Stocks / ETF
IEFETF
FollowFollowingUnfollowiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
$91.481d -0.3%5d +0.4%settled close · 2026-11-02
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Mkt cap $47B (11/2)β 0.1652w $89–96Shares 509.2MNasdaq since 2002
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Who’s talking about IEF
254 long45 neutral217 shortlatest 2026-10-27
| Date | Voice | Stance | Venue | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Karen Finerman (Metropolitan)CEO, Metropolitan Capital Advisors | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | CoreWeave's 2032 senior unsecured bonds have stopped falling and are recovering from peak stress levels, with… |
| 2026-10-27 | Aditya Bhave | Bearish | CNBC (uncut) | Persistently problematic September inflation data — both headline and details — combined with new Fed Chair… |
| 2026-10-27 | Charlie Bobrinskoy | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | A roughly 3% expected real yield near a 5.3% nominal yield offers attractive long-term returns after years… |
| 2026-10-27 | Steve LiesmanCNBC senior economics reporter | Neutral | CNBC (uncut) | Heavy capital demand and multiple sources of term premium should keep the 10-year Treasury yield within an… |
| 2026-10-26 | Russ Kostrich | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | For the first time in roughly 18 years investors can build a diversified portfolio at 7% yield without taking… |
| 2026-10-26 | Max KettnerChief multi-asset strategist, HSBC | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Both midterm outcomes are bond-bullish — a blue wave triggers AI-regulation narrative driving a bond rally… |
| 2026-10-26 | Subadra RajappaHead of US rates strategy & head of research Americas, SocGen | Bearish | CNBC (uncut) | Inflation remains a problem and the Fed is expected to hike in December and again in March, pushing yields… |
| 2026-10-26 | Subadra RajappaHead of US rates strategy & head of research Americas, SocGen | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | 5% yield on the 10-year is attractive as a safe-haven asset with real value at a time when AI uncertainty and… |
| 2026-10-26 | Rich Clarida | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | A generational reset in bond yields has lifted starting yields high enough that a high-quality fixed income… |
| 2026-10-24 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Neutral | Julia La Roche Show (feed) | Without renewed Fed balance-sheet expansion, 10-year yields will remain near current levels rather than… |
Show all 516 mentions
| Date | Voice | Stance | Venue | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Matt Miskin | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Treasuries are resuming their diversifier role as higher cost of capital collides with capital-hungry AI… |
| 2026-10-23 | Jean Boivin | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Current rate levels make short-duration income across the fixed income universe broadly attractive with… |
| 2026-10-23 | Anastasia AmorosoChief Investment Strategist, iCapital | Bullish | Fox Business (uncut) | Yields at 5.25% are attractive enough to draw meaningful investor demand, and end-user demand data shows that… |
| 2026-10-23 | Jerome Schneider | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | Real yields above 2% combined with a restored negative correlation to equities (bonds rallied as AI stocks… |
| 2026-10-23 | Steve EismanHost, The Real Eisman Playbook; former PM, Neuberger Berman | Neutral | Steve Eisman (newest) | France's debt-to-GDP at 120% is unsustainable and unlike US Treasuries, no global investor is required to… |
| 2026-10-23 | Chamath PalihapitiyaFounder, Social Capital | Bearish | All-In Podcast | France's public spending as a percent of GDP exceeds every major historical communist nation, and with… |
| 2026-10-22 | Sphia SalimHead of European Rates Strategy, Bank of America | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | US Treasuries, German Bunds and high-quality Finnish, Austrian and Dutch sovereign bonds should continue… |
| 2026-10-22 | Torsten SlokChief Economist, Apollo Global | Bearish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Strong labor data, broadening inflation and Taylor-rule estimates favor higher policy rates, making delayed… |
| 2026-10-22 | Gabriela SantosChief market strategist for the Americas, J.P. Morgan Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Yields have risen enough to offer attractive income while softer economic growth and excessive Fed tightening… |
| 2026-10-22 | John Lonski | Neutral | Fox Business (uncut) | A roughly 5% yield offers attractive income with substantially less risk than CoreWeave or other technology… |
| 2026-10-22 | Dana D Auria | Neutral | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Investors with equity-heavy portfolios should make a lasting rotation into fixed income to restore… |
| 2026-10-22 | David Kudla | Neutral | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Japan's rising rates and unsustainable sovereign-debt dynamics should continue pressuring Japanese government… |
| 2026-10-22 | Mike SantoliSenior markets commentator, CNBC | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | A roughly 5% yield provides investors with income cushion and should attract substantial buying demand… |
| 2026-10-22 | Gita | Bullish | Fox Business (uncut) | Bonds have become attractive at yields near 6% after decades of offering too little value. |
| 2026-10-22 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Bullish | Fox Business (uncut) | High real rates now offer roughly 7% yields with only three-year duration, while refinancing and default… |
| 2026-10-22 | Rick | Bullish | Fox Business (uncut) | High-quality bonds can deliver roughly their 7% starting yield over a one-to-three-year holding period… |
| 2026-10-22 | Ben CarlsonDirector of institutional AM, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson) | Bond yields near 5.5% are the highest since 2007, so expected returns are now attractive and today's yields… |
| 2026-10-22 | Will Magoff | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | Elevated rates have created the best income environment in a generation, making yield-bearing instruments an… |
| 2026-10-22 | Keith LernerCIO & chief market strategist, Truist Advisory Services | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | US fiscal position is poor in absolute terms but superior on a relative basis to Europe, and the strong… |
| 2026-10-22 | Rob Waldner | Bullish | Gene Munster (newest) | Yields near 5% are hitting a credible ceiling because crossing that level triggers visible credit stress —… |
| 2026-10-22 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | William Green | Richer, Wiser, Happier | High yield bonds currently yield ~7% with contractually fixed returns, offering equity-like returns at lower… |
| 2026-10-22 | Sphia SalimHead of European Rates Strategy, Bank of America | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Flight-to-quality flows are enriching fiscally sound smaller eurozone sovereigns as investors exit French… |
| 2026-10-22 | Torsten SlokChief Economist, Apollo Global | Neutral | Bloomberg Surveillance | Credit spreads on data center bonds are widening as markets question whether AI revenue economics can justify… |
| 2026-10-22 | Torsten SlokChief Economist, Apollo Global | Bearish | Torsten Slok (newest) | Credit markets are repricing AI infrastructure risk as the S&P 493 productivity payoff remains unproven and… |
| 2026-10-22 | Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices)Co-host, MacroVoices & Market Huddle | Bearish | Macro Voices (feed) | Junk bonds have transitioned from simply tracking rate moves to now demanding a structurally wider credit… |
| 2026-10-22 | Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices)Co-host, MacroVoices & Market Huddle | Bearish | Macro Voices (feed) | Credit spreads are breaking out beyond their initial rate-driven selloff, indicating fundamental stress and… |
| 2026-10-21 | Kathy EntwistleManaging Director and Private Wealth Advisor, Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Rates are at or near a peak and will eventually decline, making current yields attractive to lock in now… |
| 2026-10-21 | Charles DallaraAdvisory Partner and Chairman, Partners Group USA | Bearish | CNBC (uncut) | Persistent US inflation, further expected Fed tightening, and unsustainable fiscal trajectories across major… |
| 2026-10-21 | Jan Van EckCEO, VanEck | Bullish | Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) | Short-duration Treasuries at ~5% offer attractive risk-adjusted yield with minimal duration risk, buyers have… |
| 2026-10-20 | Angelo KoukavasSenior Global Investment Strategist, Edward Jones | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Bonds are beginning to shift from pricing inflation to pricing the second-derivative growth slowdown from Fed… |
| 2026-10-20 | Rae Ann MitrioneMarket Strategist and Founding Partner, Callan Family Office | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | With the 10-year at 5.11% and 30-year at 5.42%, yields are sufficiently attractive to rotate capital out of… |
| 2026-10-20 | North Star Asset Management CioCIO, North Star Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | 10-year yield above 5% provides the best starting yield in over a decade, and historical data shows starting… |
| 2026-10-20 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Julia La Roche Show (feed) | Recession odds above 50% for 2027 should drive a sharp 10-year yield decline; bonds are deeply underowned at… |
| 2026-10-20 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bullish | Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) | Rates in the 5–6% range now match the appropriate level for a nominal GDP economy running at 3% inflation… |
| 2026-10-20 | Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago Capital | Neutral | interview | Short-term US paper yields 4-5% with no duration risk in an environment where rates are likely to stay high… |
| 2026-10-19 | Max KettnerChief multi-asset strategist, HSBC | Bearish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | French political instability, a 5% deficit, widening spreads beyond Italy, and lack of EU fiscal cohesion… |
| 2026-10-19 | Sabatra Japar | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | 10-year yields at 5%+ offer compelling entry value for longs as AI equity concerns trigger safe-haven flows… |
| 2026-10-19 | Peter CheeverHead of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities | Bearish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Compute firms tapped the market aggressively over summer, leaving thin liquidity; any sustained selling could… |
| 2026-10-19 | Joe Yang | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | AI bonds offer lower volatility than AI equities while still capturing growth through CapEx financing… |
| 2026-10-19 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Bitcoin Magazine | Historical evidence since the 1971 gold-standard exit shows bonds return 4.5–6.5% annually in… |
| 2026-10-19 | Keith McculloughCEO & Founder, Hedgeye Risk Management | Neutral | Danielle DiMartino Booth (newest) | Discord among Fed officials over forward guidance sustains structurally elevated Treasury bond volatility… |
| 2026-10-19 | Andy GoldbergChief Investment Strategist, Nomura Asset Management International | Bullish | Fox Business (uncut) | With the 10-year near multi-year highs, interest rates represent an attractive entry point that adds… |
| 2026-10-19 | Max KettnerChief multi-asset strategist, HSBC | Neutral | Bloomberg Surveillance | Political uncertainty in France and insufficient fiscal risk premium mean spreads have not adequately… |
| 2026-10-19 | Andrew SheetsGlobal Head of Fixed Income Research, Morgan Stanley | Neutral | Bloomberg Surveillance | Spreads have widened enough to prompt a move from prior negative view to neutral, though OATs are not… |
| 2026-10-18 | Paisley NardiniHead of investment strategy, Tema ETFs | Bullish | Excess Returns (feed) | With yields near 5.5%, bonds now offer the most attractive income in over 15 years; the case is income… |
| 2026-10-17 | Kevin MuirIndependent trader — The Macro Tourist | Bearish | The Market Huddle | Rising borrowing costs are compounding stress on leveraged borrowers, with credit spreads starting to widen… |
| 2026-10-17 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bullish | Mario Nawfal | Bonds offer a near-term haven because yields have moved above their long-run average while tightening… |
| 2026-10-16 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Short | Forward Guidance | Positioning rinse in bonds became extreme after yields rallied hard on hot CPI/PPI, making a short-term… |
| 2026-10-16 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | Market is pricing roughly 2.5 hikes by mid-2027 and three by September which El-Erian believes is too many… |
| 2026-10-16 | Andres Skiba | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | Capitulation in long treasury positions is largely washed out, roughly three rate hikes are already priced… |
| 2026-10-16 | B N Nguyen | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | The short end of the yield curve offers a safe haven in the current environment of rising rates and tech… |
