c8alpha
Investors / stance tracking

What Michael Howell is saying

Liquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital

99 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-28, most recently 2026-08-27. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Michael Howell's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Michael Howell is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.

99
tracked stances
29
themes
7
side flips
2026-08-27
last heard
Returns  90d +3.6% (n=70) · 180d +7.2% (n=48) · 1y +21.2% (n=30)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

USTS — bullish2026-07-27 → bearish2026-08-11
USTS — bearish2025-10-08 → bullish2026-06-26
USD — bearish2025-10-08 → bullish2026-06-26
BITCOIN — bullish2025-10-17 → bearish2026-06-03
SPX — bullish2024-09-18 → bearish2026-06-03
USD — bullish2025-01-22 → bearish2025-10-08
USD — bearish2024-08-28 → bullish2025-01-22

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
GOLD1717 bullish2026-08-27
BITCOIN126 bullish / 6 bearish2026-08-27
Long Dur Treasuries1212 bearish2026-08-21
Commodities Broad88 bullish2026-08-11
USTS82 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral2026-08-13
SPX51 bullish / 2 bearish / 2 neutral2026-08-13

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-08-27 GOLD bullish Michael Howell · video
PBOC liquidity injections are the primary driver of the gold price as China must devalue debt internally rather than default, and with crypto banned the only domestic outlet is gold via the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which has become the marginal global price…
“China continues to print money... the Shanghai Gold Exchange is really the marginal price setter”
Bitcoin Is About To Blindside Every Investor [Things Are Just Getting Started] | Michael Howell
2026-08-27 BITCOIN bearish Michael Howell · video
The 65-month global liquidity cycle and the Fed sub-cycle both project a trough around early-to-mid 2027, so 2026 offers no meaningful tailwind for Bitcoin and investors should wait for the cycle turn rather than adding now
“I don't think 2026 is going to be a great year for investing in Bitcoin”
Bitcoin Is About To Blindside Every Investor [Things Are Just Getting Started] | Michael Howell
2026-08-21 GOLD bullish Michael Howell · video
PBOC balance sheet expansion is the primary driver of gold prices as China devalues the yuan internally behind capital controls, with the Shanghai exchange as the dominant marginal pricer — making gold's low already established.
“gold is a lot more sensitive to what's happening in China and People's Bank of China liquidity”
What Bessent Is REALLY Doing With Treasury Buybacks | Michael Howell
2026-08-21 Long Dur Treasuries bearish Michael Howell · video
US nominal GDP growth is at its fastest pace since the early 1980s and bond yields must eventually converge to nominal GDP growth — with the 10-year currently below 5% versus ~8% yields during comparable early-1980s growth, significant further repricing…
“bond yields have got to rise. There's no question about there's no getting away from that fact”
What Bessent Is REALLY Doing With Treasury Buybacks | Michael Howell
2026-08-21 BITCOIN bearish Michael Howell · video
Bitcoin is far more sensitive to global liquidity than gold, and global liquidity faces sustained downward pressure because a strong real economy competes for capital — meaning Bitcoin's low may not yet be in, despite long-term monetary debasement tailwinds.
