Investors / stance tracking
What Luke Gromen is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowMacro strategist — founder, FFTT
120 dated public stances tracked since 2022-11-09, most recently 2026-10-17. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Luke Gromen's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Luke Gromen is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
120
tracked stances
43
themes
8
side flips
2026-10-17
last heard
Returns 90d +1.3% 54% correct · 79 calls · 180d +2.6% 55% correct · 66 calls · 1y +8.7% 59% correct · 44 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | long GOLD / long BITCOIN | basket | +10.3% | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | long PAVE / long GRID | basket | -7.5% | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | long GOLD / long SPX | ratio | -2.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | SILVER | bullish | -15.0% | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -0.4% | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | Big Tech | bearish | +1.3% | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | long GOLD / short OIL | ratio | -6.3% | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | long GOLD / short OIL | ratio | -6.3% | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | PAVE | bullish | -7.6% | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | INDUSTRIALS | bullish | -7.2% | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | GOLD | owns | +2.0% | — | — |
| 2026-06-11 | USTS | bearish | +1.6% | — | — |
| 2026-06-11 | SPX | bearish | -3.6% | — | — |
| 2026-04-16 | long GOLD / short Long Dur Treasuries | pair | -7.1% | -3.1% | — |
| 2026-04-16 | long GOLD / short Long Dur Treasuries | pair | -7.1% | -3.1% | — |
| 2026-04-16 | GOLD | bullish | -15.4% | -13.3% | — |
| 2026-03-10 | OIL | bullish | +27.7% | +37.9% | — |
| 2026-03-10 | INDUSTRIALS | bullish | +2.4% | +3.1% | — |
| 2026-03-04 | long GOLD / long CASH / long BLUE-CHIP DIVIDEND EQUITIES / long PRODUCTIVE REAL ESTATE | basket | -5.9% | -5.8% | — |
| 2026-02-11 | USD | bearish | -2.3% | -4.9% | — |
| 2026-02-11 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +2.4% | +4.7% | — |
| 2026-01-20 | URANIUM | bullish | +3.6% | -28.5% | — |
| 2026-01-14 | long GOLD / short BITCOIN | ratio | +14.0% | +11.0% | — |
| 2026-01-14 | USTS | bearish | -0.2% | +1.4% | — |
| 2026-01-14 | GOLD | bullish | +4.5% | -13.8% | — |
| 2026-01-14 | CASH | owns | +0.9% | +1.7% | — |
| 2025-12-11 | long PAVE / short SOXX | pair | -1.9% | -31.7% | — |
| 2025-12-11 | SILVER | bullish | +35.2% | +2.4% | — |
| 2025-12-11 | BITCOIN | bearish | +24.2% | +33.3% | — |
| 2025-11-26 | long Investment Grade Credit / short Long Dur Treasuries | pair | +0.3% | +1.7% | — |
| 2025-11-26 | SPX | bullish | +1.4% | +11.1% | — |
| 2025-11-19 | long GOLD / short BITCOIN | pair | +22.9% | +13.7% | — |
| 2025-11-19 | Private Credit | bearish | -1.2% | -0.8% | — |
| 2025-11-03 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +2.5% | +3.2% | — |
| 2025-11-03 | INDUSTRIALS | bullish | +8.9% | +11.4% | — |
| 2025-10-22 | long BITCOIN / short Big Tech | pair | -9.2% | -18.3% | -20.7% |
| 2025-10-22 | USD | bearish | -0.9% | -1.3% | -7.1% |
| 2025-10-22 | High Yield | bearish | -1.7% | -2.8% | -1.3% |
| 2025-10-22 | DEFENSE | bearish | -13.0% | -10.2% | +2.6% |
| 2025-10-22 | Big Tech | bearish | -0.6% | -7.1% | -16.9% |
Showing the 40 most recent of 79 scored calls.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Big Tech — bullish2024-05-24 → bearish2025-10-22
Big Tech — bearish2024-04-17 → bullish2024-05-24
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 10 | 10 bullish | 2026-07-23 | |
| USD | 9 | 1 bullish / 8 bearish | 2026-08-14 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 8 | 8 bearish | 2026-08-01 | |
| BITCOIN | 6 | 5 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-08-14 | |
| SPX | 5 | 3 bullish / 2 bearish | 2026-08-20 | |
| Big Tech | 4 | 1 bullish / 3 bearish | 2026-08-01 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-17
short SPX / long GOLD
ratio
Luke Gromen · video
Expressing bearish equity views in dollar terms is permanently broken because the Fed will always print to rescue the Treasury market, bailing out dollar-denominated shorts; the S&P is already down 40% in gold terms since 2000 and 25% since 2022, proving gold…
“If Michael Burry would have shorted the S&P in gold terms, he'd be up 40%. But he shorted it in dollars.”
