Investors / stance tracking
What Vincent Deluard is saying
Global Macro Strategist, StoneX
15 dated public stances tracked since 2024-09-19, most recently 2025-08-04. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Vincent Deluard's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Vincent Deluard is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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15
tracked stances
7
themes
2
side flips
2025-08-04
last heard
Returns 90d +3.1% (n=12) · 180d +4.6% (n=12) · 1y +13.0% (n=12)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
SPX — bearish2025-03-12 → bullish2025-08-04
SPX — bullish2024-09-21 → bearish2025-03-12
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 4 | 3 bullish / 1 bearish | 2025-08-04 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 3 | 3 bearish | 2025-03-12 | |
| GOLD | 2 | 2 bullish | 2024-09-21 | |
| FED FUNDS RATE OPTIONS (HIGHER RATES IN 6 MONTHS) | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-09-19 | |
| SMALL CAP EQUITIES | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-09-19 | |
| SMALL-CAP EQUITIES | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-09-21 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2025-08-04
SPX
bullish
Hidden Forces · video
Fiscal dominance suppresses real interest rates, boosts corporate profits via government deficit spending, and keeps equity multiples elevated — replicating the late 1940s/early 1950s playbook where stocks outperformed despite rising inflation
“fiscal dominance is very good for stocks... you compress the cost and then the government deficit is no longer constrained”
90d +8.6% · 180d +10.8% · 1y +23.6%
Investing in a World of Permanent Stimulus | Vincent Deluard
2025-03-12
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Temporary artificial demand sources — TGA drawdown, primary dealer balance sheet bloat (~$450B vs $200B avg), and reverse repo depletion — will normalize, while structural deficit and declining foreign capital recycling push 10-year yields back toward 4.5-5%+
“the bottom in yields is in and the bottom in stock is not”
90d +3.4% · 180d -2.1% · 1y -1.1%
The Bottom Is In For Yields, NOT Equities | Vincent Deluard
2025-03-12
SPX
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Simultaneous fiscal tightening (state/local spending rolling over from 10%+ growth to contraction, tariffs as tax hikes), overvaluation, and global capital rotation away from US assets mean equities have not yet bottomed
“the bottom in yields is in and the bottom in stock is not”
The Bottom Is In For Yields, NOT Equities | Vincent Deluard
2025-03-12
USD
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Deglobalization and capital repatriation mean European and Japanese savings that previously flowed into USD-denominated assets (treasuries, then Mag-7 equities) are redirected domestically, structurally reducing dollar demand while US fiscal stance is…
“long long EUR long not just EUR but really rest of the world”
90d +3.2% · 180d +3.5% · 1y -1.1%
The Bottom Is In For Yields, NOT Equities | Vincent Deluard
2025-03-12
long SPX / short SPX
pair
Forward Guidance · video
US fiscal tightening and overvaluation contrast with European/Japanese fiscal expansion (Germany's 500B+ defense pivot, EU defense spending unlocked), creating a self-reinforcing capital repatriation cycle — European/Japanese savings that recycled into US…
“long not just EUR but really rest of the world — more rest of the world”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
The Bottom Is In For Yields, NOT Equities | Vincent Deluard
2024-09-21
SPX
bullish
Wealthion · video
50bp rate cut with 3% real GDP growth, near-record-low unemployment, and likely post-election fiscal expansion creates a fed put with a strike price far above historical precedent, strongly positive for nominal risk assets
“buy everything guys I mean it's the fed put but with a strike price that's like way above anything that made sense before”
90d +4.1% · 180d -0.4% · 1y +18.5%
Weekly Recap: Fed Cuts! China Slowdown, U.S. Fiscal Bomb & Crypto Eureka
2024-09-21
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
A hyper-reactive Fed front-loading cuts alongside reaccelerating shelter inflation, 3% real GDP growth, and likely fiscal easing post-election argues for a steeper curve with long rates rising materially from current levels
“I would be Max bearish on on duration at this point”
90d +9.2% · 180d +5.6% · 1y +6.2%
Weekly Recap: Fed Cuts! China Slowdown, U.S. Fiscal Bomb & Crypto Eureka
2024-09-21
GOLD
bullish
Wealthion · video
Fed cutting 50bps while markets are at all-time highs, unemployment near 50-year lows, and inflation above target signals a hyper-accommodative fed put that is very positive for real assets
“I would also look at gold”
90d -0.2% · 180d +15.7% · 1y +42.2%
Weekly Recap: Fed Cuts! China Slowdown, U.S. Fiscal Bomb & Crypto Eureka
2024-09-21
SMALL-CAP EQUITIES
bullish
Wealthion · video
Rate cuts disproportionately benefit small caps because they carry more short-duration floating-rate debt that can be refinanced cheaply, unlike large caps such as Apple which hold net cash and have long-dated fixed debt unaffected by near-term cuts
“lower rates probably help more small caps because most small caps have more debt”
Weekly Recap: Fed Cuts! China Slowdown, U.S. Fiscal Bomb & Crypto Eureka
2024-09-19
SPX
bullish
Wealthion · video
Fed cutting 50bps while real GDP grows at 3% and inflation sits above target creates an unusually permissive 'Fed put' with a strike price far above historical norms, making the environment unambiguously bullish for real claims on the economy
“of course buy everything guys, it's the fed put but with a strike price that's like way above anything that made sense before”
90d +3.0% · 180d -1.1% · 1y +18.0%
Fed Super-Sized Rate Cut! Vincent Deluard Analyzes the 50 bps Cut
2024-09-19
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
Bonds have already rallied ~15% as yields dropped 150bps, yet the economy is growing above potential, services inflation is structurally reset to 4–5%, and an aggressive Fed risks reigniting inflation and raising the term premium
“I would be Max bearish on on on duration at this point”
90d +8.9% · 180d +6.7% · 1y +6.4%
Fed Super-Sized Rate Cut! Vincent Deluard Analyzes the 50 bps Cut
2024-09-19
GOLD
bullish
Wealthion · video
Fed cutting aggressively while inflation remains structurally above target, combined with plausible fiscal dominance (Fed accommodating Treasury financing needs), makes gold the natural hedge for holders who may not own enough
“you don't own enough gold”
90d +0.0% · 180d +17.1% · 1y +41.8%
Fed Super-Sized Rate Cut! Vincent Deluard Analyzes the 50 bps Cut
2024-09-19
SMALL CAP EQUITIES
bullish
Wealthion · video
Rate cuts benefit small caps more than large cap tech because small caps carry more short-term floating-rate debt that can be refinanced at lower rates, while mega-caps like Apple hold vast cash and long-dated fixed debt unaffected by Fed moves
“lower rates probably help more small caps because most small caps have more debt”
Fed Super-Sized Rate Cut! Vincent Deluard Analyzes the 50 bps Cut
2024-09-19
FED FUNDS RATE OPTIONS (HIGHER RATES IN 6 MONTHS)
bullish
Wealthion · video
Market is pricing additional large cuts, but a structurally higher inflation environment raises the risk of a 'pivot from the pivot,' making options on a higher fed funds rate in six months very cheap and asymmetric
“options on on a higher fed funds rate in in six month, that's probably really really cheap right now”
Fed Super-Sized Rate Cut! Vincent Deluard Analyzes the 50 bps Cut
2024-09-19
long USTS / short USTS
pair
Wealthion · video
Front-end yields fall as an over-eager Fed front-loads cuts, while the long end must reprice higher to account for an inflation-accommodative Fed and rising term premium, steepening the curve
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
Fed Super-Sized Rate Cut! Vincent Deluard Analyzes the 50 bps Cut
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