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Investors / stance tracking

What Rob Arnott is saying

Founder & chairman, Research Affiliates

55 dated public stances tracked since 2020-10-19, most recently 2026-08-18. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Rob Arnott's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Rob Arnott is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.

55
tracked stances
35
themes
2
side flips
2026-08-18
last heard
Returns  90d -3.1% (n=22) · 180d -2.5% (n=16) · 1y -8.2% (n=14)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

USTS — bullish2022-10-27 → bearish2026-04-30
USTS — bearish2022-09-23 → bullish2022-10-27

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
SPX43 bearish / 1 neutral2026-04-30
Big Tech33 bearish2026-04-06
USTS31 bullish / 2 bearish2026-04-30
Em Equities22 bullish2022-10-27
RAFI22 bullish2026-08-18
RAUS22 bullish2026-04-06

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-08-18 RAFI bullish Rob Arnott · video
Cap-weighted indexes mechanically buy-high-sell-low by overweighting expensive stocks; weighting instead by business size (sales, profits, book value) generates a quantifiable rebalancing alpha of 2–2.5% per annum over value indexes because the methodology…
“The more expensive it is, the bigger its weight in your portfolio. None of this makes sense.”
RAFI Fundamental Indexing: An Interview With Rob Arnott
2026-08-18 long RAFI / short IWF pair Rob Arnott · video
Cap-weighted 'growth' indexes conflate expensiveness with growth; owning the 20% of the market actually expanding fastest, weighted by dollar magnitude of that economic growth rather than price multiple, has delivered ~4.5% per annum excess return over…
“Why on earth does our industry think that expensive means growth?”
RAFI Fundamental Indexing: An Interview With Rob Arnott
2026-04-30 SPX neutral Rob Arnott · video
Non-US equities remain cheap on valuation even after some mean reversion versus US equities, offering a persistent discount that has not fully closed
“non-US is still a bargain”
Can A.I. Improve Investment Results? With Rob Arnott, Founder & Chair, Research Affiliates.
2026-04-30 USTS bearish Rob Arnott · video
EM bond yield spreads remain more attractive than US high yield, offering a rich opportunity set that is structurally underowned by most investors
“emerging markets bonds. Very rich opportunity set”
90d -0.9%
Can A.I. Improve Investment Results? With Rob Arnott, Founder & Chair, Research Affiliates.
2026-04-30 long GLOBAL VALUE EQUITIES / short GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITIES pair Rob Arnott · video
Value is at historically extreme cheapness versus growth across all geographies, driven by momentum-chasing that confuses 'expensive' with 'growth', creating a rebalancing opportunity in favor of fundamentals-weighted value
“value is still very cheap relative to growth all over the world”
Can A.I. Improve Investment Results? With Rob Arnott, Founder & Chair, Research Affiliates.
2026-04-30 long US SMALL CAP VALUE EQUITIES / short SPX pair Rob Arnott · video
Passive indexation has pushed a 2-to-1 valuation spread between S&P/Russell index members and non-members while small caps have compounded earnings ~2% per annum faster than large caps over 30 years, making the relative cheapness of US small cap value…
“small cap is now the cheapest ever in history in the US relative to large cap”
Can A.I. Improve Investment Results? With Rob Arnott, Founder & Chair, Research Affiliates.
2026-04-30 long USTS / short US LARGE CAP EQUITIES pair Rob Arnott · video
30-year US TIPS yielding above 2.5% represent a near-certain real return for a default-risk-free instrument while US equities' equity risk premium over those linkers has compressed to roughly 1%, which is too thin to justify taking equity risk
“2 and 1/2% for default risk-free investments that are index-linked? That's a big real yield”
Can A.I. Improve Investment Results? With Rob Arnott, Founder & Chair, Research Affiliates.