Can Gold Save Bonds If The Fed Fails? Luke Gromen Details His Solution!
2026-10-13
long Investment Grade Credit / short USTS
spread
Luke Gromen · video
High-grade corporates offer a coupon plus spread within a real capital stack, while US Treasuries are backed only by receipts the government will be forced to print to meet; corporates may trade through sovereign yields as fiscal monetization erodes sovereign…
“I wouldn't be surprised if at some point in the cycle high-grade corporates trade through Treasuries”
Luke Gromen: They'll Save the Bonds and Sacrifice the Dollar.
2026-10-13
long GOLD / long SPX
ratio
Luke Gromen · video
Equities will rise in nominal dollar terms as the Fed monetizes deficits, but will continue to fall in gold terms because liquidity creation debases the measuring unit; Nasdaq is still -40% vs gold since 2000 and S&P is still -20% vs gold since the 2021…
“S&P's up huge... but it's still down almost 20% in gold terms despite clipping coupons and dividends”
Luke Gromen: They'll Save the Bonds and Sacrifice the Dollar.
2026-10-08
long GOLD / long SILVER / long BITCOIN
basket
Luke Gromen · video
The US must inflate away debt via significantly negative real rates, making gold/silver/Bitcoin a superior expression of bond bearishness versus directly shorting bonds in a policy-driven market
“you want to be short bonds, don't short bonds. Buy gold, buy silver, buy a little Bitcoin”
Does the Administration believe they can inflate US debt to sustainability?
2026-09-25
long GOLD / long GOLD
ratio
Luke Gromen · video
Gold bullion will outperform gold miners over this full cycle because miners face tail risks bullion does not — diesel/energy rationing compressing margins and the rising probability of government windfall-tax regimes that would cap miner upside while leaving…
“My primary expression is by far with gold bullion, not with gold miners”
"It's Going To Get WORSE..." - Luke Gromen
2026-09-13
ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE EQUITIES
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
US electricity generation capacity was flat for 20 years (2004–2024) while AI-driven hyperscaler capex is creating explosive new demand, and the sector is still in very early innings of re-rating
“I prefer shares of electric infrastructure, partly because we went 20 years without growth in electricity production”
Luke Gromen & Darius Dale: Which Inning Are We In?
