Investors / stance tracking
What Luke Gromen is saying
Macro strategist — founder, FFTT
161 dated public stances tracked since 2022-11-09, most recently 2026-08-29. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Luke Gromen's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Luke Gromen is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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161
tracked stances
37
themes
8
side flips
2026-08-29
last heard
Returns 90d +1.0% (n=116) · 180d +1.3% (n=115) · 1y +12.4% (n=49)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
SPX — bearish2026-08-14 → bullish2026-08-20
BITCOIN — bearish2026-03-04 → bullish2026-08-14
SPX — bullish2025-12-30 → bearish2026-06-11
BITCOIN — bullish2025-11-26 → bearish2025-12-11
Big Tech — bullish2024-05-24 → bearish2025-10-22
SPX — bearish2022-11-09 → bullish2025-05-14
Big Tech — bearish2024-04-17 → bullish2024-05-24
USD — bullish2022-11-09 → bearish2023-02-18
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 27 | 27 bullish | 2026-08-29 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 16 | 16 bearish | 2026-08-24 | |
| USD | 15 | 1 bullish / 14 bearish | 2026-08-24 | |
| BITCOIN | 12 | 8 bullish / 4 bearish | 2026-08-14 | |
| SPX | 9 | 5 bullish / 4 bearish | 2026-08-20 | |
| SILVER | 8 | 8 bullish | 2026-08-20 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-08-29
GOLD
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
With both the yen and dollar carry trades creating a trap where either currency strengthening triggers a global financial crisis, gold is the only neutral reserve asset with no country's liability that can replace the dollar's global reserve role, and…
“what currency is going to replace the globocoin euro dollar system? Simple. It's gold. And I think it's going to go a lot higher.”
"How Many Ounces Of Silver Are You HOLDING?": Luke Gromen
2026-08-24
GOLD
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
Central banks have been replacing US Treasuries with gold for 12 years as dollar weaponization accelerates de-dollarization, and gold is the only neutral reserve asset that can replace the Euro-dollar system as neither the yen nor dollar can strengthen…
“gold's the only way out for them and you know gold since ends I don't know up 3x 4x something like that”
TRUMP KILLED THE U.S. DOLLAR, CENTRAL BANKS DUMPING BONDS — w/ Luke Gromen
2026-08-24
USD
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
Every time 10-year Treasury yields reach 4.7% the Treasury secretary intervenes to weaken the dollar without fail, and structurally the dollar's dual role as national currency and global reserve coin must end as the US reshores from China and the Euro-dollar…
“every single time 10-year Treasury yields hit 4.7% the Treasury secretary...intervened to weaken the dollar one way or another without fail like clockwork”
TRUMP KILLED THE U.S. DOLLAR, CENTRAL BANKS DUMPING BONDS — w/ Luke Gromen
2026-08-24
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
Reshoring is structurally inflationary while soft yield curve control (Treasury buybacks, TGA drawdown) caps nominal yields, destroying real returns for bond holders after a 40-year bull run
“It's not great if you're a bond holder. You had 40-year bull run”
TRUMP KILLED THE U.S. DOLLAR, CENTRAL BANKS DUMPING BONDS — w/ Luke Gromen
2026-08-20
GOLD
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
US fiscal math—entitlements, interest, and veterans benefits at 105% of receipts, growing 7.5%/yr against 4% receipt growth—forces permanent yield curve control and deeply negative real rates as the only exit, eroding bond holders in real terms while gold…
“if it goes into a debt spiral, you want to own gold. And if they inject liquidity to stop it, you want to own gold”
Why U.S. Treasury’s Bond Market Intervention Is Just The Beginning | Luke Gromen
2026-08-20
SPX
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
In an environment of Bessent-driven yield curve control, Treasury buybacks, and inflationary monetary expansion, nominal US equity prices will rise in dollar terms—analogous to Argentine stocks in peso terms—as nominal GDP surges and corporate earnings…
“Shorting American stocks in dollar terms is not a good idea. Shorting them in gold has been a great idea”
Why U.S. Treasury’s Bond Market Intervention Is Just The Beginning | Luke Gromen
2026-08-20
INDUSTRIALS
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
Hamiltonian economics-driven reshoring and US grid buildout create structural demand for industrial companies; private manufacturing construction spending is currently down 18% YoY, meaning the actual boom hasn't started yet—when it does, wages, inflation…
“I want to own industrials... you cannot build a grid with dollar swap lines”
Why U.S. Treasury’s Bond Market Intervention Is Just The Beginning | Luke Gromen
2026-08-20
SILVER
