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What Larry Mcdonald is saying

Founder, The Bear Traps Report

32 dated public stances tracked since 2024-10-24, most recently 2026-06-11. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Larry Mcdonald's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Larry Mcdonald is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

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32
tracked stances
20
themes
0
side flips
2026-06-11
last heard
Returns  90d +3.6% (n=24) · 180d +9.9% (n=24) · 1y +37.1% (n=24)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
ENERGY33 bullish2026-06-11
SPX33 bearish2026-06-11
Big Tech22 bearish2026-06-11
GOLD22 bullish2025-04-02
SLB22 bullish2026-06-11
WFRD22 bullish2025-04-04

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-06-11 AEM bullish Macro Voices · video
Agnico Eagle is at historically cheap 5.9x EV/EBITDA with $6-7B free cash flow and a $2B buyback while already down 40%, driven by a hot-money tourist flush that created forced selling by EM central banks needing liquidity during the energy shock
“when you're already down 40%, it's pricing in a lot of pain, but your valuation is the cheapest of all time”
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 2S30S YIELD CURVE STEEPENER bullish Macro Voices · video
The Fed cannot credibly hike with $1.1T in annual interest payments on the debt (vs $300B when they last hiked), so the market's pricing of rate hikes and the resulting curve flattening is wrong and will reverse into a steep steepening
“the muscle memory in the market thinks the Fed's going to hike — to me it's a mirage, they really can't hike that much”
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 ENERGY bullish Macro Voices · video
Rotation from overvalued financial assets (NASDAQ 100 at all-time-high CAPE) into energy equities with historically cheap free cash flow yields is a replay of 2022 where energy was up over 100% during the prior inflation shock
“the free cash flow yields in the energy space are so cheap ... probably the cheapest part of the market”
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 MATERIALS SECTOR bullish Macro Voices · video
Materials stocks control hard assets and historically outperformed dramatically in the 2022 inflation shock regime, and the same macro backdrop (sticky inflation, supply chain stress, Hormuz closure) is now repeating
“in 2022 energy stocks were up well over 100% ... materials the same thing's going to play out again”
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 SPX bearish Macro Voices · video
Massive tech IPO capital raises ($200-250B immediate plus $3T lockup overhang) will drain liquidity from large-cap S&P names while small-caps benefit from the value rotation, with the IWM/SPX wedge already breaking out technically
“you'll see a great migration out of the S&P back toward the Russell 2000”
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 ISRG bullish Macro Voices · video
Intuitive Surgical has an unassailable proprietary surgical data moat that positions it as a dominant AI beneficiary over the next decade, similar to Tesla's road data advantage, while the stock is currently unloved and sitting on its 200-day moving average
“if you buy intuitive surgical now on the 200-day moving average, to us that's a really screaming buy”
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 TOU bullish Macro Voices · video
Tourmaline Oil holds trapped Canadian natural gas that hyperscalers are in active discussions to harness for co-located data center power, while the Hormuz closure simultaneously increases the global value of North American LNG as a supply alternative
“taking trap gas and making it available to data centers — Tourmaline's in discussion with hyperscalers right now”
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 Big Tech bearish Macro Voices · video
NASDAQ 100 surged from $30T to $41T in under 50 trading days — the fastest value creation ever — while CFOs are simultaneously dumping equity via convertible bonds and major insiders are selling into SpaceX/Google/Anthropic raises, mirroring Q3-Q4 2021 before…
“the NASDAQ 100 went from 30 to 41 trillion in less than 50 trading days. Nothing like that has ever happened in the history of markets”
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 SLB bullish Macro Voices · video
Oil services companies like SLB control hard assets and own proprietary data sets that make them one of the most underowned AI beneficiaries, while the broader market is crowded into semiconductors
“the artificial intelligence potential of SLB is literally one of the most exciting trades I can think of”
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-11 IVOL bullish Macro Voices · video
