Investors / stance tracking
What Meb Faber is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCo-founder & CIO, Cambria
110 dated public stances tracked since 2014-07-02, most recently 2026-08-24. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Meb Faber's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Meb Faber is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
110
tracked stances
62
themes
1
side flips
2026-08-24
last heard
Returns 90d +1.8% 66% correct · 47 calls · 180d +5.0% 69% correct · 45 calls · 1y +7.0% 53% correct · 34 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Small Caps | bullish | -4.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | GOLD | bullish | +0.5% | — | — |
| 2026-02-28 | International Dev | bullish | +4.5% | +7.3% | — |
| 2026-02-28 | Em Equities | owns | +11.6% | +10.5% | — |
| 2026-02-28 | Big Tech | bearish | -21.6% | -18.9% | — |
| 2025-11-27 | International Dev | bullish | +14.4% | +17.1% | — |
| 2025-11-27 | Em Equities | bullish | +18.2% | +27.7% | — |
| 2025-11-25 | Small Caps | bullish | +6.6% | +19.1% | — |
| 2025-11-25 | Big Tech | bearish | +1.1% | -20.2% | — |
| 2025-11-12 | Managed Futures | bullish | +9.9% | +12.2% | — |
| 2025-11-12 | GVAL | bullish | +15.4% | +15.5% | — |
| 2025-11-12 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +8.3% | +39.3% | — |
| 2025-11-12 | CASH | bullish | +0.9% | +1.8% | — |
| 2025-09-20 | SYLD | bullish | +2.6% | +7.4% | +23.1% |
| 2025-09-20 | SPX | bearish | -2.4% | +0.8% | -17.3% |
| 2025-09-20 | FYLD | bullish | +4.1% | +19.5% | +33.8% |
| 2025-05-06 | TRTY | owns | +4.5% | +11.2% | +26.2% |
| 2025-05-06 | SYLD | owns | +6.6% | +11.5% | +32.3% |
| 2025-05-06 | BANKS | bullish | +9.1% | +11.4% | +28.4% |
| 2025-04-17 | GVAL | bullish | +13.6% | +19.7% | +53.0% |
| 2024-11-22 | VIG | bearish | -1.3% | +2.5% | -9.1% |
| 2024-11-22 | USTS | bullish | +0.5% | +1.4% | +8.0% |
| 2024-11-22 | SYLD | bullish | -7.7% | -14.9% | -8.2% |
| 2024-11-22 | ENERGY | bullish | -3.7% | -14.3% | -5.3% |
| 2024-11-22 | Em Equities | bullish | +5.8% | +8.5% | +27.3% |
| 2024-09-16 | Managed Futures | bullish | -2.5% | -5.6% | +1.9% |
| 2024-09-16 | International Dev | bullish | -2.0% | +4.4% | +20.8% |
| 2024-09-16 | GOLD | bullish | +2.6% | +16.0% | +42.3% |
| 2023-09-29 | SYLD | bullish | +10.1% | +18.8% | +19.2% |
| 2023-09-29 | International Dev | bullish | +9.8% | +14.8% | +24.8% |
| 2023-05-19 | SPX | bearish | -4.6% | -8.2% | -28.5% |
| 2023-05-19 | Japan Equities | bullish | -2.3% | +1.0% | +15.9% |
| 2023-05-19 | GOLD | bullish | -4.5% | -1.1% | +22.3% |
| 2022-08-03 | long Commodities Broad / long Managed Futures | hedge | +4.7% | -2.6% | -3.7% |
| 2022-08-03 | Managed Futures | bullish | +8.4% | -2.7% | -4.7% |
| 2022-08-03 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +1.1% | -2.5% | -2.6% |
| 2022-07-14 | Em Equities | bullish | -9.9% | +7.4% | +9.2% |
| 2022-07-14 | China Equities | owns | -21.0% | +3.1% | -7.6% |
| 2022-04-26 | long USTS / long Managed Futures / long TAIL RISK HEDGING | basket | +1.7% | +1.3% | -5.0% |
| 2022-04-26 | SPX | bearish | +4.5% | +8.2% | +1.2% |
Showing the 40 most recent of 47 scored calls.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Managed Futures | 7 | 7 bullish | 2026-08-24 | |
| SPX | 7 | 4 bearish / 3 neutral | 2026-08-24 | |
| Em Equities | 6 | 6 bullish | 2026-02-28 | |
| International Dev | 5 | 5 bullish | 2026-02-28 | |
| Commodities Broad | 4 | 4 bullish | 2025-11-12 | |
| GOLD | 4 | 4 bullish | 2026-07-07 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-08-24
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITIES
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Emerging markets trade at low-teens to single-digit PE ratios, creating the largest valuation gap versus US equities since the 1980s, while representing the majority of global GDP
“a lot of countries trading in low teens... get a few in the single-digit PE ratios and historically that's been an amazing place to go dig around”
Ep. 1404: Mebane Faber Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
2026-08-24
Managed Futures
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Portfolio optimizers consistently allocate ~50% to trend following due to both crisis alpha (left tail protection in 2008/2022) and capturing unexpected right-tail windfalls in assets most investors have no exposure to
“diversification not only as a survival strategy but as an aggressive strategy because the next windfall might come from a surprising place”
Ep. 1404: Mebane Faber Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