“Bitcoin is much much more sensitive to global liquidity and the pressures on global liquidity are downwards”
What Bessent Is REALLY Doing With Treasury Buybacks | Michael Howell
2026-08-13 OIL bullish Macro Voices · video
The gold/oil ratio is statistically mean-reverting with no long-run trend since 1970; if gold is supported near $4,000/oz and the historical 20x ratio holds, fair-value oil is near $200/barrel, and even a conservative 30x ratio implies $135/barrel — well…
“I think oil prices are going to go up significantly”
MacroVoices #545 Michael Howell: Warsh vs. The Markets
2026-08-13 SPX bearish Macro Voices · video
The global liquidity cycle has peaked and is rolling over, and the setup is analogous to late 2021/early 2022 when tightening monetary conditions drove a 25% S&P decline and 75% Bitcoin decline, making elevated beta exposure increasingly dangerous
“we're treading a path which looks remarkably like late 2021, early 2022”
MacroVoices #545 Michael Howell: Warsh vs. The Markets
2026-08-13 USTS bearish Macro Voices · video
Nominal GDP growth running at 6–8% driven by fiscal spending, the AI boom, and deglobalization capex historically aligns with the 10-year yield, implying the 10-year could test 6% as the Fed is eventually forced to hike despite political pressure to cut
“it's not impossible to see the 10-year bond testing 6% yields in the not too distant future”
MacroVoices #545 Michael Howell: Warsh vs. The Markets
2026-08-13 SILVER bullish Macro Voices · video
Silver is a high-beta precious metals play on the same PBOC liquidity expansion driving gold, and early signs of silver beginning to outperform gold signal that sentiment is returning to the broader precious metals complex and confirm the gold bull thesis
“whether silver, which is a high beta play, is rising faster than the gold price”
MacroVoices #545 Michael Howell: Warsh vs. The Markets
2026-08-13 ENERGY owns Macro Voices · video
Oil prices are set to rise significantly as the gold/oil ratio mean-reverts toward its long-run historical average of approximately 20x; with gold anchored near $4,000/oz, that ratio implies substantially higher oil prices, and commodity demand remains strong…
“I'm very invested in energy stocks because I think this is a great area to be in”
MacroVoices #545 Michael Howell: Warsh vs. The Markets
2026-08-13 BITCOIN bearish Macro Voices · video
Crypto is driven by global and Fed liquidity rather than PBOC liquidity, so as global liquidity fades and the Fed is forced toward tightening, crypto faces medium-term headwinds and will underperform gold, which uniquely benefits from Chinese monetary…
“crypto is under a cloud and gold has been outperforming”
MacroVoices #545 Michael Howell: Warsh vs. The Markets
2026-08-13 GOLD bullish Macro Voices · video
China's PBOC is re-expanding liquidity to devalue yuan internally and erode its historic debt burden, and since crypto is illegal in China, gold is the primary domestic monetary hedge capturing that bid; additionally, Western sovereign debt monetization…
“I would think that would be pretty close to the top of my list of conviction trades”
MacroVoices #545 Michael Howell: Warsh vs. The Markets
2026-08-13 INDUSTRIALS bullish Macro Voices · video
Commodity markets historically dominate around the peak and downswing of the global liquidity cycle as money flows from financial assets into the real economy, and China's renewed liquidity expansion will add further fuel to commodity demand on top of already…
“commodity markets, they tend to be dominant around the peak of the cycle”
MacroVoices #545 Michael Howell: Warsh vs. The Markets
2026-08-11 USTS bearish Michael Howell · video
Nominal GDP running 7–8% is structurally incompatible with 10-year yields at 4.7%; Treasury front-end issuance is private-sector QE that works until it doesn't — Japan's 50bps-to-3% move is the cautionary template
“nominal GDP growth running at something like 7 to 8% and that is incompatible with bond yields currently at 4.7%”
Michael Howell: Liquidity Has Turned, Low Quality Returns Ahead for Stocks, and Real Driver of Gold
2026-08-11 BITCOIN bearish Michael Howell · video
Crypto is highly liquidity-sensitive and the global liquidity cycle has peaked; Chinese retail — a major source of demand — is banned from crypto trading, redirecting that monetary-inflation demand to gold instead
“cryptocurrencies under a cloud because they're very liquidity sensitive”
