Investors / stance tracking
What Mel Mattison is saying
Guest
11 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-12, most recently 2025-04-16. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Mel Mattison's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Mel Mattison is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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11
tracked stances
8
themes
0
side flips
2025-04-16
last heard
Returns 90d +10.5% (n=9) · 180d +13.4% (n=9) · 1y +19.2% (n=9)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Dur Treasuries | 2 | 2 bearish | 2025-04-16 | |
| SPX | 2 | 2 bullish | 2025-04-16 | |
| BITCOIN | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-04-16 | |
| COP | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-04-16 | |
| GOLD | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-04-16 | |
| INDUSTRIALS | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-08-12 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2025-04-16
GOLD
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Sovereign debt bubble globally leaves only two exits — collapse or inflation — and policymakers will choose inflation, while central banks have flipped from decades of selling to buying, mirroring the 1971–1982 cycle that produced a 25x price gain
“$50,000 gold in 10 years? Honestly, maybe”
90d -0.2% · 180d +23.0% · 1y +43.1%
BOTTOM IS IN, Says Trader Who Predicted The Crash | Mel Mattison
2025-04-16
BITCOIN
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Bitcoin is decoupling from NASDAQ as regulatory legitimacy advances via the Genius Act stablecoin pathway and potential sovereign wealth fund inclusion, making it a commodity-like inflation hedge with supply-demand pricing independent of tariffs or earnings
“Bitcoin is in a process of decoupling from NASDAQ 100% correlation”
90d +40.2% · 180d +37.1% · 1y -10.6%
BOTTOM IS IN, Says Trader Who Predicted The Crash | Mel Mattison
2025-04-16
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Policymakers will engineer stealth yield curve distortion — bill issuance, SLR expansion, stablecoin demand — to artificially suppress nominal yields while sustained 4–6% inflation destroys real purchasing power, trapping bond holders in deeply negative real…
“bonds is basically where I think the price gets paid is the real purchasing power of bonds”
90d +2.7% · 180d -4.9% · 1y -2.1%
BOTTOM IS IN, Says Trader Who Predicted The Crash | Mel Mattison
2025-04-16
COP
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Colombia has ~40% debt-to-GDP giving it balance sheet expansion capacity, and as a commodity-linked EM currency it benefits from the anti-dollar trade while developed market currencies face broad devaluation
“I would be bullish, you know, the Colombian peso”
90d +8.1% · 180d +4.5% · 1y +45.6%
BOTTOM IS IN, Says Trader Who Predicted The Crash | Mel Mattison
2025-04-16
SPX
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Persistent fiscal deficits drive nominal GDP growth and a depreciating dollar inflates the 50% of S&P revenues earned overseas, pushing index prices higher in nominal terms even absent real growth, targeting ~7,000 by year-end
“we're going to bounce up and we're going to have a nice year... close out somewhere around 7,000 on the S&P”
90d +18.7% · 180d +26.9% · 1y +35.0%
BOTTOM IS IN, Says Trader Who Predicted The Crash | Mel Mattison
2025-04-16
USD
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Dollar weakens as over-allocated global portfolios rebalance away from US tech, sustained fiscal deficits and inflation debase the currency, repeating the 1990s cycle when DXY fell from 120 to the 70s
“DXY ends the year under 100”
90d -0.6% · 180d -2.6% · 1y -3.8%
BOTTOM IS IN, Says Trader Who Predicted The Crash | Mel Mattison
2025-04-16
long EM CURRENCIES (COLOMBIAN PESO, MEXICAN PESO) / short USD
pair
Forward Guidance · video
EM currencies benefit from lower sovereign debt loads and commodity tailwinds while developed market currencies face debasement from bloated balance sheets, making long EM / short DM FX a clean expression of the anti-dollar trade
“emerging market currencies overdeveloped once this tunnel period clears seems to be a pretty good bet”
BOTTOM IS IN, Says Trader Who Predicted The Crash | Mel Mattison
2024-08-12
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
The market is wrongly buying the weakening-jobs and falling-inflation narrative that pushed the 10-year to 4.25%; inflationary structural policies — tariffs, industrial policy, green spending — will prove this narrative wrong and force yields materially higher
“I think the Market's making a little bit of a mistake right now with with treasuries down at four and a quarter”
90d +3.8% · 180d +6.0% · 1y +6.1%
Deficit Spending Will Send S&P 500 To 6,000 And Beyond | George Robertson & Mel Mattison
2024-08-12
RUSSELL 2000
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Small caps have significantly underperformed and the index's small total market cap means limited incremental capital can drive substantial multiple expansion; Fed rate-cut narrative provides the near-term catalyst for rotation
“divergences start to resolve themselves not with a crashing S&P but with a Russell kind of making up ground”
Deficit Spending Will Send S&P 500 To 6,000 And Beyond | George Robertson & Mel Mattison
2024-08-12
INDUSTRIALS
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
The industrials ETF has been in consolidation and represents the next rotation target as reindustrialization and onshoring policy tailwinds generate a fresh narrative catalyst for capital to move in
“talk about a stock sector ETF like xli the industrial uh you know that's been in a bit of a consolidation phase”
90d +16.2% · 180d +13.0% · 1y +24.6%
Deficit Spending Will Send S&P 500 To 6,000 And Beyond | George Robertson & Mel Mattison
2024-08-12
SPX
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Structural passive fund flows from automatic payroll deductions create a perpetual marginal buyer that absorbs every dip, driving multiple expansion toward 30x PE as old valuation frameworks are abandoned and the self-reinforcing bubble crescendo builds to a…
“6,000 handle on S&P within 12 months seven handle within 24 months I still think we're easily on track”
Deficit Spending Will Send S&P 500 To 6,000 And Beyond | George Robertson & Mel Mattison
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