US CAPE ratio at ~40-43 is near the 1999 peak with dividend yield about to cross below 1%, and there is no historical precedent for a market starting at CAPE 40 delivering above-average 10-year forward returns
“it's the yellow flashing light is valuation trend. If and when it ever does roll over, it becomes the red flashing light”
Ep. 1404: Mebane Faber Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Real assets serve as portfolio diversifiers when US equities are historically expensive and have already outperformed US stocks since 2000—a fact most investors do not know—making an allocation to REITs, gold, commodities, and TIPS a logical complement to…
“assets like REITs and golds have actually outperformed US stocks, which is crazy takeaway. A lot of people I don't think know that”
90d +0.5%
Cambria’s Meb Faber: Investing in America and the Lessons of Market History
Said again: 2026-08-24 (Meb Faber)
2026-07-07
Small Caps
bullish
Meb Faber · video
US value and small cap stocks trade at roughly one-third the S&P 500's multiple via shareholder-yield metrics, giving investors a way to stay in US equities while avoiding the concentration risk of market-cap weighting at peak valuations; both are already…
“Shareholder yield that we do, the valuation is a third of the S&P”
90d -4.1%
Cambria’s Meb Faber: Investing in America and the Lessons of Market History
2026-07-07
US LARGE CAP EQUITIES
bearish
Meb Faber · video
US stocks are at their second-highest-ever Shiller CAPE ratio with dividend yield near all-time lows, making consensus 15% forward-return expectations unrealistic and warranting a reduced allocation relative to history and global peers
“the US stock market is arguably the most or second most expensive it's ever been on almost every valuation metric”
Cambria’s Meb Faber: Investing in America and the Lessons of Market History
2026-07-07
FOREIGN DEEP VALUE EQUITIES
bullish
Meb Faber · video
With US stocks at historically extreme valuations, foreign deep value equities are materially cheaper and have already begun a multi-year outperformance cycle—Cambria's foreign deep value fund was up over 50% last year while the S&P returned 17%—and such…
“foreign deep value...was up over 50 last year very quietly”
Cambria’s Meb Faber: Investing in America and the Lessons of Market History
2026-02-28
Em Equities
owns
Meb Faber · video
EM tech companies offer comparable sector exposure to US tech at substantially lower valuations, passing the shareholder yield and cheapness screens that US mega-cap tech fails
“in our emerging market fund, tech is actually one of the largest allocations...the stocks are a lot cheaper”
90d +11.6% · 180d +10.5%
The Markets Being Overlooked While the S&P Gets All the Attention | Meb Faber
2026-02-28
International Dev
bullish
Meb Faber · video
44 investable countries trade at CAPE in the low teens vs US CAPE of 40—roughly one-third the US valuation—and deep value ex-US stocks returned 50%+ last year while still sitting at that discount; historical global diversification into cheap-CAPE country…
“deep value stocks outside the US printed a 50% plus year last year...still trade at a third the valuation of the US”
90d +4.5% · 180d +7.3%
The Markets Being Overlooked While the S&P Gets All the Attention | Meb Faber
2026-02-28
US SMALL AND MID CAP VALUE STOCKS
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Small/mid caps have underperformed the S&P by a wide margin for 15 years and now trade at P/E ~10 vs S&P CAPE of 40—a historically extreme spread that resolved in 150%+ outperformance during the 2000-2003 analog period
“we think there's going to be a return to value, a lot of opportunities for smaller mid, but also value companies”
The Markets Being Overlooked While the S&P Gets All the Attention | Meb Faber
2026-02-28
US SHAREHOLDER YIELD STOCKS (HIGH NET BUYBACK + DIVIDEND YIELD, VALUE-SCREENED)
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Many US non-tech companies run 5–10% shareholder yield via net buybacks rather than dividends, making the yield invisible on standard screens; buying these at cheap valuations is accretive and systematically overlooked by dividend-only investors
“companies particularly in the US that have a 5, 10% shareholder yield, it's just hidden”
The Markets Being Overlooked While the S&P Gets All the Attention | Meb Faber
2026-02-28
Big Tech
bearish
Meb Faber · video
Mega-cap US tech is expensive on valuation AND generates near-zero net shareholder yield because heavy share issuance offsets buybacks, failing both screens Cambria uses to find value
“we're not owning the tech companies in the US for two reasons”
90d -21.6% · 180d -18.9%
The Markets Being Overlooked While the S&P Gets All the Attention | Meb Faber