2026-08-20
short Long Dur Treasuries / long GOLD
ratio
Luke Gromen · video
TLT has already lost 90–95% against gold since 2014 as Treasury and the Fed have been forced toward yield curve control and real-rate suppression; the identical dynamic has another 90–95% run remaining—driven almost entirely by gold rising rather than bonds…
“TLT is down 90 or 95%... I think it's got another 90 to 95% to go against gold”
Why U.S. Treasury’s Bond Market Intervention Is Just The Beginning | Luke Gromen
2026-08-20
long GOLD / short SPX
ratio
Luke Gromen · video
S&P 500 is already down ~30% against gold since 2022 and ~50% since 2000; as gold re-integrates into the monetary system as the largest FX reserve component and AI-era equity valuations reach extreme levels, gold is set to continue outperforming equities on a…
“S&P total return in a very good market, it's down almost 30% against gold. Since 2000, it's down 50% against gold still”
Why U.S. Treasury’s Bond Market Intervention Is Just The Beginning | Luke Gromen
2026-08-20
long GOLD / short Big Tech
ratio
Luke Gromen · video
Fiscal math requires perpetually negative real rates to keep debt serviceable, so stocks must rise 15%+ per year in dollar terms but will fall 5–8% per year in gold terms — a regime already confirmed by Nasdaq being down ~20% in gold since early 2022 and set…
“stocks go up 15-plus percent per year in dollars, and they go down probably five to eight percent per year in gold”
Gold Is Going to $7,800, And the Fiscal Math Explains Why | Luke Gromen
SPR drawdown is masking underlying supply tightness visible in crack spreads; oil has tracked 10-year Treasury yields 1:1 since Japan lifted YCC in July 2023, giving Bessent incentive to suppress oil to cap yields; China retains the option to buy oil…
“I think oil should be higher”
Gold Is Going to $7,800, And the Fiscal Math Explains Why | Luke Gromen
In an environment of Bessent-driven yield curve control, Treasury buybacks, and inflationary monetary expansion, nominal US equity prices will rise in dollar terms—analogous to Argentine stocks in peso terms—as nominal GDP surges and corporate earnings…
“Shorting American stocks in dollar terms is not a good idea. Shorting them in gold has been a great idea”
Why U.S. Treasury’s Bond Market Intervention Is Just The Beginning | Luke Gromen
2026-08-20
IRON ORE / STEEL
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
US reshoring and grid buildout require massive physical steel and iron ore inputs that cannot be financed away with dollar swap lines; structural demand will accelerate as the US moves from 20 years of flat electricity generation toward genuine energy…
“I like iron ore steel all these... you cannot build a grid with dollar swap lines”
Why U.S. Treasury’s Bond Market Intervention Is Just The Beginning | Luke Gromen
2026-08-20
Ai Infra
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
Chinese AI models surged from ~3% to nearly 50% of American company AI token usage (per OpenRouter) in roughly five quarters, undermining the economic model behind $1T+ in debt, lease commitments, and take-or-pay semiconductor obligations at valuations of…
“I think the easy part's over. I think we're in the inhumane volatility part. It gets much more discretionary around winners and losers”
Gold Is Going to $7,800, And the Fiscal Math Explains Why | Luke Gromen
2026-08-14
long ETN / long PH / long DHR / long ITW
basket
Luke Gromen · video
US industrial companies providing grid equipment and automation sit at the center of the Hamiltonian reshoring trend and will see demand pull and pricing power as the US reverses 20 years of stagnant grid capacity
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
2026-08-14
long GOLD / long SPX
ratio
Luke Gromen · video
In dollar terms stocks will soar over the next 5-10 years under negative real rates, but in gold terms stocks are already down 25% since 2022 and will continue losing, so the optimal expression is long gold relative to equities to capture real purchasing…
“S&P's up 50% in dollar terms, it's down 25% in gold terms”
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
Hamiltonian economics explicitly requires a weaker dollar to make US manufacturing competitive, and Bessant has already intervened in currency markets to prevent yields from rising above ~4.7%, a practice that will continue and structurally debase the currency
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
Said again: 2026-08-24 (Luke Gromen), 2026-09-13 (Luke Gromen), 2026-10-13 (Luke Gromen)
