Investors / stance tracking
What Steve Hanke is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University
Economist
14 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-20, most recently 2026-08-06. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Steve Hanke's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Steve Hanke is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
14
tracked stances
8
themes
0
side flips
2026-08-06
last heard
Returns 90d +1.1% 40% correct · 10 calls · 180d +3.3% 30% correct · 10 calls · 1y +1.9% 40% correct · 10 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-25 | USD | bearish | -0.8% | -3.2% | -8.7% |
| 2025-06-25 | SPX | bearish | -9.5% | -13.4% | -22.3% |
| 2025-06-25 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -3.2% | -2.4% | -4.4% |
| 2025-06-25 | GOLD | bullish | +12.8% | +32.9% | +20.3% |
| 2025-03-07 | SPX | bearish | -3.3% | -12.4% | -19.2% |
| 2025-03-07 | OIL | bearish | +3.0% | -3.8% | -44.7% |
| 2025-03-07 | GOLD | bullish | +15.3% | +22.3% | +76.1% |
| 2024-11-21 | SPX | bearish | -3.6% | -0.5% | -12.4% |
| 2024-08-20 | USTS | bullish | -3.3% | -3.1% | +1.6% |
| 2024-08-20 | GOLD | bullish | +3.7% | +16.5% | +32.7% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 4 | 4 bearish | 2026-08-06 | |
| GOLD | 3 | 3 bullish | 2025-06-25 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-08-06 | |
| AGRICULTURAL LAND | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-08-20 | |
| LIVESTOCK / CATTLE | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-03-07 | |
| OIL | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-03-07 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-08-06
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
Divisia M4 money supply growing at 6.7% (above the 5-6% range consistent with 2% inflation target), compounded by Trump tariffs and US-Iran war spending, is pushing bond yields higher and bond prices lower with bond vigilantes now active
“investing in bonds is not a very good idea because if the yields go up, the bond price goes down”
The Bond Market Is Flashing a Major Warning | Steve Hanke
US stock market is in a bubble by every valuation measure, and rising interest rates — driven by re-emerging inflation and fiscal deterioration — are historically the catalyst that pops equity bubbles by raising discount rates on future cash flows
“higher interest rates are usually associated with bubbles popping. Look out below.”
The Bond Market Is Flashing a Major Warning | Steve Hanke
2025-06-25
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
Real yields are rising (from negative toward +2–3%) and the Big Beautiful Bill will flood the market with new supply, ending the 40-year bond bull market that broke in 2022
“The bull market is in fact gone…real yields going up and now they're clearly outside of this long trend since 1980”
90d -3.2% · 180d -2.4% · 1y -4.4%
Steve Hanke: Recession Is Coming — The Fed, Trump & Wall Street Are Blind
Hanke's bubble detector is flashing a signal not seen since the 2001 dot-com peak; the bubble must eventually deflate via pop or slow leak while the macro backdrop deteriorates with 80–90% recession probability
“We haven't seen this kind of thing since 2001 where we were in a tech bubble, and you know what happened then.”
90d -9.5% · 180d -13.4% · 1y -22.3%
Steve Hanke: Recession Is Coming — The Fed, Trump & Wall Street Are Blind
Anemic money supply growth, regime uncertainty, and fiscal expansion create a sustained debasement environment that drives gold higher
“You never have enough gold. Where it's going I don't know. But it's going up.”
90d +12.8% · 180d +32.9% · 1y +20.3%
Steve Hanke: Recession Is Coming — The Fed, Trump & Wall Street Are Blind
Dollar-euro fair value is 1.20–1.40 per Hanke's model; at ~1.15 the dollar remains overvalued and should revert as money supply dynamics pressure the currency
“I think it's going to move back into that fair value range of 1.20 to 1.40”
90d -0.8% · 180d -3.2% · 1y -8.7%
Steve Hanke: Recession Is Coming — The Fed, Trump & Wall Street Are Blind
Hanke's 'bubble detector' — stocks-vs-bonds relative valuation — is at an all-time high, a level historically preceding recessions and 15–30% market drawdowns, compounded by a money-supply contraction that has only occurred four times since 1913, each…
“the bubble detector has the highest reading it's had ever, it's an all-time high”
90d -3.3% · 180d -12.4% · 1y -19.2%
Steve Hanke, Tariffs and the Recession of 2025
Gold is in a sustained bull market with no signs of reversal, driven by monetary instability and ongoing fiscal imbalances that Hanke sees persisting
“it's in a bull market it's going to stay in a bull market, I see no signs of fading away there”
90d +15.3% · 180d +22.3% · 1y +76.1%
Steve Hanke, Tariffs and the Recession of 2025
2025-03-07
LIVESTOCK / CATTLE
bullish
Wealthion · video
US cattle herd sizes are declining, contracting supply and driving prices higher via straightforward supply-demand mechanics
“livestock I'm biased towards it going up because herd size is going down, you got fewer cattle, price goes up”
Steve Hanke, Tariffs and the Recession of 2025
OPEC holds substantial excess capacity while non-OPEC producers can cover all incremental global demand growth, creating persistent supply pressure that caps prices
“gold is going up oil is going down, that's all I have to know for now”
90d +3.0% · 180d -3.8% · 1y -44.7%
Steve Hanke, Tariffs and the Recession of 2025
M2 money supply has contracted and is now growing at only 2.6% vs the ~6% needed to hit the Fed's 2% target, signaling a 2025 recession, while the index at 5900-6000 does not price in tariff drag, unresolved geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East…
“I think the S&P is pretty pricey right now — that's not included, not that's not priced into the market at all”
90d -3.6% · 180d -0.5% · 1y -12.4%
Steve Hanke on the Fed’s Failures, Trump’s Win, and Recession in 2025
Said again: 2024-11-23 (Wealthion), 2024-12-26 (Wealthion)
Quantity theory of money predicts continued disinflation, which will pull 10-year yields further below their near-5% peak, generating additional capital gains on top of the existing yield
“I still think there's juice in that lemon”
90d -3.3% · 180d -3.1% · 1y +1.6%
Steve Hanke: The Fed is Behind the Curve - Recession is Inevitable
Aggressive Fed rate cuts ahead will weaken the dollar, and long-run structural demand makes gold a safe-haven holding as recession unfolds
“it's going up... I've been a gold bull for a long time”
90d +3.7% · 180d +16.5% · 1y +32.7%
Steve Hanke: The Fed is Behind the Curve - Recession is Inevitable
2024-08-20
AGRICULTURAL LAND
bullish
Wealthion · video
Long-duration real asset provides a durable store of value as a safe allocation alongside bonds and gold in a recessionary, dollar-weakening environment
“long term I've always liked agricultural land”
Steve Hanke: The Fed is Behind the Curve - Recession is Inevitable
Idea Scout Weekly
Every Sunday: who said what across the tape we track — 1766 voices, 5,177 episodes and articles — with side-flips and points of disagreement called out. Free. How we track it.
Free · double opt-in · unsubscribe in one click