2026-04-06 RAUS bullish Rob Arnott · video
Cap-weighted indices buy stocks after they soar and sell after they tank, creating ~1,000bps of drag on the 5% annual turnover slice; RAUS uses fundamental business size for entry/exit instead, producing 70bps/year backtested alpha and 90bps/year live alpha…
“it's already 90 basis points ahead of the spider in 6 months and it's got a 99.9% correlation”
90d +14.4%
Rob Arnott on Why Index Investing Is Broken | RAUS & NIXT ETFs | Behind the Ticker
2026-04-06 NIXT owns Rob Arnott · video
Stocks deleted from major indices are force-sold by passive funds, pushing valuations below fair value; deletions have historically outperformed by ~5%/year over 30 years (winning half the time by an average of 18%), and current underperformance since the…
“I've actually been buying in the last couple of 3 months because I want to be there when it has that 18% pop”
90d +17.5%
Rob Arnott on Why Index Investing Is Broken | RAUS & NIXT ETFs | Behind the Ticker
2026-04-06 RAFI bullish Rob Arnott · video
Selecting the fastest-growing 25% of the market by fundamental growth metrics (5-year sales, profit, R&D growth) and weighting by dollar magnitude of growth rather than market cap has beaten Russell Growth by 4.5%/year over 30 backtested years, because…
“it beats Russell Growth by 4 and a half percent per year for 30 years”
Rob Arnott on Why Index Investing Is Broken | RAUS & NIXT ETFs | Behind the Ticker
2026-04-06 Big Tech bearish Rob Arnott · video
The growth-to-value valuation spread has reached 8:1, co-equal with the dot-com bubble peak; AI narrative moats historically don't persist beyond 5 years, and only 1 of the 10 most valuable tech stocks in 2000 beat the S&P over the following two decades
“the spread in value between cap-weighted value indexes and cap-weighted growth indexes is roughly as wide as it was at the top of the dot-com bubble”
90d -23.0%
Rob Arnott on Why Index Investing Is Broken | RAUS & NIXT ETFs | Behind the Ticker
2026-04-06 VALUE STOCKS (CAP-WEIGHTED VALUE INDICES) bullish Rob Arnott · video
The growth-to-value valuation ratio has reached 8:1, a historically extreme level that in prior cycles reverted sharply; value is extraordinarily cheap on a relative basis, and Arnott advocates averaging into bargains
“I think the value is extraordinarily cheap”
Rob Arnott on Why Index Investing Is Broken | RAUS & NIXT ETFs | Behind the Ticker
2026-04-06 SMALL CAP EQUITIES VS LARGE CAP bullish Rob Arnott · video
Small-cap companies are growing faster in underlying cash flows than large caps but are getting cheaper, creating an extreme relative valuation gap that represents a significant opportunity for patient long-term investors
“small cap relative to large cap is extraordinarily cheap”
Rob Arnott on Why Index Investing Is Broken | RAUS & NIXT ETFs | Behind the Ticker
2026-04-06 SPX bearish Rob Arnott · video
Non-US stocks, especially on the value side, are extraordinarily cheap relative to US equities, and Arnott's framework of averaging into relative bargains favors building exposure now
“non-US relative to US, especially on the value side, is extraordinarily cheap”
90d +14.3%
Rob Arnott on Why Index Investing Is Broken | RAUS & NIXT ETFs | Behind the Ticker
2025-09-15 RAUS bullish Rob Arnott · video
Cap-weighted indexes systematically buy high and sell low through 4-5% annual turnover that chases frothy growth and dumps out-of-favor stocks; RAUS fixes this by using fundamental business size for inclusion, producing 69 bps/year excess return with ~1%…
“this really simple change boosts returns by 69 basis points per annum”
90d +3.7% · 180d +2.7%
Research Affiliates Founder & Chairman Rob Arnott Talks New ETF | Bloomberg Talks
2025-09-15 PLTR bearish Rob Arnott · video
Palantir is the largest market-cap stock excluded from RAUS because at 100x annual sales it is a market-cap giant with no commensurate fundamental business size — exactly the overvalued growth name his methodology identifies as a systematic value destroyer…
“Palantir is the largest market cap stock that we don't own, but it's not a big business. Trades at 100 times its annual sales.”
