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Investors / stance tracking

What Larry Mcdonald is saying

Founder, The Bear Traps Report

55 dated public stances tracked since 2024-10-24, most recently 2026-10-16. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

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bullish

NKE · Larry Mcdonald

McDonald argued that heavy selling had created a capitulation opportunity in Nike, with a potential recovery extending toward the 2028 Olympics.

Original interview ↗Larry McDonald: The Market Has Already Crashed. The Index Just Hasn’t Noticed

Editorial summaries of public statements. Dates belong to the cited sources; they are not trade execution dates.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Larry Mcdonald's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Larry Mcdonald is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

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55
tracked stances
33
themes
0
side flips
2026-10-16
last heard
Returns  90d +3.4% 54% correct · 28 calls · 180d +9.5% 52% correct · 21 calls · 1y +37.1% 76% correct · 21 calls
Points  Score 9.5 · 9/17 names green at 90 days · how it’s scored

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.

Scored calls

Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.

DateNameCall90d180d1y
2026-06-11SPXbearish-3.6%——
2026-06-11SLBbullish+2.4%——
2026-06-11IVOLbullish-3.4%——
2026-06-11ISRGbullish-14.4%——
2026-06-11ENERGYbullish+15.1%——
2026-06-11Big Techbearish+0.0%——
2026-06-11AEMbullish+28.6%——
2025-04-04short SPX / long European Equitiespair-1.4%-3.4%+0.5%
2025-04-04long GOLD / long NEM / long AEMbasket+22.4%+65.1%+107.7%
2025-04-04USDbearish+4.5%+2.7%-1.8%
2025-04-04SILVERbullish+23.7%+58.5%+144.1%
2025-04-02long ENERGY / long ENERGYbasket-8.5%-2.5%+29.9%
2025-04-02WFRDbullish-3.5%+27.4%+77.8%
2025-04-02SPXbearish-9.7%-18.2%-17.5%
2025-04-02SLBbullish-15.8%-15.4%+20.8%
2025-04-02OIHbullish-11.0%-0.6%+52.4%
2025-04-02NEMbullish+21.3%+74.9%+137.1%
2025-04-02GOLDbullish+6.7%+22.3%+49.0%
2025-04-02EWUbullish+8.1%+12.9%+27.9%
2025-04-02EMLCbullish+7.8%+10.2%+12.2%
2025-04-02Big Techbearish-15.0%-26.0%-23.5%
2024-10-24long Commodities Broad / short SPXratio-0.6%+3.7%-6.0%
2024-10-24URANIUMbullish-1.9%-26.7%+66.5%
2024-10-24SLBbullish+1.6%-15.0%-10.5%
2024-10-24SILVERbullish-8.6%-3.9%+43.3%
2024-10-24GOLDbullish+0.6%+23.1%+49.3%
2024-10-24ENERGYbullish+3.1%-7.9%+1.3%
2024-10-24ARbullish+47.1%+18.6%+18.1%

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
SLB44 bullish2026-10-16
ENERGY33 bullish2026-10-16
GOLD33 bullish2026-10-16
SPX33 bearish2026-10-16
AR22 bullish2026-10-16
Big Tech22 bearish2026-06-11