Same structural debasement trade as gold — negative real rates, fiscal dominance, and dollar weakening under Hamiltonian economics benefit hard assets including Bitcoin
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
Said again: 2026-09-25 (Luke Gromen)
2026-08-14
GRID
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
US grid generation in 2023 was identical to 2004 despite soaring nominal GDP; that two-decade stagnation is reversing as AI demand and industrial reshoring require massive new electricity capacity, creating sustained multi-year demand for grid infrastructure…
“I've been recommending for clients for last 3-plus years, probably close to 4 years now, the GRID and PAVE ETFs”
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
2026-08-14
Japan Equities
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
Reshoring requires partners who 'make the machines to make the machines' and China is excluded on national security grounds, making Japan the critical manufacturing ally; combined with the fact that US equities are 70% of global market cap and excess returns…
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
2026-08-14
AI MEGA-CAP TECH / LARGE-CAP AI INFRASTRUCTURE
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
Chinese AI competitors are rapidly closing the performance gap while offering dramatically lower prices (open-router share rising from 3% to 45-50% in 18 months), and companies trading at 10-40x sales cannot sustain those valuations once 'cheaper and good…
“the second mouse gets the cheese — some of them aren't going to be here to enjoy the fruits of their labor”
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
Copper sits at the intersection of three converging forces — secular inflation from Hamiltonian reshoring, massive US electrical infrastructure buildout after 20 years of flat generation, and the commodity supercycle — while most investors are still playing…
“copper's right at the intersection of that — inflation, infrastructure, and people just still aren't really there”
We Need New Rules for Investing - Hamiltonian Economics Is Back | Luke Gromen Explains
Said again: 2026-08-20 (Luke Gromen)
2026-08-03
long PAVE / long GRID
basket
Luke Gromen · video
US electricity generation was flat from 2004–2024 despite massive nominal GDP growth, and must now reverse rapidly to support AI data centers and industrial reshoring; PAVE and GRID ETFs capture the picks-and-shovels beneficiaries of this structural grid…
“ETFs like the PAVE, GRID... essentially set to be the people selling picks and shovels to the mining boom that is reshoring the US”
90d -7.5%
Equities Extremely Complacent; De-lever and Prepare to Buy The Dip
2026-08-03
long GOLD / long BITCOIN
basket
Luke Gromen · video
US fiscal dominance is unfixable without significant currency devaluation across all fiat, making energy-linked neutral reserve assets (gold and Bitcoin) the primary long-term hedge
“I want my currency to have an energy tie”
90d +10.3%
The Fed Can’t Let the AI Bubble Burst | Luke Gromen
2026-08-03
US ELECTRICAL INFRASTRUCTURE EQUITIES
bullish
Luke Gromen · video
America has not grown its electric grid in 20 years while reshoring and AI data center buildout both require massive new electricity supply, creating a structural demand surge for grid infrastructure
“as a country we have not grown our electric grid in 20 years. It's astonishing”
The Fed Can’t Let the AI Bubble Burst | Luke Gromen
2026-08-03
US AI / MEGA-CAP TECH COMPANIES
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
AI companies are debt-financed and priced as if no competition can exist, but Chinese models (e.g. Kimi K3) prove the debate is real, and when the rate of valuation growth slows the sector will derate violently like real estate rather than gently like equities
“this is an issue in a sector that's valued like it can't have issues, will never have issues”
The Fed Can’t Let the AI Bubble Burst | Luke Gromen
2026-08-01
long GOLD / long SPX
ratio
Luke Gromen · video
S&P 500 rises in nominal dollar terms (~7,000 to ~11,000) but falls sharply in gold terms as China's gold accumulation and US fiscal deterioration cause gold to massively outperform equities in real purchasing-power terms
“S&P is going to be up big in dollar terms. I think it's going to be down in gold terms”
90d -2.1%
"We Are In Deep Trouble..." - Luke Gromen Gold Silver
2026-08-01
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
