Investors / stance tracking
What Stanley Druckenmiller is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowChairman/CEO, Duquesne Family Office
65 dated public stances tracked since 2018-11-13, most recently 2026-02-28. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Stanley Druckenmiller's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Stanley Druckenmiller is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
65
tracked stances
40
themes
2
side flips
2026-02-28
last heard
Returns 90d +5.2% 56% correct · 34 calls · 180d +6.4% 59% correct · 34 calls · 1y +17.3% 62% correct · 26 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | USTS | bearish | +1.9% | +2.4% | — |
| 2026-02-28 | ENERGY | bullish | -0.7% | +10.7% | — |
| 2026-02-28 | Commercial Real Estate | bearish | -0.8% | -3.8% | — |
| 2026-02-27 | short USTS / long GOLD | hedge | -6.0% | -5.0% | — |
| 2026-02-27 | USD | bearish | -2.3% | -3.5% | — |
| 2026-02-27 | TEVA | bullish | +1.9% | +12.0% | — |
| 2026-02-27 | GOLD | bullish | -14.7% | -12.9% | — |
| 2026-02-27 | COPPER | bullish | +5.9% | +8.6% | — |
| 2025-07-24 | USD | bearish | -2.9% | -3.7% | -9.0% |
| 2025-07-24 | GOLD | bullish | +21.6% | +40.9% | +19.9% |
| 2025-07-24 | Commodities Broad | owns | +0.3% | +8.4% | +38.9% |
| 2025-01-20 | USTS | short | -2.5% | -4.1% | -7.0% |
| 2024-10-16 | USTS | bearish | +4.4% | +0.3% | -5.2% |
| 2024-10-16 | Long Dur Treasuries | short | +9.6% | +6.2% | -0.1% |
| 2024-10-16 | BITCOIN | bullish | +42.8% | +25.1% | +60.0% |
| 2023-06-07 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +6.5% | +6.5% | +4.0% |
| 2023-06-07 | Japan Equities | bullish | +1.8% | +2.0% | +15.1% |
| 2023-06-07 | Commercial Real Estate | bearish | +1.4% | -2.9% | -4.3% |
| 2023-06-07 | China Equities | bearish | -0.5% | +11.6% | -1.5% |
| 2023-05-10 | long GOLD / long SILVER | basket | -7.8% | -6.2% | +12.9% |
| 2023-05-10 | NVDA | bullish | +54.7% | +58.4% | +207.4% |
| 2023-05-10 | MSFT | owns | +4.6% | +14.7% | +33.1% |
| 2023-04-27 | USD | short | -0.9% | -7.8% | -10.9% |
| 2023-04-27 | GOLD | owns | -0.8% | -1.0% | +17.3% |
| 2022-10-20 | European Equities | bearish | -27.5% | -34.2% | -21.5% |
| 2022-06-10 | long GOLD / short BITCOIN | pair | +12.3% | +18.7% | +7.6% |
| 2020-01-06 | MSFT | bullish | +4.2% | +33.2% | +38.5% |
| 2020-01-06 | High Yield | bearish | +13.3% | +3.6% | -4.1% |
| 2020-01-06 | BANKS | short | +43.0% | +33.3% | +7.1% |
| 2019-11-03 | short USD / short USD | basket | -1.0% | -2.5% | +2.9% |
| 2019-11-03 | USTS | bearish | -2.4% | -9.9% | -9.1% |
| 2019-11-03 | Japan Equities | bullish | -1.3% | -13.8% | +0.6% |
| 2019-06-05 | USTS | bullish | +5.4% | +3.0% | +12.5% |
| 2019-06-05 | BABA | owns | +13.7% | +29.4% | +43.8% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USTS | 6 | 1 bullish / 5 bearish | 2026-02-28 | |
| GOLD | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-02-27 | |
| USD | 3 | 3 bearish | 2026-02-27 | |
| BANKS | 2 | 2 bearish | 2020-01-06 | |
| Commercial Real Estate | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-02-28 | |
| High Yield | 2 | 2 bearish | 2020-01-06 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
Default rates are climbing and credit spreads are widening as companies that borrowed cheaply now face refinancing at 2-4x higher rates, signaling acute stress in leveraged credit.