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-10-16 long NKE / short SPX hedge Wealthion · video
S&P 500 AI concentration creates a year-end opportunity to buy beaten-down Hall of Fame brands (down 35-80%) during tax-loss selling while hedging through the overpriced cap-weighted index, targeting a January-effect bounce
“you want to get long, the wonderful brands and maybe think of it even shorting the index or buying puts on the index”
Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year
2026-10-16 long USTS / short AAPL hedge Wealthion · video
Apple bonds at 47 cents and 2-year equity puts create a seesaw where the only scenario the bonds lose value (rates rise further) is also the scenario the equity puts win, providing asymmetric protection against Apple's $5T valuation
“if you buy the bonds of 47... and you buy like two-year puts on the Apple equity”
Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year
2026-10-16 ENERGY bullish Wealthion · video
In sustained inflationary high-rate regimes, hard-asset companies gain index share (1968-81: grew to 50% of S&P); current 14% weight should reach 20-30% as trillions rotate out of $43T NASDAQ 100 driven by financial repression
“Over the next five years, trillions are going to come out of financial assets... going to go into companies that control hard assets”
Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year
2026-10-16 SPX bearish Wealthion · video
S&P 500 is 50% tech and AI IPOs (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI) entering indexes at $5T combined will offload Silicon Valley insiders onto retail 401k holders, setting up a 30% decline followed by a flat decade similar to 2000-2010
“The S&P is going to drop 30%... it's probably going to be flat for eight years”
Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year
2026-10-16 ISRG bullish Wealthion · video
Intuitive Surgical owns the global dataset on robotic surgeries; as robotic procedure adoption grows 500-600% worldwide, this proprietary data moat makes it the primary AI beneficiary in healthcare
“Intuitive surgical... when you have the data... percentage of robotic type surgeries globally are going to probably go up like five 600%”
Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year
2026-10-16 SLB bullish Wealthion · video
Schlumberger owns proprietary oilfield operational data that positions it to double or triple over 5-10 years as AI value migrates to data-moat companies rather than commoditized software providers
“SLB they have the data... the stock could potentially double triple the next 5 10 years”
Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year
2026-10-16 GOLD bullish Wealthion · video
US sanctions policy triggered a structural shift as China cut Treasury holdings by $600-700B and rotated into gold; financial repression mechanics and empire-decline dynamics will sustain multi-year central bank demand
“Gold is crushing the NASDAQ... it's just amazing how much airtime this gets because it's a bubble”
Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year
2026-10-16 AR bullish Wealthion · video
Natural gas companies like Antero Resources offer 8-10% free cash flow yields while buying back 10-15% of equity annually, providing far superior risk/reward versus AI-exposed equities in a hard-asset regime
“Look at Antaro range resources. The companies are buying back 10 to 15% of the equity underneath you with that free cash flow”
Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year
2026-10-16 XME bullish Wealthion · video
Metals ETF has outperformed NASDAQ over 2-4 years yet the entire sector is less than $1T vs $43T in NASDAQ 100; household commodity equity allocation at ~1% vs 4% in 1981 signals extreme structural underweighting
“Look at the XME... it's basically destroying the NASDAQ, but nobody knows because it's not on CNBC every day”
Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year
2026-10-16 RSP bullish Wealthion · video
S&P 500 equal weight eliminates the 50% tech/AI concentration in cap-weighted indexes that represents fiduciary malpractice for retirement savers; equal weight provides real-economy diversification including hard-asset sectors
“Buy the RSP or the S&P 500 equal weight — that's another way to own the S&P”
Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year
2026-10-16 BITCOIN bearish Wealthion · video
Bought on summer 2026 lows but recently trimmed as quantum computing risk has gained mainstream institutional acceptance (~50% of institutional investors now view it as a credible 5-7 year threat to Bitcoin's cryptographic security)
“we recently lightened it. I'm worried about quantum computing because at the dinners... 50% of institutional investors think it's a threat five to seven years from now”
Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year