90d -7.0% · 180d +10.8%
Research Affiliates Founder & Chairman Rob Arnott Talks New ETF | Bloomberg Talks
2025-03-14 EMERGING MARKETS VALUE bullish The Compound · video
EM value is priced to return roughly 10% per annum compounded versus about 1% for US growth according to Research Affiliates' forward-return model, offering a dramatic valuation-driven expected return advantage
“the expectation for international value and Emerging Markets value is 10% per anom compounded for us growth is 1% per anom”
The Bubble is Bursting | TCAF 182
2025-03-14 RUSSELL 2000 VALUE / US SMALL CAP VALUE bullish The Compound · video
Small cap value historically shrugged off tech-bubble bursts (up 53% while the S&P fell 27% in 2000–2002) and the current valuation spread between cheap and expensive stocks is 'not dissimilar' to that era, making small cap value the right dip to buy rather…
“buy the cheap stocks that shouldn't be dipping buy the cheap stocks that got even dirtier and even cheaper”
The Bubble is Bursting | TCAF 182
2025-03-14 AI / LARGE-CAP TECH BUBBLE bearish The Compound · video
AI is a 'big market delusion' with prices already fully reflecting the narrative — Nvidia at 30x sales requires an impossible 50% sustained profit margin — but bubbles can persist far longer than expected, so shorting is inadvisable
“I'm on record saying I think it's a bubble but I'm also on record saying don't ever short sell a bubble”
The Bubble is Bursting | TCAF 182
2025-03-14 EUROPEAN VALUE STOCKS bullish The Compound · video
European stocks trade at historically wide valuation discounts to the US with new structural catalysts emerging (rearmament spending, fiscal reform impulses) that could sustain the rally well beyond a six-week rotation, especially on the value side of the…
“I think it has ample room especially on the value side of the Spectrum which is where the rallying is happening”
The Bubble is Bursting | TCAF 182
2025-03-14 JAPANESE EQUITIES bullish The Compound · video
Japan is moderately attractively priced relative to other developed markets and ongoing TSE corporate governance reforms — requiring companies to trade above book value and publish plans to get there — are creating a durable shareholder-value catalyst
“broadly Japan is moderately attractive”
The Bubble is Bursting | TCAF 182
2025-03-14 long USTS / short SPX hedge The Compound · video
Third-pillar diversifiers (commodities, high yield, EM stocks and bonds, TIPS, REITs) are priced to return ~7.5% per annum versus 6/40 at ~4.5%, and layering a short on US equities reduces beta to the S&P while capturing that spread — particularly valuable if…
“diversifiers are priced to give you on the order of about seven and a half percent return”
90d -3.2% · 180d -5.9% · 1y -7.4%
The Bubble is Bursting | TCAF 182
2024-04-05 TSLA bearish Rob Arnott · video
Kathy Wood's $3,000 Tesla target requires 89% annual growth for five years — a 25x expansion in half the time Apple achieved its best decade — fitting Arnott's definition of a bubble requiring implausible, not merely optimistic, assumptions
“implausible not impossible but implausible growth assumptions to justify the current price”
90d -52.5% · 180d -51.0% · 1y -41.5%
Rob Arnott at Exchange ETF
2024-04-05 EMERGING MARKETS bullish Rob Arnott · video
Ukraine-driven EM selloff is narrative-driven contagion with no long-term bearing on unrelated economies like Chile or Indonesia, creating a valuation buying opportunity
“why should that have any bearing long-term bearing on Chile or Indonesia”
Rob Arnott at Exchange ETF
2024-04-05 VALUE STOCKS (BROAD) bullish Rob Arnott · video
Growth-to-value valuation spread is ~9:1, matching the peak of the 2000 tech bubble, making value stocks historically cheap and likely to mean-revert for patient investors
“reports of values death have been greatly exaggerated”
Rob Arnott at Exchange ETF
2024-04-05 MEGA-CAP TECH (TOP-10 BY MARKET CAP) bearish Rob Arnott · video
Historically 8–9 of any era's top-10 market-cap stocks underperform MSCI World over the following decade; with 9/10 now tech (more concentrated than the 2000 peak), the pattern argues for underperformance — Cisco's flat stock price over 22 years of great…
“Cisco was the world's largest market cap stock in March of 2000... it's cheaper now than it was in March of 2000”
