Investors / stance tracking
What Jurrien Timmer is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowDirector of Global Macro, Fidelity Investments
15 dated public stances tracked since 2024-09-13, most recently 2026-10-09. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Jurrien Timmer's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Jurrien Timmer is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
15
tracked stances
12
themes
0
side flips
2026-10-09
last heard
Returns 90d +2.1% 60% correct · 5 calls · 180d +5.1% 80% correct · 5 calls · 1y +14.2% 80% correct · 5 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-29 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +3.1% | +0.7% | -3.4% |
| 2024-10-29 | GOLD | bullish | -1.2% | +20.7% | +41.7% |
| 2024-09-13 | SPX | bullish | +7.9% | +0.1% | +19.1% |
| 2024-09-13 | Investment Grade Credit | bullish | -2.4% | -2.8% | +3.8% |
| 2024-09-13 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +3.3% | +6.7% | +9.7% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commodities Broad | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-10-09 | |
| GOLD | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-10-09 | |
| BANKS | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-10-09 | |
| BITCOIN | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-10-09 | |
| Big Tech | 1 | 1 neutral | 2024-09-13 | |
| High Yield | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-10-09 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-09
long BITCOIN / long GOLD
ratio
The Compound · video
Both gold and Bitcoin will appreciate as global liquidity grows, but Bitcoin's power-law dynamics and shrinking winter cycles mean the Bitcoin/gold ratio should rise — own both but overweight Bitcoin
“I think they're both going to go up and Bitcoin is going to go up more”
This Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road | TCAF 263
2026-10-09
Commodities Broad
bullish
The Compound · video
The Bloomberg Commodity spot index sits in the lower-left quadrant of the correlation matrix — negatively correlated to both equities and bonds simultaneously — providing genuine diversification that bonds no longer offer when inflation is elevated
“the BCOM spot index is negatively correlated to everything else”
This Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road | TCAF 263
Gold now tracks global M2 growth (~7-9% annually, $120T base) rather than real rates; current price (~$4,200-4,390) is below Timmer's $5,000 fair-value model, with continued central-bank buying as a structural tailwind
“5,000 to me is the right number and rising”
This Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road | TCAF 263
Bitcoin confirmed a double bottom by breaking above $80K; power-law harmonic pattern intact, Bitcoin winters are shrinking in length and depth (maturing asset), and Bitcoin should outperform gold as global liquidity expands
“I think they're both going to go up and Bitcoin is going to go up more”
This Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road | TCAF 263
European banks were structurally impaired by negative rates for years; the shift to positive yields dramatically improves net interest margins and enables high capital returns — payout ratios hit 88% and the sector outperformed the S&P by as much as AI stocks…
“that's been one of my favorite sectors”
This Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road | TCAF 263
2026-10-09
TIPS
bullish
The Compound · video
Short-to-intermediate TIPS (~2.5yr duration) offer ~2.5% real yield, locking in inflation-adjusted returns with minimal interest-rate exposure in an environment where inflation is likely to run 3%+
“I love short to intermediate term tips right now”
This Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road | TCAF 263
At ~5.3% nominal / ~2.9% real yield, 10-year Treasuries offer asymmetric risk/reward — a 100bps rally delivers +11% total return while a 100bps selloff costs only -1%, underpinned by real rates that are genuinely attractive for the first time in a decade
“those are pretty good numbers”
This Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road | TCAF 263
2026-10-09
Managed Futures
bullish
The Compound · video
Managed futures (typically long commodities, short bonds) are negatively correlated to both equities and bonds, making them an effective replacement for the 40% bond sleeve as the stock-bond correlation turns positive in a high-inflation, rising-rate regime
“Managed futures the same probably because they all are long commodities and short bonds”
This Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road | TCAF 263
2026-10-09
High Yield
bullish
The Compound · video
Leveraged loans deliver high-yield-like spreads with floating-rate coupons, eliminating duration risk entirely, making them attractive in a rising or persistently elevated rate environment
“no duration risk, those are interesting”
This Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road | TCAF 263
2024-10-29
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Persistent fiscal expansion regardless of election outcome should push the term premium from near-zero to 50-100bps, driving the 10-year yield toward 5% even as the Fed normalizes short rates — a bear steepener dynamic
“if the Fed is cutting modestly and the long end is going up to five, that's a steepening curve — a bear steepener — and that's what we have”
90d +3.1% · 180d +0.7% · 1y -3.4%
Where Are We In The Bull Market? | Jurrien Timmer
Falling real yields and rising global money supply growth — amplified by Fed cuts, China stimulus, and ongoing fiscal deficits — are the structural drivers of gold, with a potential 2025 liquidity wave providing additional tailwind
“gold is a pure monetary asset — it responds to real yields and monetary inflation”
90d -1.2% · 180d +20.7% · 1y +41.7%
Where Are We In The Bull Market? | Jurrien Timmer
The low-vol high-div index offers a 4.4% dividend yield, has built a massive multi-year base, and is now recovering as the best proxy for the rotation-into-everything-else trade as capital exits the Mag7
“you got a dividend yield of 4.4%, you're back at the highs, a massive base there”
90d +7.9% · 180d +0.1% · 1y +19.1%
Earning Man | TCAF 157
Said again: 2024-10-29 (Forward Guidance)
2024-09-13
Investment Grade Credit
bullish
The Compound · video
Bonds now carry a positive real yield and have re-established their negative correlation to equities, restoring the diversification role they lost in 2022-23; the upcoming easing cycle should push prices higher while providing portfolio ballast
“bonds have re-earned their seat at the table—they have a positive real yield and they're actually doing what they're supposed to”
90d -2.4% · 180d -2.8% · 1y +3.8%
Earning Man | TCAF 157
2024-09-13
Big Tech
neutral
The Compound · video
S&P equal weight trades at 18x earnings vs 23x cap weight, with earnings growing 9.5% this year and 14% expected next year, while falling rates and a re-steepening yield curve create a more favorable backdrop for the bottom 490 stocks than the expensive…
“the rest of the market has a chance to catch up and they're not expensive, earnings are growing, cost of capital is coming down”
Earning Man | TCAF 157
2024-09-13
Commodities Broad
bullish
The Compound · video
Commodities are a left-behind sector with valuations far below equities; China is the known drag keeping prices suppressed, but that headwind is widely understood and any stabilization there or incremental rate-cut-driven dollar weakness would reprice the…
“I think commodities are really good play. And that's one of the left behind sectors as well”
90d +3.3% · 180d +6.7% · 1y +9.7%
Earning Man | TCAF 157
Idea Scout Weekly
Every Sunday: who said what across the tape we track — 1766 voices, 5,177 episodes and articles — with side-flips and points of disagreement called out. Free. How we track it.
Free · double opt-in · unsubscribe in one click