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
Silver benefits from both monetary debasement (like gold) and surging physical demand from US grid buildout and reshoring; you cannot substitute physical metals with financial instruments when building energy self-sufficiency
“I like silver. I like copper... you cannot build a grid with dollar swap lines”
Why U.S. Treasury’s Bond Market Intervention Is Just The Beginning | Luke Gromen
2026-08-20
COPPER
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
Copper at ~$7/lb is essential for US grid buildout and reshoring; with private manufacturing construction spending down 18% YoY the demand surge hasn't started yet, and the US can't achieve energy and military self-sufficiency without massively scaling copper…
“copper quietly like is what like almost seven bucks right... you cannot build a grid with dollar swap lines”
Why U.S. Treasury’s Bond Market Intervention Is Just The Beginning | Luke Gromen
2026-08-20
IRON ORE / STEEL
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
US reshoring and grid buildout require massive physical steel and iron ore inputs that cannot be financed away with dollar swap lines; structural demand will accelerate as the US moves from 20 years of flat electricity generation toward genuine energy…
“I like iron ore steel all these... you cannot build a grid with dollar swap lines”
Why U.S. Treasury’s Bond Market Intervention Is Just The Beginning | Luke Gromen
2026-08-20
short Long Dur Treasuries / long GOLD
ratio
Luke Gromen · video
TLT has already lost 90–95% against gold since 2014 as Treasury and the Fed have been forced toward yield curve control and real-rate suppression; the identical dynamic has another 90–95% run remaining—driven almost entirely by gold rising rather than bonds…
“TLT is down 90 or 95%... I think it's got another 90 to 95% to go against gold”
Why U.S. Treasury’s Bond Market Intervention Is Just The Beginning | Luke Gromen
2026-08-20
long GOLD / short SPX
ratio
Luke Gromen · video
S&P 500 is already down ~30% against gold since 2022 and ~50% since 2000; as gold re-integrates into the monetary system as the largest FX reserve component and AI-era equity valuations reach extreme levels, gold is set to continue outperforming equities on a…
“S&P total return in a very good market, it's down almost 30% against gold. Since 2000, it's down 50% against gold still”
Why U.S. Treasury’s Bond Market Intervention Is Just The Beginning | Luke Gromen
2026-08-14
GRID
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
US grid generation in 2023 was identical to 2004 despite soaring nominal GDP; that two-decade stagnation is reversing as AI demand and industrial reshoring require massive new electricity capacity, creating sustained multi-year demand for grid infrastructure…
“I've been recommending for clients for last 3-plus years, probably close to 4 years now, the GRID and PAVE ETFs”
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
2026-08-14
SILVER
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
Reversing 20 years of US electricity generation stagnation requires aluminum, stainless steel, copper, and silver in volume, with demand compounding from both AI buildout and industrial reshoring simultaneously
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
2026-08-14
USD
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
Hamiltonian economics explicitly requires a weaker dollar to make US manufacturing competitive, and Bessant has already intervened in currency markets to prevent yields from rising above ~4.7%, a practice that will continue and structurally debase the currency
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
2026-08-14
GOLD
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
Hamiltonian economics requires dollar debasement to service 120% debt-to-GDP while holding rates below 4.7%, making real rates secularly negative for 5-10 years, and gold is the only asset that prices true inflation in a multipolar world where China is a…
“I think 5 to 10% everyone should have in physical gold and I would just replace your duration with physical gold”
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
2026-08-14
PAVE
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
Infrastructure buildout driven by Hamiltonian reshoring policy and the end of 20-year US electricity generation stagnation creates durable demand for the industrial and infrastructure companies in this ETF
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
2026-08-14
Japan Equities
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
Reshoring requires partners who 'make the machines to make the machines' and China is excluded on national security grounds, making Japan the critical manufacturing ally; combined with the fact that US equities are 70% of global market cap and excess returns…
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
