Investors / stance tracking
What Tobias Carlisle is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowFounder & CIO, Acquirers Funds
27 dated public stances tracked since 2017-11-02, most recently 2026-10-22. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Tobias Carlisle's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Tobias Carlisle is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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27
tracked stances
25
themes
0
side flips
2026-10-22
last heard
Returns 90d +0.4% 53% correct · 15 calls · 180d +9.5% 64% correct · 14 calls · 1y +16.0% 67% correct · 12 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | BKNG | bullish | +0.7% | — | — |
| 2026-02-28 | BRBR | bullish | -53.9% | -43.5% | — |
| 2025-11-08 | CROX | bullish | +15.8% | +40.5% | — |
| 2025-02-01 | VRSN | bullish | +31.5% | +24.8% | +17.2% |
| 2024-12-07 | AMR | bullish | -42.8% | -53.7% | -24.9% |
| 2024-09-14 | VIRT | owns | +13.2% | +6.8% | +14.5% |
| 2024-05-18 | PLTK | bullish | -23.0% | -3.7% | -45.5% |
| 2024-02-24 | MLI | bullish | +17.1% | +37.4% | +59.1% |
| 2023-02-25 | AMGN | bullish | -6.6% | +11.4% | +26.3% |
| 2022-11-19 | META | bullish | +57.4% | +124.7% | +209.4% |
| 2022-11-19 | CL | owns | -2.5% | +4.9% | +0.7% |
| 2020-05-31 | MKL | bullish | +21.1% | +11.9% | +36.9% |
| 2020-05-18 | SPX | bearish | -15.1% | -24.0% | -41.9% |
| 2019-11-06 | NFLX | bearish | -27.9% | -48.4% | -78.0% |
| 2019-11-06 | GOOS | bearish | +20.8% | +43.2% | +18.1% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGO | 1 | 1 bullish | 2017-11-02 | |
| AGTC | 1 | 1 bullish | 2017-11-02 | |
| AMGN | 1 | 1 bullish | 2023-02-25 | |
| AMR | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-12-07 | |
| BKNG | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-06-21 | |
| BRBR | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-02-28 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-22
MDY
bullish
The Acquirers Podcast (feed) · video
The S&P 400 mid-cap index and the bottom 800 of the Russell 1000 are at multi-decade relative lows versus mega-cap AI-heavy indexes, offering attractive absolute returns for patient investors willing to look outside the concentrated top of the market
“there are some good opportunities, I think, outside of the major indexes”
AI is in a Mania… But Value is Finally Waking Up
High-quality consumer staples like McDonald's and Pepsi have been sold off hard as former bond proxies in a rising-rate environment, creating historically cheap valuations with real long-term opportunity
“quality like Pepsi, quality like McDonald's... trading at some of the cheaper valuations you've seen”
MGM and VICI: Finding Value in the Las Vegas Selloff | Value Options Podcast
Booking's capital-light model, specialized supplier relationships, and high switching costs make full AI disintermediation unlikely, while AI-fear-driven selloff (~30% off highs) creates a discount to his ~$220 DCF value vs ~$167 current price
“Booking is a reasonable risk-adjusted bet at these levels because it's a little bit depressed with the fear of LLMs”
90d +0.7%
Meta, Adobe, & Booking Holdings | Stock Analysis & Valuation (TIP825)
2026-06-21
DOLAN BRANDS
owns
We Study Billionaires · video
Protein RTD drink company trading at ~0.4x P/S vs 5-year average 1.6x and ~6.5x earnings vs 30x historical, with aggressive buybacks and secular protein demand tailwind; DCF range $20-70 vs ~$8 stock price warrants holding despite ~80% drawdown
“I still think it's pretty good value here. I continue to hold it for the foreseeable future”
Meta, Adobe, & Booking Holdings | Stock Analysis & Valuation (TIP825)
2026-06-21
SMALL AND MICRO-CAP DEEP VALUE EQUITIES
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
AI-narrative rotation has pulled capital away from small/micro-cap deep value stocks whose business fundamentals are actually inflecting upward after an extended weak-consumer period, creating the widest value spreads vs the market Carlisle has seen since…
“the spreads between deep value and the market are extreme at the moment”
Meta, Adobe, & Booking Holdings | Stock Analysis & Valuation (TIP825)
BellRing Brands has fallen from $80 to $17 with no identifiable fundamental catalyst, yet still generates an 11% free cash flow yield with ~80% ROIC, established Premier Protein brand with hard-won distribution, and is a natural private-equity acquisition…
“at $17 it's too cheap by about half — 11% free cash flow yield”
90d -53.9% · 180d -43.5%
Berkshire Hathaway, Moody's, & BellRing Brands | Stock Analysis & Valuation (TIP795)
2026-02-28
SMALL/MICRO-CAP VALUE EQUITIES
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
Since Q3 last year small has begun outperforming large and value outperforming growth — the same historical rotation that ended every prior technology-valuation mania (Nifty 50, dot-com) — making deep-value small and midcap the highest-expected-return…
“since Q3 last year small has started outperforming large, value started outperforming growth”
Berkshire Hathaway, Moody's, & BellRing Brands | Stock Analysis & Valuation (TIP795)
