Stocks / ETF
IEFETF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
$91.261d +0.5%5d +0.1%settled close · 2026-09-17
β 0.2152w $91–96Shares 509.2MNasdaq since 2002
The tape, with the calls on it
Who said what, and what IEF did next
Every dot is a day someone on the record made a call. Hover one to see who. We are not scoring them — the point is that you can see it and judge for yourself.
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Who’s talking about IEF
134 long24 neutral130 shortlatest 2026-09-11
| Date | Voice | Stance | Venue | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Cameron DawsonCIO, NewEdge Wealth | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | The 1981–2020 secular bond bull market is dead and yields are now in a clear secular uptrend, with… |
| 2026-09-10 | Omar Aguilar | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Intermediate bond yields are at their most attractive entry point in roughly 15 years, offering compelling… |
| 2026-09-10 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | AI sector IG spreads have already widened from 50 to 125bps and HY from 180 to 325bps while the broader… |
| 2026-09-09 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | Chora Media | Fundamental supply/demand imbalance — 6% GDP deficit, hyperscalers borrowing $300-800B, plus less reliable… |
| 2026-09-07 | Rachana Mehta | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | RMB corporate bonds hedged to USD yield ~5% with dramatically lower US-rate-driven volatility than equivalent… |
| 2026-09-07 | Rajeev De Mello | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | US political pressure to cap Treasury yields makes owning US bonds structurally unattractive, favouring… |
| 2026-09-04 | Julia Coronado | Bearish | Bloomberg Open Interest | Solid labor market with unemployment near full employment combined with broadening inflation across sectors… |
| 2026-09-04 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | OECD governments will inflate their way out of ballooning debt, producing persistently negative real returns… |
| 2026-09-03 | Alli Mccartney | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | Fed's next rate move is lower not higher (though not expected until 2027), so buying short-duration bonds now… |
| 2026-09-02 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | David Lin | Short-dated paper offers nearly 3% real yield and attractive cash flow with minimal duration risk, serving as… |
Show all 288 mentions
| Date | Voice | Stance | Venue | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Aswath DamodaranProfessor of finance, NYU Stern | Bullish | Wealth Building Blueprint – Vladyslav Grabarskyy | At 5-5.5% yield, Treasuries provide reliable near-risk-free cash flows and raise the required return hurdle… |
| 2026-08-31 | Marc FaberEditor, Gloom Boom & Doom Report | Bearish | Wealthion | Persistent inflationary pressures — including energy and food — are structural and make lower interest rates… |
| 2026-08-31 | Gregory Daco | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Today's inflation is supply-side — driven by tariffs, elevated oil prices, and AI investment costs — none of… |
| 2026-08-26 | Ben CarlsonDirector of institutional AM, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson) | The US will not face a sovereign debt crisis because it has the world's largest economy, the reserve… |
| 2026-08-24 | Nick ColasCo-Founder, DataTrek Research | Bearish | The Compound | Four simultaneous forces keep real yields elevated and climbing — Fed QE unwind complete, higher neutral rate… |
| 2026-08-21 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Short | Rob Wallace | Bitcoin News | Nominal GDP growth running 6-8% annualised (fastest since early 1980s) must eventually be priced into the… |
| 2026-08-20 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Wealthion | The front end of the yield curve is still pricing at least one more Fed hike that Rosenberg believes will… |
| 2026-08-19 | Ben CarlsonDirector of institutional AM, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | Sticky inflation anchoring the US in a 3%-world makes the current 3% real TIPS yield historically exceptional… |
| 2026-08-18 | David WooIndependent macro strategist (ex-BofA) | Bullish | Wealthion | Five-year yields are too high given that the Fed is unlikely to hike with growth slowing and inflation… |
| 2026-08-18 | Gabriela Santos | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | Long-end yield volatility is being driven by a term premium reset from surging government and corporate debt… |
| 2026-08-17 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Wealthion | At current yields around 4.5%, bonds offer attractive fixed income compensation relative to recent history |
| 2026-08-13 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Macro Voices | Nominal GDP growth running at 6–8% driven by fiscal spending, the AI boom, and deglobalization capex… |
| 2026-08-13 | Raoul PalCo-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PM | Bullish | Raoul Pal The Journey Man | Liquid, homogeneous fixed-income and yield products are a natural fit for tokenization — faster settlement… |
| 2026-08-11 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | The Julia La Roche Show | Nominal GDP running 7–8% is structurally incompatible with 10-year yields at 4.7%; Treasury front-end… |
| 2026-08-10 | Jim Caron | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Passive fixed income has returned near zero over five years, now positively correlates with equity drawdowns… |
| 2026-08-09 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Bearish | The Gwart Show | The Bitcoin treasury company fad has peaked; smaller entrants lack the liquidity network effects and… |
| 2026-08-08 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bullish | LifeWorthLiving | Rule #1 is diversification; holding bonds providing ~5% yield is a fixed-income counterweight when equities… |
| 2026-08-04 | Jesse FelderAuthor, The Felder Report | Bullish | Wealthion | Meaningfully tightening financial conditions — the only path to killing inflation — requires stocks and long… |
| 2026-08-03 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | DoubleLine Capital | The riskiest borrowers have migrated out of public high yield into private credit and bank loans, leaving the… |
| 2026-08-01 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Neutral | The Bullion Brief | With equity valuations at extreme CAPE multiples and multiple simultaneous tail risks (Japanese bonds, UK… |
| 2026-07-28 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | Japanese GPIF repatriation under Ministry of Finance direction will force massive selling of US Treasuries… |