| 2026-10-16 | Cavan Say | Bearish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Monetary policy is still accommodative not restrictive, core inflation is structurally elevated and not… |
| 2026-10-16 | Andrew BorsaCIO, Global Fixed Income, PIMCO | Bearish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | France's deteriorating fiscal outlook makes it a higher-beta underperformer during fixed income sell-offs… |
| 2026-10-16 | Paisley NardiniHead of investment strategy, Tema ETFs | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | After strong equity gains, rotating into front-end and intermediate curve at ~5% yield offers a stable return… |
| 2026-10-16 | Paisley NardiniHead of investment strategy, Tema ETFs | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | With yields backed up across the curve, locking in ~5% on front-end and intermediate bonds is a prudent and… |
| 2026-10-16 | Steve EismanHost, The Real Eisman Playbook; former PM, Neuberger Berman | Bullish | The Real Eisman Playbook | France's debt/GDP at 120% with no political will to cut spending and Le Pen advocating lowering retirement… |
| 2026-10-16 | Kevin Thompson | Bullish | Yahoo Finance | With inflation remaining elevated and yields above 4%, short-duration T-bills offer an attractive… |
| 2026-10-16 | Eric DhallPortfolio Manager, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | AI bond investors carry asymmetric downside risk without equity's unlimited upside, and CoreWeave bond stress… |
| 2026-10-16 | Rob Sechan (NewEdge Wealth)Co-founder & CEO, NewEdge Wealth | Bearish | CNBC Halftime Committee | Yields have not peaked and could rise another 30 basis points from current levels as multiple macro factors… |
| 2026-10-15 | Greg Fleming | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | AI-driven productivity gains and housing weakness should cap 10-year yields in the 4.5–5.25% range rather… |
| 2026-10-15 | Joe Lavorgna | Bearish | CNBC (uncut) | Inflation is running persistently above the Fed's target with nominal GDP growth at 6%+ and robust consumer… |
| 2026-10-15 | Mark NewtonHead of Technical Strategy, Fundstrat | Bearish | CNBC (uncut) | Treasury yields have not yet peaked for the year and should make one more push higher into November before… |
| 2026-10-15 | John ColovisHead of Technical Strategy, Macro Risk Advisors | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | Yield peaked around 5.15% on bearish sentiment and COT extremes; post-CPI selling climax sets up… |
| 2026-10-15 | Wei LiGlobal Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock Investment Institute | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Budgetary concerns combined with elevated political volatility prevent extending the Treasury upgrade to… |
| 2026-10-15 | Sebastien PageCIO and Head of Global Multi-Asset, T. Rowe Price | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | 10-year yield is increasingly driven by growth and risk-off concerns rather than inflation after the hotter… |
| 2026-10-15 | Anastasia AmorosoChief Investment Strategist, iCapital | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | A 5.25% 10-year yield is compelling for both private and institutional investors, and rate-hike expectations… |
| 2026-10-15 | Jesse FelderAuthor, The Felder Report | Short | Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) | 10-year yields broke out of a multi-year consolidation and the gold-price leading indicator (which forecast… |
| 2026-10-15 | Liz Thomas (SoFi)Head of Investment Strategy, SoFi | Bullish | RiskReversal Media | At 4.94–5.24% entry yield the 10-year provides locked-in income, capital preservation, and a hedge against… |
| 2026-10-15 | Jeffrey ShermanDeputy CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | 30-year bonds from AI buildout operators require the technology to work profitably for decades, while… |
| 2026-10-14 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Rates have finally reached a level consistent with a neutral funds rate of ~4.5%, so bonds are now fairly… |
| 2026-10-14 | Keith | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | Negative macro headlines on bonds (Economist bond-blowup cover, IMF fiscal deficit warnings) are contrarian… |
| 2026-10-14 | Kara MurphyCIO, Kestra Investment Management | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | The yield curve's flatness means investors are not being compensated to take on duration risk, while the rise… |
| 2026-10-14 | Unknown Bond Market Guest | Bearish | CNBC (uncut) | Newly issued AI hyperscaler bonds are trading significantly wider within months of issuance due to… |
| 2026-10-14 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | Financial conditions have tightened 140 bps in three months, inflation is hitting a wall on labor markets… |
| 2026-10-14 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Jim Bianco (newest) | Yields are attractive both nominally and in real terms, and underlying inflation is poised to subside as… |
| 2026-10-14 | Mario InneccoHost, Maneco64 | Bullish | Kitco NEWS | Sub-1-year T-bills (~4.5–5%) let investors capture elevated yields with minimal principal risk because short… |
| 2026-10-13 | Joachim KlementHead of Strategy, Panmure Liberum | Bearish | Klement on Investing | Buying 30-year Treasuries is an implicit large bet on AI delivering significant productivity gains; Klement… |
| 2026-10-13 | Jon GrayPresident & COO, Blackstone | Neutral | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Europe faces more pressing fiscal stress than the US due to structurally lower growth (~1%) combined with… |
| 2026-10-13 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Neutral | Ed Yardeni (newest) | 10-year yields near 5% are 'back to normal' not 'higher for longer,' because pre-GFC rates ran 4-5% and the… |
| 2026-10-13 | Lorenzo ValenteDirector of research, digital assets, ARK Invest | Bullish | ARK Invest | Stablecoin holders on-chain seeking the risk-free rate (~4%) will sustain demand for tokenized treasuries… |
| 2026-10-13 | Raoul PalCo-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PM | Bullish | EVERYDAY FINANCE | Stablecoins wrap Treasury bonds into a dollar-denominated product accessible to 8.5 billion people globally… |
| 2026-10-13 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Neutral | Ed Yardeni (newest) | Current yields (~5%) represent a return to pre-GFC norms, not an aberration — 'normal for longer' not 'higher… |
| 2026-10-12 | Unknown Jp Morgan Asset Management | Bearish | A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson) | Avoiding duration risk has been validated over the past five years and current defensive positioning suggests… |
| 2026-10-12 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Neutral | Chris Davis | At roughly 5.25% yield, 10-year Treasuries are starting to look attractive and yields may be near a cyclical… |
| 2026-10-12 | Russell NapierMarket strategist & financial historian | Bearish | The MOST Important Thing Podcast | 53% of France's government bond market and 70% of its bank debt are held by foreigners (primarily Japan and… |
| 2026-10-12 | Lance RobertsChief Investment Strategist, RIA Advisors | Bearish | Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) | CCC-rated issuers start already on the verge of bankruptcy, and rising interest rates are compounding… |
| 2026-10-12 | Mike NovogratzFounder/CEO, Galaxy Digital | Bearish | Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin | Bond market risks unhinging as US debt accelerates; foreign holders reducing Treasury exposure and if yields… |
| 2026-10-11 | Danielle ParkPresident & Portfolio Manager, Venable Park Investment Counsel | Bullish | Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) | Sweet-spot duration: earns meaningful income at current yields without the principal volatility of… |
| 2026-10-10 | Patrick BoyleFinance professor; ex-hedge fund manager | Bearish | interview | France runs a persistent primary deficit (2.9% of GDP), has had no balanced budget since 1974, faces… |
| 2026-10-10 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Jimmy Connor | EM local-currency bonds complement US Treasury longs by broadening fixed-income diversification across… |
| 2026-10-09 | Jeanne SunHead of portfolio advisory, Citi Wealth (CIO office) | Bearish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Risk in fixed income is historically elevated relative to its opportunity set, while the risk/reward for… |
| 2026-10-09 | Amanda AgatiCIO, PNC Asset Management Group | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Rate volatility has created entry opportunities in bonds that offer better risk-adjusted returns than cash… |
| 2026-10-09 | Barbara ReinhartCIO, multi-asset strategies & solutions, Voya Investment Management | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Real-time leading indicators show the economy softening at the front end, which should slow growth, cool… |
| 2026-10-09 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | 30-year TIPS and 30-year nominal Treasuries are nearly perfectly correlated — buying TIPS as an inflation… |
| 2026-10-09 | Jurrien TimmerDirector of Global Macro, Fidelity Investments | Bullish | The Compound | At ~5.3% nominal / ~2.9% real yield, 10-year Treasuries offer asymmetric risk/reward — a 100bps rally… |
| 2026-10-08 | Neil SutherlandHead of US fixed income, Schroders | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | At 5% yield, 5-year Treasuries sit roughly 100bps above Fed funds, offering an attractive entry point; the… |
| 2026-10-08 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Front end of the curve delivers high income with low volatility at historically elevated real rates, making… |
| 2026-10-08 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bullish | Jim Bianco (newest) | 5%+ yields across the 5-to-30-year curve now reflect fair value given ~3% inflation plus ~2% real growth… |
| 2026-10-07 | Savita SubramanianHead of US Equity Strategy, BofA | Bullish | Savita Subramanian (newest) | At 5%+ yields, the risk-adjusted return on 10-year Treasuries exceeds Bank of America's projected S&P 500… |
| 2026-10-06 | Shuli RenColumnist, Bloomberg Opinion | Bearish | Ray Dalio | Japan, France's largest foreign creditor holding ~5% of French debt, is rotating out of overseas fixed income… |
| 2026-10-05 | Homin LeeSenior macro strategist, Lombard Odier | Neutral | Bloomberg ETF IQ | The global capex boom is broadening and deepening across EM countries and sectors while valuations remain… |
| 2026-10-05 | Ed Al-HussainyPortfolio manager & global rates strategist, Columbia Threadneedle | Bearish | Bloomberg ETF IQ | Closed all EM local positions because the Fed is entering a more aggressive hike sequence, the USD is at its… |
| 2026-10-05 | David KellyChief Global Strategist, JPMorgan Asset Management | Bullish | Fox Claman Countdown | Bond yields at 6-7% on corporate debt are historically attractive and should be locked in now because the Fed… |
| 2026-10-05 | Steve ChiavaroneCIO global equities, Federated Hermes | Short | Bloomberg Surveillance | Inflation risks exceed growth risks in a new economic reality of 8.5% nominal GDP, positive real rates, and… |
| 2026-10-05 | Russell NapierMarket strategist & financial historian | Bearish | W1M Wealth & Investment Management | A 30-year bear market in real government bond returns began in summer 2020, driven by financial repression as… |
| 2026-10-05 | Jack ManleyGlobal market strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Labor market is not overheating — wage growth is at 5-year lows and payroll gains are anemic — so no… |
| 2026-10-05 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | September jobs report was soft relative to August's outlier, one-off inflation components are rolling off… |
| 2026-10-02 | Jim Lebenthal (Cerity)Partner, Cerity Partners | Bullish | CNBC Halftime Committee | The 2-year has overrun itself by pricing four more hikes because if energy prices merely stabilize, inflation… |
| 2026-10-02 | Emmanuel CauHead of European equity strategy, Barclays | Bullish | Bloomberg ETF IQ | Yields have risen to a level where duration is increasingly compelling as an alternative to equities, and the… |
| 2026-10-02 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bullish | LifeWorthLiving | Invest remaining capital in bonds as the safe anchor of a defensive portfolio constructed to weather the… |
| 2026-10-01 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Macro Voices | The market has priced in four more Fed rate hikes that the Fed itself never signaled, and with no evidence of… |
| 2026-10-01 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Macro Voices | The market has priced in four additional Fed hikes that the Fed never signaled; with wage growth not… |
| 2026-09-30 | Nancy ZimmermanCo-founder & managing partner, Bracebridge Capital | Bearish | Capital Allocators | Japan, China, and the Fed's QE program have all structurally retreated from buying long-duration bonds while… |
| 2026-09-30 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | AI-adjacent IG bonds have widened 50-60bps vs. the broader IG market over the past year and AI high yield has… |
| 2026-09-28 | Tom BeckerMD & portfolio manager, Global Tactical Asset Allocation, BlackRock | Short | Bloomberg Surveillance | Bunds have been the last holdout of QE/austerity pricing and term premium is now unwinding due to European… |