2025-11-27
long T / short USTS
pair
Meb Faber · video
Corporate and junk bond spreads are near 30-year lows relative to T-bills, meaning investors are not being compensated for credit risk and should park in T-bills until spreads widen to historically normal levels
“you're not getting paid to take on the risk in fixed income land”
Meb Faber: Everyone Reacts to Volatility...But Smart Investors Do THIS
2025-11-27
Em Equities
bullish
Meb Faber · video
EM valuations at ~12x CAPE — roughly a third to a quarter of the US multiple — represent the cheapest bucket in the investable universe and most US investors hold zero allocation despite outperformance already starting
“the cheapest bucket is down around 12 — so a third or a quarter almost of the US”
90d +18.2% · 180d +27.7%
Meb Faber: Everyone Reacts to Volatility...But Smart Investors Do THIS
2025-11-27
International Dev
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Foreign developed market valuations (CAPE in the teens) are at a historically extreme discount to US stocks (CAPE ~40), a gap Faber calls Grand Canyon-wide that historically precedes a sustained decade of foreign outperformance
“you could have 10 years of foreign stock outperformance”
90d +14.4% · 180d +17.1%
Meb Faber: Everyone Reacts to Volatility...But Smart Investors Do THIS
2025-11-27
DEEP VALUE INTERNATIONAL STOCKS
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Deeply discounted foreign value stocks are quietly compounding with zero crowding or sentiment froth — Faber's own strategy is up 50% YTD and has already overtaken the S&P over 1-, 3-, and 5-year horizons
“no one's clamoring for this — and that's actually outperforming the S&P over the last 1, 3, and 5 years”
Meb Faber: Everyone Reacts to Volatility...But Smart Investors Do THIS
2025-11-27
US SMALL AND MID-CAP STOCKS
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Small and mid-caps have chronically underperformed cap-weight, leaving a wide valuation spread that Faber expects to close over many years as capital rotates away from mega-cap concentration
“huge opportunity there that I think could last many years and many dozens of percentage points outperformance”
Meb Faber: Everyone Reacts to Volatility...But Smart Investors Do THIS
2025-11-27
US SHAREHOLDER YIELD / VALUE STOCKS
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Shareholder yield and value strategies within US equities exploit a historically extreme valuation gap vs the cap-weighted index and should outperform as the low-return large-cap environment persists
“shareholder yield — value within the US is Grand Canyon widespread versus the market cap weight”
Meb Faber: Everyone Reacts to Volatility...But Smart Investors Do THIS
2025-11-25
Big Tech
bearish
Meb Faber · video
US mega-caps are overpriced relative to history and XUS peers after a 15-year run compounding at 15% per year, making future returns unlikely to repeat
“probably not in these mega caps that everyone and their mom owns... they're pretty pretty pretty pricey”
90d +1.1% · 180d -20.2%
Meb Faber on Quant Investing, Shareholder Yield ETFs & Building Cambria Funds
Said again: 2025-11-27 (Meb Faber)
2025-11-25
SHAREHOLDER YIELD STOCKS (HIGH NET BUYBACKS + DIVIDENDS, LOW VALUATION)
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Companies with high net shareholder yield—dividends plus buybacks minus share issuance—historically outperform pure dividend strategies because buybacks are a tax-efficient flexible dividend that also captures intrinsic value arbitrage when stock trades below…
“shareholder yield which is combination of cash dividends and stock buybacks historically was an awesome factor”
Meb Faber on Quant Investing, Shareholder Yield ETFs & Building Cambria Funds
2025-11-25
XUS
bullish
Meb Faber · video
US 10-year CAPE is over 40 while the rest of world trades at roughly half that valuation, and historically US vs XUS returns have been a coin flip, making mean reversion toward international markets likely
“the 10-year PE ratio in the US it's over 40 now, whereas in the rest of the world is half that”
Meb Faber on Quant Investing, Shareholder Yield ETFs & Building Cambria Funds
2025-11-25
Small Caps
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Within US markets small and mid-cap stocks offer more attractive valuations than large-cap, where the value factor currently finds better entry points than in mega-cap names
“in the US, particularly midcap and small cap looks more interesting than large cap”
90d +6.6% · 180d +19.1%
Meb Faber on Quant Investing, Shareholder Yield ETFs & Building Cambria Funds
2025-11-12
Managed Futures