Michael Howell: Liquidity Has Turned, Low Quality Returns Ahead for Stocks, and Real Driver of Gold
2026-08-11 Commodities Broad bullish Michael Howell · video
Strong nominal GDP growth is pulling liquidity out of financial assets and into the real economy, fueling physical demand; commodities are the beneficiary of this late-cycle regime shift and will be the first to signal when the economic boom is ending
“watch commodity markets because commodity markets are telling us really how long this economic boom will sustain”
Michael Howell: Liquidity Has Turned, Low Quality Returns Ahead for Stocks, and Real Driver of Gold
2026-08-11 GOLD bullish Michael Howell · video
People's Bank of China balance sheet expansion is the marginal driver of gold prices — Chinese retail is locked out of crypto, funneling monetary-inflation demand into gold, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange now setting the world's marginal price
“Will gold go up more in the medium term? Absolutely sure. I'm sure it is”
Michael Howell: Liquidity Has Turned, Low Quality Returns Ahead for Stocks, and Real Driver of Gold
2026-08-11 SPX neutral Michael Howell · video
Liquidity cycle peaked in Q3–Q4 2025, compressing PE multiples as rising yields lift the cost of capital even while earnings remain supported — entering a speculation regime of choppy, low-quality returns with more downside risk than upside
“I still think the best view for this year is that you've got generally a range-bound market”
Michael Howell: Liquidity Has Turned, Low Quality Returns Ahead for Stocks, and Real Driver of Gold
2026-08-05 GOLD bullish Michael Howell · video
China's PBOC restarted liquidity injection after deliberately pausing March 2 to cool import demand; renewed domestic money-printing to escape debt deflation drives Chinese savers into gold as an inflation hedge, pushing bullion higher
“the People's Bank of China drives the gold bullion market”
China Shut the Money Tap March 2. Michael Howell Says That's Why Gold Stalled.
2026-08-05 Long Dur Treasuries bearish Michael Howell · video
Heavy short-end government issuance absorbed by banks constitutes private-sector money creation, driving nominal GDP far above what bond markets are pricing and making appreciably higher yields inevitable
“bond yields, you know, could rise appreciably”
China Shut the Money Tap March 2. Michael Howell Says That's Why Gold Stalled.
2026-07-27 USTS bullish Michael Howell · video
As the liquidity cycle peaks and begins contracting, bonds progressively replace equities and commodities; the entry point is short-duration debt first, and the contrarian case is strengthened by the Bank of America survey showing bond allocations at…
“When everyone believes the story is negative, it normally flips to being positive”
Michael Howell Global Liquidity: How Money Flows Move Asset Prices | Market Cycles Report 7/7/26
2026-07-27 GOLD bullish Michael Howell · video
Governments globally are monetizing debt to manage refinancing burdens, and gold is the most reliable barometer and hedge against that ongoing monetization process.
“Gold is a great, great barometer or hedge against that monetization process”
Michael Howell Global Liquidity: How Money Flows Move Asset Prices | Market Cycles Report 7/7/26
2026-07-27 Commodities Broad bullish Michael Howell · video
At the peak of the ~65-month global liquidity cycle, liquidity moves from financial markets into the real economy, driving demand for commodities, which historically outperform all other asset classes during this transition phase.
“Around the peak of the cycle, you want to be commodity based”
Michael Howell Global Liquidity: How Money Flows Move Asset Prices | Market Cycles Report 7/7/26
2026-07-27 WHEAT bullish Michael Howell · video
Late liquidity cycle dynamics push money from financial markets into the real economy, supporting commodity prices broadly, with wheat among the specific beneficiaries Howell names.
“I think higher wheat prices. Generally commodity markets are going to do well”
Michael Howell Global Liquidity: How Money Flows Move Asset Prices | Market Cycles Report 7/7/26
2026-07-27 long EUROPEAN AND JAPANESE EQUITIES / short SPX pair Michael Howell · video
US share buybacks are slowing as the capex boom absorbs corporate cash, while buybacks are accelerating in Europe and Japan, making non-US equities a better allocation on a forward returns basis.