2026-08-14
AI MEGA-CAP TECH / LARGE-CAP AI INFRASTRUCTURE
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
Chinese AI competitors are rapidly closing the performance gap while offering dramatically lower prices (open-router share rising from 3% to 45-50% in 18 months), and companies trading at 10-40x sales cannot sustain those valuations once 'cheaper and good…
“the second mouse gets the cheese — some of them aren't going to be here to enjoy the fruits of their labor”
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
2026-08-14
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
Fiscal dominance (120% debt-to-GDP, deficits growing faster than receipts) means real rates must eventually reach -12% to stabilize debt ratios, repeating the 1946-1951 playbook where long-bond holders were wiped out in real terms
“long-term bonds are certificates of confiscation”
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
2026-08-14
COPPER
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
Copper sits at the intersection of three converging forces — secular inflation from Hamiltonian reshoring, massive US electrical infrastructure buildout after 20 years of flat generation, and the commodity supercycle — while most investors are still playing…
“copper's right at the intersection of that — inflation, infrastructure, and people just still aren't really there”
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
2026-08-14
SPX
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
US equities at ~70% of global market cap echoes Japan at 50-60% in 1989; countries that still manufacture (Germany, Poland, Hungary) benefit from Hamiltonian reshoring demand while the US consensus overweight creates a valuation and concentration risk
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
2026-08-14
BITCOIN
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
Same structural debasement trade as gold — negative real rates, fiscal dominance, and dollar weakening under Hamiltonian economics benefit hard assets including Bitcoin
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
2026-08-14
long ETN / long PH / long DHR / long ITW
basket
Luke Gromen · video
US industrial companies providing grid equipment and automation sit at the center of the Hamiltonian reshoring trend and will see demand pull and pricing power as the US reverses 20 years of stagnant grid capacity
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
2026-08-14
long GOLD / long SPX
ratio
Luke Gromen · video
In dollar terms stocks will soar over the next 5-10 years under negative real rates, but in gold terms stocks are already down 25% since 2022 and will continue losing, so the optimal expression is long gold relative to equities to capture real purchasing…
“S&P's up 50% in dollar terms, it's down 25% in gold terms”
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
2026-08-03
GOLD
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
China is systematically replacing US Treasuries with gold as the global reserve asset by setting up offshore yuan-clearing hubs at every major gold trading center, channeling trade surpluses into gold at accelerating pace (173 tons imported last month, the…
“I think gold's going to continue going higher over time. I think it's going to go way higher than the 5,400 record”
Equities Extremely Complacent; De-lever and Prepare to Buy The Dip
2026-08-03
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
Patient foreign creditor base has been gone since 2014, replaced by leveraged hedge funds running the basis trade who are forced to sell Treasuries when equity volatility spikes, causing yields to rise rather than fall in risk-off events; secular deficits…
“Don't own long-term bonds and own equities instead”
Equities Extremely Complacent; De-lever and Prepare to Buy The Dip
2026-08-03
SPX
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
Big tech and AI have become highly debt-financed and are valued at extremes in the largest equity market in the world precisely as underlying borrowing costs keep rising; any sovereign bond dislocation will trigger simultaneous equity and bond selling as…
“In the very short run, I think they're extremely complacent”
Equities Extremely Complacent; De-lever and Prepare to Buy The Dip
2026-08-03
INDUSTRIALS
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
US reshoring requires large-scale industrial manufacturing capacity that can only realistically come from Japan by elimination — China is excluded on national security grounds, Germany is being beaten by Chinese competition, and Korea's market is concentrated…
“the Japanese industrial companies are going to have to make a ton of money reshoring the US”
Equities Extremely Complacent; De-lever and Prepare to Buy The Dip
2026-08-03
US ELECTRICAL INFRASTRUCTURE EQUITIES
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