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Trend following is the premier diversifier to a traditional stock/bond portfolio because it tends to perform well during macro dislocations when buy-and-hold suffers, and a yin-yang combination of the two produces superior risk-adjusted outcomes
“there's no more premier diversifier to that traditional portfolio than trend following”
90d +9.9% · 180d +12.2%
Meb Faber interview on trend, global value, shareholder yield, and 351 exchanges
2025-11-12
Commodities Broad
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Most US investors have very little real asset exposure in their portfolios, making REITs, TIPS, and commodities a diversifying addition that improves portfolio resilience
“most US investors often have very little real assets — things like REITs, real estate, TIPS, commodities and commodity equities”
90d +8.3% · 180d +39.3%
Meb Faber interview on trend, global value, shareholder yield, and 351 exchanges
2025-11-12
351 ETF EXCHANGE / TAX-DEFERRED DIVERSIFICATION OUT OF CONCENTRATED POSITIONS
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Investors holding highly appreciated concentrated stock positions (e.g. Nvidia) can use IRS Section 351 to contribute shares into a diversified ETF without triggering a taxable event, deferring gains while achieving diversification — a structurally…
“we think it's one of the most interesting developments in the investing space as far as products in the past 20 years”
Meb Faber interview on trend, global value, shareholder yield, and 351 exchanges
2025-11-12
GVAL
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Foreign value stocks in countries with CAPE ratios near 10 (Singapore, Turkey, Poland, Brazil, Colombia) are trading at a Grand Canyon-wide discount to US equities at CAPE 40, and have quietly begun outperforming the S&P 500 over 1, 3, and 5-year periods with…
“foreign value stocks have started to outperform... GVO is now outperforming the S&P over the last one, three, and last 5 years”
90d +15.4% · 180d +15.5%
Meb Faber interview on trend, global value, shareholder yield, and 351 exchanges
Said again: 2025-11-25 (Meb Faber)
Screening for high net shareholder yield (dividends plus net buybacks) identifies high-quality, high-cash-flow companies that avoid serial share issuers and expensive tech, producing better long-term returns especially in sideways or down markets
“screening historically for stocks the past 100 years, you end up with much better companies, high cash flow companies”
90d +0.9% · 180d +1.8%
Meb Faber interview on trend, global value, shareholder yield, and 351 exchanges
2025-09-20
SYLD
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Screening for high shareholder yield (dividends + net buybacks) combined with cheap valuations and quality filters selects stocks trading at single-digit PEs vs. the S&P's near-40 CAPE, historically outperforming the market by ~1-2% annually
“the average stock going into our funds has a double-digit shareholder yield”
90d +2.6% · 180d +7.4% · 1y +23.1%
Are Buybacks Better Than Dividends? | Meb Faber Interview
US equities are near historical valuation extremes (10-year CAPE ~40, S&P yield at record-low 1.2%), and the 15-year run of 15%/year annualized returns matches only three prior bubble eras, making outsized forward returns very unlikely
“do not expect 15% returns going forward”
90d -2.4% · 180d +0.8% · 1y -17.3%
Are Buybacks Better Than Dividends? | Meb Faber Interview
Said again: 2025-11-12 (Meb Faber)
2025-09-20
GVOW
bullish
Meb Faber · video
A Grand Canyon-wide valuation gap between deeply cheap global value stocks and expensive US market-cap-weight equities sets up for multi-decade outperformance, with the spread so extreme it only needs to partially mean-revert to deliver outsized returns
“you could set yourself up for amazing returns for not just a quarter or year but a decade or more”
Are Buybacks Better Than Dividends? | Meb Faber Interview
2025-09-20
FYLD
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Foreign developed markets offer far higher dividend yields and much cheaper valuations than the US, and the shareholder yield screen captures stocks at roughly 50/50 dividends vs. buybacks, producing superior risk-adjusted income with the fund up 20-30% in…
“foreign and emerging is a great place to look”
90d +4.1% · 180d +19.5% · 1y +33.8%
Are Buybacks Better Than Dividends? | Meb Faber Interview
2025-05-06
long T / short USTS
pair
Meb Faber · video
Risky credit (corporate, junk, EM debt) offers historically narrow yield spreads over T-bills and provides no margin of safety, making it rational to hold T-bills and wait for spreads to widen before taking on credit risk.