IVOL is a battered way to express the 2s30s yield curve steepener view: the Fed cannot actually hike aggressively with $1.1T annual interest on the debt, so the market's flat-curve pricing of Fed hikes is a mirage that will unwind via steepening
“the IVOL ETF which has been battered ... the Fed really can't hike that much and the curve is going to steepen a lot”
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2025-04-04 WFRD bullish Wealthion · video
Weatherford International has a roughly 14% free cash flow yield ($550M FCF on $3.8B market cap) and is buying back 15% of public equity, offering deep value in oil services
“free cash flow yield of 550 million on a 3.8 billion market cap. They're buying back like 15% of the public equity”
90d +36.7% · 180d +76.9% · 1y +141.4%
Larry McDonald: Investors Fleeing U.S. Markets - Where the Smart Money Is Going | Part II
2025-04-04 PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM bullish Wealthion · video
Platinum and palladium offer hard-asset exposure to the central bank diversification trend without the crowd and premium already embedded in gold's $16T market cap
“things that are in the hard asset community, but not as overcrowded as gold”
Larry McDonald: Investors Fleeing U.S. Markets - Where the Smart Money Is Going | Part II
2025-04-04 SPX bearish Wealthion · video
US recession driven by high interest costs, tariff headwinds, and consumer slowdown will compress earnings and push the S&P 500 down to the 4000-4200 range
“I'm thinking of low fours”
90d -24.1% · 180d -33.1% · 1y -31.9%
Larry McDonald: Investors Fleeing U.S. Markets - Where the Smart Money Is Going | Part II
2025-04-04 long GOLD / long NEM / long AEM basket Wealthion · video
Gold miners Barrick, Newmont, and Agnico Eagle trade at historically low EV/EBITDA multiples with delevered balance sheets while central banks are structurally forced to buy gold to diversify away from sanctions-weaponized treasuries
“their true price to cash flow...still in the very low um percentages historically very rare area”
90d +22.4% · 180d +65.1% · 1y +107.7%
Larry McDonald: Investors Fleeing U.S. Markets - Where the Smart Money Is Going | Part II
2025-04-04 short SPX / long European Equities pair Wealthion · video
Capital is fleeing US markets amid dollar decline and recession risk and rotating into undervalued European equities where fiscal expansion is supportive and valuations are cheaper
“sell the US, get long Europe”
90d -1.4% · 180d -3.4% · 1y +0.5%
Larry McDonald: Investors Fleeing U.S. Markets - Where the Smart Money Is Going | Part II
2025-04-02 Big Tech bearish Wealthion · video
NASDAQ 100 has already shed $4T from $27T to $23T as stagflation pressures compress growth multiples via higher discount rates, and the rotation out of tech into hard assets has further to run
“24 trillion in the NASDAQ 100... that money is moving into gold miners, European equities, global value”
90d -15.0% · 180d -26.0% · 1y -23.5%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 GOLD bullish Wealthion · video
In a stagflationary regime analogous to 1968-81, gold and commodity producers dramatically outperformed; capital rotating out of $24T NASDAQ 100 is already moving into gold miners as a primary destination
“that money is moving into gold miners, European equities, global value”
90d +6.7% · 180d +22.3% · 1y +49.0%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 SPX bearish Wealthion · video
Real S&P 500 earnings are ~$230 not the street's $270 consensus per CFO guidance, and at a stagflation-appropriate 15-18x multiple fair value is 3,500-4,300 vs current ~5,700
“if you throw an 18 multiple on there, the S&P should be at 4,100, not 5600”
90d -9.7% · 180d -18.2% · 1y -17.5%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 OIH bullish Wealthion · video
Oil services ETF captures stagflationary outperformance pattern where oil names rose 60% from 1968-81 while the broad market was flat; Weatherford and Schlumberger show strong earnings power and buybacks
“from 1968 to 81 the market was flat but oil names were up 60%... you can look at the OIH”
90d -11.0% · 180d -0.6% · 1y +52.4%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 Long Dur Treasuries neutral Wealthion · video
TLT has tactical rally room on recession fears but structurally limited upside because rates are on a higher plane than 2010-2020 due to sticky inflation and fiscal irresponsibility
“you can own the TLT here, but you want to be careful”
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 NEM bullish Wealthion · video
Newmont is a core hard-asset holding positioned to benefit from stagflation-driven multiple expansion and capital rotation out of growth stocks into commodity producers with assets in the ground
“your Numods, your barracks, those types of companies”
90d +21.3% · 180d +74.9% · 1y +137.1%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 WFRD bullish Wealthion · video