Cayman Islands hedge funds running leveraged basis trades have absorbed ~40% of net Treasury note/bond issuance since 2022; when volatility spikes they degross their entire book and dump Treasuries, meaning long yields paradoxically rise during risk-off, and…
“that's why in the short run, long yields go up on risk off now. You got very fickle creditors”
90d -0.4%
"We Are In Deep Trouble..." - Luke Gromen Gold Silver
Said again: 2026-08-03 (Luke Gromen), 2026-08-03 (Luke Gromen), 2026-08-08 (Luke Gromen), 2026-08-14 (Luke Gromen), 2026-08-24 (Luke Gromen), 2026-09-25 (Luke Gromen), 2026-10-13 (Luke Gromen), 2026-10-17 (Luke Gromen)
2026-08-01
Big Tech
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
Tech is vulnerable from multiple directions simultaneously: any Fed rate hike risks kicking the legs out from under AI-driven valuations, and Bitcoin's persistent Nasdaq correlation means a sustained tech drawdown is the likely mechanism that gives the Fed…
“I'm very nervous about anything tech related. I don't like the setup there”
90d +1.3%
"We Are In Deep Trouble..." - Luke Gromen Gold Silver
China's structural precious metals accumulation extends beyond gold to silver as a secondary monetary metal in the same yuan-defense and reserve-diversification strategy
“they're going to keep buying gold. Because there is no mystery how this is going to go and probably silver too, by the way”
90d -15.0%
"We Are In Deep Trouble..." - Luke Gromen Gold Silver
Said again: 2026-08-14 (Luke Gromen), 2026-08-20 (Luke Gromen), 2026-10-08 (Luke Gromen), 2026-10-10 (Luke Gromen)
With equity valuations at extreme CAPE multiples and multiple simultaneous tail risks (Japanese bonds, UK bonds, geopolitical events), holding T-bills preserves capital and liquidity to redeploy when structural dislocations create deep value
“nearly 60% in cash T-bills and gold bullion. Cuz I don't know”
"We Are In Deep Trouble..." - Luke Gromen Gold Silver
2026-07-23
long GOLD / short OIL
ratio
Macro Voices · video
Gold is the superior expression of the energy-disruption thesis versus oil because China can politically suppress oil prices while the same inflationary forces that would drive oil also drive gold—but with far less event-driven volatility and no geopolitical…
“ultimately I think gold's going way higher relative to oil”
90d -6.3%
MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns
2026-07-23
long GOLD / short OIL
ratio
Macro Voices · video
Gold's monetary premium will expand far faster than oil's commodity value as financial repression takes hold and yuan-gold trade settlement diverts global trade flows into gold, even though oil stays elevated in nominal terms
“I think gold's going way higher relative to oil”
90d -6.3%
MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns
Prolonged war is always inflationary and is forcing Western bond markets toward eventual yield curve control and financial repression, while simultaneously accelerating yuan trade-settlement volumes and demand for gold as the neutral reserve asset in a…
“for me it's too hard just buy gold... I'll just own gold”
90d +2.0%
MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns
Said again: 2026-07-23 (Macro Voices), 2026-08-01 (Luke Gromen), 2026-08-03 (Luke Gromen), 2026-08-08 (Luke Gromen), 2026-08-14 (Luke Gromen), 2026-08-20 (Luke Gromen), 2026-08-20 (Luke Gromen), 2026-08-24 (Luke Gromen), 2026-08-29 (Luke Gromen), 2026-09-13 (Luke Gromen), 2026-09-25 (Luke Gromen), 2026-09-25 (Luke Gromen), 2026-10-13 (Luke Gromen), 2026-10-17 (Luke Gromen)
US reshoring and allied defense buildout require Japanese industrial capacity because China is excluded and the US waited too long to rebuild its own manufacturing base, yet Japanese industrials have underperformed AI headline stocks leaving the move still…
“I think Japanese industrial equities also do very well”
90d -7.2%
MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns
Said again: 2026-07-23 (Macro Voices), 2026-08-03 (Luke Gromen), 2026-08-03 (Luke Gromen), 2026-08-20 (Luke Gromen)
2026-07-23
PAVE
bullish
Macro Voices · video
The US has barely added electrical capacity in 20 years and is now facing severe bottlenecks, giving generation-agnostic infrastructure suppliers 3-5 years of open-field revenue growth as the buildout begins
“I still really like US electrical infrastructure equities”
90d -7.6%
MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns
Said again: 2026-07-23 (Macro Voices), 2026-08-14 (Luke Gromen)