“does it make sense to invest in these risky bonds when they have a below average yield spread to T-bills? The answer is no”
How Meb Faber Is Positioning His Portfolio for 2025 | In the Money with Amber Kanwar
2025-05-06
SYLD
owns
Meb Faber · video
US companies in consumer discretionary, financials, materials, industrials, and energy are returning double-digit aggregate yields via buybacks and dividends while trading at cheap valuations relative to the expensive tech-heavy market-cap-weighted index.
“the average stock coming into the portfolio has a double-digit yield — let that sink in”
90d +6.6% · 180d +11.5% · 1y +32.3%
How Meb Faber Is Positioning His Portfolio for 2025 | In the Money with Amber Kanwar
2025-05-06
TRTY
owns
Meb Faber · video
Combining 50% trend-following with 50% global buy-and-hold creates a portfolio that reduces drawdown in crises while capturing the eventual recovery, producing lower volatility than equities alone.
“I basically put all my public assets into Trinity Styles”
90d +4.5% · 180d +11.2% · 1y +26.2%
How Meb Faber Is Positioning His Portfolio for 2025 | In the Money with Amber Kanwar
European banks have quietly outperformed the Mag 7 over the last three years and remain under the radar of US investors, suggesting continued relative strength before a consensus shift arrives.
“European banks outperforming the MAG 7 over the last 3 years — so there's some of these forces at work”
90d +9.1% · 180d +11.4% · 1y +28.4%
How Meb Faber Is Positioning His Portfolio for 2025 | In the Money with Amber Kanwar
2025-04-17
long VALUE AND MOMENTUM STOCK BASKET (~100 NAMES, CHEAP STOCKS IN UPTRENDS) / short SPX
hedge
Meb Faber · video
In an expensive US market now in a declining trend, owning cheap high-momentum stocks while hedging with S&P futures captures value-rotation upside while neutralizing market beta, with the hedge dialed to maximum given the current regime
“currently is 100% hedged”
Hedgeye Investing Summit Spring 2025 | Meb Faber, co-founder & CIO of Cambria IM
2025-04-17
GVAL
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Cheapest countries globally (including Colombia and Poland) trade at single-digit Shiller CAPEs while the US hit its highest-ever valuation in Q4 2024, and the spread already drove ~20 percentage points of Q1 outperformance for cheap-country baskets versus…
“a basket of the cheapest countries including Colombia including Poland outperformed the S&P by 20 percentage points”
90d +13.6% · 180d +19.7% · 1y +53.0%
Hedgeye Investing Summit Spring 2025 | Meb Faber, co-founder & CIO of Cambria IM
Said again: 2025-05-06 (Meb Faber)
Corporate and other risky bond spreads over T-bills are near 30-year lows, meaning investors are not being compensated for default/duration risk; holding T-bills until spreads blow out is the historically superior risk-adjusted approach
“none of these markets have any measurable yield...the juice is not worth the squeeze”
90d +0.5% · 180d +1.4% · 1y +8.0%
Meb Faber: A Better Approach To Dividend Investing
2024-11-22
Em Equities
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Foreign and emerging markets trade at significantly cheaper valuations than US large-cap, and historical mean-reversion across 150 years of data supports global diversification outperforming any single-country concentration
“we think is one of the biggest opportunities we've ever seen for value, not just within the US but in foreign and emerging”
90d +5.8% · 180d +8.5% · 1y +27.3%
Meb Faber: A Better Approach To Dividend Investing
US large-cap is historically expensive at ~38x CAPE but trend remains up, so a short call is premature; expensive uptrends only become painful when they roll into expensive downtrends
“when you move from an expensive uptrend to an expensive downtrend, that's where the pain usually comes”
Meb Faber: A Better Approach To Dividend Investing
Energy has fallen from ~33% of S&P 500 to roughly 2-3%, sits at low valuations, and exhibits high shareholder yield, making it a historically cheap contrarian sector with mean-reversion potential
“energy bottomed a few years ago at like 2% of the S&P 500...still has really high shareholder yield, low valuations”
90d -3.7% · 180d -14.3% · 1y -5.3%
Meb Faber: A Better Approach To Dividend Investing
2024-11-22
SYLD