| 2026-07-28 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | Brazil's central bank fought inflation aggressively (having lived through 1990s hyperinflation) producing… |
| 2026-07-27 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bullish | Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC) | As the liquidity cycle peaks and begins contracting, bonds progressively replace equities and commodities… |
| 2026-07-27 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | Inflation will undershoot consensus expectations because the oil shock has already peaked and the underlying… |
| 2026-07-24 | Steven FeldmanCo-Founder & CEO, GBI | Bearish | Wealthion | Inflation is the US government's only realistic path out of a $40T debt load, which makes fixed-rate bonds a… |
| 2026-07-23 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Short | Macro Voices | Japan, Germany, Korea, UK, and US—historically creditor nations—are simultaneously turning borrowers for… |
| 2026-07-13 | Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth Management | Bearish | Wealthion | Rates are structurally biased higher due to Warsh's inflation mandate, Fed balance sheet reduction, and the… |
| 2026-07-11 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Economy running hot with ~7% deficit-to-GDP government spending and war-driven inflation gives the Fed no… |
| 2026-07-10 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | Structural bond bear market driven by governments running 4-7% fiscal deficits at full employment, persistent… |
| 2026-07-10 | Peter BoockvarCIO, OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | A clear global bond bear market is underway as JGB yields hit 29-year highs and French OAT and UK gilt yields… |
| 2026-07-07 | Camilla Asaroglu | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Short-term yields have risen to attractive levels and money market funds are at all-time highs; the recent… |
| 2026-07-07 | Adrian ZuercherHead of Global Asset Allocation, UBS Global Wealth Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Too much rate-hike risk is priced in globally; the Fed is unlikely to hike and will eventually cut, while… |
| 2026-07-07 | Wei LiGlobal Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock Investment Institute | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | In a higher-for-longer rate environment EMD offers attractive income with better risk-adjusted… |
| 2026-07-06 | Russ BrownbackDeputy CIO & Head of Global Macro, BlackRock | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | EM debt offers great opportunities because countries are now trading on idiosyncratic fundamentals rather… |
| 2026-07-02 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Neutral | Bloomberg Television | Euro-area growth is tangibly slowing while markets have significant rate hikes priced in, making European… |
| 2026-06-30 | Chad MorganlanderPM, Washington Crossing Advisors | Bearish | Yahoo Finance | HY credit spreads are at historically tight levels comparable to 2007 and 1999, reflecting QE-driven… |
| 2026-06-30 | Danielle Dimartino BoothCEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research | Bullish | Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® | Market expectations for a 2026 rate hike are wrong — imminent negative month-over-month CPI prints and… |
| 2026-06-29 | Joe Terranova (Virtus)Chief market strategist, Virtus | Bullish | CNBC Halftime Final Trades | Oil falling back to $70 will flow through to CPI prints, giving the Fed no justification to hike; yields have… |
| 2026-06-29 | Bob SheehanFounder & CIO, Lighthouse Macro | Short | Forward Guidance | Supply overhang, returning term premium, declining foreign buyer participation, and the fiscal doom loop… |
| 2026-06-26 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bullish | David Lin | TIPS currently yield over 2% real, which historically is difficult to beat in real terms from financial… |
| 2026-06-25 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bullish | The Diary Of A CEO | With ~4.5-5% yields available on US government and high-grade corporate bonds, fixed income offers a… |
| 2026-06-23 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bearish | Tom Lee | The 2-year Treasury yield leads Fed funds by ~60bps (two hikes' worth), signaling the Fed must tighten and… |
| 2026-06-22 | George BoryFixed income strategist, Allspring | Bullish | CNBC Halftime Final Trades | Fed will remain on hold as data unfolds and oil/Iran uncertainty clears, making elevated yields at the 5-year… |
| 2026-06-18 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Neutral | DoubleLine Capital | EM local currency bonds have been the best-performing asset class year-to-date for dollar-based investors… |
| 2026-06-16 | Dror PolegAuthor and economic commentator | Bullish | Wealthion | Equity upside/downside ratio has deteriorated after a multi-year run, making a defensive >50% treasury… |
| 2026-06-15 | Dan IvascynGroup CIO, PIMCO | Bearish | The Compound | AI disruption will produce a steady stream of credit losses in traditional services sectors — independent of… |
| 2026-06-11 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bearish | Wealthion | Hedge funds are exploiting a ~10–20bps mispricing between Treasury futures and off-the-run issues at 50:1… |
| 2026-06-11 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Global bond yields are breaking out in every major market except China as the Iran war drives oil and… |
| 2026-06-03 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Neutral | Wealthion | Carry on 5-year bonds at current yield levels is sufficient to offset likely yield increases, providing… |
| 2026-06-02 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Neutral | Julia La Roche Show | At current yields, mid-duration (2-5yr) treasuries carry low enough duration risk that a rate rise would not… |
| 2026-06-01 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bullish | SALT | Short-duration TIPS reprice for inflation and avoid the duration risk that kills nominal long bonds in a… |
| 2026-05-31 | Ben FelixCIO, PWL Capital | Neutral | interview | Publicly-traded high-yield bond ETFs deliver comparable total returns to private credit funds while offering… |
| 2026-05-30 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | TIPS are pricing only 2-3% inflation while Whalen expects double-digit inflation driven by commodity… |
| 2026-05-28 | George Goncalves (MUFG)Bond market strategist | Bullish | Wealthion | Two-year Treasuries offer attractive yield competitive with money markets and will outperform long-duration… |
| 2026-05-28 | Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices)Co-host, MacroVoices & Market Huddle | Bearish | Macro Voices | Unresolved Strait of Hormuz closure keeps energy-driven inflation elevated, preventing yields from declining… |