Footwear brand generating ~$1B annual free cash flow at a $4.3B market cap (6x PE, 21% FCF yield) with a $1.3B buyback authorization equal to 25% of outstanding shares, growing 9% overall and 64% in China, with Hey Dude impairment and tariff uncertainty…
“I think the cheapness here outweighs the risks — it's throwing off a billion dollars in free cash flow”
90d +15.8% · 180d +40.5%
Mastermind Discussion Q4 2025 | Sanofi, Remitly & Crocs Stock Deep Dive (TIP767)
Monopoly on .com/.net domain registration with contract renewed through 2030 provides highly predictable cash flows, ~10% EPS growth via price increases and consistent share buybacks, and low-risk ~10% compound returns over the contract period
“it could be like 10% compound pretty consistently for probably at least the next five or six years”
90d +31.5% · 180d +24.8% · 1y +17.2%
Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 | Ulta Beauty, VeriSign, and Lifco | Bull & Bear Discussion (TIP696)
2024-12-07
AMR
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
Alpha Metallurgical Resources trades at a deep discount to ~$400 fair value with a pristine balance sheet ($500M cash, $7M debt) and has compounded value through a 30% share-count reduction while met coal faces structural demand through 2050 from steel…
“I think it's probably fair value is around 400 something like that”
90d -42.8% · 180d -53.7% · 1y -24.9%
Mastermind Discussion Q4 2024 | Exploring Value, Risks, and Opportunities (TIP681)
2024-09-14
VIRT
owns
We Study Billionaires · video
Virtu Financial is a capital-light market maker generating 10%+ shareholder yield (3.5% dividend plus buybacks) that has shrunk shares from 122M to 87M since 2020, trading at ~7.4x EV/EBITDA with free cash flow flowing almost entirely to shareholders
“I think it's a fair risk adjusted bet here and it continues to be in my portfolios”
90d +13.2% · 180d +6.8% · 1y +14.5%
Mastermind Discussion Q3 2024 | Nintendo, Virtu Financial, and Betsson (TIP660)
2024-05-18
PLTK
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
Playtika is down 80% from its IPO and trades at ~9.5x FCF with 70%+ gross margins and a founder-CEO deploying excess cash via a 5.5% dividend and acquisitions, making it cheap enough that 2x upside still wouldn't look expensive
“I can see that stock price up two times from here and I still don't think it would be a particularly expensive company”
90d -23.0% · 180d -3.7% · 1y -45.5%
Mastermind Discussion Q2 2024 | Burberry, ICICI Bank, & Playtika Stock Analysis (TIP632)
Mueller Industries trades under 5x EV/EBIT with $1.1B in cash and 20-30% long-run ROIC, making it quantitatively cheap even if earnings compress as the housing boom normalizes and Chinese competition returns
“it's a pretty good business...under five here which is very cheap”
90d +17.1% · 180d +37.4% · 1y +59.1%
Mastermind Discussion Q1 2024 | Spotify, Disney, & Mueller Industries (TIP610)
Amgen is quantitatively cheap at a 7%+ FCF yield to enterprise value — well above the 4.5% 10-year treasury — while returning capital aggressively (26% of shares retired since 2018, 3.2% dividend yield, 11% CAGR dividend growth) and is priced for permanent…
“I think it's unlikely that revenues decline I think it's much more likely that revenues grow even if they just grow slowly from here”
90d -6.6% · 180d +11.4% · 1y +26.3%
Mastermind Q1 2023 | Disney, Spotify, Amgen Stocks & ChatGPT Discussion (TIP528)
Colgate is temporarily under-earning (ROIC 16% vs historical 22-23%) due to transitory cost headwinds in raw materials, transport, and wages; as those reverse the margin expansion falls quickly to the bottom line, supporting mid-teens compounded returns plus…
“I'm happy to hold this thing at a mid-tens return given that the downside is virtually nil but there is that optionality built into it”
90d -2.5% · 180d +4.9% · 1y +0.7%
Mastermind Q4 2022 w/ Hari Ramachandra & Tobias Carlisle (TIP496)
Quantitative screen shows Meta at high single-digit price-to-FCF with an intrinsic value of ~$300-340 versus a ~$90 price; Zuckerberg's capital-allocation track record (Instagram, WhatsApp) and the cash-flow engine justify the position even accepting…
“at 90 bucks where your upside could be 300 plus I think you just have to have a bet on Zuck and that mind control machine”
90d +57.4% · 180d +124.7% · 1y +209.4%
Mastermind Q4 2022 w/ Hari Ramachandra & Tobias Carlisle (TIP496)
2020-05-31
MKL
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
Markel trades near decade-low price-to-book ratios with a bulletproof balance sheet and Buffett-style management under Tom Gaynor, offering a longer growth runway than Berkshire at a fraction of its size
“it's phenomenally good value where it is — bulletproof balance sheet run by really high integrity high performance manager”
90d +21.1% · 180d +11.9% · 1y +36.9%
TIP299: Mastermind Discussion 2Q 2020
2020-05-18
BRK
owns
The Acquirers Podcast · video
Berkshire reached a historically rare cheapness level around March 20, 2020 that was compelling even for a deep-value investor who typically requires extreme discounts before buying.