| 2026-09-25 | Subadra RajappaHead of US rates strategy & head of research Americas, SocGen | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Term premium has more room to build at the long end as multiple elections globally (US midterms, France… |
| 2026-09-25 | Bob DollCEO & CIO, Crossmark Global Investments | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | At 520 on the 10-year and with CCC spreads beginning to widen as a signal, bonds at these levels are starting… |
| 2026-09-25 | Kara MurphyCIO, Kestra Investment Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | Short-end yields are attractive without requiring duration risk, while the long end is unattractive because… |
| 2026-09-25 | Katerina SimonettiSVP, Senior Portfolio Manager, Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | Record demand for bonds combined with elevated rates lets investors lock in known positive returns — the… |
| 2026-09-24 | Lisa ShalettCIO, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Nominal yields above 5% are very solid value as the vast majority of this year's rate repricing reflects the… |
| 2026-09-24 | Inigo Fraser JenkinsChief investment strategist, AllianceBernstein | Bearish | Hidden Forces | Nominal bonds are not real assets and once the holding period extends beyond a few business cycles the… |
| 2026-09-24 | Ed Al-HussainyPortfolio manager & global rates strategist, Columbia Threadneedle | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Yields are starting to overshoot relative to the roughly 100bps of Fed hikes already priced, with the large… |
| 2026-09-24 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Neutral | Yahoo Finance | Strong aggregate growth, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and a large supply pipeline make it premature to… |
| 2026-09-23 | Gargi ChaudhuriChief investment & portfolio strategist, Americas, BlackRock | Neutral | Bloomberg Surveillance | With yields at multi-decade highs, a diversified multi-sector credit portfolio earning ~6-6.5% provides… |
| 2026-09-23 | Greg PetersCo-CIO, PGIM Fixed Income | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Investors are in a recency-bias post-GFC mindset underpricing persistent inflation, term premium, and the… |
| 2026-09-22 | Vishal KhandujaHead of Broad Markets Fixed Income, Morgan Stanley IM | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | The 10-year yield has not sustainably exceeded 5% in the last 25 years—above that level it creates… |
| 2026-09-22 | Robert SockinChief U.S. economist, PGIM | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Underlying inflation is at minimum 30 basis points above the Fed's 2% target with non-shelter services prices… |
| 2026-09-22 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | New Era Finance Podcast | US nominal GDP running at 7–8% historically aligns with 8% bond yields; current 10-year yields near 5% must… |
| 2026-09-21 | Jonathan WellumCEO & CIO, RockLinc Investment Partners | Bullish | Wealthion | With inflation stubborn and rates still elevated, duration risk destroys capital; 1-2 year bonds collect… |
| 2026-09-21 | Jeffrey ShermanDeputy CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | With the 2s/10s spread only 25–30 bps, intermediate and long duration offer insufficient compensation, making… |
| 2026-09-21 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Bullish | BlackRock | Default levels remain low while the share of securities yielding above 6% is at an all-time high, making… |
| 2026-09-18 | Russell NapierMarket strategist & financial historian | Bearish | The Peter McCormack Show | Governments are engineering financial repression — holding bond yields below inflation to inflate away… |
| 2026-09-18 | Mark SkousenEditor, Forecasts & Strategies; professor, Chapman University | Bearish | Wealthion | Rising interest rates mean bond prices are dropping, making bonds unattractive versus dividend-paying stocks… |
| 2026-09-17 | Dan SuzukiGlobal market strategist, iCapital | Bearish | CNBC Fast Money Final Trade | Persistently elevated oil prices from geopolitical conflict will force Fed hikes, pushing 10-year yields into… |
| 2026-09-17 | Sonal DesaiCIO, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income | Neutral | Bloomberg The Close | 10-year yields in the 4.40-4.90% range represent fair value given neutral Fed funds at ~4-4.25%, but not yet… |
| 2026-09-17 | Neil DuttaHead of Economics, Renaissance Macro Research | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | Market is underpricing the hiking cycle — at minimum October and December hikes are coming, probably more, as… |
| 2026-09-17 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | AI investment-grade spreads have widened 50bps while non-AI IG is near flat, and AI high-yield spreads have… |
| 2026-09-17 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Excess Returns | Markets have priced in nearly two Fed rate hikes by year-end and 4.5% funds rate through 2027, far beyond… |
| 2026-09-16 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Deficits heading toward $50 trillion with potential 10-12% of GDP deficit in the next recession, combined… |
| 2026-09-16 | Henrik ZebergHead Macroeconomist, Swissblock | Bullish | Wealthion | Bonds are mispriced too cheap because the market is extrapolating sticky inflation while the real economy — a… |
| 2026-09-14 | Subadra RajappaHead of US rates strategy & head of research Americas, SocGen | Bearish | CNBC Fast Money Final Trade | A toxic brew of oil-driven inflation, rising inflation expectations, fiscal trajectory on debt/deficits, and… |
| 2026-09-14 | Chris HarveyHead of US equity strategy, CIBC Capital Markets | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Real yields are healthy and a $13B 20-year auction with yields near multi-year highs creates a tactical… |
| 2026-09-14 | Matt HornbachChief global macro strategist, Morgan Stanley | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | A 3% real yield on long-term government bonds is historically exceptional and represents genuine value, even… |
| 2026-09-14 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Kitco NEWS | 5% yield offers 500bps of cushion in a weakening economy with lower inflation than Oct-2023; record net spec… |
| 2026-09-14 | Barron S Roundtable Panelist | Bullish | Barron's Roundtable | Starting yield is the best predictor of bond returns, and at ~5% the 10-year offers a large cushion —… |
| 2026-09-13 | Jim PaulsenIndependent strategist, Paulsen Perspectives | Bullish | Excess Returns | The US economic surprise index has historically led 10-year yields lower with a consistent lag and is now… |
| 2026-09-12 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Structural fiscal deficit, erosion of foreign confidence in US policy under Trump/Bessent, and the Fed's… |
| 2026-09-11 | Cameron DawsonCIO, NewEdge Wealth | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | The 1981–2020 secular bond bull market is dead and yields are now in a clear secular uptrend, with… |
| 2026-09-10 | Omar AguilarCEO & CIO, Schwab Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Intermediate bond yields are at their most attractive entry point in roughly 15 years, offering compelling… |
| 2026-09-10 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | AI sector IG spreads have already widened from 50 to 125bps and HY from 180 to 325bps while the broader… |
| 2026-09-09 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | Chora Media | Fundamental supply/demand imbalance — 6% GDP deficit, hyperscalers borrowing $300-800B, plus less reliable… |
| 2026-09-08 | Jared DillianAuthor, The Daily Dirtnap | Bullish | Excess Returns | Extreme and persistent bearish sentiment on bonds since 2022 creates a contrarian long setup, as universal… |
| 2026-09-07 | Rachana MehtaCo-head of regional fixed income, Maybank Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | RMB corporate bonds hedged to USD yield ~5% with dramatically lower US-rate-driven volatility than equivalent… |
| 2026-09-07 | Rajeev De MelloCIO, Gamma Asset Management | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | US political pressure to cap Treasury yields makes owning US bonds structurally unattractive, favouring… |
| 2026-09-04 | Julia CoronadoFounder, MacroPolicy Perspectives; former Fed economist | Bearish | Bloomberg Open Interest | Solid labor market with unemployment near full employment combined with broadening inflation across sectors… |
| 2026-09-04 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | OECD governments will inflate their way out of ballooning debt, producing persistently negative real returns… |
| 2026-09-03 | Alli MccartneyManaging director & private wealth advisor, UBS Alignment Partners | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | Fed's next rate move is lower not higher (though not expected until 2027), so buying short-duration bonds now… |
| 2026-09-02 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | David Lin | Short-dated paper offers nearly 3% real yield and attractive cash flow with minimal duration risk, serving as… |
| 2026-08-31 | Aswath DamodaranProfessor of finance, NYU Stern | Bullish | Wealth Building Blueprint – Vladyslav Grabarskyy | At 5-5.5% yield, Treasuries provide reliable near-risk-free cash flows and raise the required return hurdle… |
| 2026-08-31 | Marc FaberEditor, Gloom Boom & Doom Report | Bearish | Wealthion | Persistent inflationary pressures — including energy and food — are structural and make lower interest rates… |
| 2026-08-31 | Gregory DacoChief economist, EY-Parthenon | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Today's inflation is supply-side — driven by tariffs, elevated oil prices, and AI investment costs — none of… |
| 2026-08-26 | Ben CarlsonDirector of institutional AM, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson) | The US will not face a sovereign debt crisis because it has the world's largest economy, the reserve… |
| 2026-08-24 | Nick ColasCo-Founder, DataTrek Research | Bearish | The Compound | Four simultaneous forces keep real yields elevated and climbing — Fed QE unwind complete, higher neutral rate… |
| 2026-08-21 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Short | Rob Wallace | Bitcoin News | Nominal GDP growth running 6-8% annualised (fastest since early 1980s) must eventually be priced into the… |
| 2026-08-20 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Wealthion | The front end of the yield curve is still pricing at least one more Fed hike that Rosenberg believes will… |
| 2026-08-19 | Ben CarlsonDirector of institutional AM, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | Sticky inflation anchoring the US in a 3%-world makes the current 3% real TIPS yield historically exceptional… |
| 2026-08-18 | David WooIndependent macro strategist (ex-BofA) | Bullish | Wealthion | Five-year yields are too high given that the Fed is unlikely to hike with growth slowing and inflation… |
| 2026-08-18 | Gabriela SantosChief market strategist for the Americas, J.P. Morgan Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | Long-end yield volatility is being driven by a term premium reset from surging government and corporate debt… |
| 2026-08-17 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Wealthion | At current yields around 4.5%, bonds offer attractive fixed income compensation relative to recent history |
| 2026-08-15 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | High yield spreads are 150-200 bps wider than fundamentals warrant; elevated real rates are the sole drag… |
| 2026-08-13 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Macro Voices | Nominal GDP growth running at 6–8% driven by fiscal spending, the AI boom, and deglobalization capex… |
| 2026-08-13 | Raoul PalCo-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PM | Bullish | Raoul Pal The Journey Man | Liquid, homogeneous fixed-income and yield products are a natural fit for tokenization — faster settlement… |
| 2026-08-11 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | The Julia La Roche Show | Nominal GDP running 7–8% is structurally incompatible with 10-year yields at 4.7%; Treasury front-end… |
| 2026-08-10 | Jim CaronCIO, Portfolio Solutions Group, Morgan Stanley Investment Mgmt | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Passive fixed income has returned near zero over five years, now positively correlates with equity drawdowns… |
| 2026-08-09 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Bearish | The Gwart Show | The Bitcoin treasury company fad has peaked; smaller entrants lack the liquidity network effects and… |
| 2026-08-08 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bullish | LifeWorthLiving | Rule #1 is diversification; holding bonds providing ~5% yield is a fixed-income counterweight when equities… |
| 2026-08-04 | Jesse FelderAuthor, The Felder Report | Bullish | Wealthion | Meaningfully tightening financial conditions — the only path to killing inflation — requires stocks and long… |
| 2026-08-03 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | DoubleLine Capital | The riskiest borrowers have migrated out of public high yield into private credit and bank loans, leaving the… |
