Founder, The Macro Compass
5 dated public stances tracked since 2025-08-27, most recently 2025-08-27. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Alfonso Peccatiello's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Alfonso Peccatiello is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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Returns 90d -0.6% 40% correct · 5 calls · 180d +5.5% 60% correct · 5 calls · 1y +8.3% 60% correct · 5 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|
| 2025-08-27 | USTS | bearish | -2.6% | -3.4% | -0.9% |
| 2025-08-27 | GOLD | bullish | +21.5% | +53.9% | +35.1% |
| 2025-08-27 | European Equities | bullish | +2.3% | +15.1% | +20.9% |
| 2025-08-27 | BITCOIN | bullish | -21.5% | -41.9% | -27.9% |
| 2025-08-27 | BANKS | bullish | -2.6% | +3.6% | +14.3% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|
| BANKS | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2025-08-27 |
| BITCOIN | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2025-08-27 |
| European Equities | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2025-08-27 |
| GOLD | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2025-08-27 |
| USTS | 1 | | 1 bearish | 2025-08-27 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2025-08-27
European Equities
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Eastern European equity markets have delivered ~40% annualized returns over five years (matching or beating US AI stocks) yet remain almost entirely absent from institutional portfolios, and are now getting a fiscal tailwind as Europe breaks its austerity…
“Poland, Czech Republic — these markets are flying and I think there is something to be said there for a bullish story that is largely underowned.”
90d +2.3% · 180d +15.1% · 1y +20.9%
Trump’s Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before 2026 Surge | Alfonso Peccatiello
2025-08-27
GOLD
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Metals are policymaker protest assets that trend when the Fed is politically accommodative and nominal growth runs above neutral, and Trump has no incentive to constrain metal prices unlike oil
“Does he have anything against an increase in silver or gold or copper? Probably not. So you want to own a diversified basket of commodities.”
90d +21.5% · 180d +53.9% · 1y +35.1%
Trump’s Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before 2026 Surge | Alfonso Peccatiello
2025-08-27
USTS
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Political capture of the FOMC pushes Fed funds toward neutral while nominal growth stays above neutral due to fiscal stimulus and AI capex, forcing an inflation and term-risk premium into the long end that paper assets cannot absorb
“You cannot own bonds that easily in that situation, especially the 10-year plus part of the curve.”
90d -2.6% · 180d -3.4% · 1y -0.9%
Trump’s Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before 2026 Surge | Alfonso Peccatiello
2025-08-27
BANKS
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
European banks are undergoing Japan-style shareholder-friendly consolidation, returning capital, and are massively underowned after a decade of poor earnings — now benefiting from rising nominal yields and a fiscal regime shift in Europe
“What is the ticker for European banks? It's going up. What is this thing? It really tells you something about the sentiment.”
90d -2.6% · 180d +3.6% · 1y +14.3%
Trump’s Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before 2026 Surge | Alfonso Peccatiello
2025-08-27
BITCOIN
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Crypto acts as a high-beta policymaker protest asset with a right-skewed return distribution; realized vol on Bitcoin is unusually low relative to its right-tail potential in a run-hot nominal growth environment with a politically doveish Fed
“The realized vol of Bitcoin is really low and in an environment where Bitcoin can deliver strong right-tail returns...it's also interesting for institutional investors.”
90d -21.5% · 180d -41.9% · 1y -27.9%
Trump’s Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before 2026 Surge | Alfonso Peccatiello
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