Rob Arnott at Exchange ETF
2022-10-27 USTS bullish Rob Arnott · video
Real yields on 10-20yr TIPS (~1.7-1.8%) have been artificially pushed high by Fed rate hikes and markets pricing in rapid inflation decline, creating a tactical opportunity to lock in positive real returns and earn 16-18pt capital gains per 1% yield decline…
“this is a tactical opportunity to lock in a decent real return in tax deferred assets”
90d +5.0% · 180d +6.2% · 1y -2.9%
Show Us Your Portfolio: Rob Arnott | How the Research Affiliates Founder Builds His Portfolio
2022-10-27 Commodities Broad owns Rob Arnott · video
Commodities are among the few inflation-sensitive asset classes that outperform in rising-inflation environments, providing critical portfolio diversification precisely when mainstream stocks and bonds are suffering their worst simultaneous drawdowns in…
“I do use Commodities... I'm happy to use commodity funds as part of my allocation”
90d -2.0% · 180d -7.0% · 1y -1.8%
Show Us Your Portfolio: Rob Arnott | How the Research Affiliates Founder Builds His Portfolio
2022-10-27 P bullish Rob Arnott · video
Value-factor stocks in emerging and international markets are 'quite cheap' with overwhelmingly bearish narratives, and the time to buy is precisely when fear peaks and pessimism is at its most extreme
“value stocks the low PE low-priced Book... in emerging markets and international markets are cheap... in fact quite cheap”
Show Us Your Portfolio: Rob Arnott | How the Research Affiliates Founder Builds His Portfolio
2022-10-27 SPX bearish Rob Arnott · video
US stocks at a Shiller P/E of 27x — matching the October 2007 pre-financial-crisis peak — remain expensive even after the bear market, offering little margin of safety and poor expected returns relative to international and EM alternatives
“US stocks are far from cheap”
Show Us Your Portfolio: Rob Arnott | How the Research Affiliates Founder Builds His Portfolio
2022-10-27 SILVER bullish Rob Arnott · video
Silver provides a more concentrated and targeted inflation hedge than gold, and despite catastrophic YTD performance is maintained in the portfolio as a commodity-driven inflation offset when mainstream stocks and bonds both suffer
“I prefer to use silver rather than gold because a kind of concentrated targeted inflation hinge”
90d +22.2% · 180d +27.9% · 1y +17.8%
Show Us Your Portfolio: Rob Arnott | How the Research Affiliates Founder Builds His Portfolio
2022-10-27 Em Equities bullish Rob Arnott · video
EM stocks are cheap by historical standards while dominant bearish narratives (Ukraine war, COVID) are unlikely to remain relevant in 5 years, and cheap starting valuations mean EM should handsomely magnify any global equity rebound versus expensive US markets
“I would expect a stark and much larger Rebound in Emerging Markets”
90d +23.9% · 180d +12.4% · 1y +8.3%
Show Us Your Portfolio: Rob Arnott | How the Research Affiliates Founder Builds His Portfolio
2022-10-27 MLPS (MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIPS) bullish Rob Arnott · video
MLPs are countercyclical in inflationary environments and delivered modest positive returns in a year where nearly every other asset class suffered significant losses, making them a valuable inflation-diversification tool
“MLPs tend to be contraceyclical in inflationary environments”
Show Us Your Portfolio: Rob Arnott | How the Research Affiliates Founder Builds His Portfolio
2022-10-27 Japan Equities bullish Rob Arnott · video
European and Japanese stocks are cheap by historical standards and the Ukraine/energy-supply narrative driving the discount is unlikely to persist five years out, as either conflict resolution or leadership change will resume energy flows and dissipate the…
“International stocks... they're relatively cheap by historical standards”
90d +18.4% · 180d +18.0% · 1y +17.3%
Show Us Your Portfolio: Rob Arnott | How the Research Affiliates Founder Builds His Portfolio
2022-09-23 USTS bearish Rob Arnott · video
Non-US and EM equities and bonds are priced much more reasonably than US assets whose yields are too low relative to risk, offering better forward returns for investors willing to reallocate away from expensive domestic markets.