| 2026-08-01 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Neutral | The Bullion Brief | With equity valuations at extreme CAPE multiples and multiple simultaneous tail risks (Japanese bonds, UK… |
| 2026-07-30 | Danielle Dimartino BoothCEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Bankruptcies are at 15-year highs while CCC spreads have only recently started widening, and bond yields… |
| 2026-07-28 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | Japanese GPIF repatriation under Ministry of Finance direction will force massive selling of US Treasuries… |
| 2026-07-28 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | Brazil's central bank fought inflation aggressively (having lived through 1990s hyperinflation) producing… |
| 2026-07-27 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bullish | Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC) | As the liquidity cycle peaks and begins contracting, bonds progressively replace equities and commodities… |
| 2026-07-27 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | Inflation will undershoot consensus expectations because the oil shock has already peaked and the underlying… |
| 2026-07-24 | Steven FeldmanCo-Founder & CEO, GBI | Bearish | Wealthion | Inflation is the US government's only realistic path out of a $40T debt load, which makes fixed-rate bonds a… |
| 2026-07-23 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Short | Macro Voices | Japan, Germany, Korea, UK, and US—historically creditor nations—are simultaneously turning borrowers for… |
| 2026-07-23 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Short | Macro Voices | War is always inflationary, former creditor nations Germany, Japan, and Korea are now turning borrowers to… |
| 2026-07-13 | Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth Management | Bearish | Wealthion | Rates are structurally biased higher due to Warsh's inflation mandate, Fed balance sheet reduction, and the… |
| 2026-07-11 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Economy running hot with ~7% deficit-to-GDP government spending and war-driven inflation gives the Fed no… |
| 2026-07-10 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | Structural bond bear market driven by governments running 4-7% fiscal deficits at full employment, persistent… |
| 2026-07-10 | Peter BoockvarCIO, OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | A clear global bond bear market is underway as JGB yields hit 29-year highs and French OAT and UK gilt yields… |
| 2026-07-07 | Camila AstaburuagaSenior portfolio manager, EFG Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Short-term yields have risen to attractive levels and money market funds are at all-time highs; the recent… |
| 2026-07-07 | Adrian ZuercherHead of Global Asset Allocation, UBS Global Wealth Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Too much rate-hike risk is priced in globally; the Fed is unlikely to hike and will eventually cut, while… |
| 2026-07-07 | Wei LiGlobal Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock Investment Institute | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | In a higher-for-longer rate environment EMD offers attractive income with better risk-adjusted… |
| 2026-07-06 | Russ BrownbackDeputy CIO & Head of Global Macro, BlackRock | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | EM debt offers great opportunities because countries are now trading on idiosyncratic fundamentals rather… |
| 2026-07-02 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Neutral | Bloomberg Television | Euro-area growth is tangibly slowing while markets have significant rate hikes priced in, making European… |
| 2026-06-30 | Chad MorganlanderPM, Washington Crossing Advisors | Bearish | Yahoo Finance | HY credit spreads are at historically tight levels comparable to 2007 and 1999, reflecting QE-driven… |
| 2026-06-30 | Danielle Dimartino BoothCEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research | Bullish | Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® | Market expectations for a 2026 rate hike are wrong — imminent negative month-over-month CPI prints and… |
| 2026-06-29 | Joe Terranova (Virtus)Chief market strategist, Virtus | Bullish | CNBC Halftime Final Trades | Oil falling back to $70 will flow through to CPI prints, giving the Fed no justification to hike; yields have… |
| 2026-06-29 | Bob SheehanFounder & CIO, Lighthouse Macro | Short | Forward Guidance | Supply overhang, returning term premium, declining foreign buyer participation, and the fiscal doom loop… |
| 2026-06-26 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bullish | David Lin | TIPS currently yield over 2% real, which historically is difficult to beat in real terms from financial… |
| 2026-06-25 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bullish | The Diary Of A CEO | With ~4.5-5% yields available on US government and high-grade corporate bonds, fixed income offers a… |
| 2026-06-23 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bearish | Tom Lee | The 2-year Treasury yield leads Fed funds by ~60bps (two hikes' worth), signaling the Fed must tighten and… |
| 2026-06-22 | George BoryFixed income strategist, Allspring | Bullish | CNBC Halftime Final Trades | Fed will remain on hold as data unfolds and oil/Iran uncertainty clears, making elevated yields at the 5-year… |
| 2026-06-19 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Rosenberg Research | The 2-year yield's 15bp post-FOMC surge overreacted — at 4.2% it sits 80bps above the Fed's own projected… |
| 2026-06-18 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Neutral | DoubleLine Capital | EM local currency bonds have been the best-performing asset class year-to-date for dollar-based investors… |
| 2026-06-16 | Dror PolegAuthor and economic commentator | Bullish | Wealthion | Equity upside/downside ratio has deteriorated after a multi-year run, making a defensive >50% treasury… |
| 2026-06-15 | Dan IvascynGroup CIO, PIMCO | Bearish | The Compound | AI disruption will produce a steady stream of credit losses in traditional services sectors — independent of… |
| 2026-06-11 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bearish | Wealthion | Hedge funds are exploiting a ~10–20bps mispricing between Treasury futures and off-the-run issues at 50:1… |
| 2026-06-11 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Global bond yields are breaking out in every major market except China as the Iran war drives oil and… |
| 2026-06-03 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Neutral | Wealthion | Carry on 5-year bonds at current yield levels is sufficient to offset likely yield increases, providing… |
| 2026-06-02 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Neutral | Julia La Roche Show | At current yields, mid-duration (2-5yr) treasuries carry low enough duration risk that a rate rise would not… |
| 2026-06-01 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bullish | SALT | Short-duration TIPS reprice for inflation and avoid the duration risk that kills nominal long bonds in a… |
| 2026-05-31 | Ben FelixCIO, PWL Capital | Neutral | interview | Publicly-traded high-yield bond ETFs deliver comparable total returns to private credit funds while offering… |
| 2026-05-30 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | TIPS are pricing only 2-3% inflation while Whalen expects double-digit inflation driven by commodity… |
| 2026-05-28 | George Goncalves (MUFG)Bond market strategist | Bullish | Wealthion | Two-year Treasuries offer attractive yield competitive with money markets and will outperform long-duration… |
| 2026-05-28 | Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices)Co-host, MacroVoices & Market Huddle | Bearish | Macro Voices | Unresolved Strait of Hormuz closure keeps energy-driven inflation elevated, preventing yields from declining… |
| 2026-05-28 | Gabriela SantosChief market strategist for the Americas, J.P. Morgan Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | The front end of the US yield curve is pricing in a full Fed rate hike over the next 12 months, which is… |
| 2026-05-27 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bullish | Wealthion | Passive investing mechanics have mechanically suppressed demand for long-duration Treasuries—not fundamental… |
| 2026-05-25 | Manoj PradhanFounder, Talking Heads Macro | Bearish | Hidden Forces | Aging demographics create structural upward pressure on real rates through two persistent channels—rising… |
| 2026-05-22 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bullish | Wealthion | TIPS are paying 2.5–3% real yield on top of current 3.8% inflation, offering total returns of ~6%+ with… |
| 2026-05-21 | Daniel LacalleChief Economist & CIO, Tressis | Bearish | Wealthion | Governments continue issuing excess currency to fund structural deficits, keeping inflation persistent, which… |
| 2026-05-20 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bullish | Wealthion | All-in yields on investment grade bonds near 5% offer an acceptable risk-adjusted return with principal… |
| 2026-05-19 | George NobleFormer Fidelity & hedge fund manager | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Brazil offers 14% nominal yields, 10% real rates, and an undervalued appreciating currency versus US bonds… |
| 2026-05-19 | Ben FelixCIO, PWL Capital | Bearish | BiggerPockets Money and Ben Felix | Nominal bonds carry high real-return risk over very long horizons because they are not inflation-adjusted… |
| 2026-05-19 | David De BoltzMD, leveraged finance, J.P. Morgan | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | HPC-sector high-yield bonds have returned 10% YTD versus 2% for the broad HY index — 800bps of outperformance… |
| 2026-05-17 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bullish | Michael Green | At a 5% nominal yield, 30-year Treasuries allow retirees to live entirely off coupon income without touching… |
| 2026-05-14 | Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices)Co-host, MacroVoices & Market Huddle | Bearish | Macro Voices | 10-year yields have broken out to multi-month highs driven by oil-price inflation fears, trend is higher… |
| 2026-05-14 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Neutral | DoubleLine Capital | Poor-quality leveraged borrowers have migrated out of the public high yield market and into private credit… |
| 2026-05-07 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Neutral | Bloomberg Podcasts | Private credit stress has not yet spilled into public high yield as theorized by private credit bulls, with… |
| 2026-05-05 | Purnima PuriFounding partner & head of liquid credit, HPS Investment Partners | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | Strong corporate earnings, low default rates outside AI-disrupted software/IT sectors, and elevated base… |
| 2026-04-30 | Rob ArnottFounder & chairman, Research Affiliates | Bearish | Money Maze Podcast | EM bond yield spreads remain more attractive than US high yield, offering a rich opportunity set that is… |
| 2026-04-30 | Ben FelixCIO, PWL Capital | Bearish | The Diary Of A CEO and Ben Felix | Bonds are riskier than conventionally believed for long-term investors because high inflation periods… |
| 2026-04-28 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Bearish | Invest Like The Best | The US is clearly in a sovereign debt bubble, and a significant equity market mean-reversion would blow out… |
| 2026-04-28 | Steven WietingChief investment strategist, Citi Wealth | Bullish | CNBC Closing Bell Overtime | AI CapEx boom plus a Hormuz supply shock together push toward higher nominal growth skewed toward inflation… |
| 2026-04-27 | John SheehanPartner & Portfolio Manager, Osterweis Capital Management | Bullish | Odd Lots | The HY market has dramatically improved in quality as riskier credits migrated to private credit and… |
| 2026-04-20 | David WooIndependent macro strategist (ex-BofA) | Short | interview | A war-driven oil price shock will push long-end bond yields higher even as the Fed refuses to hike, as… |
| 2026-04-18 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | With inflation running well above T-bill yields and no Fed cuts expected, holders are locking in a guaranteed… |
| 2026-04-14 | Bill AckmanCEO, Pershing Square | Bullish | Pershing Square | A planned fund that parks capital in short-term US Treasuries whose interest income funds asymmetric macro… |
| 2026-04-09 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bearish | Macro Voices | The US has failed to hit its 2% inflation target for five consecutive years and is now structurally in a ~3%… |
| 2026-04-09 | Rob RoweHead of global strategy & macro, Citi Research | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | Fed rate cuts expected to begin September 2026 as a stagflationary environment eventually pressures the labor… |
| 2026-03-31 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | interview | Private credit defaults will cascade into significant repricing of single-B and below; current HY spreads at… |
| 2026-03-30 | Katerina SimonettiSVP, Senior Portfolio Manager, Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | Higher rates create a buying opportunity for income-generating quality bonds, which also diversify… |
| 2026-03-19 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bullish | TheRoyaltyKing | Even though bonds are no longer a viable long-term investment, they may outperform short-term as liquidity… |
