Investors / stance tracking
What Michael Green is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowChief Strategist & PM, Simplify
51 dated public stances tracked since 2022-04-25, most recently 2026-10-02. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Michael Green's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Michael Green is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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51
tracked stances
32
themes
5
side flips
2026-10-02
last heard
Returns 90d -0.9% 39% correct · 38 calls · 180d -4.7% 29% correct · 21 calls · 1y -2.1% 31% correct · 13 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | SEMIS | bearish | +6.7% | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | long Long Dur Treasuries / long TIPS / short SPX | hedge | -6.0% | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | SOXL | bearish | +6.0% | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | MU | bearish | -10.2% | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | Long Dur Treasuries | bullish | -7.3% | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | Investment Grade Credit | bearish | +3.9% | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | GOOGL | bearish | +3.9% | — | — |
| 2026-06-11 | USTS | bearish | +1.6% | — | — |
| 2026-06-11 | BANKS | bearish | -3.1% | — | — |
| 2026-05-27 | ENERGY | bullish | +9.7% | — | — |
| 2026-05-27 | Commodities Broad | bearish | -3.2% | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | SPX | bullish | +3.5% | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | High Yield | bullish | +1.2% | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | VOL | bearish | +26.4% | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | SPX | bearish | -5.5% | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | NVDA | bearish | -3.8% | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | HOUSING | bearish | -8.2% | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | USTS | bullish | -2.1% | -2.5% | — |
| 2026-02-14 | BITCOIN | bearish | -13.3% | +9.1% | — |
| 2026-02-14 | AAPL | bearish | -13.9% | -15.9% | — |
| 2026-01-29 | YGLD | bullish | -30.7% | -42.2% | — |
| 2026-01-29 | GOOGL | bullish | +3.5% | -1.2% | — |
| 2026-01-29 | GOLD | bullish | -15.8% | -25.5% | — |
| 2026-01-29 | CDX | bullish | -2.4% | -4.1% | — |
| 2026-01-19 | SPX | bearish | -4.9% | -10.1% | — |
| 2025-07-23 | USD | bullish | +3.2% | +4.0% | +9.1% |
| 2025-07-23 | SPX | bearish | -6.1% | -7.5% | -17.7% |
| 2025-01-24 | SPX | bullish | -9.8% | +4.9% | +15.3% |
| 2025-01-24 | China Equities | bearish | -8.9% | -26.6% | -29.2% |
| 2025-01-24 | BITCOIN | bearish | +10.4% | -13.3% | +15.0% |
| 2024-08-02 | SPX | bearish | -7.0% | -13.7% | -19.9% |
| 2024-08-02 | Long Dur Treasuries | bullish | -5.3% | -8.9% | -6.5% |
| 2023-08-14 | Commercial Real Estate | bearish | +8.6% | -4.2% | -15.0% |
| 2023-01-16 | long USTS / short USTS | spread | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 2023-01-16 | Em Equities | bullish | -2.9% | +0.8% | -4.3% |
| 2022-06-21 | Long Dur Treasuries | bullish | -2.0% | -2.9% | -3.3% |
| 2022-04-25 | BITCOIN | bearish | +44.1% | +52.5% | +29.9% |
| 2022-04-25 | AAPL | bearish | +6.0% | +8.0% | -1.2% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 6 | 2 bullish / 4 bearish | 2026-05-14 | |
| BITCOIN | 3 | 3 bearish | 2026-02-14 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-07-08 | |
| TIPS | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-09-09 | |
| AAPL | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-02-14 | |
| GOLD | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-09-09 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-02
long USTS / long TIPS
basket
Danielle DiMartino Booth · video
A 50/50 portfolio of 30-year nominal Treasuries and 30-year TIPS currently yields over 4% with TIPS alone offering well above 3% real — the first such opportunity in nearly a generation — and the entire bond selloff is a passive-flow mechanical artifact, not…
“those are historically just an extraordinary opportunity”
DiMartino Booth joins Andy Wang of Inspired Money — Why Index Funds Won't Let the Market Crash
2026-09-09
TIPS
bullish
Wealthion · video
30-year TIPS at a 3% real yield can nearly fund a 4% withdrawal rule with no principal risk, making them extraordinarily attractive for inflation-protected income relative to equities and nominal bonds, yet they are widely ignored
“a 30-year tip currently offering a 3% real yield which extraordinary”
What Bessent Is Really Doing in the Bond Market | Mike Green