“Buybacks in Europe or in Japan are actually beginning to increase — better to diversify out of America”
Michael Howell Global Liquidity: How Money Flows Move Asset Prices | Market Cycles Report 7/7/26
2026-07-22 Long Dur Treasuries bearish Michael Howell · video
US nominal GDP is running at approximately 9-10%, implying 10-year Treasury yields are severely suppressed below equilibrium by Fed and Treasury intervention; when the support fails — as Japan's YCC unwind added over 200bps — yields will overshoot sharply…
“US Treasury yields are well below where they should be”
Global Liquidity Has Peaked: What Happens to Bitcoin? | Michael Howell
2026-07-22 long GOLD / long BITCOIN basket Michael Howell · video
Western governments have no exit from exponentially compounding debt except monetization, making gold and Bitcoin the essential long-term insurance against the coming 'great debasement' of fiat currencies — the same dynamic China is already executing…
“if you want an insurance policy against it, you just got to own these monetary inflation hedges”
Global Liquidity Has Peaked: What Happens to Bitcoin? | Michael Howell
2026-07-19 Commodities Broad bullish Michael Howell · video
The global liquidity cycle is currently in the 'speculation phase' near its peak, which historically produces strong commodity outperformance, and Howell confirms both commodity strength and bear yield-curve flattening are 'definitely coming out' right now.
“strong performance from commodities... both those two factors are definitely coming out”
Why Global Liquidity May Be Turning Against Markets | With Michael Howell
2026-07-19 GLOBAL EQUITIES / RISK ASSETS bearish Michael Howell · video
The global liquidity cycle peaked in Q4 2025 and momentum has been decelerating since, which mechanically causes returns on risk assets to fall and their volatility to rise, degrading the quality of holding them.
“not only do returns on risk assets fall, but actually the underlying volatility of those instruments picks up”
Why Global Liquidity May Be Turning Against Markets | With Michael Howell
2026-06-26 Long Dur Treasuries bearish Michael Howell · video
US NGDP running at 6-7% implies risk-adjusted 10-year yields must rise to approximately 6%, well above current levels, and the liquidity cycle inflection is driving a bear flattening of the yield curve
“you're looking at a yield base of probably about 5.5%, that's higher than where we are now”
Michael Howell: Liquidity Has Peaked, Here's What Happens Next
2026-06-26 USD bullish Michael Howell · video
Hawkish new Fed Chair Walsh may allow monetary conditions to tighten without raising rates, while strong NGDP growth and sustained capital inflows support the dollar, which is still within its post-GFC uptrend channel
“the dollar is very much key to the next few months and my guess would be that it strengthens”
Michael Howell: Liquidity Has Peaked, Here's What Happens Next
2026-06-26 CASH bullish Michael Howell · video
The global liquidity cycle is inflecting downward, making cash increasingly attractive on a risk-return basis relative to equities and fixed income as liquidity conditions tighten
“cash is likely to be on a risk return basis an increasingly attractive asset to hold as liquidity conditions tighten”
Michael Howell: Liquidity Has Peaked, Here's What Happens Next
2026-06-26 GOLD bullish Michael Howell · video
PBOC is re-liquefying after its March pause (driven by Iran tensions), which historically maps one-for-one to gold in RMB; and Western sovereign debt monetization — the 'great debasement' — has not yet started, implying a further secular leg higher.
“the great debasement is still to come because of the future debt problem of the West”
Massive Liquidity Shock Coming; Brace For 'Wrecking Ball' Warns Economist | Michael Howell
2026-06-26 Long Dur Treasuries bearish Michael Howell · video
Nominal GDP growth is running at 6-7% and historically the 10-year yield tracks nominal GDP; with embedded inflation and a strong real economy, the 10-year has a target of roughly 6%, implying significant further yield rise and price losses in long bonds.
“you're looking at something like a target of about 6% on the 10-year bond”
Massive Liquidity Shock Coming; Brace For 'Wrecking Ball' Warns Economist | Michael Howell
2026-06-26 USTS bullish Michael Howell · video
In a tightening, higher-inflation environment, short-duration government debt offers attractive nominal yields with minimal duration risk, making it a defensible liquid holding versus equities or long bonds.