| 2026-05-28 | Gabriela Santos | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | The front end of the US yield curve is pricing in a full Fed rate hike over the next 12 months, which is… |
| 2026-05-27 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bullish | Wealthion | Passive investing mechanics have mechanically suppressed demand for long-duration Treasuries—not fundamental… |
| 2026-05-25 | Manoj PradhanFounder, Talking Heads Macro | Bearish | Hidden Forces | Aging demographics create structural upward pressure on real rates through two persistent channels—rising… |
| 2026-05-22 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bullish | Wealthion | TIPS are paying 2.5–3% real yield on top of current 3.8% inflation, offering total returns of ~6%+ with… |
| 2026-05-21 | Daniel LacalleChief Economist & CIO, Tressis | Bearish | Wealthion | Governments continue issuing excess currency to fund structural deficits, keeping inflation persistent, which… |
| 2026-05-20 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bullish | Wealthion | All-in yields on investment grade bonds near 5% offer an acceptable risk-adjusted return with principal… |
| 2026-05-19 | George NobleFormer Fidelity & hedge fund manager | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Brazil offers 14% nominal yields, 10% real rates, and an undervalued appreciating currency versus US bonds… |
| 2026-05-19 | Ben FelixCIO, PWL Capital | Bearish | BiggerPockets Money and Ben Felix | Nominal bonds carry high real-return risk over very long horizons because they are not inflation-adjusted… |
| 2026-05-19 | David De Boltz | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | HPC-sector high-yield bonds have returned 10% YTD versus 2% for the broad HY index — 800bps of outperformance… |
| 2026-05-17 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bullish | Michael Green | At a 5% nominal yield, 30-year Treasuries allow retirees to live entirely off coupon income without touching… |
| 2026-05-14 | Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices)Co-host, MacroVoices & Market Huddle | Bearish | Macro Voices | 10-year yields have broken out to multi-month highs driven by oil-price inflation fears, trend is higher… |
| 2026-05-14 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Neutral | DoubleLine Capital | Poor-quality leveraged borrowers have migrated out of the public high yield market and into private credit… |
| 2026-05-07 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Neutral | Bloomberg Podcasts | Private credit stress has not yet spilled into public high yield as theorized by private credit bulls, with… |
| 2026-05-05 | Purnima Puri | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | Strong corporate earnings, low default rates outside AI-disrupted software/IT sectors, and elevated base… |
| 2026-04-30 | Rob ArnottFounder & chairman, Research Affiliates | Bearish | Money Maze Podcast | EM bond yield spreads remain more attractive than US high yield, offering a rich opportunity set that is… |
| 2026-04-30 | Ben FelixCIO, PWL Capital | Bearish | The Diary Of A CEO and Ben Felix | Bonds are riskier than conventionally believed for long-term investors because high inflation periods… |
| 2026-04-28 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Bearish | Invest Like The Best | The US is clearly in a sovereign debt bubble, and a significant equity market mean-reversion would blow out… |
| 2026-04-28 | Steven WietingChief investment strategist, Citi Wealth | Bullish | CNBC Closing Bell Overtime | AI CapEx boom plus a Hormuz supply shock together push toward higher nominal growth skewed toward inflation… |
| 2026-04-27 | John SheehanPartner & Portfolio Manager, Osterweis Capital Management | Bullish | Odd Lots | The HY market has dramatically improved in quality as riskier credits migrated to private credit and… |
| 2026-04-20 | David WooIndependent macro strategist (ex-BofA) | Short | interview | A war-driven oil price shock will push long-end bond yields higher even as the Fed refuses to hike, as… |
| 2026-04-18 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | With inflation running well above T-bill yields and no Fed cuts expected, holders are locking in a guaranteed… |
| 2026-04-14 | Bill AckmanCEO, Pershing Square | Bullish | Pershing Square | A planned fund that parks capital in short-term US Treasuries whose interest income funds asymmetric macro… |
| 2026-04-09 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bearish | Macro Voices | The US has failed to hit its 2% inflation target for five consecutive years and is now structurally in a ~3%… |
| 2026-03-31 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | interview | Private credit defaults will cascade into significant repricing of single-B and below; current HY spreads at… |
| 2026-03-18 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | Google issuing 100-year bonds at 5.8% exemplifies peak market optimism and credulousness, making such… |
| 2026-03-12 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bearish | Macro Voices | Gasoline up 18% in 9 days will push March CPI to 6-7% annualized and keep year-over-year inflation above 3%… |
| 2026-03-10 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Goldfinger Capital | JGBs already traded like an emerging-market asset in H2 last year with yields rising while the yen fell… |
| 2026-03-10 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bullish | Michael Green | Passive index mechanics create a structural ~40% underweight in longer-duration bonds as falling prices… |
| 2026-03-09 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | CNBC Television | European central banks with a single mandate will be forced to hike rates in response to the oil-driven… |
| 2026-03-06 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Neutral | Fox Business | With the economy performing well and the Fed unlikely to cut rates, a 4–4.5% 10-year yield is a fair, healthy… |
| 2026-03-05 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® | Real rates are attractive and inflation expectations are set to drop measurably by year-end, making… |
| 2026-03-02 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Neutral | CNBC Television | Stagflationary pressure from the Iran conflict combined with hot inflation prints (ISM prices paid spike… |
| 2026-03-02 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Stable Latin American countries offer real economy exposure with currency upside as dollar weakens, and… |
| 2026-02-28 | Stanley DruckenmillerChairman/CEO, Duquesne Family Office | Bearish | Druckenmiller Official | Default rates are climbing and credit spreads are widening as companies that borrowed cheaply now face… |