Global bond yields are breaking out in every major market except China as the Iran war drives oil and inflation higher, pushing front-end rates up on a US fiscal deficit already running at 6% of 122% debt-to-GDP and risking a self-reinforcing debt spiral as…
“it's bad for bonds... global bond yields breaking out”
90d +1.6%
Warsh Must Choose The Dollar Or The Bond Market | Luke Gromen
Said again: 2026-07-23 (Macro Voices), 2026-07-23 (Macro Voices)
The adjusted Warren Buffett metric (total equity market cap minus federal debt, divided by GDP) is at its highest level in 65 years — surpassing both 1Q 2000 and 4Q 2021 peaks — while bond yields are breaking out globally due to the Iran war, creating a…
“both of which times were terrible times to own stocks”
90d -3.6%
Warsh Must Choose The Dollar Or The Bond Market | Luke Gromen
Said again: 2026-08-03 (Luke Gromen), 2026-08-14 (Luke Gromen)
2026-04-16
long GOLD / short Long Dur Treasuries
pair
Macro Voices · video
Central banks stopped buying Treasuries on net since 2014 and pivoted to gold, creating a persistent one-way divergence that fiscal stress and eventual debt monetization will only accelerate
“Long gold, short Treasuries has just been an absolute beautiful, very minimal drawdowns, very minimal volatility”
90d -7.1% · 180d -3.1%
MacroVoices #528 Luke Gromen: Hormuz Could Lead To a 1956 US Suez Moment
2026-04-16
long GOLD / short Long Dur Treasuries
pair
Macro Voices · video
Foreign central banks have been net sellers of Treasuries and net buyers of gold since 2014, creating a durable secular trend where gold appreciates in Treasury terms as reserve currency confidence erodes
“Long gold, short Treasuries has just been an absolute beautiful, very minimal drawdowns, very minimal volatility”
90d -7.1% · 180d -3.1%
MacroVoices #528 Luke Gromen: Hormuz Could Lead To a 1956 US Suez Moment
Fiscal deficits will force central banks to print money into a commodity and oil spike to cap bond yields, debasing currency and making hard assets the primary refuge
“it's a good environment to own cash and own gold and go to the beach”
90d -15.4% · 180d -13.3%
MacroVoices #528 Luke Gromen: Hormuz Could Lead To a 1956 US Suez Moment
Said again: 2026-04-16 (Macro Voices)
2026-04-16
E
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Hormuz closure accelerates the energy reshoring impulse and creates durable supply bottlenecks that structurally benefit domestic oil producers
“oil E&P, those things all seem very well positioned”
MacroVoices #528 Luke Gromen: Hormuz Could Lead To a 1956 US Suez Moment
Said again: 2026-04-16 (Macro Voices)
2026-04-16
GROCERY RETAILERS
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Food inflation accelerates nominal same-store sales while the high fixed-cost operating model of grocery retailers creates meaningful earnings leverage in an inflationary environment
“grocery stores should do well in a in a higher food inflation environment”
MacroVoices #528 Luke Gromen: Hormuz Could Lead To a 1956 US Suez Moment
2026-04-16
DOMESTIC ELECTRICAL INFRASTRUCTURE (US)
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Pre-existing bottlenecks plus re-shoring impetus from supply chain crisis will drive sustained demand for domestic electrical infrastructure buildout, with industrial suppliers benefiting from pricing power
MacroVoices #528 Luke Gromen: Hormuz Could Lead To a 1956 US Suez Moment
2026-04-16
GROCERY STORE RETAILERS
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Fertilizer shortages and supply chain disruption will accelerate food inflation, driving nominal revenue comps at high-fixed-cost grocery retailers and creating meaningful operating leverage
“grocery store comps will accelerate... there's leverage here because of the high fixed cost model”
MacroVoices #528 Luke Gromen: Hormuz Could Lead To a 1956 US Suez Moment
2026-03-11
US ELECTRICAL INFRASTRUCTURE EQUITIES
bullish
video
The US grid has produced marginally more electricity than it did 20 years ago while China added a full US-grid equivalent in 4 years; AI buildout and reshoring make massive US grid investment unavoidable with cost-plus economics meaning no budget pushback
“it bodes very well for people in the electrical infrastructure space”
Strait of Hormuz closure is far more durable than consensus believes due to exhausted US/Israeli interceptor stocks and Iran holding back 50%+ of its best missiles, keeping far more oil offline than the 1973 crisis for an extended period
“sold to you…NASDAQ's rallied back. Sold to you. Great.”
