Investors / stance tracking
What Vincent Deluard is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowGlobal Macro Strategist, StoneX
22 dated public stances tracked since 2024-09-19, most recently 2026-10-23. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Vincent Deluard's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Vincent Deluard is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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22
tracked stances
10
themes
1
side flips
2026-10-23
last heard
Returns 90d +2.7% 67% correct · 9 calls · 180d +3.8% 44% correct · 9 calls · 1y +9.9% 56% correct · 9 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-04 | SPX | bullish | +8.6% | +10.8% | +23.6% |
| 2025-08-04 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -3.0% | -0.5% | +1.6% |
| 2025-03-12 | long SPX / short SPX | pair | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-12 | USD | bearish | +3.2% | +3.5% | -1.1% |
| 2025-03-12 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +3.4% | -2.1% | -1.1% |
| 2024-09-19 | long USTS / short USTS | pair | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 2024-09-19 | SPX | bullish | +3.0% | -1.1% | +18.0% |
| 2024-09-19 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +8.9% | +6.7% | +6.4% |
| 2024-09-19 | GOLD | bullish | +0.0% | +17.1% | +41.8% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Dur Treasuries | 3 | 3 bearish | 2025-08-04 | |
| SPX | 3 | 2 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-23 | |
| EUR (EURO) | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-10-23 | |
| FED FUNDS RATE OPTIONS (HIGHER RATES IN 6 MONTHS) | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-09-19 | |
| GOLD | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-09-19 | |
| JPY (JAPANESE YEN) | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-10-23 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-23
long KRW / short EUR (EURO)
pair
The Meb Faber Show · video
South Korea's 25% of GDP current account surplus driven by semiconductor exports (Samsung earning ~$1B/day) creates a multi-year flood of inbound capital that must eventually push up the won, while Europe's sovereign debt crisis and structural euro weakness…
“there's a simple currency trade you go long the won against the euro”
Vincent Deluard: Why the Stock Market Is More Fragile Than You Think
2026-10-23
long SOUTH KOREA INTEREST RATES / short ECB
pair
The Meb Faber Show · video
Korea's surging trade surplus is feeding domestic inflation and investment, compelling the Bank of Korea to raise rates, while the ECB is paralyzed by the French sovereign debt crisis and effectively must skip rate hikes indefinitely — the rate differential…
“You receive rates in Korea… conversely in Europe you pay rates.”
Vincent Deluard: Why the Stock Market Is More Fragile Than You Think
2026-10-23
long UK EQUITIES / short EUROZONE EQUITIES
pair
The Meb Faber Show · video
The UK has already cleared its sovereign/political crisis while the Eurozone is just entering its French-led debt cycle, making UK equities the natural capital destination as money flees the continent — capital has to go somewhere and the UK wisely stayed…
“short Eurozone equities and you'd be long UK against it”
Vincent Deluard: Why the Stock Market Is More Fragile Than You Think
More than 70% of US stocks are below their 200-day MA while the index is driven by ~7 names, consumer credit spreads are widening, personal income tax collection growth has decelerated from 8-9% to ~5%, savings rates are at generational lows, and the only…
“Eventually the sole justification for the bull market is the bull market itself. It's a very circular argument.”
Vincent Deluard: Why the Stock Market Is More Fragile Than You Think
2026-10-23
JPY (JAPANESE YEN)
bullish
The Meb Faber Show · video
Japan is exiting its debt trap with G (7% annual tax collection growth) well above R, capital is repatriating from foreign markets back to Japan, and yen is a classic defensive asset that rallies during equity stress — making it both a positive absolute view…
“I think being long yen is a nice hedge because I'm worried on the stock market.”
Vincent Deluard: Why the Stock Market Is More Fragile Than You Think
2026-10-23
EUR (EURO)
bearish
The Meb Faber Show · video
Europe is at the same inflection Japan was in 2011-12 but messier: structural negative productivity shock (higher energy costs, collapsing industrial exports to China), aging demographics, no fiscal room, no immigration solution, and the only exit is a…
“It will happen in a nasty way through a sequence of crisis… that's what's going to take down the euro.”