“Default rates are climbing. Credit spreads are widening. These are the early signals, the trimmers before the earthquake.”
90d +1.9% · 180d +2.4%
Stanley Druckenmiller: The 2026 Credit Collapse Has Begun (Here’s How I’d Protect My Money)
2026-02-28
Commercial Real Estate
bearish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
CRE was priced assuming ~2% financing; at 5-7% rates cap rates are indefensible, office occupancy hasn't recovered, and regional banks holding these loans face solvency risk they are concealing.
“The commercial real estate implosion...is already underway and is dramatically underappreciated by most people”
90d -0.8% · 180d -3.8%
Stanley Druckenmiller: The 2026 Credit Collapse Has Begun (Here’s How I’d Protect My Money)
2026-02-28
ESSENTIAL CONSUMER STAPLES EQUITIES
bullish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Staples businesses with genuine pricing power and non-discretionary demand will be far more resilient than consumer discretionary when household credit exhaustion forces spending cuts.
“essential consumer staples and select technology platforms with genuine network effects...are the categories where I would concentrate equity exposure”
Stanley Druckenmiller: The 2026 Credit Collapse Has Begun (Here’s How I’d Protect My Money)
Energy infrastructure provides essential services with pricing power, strong cash flows, and resilience to credit contraction making it a preferred equity category in a downturn.
“energy infrastructure, certain categories of health care, essential consumer staples...are the categories where I would concentrate equity exposure today”
90d -0.7% · 180d +10.7%
Stanley Druckenmiller: The 2026 Credit Collapse Has Begun (Here’s How I’d Protect My Money)
2026-02-28
SELECT SOUTHEAST ASIA EQUITIES
bullish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Certain Southeast Asian markets with sound fiscal positions and undervalued currencies relative to PPP offer outperformance potential in an inflationary medium-term resolution of the US debt crisis.
“certain parts of Southeast Asia and select commodity exporters with significant interest”
Stanley Druckenmiller: The 2026 Credit Collapse Has Begun (Here’s How I’d Protect My Money)
2026-02-28
SPECULATIVE HIGH-MULTIPLE GROWTH EQUITIES
bearish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Rising discount rates mathematically compress the present value of distant earnings, making high-multiple stocks with profits 5-10 years out extremely vulnerable in a persistent high-rate credit contraction.
“the high multiple speculative growth names...are the names I would avoid with conviction in a rising rate environment”
Stanley Druckenmiller: The 2026 Credit Collapse Has Begun (Here’s How I’d Protect My Money)
2026-02-28
SELECT TECHNOLOGY PLATFORMS WITH NETWORK EFFECTS
bullish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Tech platforms with genuine network effects and high switching costs have durable pricing power and cash generation that justifies equity ownership even in a credit contraction.
“select technology platforms with genuine network effects and high switching costs”
Stanley Druckenmiller: The 2026 Credit Collapse Has Begun (Here’s How I’d Protect My Money)
2026-02-28
BRAZILIAN EQUITIES / BRL
bullish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Brazil's commodity-rich economy and undervalued currency relative to PPP position it to outperform in an inflationary credit-collapse resolution scenario.