2026-10-16 NVDA bearish Wealthion · video
Nvidia is overcharging for current-generation chips in an unsustainable capex testosterone contest; new chip generations will commoditize older ones and the stock will be cut in half over 2-3 years as the AI capex cycle slows
“Nvidia is going to get cut in half the next like two, three years”
Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year
2026-10-16 BAX bullish Wealthion · video
Baxter's proprietary healthcare data gives it the same AI data moat as SLB and Intuitive Surgical, positioning it to capitalize on AI as value accrues to data owners rather than software providers
“Baxter, Intuitive Surgical, and Slumber are our three big picks for really companies that will harness the power of AI”
Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year
2026-10-16 COPPER bullish Wealthion · video
AI data center buildout requires hundreds of thousands of tons of copper for construction and grid upgrades; India energy infrastructure build-out adds structural demand making copper a core hard-asset holding
“Think of all the copper... hundreds and thousands of tons of copper are going to need to be needed for the data centers to rebuild the power grid”
Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year
2026-10-15 long BEATEN-DOWN CONSUMER BRAND BASKET (NIKE, HOME DEPOT, MCDONALD'S, DIAGEO, TARGET AND SIMILAR HALL OF FAME NAMES) / short SPX pair Julia La Roche Show · video
Passive inflows have concentrated gains in mega-cap tech while Hall of Fame consumer brands are down 30-70%, creating the widest index-vs.-breadth divergence Larry has seen in his career; year-end tax-loss selling deepens the dislocation, and in Q1 a…
“the spread between the part of the market that crashed and the index is probably one of the largest in our lifetimes”
Larry McDonald: The Market Has Already Crashed. The Index Just Hasn’t Noticed
2026-10-15 NKE bullish Julia La Roche Show · video
Nike is triggering a seven-factor Category 5 capitulation signal — historically preceding 150%+ recoveries in Intel and Alibaba — while year-end tax-loss selling artificially deepens the dislocation; the 5% dividend is protected by $8B cash and $2-3B in free…
“The likelihood of something like Nike coming out before the 2028 Summer Olympics increases by 100, 150, 200%”
Larry McDonald: The Market Has Already Crashed. The Index Just Hasn’t Noticed
Said again: 2026-10-16 (Wealthion)
2026-10-15 IGV bearish Julia La Roche Show · video
Software ETF has rotated back to all-time highs driven by Palantir at 'absurdly high levels' and rotational money fleeing semiconductors, but the sector is maxed out and the same rotation will reverse when semis stabilize and passive flows normalize
“I would actually buy put options on IGV”
Larry McDonald: The Market Has Already Crashed. The Index Just Hasn’t Noticed
2026-09-08 long SLB / long COAL MINERS / long COPPER / long GOLD basket Julia La Roche Show · video
Companies controlling physical hard assets are delivering outsized real returns relative to big tech burning cash on uncertain AI capex, and McDonald remains max long this basket as a multi-year core position
“we've been really just bullish on companies like total hard assets”
Larry McDonald: The Bond Market's Biggest Contrarian Trade
2026-09-08 Long Dur Treasuries bullish Julia La Roche Show · video
Bond bearishness is at extreme historical levels with record crowded short positioning so the bad news is 80–90% priced in — and if hot inflation triggers a supernova-to-recession dynamic, long-duration bonds would rally sharply as the Fed eventually cuts…
“I think that you want to start at least thinking about buying long-term bonds”
Larry McDonald: The Bond Market's Biggest Contrarian Trade
Said again: 2026-10-15 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-10-16 (Wealthion)
2026-09-08 BANKS bearish Julia La Roche Show · video
Financials sit at record price-to-book with Wall Street universally long them and deregulation euphoria fully discounted, while the sector is quietly absorbing hundreds of billions in off-balance-sheet data center debt — an arrangement that rhymes with…
“you can buy one year puts on say Bank of America for very cheap”
Larry McDonald: The Bond Market's Biggest Contrarian Trade
2026-09-08 VIXY bullish Julia La Roche Show · video
Equity volatility is historically cheap relative to accumulating risks — crowded financial longs at record price-to-book, hundreds of billions in off-balance-sheet data center debt rhyming with 2006, and a diesel-driven inflation resurgence threatening the…
“renting something like that like the Vixy ETF for September and October, you know, we think makes a lot of sense”
Larry McDonald: The Bond Market's Biggest Contrarian Trade
2026-06-11 AEM bullish Macro Voices · video