| 2026-02-27 | Aswath DamodaranProfessor of finance, NYU Stern | Bearish | Meb Faber | Companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets misuse the stabilizing function of cash, turning a risk… |
| 2026-02-11 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Wise Metals Investor | China has been unwinding Treasury holdings since 2013 and is now openly directing banks to reduce exposure… |
| 2026-02-09 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bullish | CNBC Television | AI-driven productivity gains raise the economy's non-inflationary speed limit, reducing inflation pressure… |
| 2026-02-06 | Jim ChanosShort seller — Chanos & Co (family office) | Short | RiskReversal Media | Micro Strategy and similar crypto treasury companies traded at massive premiums to their underlying Bitcoin… |
| 2026-01-29 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Short | interview | Japanese 40-year yield spiked 25 bps in a day, signaling a global bond market regime shift where sovereign… |
| 2026-01-20 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Jeffrey Gundlach | Fed is far behind the curve with unemployment heading to 6% and core inflation ex-tariffs near 2.2% and… |
| 2026-01-20 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Natalie Brunell | China is deliberately weaponizing trade leverage against Japan — strengthening the yuan, restricting dual-use… |
| 2026-01-14 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Joe Burnett | JGBs are exhibiting EM-like dynamics where rising yields and a weakening yen move together, signaling the… |
| 2026-01-11 | Grant WilliamsFinancial writer & podcast host | Bearish | Grant Williams Podcast | After the US confiscated Russia's dollar reserves via SWIFT, sovereign actors can no longer trust Treasuries… |
| 2026-01-09 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Bullish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Post-jobs-report cheapening in the front-to-belly of the curve offers a better entry while that segment most… |
| 2026-01-08 | Ray DalioFounder, Bridgewater Associates | Bullish | interview | As governments monetize debt and devalue currencies, TIPS guarantee a real return of roughly 2% above… |
| 2025-12-31 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bearish | LifeWorthLiving | Tariff-induced margin squeeze reduces corporate liquidity, while deteriorating capital account reduces the $5… |
| 2025-12-15 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bullish | Louis-Vincent Gave | Trump's Monroe Doctrine pivot — underwriting Argentina, pressuring Venezuela, redirecting strategic focus to… |
| 2025-12-10 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | DoubleLine Capital | The belly of the Treasury curve (2-7yr) is the performance driver — a leveraged 2-year Treasury has blown… |
| 2025-12-02 | Grant WilliamsFinancial writer & podcast host | Bearish | Grant Williams Podcast | Foreign central bank demand for Treasuries peaked around 2014 and has been declining ever since, replaced by… |
| 2025-11-30 | Bill AckmanCEO, Pershing Square | Bullish | Unreleased Podcast | T-bills currently yield over 4%, making the opportunity cost of holding cash low while preserving optionality… |
| 2025-11-28 | Russell NapierMarket strategist & financial historian | Bearish | Prime Quadrant | As surplus countries repatriate capital home to fund indigenous industrial policy and buy their own… |
| 2025-11-18 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Bullish | interview | At sub-1.5× MNAV the leading Bitcoin treasury names have shed the summer excess and sit in a reasonable… |
| 2025-11-17 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Neutral | interview | EM fixed income is the top-performing fixed income sector year-to-date for dollar-based investors and… |
| 2025-11-03 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | interview | Dollar weakness translates directly into currency gains on unhedged EM local-currency exposure, stacking on… |
| 2025-10-29 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | CNBC Television | The Fed has cut 150bps but the 2-year is only down 5bps while the 10-year is up since September 2024 cuts… |
| 2025-10-29 | Scott MelkerHost, The Wolf of All Streets | Bullish | Wealthion | Solana and Ethereum treasury companies can structurally beat their underlying assets by 10–20% annually by… |
| 2025-10-23 | Brett RentmeesterCIO, Jaggi Family Office | Bearish | Wealthion | Junk-bond spreads over Treasuries are near historical lows (~2–2.5%), so investors are not being compensated… |
| 2025-10-22 | Jim ChanosShort seller — Chanos & Co (family office) | Short | Bloomberg Podcasts | Strategy 'wannabe' companies that adopted Bitcoin treasury models have already collapsed below 1.0x NAV… |
| 2025-10-16 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bullish | CNBC Television | Concerns about credit quality, regional banks, and alternative asset managers are driving financial stability… |
| 2025-10-14 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bullish | CNBC Television | There is $4.1 trillion sitting in digital wallets globally and tokenizing traditional assets like ETFs allows… |
| 2025-10-14 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Short | Bloomberg Podcasts | Fiscal deficits of 6% of GDP, a politically driven push to cut Fed funds to 2.25–2.5%, and eventual inflation… |
| 2025-10-11 | Patrick BoyleFinance professor; ex-hedge fund manager | Bearish | interview | Bonds rallied on US ESF intervention and Bessent's support announcement, but the bailout lacks enforceable… |
| 2025-10-08 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Wealthion | Monetary inflation structurally devalues paper money and nominal bonds; real returns on government bonds will… |
| 2025-09-26 | Steve RomickPortfolio Manager, FPA Crescent Fund, First Pacific Advisors | Bearish | The Compound | HY spreads at 300bps are 200bps tighter than the 500bps historical average, yields at 7.1% are ~100bps below… |
| 2025-09-23 | Marco SantoriCEO, Solmate | Bullish | Mike Novogratz | Digital asset treasury companies will structurally replace the traditional foundation model for stewarding… |
| 2025-09-19 | Bill AckmanCEO, Pershing Square | Short | PermCap Investment Office | MBIA's AAA rating masked near-insolvency because its thin capital base was guaranteeing subprime mortgages… |
| 2025-09-11 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | With fiscal deficits running at 6%+ annually, rate cuts poised to reignite inflation, and the crowding-out of… |
| 2025-09-09 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Bullish | CNBC Television | Real rates out to 5 years are genuinely attractive with inflation running ~3% and nominal yields still near… |