“the first time I've ever bought Berkshire was on the 20th of March — I've just never seen it that cheap”
Tulip Mania: Chris Bloomstran on Buffett and Berkshire with Tobias Carlisle on The Acquirers Podcast
Said again: 2020-05-31 (We Study Billionaires)
S&P 500 fair value on normalized earnings is approximately $1,800, implying the index at ~$3,000 is roughly 40% overvalued.
“1800 is my estimate for fair value on the S&P 500”
90d -15.1% · 180d -24.0% · 1y -41.9%
Tulip Mania: Chris Bloomstran on Buffett and Berkshire with Tobias Carlisle on The Acquirers Podcast
2019-11-06
GOOS
bearish
The Acquirers Podcast · video
Canada Goose is a $500 luxury jacket business — not a SaaS compounder — facing a weakening consumer economy with a weak balance sheet, making it a high-multiple discretionary name vulnerable to momentum breakdown
“It's a $500 jacket in a weakening economy with not a great balance sheet.”
90d +20.8% · 180d +43.2% · 1y +18.1%
Acquirers Funds: Tobias Carlisle chats deep value with Ian Cassel on The Acquirers Podcast
Netflix's six-to-eight-year momentum has broken — once the stock stops being up over 12 months, Carlisle initiates a small short on companies that are formerly glamorous growth stories but have run out of runway
“Netflix has had this enormous momentum for the last six, eight years. And it doesn't have it anymore.”
90d -27.9% · 180d -48.4% · 1y -78.0%
Acquirers Funds: Tobias Carlisle chats deep value with Ian Cassel on The Acquirers Podcast
2019-11-06
DEEP VALUE EQUITIES
bullish
The Acquirers Podcast · video
A decade of value underperformance — including the late-1990s analogue — sets up mean reversion, making now one of the best entry points for deep-value positioning in twenty years
“This could be one of the best opportunities in the last 20 years to be a value investor.”
Acquirers Funds: Tobias Carlisle chats deep value with Ian Cassel on The Acquirers Podcast
2019-11-01
long VALUE STOCKS / short GROWTH / EXPENSIVE STOCKS
pair
The Acquirers Podcast · video
Expensive/growth stocks are trading at roughly 3-4x their long-run valuation mean while cheap/value stocks are only ~50% rich to their mean, making the spread extreme enough to favour a long-short structure that captures relative convergence even if both legs…
“the expensive side is three or four times its long-run mean”
Practical Quant: Jack Forehand on applied value with Tobias Carlisle on The Acquirers Podcast
2017-11-02
long SINA / short WB
pair
Meb Faber · video
Sina trades at a persistent discount to its Weibo stake due to poor corporate governance, and a US activist now pushing for board representation is the hard catalyst to close the gap in a market-neutral structure
“you can be long Sina and you can short out the Weibo and you basically market neutral hoping that the two parts close up”
Tobias Carlisle - "In Order to Find Something Genuinely Undervalued... There's Always Somethin
Gilead had fallen ~50% from its peak and was trading at roughly 3x acquirer's multiple with a 'lazy' overcapitalized balance sheet, making a buyback, special dividend, or acquisition highly probable and providing a hard catalyst for price recovery
“I bought at very very cheap and I didn't know what was going to happen but I knew that something was going to happen”
Tobias Carlisle - "In Order to Find Something Genuinely Undervalued... There's Always Somethin
Assured Guaranty (monoline municipal bond insurer) is deeply discounted purely on Puerto Rico headline risk while management is exceptional and has bought back ~38% of shares outstanding, making the ugly headlines the source of opportunity rather than…
“it's really really ugly headlines they're really really smart management they have to be it's kind of like a listed hedge fund buying back its own stock”
Tobias Carlisle - "In Order to Find Something Genuinely Undervalued... There's Always Somethin
2017-11-02
AGTC
owns
Meb Faber · video
Net-cash biotech AGTC is trading at or below its cash value, providing hard downside protection while retaining free upside optionality on a potential drug approval catalyst
“we've got one right now a GTC it's a net cash cash burning biotech”
Tobias Carlisle - "In Order to Find Something Genuinely Undervalued... There's Always Somethin
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