CIO, Treasury Partners
3 dated public stances tracked since 2022-06-30, most recently 2022-08-19. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Richard Saperstein's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Richard Saperstein is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|
| 2022-08-19 | CNQ | bullish | +11.3% | +11.3% | +17.7% |
| 2022-06-30 | long AAPL / long MSFT / long GOOGL | basket | -1.5% | -10.6% | +28.8% |
| 2022-06-30 | long ENERGY / long ENERGY / long CNQ | basket | -1.7% | +20.4% | +16.1% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|
| CNQ | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2022-08-19 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2022-08-19
CNQ
bullish
CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Canadian Natural Resources generates ~15% operating cash flow margin and is actively returning capital through buybacks and a 4.2% dividend yield plus special dividends
“a company with very high cash flow on an operating basis and they're returning it to shareholders”
90d +11.3% · 180d +11.3% · 1y +17.7%
The 'Halftime Report' investment committee offers its dividend picks
2022-06-30
long ENERGY / long ENERGY / long CNQ
basket
Barron's Roundtable · video
ESG constraints on new exploration combined with a one-third cut in industry headcount have driven operating cash flows to 10-17% yields, and with capex discipline intact companies are returning all excess cash to shareholders rather than drilling
“you can look at anywhere from 10 to 17 operating cash flows...that's the reason why we like that sector right now”
90d -1.7% · 180d +20.4% · 1y +16.1%
Fox Business Network’s Barron’s Roundtable
2022-06-30
long AAPL / long MSFT / long GOOGL
basket
Barron's Roundtable · video
After the selloff, AAPL, MSFT, and GOOGL trade at 5-7% operating cash flow yields and their combination of large moats, recurring cash flow, above-S&P margins, and durable growth makes them the defensive quality anchor investors will rotate into if the Fed…
“it's hard to see who can replace apple and google at least on the horizon”
90d -1.5% · 180d -10.6% · 1y +28.8%
Fox Business Network’s Barron’s Roundtable
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