Gold is the ultimate negative-trust asset (1/n where n = faith in central bankers) and will continue to rise as institutional trust erodes and the Fed eventually cuts rates, despite being expensive by most traditional valuation metrics
“gold is kind of that negative trust asset... as that faith falls the multiple of gold rises”
What Bessent Is Really Doing in the Bond Market | Mike Green
2026-07-28
SMALL CAP VALUE
bearish
Michael Green · video
Despite being labeled cheap relative value, small cap value is among the most richly valued markets once adjusted for high indebtedness and unprofitability, and passive flows have eliminated the fundamental-driven mean reversion that historically justified…
“small cap value while many people will try to highlight it as a relative value is among the most richly valued markets”
Michael Green: Why Markets Are More Fragile Than Anyone Wants to Admit
2026-07-28
LARGE CAP EQUITIES / MEGA CAP MOMENTUM
bullish
Michael Green · video
Passive index funds must overweight the largest companies first to minimize tracking error, creating persistent and self-reinforcing flow-driven tailwinds that make momentum investing structurally advantaged in the current regime
“the easiest way to do that is simply buy the largest companies. They are the ones that are most impacted by these flows”
Michael Green: Why Markets Are More Fragile Than Anyone Wants to Admit
China is aggressively ramping domestic semiconductor and memory production in response to US sanctions, and given its track record of achieving low-cost dominance in solar, steel, and aluminum once it targets a market, consensus assumptions about sustained…
“anytime China has put its sights on a market whether it's solar or steel or aluminum, it has come to dominate that in the low cost framework”
90d +6.7%
Stock Market Leverage Higher than at Any Time in History | Michael Green
2026-07-24
CRACK SPREAD / REFINED PRODUCTS
bullish
Michael Green · video
Refining capacity is being destroyed simultaneously in the Middle East (targeted facilities) and Russia (Ukraine war pressure), while global demand for finished petroleum products persists, pushing the spread between gasoline and crude oil prices sharply…
“what's called the crack spread, the spread between gasoline prices and oil prices, is rising rapidly”
Stock Market Leverage Higher than at Any Time in History | Michael Green
2026-07-08
long Long Dur Treasuries / long TIPS / short SPX
hedge
Michael Green · video
Long duration bonds and TIPS are structurally underweighted versus overvalued equities — passive flows mechanically suppress duration allocations while blindly bidding up stocks, creating a compelling relative-value opportunity that also hedges a deflationary…
“we should be buying more tips and we should be buying less equities”
90d -6.0%
Mike Green: AI is fueling another 1987 market CRASH!
2026-07-08
Investment Grade Credit
bearish
CNBC International · video
Credit on AI hyperscalers is underwritten against market capitalisation rather than true fundamentals; if equity prices correct, these companies cannot refinance on the same terms, making current tight spreads structurally mispriced.
“the underpinnings on much of this credit is basically against market capitalization”
90d +3.9%
AI fundamentals have become detached from their stock prices: Michael Green
2026-07-08
SOX
bearish
CNBC International · video
Leveraged ETFs like SOXL (3× semiconductor) mechanically amplify chip-stock volatility through forced daily rebalancing — when prices fall, billions in de-leveraging must be sold, which is currently the primary driver of the chip-stock selloff rather than…
“chip stocks in particular right now are being hit largely from the growth of levered vehicles”
AI fundamentals have become detached from their stock prices: Michael Green
Over half of Google's most recent earnings were simply the mark-up of its Anthropic stake on secondary markets, making it absurd to apply a stock price multiple to those gains as if they were operating earnings.
“To put a multiple on that is absolutely totally absurd”
90d +3.9%
AI fundamentals have become detached from their stock prices: Michael Green
2026-07-08
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Michael Green · video
Passive bond indices are mechanically ~35% underweight 10-year-plus duration bonds because falling prices reduced their market-cap weight, creating a structural buying opportunity as those flows eventually normalize toward rational forward-return weights
“it feels like nobody wants the 30-year bond because passive bond indices are ignoring those long duration assets”
90d -7.3%
Mike Green: AI is fueling another 1987 market CRASH!