| 2025-09-05 | Emily Wood | Neutral | Wealthion | Rate-cut uncertainty keeps the long end elevated while the Fed only controls the short end, so floating rate… |
| 2025-09-03 | Ben KizemchukPortfolio Manager, Wellington-Altus Private Counsel | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Financial repression keeps real rates suppressed while inflation anchors around 3.5%, making government bonds… |
| 2025-09-01 | Marvin BarthFounder, Thematic Markets | Bearish | Hidden Forces | Localization forces a rebuild of domestic capital stock, permanently raising investment demand while… |
| 2025-08-27 | Alfonso PeccatielloFounder, The Macro Compass | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Political capture of the FOMC pushes Fed funds toward neutral while nominal growth stays above neutral due to… |
| 2025-08-25 | Dave CollumProfessor of Chemistry, Cornell University | Neutral | Wealthion | Capital preservation in T-bills out to 2 years provides liquidity and optionality to deploy into assets after… |
| 2025-08-21 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Credit offers contractual returns approaching 6%+ with defensive downside protection versus elevated equity… |
| 2025-08-21 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Long-end yields move higher over the next three weeks regardless of Jackson Hole outcome due to structural… |
| 2025-08-20 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Credit offers a contractual promised return in the high single digits that is highly likely to deliver… |
| 2025-08-16 | Aswath DamodaranProfessor of finance, NYU Stern | Neutral | Excess Returns | Bond income generates taxable cash flows that erode after-tax returns, making bonds inferior to equities for… |
| 2025-08-13 | Seth GinnsCIO, Franklin Crypto | Bullish | Wealthion | DATs are in the early seeding phase of becoming permanent-capital vehicles that bridge traditional finance… |
| 2025-08-12 | Mike NovogratzFounder/CEO, Galaxy Digital | Bearish | Natalie Brunell | While MicroStrategy succeeded by building a unique identity beyond just Bitcoin exposure, the flood of… |
| 2025-08-10 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Bearish | Forward Guidance | A tariff reversal forces ~$100B in reimbursements plus eliminates ~$400B in annual revenue, blowing out the… |
| 2025-08-07 | Edward ChancellorColumnist, Reuters Breakingviews | Bearish | Hidden Forces | Government bonds are mislabeled as risk-free assets; at the end of the debt supercycle they are backed by… |
| 2025-08-04 | Mark MobiusEM investor — ex-Franklin Templeton | Bullish | interview | Equity valuations are stretched globally and a correction is likely, while US Treasuries offer a safe 4-5%… |
| 2025-07-30 | Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth | Bearish | The Compound | 98 companies announcing $43B+ in capital raises purely to buy Bitcoin constitutes leveraged dumb-money frenzy… |
| 2025-07-23 | Scott BessentSecretary of the Treasury, U.S. Department of the Treasury | Bullish | All-In Podcast | GENIUS Act stablecoin legislation requires backing in sub-90-day instruments, which Bessent believes will… |
| 2025-07-21 | Brett RentmeesterCIO, Jaggi Family Office | Bearish | Wealthion | With global debt levels at extremes and governments structurally printing money, bonds face a potential… |
| 2025-07-07 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Treasury vehicles are structurally more attractive than ETFs over time because they offer leveraged… |
| 2025-07-02 | Marko PapicGeopolitical macro strategist | Bullish | Wealthion | The Big Beautiful Bill stabilizes rather than expands the deficit, tariffs will stay modest enough to collect… |
| 2025-06-30 | Rizzo | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Bitcoin treasury companies exploit structural market asymmetries in every capital market globally —… |
| 2025-06-27 | Andy SchwartzCo-Founder & Managing Partner, Bleakley Financial Group | Bearish | Wealthion | Even if the Fed cuts short rates, long-end yields may stay elevated or rise because bond market investors… |
| 2025-06-27 | Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Dearth of new high yield issuance forces managers to reinvest income right back into HY, creating a… |
| 2025-06-17 | Christopher PerkinsHead of Franklin Crypto, Franklin Templeton | Bullish | Wealthion | Layer-one blockchains (ETH, SOL) emit native yields that can be structured into fixed income and structured… |
| 2025-06-10 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Wealthion | 5% is the new structural normal for 10-year yields — the mortgage-backed securities market implies fair value… |
| 2025-06-06 | Kevin GrimesCEO & CIO, Grimes & Company | Bullish | Wealthion | With the 10-year Treasury near 4.5%, bonds now offer a yield competitive with S&P 500 earnings yield at far… |
| 2025-06-04 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bullish | Forward Guidance | At 5% yields, bonds offer a '5% return with less volatility' versus equities' expected ~6% with far greater… |
| 2025-06-02 | Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth Management | Bearish | Wealthion | Long-dated bonds are highly sensitive to interest rate moves and heading into a recession with potentially… |
| 2025-05-23 | Kevin GrimesCEO & CIO, Grimes & Company | Neutral | Wealthion | Credit spreads remain tight (no recession priced), high yield has delivered lower volatility than Treasuries… |
| 2025-05-21 | Kevin MuirIndependent trader — The Macro Tourist | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Expanding US fiscal deficits, foreign capital repatriation reducing overseas demand, and record-long… |
| 2025-05-19 | Jim RogersChairman, Rogers Holdings | Bearish | Wealthion | Inflation has not ended globally and massive US debt burdens will force long-term interest rates materially… |
| 2025-05-16 | Alexis MillerDirector of Investment Research, Bleakley Financial Group | Bullish | Wealthion | High-yield spreads have compressed from ~150bps to near-historic-tight levels, meaning investors are not… |
| 2025-05-14 | Tavi CostaPartner, Crescat Capital | Bullish | Wealthion | Fed stubbornness while the economy slows or contracts will force a sharp drop in the 2-year yield toward a… |
| 2025-05-09 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Fed cuts are delayed but not eliminated, pushing expectations further out the curve; 2-year has… |
| 2025-04-25 | Danny DayanCIO, DWD Partners | Short | Forward Guidance | Dollar doom loop and sticky inflation mean bond market is pricing only the weak-growth side of stagflation… |
| 2025-04-23 | Jonathan WellumCEO & CIO, RockLinc Investment Partners | Short | Wealthion | Debt levels are enormous and rolling over, the Fed remains inflation-focused, foreign confidence in the… |