| 2026-03-18 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | Google issuing 100-year bonds at 5.8% exemplifies peak market optimism and credulousness, making such… |
| 2026-03-12 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bearish | Macro Voices | Gasoline up 18% in 9 days will push March CPI to 6-7% annualized and keep year-over-year inflation above 3%… |
| 2026-03-12 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Short | Louis-Vincent Gave | Binary Iran outcome is bad for bonds either way: war continuation is inflationary and disrupts supply chains… |
| 2026-03-10 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Goldfinger Capital | JGBs already traded like an emerging-market asset in H2 last year with yields rising while the yen fell… |
| 2026-03-10 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bullish | Michael Green | Passive index mechanics create a structural ~40% underweight in longer-duration bonds as falling prices… |
| 2026-03-09 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | CNBC Television | European central banks with a single mandate will be forced to hike rates in response to the oil-driven… |
| 2026-03-06 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Neutral | Fox Business | With the economy performing well and the Fed unlikely to cut rates, a 4–4.5% 10-year yield is a fair, healthy… |
| 2026-03-05 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® | Real rates are attractive and inflation expectations are set to drop measurably by year-end, making… |
| 2026-03-02 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Neutral | CNBC Television | Stagflationary pressure from the Iran conflict combined with hot inflation prints (ISM prices paid spike… |
| 2026-03-02 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Stable Latin American countries offer real economy exposure with currency upside as dollar weakens, and… |
| 2026-03-02 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bullish | 51 Insights | As liquidity downswings, investors seek protection from systemic risk and defaults by rotating into… |
| 2026-02-28 | Stanley DruckenmillerChairman/CEO, Duquesne Family Office | Bearish | Druckenmiller Official | Default rates are climbing and credit spreads are widening as companies that borrowed cheaply now face… |
| 2026-02-27 | Aswath DamodaranProfessor of finance, NYU Stern | Bearish | Meb Faber | Companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets misuse the stabilizing function of cash, turning a risk… |
| 2026-02-17 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | CNBC Television | Fundamentals and valuations don't support a sub-4% 10-year yield; expects yields to revert to a 4–4.5% range… |
| 2026-02-11 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Wise Metals Investor | China has been unwinding Treasury holdings since 2013 and is now openly directing banks to reduce exposure… |
| 2026-02-09 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bullish | CNBC Television | AI-driven productivity gains raise the economy's non-inflationary speed limit, reducing inflation pressure… |
| 2026-02-06 | Jim ChanosShort seller — Chanos & Co (family office) | Short | RiskReversal Media | Micro Strategy and similar crypto treasury companies traded at massive premiums to their underlying Bitcoin… |
| 2026-01-29 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Short | interview | Japanese 40-year yield spiked 25 bps in a day, signaling a global bond market regime shift where sovereign… |
| 2026-01-21 | Ken GriffinFounder & CEO, Citadel | Bearish | Larry Fink | Governments globally are spending well beyond their means with no validated productivity offset yet, making… |
| 2026-01-20 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Jeffrey Gundlach | Fed is far behind the curve with unemployment heading to 6% and core inflation ex-tariffs near 2.2% and… |
| 2026-01-20 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Natalie Brunell | China is deliberately weaponizing trade leverage against Japan — strengthening the yuan, restricting dual-use… |
| 2026-01-14 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Joe Burnett | JGBs are exhibiting EM-like dynamics where rising yields and a weakening yen move together, signaling the… |
| 2026-01-11 | Grant WilliamsFinancial writer & podcast host | Bearish | Grant Williams Podcast | After the US confiscated Russia's dollar reserves via SWIFT, sovereign actors can no longer trust Treasuries… |
| 2026-01-09 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Bullish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Post-jobs-report cheapening in the front-to-belly of the curve offers a better entry while that segment most… |
| 2026-01-08 | Ray DalioFounder, Bridgewater Associates | Bullish | interview | As governments monetize debt and devalue currencies, TIPS guarantee a real return of roughly 2% above… |
| 2025-12-31 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bearish | LifeWorthLiving | Tariff-induced margin squeeze reduces corporate liquidity, while deteriorating capital account reduces the $5… |
| 2025-12-15 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bullish | Louis-Vincent Gave | Trump's Monroe Doctrine pivot — underwriting Argentina, pressuring Venezuela, redirecting strategic focus to… |
| 2025-12-10 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | DoubleLine Capital | The belly of the Treasury curve (2-7yr) is the performance driver — a leveraged 2-year Treasury has blown… |
| 2025-12-02 | Grant WilliamsFinancial writer & podcast host | Bearish | Grant Williams Podcast | Foreign central bank demand for Treasuries peaked around 2014 and has been declining ever since, replaced by… |
| 2025-11-28 | Russell NapierMarket strategist & financial historian | Bearish | Prime Quadrant | As surplus countries repatriate capital home to fund indigenous industrial policy and buy their own… |
| 2025-11-18 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Bullish | interview | At sub-1.5× MNAV the leading Bitcoin treasury names have shed the summer excess and sit in a reasonable… |
| 2025-11-17 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Neutral | interview | EM fixed income is the top-performing fixed income sector year-to-date for dollar-based investors and… |
| 2025-11-03 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | interview | Dollar weakness translates directly into currency gains on unhedged EM local-currency exposure, stacking on… |
| 2025-10-29 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | CNBC Television | The Fed has cut 150bps but the 2-year is only down 5bps while the 10-year is up since September 2024 cuts… |
| 2025-10-29 | Scott MelkerHost, The Wolf of All Streets | Bullish | Wealthion | Solana and Ethereum treasury companies can structurally beat their underlying assets by 10–20% annually by… |
| 2025-10-23 | Brett RentmeesterCIO, Jaggi Family Office | Bearish | Wealthion | Junk-bond spreads over Treasuries are near historical lows (~2–2.5%), so investors are not being compensated… |
| 2025-10-22 | Jim ChanosShort seller — Chanos & Co (family office) | Short | Bloomberg Podcasts | Strategy 'wannabe' companies that adopted Bitcoin treasury models have already collapsed below 1.0x NAV… |
| 2025-10-16 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bullish | CNBC Television | Concerns about credit quality, regional banks, and alternative asset managers are driving financial stability… |
| 2025-10-14 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bullish | CNBC Television | There is $4.1 trillion sitting in digital wallets globally and tokenizing traditional assets like ETFs allows… |
| 2025-10-14 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Short | Bloomberg Podcasts | Fiscal deficits of 6% of GDP, a politically driven push to cut Fed funds to 2.25–2.5%, and eventual inflation… |
| 2025-10-11 | Patrick BoyleFinance professor; ex-hedge fund manager | Bearish | interview | Bonds rallied on US ESF intervention and Bessent's support announcement, but the bailout lacks enforceable… |
| 2025-10-08 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Wealthion | Monetary inflation structurally devalues paper money and nominal bonds; real returns on government bonds will… |
| 2025-10-01 | Christopher PerkinsHead of Franklin Crypto, Franklin Templeton | Bullish | Wealthion | DATs are superior to Solana ETFs because a CEO-led equity structure can actively redeploy capital across DeFi… |
| 2025-09-26 | Steve RomickPortfolio Manager, FPA Crescent Fund, First Pacific Advisors | Bearish | The Compound | HY spreads at 300bps are 200bps tighter than the 500bps historical average, yields at 7.1% are ~100bps below… |
| 2025-09-23 | Marco SantoriCEO, Solmate | Bullish | Mike Novogratz | Digital asset treasury companies will structurally replace the traditional foundation model for stewarding… |
| 2025-09-19 | Bill AckmanCEO, Pershing Square | Short | PermCap Investment Office | MBIA's AAA rating masked near-insolvency because its thin capital base was guaranteeing subprime mortgages… |
| 2025-09-11 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | With fiscal deficits running at 6%+ annually, rate cuts poised to reignite inflation, and the crowding-out of… |
| 2025-09-09 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Bullish | CNBC Television | Real rates out to 5 years are genuinely attractive with inflation running ~3% and nominal yields still near… |
| 2025-09-05 | Emily WoodPrincipal & financial planner (CFP), Grimes & Company | Neutral | Wealthion | Rate-cut uncertainty keeps the long end elevated while the Fed only controls the short end, so floating rate… |
| 2025-09-03 | Ben KizemchukPortfolio Manager, Wellington-Altus Private Counsel | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Financial repression keeps real rates suppressed while inflation anchors around 3.5%, making government bonds… |
| 2025-09-01 | Marvin BarthFounder, Thematic Markets | Bearish | Hidden Forces | Localization forces a rebuild of domestic capital stock, permanently raising investment demand while… |
| 2025-08-27 | Alfonso PeccatielloFounder, The Macro Compass | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Political capture of the FOMC pushes Fed funds toward neutral while nominal growth stays above neutral due to… |
| 2025-08-26 | Brett RentmeesterCIO, Jaggi Family Office | Bearish | Wealthion | Structural debt levels and ongoing money printing create long-term upside risk to interest rates and… |
| 2025-08-25 | Dave CollumProfessor of Chemistry, Cornell University | Neutral | Wealthion | Capital preservation in T-bills out to 2 years provides liquidity and optionality to deploy into assets after… |
| 2025-08-25 | Sony KapoorProfessor, European University Institute; CEO, NIFTYS | Bearish | Hidden Forces | Rising real debt servicing costs and growing investor reluctance to hold long-dated paper are shortening… |
| 2025-08-21 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Credit offers contractual returns approaching 6%+ with defensive downside protection versus elevated equity… |
| 2025-08-21 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Long-end yields move higher over the next three weeks regardless of Jackson Hole outcome due to structural… |
| 2025-08-20 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Credit offers a contractual promised return in the high single digits that is highly likely to deliver… |
| 2025-08-20 | David GriderPartner & Head of Liquid Investments, Finality Capital Partners | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Crypto corporate credit (senior notes, converts, preferreds on DATs) trades at a yield premium to traditional… |
| 2025-08-16 | Aswath DamodaranProfessor of finance, NYU Stern | Neutral | Excess Returns | Bond income generates taxable cash flows that erode after-tax returns, making bonds inferior to equities for… |
| 2025-08-15 | Andy SchwartzCo-Founder & Managing Partner, Bleakley Financial Group | Bullish | Wealthion | With the Fed expected to cut ~100bps through mid-2026, modestly extending duration now locks in current… |
| 2025-08-13 | Seth GinnsCIO, Franklin Crypto | Bullish | Wealthion | DATs are in the early seeding phase of becoming permanent-capital vehicles that bridge traditional finance… |
| 2025-08-12 | Mike NovogratzFounder/CEO, Galaxy Digital | Bearish | Natalie Brunell | While MicroStrategy succeeded by building a unique identity beyond just Bitcoin exposure, the flood of… |
| 2025-08-10 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Bearish | Forward Guidance | A tariff reversal forces ~$100B in reimbursements plus eliminates ~$400B in annual revenue, blowing out the… |
| 2025-08-07 | Edward ChancellorColumnist, Reuters Breakingviews | Bearish | Hidden Forces | Government bonds are mislabeled as risk-free assets; at the end of the debt supercycle they are backed by… |
| 2025-08-04 | Mark MobiusEM investor — ex-Franklin Templeton | Bullish | interview | Equity valuations are stretched globally and a correction is likely, while US Treasuries offer a safe 4-5%… |
| 2025-08-01 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Copycat ETH/SOL treasury companies are floating near 1x MNAV with their ATM and convertible bond markets both… |