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Traditional dividend funds ignore buybacks, which now exceed cash dividends; incorporating net buybacks and penalizing share issuance produces superior returns versus all dividend funds in Morningstar's database
“if you reran this study do you know how many funds that SYLD would have outperformed? The answer was all of them”
90d -7.7% · 180d -14.9% · 1y -8.2%
Meb Faber: A Better Approach To Dividend Investing
2024-11-22
SMALL-CAP VALUE STOCKS
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Small-cap value sits at or near zero-percentile historical valuations, making it one of the most extreme cheap readings ever recorded, while being largely ignored by investors
“small value particularly looks really exciting...it's as cheap as you get”
Meb Faber: A Better Approach To Dividend Investing
Despite its dividend branding, VIG's actual portfolio carries valuations worse than the S&P 500, meaning investors are buying expensive growth masquerading as income with no valuation margin of safety
“you'd be shocked...this is like buying the S&P but with even worse valuations — why would anyone do that”
90d -1.3% · 180d +2.5% · 1y -9.1%
Meb Faber: A Better Approach To Dividend Investing
2024-09-16
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITIES
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Emerging markets trade at single-digit P/E ratios with mid-single-digit dividend yields plus buyback yields totaling ~10% shareholder yield after years of underperformance and investor neglect
“you can get single digit PE ratio, mid single-digit dividend yields, buyback yields on top of that”
Investing at All-Time Highs Is a 'Great Idea': Here’s What It Means For Gold & Stocks - Meb Faber
2024-09-16
Managed Futures
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Trend-following strategies diversify a buy-and-hold portfolio by typically performing well during major drawdowns when traditional assets suffer, providing both statistical and psychological diversification
“trend following usually does great during those periods”
90d -2.5% · 180d -5.6% · 1y +1.9%
Investing at All-Time Highs Is a 'Great Idea': Here’s What It Means For Gold & Stocks - Meb Faber
2024-09-16
International Dev
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Global REITs offer more attractive valuations than US REITs, which on aggregate are not cheap relative to other opportunities
“global REITs to me look a little more interesting than American ones do”
90d -2.0% · 180d +4.4% · 1y +20.8%
Investing at All-Time Highs Is a 'Great Idea': Here’s What It Means For Gold & Stocks - Meb Faber
Gold is in an all-time high uptrend with low retail sentiment, and historically performs well in negative real rate and inverted yield curve environments
“gold hitting all-time high is a great sign... we're very positive right now”
90d +2.6% · 180d +16.0% · 1y +42.3%
Investing at All-Time Highs Is a 'Great Idea': Here’s What It Means For Gold & Stocks - Meb Faber
2024-09-16
US LARGE-CAP TECH / MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED INDEX
bearish
Meb Faber · video
US market-cap-weighted indexes are historically expensive and highly concentrated in a few names with no fundamental tether, suggesting below-average future returns relative to alternatives
“the US isn't always the world's largest stock market... when things get really expensive these can last a decade or more”
Investing at All-Time Highs Is a 'Great Idea': Here’s What It Means For Gold & Stocks - Meb Faber
2024-09-16
US REITS
neutral
Meb Faber · video
US REIT valuations on average are not cheap, making them less attractive than other available investment opportunities
“there's better investing opportunities out there if you're looking to put money to work than REITs”
Investing at All-Time Highs Is a 'Great Idea': Here’s What It Means For Gold & Stocks - Meb Faber
2024-09-16
SMALL-CAP AND MID-CAP VALUE EQUITIES
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Small- and mid-cap value stocks trade at compelling valuations relative to large-cap growth and historically outperform in sideways or down markets and over multi-year horizons
“the better part of the next few years, next decade could be exciting”
Investing at All-Time Highs Is a 'Great Idea': Here’s What It Means For Gold & Stocks - Meb Faber
2024-05-11
long T / short USTS
pair
Meb Faber · video