90d +27.7% · 180d +37.9%
Luke Gromen Debut On Goldfinger Capital: Iran & AI Only Accelerate The US Debt Death Spiral
Said again: 2026-03-11
Wartime footing and reshoring mandate massive capital deployment into electrical infrastructure and industrial base regardless of strategic outcome — these companies collect the spending whether or not the policy succeeds
“I want to own the industrials that are getting paid on it. I want to own electrical infrastructure.”
90d +2.4% · 180d +3.1%
Luke Gromen Debut On Goldfinger Capital: Iran & AI Only Accelerate The US Debt Death Spiral
Said again: 2026-04-16 (Macro Voices)
2026-03-04
long GOLD / long CASH / long BLUE-CHIP DIVIDEND EQUITIES / long PRODUCTIVE REAL ESTATE
basket
Luke Gromen · video
A 25/25/25/25 allocation across gold, cash, blue-chip dividend equities, and productive real estate neutralizes both tail risks — hyperinflation and deflation/depression — ensuring survival and positive real outcomes in either extreme while capturing the…
“put 25% of your money in gold, 25% in cash, 25% in blue chip equities with a good dividend, and 25% in productive real estate”
90d -5.9% · 180d -5.8%
The Economy is About to Collapse | Luke Gromen
The dollar is wildly overvalued relative to gold — at the implied $38,220 gold price needed to balance Chinese trade, the DXY must trade in the 60s or lower, and US policy now actively wants a weaker dollar to enable reshoring
“By the end of the cycle, I think DXY trades in the 60s, maybe lower. That's where this has to go”
90d -2.3% · 180d -4.9%
UNBELIEVABLE! You Don’t Know What’s About to Hit GOLD in 2026 – Luke Gromen
2026-02-11
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Luke Gromen · video
China is actively reducing Treasury exposure and recycling surpluses into gold rather than US financial assets, removing a key buyer and putting upward pressure on long-end rates.
“The Chinese were said we're going to stop buying treasuries 13 years ago and really have been winding them down ever since.”
90d +2.4% · 180d +4.7%
UNBELIEVABLE! You Don’t Know What’s About to Hit GOLD in 2026 – Luke Gromen
Said again: 2026-03-10 (Luke Gromen), 2026-03-11
The US has effectively removed free markets from uranium and is discussing price floors on various commodities as it shifts to a WWII-style defense industrial mobilization, creating structural upward price pressure on critical materials with long permitting…
“we basically just remove free markets from uranium two weeks ago — price floors being discussed on various commodities”
90d +3.6% · 180d -28.5%
Luke Gromen: The Dollar System Is Breaking — And Markets Aren’t Ready
Said again: 2026-04-16 (Macro Voices), 2026-04-16 (Macro Voices)
2026-01-14
long GOLD / short BITCOIN
ratio
Luke Gromen · video
The Bitcoin/Gold ratio broke down on a 5-year rolling basis for the first time in Bitcoin's history, indicating a regime change in their macro relationship that warrants rotating out of Bitcoin and into gold until the ratio stabilizes or reverses
“I sold it, you know, what I sold at 23 24 ounces of gold. It's at 19.”