Said again: 2026-09-09 (Wealthion)
Triple-leveraged semiconductor ETFs are self-liquidating due to volatility drag amplified by leverage, and their endogenous rebalancing flows artificially inflate the narrow set of underlying names, making a collapse self-reinforcing on the way down
“these are largely self-liquidating pools of capital that currently causing havoc in the market”
90d +6.0%
Mike Green: AI is fueling another 1987 market CRASH!
Micron's current margins are cyclically unsustainable given the well-documented boom-bust nature of memory chip markets, while levered ETF flows rather than fundamentals are driving price to irrational levels
“I don't think anybody realistically expects Micron's or SK Hynix's margins to maintain at these levels”
90d -10.2%
Mike Green: AI is fueling another 1987 market CRASH!
Said again: 2026-07-24 (Michael Green)
Hedge funds are exploiting a ~10–20bps mispricing between Treasury futures and off-the-run issues at 50:1 leverage, creating systemic fragility in the US Treasury market that is not risk-free and exposes the bond market to disruption whenever credit financing…
“That's not risk-free to the system. It's an extraordinary amount of leverage sitting out there”
90d +1.6%
Michael Green: The Bond Market Is Hiding A Banking Crisis
Banks loaded up on long-duration Treasuries and mortgages at par that now trade at 55–75 cents, parked in HTM to avoid recognizing losses that would breach Basel capital rules, effectively freezing their capital and forcing them to lend only to the most…
“banks will do almost anything to avoid doing that”
90d -3.1%
Michael Green: The Bond Market Is Hiding A Banking Crisis
2026-05-27
Commodities Broad
bearish
Wealthion · video
Falling global population growth (peak around 2035), continued agricultural productivity gains, and emerging protein substitution technologies point to structural surplus and declining relevance of food commodities in consumer spending baskets
“I find it really hard to get super excited about commodities”
90d -3.2%
Broken Market Signals Are Warning of the “End Game”
Surging demand from data centers and AI infrastructure will drive sustained energy consumption growth, and nuclear will ultimately emerge as a primary beneficiary of machine energy demand
“energy infrastructure and in particular I'd highlight areas like nuclear which will ultimately emerge from this”
90d +9.7%
Broken Market Signals Are Warning of the “End Game”
2026-05-17
TIPS
bullish
Michael Green · video
Passive flows have crowded capital into equities while neglecting TIPS, which now offer a 2.7% real yield for 30 years — nearly half the S&P's historical ~5% real return but with a government guarantee vs. the looming passive-flow reversal risk
“long-dated TIPS, for example, offering now a 2.7% sort of return for 30 years. I people don't understand how incredible that is”
The Giant Mindless Robot Driving Stocks Is Starting to Falter | Mike Green
Said again: 2026-07-08 (Michael Green)
Mechanical 401k and passive fund inflows continue regardless of macro news, creating a persistent bid that keeps equities elevated until unemployment rises enough to reduce contribution flows
“the mindless bid coming from the passive robot where money is flowing into 401ks on a continuous basis”
90d +3.5%
MacroVoices #532 Mike Green: Record Mechanical Flows
2026-05-14
High Yield
bullish
Macro Voices · video
At elevated asset prices investors should rotate into income-generating instruments like hedged high yield that offer protection against credit spread widening, which is increasingly likely as passive bifurcation creates pockets of credit deterioration
“they should be taking advantage of these high prices to rotate into areas in which income can be generated”
90d +1.2%
MacroVoices #532 Mike Green: Record Mechanical Flows
Said again: 2026-07-28 (Michael Green)
Nvidia's margin expansion from ~40% to ~75% gross margins has been artificially sustained by vendor financing that lets customers avoid price negotiation, mirroring Cisco's 1999 dynamic, making earnings quality poor and the stock overvalued
“Nvidia has benefited from the inability of their customers to negotiate on price because they're receiving financing from Nvidia”
90d -3.8%
Mike Green: Why A 1987-Style Crash Is Now Almost Inevitable — Here's the Math
Said again: 2026-07-08 (CNBC International)
Traditional DCF analysis shows ~75% of current market value rests in terminal value assumptions rather than actual cash flows, implying the S&P 500 is overvalued by more than 75% with fair value below 2,000