T-bill yields near 5% make riskier fixed income (corporate, high yield, EM bonds) unattractive because credit spreads are near zero or negative, offering no compensation for additional credit and duration risk — historically you buy risky bonds when spreads…
“t-bills are giving you 5%... corporate bonds or junk bonds or emerging Market bonds yielding 5% or less it seems crazy to me to invest and take on these risks”
Meb Faber and Rafael Resendes | PNL For a Purpose
2023-09-29
International Dev
bullish
Meb Faber · video
US stocks have compounded ~12% annually for 15 years and are expensive on a 10-year CAPE basis, while foreign stocks trade at a deep discount and have been ignored since the GFC — a reversal that historically persists for multiple years once it begins
“foreign stocks have been largely swept away to the Dustbin of most investors”
90d +9.8% · 180d +14.8% · 1y +24.8%
Meb Faber on yield, long-term returns, and more | The Morning Show
2023-09-29
SYLD
bullish
Meb Faber · video
US value stocks with buybacks and dividends trade at single-digit PEs in sectors like financials, energy, and materials, representing one of the best historical entry points for the value trade; SYLD overlays a quantitative momentum screen on that value filter
“we think it's one of the best times in history to do value-based trade”
90d +10.1% · 180d +18.8% · 1y +19.2%
Meb Faber on yield, long-term returns, and more | The Morning Show
Inverted yield curve environments have historically been strong for precious metals, and Cambria's quantitative momentum-trend model has been systematically loading up on the asset class as gold approaches all-time highs
“Gold's knocking on all-time highs right now… in a negative yield curve environment precious metals do fantastic historically”
90d -4.5% · 180d -1.1% · 1y +22.3%
Meb Faber Returns! - To Discuss Global Investing, ETFs, and More
US trades at ~30x PE vs foreign developed high-teens and EM low-teens; 30 years of US outperformance has been almost entirely multiple expansion from cheap to expensive, while foreign went expensive to cheap — an inflection Faber pins to the US dollar peak in…
“I think will mark last year probably as the inflection point — the US dollar peaking in Q4 of 2022”
90d -4.6% · 180d -8.2% · 1y -28.5%
Meb Faber Returns! - To Discuss Global Investing, ETFs, and More
2023-05-19
EMERGING MARKETS VALUE EQUITIES
bullish
The Business Brew · video
EM trades at P/E ratios of 5 with dividend yields of 6–7%, offering structural deep value; Faber names it his 10-year 'desert island' strategy because cheap starting valuations provide survivability against a wide range of macro outcomes
“PE ratios of five, these amazing discounts — it's really cheap stuff”
Meb Faber Returns! - To Discuss Global Investing, ETFs, and More
2023-05-19
Japan Equities
bullish
The Business Brew · video
Japan at ~19x PE is reasonably valued after decades of stagnation, and a government-driven corporate governance reform is accelerating buybacks alongside dividends, giving quantitative shareholder-yield screens their highest opportunity set there
“Japan is a perfect example — we're seeing a ton of companies doing a lot more buybacks than dividends”
90d -2.3% · 180d +1.0% · 1y +15.9%
Meb Faber Returns! - To Discuss Global Investing, ETFs, and More
2023-05-19
US VALUE / SHAREHOLDER YIELD EQUITIES
bullish
The Business Brew · video
US value stocks offer a significant opportunity relative to the US market-cap-weighted index because they trade at a large discount and incorporate both dividends and net buybacks, capturing the full shareholder yield that pure dividend screens miss
“The value trade in the US is one of the biggest opportunities as well”
Meb Faber Returns! - To Discuss Global Investing, ETFs, and More
2022-10-27
VALUE STOCKS (US AND FOREIGN)
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Value spreads vs. growth are at historically high levels both in the US and abroad, and historical inflation regimes (1940s, 1970s) show value outperforming the broad market significantly—the post-internet-bubble analog saw small-cap value beat the index by…
“I'm very optimistic of the potential performance of value for the rest of this decade”
Meb Faber - An Investor's Mindset is the 🔑 for Long Term Returns | Happy Hour Money Podcast
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