90d +14.0% · 180d +11.0%
Deflationary Crunch, The Big Print & Buying Bitcoin Back Lower w/ Luke Gromen
The paper-dollar system is structurally decoupling from the physical world as China spent 15 years offloading dollar reserves for hard commodities via Belt and Road; silver and gold rising through margin hikes signals genuine demand that traditional dollar…
“where you'll actually see the risk metrics will be in the price of silver comes up every day and the price of gold goes up every day”
90d +4.5% · 180d -13.8%
Deflationary Crunch, The Big Print & Buying Bitcoin Back Lower w/ Luke Gromen
Said again: 2026-01-20 (Luke Gromen), 2026-02-11 (Luke Gromen), 2026-03-04 (Luke Gromen), 2026-03-10 (Luke Gromen), 2026-03-11
US true interest expense (gross interest + entitlements + VA) already exceeds 100% of receipts, making the Treasury market structurally unsound and eventually unable to be made money-good without monetization or default
“US true interest expense is over 100% of receipts. They're done. Game over. Print or default.”
90d -0.2% · 180d +1.4%
Deflationary Crunch, The Big Print & Buying Bitcoin Back Lower w/ Luke Gromen
Said again: 2026-01-20 (Luke Gromen), 2026-02-11 (Luke Gromen), 2026-03-10 (Luke Gromen)
With multiple potential catalysts for a deflationary risk-off whoosh and high complacency in markets, holding ~25% cash provides optionality to buy dislocated assets at much lower prices
“I'm sitting probably 25% cash and T-bills right now because I don't know.”
90d +0.9% · 180d +1.7%
Deflationary Crunch, The Big Print & Buying Bitcoin Back Lower w/ Luke Gromen
Said again: 2026-03-04 (Luke Gromen)
2025-12-11
long PAVE / short SOXX
pair
video
The grid is the binding constraint on AI buildout while semiconductors are in surplus, making electrical infrastructure the scarce/appreciating asset and semis relatively vulnerable in the near-term 'BC' regime before forced Fed intervention.
“I think it's going to go down less in that world than stocks will because it's the constraint versus chips”
90d -1.9% · 180d -31.7%
Bitcoin continues trading as a high-beta tech stock rather than a neutral reserve asset; real capital costs are rising which is negative for tech; Bitcoin is not making new highs vs gold for the first time in its history; OG whales selling at record levels…
“I just think it's going a lot lower”
90d +24.2% · 180d +33.3%
Said again: 2026-01-14 (Luke Gromen), 2026-01-20 (Luke Gromen), 2026-03-04 (Luke Gromen)
Silver benefits from rising electronic/industrial demand, aggressive Chinese buying, and growing monetary demand as investors recognize precious metals outperform in both inflationary and deflationary sovereign-stress scenarios.
“everything except for gold and probably silver”
90d +35.2% · 180d +2.4%
Said again: 2026-01-14 (Luke Gromen), 2026-01-20 (Luke Gromen), 2026-03-10 (Luke Gromen)
2025-11-26
long Investment Grade Credit / short Long Dur Treasuries
pair
Luke Gromen · video
Under fiscal dominance and financial repression, investment-grade corporate credit (e.g., Microsoft) will trade through similar-tenor US Treasuries as sovereign credit risk rises while strong corporate cash flows remain intact — making IG corporates the…
“I'd rather own a Microsoft bond than a US Treasury”
90d +0.3% · 180d +1.7%
The Debt Spiral Is Here… Now A New System Must Emerge | Luke Gromen
Running the economy hot with financial repression inflates nominal asset prices; fiscal dominance forces the government to keep all assets elevated because stock-market wealth backs Treasury tax receipts and consumer spending
“It's really good for stocks. It's really good for inflation. It's really good for gold. It's really good for Bitcoin.”
90d +1.4% · 180d +11.1%
The Debt Spiral Is Here… Now A New System Must Emerge | Luke Gromen
Said again: 2025-12-30 (Luke Gromen)
Showing the 60 most recent of 120 tracked stances.
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