“start moving towards shorter duration government debt — you're getting pretty nice yields on that”
Massive Liquidity Shock Coming; Brace For 'Wrecking Ball' Warns Economist | Michael Howell
2026-06-26 BITCOIN bearish Michael Howell · video
Bitcoin tracks Fed liquidity conditions almost one-for-one, and with global/Fed liquidity growth slowing, Bitcoin is expected to continue declining as a direct consequence.
“if Fed liquidity is slowing down, you'd expect Bitcoin to suffer, and it is suffering”
Massive Liquidity Shock Coming; Brace For 'Wrecking Ball' Warns Economist | Michael Howell
2026-06-26 Commodities Broad bullish Michael Howell · video
Embedded inflation, strong real-economy demand crowding out financial assets, and deglobalization-driven duplication of supply chains and defense capex globally point to sustained upward pressure on commodity prices in the medium term.
“start thinking about getting some protection from commodities if inflation is an embedded issue”
Massive Liquidity Shock Coming; Brace For 'Wrecking Ball' Warns Economist | Michael Howell
2026-06-26 USD bullish Michael Howell · video
The dollar has been in a structural uptrend since the GFC, underpinned by capital flows from international banks and insurers chasing US assets (especially tech) post-regulatory changes; Fed tightening expectations reinforce the trend further.
“Warsh has indicated he wants the markets to tighten, and that really means a stronger dollar”
Massive Liquidity Shock Coming; Brace For 'Wrecking Ball' Warns Economist | Michael Howell
2026-06-26 SPX neutral Michael Howell · video
Authorities will prevent aggressive enough tightening to crash equities in 2026, producing a range-bound, volatile market, but progressive liquidity tightening makes the risk/reward increasingly asymmetric to the downside into year-end and 2027.
“what you'd see from Wall Street in 2026 would broadly speaking be a range-bound market”
Massive Liquidity Shock Coming; Brace For 'Wrecking Ball' Warns Economist | Michael Howell
2026-06-26 long GOLD / short BITCOIN pair Michael Howell · video
Prefer gold over Bitcoin because China (PBOC) is the marginal pricer of gold and may restart liquidity injections, while Bitcoin has no such anchor and faces pure US-tightening headwinds
“I would be more willing to be buying gold here than Bitcoin”
Michael Howell: Liquidity Has Peaked, Here's What Happens Next
2026-06-03 Long Dur Treasuries bearish Wealthion · video
Nominal GDP growth running at 7-8% implies long-term treasury yields should converge much higher toward that level, creating sustained upward pressure on long-end yields
“The US long bond is certainly around 5%... we're talking about prospectively much much higher US long-term yields”
90d +2.9%
Michael Howell: AI Will Fuel Inflation, And Markets Aren’t Ready
2026-06-03 Commodities Broad bullish Wealthion · video
A 1970s-style series of unconnected supply shocks across energy, food, and materials are converging into a broad commodity inflation cycle, with soft commodities specifically primed to move higher
“Soft commodities are you know primed to move a lot higher here”
90d +5.4%
Michael Howell: AI Will Fuel Inflation, And Markets Aren’t Ready
2026-06-03 SPX bearish Wealthion · video
Rising inflation and elevated Treasury yields will compress PE multiples, causing equity market derating even as earnings (E) remain supported by strong economic activity
“The market should be derating in anticipation of higher inflation and in response to high yields we've seen in the Treasury market”
90d -1.3%
Michael Howell: AI Will Fuel Inflation, And Markets Aren’t Ready
2026-06-03 AI/TECHNOLOGY EQUITIES (SPECULATIVE PHASE) bearish Wealthion · video
AI-driven capex boom is inflationary in the short term which pressures PE multiples, and the market is in a late-cycle speculative phase with elevated volatility ahead of a turbulence phase where losses are likely
“Whatever the merits of AI, in the short term it's inflationary for the economy. There's no question about that.”