Agnico Eagle is at historically cheap 5.9x EV/EBITDA with $6-7B free cash flow and a $2B buyback while already down 40%, driven by a hot-money tourist flush that created forced selling by EM central banks needing liquidity during the energy shock
“when you're already down 40%, it's pricing in a lot of pain, but your valuation is the cheapest of all time”
90d +28.6%
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 2S30S YIELD CURVE STEEPENER bullish Macro Voices · video
The Fed cannot credibly hike with $1.1T in annual interest payments on the debt (vs $300B when they last hiked), so the market's pricing of rate hikes and the resulting curve flattening is wrong and will reverse into a steep steepening
“the muscle memory in the market thinks the Fed's going to hike — to me it's a mirage, they really can't hike that much”
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 ENERGY bullish Macro Voices · video
Rotation from overvalued financial assets (NASDAQ 100 at all-time-high CAPE) into energy equities with historically cheap free cash flow yields is a replay of 2022 where energy was up over 100% during the prior inflation shock
“the free cash flow yields in the energy space are so cheap ... probably the cheapest part of the market”
90d +15.1%
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 MATERIALS SECTOR bullish Macro Voices · video
Materials stocks control hard assets and historically outperformed dramatically in the 2022 inflation shock regime, and the same macro backdrop (sticky inflation, supply chain stress, Hormuz closure) is now repeating
“in 2022 energy stocks were up well over 100% ... materials the same thing's going to play out again”
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 SPX bearish Macro Voices · video
Massive tech IPO capital raises ($200-250B immediate plus $3T lockup overhang) will drain liquidity from large-cap S&P names while small-caps benefit from the value rotation, with the IWM/SPX wedge already breaking out technically
“you'll see a great migration out of the S&P back toward the Russell 2000”
90d -3.6%
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 ISRG bullish Macro Voices · video
Intuitive Surgical has an unassailable proprietary surgical data moat that positions it as a dominant AI beneficiary over the next decade, similar to Tesla's road data advantage, while the stock is currently unloved and sitting on its 200-day moving average
“if you buy intuitive surgical now on the 200-day moving average, to us that's a really screaming buy”
90d -14.4%
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 TOU bullish Macro Voices · video
Tourmaline Oil holds trapped Canadian natural gas that hyperscalers are in active discussions to harness for co-located data center power, while the Hormuz closure simultaneously increases the global value of North American LNG as a supply alternative
“taking trap gas and making it available to data centers — Tourmaline's in discussion with hyperscalers right now”
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 Big Tech bearish Macro Voices · video
NASDAQ 100 surged from $30T to $41T in under 50 trading days — the fastest value creation ever — while CFOs are simultaneously dumping equity via convertible bonds and major insiders are selling into SpaceX/Google/Anthropic raises, mirroring Q3-Q4 2021 before…
“the NASDAQ 100 went from 30 to 41 trillion in less than 50 trading days. Nothing like that has ever happened in the history of markets”
90d +0.0%
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 SLB bullish Macro Voices · video
Oil services companies like SLB control hard assets and own proprietary data sets that make them one of the most underowned AI beneficiaries, while the broader market is crowded into semiconductors
“the artificial intelligence potential of SLB is literally one of the most exciting trades I can think of”
90d +2.4%
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 IVOL bullish Macro Voices · video
IVOL is a battered way to express the 2s30s yield curve steepener view: the Fed cannot actually hike aggressively with $1.1T annual interest on the debt, so the market's flat-curve pricing of Fed hikes is a mirage that will unwind via steepening
“the IVOL ETF which has been battered ... the Fed really can't hike that much and the curve is going to steepen a lot”
90d -3.4%
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2025-04-04 long GOLD / long NEM / long AEM basket Wealthion · video
Gold miners Barrick, Newmont, and Agnico Eagle trade at historically low EV/EBITDA multiples with delevered balance sheets while central banks are structurally forced to buy gold to diversify away from sanctions-weaponized treasuries
“their true price to cash flow...still in the very low um percentages historically very rare area”
90d +22.4% · 180d +65.1% · 1y +107.7%
Larry McDonald: Investors Fleeing U.S. Markets - Where the Smart Money Is Going | Part II