America has not grown its electric grid in 20 years while reshoring and AI data center buildout both require massive new electricity supply, creating a structural demand surge for grid infrastructure
“as a country we have not grown our electric grid in 20 years. It's astonishing”
The Fed Can’t Let the AI Bubble Burst | Luke Gromen
2026-08-03
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
Hamiltonian economics (reshoring, tariffs, capital controls) is inherently inflationary and will destroy the real value of long bonds, which will also be pressured by widening deficits if any recession hits
“you can't be anywhere near long-term bonds. They're going to get destroyed on a real basis”
The Fed Can’t Let the AI Bubble Burst | Luke Gromen
2026-08-03
US AI / MEGA-CAP TECH COMPANIES
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
AI companies are debt-financed and priced as if no competition can exist, but Chinese models (e.g. Kimi K3) prove the debate is real, and when the rate of valuation growth slows the sector will derate violently like real estate rather than gently like equities
“this is an issue in a sector that's valued like it can't have issues, will never have issues”
The Fed Can’t Let the AI Bubble Burst | Luke Gromen
2026-08-03
INDUSTRIALS
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
US cannot reshore fast enough given 45 years of deindustrialization, so Japan captures a large share of the manufacturing demand that America wants to reclaim
“We're not going to reshore fast enough... guess who's going to get a lot of that business? Japan”
The Fed Can’t Let the AI Bubble Burst | Luke Gromen
2026-08-03
long PAVE / long GRID
basket
Luke Gromen · video
US electricity generation was flat from 2004–2024 despite massive nominal GDP growth, and must now reverse rapidly to support AI data centers and industrial reshoring; PAVE and GRID ETFs capture the picks-and-shovels beneficiaries of this structural grid…
“ETFs like the PAVE, GRID... essentially set to be the people selling picks and shovels to the mining boom that is reshoring the US”
Equities Extremely Complacent; De-lever and Prepare to Buy The Dip
2026-08-03
long GOLD / long BITCOIN
basket
Luke Gromen · video
US fiscal dominance is unfixable without significant currency devaluation across all fiat, making energy-linked neutral reserve assets (gold and Bitcoin) the primary long-term hedge
“I want my currency to have an energy tie”
The Fed Can’t Let the AI Bubble Burst | Luke Gromen
2026-08-01
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
Cayman Islands hedge funds running leveraged basis trades have absorbed ~40% of net Treasury note/bond issuance since 2022; when volatility spikes they degross their entire book and dump Treasuries, meaning long yields paradoxically rise during risk-off, and…
“that's why in the short run, long yields go up on risk off now. You got very fickle creditors”
"We Are In Deep Trouble..." - Luke Gromen Gold Silver
2026-08-01
Big Tech
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
Tech is vulnerable from multiple directions simultaneously: any Fed rate hike risks kicking the legs out from under AI-driven valuations, and Bitcoin's persistent Nasdaq correlation means a sustained tech drawdown is the likely mechanism that gives the Fed…
“I'm very nervous about anything tech related. I don't like the setup there”
"We Are In Deep Trouble..." - Luke Gromen Gold Silver
2026-08-01
GOLD
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
China is systematically drawing down London and New York physical gold vaults to defend the yuan, and US fiscal unsustainability will ultimately force yield curve control and dollar devaluation, making gold the monetary reference point that outperforms…
“gold is now the reference point to sort of everything in my view”
"We Are In Deep Trouble..." - Luke Gromen Gold Silver
2026-08-01
SILVER
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
China's structural precious metals accumulation extends beyond gold to silver as a secondary monetary metal in the same yuan-defense and reserve-diversification strategy
“they're going to keep buying gold. Because there is no mystery how this is going to go and probably silver too, by the way”
"We Are In Deep Trouble..." - Luke Gromen Gold Silver
2026-08-01
USTS
neutral
Luke Gromen · video
With equity valuations at extreme CAPE multiples and multiple simultaneous tail risks (Japanese bonds, UK bonds, geopolitical events), holding T-bills preserves capital and liquidity to redeploy when structural dislocations create deep value
“nearly 60% in cash T-bills and gold bullion. Cuz I don't know”
"We Are In Deep Trouble..." - Luke Gromen Gold Silver
2026-08-01
long GOLD / long SPX
ratio
Luke Gromen · video
S&P 500 rises in nominal dollar terms (~7,000 to ~11,000) but falls sharply in gold terms as China's gold accumulation and US fiscal deterioration cause gold to massively outperform equities in real purchasing-power terms
