Investors / stance tracking
What Tobias Carlisle is saying
Founder & CIO, Acquirers Funds
14 dated public stances tracked since 2019-11-01, most recently 2026-06-21. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Tobias Carlisle's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Tobias Carlisle is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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14
tracked stances
13
themes
0
side flips
2026-06-21
last heard
Returns 90d -2.6% (n=13) · 180d +0.7% (n=13) · 1y -2.2% (n=11)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-06-21 | |
| BRBR | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-02-28 | |
| BRK | 1 | 1 bullish | 2020-05-31 | |
| CROX | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-11-08 | |
| DEEP VALUE EQUITIES | 1 | 1 bullish | 2019-11-06 | |
| DOLAN BRANDS | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-06-21 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-06-21
BKNG
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
Booking's capital-light model, specialized supplier relationships, and high switching costs make full AI disintermediation unlikely, while AI-fear-driven selloff (~30% off highs) creates a discount to his ~$220 DCF value vs ~$167 current price
“Booking is a reasonable risk-adjusted bet at these levels because it's a little bit depressed with the fear of LLMs”
Meta, Adobe, & Booking Holdings | Stock Analysis & Valuation (TIP825)
2026-06-21
DOLAN BRANDS
owns
We Study Billionaires · video
Protein RTD drink company trading at ~0.4x P/S vs 5-year average 1.6x and ~6.5x earnings vs 30x historical, with aggressive buybacks and secular protein demand tailwind; DCF range $20-70 vs ~$8 stock price warrants holding despite ~80% drawdown
“I still think it's pretty good value here. I continue to hold it for the foreseeable future”
Meta, Adobe, & Booking Holdings | Stock Analysis & Valuation (TIP825)
2026-06-21
SMALL AND MICRO-CAP DEEP VALUE EQUITIES
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
AI-narrative rotation has pulled capital away from small/micro-cap deep value stocks whose business fundamentals are actually inflecting upward after an extended weak-consumer period, creating the widest value spreads vs the market Carlisle has seen since…
“the spreads between deep value and the market are extreme at the moment”
Meta, Adobe, & Booking Holdings | Stock Analysis & Valuation (TIP825)
2026-02-28
BRBR
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
BellRing Brands has fallen from $80 to $17 with no identifiable fundamental catalyst, yet still generates an 11% free cash flow yield with ~80% ROIC, established Premier Protein brand with hard-won distribution, and is a natural private-equity acquisition…
“at $17 it's too cheap by about half — 11% free cash flow yield”
90d -53.9% · 180d -43.5%
Berkshire Hathaway, Moody's, & BellRing Brands | Stock Analysis & Valuation (TIP795)
2026-02-28
SMALL/MICRO-CAP VALUE EQUITIES
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
Since Q3 last year small has begun outperforming large and value outperforming growth — the same historical rotation that ended every prior technology-valuation mania (Nifty 50, dot-com) — making deep-value small and midcap the highest-expected-return…
“since Q3 last year small has started outperforming large, value started outperforming growth”
Berkshire Hathaway, Moody's, & BellRing Brands | Stock Analysis & Valuation (TIP795)
2025-11-08
CROX
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
Footwear brand generating ~$1B annual free cash flow at a $4.3B market cap (6x PE, 21% FCF yield) with a $1.3B buyback authorization equal to 25% of outstanding shares, growing 9% overall and 64% in China, with Hey Dude impairment and tariff uncertainty…
“I think the cheapness here outweighs the risks — it's throwing off a billion dollars in free cash flow”
90d +15.8% · 180d +40.5%
Mastermind Discussion Q4 2025 | Sanofi, Remitly & Crocs Stock Deep Dive (TIP767)
2025-02-01
VRSN
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
Monopoly on .com/.net domain registration with contract renewed through 2030 provides highly predictable cash flows, ~10% EPS growth via price increases and consistent share buybacks, and low-risk ~10% compound returns over the contract period
“it could be like 10% compound pretty consistently for probably at least the next five or six years”
90d +31.5% · 180d +24.8% · 1y +17.2%
Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 | Ulta Beauty, VeriSign, and Lifco | Bull & Bear Discussion (TIP696)
2024-09-14
VIRT
owns
We Study Billionaires · video
Virtu Financial is a capital-light market maker generating 10%+ shareholder yield (3.5% dividend plus buybacks) that has shrunk shares from 122M to 87M since 2020, trading at ~7.4x EV/EBITDA with free cash flow flowing almost entirely to shareholders
“I think it's a fair risk adjusted bet here and it continues to be in my portfolios”
90d +13.2% · 180d +6.8% · 1y +14.5%
Mastermind Discussion Q3 2024 | Nintendo, Virtu Financial, and Betsson (TIP660)
2020-05-31
BRK
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
Berkshire offers roughly 13% compounded forward returns driven by a relatively cheap Apple stake and $130B+ in cash ready to deploy if a second market leg down materializes
“I actually think the forward return could be something like 13 percent compounded for like five to ten years”
TIP299: Mastermind Discussion 2Q 2020
2020-05-31
MKL
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
Markel trades near decade-low price-to-book ratios with a bulletproof balance sheet and Buffett-style management under Tom Gaynor, offering a longer growth runway than Berkshire at a fraction of its size
“it's phenomenally good value where it is — bulletproof balance sheet run by really high integrity high performance manager”
90d +21.1% · 180d +11.9% · 1y +36.9%
TIP299: Mastermind Discussion 2Q 2020
2019-11-06
GOOS
bearish
The Acquirers Podcast · video
Canada Goose is a $500 luxury jacket business — not a SaaS compounder — facing a weakening consumer economy with a weak balance sheet, making it a high-multiple discretionary name vulnerable to momentum breakdown
“It's a $500 jacket in a weakening economy with not a great balance sheet.”
90d +20.8% · 180d +43.2% · 1y +18.1%
Acquirers Funds: Tobias Carlisle chats deep value with Ian Cassel on The Acquirers Podcast
2019-11-06
NFLX
bearish
The Acquirers Podcast · video
Netflix's six-to-eight-year momentum has broken — once the stock stops being up over 12 months, Carlisle initiates a small short on companies that are formerly glamorous growth stories but have run out of runway
“Netflix has had this enormous momentum for the last six, eight years. And it doesn't have it anymore.”
90d -27.9% · 180d -48.4% · 1y -78.0%
Acquirers Funds: Tobias Carlisle chats deep value with Ian Cassel on The Acquirers Podcast
2019-11-06
DEEP VALUE EQUITIES
bullish
The Acquirers Podcast · video
A decade of value underperformance — including the late-1990s analogue — sets up mean reversion, making now one of the best entry points for deep-value positioning in twenty years
“This could be one of the best opportunities in the last 20 years to be a value investor.”
Acquirers Funds: Tobias Carlisle chats deep value with Ian Cassel on The Acquirers Podcast
2019-11-01
long VALUE STOCKS / short GROWTH / EXPENSIVE STOCKS
pair
The Acquirers Podcast · video
Expensive/growth stocks are trading at roughly 3-4x their long-run valuation mean while cheap/value stocks are only ~50% rich to their mean, making the spread extreme enough to favour a long-short structure that captures relative convergence even if both legs…
“the expensive side is three or four times its long-run mean”
Practical Quant: Jack Forehand on applied value with Tobias Carlisle on The Acquirers Podcast
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