| 2025-04-18 | Josh Brown (Ritholtz)CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management | Bullish | The Compound | The 4.5–5% 10-year yield is market-mechanic and foreign-flow driven, not fundamental; inflation is heading… |
| 2025-04-16 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | Oaktree Capital | High yield bonds currently yield 7.3% contractually, which compares favorably to S&P 500 expected low… |
| 2025-04-16 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Neutral | Wealthion | Bond yields have normalized to their pre-GFC equilibrium of ~4.5% (2.25% TIPS + 2.25% inflation), so you earn… |
| 2025-04-14 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | In a decoupling, multipolar world the cost of capital rises globally, making sovereign bonds of any country… |
| 2025-04-05 | Kyle BassFounder/CIO, Hayman Capital | Bullish | TorontoWealthGroup | The Fed will be late to cut rates as GDP prints turn negative and stagflationary, forcing the front end lower… |
| 2025-04-04 | Tony GreerFounder, TG Macro | Bullish | Forward Guidance | The 10-year yield has broken the 4.10% neckline of a clear head-and-shoulders pattern that targets 3.60%… |
| 2025-04-01 | Bill MillerFounder, Miller Value Partners (retired) | Bearish | Bitcoin Magazine | Companies facing secular business decline can use excess cash to buy Bitcoin as a store of value, preserving… |
| 2025-03-28 | Jeff ParkPartner, ParaFi Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Companies holding 1,000+ BTC on their balance sheets (Block, Tesla, Metaplanet, Semler) offer Bitcoin… |
| 2025-03-15 | Kevin GrimesCEO & CIO, Grimes & Company | Neutral | Wealthion | At 4.3% yield, the 10-year is fairly valued relative to expected nominal GDP (GDP growth ~2-2.5% plus… |
| 2025-03-13 | David IbenCIO, Kopernik Global Investors | Bearish | Wealthion | With US annual interest costs near $1 trillion and deficit spending requiring eventual monetization, the bond… |
| 2025-03-13 | Paul Dietrich | Bullish | Fox Claman Countdown | As the business cycle turns toward recession, shifting equity exposure into bonds provides defensive capital… |
| 2025-03-13 | David Streski | Bullish | Fox Claman Countdown | Profit-taking from equities amid tariff-driven volatility should be redeployed into treasuries as a near-term… |
| 2025-03-11 | Margie Patel | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | HY bonds yielding ~6.5% with only ~3-year duration offer returns comparable to equity expectations for 2025… |
| 2025-03-11 | Steve Weiss (Short Hills)Founder, Short Hills Capital Partners | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Policy uncertainty and economic weakness are pushing yields down, and the Trump administration is not opposed… |
| 2025-03-08 | Chamath PalihapitiyaFounder, Social Capital | Bullish | All-In Podcast | Trump is deliberately tolerating equity market weakness to benefit Main Street, which triggers… |
| 2025-03-05 | Jeff DegraafFounder & Chairman, Renaissance Macro Research | Bullish | Forward Guidance | 10-year yields are capped at 5% with a floor near 3.50% and are currently oversold within a neutral trend… |
| 2025-03-03 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | Tariffs are proving deflationary by sapping consumer confidence, which should force the Fed off its hawkish… |
| 2025-02-24 | Callie CoxChief Market Strategist, Ritholtz Wealth Management | Bullish | The Compound | Shorter-duration treasuries offer a cleaner economic-weakness hedge than the 10-year because the long end… |
| 2025-02-13 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bullish | Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® | TIPS principal adjusts directly with realized inflation, providing explicit protection against his base case… |
| 2025-02-12 | Andreas Steno LarsenFounder & CEO, Steno Research | Bullish | Forward Guidance | The Truflation real-time inflation measure has reverted to September-October 2024 levels when the 10-year… |
| 2025-02-07 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Wealthion | T-bills yield 4–4.5% with zero duration risk and zero capital risk, making cash a genuine risk-adjusted… |
| 2025-01-31 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | With 100bps of cuts, fiscal deficits at 6%+, credit and manufacturing reflating, and bank lending… |
| 2025-01-29 | Brett RentmeesterCIO, Jaggi Family Office | Bullish | Wealthion | Rolling short-term Treasuries at current rates provides attractive liquid yield while avoiding the duration… |
| 2025-01-25 | Bob ElliottCEO & CIO, Unlimited Funds | Bullish | The Compound | TIPS are offering a 2.5% real yield with zero default risk, the most attractive level in roughly 25 years… |
| 2025-01-25 | Joe DuranCEO, Rise Growth Partners | Bullish | Wealthion | Bonds have pulled back from 4.8% to 4.4-4.5% on the 10-year, making rebalancing into fixed income attractive… |
| 2025-01-23 | Brad GerstnerFounder & CEO, Altimeter Capital | Bullish | Bg2 Pod | Inflation will not reignite, so rates are at or near a cyclical peak over the next few months. |
| 2025-01-20 | Stanley DruckenmillerChairman/CEO, Duquesne Family Office | Short | CNBC Television | Fed cut was a policy mistake that risks re-igniting animal spirits and inflation, compounded by a… |
| 2025-01-15 | Chris VermeulenFounder & Chief Investment Strategist, The Technical Traders | Bearish | Wealthion | The 40-year falling-rate cycle has ended and Fibonacci extensions on the long-term chart project a new upward… |
| 2025-01-10 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | The 2-year yield is effectively hard-capped at the fed funds rate because rate hikes are off the table, while… |
| 2025-01-09 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | Walker & Dunlop | Sticky inflation, a resilient economy largely immune to rate hikes, ongoing QT reducing Fed balance sheet… |
| 2025-01-08 | Kyle BassFounder/CIO, Hayman Capital | Bullish | American Thought Leaders - The Epoch Times | Chinese bond yields collapsing below 2% (10yr ~1.75%, 30yr sub-2%) signal China is in recession, confirming… |
| 2025-01-03 | Steven FeldmanCo-Founder & CEO, GBI | Bearish | Wealthion | Endemic inflation above 3%, $8 trillion in 2025 debt rollovers, massive corporate re-issuance, and… |
| 2024-12-28 | David CervantesFounder, Pinebrook Capital Management | Bullish | Forward Guidance | A newly hawkish Fed will extinguish the last mile of inflation more quickly, which paradoxically puts a bid… |
| 2024-12-20 | Sven CarlinFounder, Sven Carlin Research Platform | Bullish | Wealthion | 4% risk-free T-bill yield with zero downside offers clearly superior risk/reward versus S&P 500's 1% yield… |
| 2024-12-17 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | Future Proof | Fed is far behind the curve and will cut aggressively, driving short-to-medium yields sharply lower while… |