Vincent Deluard: Why the Stock Market Is More Fragile Than You Think
2026-09-18
short EUR/JPY / long USD / long BRL/EUR
other
Forward Guidance · video
Europe will follow Japan's 2012-era currency debasement path due to structural demographic decline, adverse terms-of-trade shock from China, and fiscal dominance; short EUR vs JPY is the core pair, with USD and BRL longs against EUR added to generate positive…
“adding a little bit of long US dollar short euro and long Brazilian real short euro so you can actually fit that carry into a position that you can hold for a long time”
The Fed Is Hiking Into A Growth Slowdown | Weekly Roundup
2026-09-18
long GOLD / short UNKNOWN
pair
Forward Guidance · video
European currency debasement will drive gold in EUR terms just as Japanese debasement drove gold in JPY terms from 2012 onward, making long gold / short EUR the cleanest single expression of the European debasement thesis
“look at gold priced in yen since 2012”
The Fed Is Hiking Into A Growth Slowdown | Weekly Roundup
2026-09-18
long UNKNOWN / short UNKNOWN
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Canada's natural resource base and Carney's bipartisan reform agenda make CAD a complementary long to add to an existing short EUR position, augmenting carry and diversifying the European debasement trade into a resource-advantaged currency
“I should add a long CAD to my short EUR trade — the natural resource position at a minimum makes it interesting”
The Fed Is Hiking Into A Growth Slowdown | Weekly Roundup
2026-09-18
UK EQUITIES
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
UK equities are contrarian-cheap with domestic pension allocations collapsed from 50% to 5%, index concentrated in energy, healthcare, and financials, and the Bank of England gives policy flexibility unavailable to eurozone peers, making UK the best liquid…
“I could see the UK as not great but better and that's what you want — something that's correlated with it just better for a good pair trade”
The Fed Is Hiking Into A Growth Slowdown | Weekly Roundup
Fiscal dominance suppresses real interest rates, boosts corporate profits via government deficit spending, and keeps equity multiples elevated — replicating the late 1940s/early 1950s playbook where stocks outperformed despite rising inflation
“fiscal dominance is very good for stocks... you compress the cost and then the government deficit is no longer constrained”
90d +8.6% · 180d +10.8% · 1y +23.6%
Investing in a World of Permanent Stimulus | Vincent Deluard
2025-08-04
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Hidden Forces · video
Fiscal dominance keeps real rates negative and eventually forces yield curve control, making long-duration sovereign bonds the primary casualty of the regime shift
“what becomes the victim of this is treasuries and especially long-term treasuries as we have seen for the past 5 years”
90d -3.0% · 180d -0.5% · 1y +1.6%
Investing in a World of Permanent Stimulus | Vincent Deluard
2025-03-12
long SPX / short SPX
pair
Forward Guidance · video
US fiscal tightening and overvaluation contrast with European/Japanese fiscal expansion (Germany's 500B+ defense pivot, EU defense spending unlocked), creating a self-reinforcing capital repatriation cycle — European/Japanese savings that recycled into US…
“long not just EUR but really rest of the world — more rest of the world”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
The Bottom Is In For Yields, NOT Equities | Vincent Deluard
2025-03-12
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Temporary artificial demand sources — TGA drawdown, primary dealer balance sheet bloat (~$450B vs $200B avg), and reverse repo depletion — will normalize, while structural deficit and declining foreign capital recycling push 10-year yields back toward 4.5-5%+
“the bottom in yields is in and the bottom in stock is not”
90d +3.4% · 180d -2.1% · 1y -1.1%
The Bottom Is In For Yields, NOT Equities | Vincent Deluard
Deglobalization and capital repatriation mean European and Japanese savings that previously flowed into USD-denominated assets (treasuries, then Mag-7 equities) are redirected domestically, structurally reducing dollar demand while US fiscal stance is…
“long long EUR long not just EUR but really rest of the world”
90d +3.2% · 180d +3.5% · 1y -1.1%
The Bottom Is In For Yields, NOT Equities | Vincent Deluard
2024-09-21
SMALL-CAP EQUITIES
bullish
Wealthion · video
Rate cuts disproportionately benefit small caps because they carry more short-duration floating-rate debt that can be refinanced cheaply, unlike large caps such as Apple which hold net cash and have long-dated fixed debt unaffected by near-term cuts
“lower rates probably help more small caps because most small caps have more debt”
Weekly Recap: Fed Cuts! China Slowdown, U.S. Fiscal Bomb & Crypto Eureka
2024-09-19
long USTS / short USTS
pair
Wealthion · video
Front-end yields fall as an over-eager Fed front-loads cuts, while the long end must reprice higher to account for an inflation-accommodative Fed and rising term premium, steepening the curve
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
Fed Super-Sized Rate Cut! Vincent Deluard Analyzes the 50 bps Cut
Fed cutting 50bps while real GDP grows at 3% and inflation sits above target creates an unusually permissive 'Fed put' with a strike price far above historical norms, making the environment unambiguously bullish for real claims on the economy
“of course buy everything guys, it's the fed put but with a strike price that's like way above anything that made sense before”
90d +3.0% · 180d -1.1% · 1y +18.0%
Fed Super-Sized Rate Cut! Vincent Deluard Analyzes the 50 bps Cut
Said again: 2024-09-21 (Wealthion)
2024-09-19
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
Bonds have already rallied ~15% as yields dropped 150bps, yet the economy is growing above potential, services inflation is structurally reset to 4–5%, and an aggressive Fed risks reigniting inflation and raising the term premium
“I would be Max bearish on on on duration at this point”
90d +8.9% · 180d +6.7% · 1y +6.4%
Fed Super-Sized Rate Cut! Vincent Deluard Analyzes the 50 bps Cut
Said again: 2024-09-21 (Wealthion)
Fed cutting aggressively while inflation remains structurally above target, combined with plausible fiscal dominance (Fed accommodating Treasury financing needs), makes gold the natural hedge for holders who may not own enough
“you don't own enough gold”
90d +0.0% · 180d +17.1% · 1y +41.8%
Fed Super-Sized Rate Cut! Vincent Deluard Analyzes the 50 bps Cut
Said again: 2024-09-21 (Wealthion)
2024-09-19
SMALL CAP EQUITIES
bullish
Wealthion · video
Rate cuts benefit small caps more than large cap tech because small caps carry more short-term floating-rate debt that can be refinanced at lower rates, while mega-caps like Apple hold vast cash and long-dated fixed debt unaffected by Fed moves
“lower rates probably help more small caps because most small caps have more debt”
Fed Super-Sized Rate Cut! Vincent Deluard Analyzes the 50 bps Cut
2024-09-19
FED FUNDS RATE OPTIONS (HIGHER RATES IN 6 MONTHS)
bullish
Wealthion · video
Market is pricing additional large cuts, but a structurally higher inflation environment raises the risk of a 'pivot from the pivot,' making options on a higher fed funds rate in six months very cheap and asymmetric
“options on on a higher fed funds rate in in six month, that's probably really really cheap right now”
Fed Super-Sized Rate Cut! Vincent Deluard Analyzes the 50 bps Cut
Idea Scout Weekly
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