“the market is overvalued by more than 75%... an S&P somewhere below 2,000”
90d -5.5%
Mike Green: Why A 1987-Style Crash Is Now Almost Inevitable — Here's the Math
Said again: 2026-05-27 (Wealthion), 2026-07-08 (Michael Green)
XIV and SVXY had come to dominate over 70% of daily VIX futures volume, creating a single-underlier concentration that made a discontinuous crash mathematically near-certain, validated by Volmageddon outcome
“we took about a quarter-billion-dollar position in put options on SVXY and predicted that this event was going to happen”
90d +26.4%
Mike Green: Why A 1987-Style Crash Is Now Almost Inevitable — Here's the Math
Boomers are beginning to be forced sellers (assisted living, mortality) while younger buyers are priced out and over-leveraged, setting up a Japan/China-style long-term price decline as demographic asset hoarding reverses
“I actually just bought a property off of a boomer who unexpectedly had to go into assisted living and I bought it for 40% below the list”
90d -8.2%
Mike Green: Why A 1987-Style Crash Is Now Almost Inevitable — Here's the Math
Passive index mechanics create a structural ~40% underweight in longer-duration bonds as falling prices reduce their index weight and therefore their share of new inflows, producing neglect and an opportunity to earn nearly 5% on 30-year Treasuries at…
“people are ignoring the opportunities that they currently have to generate nearly 5% returns on US 30-year Treasuries”
90d -2.1% · 180d -2.5%
Is Passive Investing Distorting the Market? | Interview with Mike Green From Simplify
Said again: 2026-05-17 (Michael Green), 2026-05-27 (Wealthion)
Bitcoin's enforced scarcity is a structural flaw, not a feature—in a growing world, a finite supply creates punitive entry terms for new participants, accelerates wealth concentration (rising Gini coefficient verified in his 2017 simulation), and Bitcoin is…
“It's largely being used as a speculative digital number on a screen.”
90d -13.3% · 180d +9.1%
Why Passive Investing Has Broken The Price in Markets | Michael Green
Apple has not grown earnings for 3-4 years, has outsourced AI to Google, has seen nearly every post-iPhone product fail, and has no visible future growth, yet trades at an all-time high multiple inflated by mandatory passive-fund inflows rather than…
“This is a company that should be trading at a low multiple. Instead it's trading at a remarkably high multiple.”
90d -13.9% · 180d -15.9%
Why Passive Investing Has Broken The Price in Markets | Michael Green
Ad-supported AI will displace paid-subscription models like ChatGPT Pro, entrenching Google's dominance as it replaces traditional search — the vast majority of consumers will never pay $200/month for AI
“you're just going to see ad supported AI it's really going to replace the traditional search businesses”
90d +3.5% · 180d -1.2%
US Has Under-Invested in Required AI Infrastructure, Says Michael Green
2026-01-29
CDX
bullish
Michael Green · video
High yield provides 25-30% annual endogenous cash flow (coupons + maturities) that is independent of passive-driven secondary buyers, and the equity-like credit-spread sensitivity allows a built-in cheap hedge against drawdowns — insulating returns from the…
“as a high yield investor, you typically receive between 25 and 30% of your fund in any given year paid back to you in the form of cash”
90d -2.4% · 180d -4.1%
Michael Green on the Extreme Risk Facing the S&P 500 | In the Money with Amber Kanwar
Said again: 2026-03-10 (Michael Green)
China is redirecting trade surpluses away from US Treasuries into gold following Russian reserves confiscation, joining Western retail investors chasing dollar-debasement narratives — surging inflows into a fixed-supply inelastic market forces prices higher…
“if China is redirecting trade surpluses into gold...that's going to have a huge impact on gold”
90d -15.8% · 180d -25.5%
Michael Green on the Extreme Risk Facing the S&P 500 | In the Money with Amber Kanwar
2026-01-29
YGLD
bullish
Michael Green · video
Selling call options on gold monetizes the elevated implied volatility premium inflated by retail demand for levered gold exposure, generating income that cushions any drawdown while participating in the secular gold bull driven by structural flows
“YGLD is gold yield that's generated by selling call options on gold itself”
90d -30.7% · 180d -42.2%
Michael Green on the Extreme Risk Facing the S&P 500 | In the Money with Amber Kanwar
2026-01-29