| 2025-07-30 | Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth | Bearish | The Compound | 98 companies announcing $43B+ in capital raises purely to buy Bitcoin constitutes leveraged dumb-money frenzy… |
| 2025-07-28 | Michael AndersonCo-founder, Framework Ventures | Bullish | Hidden Forces | A structural void of liquid capital pursuing productive public crypto tokens has emerged post-Alameda/3AC… |
| 2025-07-23 | Scott BessentSecretary of the Treasury, U.S. Department of the Treasury | Bullish | All-In Podcast | GENIUS Act stablecoin legislation requires backing in sub-90-day instruments, which Bessent believes will… |
| 2025-07-21 | Brett RentmeesterCIO, Jaggi Family Office | Bearish | Wealthion | With global debt levels at extremes and governments structurally printing money, bonds face a potential… |
| 2025-07-16 | Vivek RamanCo-founder & CEO, Etherealize | Bullish | Wealthion | Publicly traded companies accumulating ETH as a treasury asset (analogous to MicroStrategy for Bitcoin) will… |
| 2025-07-07 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Treasury vehicles are structurally more attractive than ETFs over time because they offer leveraged… |
| 2025-07-02 | Marko PapicGeopolitical macro strategist | Bullish | Wealthion | The Big Beautiful Bill stabilizes rather than expands the deficit, tariffs will stay modest enough to collect… |
| 2025-06-30 | Rizzo | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Bitcoin treasury companies exploit structural market asymmetries in every capital market globally —… |
| 2025-06-27 | Andy SchwartzCo-Founder & Managing Partner, Bleakley Financial Group | Bearish | Wealthion | Even if the Fed cuts short rates, long-end yields may stay elevated or rise because bond market investors… |
| 2025-06-27 | Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Dearth of new high yield issuance forces managers to reinvest income right back into HY, creating a… |
| 2025-06-25 | Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | The Genius Act mandating $1 of dollar-denominated reserves for every $1 of stablecoins issued creates… |
| 2025-06-17 | Christopher PerkinsHead of Franklin Crypto, Franklin Templeton | Bullish | Wealthion | Layer-one blockchains (ETH, SOL) emit native yields that can be structured into fixed income and structured… |
| 2025-06-10 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Wealthion | 5% is the new structural normal for 10-year yields — the mortgage-backed securities market implies fair value… |
| 2025-06-06 | Kevin GrimesCEO & CIO, Grimes & Company | Bullish | Wealthion | With the 10-year Treasury near 4.5%, bonds now offer a yield competitive with S&P 500 earnings yield at far… |
| 2025-06-04 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bullish | Forward Guidance | At 5% yields, bonds offer a '5% return with less volatility' versus equities' expected ~6% with far greater… |
| 2025-06-02 | Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth Management | Bearish | Wealthion | Long-dated bonds are highly sensitive to interest rate moves and heading into a recession with potentially… |
| 2025-05-23 | Kevin GrimesCEO & CIO, Grimes & Company | Neutral | Wealthion | Credit spreads remain tight (no recession priced), high yield has delivered lower volatility than Treasuries… |
| 2025-05-21 | Kevin MuirIndependent trader — The Macro Tourist | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Expanding US fiscal deficits, foreign capital repatriation reducing overseas demand, and record-long… |
| 2025-05-19 | Jim RogersChairman, Rogers Holdings | Bearish | Wealthion | Inflation has not ended globally and massive US debt burdens will force long-term interest rates materially… |
| 2025-05-16 | Alexis MillerDirector of Investment Research, Bleakley Financial Group | Bullish | Wealthion | High-yield spreads have compressed from ~150bps to near-historic-tight levels, meaning investors are not… |
| 2025-05-15 | Russell NapierMarket strategist & financial historian | Bearish | Hidden Forces | A 30–40 year bond bear market began in 2020/2021 and financial repression will inflate away sovereign debts… |
| 2025-05-14 | Tavi CostaPartner, Crescat Capital | Bullish | Wealthion | Fed stubbornness while the economy slows or contracts will force a sharp drop in the 2-year yield toward a… |
| 2025-05-09 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Fed cuts are delayed but not eliminated, pushing expectations further out the curve; 2-year has… |
| 2025-04-25 | Danny DayanCIO, DWD Partners | Short | Forward Guidance | Dollar doom loop and sticky inflation mean bond market is pricing only the weak-growth side of stagflation… |
| 2025-04-18 | Josh Brown (Ritholtz)CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management | Bullish | The Compound | The 4.5–5% 10-year yield is market-mechanic and foreign-flow driven, not fundamental; inflation is heading… |
| 2025-04-16 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | Oaktree Capital | High yield bonds currently yield 7.3% contractually, which compares favorably to S&P 500 expected low… |
| 2025-04-16 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Neutral | Wealthion | Bond yields have normalized to their pre-GFC equilibrium of ~4.5% (2.25% TIPS + 2.25% inflation), so you earn… |
| 2025-04-14 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | In a decoupling, multipolar world the cost of capital rises globally, making sovereign bonds of any country… |
| 2025-04-13 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | Four consecutive down years in bonds reflect permanent impairment of trust driven by confiscation of Russian… |
| 2025-04-07 | Brett RentmeesterCIO, Jaggi Family Office | Neutral | Wealthion | Rolling short-term Treasuries as a cash-equivalent placeholder while avoiding long-duration bonds; preserves… |
| 2025-04-05 | Kyle BassFounder/CIO, Hayman Capital | Bullish | TorontoWealthGroup | The Fed will be late to cut rates as GDP prints turn negative and stagflationary, forcing the front end lower… |
| 2025-04-04 | Tony GreerFounder, TG Macro | Bullish | Forward Guidance | The 10-year yield has broken the 4.10% neckline of a clear head-and-shoulders pattern that targets 3.60%… |
| 2025-04-01 | Bill MillerFounder, Miller Value Partners (retired) | Bearish | Bitcoin Magazine | Companies facing secular business decline can use excess cash to buy Bitcoin as a store of value, preserving… |
| 2025-03-28 | Jeff ParkPartner, ParaFi Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Companies holding 1,000+ BTC on their balance sheets (Block, Tesla, Metaplanet, Semler) offer Bitcoin… |
| 2025-03-26 | Le ShrubCIO, family office (Monaco) | Bullish | Forward Guidance | US economic slowdown from the policy detox period is bond-positive, and a Ukraine ceasefire would lower… |
| 2025-03-25 | Joseph WangCIO, Monetary Macro | Bullish | Forward Guidance | A significant equity market correction will trigger a flight-to-safety bid and force the market to price in… |
| 2025-03-19 | John RubinoAuthor & Newsletter, JohnRubino.Substack.com | Bearish | Wealthion | Europe is already going bankrupt at an accelerating rate due to demographics and social programs, and a… |
| 2025-03-15 | Kevin GrimesCEO & CIO, Grimes & Company | Neutral | Wealthion | At 4.3% yield, the 10-year is fairly valued relative to expected nominal GDP (GDP growth ~2-2.5% plus… |
| 2025-03-14 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Inflation is effectively done—OPEC supply caps oil and front-running tariff imports already building… |
| 2025-03-13 | David IbenCIO, Kopernik Global Investors | Bearish | Wealthion | With US annual interest costs near $1 trillion and deficit spending requiring eventual monetization, the bond… |
| 2025-03-13 | Paul DietrichChief investment strategist, Wedbush Securities | Bullish | Fox Claman Countdown | As the business cycle turns toward recession, shifting equity exposure into bonds provides defensive capital… |
| 2025-03-13 | David StreskiCEO, Sound Planning Group | Bullish | Fox Claman Countdown | Profit-taking from equities amid tariff-driven volatility should be redeployed into treasuries as a near-term… |
| 2025-03-11 | Margie PatelSenior portfolio manager, Allspring Global Investments | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | HY bonds yielding ~6.5% with only ~3-year duration offer returns comparable to equity expectations for 2025… |
| 2025-03-11 | Steve Weiss (Short Hills)Founder, Short Hills Capital Partners | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Policy uncertainty and economic weakness are pushing yields down, and the Trump administration is not opposed… |
| 2025-03-05 | Jeff deGraafFounder & Chairman, Renaissance Macro Research | Bullish | Forward Guidance | 10-year yields are capped at 5% with a floor near 3.50% and are currently oversold within a neutral trend… |
| 2025-03-03 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | Tariffs are proving deflationary by sapping consumer confidence, which should force the Fed off its hawkish… |
| 2025-02-26 | Andy LeesFounder, Macrostrategy Partnership | Bullish | Wealthion | The Fed will cut rates more than markets currently price because depleted reverse repo, declining Treasury… |
| 2025-02-24 | Callie CoxChief Market Strategist, Ritholtz Wealth Management | Bullish | The Compound | Shorter-duration treasuries offer a cleaner economic-weakness hedge than the 10-year because the long end… |
| 2025-02-13 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bullish | Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® | TIPS principal adjusts directly with realized inflation, providing explicit protection against his base case… |
| 2025-02-12 | Andreas Steno LarsenFounder & CEO, Steno Research | Bullish | Forward Guidance | The Truflation real-time inflation measure has reverted to September-October 2024 levels when the 10-year… |
| 2025-02-07 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Wealthion | T-bills yield 4–4.5% with zero duration risk and zero capital risk, making cash a genuine risk-adjusted… |
| 2025-01-31 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | With 100bps of cuts, fiscal deficits at 6%+, credit and manufacturing reflating, and bank lending… |
| 2025-01-29 | Brett RentmeesterCIO, Jaggi Family Office | Bullish | Wealthion | Rolling short-term Treasuries at current rates provides attractive liquid yield while avoiding the duration… |
| 2025-01-25 | Bob ElliottCEO & CIO, Unlimited Funds | Bullish | The Compound | TIPS are offering a 2.5% real yield with zero default risk, the most attractive level in roughly 25 years… |
| 2025-01-25 | Joe DuranCEO, Rise Growth Partners | Bullish | Wealthion | Bonds have pulled back from 4.8% to 4.4-4.5% on the 10-year, making rebalancing into fixed income attractive… |
| 2025-01-23 | Brad GerstnerFounder & CEO, Altimeter Capital | Bullish | Bg2 Pod | Inflation will not reignite, so rates are at or near a cyclical peak over the next few months. |
| 2025-01-23 | Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors | Bearish | Words of Rizdom | Structural inflation from populism and protectionism combined with potential Fed politicization under Trump… |
| 2025-01-20 | Stanley DruckenmillerChairman/CEO, Duquesne Family Office | Short | CNBC Television | Fed cut was a policy mistake that risks re-igniting animal spirits and inflation, compounded by a… |
| 2025-01-15 | Chris VermeulenFounder & Chief Investment Strategist, The Technical Traders | Bearish | Wealthion | The 40-year falling-rate cycle has ended and Fibonacci extensions on the long-term chart project a new upward… |
| 2025-01-10 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | The 2-year yield is effectively hard-capped at the fed funds rate because rate hikes are off the table, while… |
| 2025-01-09 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | Walker & Dunlop | Sticky inflation, a resilient economy largely immune to rate hikes, ongoing QT reducing Fed balance sheet… |
| 2025-01-08 | Kyle BassFounder/CIO, Hayman Capital | Bullish | American Thought Leaders - The Epoch Times | Chinese bond yields collapsing below 2% (10yr ~1.75%, 30yr sub-2%) signal China is in recession, confirming… |
| 2025-01-03 | Steven FeldmanCo-Founder & CEO, GBI | Bearish | Wealthion | Endemic inflation above 3%, $8 trillion in 2025 debt rollovers, massive corporate re-issuance, and… |
| 2024-12-28 | David CervantesFounder, Pinebrook Capital Management | Bullish | Forward Guidance | A newly hawkish Fed will extinguish the last mile of inflation more quickly, which paradoxically puts a bid… |
| 2024-12-20 | Sven CarlinFounder, Sven Carlin Research Platform | Bullish | Wealthion | 4% risk-free T-bill yield with zero downside offers clearly superior risk/reward versus S&P 500's 1% yield… |
| 2024-12-17 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | Future Proof | Fed is far behind the curve and will cut aggressively, driving short-to-medium yields sharply lower while… |
| 2024-12-14 | Jared DillianAuthor, The Daily Dirtnap | Bearish | Wealthion | The Fed cut 100bps while risk assets were booming and will likely be forced to reverse course and hike in… |
| 2024-12-11 | Henrik ZebergHead Macroeconomist, Swissblock | Bearish | Wealthion | Yields are at an inflection point and will decline strongly as the economy deteriorates, mirroring October… |
| 2024-12-10 | Jared DillianAuthor, The Daily Dirtnap | Bullish | Wealthion | Post-election bond selloff assumed Trump would blow out the deficit like his first term, but Bessent's… |
