Investors / stance tracking
What Warren Pies is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCo-founder, 3Fourteen Research
15 dated public stances tracked since 2024-09-12, most recently 2026-10-30. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Warren Pies's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Warren Pies is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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15
tracked stances
9
themes
3
side flips
2026-10-30
last heard
Returns 90d +5.8% 88% correct · 8 calls · 180d +5.6% 75% correct · 8 calls · 1y +18.5% 75% correct · 8 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-18 | Long Dur Treasuries | owns | +0.1% | +7.8% | +5.8% |
| 2025-01-15 | OIL | bearish | +21.2% | +10.3% | +15.7% |
| 2025-01-15 | Long Dur Treasuries | owns | +2.3% | +0.8% | +6.3% |
| 2025-01-15 | GOLD | bullish | +19.6% | +23.8% | +70.1% |
| 2024-10-18 | SPX | bullish | +1.5% | -9.5% | +16.2% |
| 2024-10-18 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +6.3% | +3.9% | -1.8% |
| 2024-09-14 | GOLD | bullish | +2.4% | +15.3% | +42.0% |
| 2024-09-12 | Long Dur Treasuries | owns | -7.0% | -7.8% | -6.2% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2024-10-18 → bullish2025-01-15
Long Dur Treasuries — bullish2024-09-12 → bearish2024-10-18
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Dur Treasuries | 4 | 3 bullish / 1 bearish | 2025-04-18 | |
| SPX | 3 | 2 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-30 | |
| GOLD | 2 | 2 bullish | 2025-01-15 | |
| AI TRADE | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-10-30 | |
| Ai Infra | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-10-23 | |
| OIL | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-01-15 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
The equal-weight S&P 500 rally is a rates trade in disguise rather than genuine fundamental broadening, making it vulnerable when rate pressure reasserts
“I am actually worried about the equal weight S&P 500 here because this is just a rates trade in disguise”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-30 16:18 ET (5 min)
Said again: 2026-10-30 (CNBC (uncut))
2026-10-30
AI TRADE
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Anthropic S1 shows revenue per dollar of compute quadrupled in one year and real-time GPU utilization metrics show no fundamental break in AI demand, so the sell-off is technical not structural
“revenue dollar per dollar spent on compute gone from 57 cents one year ago, over two dollars”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-30 16:18 ET (5 min)
2026-10-23
Ai Infra
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
GPU rental rates continue to push higher and availability is at new lows per 3Fourteen's index, while AI lab ARR is tracking toward 170–190B by year-end from a 30B start, meaning the AI demand story remains structurally intact even as hardware stocks have…
“GPU rental rates continuing to push higher. Availability, GPU availability is at new lows in our 314 index.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-23 15:59 ET (5 min)
Strong earnings growth has compressed the S&P P/E by ~20% while the market has chopped sideways, providing a historically rare valuation cushion that should support a push through 8,000 before year-end as rates stabilize and breadth broadens
“I think we're still on track for probably breaking through 8,000 on the S&P before the year's over”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-16 11:31 ET (30 min)
2025-04-18
Long Dur Treasuries
owns
The Compound · video
The economy cannot sustain a 4.5% Fed funds rate, the negative feedback loop from tariffs and a wealth shock will force the White House to back down, and the Fed will cut four or more times this year, driving yields materially lower
“I do think we're overweight bonds. I think yields are coming down. I think the 10-year's coming down.”
90d +0.1% · 180d +7.8% · 1y +5.8%
End of an Empire | TCAF 188
2025-01-15
Long Dur Treasuries
owns
Forward Guidance · video
The neutral rate is lower than the SOFR curve implies, a housing-led growth scare in H1 2025 will force 3–4 Fed cuts and drive the 10-year toward a 4% average, making bonds cheap at current yields
“we went back overweight we did that on December 19th at 46 on the 10-year”
90d +2.3% · 180d +0.8% · 1y +6.3%
What A Growth Scare Means For The Fed & Markets | Warren Pies
Gold is rallying despite dollar strength and rising real yields—a hallmark of secular bull markets—and should reach $3,000/oz in 2025
“I expect gold to hit $3,000 an ounce this year”
90d +19.6% · 180d +23.8% · 1y +70.1%
What A Growth Scare Means For The Fed & Markets | Warren Pies
2025-01-15
SMALL CAP EQUITIES (RUSSELL 2000)
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Small caps carry floating-rate debt, bet heavily on a fast rate decline that hasn't materialized, and are acutely exposed to the growth scare and higher-for-longer mortgage/borrowing costs
“I'm definitely out on small caps”
What A Growth Scare Means For The Fed & Markets | Warren Pies
Oil is range-bound to down: crack spreads have not confirmed the sanctions-driven price spike, demand is fundamentally weak given a strong dollar and global slowdown risk, and a Russia-Ukraine resolution could flood supply
“this is a down range bound to down year for oil”
90d +21.2% · 180d +10.3% · 1y +15.7%
What A Growth Scare Means For The Fed & Markets | Warren Pies
A momentum thrust (19% 63-day return coming out of a bear market with negative sentiment) has historically been 100% predictive of continued rally; earnings are expected to grow ~30% through end of 2026 while strategists remain historically underweight…
“we think the market's going to hit 7,000 by the end of 2026”
90d +1.5% · 180d -9.5% · 1y +16.2%
Strength Leads to Strength | TCAF 162
2024-10-18
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
The Compound · video
The 10-year has already priced in all expected Fed cuts; at a neutral Fed funds rate of ~3% the fair value for the 10-year is ~4.25%, leaving little room for further decline, and a Trump victory adds upside rate risk via bond market selloff
“the 10-year has already discounted all of the Fed cuts, all of them in my opinion”
90d +6.3% · 180d +3.9% · 1y -1.8%
Strength Leads to Strength | TCAF 162
2024-10-18
US FINANCIALS SECTOR
bullish
The Compound · video
Yield curve steepening boosts bank net interest margins while Trump deregulation could unlock new business lines; median financial stock sits just 2% from all-time highs with room to run
“median stock in the S&P 500 financials is -2% off its all-time high”
Strength Leads to Strength | TCAF 162
2024-10-18
PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS
owns
The Compound · video
Private equity names benefit from a steeper yield curve and anticipated Trump deregulation that could open the private credit market to large banks, accelerating deal activity
“the private equity names and I own two of them are just run away”
Strength Leads to Strength | TCAF 162
Gold is in a secular bull market driven by structural fiscal deficits at a stage of the business cycle never seen before, institutional debasement, Fed rate cuts weakening the dollar, and a secular decline in trust in institutions
“gold is kind of the reciprocal of trust in institutions and Trust in institutions is in a secular bare market”
90d +2.4% · 180d +15.3% · 1y +42.0%
Weekly Recap: Inflation Comeback? Fed Rate Cut, Crypto's Future & FIRE
Said again: 2024-10-18 (The Compound)
2024-09-12
Long Dur Treasuries
owns
Wealthion · video
Inflation fears have shifted to growth fears, restoring the traditional negative stock-bond correlation so bonds now provide portfolio protection on equity sell-offs, with yields likely to bottom near or just after the first Fed cut
“we moved them to an overweight on July 5th and that's where we are right now”
90d -7.0% · 180d -7.8% · 1y -6.2%
Will Fed Rate Cuts Avert Recession? | Warren Pies & Jared Dillian on What’s Next!
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