“non-US stocks and emerging market stocks and bonds are all priced much more reasonably than US”
90d +1.2% · 180d +3.8% · 1y -2.7%
Value investing is back | Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates | FTSE Russell Convenes
2022-09-23 long VALUE STOCKS / short GROWTH STOCKS pair Rob Arnott · video
Moderate-to-high inflation systematically favors value over growth because inflation compresses the net-present-value advantage of long-duration earnings streams that justify growth premiums, while value earnings are shorter-duration and less sensitive to…
“will value stocks win out for the patient investor over the coming three to five years I'd give that very very high odds”
Value investing is back | Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates | FTSE Russell Convenes
2021-09-10 AUSTRALIAN EQUITIES bullish Rob Arnott · video
Australian equities yield approximately 5% after the selloff (up from 4% at end of February), with value stocks particularly cheap and no identifiable reason for Australia to be hit harder than the US or Europe by the COVID crisis
“Australia has yield of four percent at the end of February, let's call it five percent today”
[i3] Podcast Episode 48: Research Affiliate’s Rob Arnott
2021-09-10 UK EQUITIES bullish Rob Arnott · video
UK dividend yield has risen to approximately 5.5% (from 4.5% at end of February) due to the selloff, offering a strong starting point for real returns with no identifiable reason for the UK economy to be disproportionately damaged relative to the US or Europe
“a five percent yield is a heck of a step in the direction of a five percent real return”
[i3] Podcast Episode 48: Research Affiliate’s Rob Arnott
2021-09-10 VALUE STOCKS (GLOBAL EQUITY FACTOR) bullish Rob Arnott · video
Value has underperformed growth by ~1000bps in three months and is trading at its cheapest-ever valuation relative to growth with the sole exception of the peak two months of the tech bubble, creating a peak-fear buying opportunity with a behavioral premium…
“value has been crushed...trading at the cheapest ever with the sole exception of the peak two months of the tech bubble”
[i3] Podcast Episode 48: Research Affiliate’s Rob Arnott
2021-09-10 Em Equities bullish Rob Arnott · video
EM growth stocks (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) trade at parity with US FANG despite EM broad indices being at half the valuation multiple of developed markets, implying EM value stocks are extraordinarily cheap; additionally EM economies habitually absorb crises…
“I look on emerging markets as an extraordinary buy right now especially on the value end of the spectrum”
90d -4.7% · 180d -14.3% · 1y -22.8%
[i3] Podcast Episode 48: Research Affiliate’s Rob Arnott
2021-09-10 Big Tech bearish Rob Arnott · video
FANG stocks are priced as immune to COVID disruption but their profit engine is advertising, which is the first budget cut in an economic downturn, making the consensus growth-stock-safe-haven narrative naive and leaving them vulnerable to earnings declines…
“the notion that these stocks are not going to get hit is naive”
90d -4.7% · 180d +10.8% · 1y +17.0%
[i3] Podcast Episode 48: Research Affiliate’s Rob Arnott
2020-11-03 VALUE FACTOR (GLOBAL EQUITIES) bullish Rob Arnott · video
The global growth-to-value spread at 4.5x has historically added value 90% of the time when above 4:1, and has never failed a patient five-year holder when above 5:1, making this the single factor currently worth overweighting
“when it gets above five to one historically it has never failed to add value”
[i3] Podcast Episode 23: Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott
2020-11-03 EMERGING MARKETS EQUITIES bullish Rob Arnott · video
EM equities trade at a 9.5x Shiller PE—representing half of world GDP at crisis-level valuations—and COVID is merely the latest in a series of recurring EM crises, making it a peak-fear buying opportunity with defined upside
“if you can buy half the world's GDP for nine and a half times earnings you don't pose the question what could go wrong”
[i3] Podcast Episode 23: Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott
2020-11-03 UK AND AUSTRALIAN EQUITIES (VALUE-TILTED) bullish Rob Arnott · video
UK and Australian valuations sit near historic norms with a Shiller PE in the mid-teens, making value stocks cheap in absolute terms—not just relative to expensive US equities at 30x+—and warranting meaningful allocation
“in developed economies outside the us especially countries like uk and australia the values pretty darn cheap even in absolute terms”
[i3] Podcast Episode 23: Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott
2020-11-03 VOL bearish Rob Arnott · video
Low-beta stocks now trade at a premium multiple to high-beta stocks—reversing their historical persistent discount—while also carrying embedded interest rate risk, creating asymmetric downside with little upside compensation
“low beta which historically has almost always traded at a discount is now trading at a premium”
90d +19.2% · 180d +60.7% · 1y +79.9%
[i3] Podcast Episode 23: Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott
2020-11-03 Big Tech bearish Rob Arnott · video
Momentum is currently signaling to chase FANG bubble stocks, a pattern that has historically preceded every major momentum crash, making this the worst-timed entry into momentum strategies