“I am watching Brazil...with significant interest”
Stanley Druckenmiller: The 2026 Credit Collapse Has Begun (Here’s How I’d Protect My Money)
2026-02-27
short USTS / long GOLD
hedge
video
Short bonds hedge the long risk-asset portfolio (equities, copper, gold): if growth is disinflationary bonds break even but longs pay off; if strong growth sparks inflation, the short bonds profit as the Fed cuts into a booming economy and commodities push…
“because we're long all these risk assets I just mentioned, we're short bonds”
90d -6.0% · 180d -5.0%
Gold held primarily as a geopolitical hedge rather than a monetary inflation trade, functioning as portfolio insurance against geopolitical dislocation
“that's mainly a geopolitical trade. It's not so much a monetary trade”
90d -14.7% · 180d -12.9%
Said again: 2026-02-28 (Stanley Druckenmiller)
Copper supply is structurally tight for at least eight years with no meaningful new supply coming online, compounded by incremental AI and data-center demand; Druckenmiller holds the physical commodity via rolling futures rather than copper equities
“there's no supply coming on meaningful supply very tight for the next 8 years”
90d +5.9% · 180d +8.6%
Said again: 2026-02-28 (Stanley Druckenmiller)
Teva is re-rating from 6x to 12x earnings as new management (Richard Francis) transitions the company from generic drugs to biosimilars and branded drugs, with value and growth investors both absent from the shareholder base creating a mispricing
“the stock sat there at six times earnings while you could see this incredible management initiative going on”
90d +1.9% · 180d +12.0%
The dollar sits near the top of its historic purchasing-power range while foreigners are heavily overweight dollar assets; even without an active 'sell America' trade, a slowdown in foreign buying relative to the trade deficit is sufficient to push the dollar…
“foreigners are way, way overloaded in dollars”
90d -2.3% · 180d -3.5%
2026-02-27
BIOTECH SECTOR
bullish
video
AI's most compelling real-world application is in drug discovery and diagnostics, and biotech had underperformed for four years with momentum only recently turning, creating an entry into a beaten-down sector at the inflection of a structural catalyst
“probably the best use case out there of AI is biotech through drug discovery, diagnostics, monitoring”
Global monetary policy is too loose because every nation suppresses their own currency to avoid appreciation, the US runs structurally impaired fiscal policy enabled by reserve-currency status (US debt/GDP ~370% vs China ~120-130%), and everyone hates their…
“everybody hates their own currency and that's why I like gold”
90d +21.6% · 180d +40.9% · 1y +19.9%
2025-07-24
GLOBAL RISK ASSETS / EQUITIES
owns
video
Fed and global central banks are injecting massive liquidity (QE, 20-25bn/week in Treasury/MBS purchases); when money supply grows far faster than industrial production equities go up regardless of economic fundamentals — he is playing the liquidity wave in…
“if you have the money supply growing a lot faster than industrial production the stock market is generally going to go up... we are tilted toward long risk”
Both the pound and dollar sit at the bottom of his currency framework because both countries carry structural balance-sheet impairments that cannot be corrected while reserve-currency status lets them avoid the market discipline that would force reform
“I would put the pound and the dollar at the bottom because they have structural problems”
90d -2.9% · 180d -3.7% · 1y -9.0%
2025-07-24
Commodities Broad
owns
video
Same loose-global-monetary-policy thesis as gold: reserve-currency dynamics force the Fed to run policy far too loose for the world, which benefits commodity-linked currencies whose issuers have cleaner balance sheets
“we're all so long a bunch of commodity currencies basically for the same reason”
90d +0.3% · 180d +8.4% · 1y +38.9%
Fed cut was a policy mistake that risks re-igniting animal spirits and inflation, compounded by a structurally worsening fiscal deficit (6.7% of GDP at full employment), keeping upward pressure on long-end yields
“We are still short Treasurys, but we're certainly not pressing the size of that position now”
90d -2.5% · 180d -4.1% · 1y -7.0%
Stanley Druckenmiller: Tariffs are simply a consumption tax that foreigners pay for some of it
Fed cut 50bps into a financial melt-up with equities, gold, and crypto at record highs and GDP above trend, while the 10-year should trade around nominal GDP of ~5.5%, creating asymmetric risk of hundreds of basis points of selloff if inflation re-accelerates…