Michael Howell: AI Will Fuel Inflation, And Markets Aren’t Ready
2026-06-03 GOLD bullish Wealthion · video
China's structural need to underpin the yuan with gold collateral and domestic money printing to devalue debt means persistent Chinese government and retail buying will continue to drive gold prices higher over the long term
“The big driver of gold has not been what has been happening from the Fed or from the ECB. It's basically been China.”
90d -2.7%
Michael Howell: AI Will Fuel Inflation, And Markets Aren’t Ready
2026-06-03 BITCOIN bearish Wealthion · video
Crypto prices lag global liquidity conditions by approximately 13 weeks, and the current rollover in liquidity growth predicts further crypto price declines ahead
“Crypto is a fantastic barometer of underlying liquidity conditions and liquidity is predicting what's happening to crypto”
90d -20.9%
Michael Howell: AI Will Fuel Inflation, And Markets Aren’t Ready
2026-06-03 USTS neutral Wealthion · video
Carry on 5-year bonds at current yield levels is sufficient to offset likely yield increases, providing downside protection as liquidity cycle rolls over and volatility rises
“The carry you're getting on mid-duration bonds, 5-year bonds, is probably enough to protect your downside”
Michael Howell: AI Will Fuel Inflation, And Markets Aren’t Ready
2026-06-02 GOLD bullish Julia La Roche Show · video
US monetary inflation (debt growing 7-8% p.a. per CBO, monetized via bank bill-buying) erodes real wealth and gold — having outperformed Wall Street since 2000 (~15x vs ~6-7x) — is the correct monetary-inflation hedge, not a CPI hedge
“If you want to protect your wealth, think about monetary inflation — that's what matters”
90d -0.9%
Howell: Speculation Ending, Turbulence Ahead, Money Moving Real Economy, & Why Fed Could Hike
2026-06-02 Long Dur Treasuries bearish Julia La Roche Show · video
Nominal GDP running 7-8% p.a. is inconsistent with 10-year yields near 5%; if that spread compresses via rising yields, a 100bps move costs ~7% on a 10-year and ~20% on a 30-year — far exceeding the coupon
“A 10-year bond — if you get a 100 basis point increase you're going to lose about 7%”
90d +2.9%
Howell: Speculation Ending, Turbulence Ahead, Money Moving Real Economy, & Why Fed Could Hike
2026-06-02 OIL bullish Julia La Roche Show · video
The 60-year gold/oil ratio historically averages ~20x; with gold at $4,000-5,000/oz the ratio-implied oil price is materially above spot, signaling oil is cheap on a relative-value basis, compounded by strong nominal GDP and Iranian supply tensions
“Divide [gold price] by 20 — what's the oil price? Over 200 bucks a barrel”
90d -2.6%
Howell: Speculation Ending, Turbulence Ahead, Money Moving Real Economy, & Why Fed Could Hike
2026-06-02 FED FUNDS RATE / SHORT US RATES bullish Julia La Roche Show · video
The US economy is running strong nominal GDP (~7-8%) with persistent monetary inflation; the consensus expects rate cuts but Howell argues the Fed will have to hike within 12 months, making front-end rate hike expectations a contrarian trade
“The Federal Reserve has to raise interest rates in the next 12 months”
Howell: Speculation Ending, Turbulence Ahead, Money Moving Real Economy, & Why Fed Could Hike
2026-06-02 Commodities Broad bullish Julia La Roche Show · video
Liquidity is rotating from financial markets into the real economy, which historically benefits commodity markets; the cycle checklist (strong commodities, bearish curve flattening, narrowing market breadth) confirms a late-cycle commodity bull
“Strong commodities, liquidity rolling over and a bearish flattening are three boxes to tick”
90d +3.9%
Howell: Speculation Ending, Turbulence Ahead, Money Moving Real Economy, & Why Fed Could Hike
2026-06-02 USTS neutral Julia La Roche Show · video