Weatherford has strong earnings power and is buying back stock; oil services names dramatically outperform in stagflationary regimes where growth stock DCF values collapse under high discount rates
“look at stocks like Weatherford... great earnings power, buying back stocks”
90d -3.5% · 180d +27.4% · 1y +77.8%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 COAL ETFS bullish Wealthion · video
Coal names are very cheap on a valuation basis and, as hard-asset companies, are positioned to outperform in a stagflationary environment where high inflation and rates favor companies with assets in the ground over growth stocks
“you can look at ETFs in the coal space, they're pretty... the coal names are very cheap”
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2025-04-02 long ENERGY / long ENERGY basket Wealthion · video
Exxon and Chevron are deeply undervalued relative to Nvidia — combined market cap is only 29% of Nvidia's — and as capital rotates from growth into hard-asset energy majors over 1-5 years they will reclaim top-10 S&P 500 positions
“combined market cap of Exxon and Chevron this month was only 29% of Nvidia”
90d -8.5% · 180d -2.5% · 1y +30.0%
Larry McDonald: U.S. Debt Crisis Will Break the Market | Investors Fleeing U.S. | Part I
2024-10-26 ENERGY bullish Wealthion · video
The 1968-1981 inflationary multi-polar analog implies portfolio construction needs to rotate toward materials and oil/gas, which comprised ~50% of the S&P then versus only ~12% today, as fiscal overdose, labor union power, and geopolitical tensions sustain…
“you really need to start thinking about a 1968 to 81 portfolio”
90d +3.2% · 180d -6.0% · 1y +2.3%
Market Recap: Gold to $9,000 | Bullish Silver | U.S. Elections Market Impact | Fed Outlook
2024-10-24 URANIUM bullish Wealthion · video
AI data center build-out requires massive new power generation, and the entire uranium sector is only ~$45B market cap—a rounding error vs Nvidia's $3.5T—creating enormous asymmetric upside as institutional capital rotates from the commodity into the mining…
“the entire uranium sector is like 45 billion dollars—it's a joke”
90d -1.9% · 180d -26.7% · 1y +66.5%
Larry McDonald: Inflation, Energy Shocks & The New Economic Paradigm
2024-10-24 AR bullish Wealthion · video
Antero Resources trades at ~10% free cash flow yield with 10-12% share buybacks and a cleaned-up balance sheet, and natural gas price should rise from $2.50 to $5 over 5 years as European demand and data center energy needs absorb the current glut
“Antero of the world AR Equity are going to be a big beneficiary”
90d +47.1% · 180d +18.6% · 1y +18.1%
Larry McDonald: Inflation, Energy Shocks & The New Economic Paradigm
2024-10-24 SILVER bullish Wealthion · video
A fiscal overdose regime ($16T stimulus post-COVID), multi-polar geopolitics, and resurgent inflation are shifting the DJIA/gold ratio from ~16:1 toward historical lows, making precious metals the preferred store of value over financial assets
“you want to be in Silver Platinum Palladium”
90d -8.6% · 180d -3.9% · 1y +43.3%
Larry McDonald: Inflation, Energy Shocks & The New Economic Paradigm
2024-10-24 GOLD bullish Wealthion · video
The gold-miners-to-metal ratio is beginning to break out after years of underperformance, marking early innings of a move that mirrors the broader commodity vs. financial-asset regime shift
“those ratios are starting to break out again—early innings of a move”
90d +0.6% · 180d +23.1% · 1y +49.3%
Larry McDonald: Inflation, Energy Shocks & The New Economic Paradigm
2024-10-24 SLB bullish Wealthion · video
Oil services companies benefit from a Trump 'drill baby drill' deregulatory cycle and an oil price recovery from seasonal lows, with SLB offering a technically attractive entry near its 200-week moving average
“you can buy Slumber around the 200-week moving average—that's a really interesting place”
90d +1.6% · 180d -15.0% · 1y -10.5%
Larry McDonald: Inflation, Energy Shocks & The New Economic Paradigm
2024-10-24 ENERGY bullish Wealthion · video
Tax-loss selling has pushed OXY below the price at which Buffett made his most recent purchase of 80 million shares, creating a Buffett-floor entry in an oil price recovery setup
“you can buy Occidental below where Buffett bought his last 80 million shares”
90d +3.1% · 180d -7.9% · 1y +1.3%
Larry McDonald: Inflation, Energy Shocks & The New Economic Paradigm
2024-10-24 long Commodities Broad / short SPX ratio Wealthion · video
The Dow/Gold ratio at ~16:1 is historically extreme and should compress toward 5-8:1 as sustained inflation and fiscal crisis erode financial assets while hard-asset companies with large commodity reserves outperform
“that should in the 80s reach almost one to one—we're not going to get there but 8 to 1, 5 to 1”
90d -0.6% · 180d +3.7% · 1y -6.0%
Larry McDonald: Inflation, Energy Shocks & The New Economic Paradigm

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