“the 10-year should trade around where nominal GDP is which is 5 and a half percent so the risk reward to me is being short bonds”
90d +4.4% · 180d +0.3% · 1y -5.2%
Stan Druckenmiller on Fed Policy, Election, Bonds, Nvidia
Said again: 2024-11-06
2024-10-16
Long Dur Treasuries
short
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
A Republican red sweep would boost animal spirits and economic growth, but bond yields don't currently reflect the proper economic outlook; stronger growth plus deregulation would likely push yields significantly higher
“We're playing it through the bond market — going after the cause rather than the symptoms”
90d +9.6% · 180d +6.2% · 1y -0.1%
Stan Druckenmiller on Fed Policy, Election, Bonds, Nvidia
2024-10-16
AI INFRASTRUCTURE / POWER GRID BUILD-OUT
owns
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Long-term belief in AI drives investment in the physical infrastructure — particularly power — being built out to support AI workloads, as a way to play AI without holding Nvidia at current valuations
“There are still many ways we're playing AI, particularly the infrastructure built out to support the power needed”
Stan Druckenmiller on Fed Policy, Election, Bonds, Nvidia
2024-10-16
BANK STOCKS
bullish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Markets are pricing a Trump victory, and bank stocks are rising in anticipation of deregulation under a Trump/red-sweep scenario that would benefit financials
“You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto”
Stan Druckenmiller on Fed Policy, Election, Bonds, Nvidia
Crypto is surging as markets price in a Trump win and expected deregulation of digital assets, with crypto seen as a market indicator of election outcome similar to bank stocks
“You can see it in crypto going crazy, you name it”
90d +42.8% · 180d +25.1% · 1y +60.0%
Stan Druckenmiller on Fed Policy, Election, Bonds, Nvidia
2024-10-16
AI POWER AND COMPUTE INFRASTRUCTURE
owns
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Long-term believers in AI are expressing the theme through physical power and data-center infrastructure buildout rather than direct chip exposure after selling Nvidia at what proved to be a premature valuation call.
“there's still many ways we're playing AI particularly the infrastructure that's been built out to support the power needed”
Stan Druckenmiller on Fed Policy, Election, Bonds, Nvidia
A decade of zero rates created the biggest asset bubble he has ever studied across crypto, meme stocks, equities, credit, and bonds; with rates now elevated and corporate profits at all-time highs, he fears a secular bull market top analogous to the 1968–1982…
“what I'm worried about is like a 68 to 82 period where you go up and down three or four times but you basically go nowhere”
Stanley Druckenmiller: World's Top Investor Reveals Unique Future Vision
2023-06-07
Commercial Real Estate
bearish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Office real estate faces structural demand destruction from post-COVID lifestyle changes compounded by rising financing rates and impaired bank balance sheets reducing credit availability
“office is a problem it would have been a problem anyway but change of Lifestyle in covid makes it even bigger problem”
90d +1.4% · 180d -2.9% · 1y -4.3%
Druckenmiller on How AI is Dominating His Long Portfolio
2023-06-07
US EQUITY INDEX SHORTS
short
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
The largest broadest asset bubble ever followed by 500bps of rate hikes in one year historically leads to more shoes dropping, with corporate profits potentially down 20-30%
“our shorts have been fine this year except my index shorts which have been a disaster”
Druckenmiller on How AI is Dominating His Long Portfolio
2023-06-07
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
US unfunded entitlement liabilities of ~$200 trillion present value combined with rising interest expense crowding out investment will eventually force much higher taxes or inflation, undermining long-duration government bonds
“taxes are going to be much higher in 20 years”
90d +6.5% · 180d +6.5% · 1y +4.0%
Druckenmiller on How AI is Dominating His Long Portfolio
2023-06-07
AI THEME (BROAD)
bullish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
AI is real and potentially as transformative as the internet, already making top coders 7-8x more productive, justifying sustained long exposure despite nosebleed valuations in some names