“S&P is going to be up big in dollar terms. I think it's going to be down in gold terms”
"We Are In Deep Trouble..." - Luke Gromen Gold Silver
2026-07-23
USTS
bearish
Macro Voices · video
Japan, Germany, Korea, UK, and US—historically creditor nations—are simultaneously turning borrowers for defense stimulus into an already inflationary war environment, pushing yields higher across all Western markets until yield curve control is forced
“sell bonds, sell bonds, sell bonds”
MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns
2026-07-23
INDUSTRIALS
bullish
Macro Voices · video
US reshoring and allied defense buildout require Japanese industrial capacity because China is excluded and the US waited too long to rebuild its own manufacturing base, yet Japanese industrials have underperformed AI headline stocks leaving the move still…
“I think Japanese industrial equities also do very well”
MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns
2026-07-23
PAVE
bullish
Macro Voices · video
The US has barely added electrical capacity in 20 years and is now facing severe bottlenecks, giving generation-agnostic infrastructure suppliers 3-5 years of open-field revenue growth as the buildout begins
“I still really like US electrical infrastructure equities”
MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns
2026-07-23
GOLD
owns
Macro Voices · video
Prolonged war is always inflationary and is forcing Western bond markets toward eventual yield curve control and financial repression, while simultaneously accelerating yuan trade-settlement volumes and demand for gold as the neutral reserve asset in a…
“for me it's too hard just buy gold... I'll just own gold”
MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns
2026-07-23
long GOLD / short OIL
ratio
Macro Voices · video
Gold is the superior expression of the energy-disruption thesis versus oil because China can politically suppress oil prices while the same inflationary forces that would drive oil also drive gold—but with far less event-driven volatility and no geopolitical…
“ultimately I think gold's going way higher relative to oil”
MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns
2026-06-11
SPX
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
The adjusted Warren Buffett metric (total equity market cap minus federal debt, divided by GDP) is at its highest level in 65 years — surpassing both 1Q 2000 and 4Q 2021 peaks — while bond yields are breaking out globally due to the Iran war, creating a…
“both of which times were terrible times to own stocks”
Warsh Must Choose The Dollar Or The Bond Market | Luke Gromen
2026-06-11
USTS
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Global bond yields are breaking out in every major market except China as the Iran war drives oil and inflation higher, pushing front-end rates up on a US fiscal deficit already running at 6% of 122% debt-to-GDP and risking a self-reinforcing debt spiral as…
“it's bad for bonds... global bond yields breaking out”
Warsh Must Choose The Dollar Or The Bond Market | Luke Gromen
2026-03-11
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
video
Foreign investors are mechanically forced to sell US Treasuries to raise dollars to finance energy imports as the Strait of Hormuz closure pushes oil higher, structurally driving 10-year yields upward against consensus
“I think they're going to keep going higher”
90d +1.2% · 180d +3.5%
2026-03-11
GOLD
bullish
video
Gold miners are still priced as if gold reverts to much lower levels despite gold being headed significantly higher, creating a valuation gap that should close as the bull market matures
“miners are still priced like that's going back to some much much lower price of gold”
90d -17.9% · 180d -16.1%
2026-03-11
US ELECTRICAL INFRASTRUCTURE EQUITIES
bullish
video
The US grid has produced marginally more electricity than it did 20 years ago while China added a full US-grid equivalent in 4 years; AI buildout and reshoring make massive US grid investment unavoidable with cost-plus economics meaning no budget pushback
“it bodes very well for people in the electrical infrastructure space”
2026-03-11
OIL
bullish
video
Strait of Hormuz closure has removed roughly 20% of global oil supply, and the US SPR is already materially depleted from the 2022 release; emergency drawdowns buy weeks of time at most, not a structural fix, so oil stays bid until the Strait reopens
“oil's still a buy here unless they get the Strait of Hormuz reopened”
90d +21.5% · 180d +35.2%
2026-03-10
GOLD
owns
Luke Gromen · video
Gold heading to $15,000-$45,000 provides massive operating leverage to miners, though nationalization risk is a real tail risk in a world where 'the rules are there are no rules'
“I like gold miners. They have an overweight position there. Pretty overweight position. I have for five years.”