| 2024-12-07 | Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | The 'Milkin moment for crypto' — miners issuing zero-coupon converts sell volatility to trad-fi investors… |
| 2024-11-30 | Ram AhluwaliaCEO, Lumida Wealth | Neutral | Wealthion | Agency MBS is mispriced relative to risk: implicitly backed by the full faith and credit of the US government… |
| 2024-11-28 | Ram AhluwaliaCEO, Lumida Wealth | Bullish | Wealthion | Agency MBS carry an implicit US government guarantee but yield approximately 250 basis points over comparable… |
| 2024-11-27 | Ron WilliamFounder & Market Strategist, RW Advisory | Bearish | Wealthion | Structural inflation resurgence driven by fiscal expansion and rolling waves of price pressure (1970s analog)… |
| 2024-11-25 | Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR Capital | Bullish | interview | Applying the same quantitative value, quality, and momentum factors used in equities to corporate credit… |
| 2024-11-22 | Meb FaberCo-founder & CIO, Cambria | Bullish | Lead-Lag Media | Corporate and other risky bond spreads over T-bills are near 30-year lows, meaning investors are not being… |
| 2024-11-15 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Wealthion | Trump ran vocally on a disinflation platform, post-election bond yields have already overshot, and when the… |
| 2024-11-13 | Jonathan WellumCEO & CIO, RockLinc Investment Partners | Bearish | Wealthion | Inflation persistence and structural fiscal deficits risk driving yields higher; capping duration at 2-3yr… |
| 2024-11-12 | Bob ElliottCEO & CIO, Unlimited Funds | Bearish | Wealthion | Central banks are cutting rates into a strong economy (not a crisis), which is overly easy monetary policy… |
| 2024-11-08 | Katie StocktonTechnical strategist — Fairlead | Bullish | The Compound | Post-election spike in Treasury yields is overdone relative to the pace at which tariff and fiscal policy can… |
| 2024-11-06 | Stanley DruckenmillerChairman/CEO, Duquesne Family Office | Short | interview | Fed cut 50bp into historically loose financial conditions (gold at new highs, equities roaring, credit… |
| 2024-11-06 | Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Populism-driven fiscal spending and protectionism mirror the 1960s-70s secular inflation cycle, creating… |
| 2024-11-02 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Sovereigns cannot let credit spreads widen because of structural boomer-liability obligations, so they must… |
| 2024-11-01 | Michael BingerPresident, Gradient Investments | Bearish | Wealthion | Inflation is likely stuck in a 2.5–4% band for three to five years rather than re-accelerating, making the… |
| 2024-10-26 | Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | As fixed-income becomes structurally less desirable (fiscal Ponzi, inflation risk), the convert market offers… |
| 2024-10-24 | Brett RentmeesterCIO, Jaggi Family Office | Bullish | Wealthion | With interest rates potentially rising in a re-inflationary environment, duration risk is a major bond… |
| 2024-10-22 | Jared DillianAuthor, The Daily Dirtnap | Bearish | Wealthion | Massive fiscal issuance from either election winner, Fed rate cuts reigniting inflation psychology, and a… |
| 2024-10-16 | Stanley DruckenmillerChairman/CEO, Duquesne Family Office | Short | Bloomberg Television | The Fed cut 50bps into a financial melt-up with equities, gold, and crypto at record highs, fiscal expansion… |
| 2024-10-07 | Bob ElliottCEO & CIO, Unlimited Funds | Bearish | Hidden Forces | Easy monetary policy supporting nominal GDP growth structurally erodes the real value of money, making bonds… |
| 2024-10-03 | Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth Management | Bullish | Wealthion | Near-term Fed rate cuts will support shorter-duration bonds but yields will eventually tick higher as… |
| 2024-10-02 | Harley BassmanManaging Partner, Simplify Asset Management | Short | Forward Guidance | MOVE at 95-100 while 1-month realized bond vol is only 68 — a ~40% premium vs the historical 8-12% norm for… |
| 2024-10-01 | Jeremy SchwartzGlobal CIO, WisdomTree | Bullish | Wealthion | Short-duration bonds hedge portfolio against the scenario where inflation re-accelerates and forces the Fed… |
| 2024-09-21 | Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Upgrades are exceeding downgrades for the fifth consecutive month, bank lending is re-inflecting, and rate… |
| 2024-09-21 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | The Fed front-loading cuts preemptively removes accommodation and re-accelerates the economy, which pushes… |
| 2024-09-20 | Lauren GoodwinChief market strategist, New York Life Investments | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | High quality high yield is 2024's best-performing fixed income sector given a constructive economic… |
| 2024-09-20 | Lauren GoodwinChief market strategist, New York Life Investments | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Fed has begun an easing cycle so cash yields of 5%+ will decline, making reinvestment risk the top investor… |
| 2024-09-19 | James LavishCo-Managing Partner, Bitcoin Opportunity Fund | Bearish | Forward Guidance | With money supply expanding at 7%+ annually, inflation will persistently exceed 30-year yields producing… |
| 2024-09-14 | Jared DillianAuthor, The Daily Dirtnap | Short | Wealthion | 30-year yields at ~4% are grossly mispriced because fiscal policy will be inflationary regardless of which… |
| 2024-09-13 | Richard KooChief Economist, Nomura Research Institute | Bearish | Forward Guidance | China is in a balance sheet recession where private-sector deleveraging forces money back into financial… |
| 2024-09-05 | Jonny MatthewsSenior Portfolio Manager, Fortem Capital | Short | Forward Guidance | If the Fed cuts as aggressively as priced the economy will reaccelerate quickly, inflation is not fully… |
| 2024-08-28 | Emily RolandCo-chief investment strategist, Manulife John Hancock Investments | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | HY spreads near 300bps (well below the 20-year average of 500bps) imply 12-month forward returns of only 0-1%… |
| 2024-08-28 | Marilyn WatsonHead of global fundamental fixed income strategy, BlackRock | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | ECB on track to cut rates again in September and roughly once a quarter thereafter, supporting Spanish… |
| 2024-08-28 | Marilyn WatsonHead of global fundamental fixed income strategy, BlackRock | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | ECB on track to cut rates again in September and continuing on a gradual easing path, making Spanish duration… |
| 2024-08-27 | Matt StuckeyChief Portfolio Manager, Equities, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | High quality fixed income is competitive with compressed large-cap equity risk premiums and provides… |
| 2024-08-26 | Michael DruryChief economist, McVean Trading & Investments | Short | Forward Guidance | Nominal US GDP growth remains near 4-5% and services inflation is sticky, meaning the Fed will keep rates… |
| 2024-08-24 | Jared DillianAuthor, The Daily Dirtnap | Bearish | Wealthion | Fed funds futures are pricing ~6 total rate cuts and ~3.5 cuts by year-end across just 3 remaining 2024… |
| 2024-08-22 | Eric FinePortfolio Manager & Head of Active EM Debt, VanEck | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Ministry of Finance-owned entities like HNA and multinationals with offshore assets sold off to 60 cents on… |
| 2024-08-21 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | Oaktree Capital | The sea change from declining/ultra-low rates to a normalized higher-rate regime makes credit instruments… |
| 2024-08-21 | Jared DillianAuthor, The Daily Dirtnap | Short | Wealthion | The market has priced in roughly six Fed rate cuts while Dillian expects only one before year-end, making… |
| 2024-08-20 | Steve HankeProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University | Bullish | Wealthion | Quantity theory of money predicts continued disinflation, which will pull 10-year yields further below their… |
| 2024-08-08 | Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Global capital is pivoting from sovereign bonds to US equities for safety; yields are permanently higher as… |
| 2024-08-06 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | interview | The fixed-income market overshot during the Monday panic selloff—with the 2-year moving 20 bps… |
| 2024-08-02 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Bullish | Forward Guidance | QRA showed reduced bill issuance driven by the QT taper, cutting net supply while forward inflation… |
| 2024-08-01 | Danny DayanCIO, DWD Partners | Bearish | Forward Guidance | At 4% yield with nominal GDP running at 5.9%, the 10-year offers no term premium and is deeply mispriced… |
| 2024-07-25 | Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices)Co-host, MacroVoices & Market Huddle | Neutral | Marko Papic | Bonds are acting as a partial safe haven and yields are drifting lower, but the outlook is not for a large… |
| 2024-07-17 | Ian LyngenMD & head of US rates strategy, BMO Capital Markets | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Strong seasonal bias for 30-year yields to drift lower through summer, Fed has effectively pre-committed to a… |
| 2024-07-17 | Amanda LynamChief credit strategist, Goldman Sachs | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | The high yield market is bifurcated with a large portion of the index trading inside 200bps spread, making… |
| 2024-07-09 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Rosenberg Research | An impending recession will force Fed rate cuts, driving solid bond returns; prefers 10-year over 30-year to… |
| 2024-07-03 | Margie PatelSenior portfolio manager, Allspring Global Investments | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Fundamentals are at historic highs with low bankruptcies despite rate hikes, and net new supply is minimal… |
| 2024-05-23 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | DoubleLine Capital | Belly of the curve provides recession/slowdown hedge with price upside in a Pavlovian bond rally while… |
| 2024-04-05 | Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR Capital | Bullish | The Meb Faber Show | Real yields on long TIPS have returned to historically normal positive levels (~2%), making them reasonably… |
| 2024-03-14 | Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors | Short | Schwab Network | Cyclical fiscal spending and loose monetary policy continue driving inflation higher while the Fed refuses to… |
| 2024-01-21 | Dan TapieroFounder & CEO, 10T Holdings | Bullish | Raoul Pal | ISM price component dropping sharply signals deflationary pressure the Fed misjudged, forcing rates back… |
| 2023-12-20 | Warren BuffettChairman, Berkshire Hathaway | Bullish | OnefootHurdle | With ~$128 billion in cash equivalents, Berkshire systematically buys T-bills every Monday because yields… |
| 2023-11-28 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Bullish | Mark Moss | With broad risk assets offering poor real returns, T-bills at current yields provide a competitive risk-free… |
| 2023-10-04 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | David Rubenstein | Higher-for-longer interest rates now allow credit instruments to deliver equity-type returns (high single… |
| 2023-10-03 | Marko PapicGeopolitical macro strategist | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | If yields rise uncontrollably past 5% the Fed will be forced to intervene (yield curve control or… |
| 2023-10-03 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | David Rubenstein | High yield bonds and leveraged loans now offer high single-digit returns competitive with equities while… |
| 2023-09-29 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | Structural and geopolitical inflation — supply chain fragmentation, wage pressure, fiscal stimulus… |
| 2023-09-27 | Mark MobiusEM investor — ex-Franklin Templeton | Bullish | CNBC-TV18 | JPMorgan EM bond index inclusion will force global capital into Indian sovereign and bank bonds, permanently… |
| 2023-09-14 | Harley BassmanManaging Partner, Simplify Asset Management | Bearish | Macro Voices | HY spreads in the low 400s (near long-term average) fail to compensate for an impending refinancing wall as… |
| 2023-09-06 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | David Rubenstein | Inflation has structurally re-set higher so interest rates will average above the prior decade's levels… |
| 2023-09-03 | Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago Capital | Neutral | Brent Johnson Milkshakes Pod | Investing • Finance | European sovereign yields are irrationally trading below the US risk-free rate; as capital flees to the… |
| 2023-08-29 | Ben FelixCIO, PWL Capital | Bullish | interview | Long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the true risk-free asset for long-term investors because price drops… |
| 2023-08-08 | Seth KlarmanCEO, Baupost Group | Bullish | OnefootHurdle | Coinbase convertible bonds are well-protected because the company holds approximately $5 billion in cash… |
| 2023-07-11 | Kyle BassFounder/CIO, Hayman Capital | Bearish | The Julia La Roche Show | The Fed and Treasury will crowd out bank deposits and private markets by issuing ~$900B in new Treasuries… |