2025-04-04 short SPX / long European Equities pair Wealthion · video
Capital is fleeing US markets amid dollar decline and recession risk and rotating into undervalued European equities where fiscal expansion is supportive and valuations are cheaper
“sell the US, get long Europe”
90d -1.4% · 180d -3.4% · 1y +0.5%
Larry McDonald: Investors Fleeing U.S. Markets - Where the Smart Money Is Going | Part II
2025-04-04 SILVER bullish Wealthion · video
Silver miners are cheap with secular tailwinds from solar and robotics demand and could deliver 3-10x returns as the Fed turns dovish under Trump and silver closes its historical discount to gold
“with some of the silver miners, you got three to 10 baggers”
90d +23.7% · 180d +58.5% · 1y +144.1%
Larry McDonald: Investors Fleeing U.S. Markets - Where the Smart Money Is Going | Part II
2025-04-04 PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM bullish Wealthion · video
Platinum and palladium offer hard-asset exposure to the central bank diversification trend without the crowd and premium already embedded in gold's $16T market cap
“things that are in the hard asset community, but not as overcrowded as gold”
Larry McDonald: Investors Fleeing U.S. Markets - Where the Smart Money Is Going | Part II
2025-04-04 USD bearish Wealthion · video
Twin deficits, $1T in annual interest costs from front-end T-bill refunding, fiscal expansion in China and Europe, and the Trump team's explicit desire for a structurally weaker dollar all converge on sustained USD decline
“that's a recipe for a really weak weak dollar”
90d +4.5% · 180d +2.7% · 1y -1.8%
Larry McDonald: Investors Fleeing U.S. Markets - Where the Smart Money Is Going | Part II
2025-04-02 long ENERGY / long ENERGY basket Wealthion · video
Exxon and Chevron are deeply undervalued relative to Nvidia — combined market cap is only 29% of Nvidia's — and as capital rotates from growth into hard-asset energy majors over 1-5 years they will reclaim top-10 S&P 500 positions
“combined market cap of Exxon and Chevron this month was only 29% of Nvidia”
90d -8.5% · 180d -2.5% · 1y +29.9%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 SPX bearish Wealthion · video
Real S&P 500 earnings are ~$230 not the street's $270 consensus per CFO guidance, and at a stagflation-appropriate 15-18x multiple fair value is 3,500-4,300 vs current ~5,700
“if you throw an 18 multiple on there, the S&P should be at 4,100, not 5600”
90d -9.7% · 180d -18.2% · 1y -17.5%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
Said again: 2025-04-04 (Wealthion)
2025-04-02 Big Tech bearish Wealthion · video
NASDAQ 100 has already shed $4T from $27T to $23T as stagflation pressures compress growth multiples via higher discount rates, and the rotation out of tech into hard assets has further to run
“24 trillion in the NASDAQ 100... that money is moving into gold miners, European equities, global value”
90d -15.0% · 180d -26.0% · 1y -23.5%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 SLB bullish Wealthion · video
Schlumberger offers strong earnings power and share repurchases; oil services broadly outperform in a stagflationary environment as hard-asset companies command premium multiples over growth names
90d -15.8% · 180d -15.4% · 1y +20.8%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 GOLD bullish Wealthion · video
In a stagflationary regime analogous to 1968-81, gold and commodity producers dramatically outperformed; capital rotating out of $24T NASDAQ 100 is already moving into gold miners as a primary destination
“that money is moving into gold miners, European equities, global value”
90d +6.7% · 180d +22.3% · 1y +49.0%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 WFRD bullish Wealthion · video
Weatherford has strong earnings power and is buying back stock; oil services names dramatically outperform in stagflationary regimes where growth stock DCF values collapse under high discount rates
“look at stocks like Weatherford... great earnings power, buying back stocks”
90d -3.5% · 180d +27.4% · 1y +77.8%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
Said again: 2025-04-04 (Wealthion)
2025-04-02 OIH bullish Wealthion · video
Oil services ETF captures stagflationary outperformance pattern where oil names rose 60% from 1968-81 while the broad market was flat; Weatherford and Schlumberger show strong earnings power and buybacks
“from 1968 to 81 the market was flat but oil names were up 60%... you can look at the OIH”
90d -11.0% · 180d -0.6% · 1y +52.4%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 Long Dur Treasuries neutral Wealthion · video
TLT has tactical rally room on recession fears but structurally limited upside because rates are on a higher plane than 2010-2020 due to sticky inflation and fiscal irresponsibility
“you can own the TLT here, but you want to be careful”