“I think AI is real it's probably it could be as transformative as the Internet”
Druckenmiller on How AI is Dominating His Long Portfolio
2023-06-07
Japan Equities
bullish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Japan is showing broad market breadth, apparent resolution of deflation, genuine commitment to shareholder value, and loose monetary policy that is still accommodative despite rising inflation
“they look like they're solving deflation plus so you're getting nominal growth”
90d +1.8% · 180d +2.0% · 1y +15.1%
Druckenmiller on How AI is Dominating His Long Portfolio
2023-06-07
China Equities
bearish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Xi Jinping's anti-entrepreneurial, non-capitalist policies have structurally undermined the dynamism that drove China's growth, making the economy undynamic over the next 10-15 years
“I unless there's a change in power there at the top I think that's going to be a very undynamic economy”
90d -0.5% · 180d +11.6% · 1y -1.5%
Druckenmiller on How AI is Dominating His Long Portfolio
2023-06-07
AI THEME EQUITIES
bullish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Unlike crypto, generative AI is real and could be as transformative as the internet, supporting a broad long bias in AI-exposed equities
“I think AI is real it's probably it could be as transformative as the Internet”
Druckenmiller on How AI is Dominating His Long Portfolio
2023-05-10
long GOLD / long SILVER
basket
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Monetary and fiscal authorities are at the end of their rope and foreign central banks are actively diversifying away from dollar reserves, supporting precious metals even against their historical hard-landing underperformance
“we own gold and silver right now”
90d -7.8% · 180d -6.2% · 1y +12.9%
Sohn 2023 | Kiril Sokoloff in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller
AI is as transformative as the internet and Nvidia is the direct primary infrastructure beneficiary; even in a severe recession the company's growth trajectory may keep the stock resilient
“it's not even clear to me if we had a really bad recession that Nvidia would even go down”
90d +54.7% · 180d +58.4% · 1y +207.4%
Sohn 2023 | Kiril Sokoloff in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller
Said again: 2023-06-07 (Stanley Druckenmiller)
Microsoft is one of the two clearest vehicles to participate in AI, which Druckenmiller believes will be as broadly impactful on productivity as the internet was
“my firm has only been able to participate in AI by owning Nvidia and Microsoft”
90d +4.6% · 180d +14.7% · 1y +33.1%
Sohn 2023 | Kiril Sokoloff in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller
Fed will likely reverse course aggressively in a hard landing, printing money and debasing the dollar, making gold the hedge against renewed monetary debasement
“I'm also on gold obviously for the same reasons”
90d -0.8% · 180d -1.0% · 1y +17.3%
2023-04-27
SHORT JGBS
bearish
video
Japan has a real inflation problem while the BOJ keeps rates pinned near zero, creating a risk/reward asymmetry comparable to US 2-year treasuries in 2021 when rates were at 15bps with 30% money growth
“I think the risk reward is ridiculous — it reminds me a little of the two-year two years ago”
2023-04-27
RUSSELL 2000 / OLD-ECONOMY CYCLICALS
bearish
video
Hard landing expected later in 2023 will disproportionately hurt small-cap and economically sensitive names that lack the secular AI tailwind buffering mega-cap tech
“I'd be short the economy — something pure like Russell 2000... old economy economically sensitive stuff”
Dollar weaponization is prompting countries to question USD reserve status, and future US tightening will be less aggressive than foreign central banks, so a multi-year dollar downtrend has begun
“the only space I have any risk on right now is in the US dollar”
90d -0.9% · 180d -7.8% · 1y -10.9%
Said again: 2023-05-10 (Stanley Druckenmiller)
2022-10-20
RISK ASSETS BROADLY
bearish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Liquidity shrinkage accelerates into Q1 2023 as the TGA drawdown exhausts and QT reaches full force following the largest asset bubble in history, making risk/reward of owning assets poor and a hard landing by end of 2023 the base case
“the risk reward of owning assets doesn't make a lot of sense”
Investing icon Stanley Druckenmiller sits down with Joe Kernen at CNBC's Delivering Alpha