| 2023-07-07 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Neutral | Bloomberg Television | Extreme volatility in the 2-year Treasury reflects a regime change and lack of a policy anchor, making the… |
| 2023-06-01 | Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR Capital | Bullish | David Rubenstein | The short-term yield curve is pricing multiple severe Fed rate cuts over the next one to two years, implying… |
| 2023-05-07 | Warren BuffettChairman, Berkshire Hathaway | Bullish | Value Investing & Finance News | With yields near 5% versus essentially zero recently, T-bills now offer meaningful return while providing the… |
| 2023-05-07 | Warren BuffettChairman, Berkshire Hathaway | Bullish | CNBC Television | Berkshire holds $128B+ in cash and T-bills earning 5%+ as dry powder for opportunistic acquisitions or… |
| 2023-05-03 | Jim ChanosShort seller — Chanos & Co (family office) | Bearish | The Meb Faber Show | With 3% inflation historically implying 5-6% 10-year yields, the current 3.6% 10-year is mispriced if the… |
| 2023-04-24 | George GammonHost, Rebel Capitalist | Bullish | Zoltan Pozsar | Anticipating a hard landing and aggressive Fed rate cuts, host parks capital in T-bills as a safe, liquid… |
| 2023-04-14 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | WEALTHTRACK | Inflation is expected to fall sharply in coming quarters, making 3–3.5% yields attractive and supporting the… |
| 2023-03-28 | Chris BloomstranPresident & CIO, Semper Augustus Investments | Bullish | The Acquirers Podcast | T-bills carry zero credit risk while broker-swept bank deposits carry meaningful systemic risk after 500bps… |
| 2023-03-19 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bullish | The Heavy Wallet | In an environment of recession, financial stress, and regional bank runs, short-term treasury funds offer… |
| 2023-03-13 | Jim ChanosShort seller — Chanos & Co (family office) | Short | Market Talk with George Noble | Years of zero rates spawned business models that are de facto long-duration bonds masquerading as operating… |
| 2023-03-02 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | DoubleLine Capital | The 2-year Treasury yield made a marginal new high (~4.74% vs prior 4.72% October peak) that immediately… |
| 2023-03-01 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | China reopening and Japan's probable YCC removal both push yields higher and steepen curves globally, while… |
| 2023-02-23 | Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR Capital | Neutral | Bloomberg Television | The 60/40 portfolio has a positive but historically low expected real return of ~3% above inflation, improved… |
| 2023-01-18 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Neutral | Bloomberg Television | Current high yield prices are roughly fairly valued but yields will not compress further because the Fed will… |
| 2022-12-16 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bullish | Channel 4 News | With central banks raising rates, short-duration bonds reprice higher and offer 4-5% yields with minimal… |
| 2022-12-09 | Felix ZulaufFounder, Zulauf Consulting | Bearish | Forward Guidance | The Treasury is far behind on issuance and must replenish the Fed's general account, so a flood of new supply… |
| 2022-11-22 | David EinhornFounder, Greenlight Capital | Bearish | AlphaInvestMinds | All major developed sovereigns face compounding fiscal stress — trillion-dollar deficits at the top of the… |
| 2022-10-27 | Rob ArnottFounder & chairman, Research Affiliates | Bullish | Excess Returns | Real yields on 10-20yr TIPS (~1.7-1.8%) have been artificially pushed high by Fed rate hikes and markets… |
| 2022-09-23 | Rob ArnottFounder & chairman, Research Affiliates | Bearish | LSEG | Non-US and EM equities and bonds are priced much more reasonably than US assets whose yields are too low… |
| 2022-08-18 | Rick FerriFounder, Ferri Investment Solutions; host, Bogleheads on Investing | Bullish | Excess Returns | I bonds serve as a cash substitute within fixed income while providing a direct inflation hedge at the… |
| 2022-07-07 | Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors | Short | Capital Market Laboratories | Interest rates are in a secular normalization driven by inflationary fiscal populism that, once started, is… |
| 2022-07-07 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | 25 years of EM countries being forced to recycle trade surpluses into low-yielding Western bonds may be… |
| 2022-05-18 | Zoltan PozsarFounder, Ex Uno Plures; ex-Credit Suisse | Bearish | Young Scholars Initiative | Current inflation is structural — a shortage economy with labor dislocation and demand permanently above… |
| 2022-03-27 | Patrick MaurenbrecherMulti-family office investor, Kontora (Hamburg) | Bearish | Dennis Hong | Listed bonds offer an uninteresting risk/reward profile, and Kontora has excluded them from client portfolios… |
| 2022-02-16 | Bill MillerFounder, Miller Value Partners (retired) | Bearish | cycaversee | Real rates remain sharply negative relative to headline inflation and the Fed is shifting to active… |
| 2021-12-30 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Neutral | Louis-Vincent Gave | China property developer bonds trading at 40–50 cents on the dollar will recover once a weak USD allows the… |
| 2021-10-31 | Ray DalioFounder, Bridgewater Associates | Bearish | Larry Fink | Real interest rates are deeply negative and central banks must monetize excess spending demands, giving… |
| 2021-06-02 | Chris Cole (Artemis)Founder & CIO, Artemis Capital Management | Bearish | Chris Cole | The 60/40 portfolio is dangerously concentrated in equity-correlated risk and relies on falling interest… |
| 2021-05-28 | Harley BassmanManaging Partner, Simplify Asset Management | Bearish | Bluusun Venture Studio | Junk bonds at ~3.9-4% yield embed no risk premium — maximum gain is coupon plus return of principal while… |
| 2021-04-09 | Felix ZulaufFounder, Zulauf Consulting | Bearish | Real Vision Presents | Rising import inflation from a falling dollar plus Chinese companies shifting to profit-seeking pricing… |
| 2021-03-20 | Cathie WoodCEO & CIO, ARK Invest | Bearish | Fritz | A $1.2 trillion gap between $900B net inflows into fixed income and $350B net equity liquidation since 2018… |
| 2021-03-08 | Joel GreenblattCo-CIO, Gotham Asset Management | Bearish | The Intrinsic Value Podcast | Junk bonds yielding 4% for the first time do not adequately compensate for default risk and bad outcomes over… |
| 2021-03-01 | Felix ZulaufFounder, Zulauf Consulting | Short | DoubleLine Capital | Unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus combined with rising Asian export prices and strengthening Asian… |
| 2021-03-01 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Short | Felix Zulauf | Multiple indicators — copper/gold ratio pointing to 2.25% and 7-year nominal GDP moving average pointing to… |
| 2020-12-05 | Seth KlarmanCEO, Baupost Group | Bullish | Investing_Gurus | Bonds of captive auto finance companies bought at ~50 cents on the dollar remain worth 90+ cents even if… |
| 2020-08-01 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | Danielle DiMartino Booth | The Fed has artificially set junk bond prices above what investors will recover after working through the… |
| 2020-03-12 | Chris Cole (Artemis)Founder & CIO, Artemis Capital Management | Bearish | Chris Cole | The 60/40 (or 70/20 equity-bond) portfolio is dangerously concentrated in secular-growth assets; 90% of its… |
| 2020-03-05 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Neutral | CNBC Television | At ~90 basis points, even a bull-case rally to zero rates produces under a 10% one-year return, making cash a… |
| 2019-11-03 | Stanley DruckenmillerChairman/CEO, Duquesne Family Office | Short | Paul Tudor Jones | Trump/Ryan fiscal package (corporate tax cuts, full business write-offs, deregulation) could push nominal GDP… |
| 2019-10-04 | Unknown | Bullish | CNBC Fast Money Final Trade | 1-2-3 year bonds on the short end of the yield curve offer approximately 2% yield, making them an attractive… |
| 2019-08-23 | Keith McculloughCEO & Founder, Hedgeye Risk Management | Bullish | Raoul Pal | Quad 4 (growth and inflation slowing simultaneously) combined with the largest recorded net-short futures… |
| 2019-06-05 | Stanley DruckenmillerChairman/CEO, Duquesne Family Office | Bullish | Peppi Carpinelli | Fed likely to cut 50-100bp within a year as economy shows deteriorating corporate profits, trade-war… |
| 2019-03-18 | Marc LasryCEO, Avenue Capital Group | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Unsecured bonds due 2021 trading at 75 cents on a company with $2B market cap and senior debt maturing 2023… |
| 2019-01-28 | Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago Capital | Bullish | The Jay Martin Show | European yields sit irrationally below the US risk-free rate and will face extreme upward pressure as capital… |
| 2018-11-15 | Seth KlarmanCEO, Baupost Group | Bullish | Ivey Business School | Bonds of captive auto lenders purchased near 50 cents on the dollar remain worth 90+ cents even if default… |
| 2018-11-13 | Stanley DruckenmillerChairman/CEO, Duquesne Family Office | Bearish | Real Vision | JGB yields appear to be breaking out as the BOJ concedes its policy is destroying bank profitability, and… |
| 2018-10-31 | Marc LasryCEO, Avenue Capital Group | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Power companies with debt that must be restructured are pricing in excess distress, creating buying… |
| 2018-10-31 | Seth KlarmanCEO, Baupost Group | Bullish | Ivey Business School | Force-selling by margin-called funds, mandated sellers (investment-grade-only charters), and upcoming LBO… |
| 2018-10-29 | Carl IcahnActivist investor — Icahn Enterprises | Short | Investing Principle | Junk bond credit spreads at only ~300bps above Treasuries are dangerously compressed just as rates are set to… |
| 2018-07-27 | Bill MillerFounder, Miller Value Partners (retired) | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | The 35-year bond bull market ended in 2016 and bonds are in a bear market; a strengthening economy and rising… |
| 2018-06-21 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Bearish | Anric Blatt | Real 10-year rates at roughly -30 to -40bps versus a 250-year historical norm of +200bps are unsustainable at… |
| 2018-04-13 | Bill NygrenPortfolio manager, Oakmark Funds | Bullish | CNBC | Dividend yields are nearly as high as bond yields while corporate earnings and dividends are growing, making… |
| 2018-02-06 | Chris Cole (Artemis)Founder & CIO, Artemis Capital Management | Bearish | Chris Cole | Stocks and bonds have been anti-correlated only 11% of the time across 120 years of history and have declined… |
| 2017-09-01 | Chris Cole (Artemis)Founder & CIO, Artemis Capital Management | Bearish | Chris Cole | Bond yields at lowest levels in human civilization combined with sovereign debt at record highs limits… |
| 2016-06-20 | Raoul PalCo-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PM | Bullish | Real Vision | Bond yields will fall due to converging tailwinds: secular demographic deflation, central banks as the… |
| 2016-05-24 | Carl IcahnActivist investor — Icahn Enterprises | Bearish | Trend of Earnings | Bank buffer buyers have collapsed from ~50% to 4-5% of the high yield market due to the Volcker Rule, while… |
| 2015-11-11 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | Oaktree | High yield bonds at ~5% yields offer asymmetric downside — survivable credits pay a known coupon with… |
| 2015-11-03 | Carl IcahnActivist investor — Icahn Enterprises | Bearish | New York Times Events | High-yield and junk bonds have inflated into a bubble supported by artificially low rates, and with the Fed… |
| 2015-01-23 | Raoul PalCo-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PM | Bullish | Real Vision Presents | Dollar strength is deeply deflationary via commodity pricing, pushing US CPI negative and driving a bond… |
| 2013-04-08 | Kyle BassFounder/CIO, Hayman Capital | Bearish | GGRPrivate | Japan is past the zone of insolvency — spending twice tax revenue for five consecutive years, demographics… |
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The options tape
Notable options days
Sessions in the last 120 where IEF’s settled options volume ran ≥ 2× its trailing 20-session baseline, or delta-dollar flow ran ≥ 2.5× — 18 of 120 sessions qualified.
The qualifying dates are the free record. Close, flow, call/LEAPS mix and the 20-session outcome — for every session below — are member content.
| Date | Close | RVOL | Δ$ flow ($M) | Call % | LEAPS % | +20 sess. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | ||||||
| 2026-09-23 | ||||||
| 2026-09-16 | ||||||
| 2026-09-14 | ||||||
| 2026-09-10 | ||||||
| 2026-09-03 | ||||||
| 2026-09-01 | ||||||
| 2026-08-31 | ||||||
| 2026-08-25 | ||||||
| 2026-08-21 | ||||||
| 2026-08-18 | ||||||
| 2026-08-12 | ||||||
| 2026-08-03 | ||||||
| 2026-07-27 | ||||||
| 2026-07-22 | ||||||
| 2026-06-11 | ||||||
| 2026-05-19 | ||||||
| 2026-05-18 |
+20 sess. = raw price change over the following 20
sessions — not market-adjusted; the tape tells you where to look,
not what happens next.
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The Wheel · put-selling
IEF on the Wheel
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