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 NEM bullish Wealthion · video
Newmont is a core hard-asset holding positioned to benefit from stagflation-driven multiple expansion and capital rotation out of growth stocks into commodity producers with assets in the ground
“your Numods, your barracks, those types of companies”
90d +21.3% · 180d +74.9% · 1y +137.1%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 COAL ETFS bullish Wealthion · video
Coal names are very cheap on a valuation basis and, as hard-asset companies, are positioned to outperform in a stagflationary environment where high inflation and rates favor companies with assets in the ground over growth stocks
“you can look at ETFs in the coal space, they're pretty... the coal names are very cheap”
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 EMLC bullish Wealthion · video
Weaker USD from US growth slowdown boosts emerging market local currency bond returns; geographic diversification away from structurally impaired US bonds is essential in a higher-inflation regime
“you maybe want to think about the EMLC, your emerging market local currency bond fund”
90d +7.8% · 180d +10.2% · 1y +12.2%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 EWU bullish Wealthion · video
Capital is migrating from US fiscal contraction into Europe's fiscal expansion; European stocks trade at 14-15x earnings vs US 23-24x, with top EWU holdings (BHP, Rio Tinto) providing hard-asset exposure
“you want to think about the EWU portfolio which is a global value basket”
90d +8.1% · 180d +12.9% · 1y +27.9%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2024-10-24 long Commodities Broad / short SPX ratio Wealthion · video
The Dow/Gold ratio at ~16:1 is historically extreme and should compress toward 5-8:1 as sustained inflation and fiscal crisis erode financial assets while hard-asset companies with large commodity reserves outperform
“that should in the 80s reach almost one to one—we're not going to get there but 8 to 1, 5 to 1”
90d -0.6% · 180d +3.7% · 1y -6.0%
Larry McDonald: Inflation, Energy Shocks & The New Economic Paradigm
2024-10-24 ENERGY bullish Wealthion · video
Tax-loss selling has pushed OXY below the price at which Buffett made his most recent purchase of 80 million shares, creating a Buffett-floor entry in an oil price recovery setup
“you can buy Occidental below where Buffett bought his last 80 million shares”
90d +3.1% · 180d -7.9% · 1y +1.3%
Larry McDonald: Inflation, Energy Shocks & The New Economic Paradigm
Said again: 2024-10-26 (Wealthion)
2024-10-24 SLB bullish Wealthion · video
Oil services companies benefit from a Trump 'drill baby drill' deregulatory cycle and an oil price recovery from seasonal lows, with SLB offering a technically attractive entry near its 200-week moving average
“you can buy Slumber around the 200-week moving average—that's a really interesting place”
90d +1.6% · 180d -15.0% · 1y -10.5%
Larry McDonald: Inflation, Energy Shocks & The New Economic Paradigm
2024-10-24 GOLD bullish Wealthion · video
The gold-miners-to-metal ratio is beginning to break out after years of underperformance, marking early innings of a move that mirrors the broader commodity vs. financial-asset regime shift
“those ratios are starting to break out again—early innings of a move”
90d +0.6% · 180d +23.1% · 1y +49.3%
Larry McDonald: Inflation, Energy Shocks & The New Economic Paradigm
2024-10-24 URANIUM bullish Wealthion · video
AI data center build-out requires massive new power generation, and the entire uranium sector is only ~$45B market cap—a rounding error vs Nvidia's $3.5T—creating enormous asymmetric upside as institutional capital rotates from the commodity into the mining…
“the entire uranium sector is like 45 billion dollars—it's a joke”
90d -1.9% · 180d -26.7% · 1y +66.5%
Larry McDonald: Inflation, Energy Shocks & The New Economic Paradigm
2024-10-24 AR bullish Wealthion · video
Antero Resources trades at ~10% free cash flow yield with 10-12% share buybacks and a cleaned-up balance sheet, and natural gas price should rise from $2.50 to $5 over 5 years as European demand and data center energy needs absorb the current glut
“Antero of the world AR Equity are going to be a big beneficiary”
90d +47.1% · 180d +18.6% · 1y +18.1%
Larry McDonald: Inflation, Energy Shocks & The New Economic Paradigm
2024-10-24 SILVER bullish Wealthion · video
A fiscal overdose regime ($16T stimulus post-COVID), multi-polar geopolitics, and resurgent inflation are shifting the DJIA/gold ratio from ~16:1 toward historical lows, making precious metals the preferred store of value over financial assets
“you want to be in Silver Platinum Palladium”
90d -8.6% · 180d -3.9% · 1y +43.3%
Larry McDonald: Inflation, Energy Shocks & The New Economic Paradigm

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