“every time momentum has had one of its infamous crashes it's been preceded by momentum saying chase the bubble stocks”
90d -17.6% · 180d -22.8% · 1y -43.9%
[i3] Podcast Episode 23: Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott
2020-11-03 SMALL CAP VS LARGE CAP EQUITIES bearish Rob Arnott · video
Small cap stocks trade at a premium to large cap almost universally across global markets, reversing the historical discount that powered the small cap premium, making the factor likely to disappoint on a forward-looking basis
“small cap trading at a premium to large cap almost all over the world”
[i3] Podcast Episode 23: Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott
2020-11-03 SPX bearish Rob Arnott · video
With the US Shiller PE in the low 30s—only exceeded at the 1929 peak and the apex of the tech bubble—forward returns are structurally impaired even for value-tilted strategies, warranting a defensive rather than aggressive posture
“schiller pe is in the low 30s...it's been higher than today twice in history”
[i3] Podcast Episode 23: Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott
2020-11-03 long EMERGING MARKETS VALUE STOCKS / short EMERGING MARKETS GROWTH STOCKS (TENCENT, BAIDU) pair Rob Arnott · video
The growth-to-value spread in EM is 5.5x versus the 3.5x historic average—widest ever recorded—creating a compelling mean-reversion long in EM value funded by a short in expensive EM growth names like Tencent and Baidu
“value stocks in emerging markets are really cheap and growth stocks...are really expensive and that spread is way into the widest decile ever”
[i3] Podcast Episode 23: Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott
2020-10-19 EMERGING MARKETS STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES bullish Rob Arnott · video
The top 50 EM SOEs trade at P/B of 1.03 and P/E of 8.9 with a 4.2% dividend yield—requiring implausibly pessimistic assumptions about large, profitable enterprises in fast-growing economies to fail to deliver a solid risk premium over the next decade.
“these are large productive enterprises sitting at the center of strongly growing economies and they currently represent real value”
The Best Investment Writing Volume 4: Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates – Bubble, Bubble, Toil and..
2020-10-19 UK EQUITIES bullish Rob Arnott · video
Brexit uncertainty has compressed UK share prices to a 25% P/E discount to MSCI World at only 13.8x earnings and a 4.5% dividend yield; resolution of uncertainty in either direction should catalyze capital reflows, and waiting for clarity means missing the…
“a resolution in either direction would reduce the uncertainty and should encourage some capital flow back into the uk markets”
The Best Investment Writing Volume 4: Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates – Bubble, Bubble, Toil and..
2020-10-19 VALUE SMART BETA EMERGING MARKETS bullish Rob Arnott · video
EM value strategies are poised to deliver an additional 2–4% annual return advantage over cap-weighted EM counterparts because the EM universe already trades at far cheaper valuations than the US, and a value tilt within that universe adds further…
“value strategies within the emerging market space are poised to deliver an additional two percent to four percent advantage over their cap weighted counterparts”
The Best Investment Writing Volume 4: Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates – Bubble, Bubble, Toil and..
2020-10-19 CRYPTOCURRENCIES bearish Rob Arnott · video
Cryptocurrencies offer zero expected future cash flows so any expected return rests solely on finding a greater-fool buyer at a higher price, with no fundamental floor of value—a textbook bubble with no basis for a risk premium over bonds or cash.
“any expectation of a higher price going forward rests solely on the hope of selling to a future buyer at a higher price”
The Best Investment Writing Volume 4: Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates – Bubble, Bubble, Toil and..
2020-10-19 TSLA bearish Rob Arnott · video
Tesla's valuation requires heroic future cash flows that have failed to materialize for seven years despite repeated dramatic product announcements, and the company remains well above any valuation justifiable even by optimistic DCF assumptions.
“its valuation remains at a point well above that justified by even optimistic expectations for future cash flows”
90d -96.0% · 180d -65.9% · 1y -100.0%
The Best Investment Writing Volume 4: Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates – Bubble, Bubble, Toil and..
2020-10-19 short NFLX / short TWTR / short TENCENT basket Rob Arnott · video
Netflix, Twitter, and Tencent each meet the formal bubble definition—requiring implausible cash flow projections to justify current prices, with marginal buyers ignoring valuation models and relying on narrative and momentum—warranting outright avoidance.
“the stocks of these companies all arguably qualify as being in bubble territory per our definition”
90d +2.6% · 180d -26.4% · 1y -32.3%
The Best Investment Writing Volume 4: Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates – Bubble, Bubble, Toil and..

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