Publisher, Calafia Beach Pundit
Economist
5 dated public stances tracked since 2025-08-22, most recently 2026-10-09. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Scott Grannis's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Scott Grannis is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|
| 2026-03-25 | HOUSING | bearish | -7.8% | +2.9% | — |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|
| HOUSING | 2 | | 2 bearish | 2026-10-09 |
| ENERGY | 1 | | 1 neutral | 2026-03-25 |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2026-09-04 |
| SMALL-CAP STOCKS | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2025-08-22 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-09
HOUSING
bearish
Calafia Beach Pundit (Scott Grannis) · article
Housing affordability is at historic lows with mortgage rates at 7.5%, prices are historically high and have peaked, and the 5-to-1 leverage embedded in typical mortgages magnifies downside, pointing to significant price declines in coming years
“prices look like they have peaked...could fall significantly in coming years”
Thinking about higher interest rates and the demand for money
2026-09-04
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Calafia Beach Pundit (Scott Grannis) · article
Jobs growth is so weak that a Fed rate hike would threaten the economy, meaning the bond market is wrong to price in a 60% hike probability at the September FOMC and rates should stay flat or fall
“jobs growth remains so weak that a rate hike might pose a threat to the economy”
Jobs growth update: modest improvement in August.
2026-03-25
ENERGY
neutral
Calafia Beach Pundit (Scott Grannis) · article
With the economy on a strict diet of 5-6% M2 growth there is insufficient monetary fuel to sustain broad price gains, so non-energy commodity prices are already softening
“already we're seeing non-energy commodity prices softening”
M2 update: Ok for now, but the Fed should ease
2026-03-25
HOUSING
bearish
Calafia Beach Pundit (Scott Grannis) · article
Rising 30-year mortgage rates combined with a surge in new homes for sale tips supply/demand such that real estate prices are more likely to fall than rise
“real estate prices are more likely to decline than to rise”
90d -7.8% · 180d +2.9%
M2 update: Ok for now, but the Fed should ease
2025-08-22
SMALL-CAP STOCKS
bullish
Calafia Beach Pundit (Scott Grannis) · article
Years of tight monetary policy artificially boosted large caps at the expense of small caps, producing ~60% relative underperformance since March 2021; Powell's Jackson Hole signal that Fed easing is resuming should reverse this dynamic.
“tight monetary policy in recent years has also boosted large cap stocks at the expense of small caps”
The appeal of small-cap stocks
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