Every 40-year secular tailwind has reversed simultaneously — QE flipping to QT, globalization unwinding into deglobalization, and valuations at 18-19x inflated earnings vs 8x depressed earnings in 1982 — making a decade of flat nominal returns the central…
“my central forecast the Dow won't be much higher in 10 years than it is today”
Investing icon Stanley Druckenmiller sits down with Joe Kernen at CNBC's Delivering Alpha
2022-10-20
European Equities
bearish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Natural gas prices at roughly 300 oil-equivalent, combined with monetary tightening across Europe, make recession essentially certain while energy constraints threaten manufacturing capacity through winter
“of course there's going to be a recession”
90d -27.5% · 180d -34.2% · 1y -21.5%
Investing icon Stanley Druckenmiller sits down with Joe Kernen at CNBC's Delivering Alpha
2022-10-20
MEDICAL ADVANCES / BIOTECH (CANCER, NEUROSCIENCE)
bullish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Scientific breakthroughs in cancer treatment and neural progress represent the one secular tailwind that has not reversed alongside the macro headwinds facing every other asset class
“I'm wildly bullish on medical advances”
Investing icon Stanley Druckenmiller sits down with Joe Kernen at CNBC's Delivering Alpha
2022-06-10
long GOLD / short BITCOIN
pair
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Bitcoin and gold both hedge monetary irresponsibility but behave differently by regime: Bitcoin outperforms in inflationary bull markets (risk-on tech-investor base), gold outperforms in stagflationary bear markets (safe-haven base), and the current…
“if it's in a bear phase for other assets, you want to own gold”
90d +12.3% · 180d +18.7% · 1y +7.6%
Sohn 2022 | John Collison in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller
2020-01-06
long TECH DISRUPTORS (CLOUD/PLATFORM LEADERS) / short TECH DISRUPTED (LEGACY INCUMBENTS)
pair
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Disruptive tech companies (cloud, platform) are taking revenue and margin share from legacy incumbents, making the pair a structural winner independent of broad market direction; two-year track record confirmed and theme unchanged despite October volatility
“we've been long the disruptors and short the disrupted which has worked beautifully over two years”
Stanley Druckenmiller on Economy, Stocks, Bonds, Trump, Fed: Full Interview
Corporate cloud adoption is only in the second inning; in a low-growth, low-rate environment high-revenue-growth compounders are worth more, not less, and demand actually rises in a mild recession as cost-cutting accelerates cloud migration
“they've got maybe they're in the second inning of a nine inning game as corporate America has to convert to the cloud”
90d +4.2% · 180d +33.2% · 1y +38.5%
Stanley Druckenmiller on Economy, Stocks, Bonds, Trump, Fed: Full Interview
2020-01-06
High Yield
bearish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Eight years of free money pushed investors into credit; HY yields at 5-6% on instruments that should yield 8-9% in a late-cycle environment with GE CDS at 200bps, IBM at 80bps, and HY indexes moving offer terrible risk/reward
“five or six percent absolute nominal yields for stuff that normally would be eight or nine...the risk reward is just terrible in credit”
90d +13.3% · 180d +3.6% · 1y -4.1%
Stanley Druckenmiller on Economy, Stocks, Bonds, Trump, Fed: Full Interview
Banks are rate-dependent equities that need rising rates to benefit, but in a slowing economy where the Fed will ultimately ease, rates fall and bank earnings are impaired — owning them just because they fall less than the market is not a reason to own them
“we're short all the financials...why in the world would you buy a group that needs rates to go up to own it”
90d +43.0% · 180d +33.3% · 1y +7.1%
Stanley Druckenmiller on Economy, Stocks, Bonds, Trump, Fed: Full Interview
2019-11-03
short USD / short USD
basket
Paul Tudor Jones · video
US fiscal expansion and impending Fed normalization create a massive monetary/fiscal policy divergence versus a still-QE ECB and a yield-curve-control BOJ, making equally-weighted short EUR/USD and short JPY/USD a high-conviction multi-year dollar-long trend…
“it's not just a rate trade it's a dollar play”
90d -1.0% · 180d -2.5% · 1y +2.9%
Stanley Druckenmiller & Paul Tudor Jones Interview Robin Hood Conference (2016)
European economy is performing fine with no deflation yet Draghi maintains -40bps rates and debates €60-80bn/month QE on top; with roughly 4-5% nominal GDP growth the current yield levels are irrational and unsustainable
