—retail holders cannot describe Blackwell chips or what Palantir does—and Bianco flags this as a red flag for their outlook, a sign of unsustainable momentum-driven retail ownership
“when these companies' product becomes the stock price, that's kind of a real red flag”
90d -2.5% · 180d -1.6% · 1y -20.9%
Jim Bianco: Fed vs. Trump, Inflation Risks & Rate Cuts to Backfire?!
2025-08-18
GOLD
bullish
Wealthion · video
In a 4-5-6 return world where stocks deliver only ~6% annually and bonds and cash are competitive alternatives, gold gains a portfolio role as a trade-war and financial-system uncertainty hedge that it lacked when Mag-7 was returning 20-30% per year, with…
“precious metals have had a very good year and you've recently saw 3500 on gold because that now is in play”
90d +21.1% · 180d +46.0% · 1y +29.8%
Jim Bianco: Fed vs. Trump, Inflation Risks & Rate Cuts to Backfire?!
2025-08-18
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
Fed rate cuts into a 3%-inflation, strong-economy environment are the wrong policy, and the market will push back just as it did in the EU and UK post-cut, driving 10-year yields through 5% and 30-year yields toward 5.5%
“yields move through 5% on the 10-year note, yields move towards 5.5% on the 30-year bond”
90d -4.5% · 180d -6.7% · 1y +0.9%
Jim Bianco: Fed vs. Trump, Inflation Risks & Rate Cuts to Backfire?!
2025-06-05
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Post-COVID inflation is structurally stickier, making 5% 30-year yields the new normal rather than a sign of dysfunction; any Fed rate cuts in this environment would cause the bond market to sell off (10yr moving from 3.60 to 4.80 during Sept–Dec cuts proved…
“5% yields are normal. That's where they should be right now. We shouldn't be torturing ourselves.”
90d -1.3% · 180d -5.0% · 1y -2.9%
Stuck in 2019: Why Investors Keep Getting It Wrong
2025-06-04
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Post-COVID stickier inflation normalizes term premiums and real rates at ~2%, and every time the Fed turns dovish bond vigilantes sell long bonds — the 10-year was higher in mid-2025 than at any point during 2022's 9% inflation peak, confirming the 5%+ regime…
“5% yields are normal. That's where they should be right now.”
90d -0.3% · 180d -5.0% · 1y -3.5%
The New Regime People Don’t Want To Accept | Jim Bianco
2025-06-04
USTS
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
At 5% yields, bonds offer a '5% return with less volatility' versus equities' expected ~6% with far greater risk, creating the best risk-adjusted case for fixed income relative to stocks in over a decade — ETF flows already confirm the rotation into bond…
“bonds are going to return you five with less volatility”
90d +2.1% · 180d +4.2% · 1y +3.4%
The New Regime People Don’t Want To Accept | Jim Bianco
2025-06-04
BITCOIN
owns
Forward Guidance · video
Owns Bitcoin in cold storage as an alternative to the current financial system amid rising US fiscal deficits, dollar debasement concerns, and the structural shift away from zero-rate policy.
“that's why I own crypto and cold storage”
90d +6.2% · 180d -17.6% · 1y -39.1%
The New Regime People Don’t Want To Accept | Jim Bianco
2025-06-04
long European Equities / short SPX
pair
Forward Guidance · video
In a period of high uncertainty and rising rates, US equities at a 22x forward PE require nearly everything to go right while European equities at a 12x forward PE only need a few things to go right — the valuation gap makes the rotation into cheap over…
“at a 22PE with rising interest rates, you need almost everything to go right”
90d -3.1% · 180d -4.1% · 1y -5.0%
The New Regime People Don’t Want To Accept | Jim Bianco
2025-04-15
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
The Fed has signaled it will hold rates even in a recession because tariff-driven inflation prevents cuts, making fair value on the 10-year yield above 5% versus the current 440-450 bp level
“I think that fair value is going to be somewhere above 5% on it”
90d +1.4% · 180d -5.4% · 1y -3.3%
50/50 Recession Odds & a Fed That Won't Help? | Jim Bianco
2025-04-15
USD
bearish
Wealthion · video
China has set up legal entities in Belgium and Luxembourg holding ~$700B of US Treasuries specifically to avoid US sanctions, and those entities are likely the source of large-scale Treasury selling and European sovereign bond buying that is driving the…
“that's what I think is going to keep pushing the dollar lower”
90d +0.8% · 180d -1.8% · 1y -2.6%
50/50 Recession Odds & a Fed That Won't Help? | Jim Bianco
2025-04-15
BANKS
bullish
Wealthion · video
Bank stocks are trading at the same price levels as 20 years ago despite decades of economic growth, representing extreme undervaluation relative to any reasonable fundamental progress
“they're trading at the same levels they were trading at 20 years ago and the world has advanced in 20 years”
90d +23.5% · 180d +21.8% · 1y +35.6%
50/50 Recession Odds & a Fed That Won't Help? | Jim Bianco
2025-04-15
Gold Miners
bullish
Wealthion · video
Junior gold miners have significantly lagged the gold price rally, creating a relative catch-up opportunity as gold momentum continues
“the miners and some of the junior miners which have not kept up with the price of gold”
90d +3.8% · 180d +57.1% · 1y +94.9%
50/50 Recession Odds & a Fed That Won't Help? | Jim Bianco
2025-04-15
AI / MAG-7 STOCKS
bearish
Wealthion · video
AI stocks carry extreme valuations that already price in transformative adoption — as with RCA in 1929 and NASDAQ in 2000, the technology can fulfil its promise while the stock prices stagnate for a decade or more
“do not confuse that AI could be a transformative technology... and that's already in those sky-high prices”
50/50 Recession Odds & a Fed That Won't Help? | Jim Bianco
2025-01-20
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Hidden Forces · video
Post-COVID structural shift to persistently higher inflation (~3% vs pre-2020 1.5–2%) combined with large fiscal deficits and the Fed's aggressive September rate cuts paradoxically driving long yields higher by undermining market confidence in the 2%…
“the 30-year bond is less than 15 basis points away from a new 17 or 18-year high”
90d +1.2% · 180d +0.1% · 1y -2.9%
What’s Driving the Rise in Long-Term Bond Yields? | Jim Bianco
2024-08-27
long Investment Grade Credit / short SPX
pair
Forward Guidance · video
After an 80% equity rally in under two years, S&P valuations are stretched toward zero forward return, while investment-grade and treasury bonds already carry 4-5% coupons that cushion any further rate rise if inflation re-accelerates to 3.5-4%—making bonds…
“I'm going to say bonds are going to do a better performer than stocks over the next year”
90d -3.8% · 180d -4.0% · 1y -6.9%
Markets Will Get A Deficit President No Matter What | Jim Bianco & Jeremy Schwartz
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