HART
owns
Michael Green · video
A managed futures strategy force-biased long hard commodities (not soft/food), using trend-following plus carry and cycle-fundamental filters to systematically express the electricity and infrastructure commodity secular shortage thesis without relying on…
“we have effectively forced the system to be long commodities”
Michael Green on the Extreme Risk Facing the S&P 500 | In the Money with Amber Kanwar
Passive investing has created near-perfectly inelastic demand for large caps via flow-driven multiplier effects disconnected from fundamentals; a white paper with Hari Krishnan models an inevitable endogenous volatility buildup that will cause a catastrophic…
“within four to five years will hit levels in which it is inevitable that the markets will inevitably crash”
90d -4.9% · 180d -10.1%
1-19-26 The Metric that Matters - The Michael Green Interview
Said again: 2026-01-29 (Michael Green), 2026-02-14 (Michael Green)
Passive inflows have created Ponzi-like valuation dynamics (index at 3× sales, leaders at 5–15× sales) where the exit price depends entirely on what the next passive buyer pays, not on underlying cash flows, making expected real returns near zero and a…
“if you own shares in the S&P 500 ETF, you own a speculative ticket towards prices going higher”
90d -6.1% · 180d -7.5% · 1y -17.7%
Michael Green: The Hidden Ponzi Bubble, Markets Partying Like ’99, & Where To Invest Now
2025-07-23
TIPS
bullish
Wealthion · video
30-year TIPS currently yield ~2.6% real—equivalent to the full nominal rate available throughout the entire 2010s—making them a generational return in a high-quality instrument that mathematically converges to par, while passive bond indices structurally…
“you're picking up a real rate that is equivalent to the nominal rate that was available over the past decade”
Michael Green: The Hidden Ponzi Bubble, Markets Partying Like ’99, & Where To Invest Now
2025-07-23
AI DATA CENTER / CAPEX INFRASTRUCTURE
bearish
Wealthion · video
AI infrastructure buildout is repeating the dot-com fiber-overbuilding pattern—efficiency breakthroughs (e.g., DeepSeek) will compress demand for raw compute just as switching amplification made 25 years of over-laid fiber redundant, leaving massive stranded…
“there's an awful lot of excess investment that is playing out right now”
Michael Green: The Hidden Ponzi Bubble, Markets Partying Like ’99, & Where To Invest Now
Tariffs structurally reduce the outflow of dollars (fewer dollars available for China to recycle into gold or foreign assets), creating dollar scarcity that should push the dollar higher regardless of current consensus dollar-bearishness
“almost everything suggests that we are about to enter into a period of dollar strength”
90d +3.2% · 180d +4.0% · 1y +9.1%
Michael Green: The Hidden Ponzi Bubble, Markets Partying Like ’99, & Where To Invest Now
Mandatory 401k auto-enrollment defaults new workers into passive Target Date Funds that mechanically buy the largest stocks regardless of valuation, creating momentum-reinforcing inflows that push prices higher until retirement withdrawals structurally exceed…
“as long as people are contributing to the system on net it goes higher — it's just built into the system”
90d -9.8% · 180d +4.9% · 1y +15.3%
Passive Investing Poses Systemic Economic & Market Risks | Michael Green
2025-01-24
China Equities
bearish
Wealthion · video
Despite appearing fundamentally cheap, Chinese equities carry a high risk of becoming investment-stranded assets — as Russian assets did — if geopolitical tensions cause the US to exclude them from global capital markets
“places like China appear very very cheap on a fundamental basis but they run a very high risk of exactly what we saw in Russia”
90d -8.9% · 180d -26.6% · 1y -29.2%
Passive Investing Poses Systemic Economic & Market Risks | Michael Green
A fixed-supply asset in a growing-population world concentrates wealth away from new entrants and, critically, eliminates the monetary flexibility governments need to respond to crises like invasions or pandemics, making it unworkable as a functional currency…
“it is a system that is fantastic for number go up but completely impossible as a workable system for currency”
90d +10.4% · 180d -13.3% · 1y +15.0%
Passive Investing Poses Systemic Economic & Market Risks | Michael Green
Passive inflows that artificially propped markets are turning negative as unemployment rises from years of manipulated labor market data, leaving no natural buyer at current valuations once flows reverse
