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Investors / stance tracking

What Spencer Glendon is saying

Founder, Probable Futures

3 dated public stances tracked since 2019-05-20, most recently 2019-05-20. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Spencer Glendon's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Spencer Glendon is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

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3
tracked stances
3
themes
0
side flips
2019-05-20
last heard

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
Em Equities11 bearish2019-05-20
FLORIDA REAL ESTATE / FLORIDA BANK STOCKS11 bearish2019-05-20
MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES (FLORIDA / CLIMATE-EXPOSED COLLATERAL)11 bearish2019-05-20

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2019-05-20 FLORIDA REAL ESTATE / FLORIDA BANK STOCKS bearish Sohn Investment Conference · video
Rising seas, heat extremes, and salt-water infiltration will make Florida uninsurable within 30-year mortgage horizons, collapsing the lending market and real estate economy that the state entirely depends on
“you can short real estate in a bunch of places or just sell it”
Spencer Glendon at the 2019 Sohn Investment Conference
2019-05-20 MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES (FLORIDA / CLIMATE-EXPOSED COLLATERAL) bearish Sohn Investment Conference · video
Insurance markets in climate-exposed regions like Florida will contract, making 30-year mortgage underwriting untenable and rendering the underlying MBS collateral impaired
“mortgage backed securities are going to be a mess”
Spencer Glendon at the 2019 Sohn Investment Conference
2019-05-20 Em Equities bearish Sohn Investment Conference · video
Consensus growth assumptions for hot-climate economies (India, Middle East, Central America) are wrong because extreme heat will make outdoor work impossible for most of the year, destroying the agricultural and construction GDP base those growth forecasts…
“you could just do global growth because so much of it is dependent on hot places that are supposed to get rich”
90d +0.3% · 180d -8.2% · 1y +4.8%
Spencer Glendon at the 2019 Sohn Investment Conference

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