| 2024-12-11 | Henrik ZebergHead Macroeconomist, Swissblock | Bearish | Wealthion | Yields are at an inflection point and will decline strongly as the economy deteriorates, mirroring October… |
| 2024-12-10 | Jared DillianAuthor, The Daily Dirtnap | Bullish | Wealthion | Post-election bond selloff assumed Trump would blow out the deficit like his first term, but Bessent's… |
| 2024-11-30 | Ram AhluwaliaCEO, Lumida Wealth | Neutral | Wealthion | Agency MBS is mispriced relative to risk: implicitly backed by the full faith and credit of the US government… |
| 2024-11-28 | Ram AhluwaliaCEO, Lumida Wealth | Bullish | Wealthion | Agency MBS carry an implicit US government guarantee but yield approximately 250 basis points over comparable… |
| 2024-11-27 | Ron WilliamFounder & Market Strategist, RW Advisory | Bearish | Wealthion | Structural inflation resurgence driven by fiscal expansion and rolling waves of price pressure (1970s analog)… |
| 2024-11-25 | Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR Capital | Bullish | interview | Applying the same quantitative value, quality, and momentum factors used in equities to corporate credit… |
| 2024-11-22 | Meb FaberCo-founder & CIO, Cambria | Bullish | Lead-Lag Media | Corporate and other risky bond spreads over T-bills are near 30-year lows, meaning investors are not being… |
| 2024-11-15 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Wealthion | Trump ran vocally on a disinflation platform, post-election bond yields have already overshot, and when the… |
| 2024-11-12 | Bob ElliottCEO & CIO, Unlimited Funds | Bearish | Wealthion | Central banks are cutting rates into a strong economy (not a crisis), which is overly easy monetary policy… |
| 2024-11-08 | Katie StocktonTechnical strategist — Fairlead | Bullish | The Compound | Post-election spike in Treasury yields is overdone relative to the pace at which tariff and fiscal policy can… |
| 2024-11-06 | Stanley DruckenmillerChairman/CEO, Duquesne Family Office | Short | interview | Fed cut 50bp into historically loose financial conditions (gold at new highs, equities roaring, credit… |
| 2024-11-06 | Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Populism-driven fiscal spending and protectionism mirror the 1960s-70s secular inflation cycle, creating… |
| 2024-11-01 | Michael BingerPresident, Gradient Investments | Bearish | Wealthion | Inflation is likely stuck in a 2.5–4% band for three to five years rather than re-accelerating, making the… |
| 2024-10-24 | Brett RentmeesterCIO, Jaggi Family Office | Bullish | Wealthion | With interest rates potentially rising in a re-inflationary environment, duration risk is a major bond… |
| 2024-10-22 | Jared DillianAuthor, The Daily Dirtnap | Bearish | Wealthion | Massive fiscal issuance from either election winner, Fed rate cuts reigniting inflation psychology, and a… |
| 2024-10-16 | Stanley DruckenmillerChairman/CEO, Duquesne Family Office | Short | Bloomberg Television | The Fed cut 50bps into a financial melt-up with equities, gold, and crypto at record highs, fiscal expansion… |
| 2024-10-07 | Bob ElliottCEO & CIO, Unlimited Funds | Bearish | Hidden Forces | Easy monetary policy supporting nominal GDP growth structurally erodes the real value of money, making bonds… |
| 2024-10-03 | Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth Management | Bullish | Wealthion | Near-term Fed rate cuts will support shorter-duration bonds but yields will eventually tick higher as… |
| 2024-10-02 | Harley BassmanManaging Partner, Simplify Asset Management | Short | Forward Guidance | MOVE at 95-100 while 1-month realized bond vol is only 68 — a ~40% premium vs the historical 8-12% norm for… |
| 2024-10-01 | Jeremy SchwartzGlobal CIO, WisdomTree | Bullish | Wealthion | Short-duration bonds hedge portfolio against the scenario where inflation re-accelerates and forces the Fed… |
| 2024-09-21 | Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Upgrades are exceeding downgrades for the fifth consecutive month, bank lending is re-inflecting, and rate… |
| 2024-09-21 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | The Fed front-loading cuts preemptively removes accommodation and re-accelerates the economy, which pushes… |
| 2024-09-20 | Lauren Goodwin | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | High quality high yield is 2024's best-performing fixed income sector given a constructive economic… |
| 2024-09-19 | James LavishCo-Managing Partner, Bitcoin Opportunity Fund | Bearish | Forward Guidance | With money supply expanding at 7%+ annually, inflation will persistently exceed 30-year yields producing… |
| 2024-09-14 | Jared DillianAuthor, The Daily Dirtnap | Short | Wealthion | 30-year yields at ~4% are grossly mispriced because fiscal policy will be inflationary regardless of which… |
| 2024-09-13 | Richard KooChief Economist, Nomura Research Institute | Bearish | Forward Guidance | China is in a balance sheet recession where private-sector deleveraging forces money back into financial… |
| 2024-09-05 | Jonny MathewsSenior Portfolio Manager, Fortem Capital | Short | Forward Guidance | If the Fed cuts as aggressively as priced the economy will reaccelerate quickly, inflation is not fully… |
| 2024-08-28 | Emily Roland | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | HY spreads near 300bps (well below the 20-year average of 500bps) imply 12-month forward returns of only 0-1%… |
| 2024-08-28 | Marilyn Watson | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | ECB on track to cut rates again in September and roughly once a quarter thereafter, supporting Spanish… |
| 2024-08-26 | Michael Drury | Short | Forward Guidance | Nominal US GDP growth remains near 4-5% and services inflation is sticky, meaning the Fed will keep rates… |
| 2024-08-24 | Jared DillianAuthor, The Daily Dirtnap | Bearish | Wealthion | Fed funds futures are pricing ~6 total rate cuts and ~3.5 cuts by year-end across just 3 remaining 2024… |
| 2024-08-22 | Eric FinePortfolio Manager & Head of Active EM Debt, VanEck | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Ministry of Finance-owned entities like HNA and multinationals with offshore assets sold off to 60 cents on… |
| 2024-08-21 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | Oaktree Capital | The sea change from declining/ultra-low rates to a normalized higher-rate regime makes credit instruments… |
| 2024-08-21 | Jared DillianAuthor, The Daily Dirtnap | Short | Wealthion | The market has priced in roughly six Fed rate cuts while Dillian expects only one before year-end, making… |
| 2024-08-20 | Steve HankeProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University | Bullish | Wealthion | Quantity theory of money predicts continued disinflation, which will pull 10-year yields further below their… |
