The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Michael Nicoletos's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Michael Nicoletos is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
2024-10-18
long USTS / short Long Dur Treasuries
spread
Wealthion · video
Fed rate cuts will compress front-end yields while deficit and debt concerns push long-end yields higher, steepening the US Treasury curve and penalizing duration.
“I would buy short end one two years three years I would not buy long end”
90d +1.7% · 180d +2.4% · 1y +1.9%
Is China’s $19 Trillion Crisis a Global Time Bomb? | Michael Nicoletos
2024-10-18
China Equities
bearish
Wealthion · video
A $10T wealth destruction in real estate and equities, a $60T banking system with provisioned bad debt below 2%, $9T in off-budget local-government debt, capital controls that trap depositor money, and opaque repatriation risk make China uninvestable for…
“the main reason is transparency and getting my money out”
90d +5.9% · 180d -2.3% · 1y -29.6%
Is China’s $19 Trillion Crisis a Global Time Bomb? | Michael Nicoletos
2024-10-18
TURKEY EQUITIES
bullish
Wealthion · video
Turkey has worked through its currency crisis, inflation has fallen from 60% to 25% with credible central-bank action, and large exporting companies are well-positioned.
“their inflation has come down to 25% used to be 60 so just to put it in perspective”
Is China’s $19 Trillion Crisis a Global Time Bomb? | Michael Nicoletos
2024-10-18
India Equities
bullish
Wealthion · video
Structural multi-year growth story with strong long-term economic prospects justifies holding even through near-term volatility.
“if you buy invest in India the next five six years you'll be doing very well”
90d -9.1% · 180d -8.9% · 1y -2.5%
Is China’s $19 Trillion Crisis a Global Time Bomb? | Michael Nicoletos
2024-10-18
USD
bullish
Wealthion · video
Structurally, global liquidity ends up in the US as the most competitive and transparent market, driving sustained dollar appreciation over the next few years even as the Fed cuts short-term rates.
“I think structurally we're in a dollar bull market I think in the next few years we're going to see the dollar much higher”
90d +6.6% · 180d -1.8% · 1y +0.1%
Is China’s $19 Trillion Crisis a Global Time Bomb? | Michael Nicoletos
Said again: 2024-10-19 (Wealthion)
2024-10-18
SPX
bullish
Wealthion · video
An unprecedented pace of global liquidity injection — from the Fed, ECB, and China — flows disproportionately into the most liquid and transparent equity market in the world, driving US stocks higher regardless of stretched valuations.
“markets tend to go crazy and I think we're at the stage where Equity markets in the US will do very well”
90d +1.5% · 180d -9.5% · 1y +16.2%
Is China’s $19 Trillion Crisis a Global Time Bomb? | Michael Nicoletos
Said again: 2024-10-19 (Wealthion)
2024-10-18
MEXICO EQUITIES
bullish
Wealthion · video
Nearshoring tailwind as manufacturing relocates from Asia toward the US border creates a structural long in Mexico as a leveraged proxy on US economic strength.
“factories are leaving Asia and coming closer to the US so Mexico is a high beneficial of that policy”
Is China’s $19 Trillion Crisis a Global Time Bomb? | Michael Nicoletos
2024-10-18
GOLD
bullish
Wealthion · video
Ongoing fiat currency debasement by governments worldwide and the role of gold as a safe-haven asset in any crisis scenario make it a core portfolio allocation.
“I would definitely have gold and gold miners”
90d -0.3% · 180d +22.4% · 1y +60.4%
Is China’s $19 Trillion Crisis a Global Time Bomb? | Michael Nicoletos
2024-10-18
BITCOIN
bullish
Wealthion · video
Fixed supply of 21M coins, generational adoption shift, and persistent currency debasement position Bitcoin as a store-of-value asset class analogous to gold that will benefit as governments inflate.
“only 21 million can be created and that creates a limited Supply and given the debasement of the currencies that asset will benefit”
90d +46.2% · 180d +22.8% · 1y +56.7%
Is China’s $19 Trillion Crisis a Global Time Bomb? | Michael Nicoletos