At current yields, mid-duration (2-5yr) treasuries carry low enough duration risk that a rate rise would not exceed the coupon, making them an acceptable fixed-income holding in a turbulence-hedged core portfolio
“Between the two-five year area at current yields you're probably okay — duration is sufficiently low”
Howell: Speculation Ending, Turbulence Ahead, Money Moving Real Economy, & Why Fed Could Hike
2026-06-02 ENERGY bullish Julia La Roche Show · video
Late-cycle equity rotation favors real-economy sectors; cheap oil relative to gold and a strong nominal-GDP backdrop make energy the preferred late-cycle equity area over broad market exposure
“Energy stocks to my mind look pretty attractive right now”
90d +11.1%
Howell: Speculation Ending, Turbulence Ahead, Money Moving Real Economy, & Why Fed Could Hike
2026-03-24 GLOBAL LIQUIDITY / RISK ASSETS BROADLY bearish Lacy Hunt · video
Global liquidity is at a cyclical inflection point turning down as money flows from financial markets into the real economy, and asset markets price inflections at the margin, making lower asset prices ahead highly probable
“what we're facing now is tightening liquidity conditions. That's basically a fact”
Here's The Latest Outlook From Lacy Hunt, Ed Dowd, Lyn Alden + A Dozen Other Experts
2026-03-02 long GOLD / short BITCOIN pair Michael Howell · video
Gold and Bitcoin diverge near-term because Chinese liquidity expansion (~$1T/year PBOC injection) can only flow into gold (Chinese residents banned from crypto), simultaneously Western liquidity contraction crushes Bitcoin; gold is also independently…
“a lot of the Chinese liquidity is going to be funneled into the gold market, not the crypto market”
90d -11.5% · 180d -15.1%
The Downcycle Begins, with Michael Howell, Founder at CrossBorder Capital
2025-10-17 China Equities bullish Forward Guidance · video
PBOC has injected ~$1T USD equivalent into Chinese financial markets over 12 months to reflate asset prices and rescue underwater residential real estate (which serves as retirement savings); Shanghai stocks are already responding and more liquidity is needed…
“if the gold price goes up, you're going to get asset prices in China lifting off and already the stock market is zooming”
90d +1.1% · 180d -6.8%
Global Liquidity Cycle & the Worldwide Rush Into Hard Assets | Weekly Roundup
2025-10-17 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
Both the US and China are monetizing debt at unprecedented scale, debasing paper money; China is explicitly collateralizing its financial system through gold and devaluing the yuan against gold, while the US debt trajectory extrapolates to gold testing…
“the skyrocketing amount of debt tells you that sometime in the mid30s, gold is going to test over $10,000 an ounce”
90d +8.8% · 180d +13.2%
Global Liquidity Cycle & the Worldwide Rush Into Hard Assets | Weekly Roundup
2025-10-17 BITCOIN bullish Forward Guidance · video
Gold price is a leading indicator for Bitcoin (negatively correlated short-term but Bitcoin catches up long-term); the current gold spike should elicit a positive move in Bitcoin, amplified by rising global liquidity (~50% driver of BTC) and China's ~$1T…
“the big spike in gold is going to elicit another move in Bitcoin, positive one”
90d -10.2% · 180d -29.7%
Global Liquidity Cycle & the Worldwide Rush Into Hard Assets | Weekly Roundup
2025-10-17 SHORT GBP (STERLING) bearish Forward Guidance · video
UK fiscal situation is dire — deficit escalating, overtaxed, welfare commitments unbreakable, no room to raise taxes or cut spending — leaving monetization as the only option, which inevitably devalues sterling.
“the only thing they can do is allow sterling to be crunched and that's what's inevitably going to happen”
Global Liquidity Cycle & the Worldwide Rush Into Hard Assets | Weekly Roundup

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