90d -16.9% · 180d -16.4%
Luke Gromen Debut On Goldfinger Capital: Iran & AI Only Accelerate The US Debt Death Spiral
2026-03-10
OIL
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
Strait of Hormuz closure is far more durable than consensus believes due to exhausted US/Israeli interceptor stocks and Iran holding back 50%+ of its best missiles, keeping far more oil offline than the 1973 crisis for an extended period
“sold to you…NASDAQ's rallied back. Sold to you. Great.”
90d +27.7% · 180d +37.9%
Luke Gromen Debut On Goldfinger Capital: Iran & AI Only Accelerate The US Debt Death Spiral
2026-03-10
SILVER
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
Silver has monetary upside from the sovereign debt crisis but gold-to-silver ratio likely finishes the cycle higher because industrial silver demand at very high prices would become economically destructive, capping silver's relative outperformance
“I think silver's going higher…but I think the gold-to-silver ratio…I think gold is where the action's at.”
90d -23.1% · 180d -25.9%
Luke Gromen Debut On Goldfinger Capital: Iran & AI Only Accelerate The US Debt Death Spiral
2026-03-10
USTS
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
JGBs already traded like an emerging-market asset in H2 last year with yields rising while the yen fell, signaling the early stages of a debt spiral that the Iran conflict and oil shock will accelerate
“rising rates and a falling currency—that's a debt spiral. That's your early stages.”
90d +2.1% · 180d +2.5%
Luke Gromen Debut On Goldfinger Capital: Iran & AI Only Accelerate The US Debt Death Spiral
2026-03-10
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
Escalating war spending, oil-driven inflation, and a deficit already near the point where interest plus entitlements exceed receipts make long bonds structurally unattractive despite near-term recession bids
“Trump out yesterday, hey maybe I'll raise defense spending to a trillion and a half…who wants to own long bonds? Sold to you.”
90d +3.0% · 180d +4.7%
Luke Gromen Debut On Goldfinger Capital: Iran & AI Only Accelerate The US Debt Death Spiral
2026-03-10
INDUSTRIALS
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
Wartime footing and reshoring mandate massive capital deployment into electrical infrastructure and industrial base regardless of strategic outcome — these companies collect the spending whether or not the policy succeeds
“I want to own the industrials that are getting paid on it. I want to own electrical infrastructure.”
90d +2.4% · 180d +3.1%
Luke Gromen Debut On Goldfinger Capital: Iran & AI Only Accelerate The US Debt Death Spiral
2026-03-04
GOLD
owns
Luke Gromen · video
Sovereign debt is mathematically unrepayable in real terms so governments will print money to service obligations, debasing currency; the historical inverse relationship between US real rates and gold broke in 2023, signaling a structural regime shift, and…
“cash and gold alone, I'm probably over 50% of my liquid net worth now”
90d -12.7% · 180d -13.4%
The Economy is About to Collapse | Luke Gromen
2026-03-04
CASH
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
In a highly leveraged system facing an AI-driven deflationary shock plus sovereign debt crisis, holding cash preserves optionality to deploy into cheap assets during the expected brief but severe whoosh-down before governments inevitably print
“I think financially it makes sense to be overweight cash and gold right now”
90d +0.9% · 180d +1.8%
The Economy is About to Collapse | Luke Gromen
Showing the 60 most recent of 161 tracked stances.
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