Investors / stance tracking
What Jurrien Timmer is saying
Director of Global Macro, Fidelity Investments
7 dated public stances tracked since 2024-09-13, most recently 2024-10-29. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Jurrien Timmer's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Jurrien Timmer is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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7
tracked stances
6
themes
0
side flips
2024-10-29
last heard
Returns 90d +8.2% (n=8) · 180d +6.3% (n=8) · 1y +20.9% (n=8)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 2 | 2 bullish | 2024-10-29 | |
| Big Tech | 1 | 1 neutral | 2024-09-13 | |
| Commodities Broad | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-09-13 | |
| GOLD | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-10-29 | |
| Investment Grade Credit | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-09-13 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 1 | 1 bearish | 2024-10-29 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2024-10-29
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Persistent fiscal expansion regardless of election outcome should push the term premium from near-zero to 50-100bps, driving the 10-year yield toward 5% even as the Fed normalizes short rates — a bear steepener dynamic
“if the Fed is cutting modestly and the long end is going up to five, that's a steepening curve — a bear steepener — and that's what we have”
90d +3.1% · 180d +0.7% · 1y -3.3%
Where Are We In The Bull Market? | Jurrien Timmer
2024-10-29
SPX
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
The cyclical and secular bull market remains intact in the seventh inning, with earnings still growing and breadth expanding, though rising yields will compress valuations and reduce forward returns to high single digits versus the prior decade's 16-17%
“this bull market is alive and well”
90d +3.4% · 180d -4.7% · 1y +19.6%
Where Are We In The Bull Market? | Jurrien Timmer
2024-10-29
GOLD
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Falling real yields and rising global money supply growth — amplified by Fed cuts, China stimulus, and ongoing fiscal deficits — are the structural drivers of gold, with a potential 2025 liquidity wave providing additional tailwind
“gold is a pure monetary asset — it responds to real yields and monetary inflation”
90d -1.2% · 180d +20.7% · 1y +41.7%
Where Are We In The Bull Market? | Jurrien Timmer
2024-09-13
SPX
bullish
The Compound · video
The low-vol high-div index offers a 4.4% dividend yield, has built a massive multi-year base, and is now recovering as the best proxy for the rotation-into-everything-else trade as capital exits the Mag7
“you got a dividend yield of 4.4%, you're back at the highs, a massive base there”
90d +7.9% · 180d +0.1% · 1y +19.1%
Earning Man | TCAF 157
2024-09-13
Investment Grade Credit
bullish
The Compound · video
Bonds now carry a positive real yield and have re-established their negative correlation to equities, restoring the diversification role they lost in 2022-23; the upcoming easing cycle should push prices higher while providing portfolio ballast
“bonds have re-earned their seat at the table—they have a positive real yield and they're actually doing what they're supposed to”
90d -2.4% · 180d -2.8% · 1y +3.8%
Earning Man | TCAF 157
2024-09-13
Big Tech
neutral
The Compound · video
S&P equal weight trades at 18x earnings vs 23x cap weight, with earnings growing 9.5% this year and 14% expected next year, while falling rates and a re-steepening yield curve create a more favorable backdrop for the bottom 490 stocks than the expensive…
“the rest of the market has a chance to catch up and they're not expensive, earnings are growing, cost of capital is coming down”
Earning Man | TCAF 157
2024-09-13
Commodities Broad
bullish
The Compound · video
Commodities are a left-behind sector with valuations far below equities; China is the known drag keeping prices suppressed, but that headwind is widely understood and any stabilization there or incremental rate-cut-driven dollar weakness would reprice the…
“I think commodities are really good play. And that's one of the left behind sectors as well”
90d +3.3% · 180d +6.7% · 1y +9.7%
Earning Man | TCAF 157
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