Investors / stance tracking
What Warren Pies is saying
Co-founder, 3Fourteen Research
11 dated public stances tracked since 2024-09-12, most recently 2025-04-18. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Warren Pies's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Warren Pies is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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11
tracked stances
6
themes
2
side flips
2025-04-18
last heard
Returns 90d +8.6% (n=13) · 180d +10.8% (n=13) · 1y +28.1% (n=13)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2024-10-18 → bullish2025-01-15
Long Dur Treasuries — bullish2024-09-12 → bearish2024-10-18
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Dur Treasuries | 4 | 3 bullish / 1 bearish | 2025-04-18 | |
| GOLD | 3 | 3 bullish | 2025-01-15 | |
| PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-10-18 | |
| SMALL CAP EQUITIES (RUSSELL 2000) | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-01-15 | |
| SPX | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-10-18 | |
| US FINANCIALS SECTOR | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-10-18 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2025-04-18
Long Dur Treasuries
owns
The Compound · video
The economy cannot sustain a 4.5% Fed funds rate, the negative feedback loop from tariffs and a wealth shock will force the White House to back down, and the Fed will cut four or more times this year, driving yields materially lower
“I do think we're overweight bonds. I think yields are coming down. I think the 10-year's coming down.”
90d +0.1% · 180d +7.8% · 1y +5.8%
End of an Empire | TCAF 188
2025-01-15
Long Dur Treasuries
owns
Forward Guidance · video
The neutral rate is lower than the SOFR curve implies, a housing-led growth scare in H1 2025 will force 3–4 Fed cuts and drive the 10-year toward a 4% average, making bonds cheap at current yields
“we went back overweight we did that on December 19th at 46 on the 10-year”
90d +2.3% · 180d +0.8% · 1y +6.3%
What A Growth Scare Means For The Fed & Markets | Warren Pies
2025-01-15
GOLD
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Gold is rallying despite dollar strength and rising real yields—a hallmark of secular bull markets—and should reach $3,000/oz in 2025
“I expect gold to hit $3,000 an ounce this year”
90d +19.6% · 180d +23.8% · 1y +70.1%
What A Growth Scare Means For The Fed & Markets | Warren Pies
2025-01-15
SMALL CAP EQUITIES (RUSSELL 2000)
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Small caps carry floating-rate debt, bet heavily on a fast rate decline that hasn't materialized, and are acutely exposed to the growth scare and higher-for-longer mortgage/borrowing costs
“I'm definitely out on small caps”
What A Growth Scare Means For The Fed & Markets | Warren Pies
2024-10-18
SPX
bullish
The Compound · video
A momentum thrust (19% 63-day return coming out of a bear market with negative sentiment) has historically been 100% predictive of continued rally; earnings are expected to grow ~30% through end of 2026 while strategists remain historically underweight…
“we think the market's going to hit 7,000 by the end of 2026”
90d +1.5% · 180d -9.5% · 1y +16.2%
Strength Leads to Strength | TCAF 162
2024-10-18
GOLD
bullish
The Compound · video
7% fiscal deficits at peak employment with no end in sight drive dollar debasement, and gold has broken out of a 13-year consolidation marking the start of a secular bull market targeting $3,000/oz
“this is like a runaway freight train it's going to go to 3,000”
90d -0.3% · 180d +22.4% · 1y +60.4%
Strength Leads to Strength | TCAF 162
2024-10-18
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
The Compound · video
The 10-year has already priced in all expected Fed cuts; at a neutral Fed funds rate of ~3% the fair value for the 10-year is ~4.25%, leaving little room for further decline, and a Trump victory adds upside rate risk via bond market selloff
“the 10-year has already discounted all of the Fed cuts, all of them in my opinion”
90d +6.3% · 180d +3.9% · 1y -1.8%
Strength Leads to Strength | TCAF 162
2024-10-18
US FINANCIALS SECTOR
bullish
The Compound · video
Yield curve steepening boosts bank net interest margins while Trump deregulation could unlock new business lines; median financial stock sits just 2% from all-time highs with room to run
“median stock in the S&P 500 financials is -2% off its all-time high”
Strength Leads to Strength | TCAF 162
2024-10-18
PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS
owns
The Compound · video
Private equity names benefit from a steeper yield curve and anticipated Trump deregulation that could open the private credit market to large banks, accelerating deal activity
“the private equity names and I own two of them are just run away”
Strength Leads to Strength | TCAF 162
2024-09-14
GOLD
bullish
Wealthion · video
Gold is in a secular bull market driven by structural fiscal deficits at a stage of the business cycle never seen before, institutional debasement, Fed rate cuts weakening the dollar, and a secular decline in trust in institutions
“gold is kind of the reciprocal of trust in institutions and Trust in institutions is in a secular bare market”
90d +2.4% · 180d +15.3% · 1y +42.0%
Weekly Recap: Inflation Comeback? Fed Rate Cut, Crypto's Future & FIRE
2024-09-12
Long Dur Treasuries
owns
Wealthion · video
Inflation fears have shifted to growth fears, restoring the traditional negative stock-bond correlation so bonds now provide portfolio protection on equity sell-offs, with yields likely to bottom near or just after the first Fed cut
“we moved them to an overweight on July 5th and that's where we are right now”
90d -7.0% · 180d -7.8% · 1y -6.2%
Will Fed Rate Cuts Avert Recession? | Warren Pies & Jared Dillian on What’s Next!
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