“we just don't know who the natural buyer at anywhere near these valuations is”
90d -7.0% · 180d -13.7% · 1y -19.9%
U.S. Economy "Almost Certainly" Already In Recession, Argues Veteran Portfolio Manager Mike Green
2024-08-02
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Growth scare and imminent recession trigger the portfolio rebalancing channel — bond rallies force fixed-allocation funds to sell equities and buy bonds, reinforcing the rally as the Fed shifts from fighting inflation to supporting growth
“today is exactly why you want to buy a bond”
90d -5.3% · 180d -8.9% · 1y -6.5%
U.S. Economy "Almost Certainly" Already In Recession, Argues Veteran Portfolio Manager Mike Green
2024-08-02
RUSSELL 2000
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
The recent small-cap outperformance was a false dawn caused by hedge funds unwinding long-Mag7/short-Russell pairs, not genuine economic broadening, with meaningful further unwind still to come as that crowded trade unwinds
“this is a completely false Dawn because what you're actually watching is portfolios being Unwound due to a change in Risk characteristics”
U.S. Economy "Almost Certainly" Already In Recession, Argues Veteran Portfolio Manager Mike Green
2024-02-22
long Big Tech / short Big Tech
hedge
Excess Returns · video
Passive-inflated equity markets face an impending credit cycle shock from the high-yield maturity wall; convex options positioning on S&P/NASDAQ captures upside while limiting tail-risk downside better than outright long equity
“one of the opportunities that exists in this very low environment is to enter into truly convex positions”
The Risks of The Rise of Passive Investing with Mike Green
2023-08-14
Commercial Real Estate
bearish
Michael Green · video
Office buildings in SF, Chicago, and NYC have effectively zero equity value as variable-rate commercial loans reset at today's rates, making the sector deeply insolvent before the refinancing wave even crests in 2024-2025
“the equity value of real estate in the commercial sector Office Buildings is just totally gone”
90d +8.6% · 180d -4.2% · 1y -15.0%
Challenges of the High-Debt Economy | Michael Green
2023-01-16
long USTS / short USTS
spread
Michael Green · video
Fed's volatility and erosion of the fed put destroyed a key duration-buyer base, making an outright long-duration bet risky while a back-end steepener (long 30yr vs shorter long-end) captures eventual normalization with less exposure
“I've adopted a steepener at the back end as compared to an outright long front end”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
Keeping it Simple | Ep.20: Secular, Cyclical... It's ll a fubar fugazi!
2023-01-16
Em Equities
bullish
Michael Green · video
EMs are at an early beneficial stage of passive-flow penetration that historically supports equity appreciation, and now exhibit lower realized volatility than the S&P 500 — a structural advantage not yet priced in
“longer term it's an area of key focus for me”
90d -2.9% · 180d +0.8% · 1y -4.3%
Keeping it Simple | Ep.20: Secular, Cyclical... It's ll a fubar fugazi!
2022-06-21
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Chris Cole · video
The US economy cannot sustain rates above roughly 3% given collapsing household formation, demographic stagnation, and the italianization of the labor force, so the bond market has correctly priced in terminal rate and bonds are near a floor
“I don't think the US economy can handle higher than that”
90d -2.0% · 180d -2.9% · 1y -3.3%
Keeping it Simple on the Road | Ep. 2 I'll Take Two, Utah... Two!
Bitcoin requires perpetual network-maintenance fees with no intrinsic store-of-value (unlike gold), is marketed via cult-like 'only good news' suppression rather than fundamental analysis, and behaves as a high-beta speculative asset that gets crushed in…
“crypto winter is approaching not that it's in the rearview mirror”
90d +44.1% · 180d +52.5% · 1y +29.9%
Michael Green & Keith McCullough | Hedgeye Investing Summit Spring 2022
Institutional call overwriting on Apple compressed put premiums, creating cheap downside optionality, while the iPhone replacement cycle is extending to 3-4 years and inventory pressure is building into a profit squeeze
“you could pick up optionality to the downside in apple quite cheaply we were fortunate to do that”
90d +6.0% · 180d +8.0% · 1y -1.2%
Michael Green & Keith McCullough | Hedgeye Investing Summit Spring 2022
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