“It's unbelievable to me that Mario Draghi has been whining about Janet Yellen...sitting there on minus 40 basis points”
90d -2.4% · 180d -9.9% · 1y -9.1%
Stanley Druckenmiller & Paul Tudor Jones Interview Robin Hood Conference (2016)
2019-11-03
Japan Equities
bullish
Paul Tudor Jones · video
Japan is a value play whose BOJ ran the most counterproductive policy in history — forced to ease when conditions improve and tighten when deflationary — and any unwinding of that regime combined with yen depreciation feeding inflation creates a powerful…
“I like Japan because it's a value play”
90d -1.3% · 180d -13.8% · 1y +0.6%
Stanley Druckenmiller & Paul Tudor Jones Interview Robin Hood Conference (2016)
2019-06-05
long CLOUD AND SAAS SMALL-CAPS / short DISRUPTED LEGACY BUSINESSES (RETAIL, OLD-ECONOMY)
pair
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Long secular-growth disruptors (cloud, SaaS) that can compound in a 1% nominal-growth world while shorting legacy 'disrupted' businesses whose models are being structurally eroded — the pair works in both fast and slow economies
“long disruptors and short disrupted for like three or four years now”
Stanley Druckenmiller Interview - The Economic Club of New York (2019)
Fed likely to cut 50-100bp within a year as economy shows deteriorating corporate profits, trade-war headwinds, and QT drag — 2-year yield could go to zero within 18 months, making it a one-way carry bet on the short end
“I could easily see them going to zero in the next year and a half easily”
90d +5.4% · 180d +3.0% · 1y +12.5%
Stanley Druckenmiller Interview - The Economic Club of New York (2019)
Alibaba is a domestic Chinese disruptor whose growth rates are unlikely to be materially impaired by US tariffs given the depth of China's internal consumer market
“maybe I'm an idiot but I own Alibaba”
90d +13.7% · 180d +29.4% · 1y +43.8%
Stanley Druckenmiller Interview - The Economic Club of New York (2019)
2019-06-05
PING AN INSURANCE
bullish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Ping An is a domestically-oriented Chinese financial company with no meaningful tariff exposure, making it an insulated way to own Chinese growth
“pingyang the insurance company I don't see how tariffs are going to kill that”
Stanley Druckenmiller Interview - The Economic Club of New York (2019)
2018-12-20
long MSFT / long NOW / long WDAY / long CRM
basket
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Cloud software companies are in the early innings of mandatory corporate migration to the cloud; in a slow-growth low-rate environment their durable 20-30% revenue growth is worth more, and a mild recession actually accelerates demand as enterprises use cloud…
“they've got maybe they're in the second inning of a nine inning game as corporate America has to convert to the cloud”
Billionaire Investor Stan Druckenmiller 2018 Full Interview
2018-12-20
long TECH DISRUPTORS / short TECH DISRUPTED (LEGACY INCUMBENTS)
pair
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Technology disruptors are structurally taking revenue and margin share from legacy incumbents; the disrupted trade at low valuations that attract value buyers temporarily but those rallies are noise — the secular direction of earnings is diverging
“we've been long the disruptors and short the disrupted which has worked beautifully over two years...we have not changed that theme”
Billionaire Investor Stan Druckenmiller 2018 Full Interview
2018-12-20
High Yield
bearish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Eight years of free money pushed credit spreads to levels (5-6% yields) that should be 8-9% given underlying risk; as the debt build-up unwinds in a slowing economy, spread widening will be severe and the risk/reward is terrible for longs
“five or six percent absolute nominal yields for stuff that normally would be eight or nine...the risk reward just terrible in credit”
Billionaire Investor Stan Druckenmiller 2018 Full Interview
2018-12-20
CYCLICAL AND VALUE STOCKS
short
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Inside-market indicators — autos -30%, homebuilders -35%, retail -20%, Russell 2000 -20% — are pricing in an economic deterioration the headline S&P masks via defensive-stock strength, the same pattern that preceded the prior four recessions
“plenty of shorts...centered around the cyclical and the value area for all the reasons I've told you”
Billionaire Investor Stan Druckenmiller 2018 Full Interview
Showing the 60 most recent of 65 tracked stances.
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