| 2024-08-08 | Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Global capital is pivoting from sovereign bonds to US equities for safety; yields are permanently higher as… |
| 2024-08-06 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | interview | The fixed-income market overshot during the Monday panic selloff—with the 2-year moving 20 bps… |
| 2024-08-02 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Bullish | Forward Guidance | QRA showed reduced bill issuance driven by the QT taper, cutting net supply while forward inflation… |
| 2024-08-01 | Danny DayanCIO, DWD Partners | Bearish | Forward Guidance | At 4% yield with nominal GDP running at 5.9%, the 10-year offers no term premium and is deeply mispriced… |
| 2024-07-25 | Patrick CesnaCo-host, MacroVoices | Neutral | Marko Papic | Bonds are acting as a partial safe haven and yields are drifting lower, but the outlook is not for a large… |
| 2024-05-23 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | DoubleLine Capital | Belly of the curve provides recession/slowdown hedge with price upside in a Pavlovian bond rally while… |
| 2024-04-05 | Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR Capital | Bullish | The Meb Faber Show | Real yields on long TIPS have returned to historically normal positive levels (~2%), making them reasonably… |
| 2023-12-20 | Warren BuffettChairman, Berkshire Hathaway | Bullish | OnefootHurdle | With ~$128 billion in cash equivalents, Berkshire systematically buys T-bills every Monday because yields… |
| 2023-11-28 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Bullish | Mark Moss | With broad risk assets offering poor real returns, T-bills at current yields provide a competitive risk-free… |
| 2023-10-04 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | David Rubenstein | Higher-for-longer interest rates now allow credit instruments to deliver equity-type returns (high single… |
| 2023-10-03 | Marko PapicGeopolitical macro strategist | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | If yields rise uncontrollably past 5% the Fed will be forced to intervene (yield curve control or… |
| 2023-10-03 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | David Rubenstein | High yield bonds and leveraged loans now offer high single-digit returns competitive with equities while… |
| 2023-09-27 | Mark MobiusEM investor — ex-Franklin Templeton | Bullish | CNBC-TV18 | JPMorgan EM bond index inclusion will force global capital into Indian sovereign and bank bonds, permanently… |
| 2023-09-06 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | David Rubenstein | Inflation has structurally re-set higher so interest rates will average above the prior decade's levels… |
| 2023-09-03 | Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago Capital | Neutral | Brent Johnson Milkshakes Pod | Investing • Finance | European sovereign yields are irrationally trading below the US risk-free rate; as capital flees to the… |
| 2023-08-29 | Ben FelixCIO, PWL Capital | Bullish | interview | Long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the true risk-free asset for long-term investors because price drops… |
| 2023-08-08 | Seth KlarmanCEO, Baupost Group | Bullish | OnefootHurdle | Coinbase convertible bonds are well-protected because the company holds approximately $5 billion in cash… |
| 2023-07-11 | Kyle BassFounder/CIO, Hayman Capital | Bearish | The Julia La Roche Show | The Fed and Treasury will crowd out bank deposits and private markets by issuing ~$900B in new Treasuries… |
| 2023-07-07 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Neutral | Bloomberg Television | Extreme volatility in the 2-year Treasury reflects a regime change and lack of a policy anchor, making the… |
| 2023-06-01 | Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR Capital | Bullish | David Rubenstein | The short-term yield curve is pricing multiple severe Fed rate cuts over the next one to two years, implying… |
| 2023-05-07 | Warren BuffettChairman, Berkshire Hathaway | Bullish | Value Investing & Finance News | With yields near 5% versus essentially zero recently, T-bills now offer meaningful return while providing the… |
| 2023-05-07 | Warren BuffettChairman, Berkshire Hathaway | Bullish | CNBC Television | Berkshire holds $128B+ in cash and T-bills earning 5%+ as dry powder for opportunistic acquisitions or… |
| 2023-05-03 | Jim ChanosShort seller — Chanos & Co (family office) | Bearish | The Meb Faber Show | With 3% inflation historically implying 5-6% 10-year yields, the current 3.6% 10-year is mispriced if the… |
| 2023-04-24 | George GammonHost, Rebel Capitalist | Bullish | Zoltan Pozsar | Anticipating a hard landing and aggressive Fed rate cuts, host parks capital in T-bills as a safe, liquid… |
| 2023-04-14 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | WEALTHTRACK | Inflation is expected to fall sharply in coming quarters, making 3–3.5% yields attractive and supporting the… |
| 2023-03-28 | Chris BloomstranPresident & CIO, Semper Augustus Investments | Bullish | The Acquirers Podcast | T-bills carry zero credit risk while broker-swept bank deposits carry meaningful systemic risk after 500bps… |
| 2023-03-19 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bullish | The Heavy Wallet | In an environment of recession, financial stress, and regional bank runs, short-term treasury funds offer… |
| 2023-03-13 | Jim ChanosShort seller — Chanos & Co (family office) | Short | Market Talk with George Noble | Years of zero rates spawned business models that are de facto long-duration bonds masquerading as operating… |
| 2023-03-02 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | DoubleLine Capital | The 2-year Treasury yield made a marginal new high (~4.74% vs prior 4.72% October peak) that immediately… |
| 2023-03-01 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | China reopening and Japan's probable YCC removal both push yields higher and steepen curves globally, while… |
| 2023-02-23 | Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR Capital | Neutral | Bloomberg Television | The 60/40 portfolio has a positive but historically low expected real return of ~3% above inflation, improved… |
| 2023-01-18 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Neutral | Bloomberg Television | Current high yield prices are roughly fairly valued but yields will not compress further because the Fed will… |
| 2022-12-16 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bullish | Channel 4 News | With central banks raising rates, short-duration bonds reprice higher and offer 4-5% yields with minimal… |
| 2022-10-27 | Rob ArnottFounder & chairman, Research Affiliates | Bullish | Excess Returns | Real yields on 10-20yr TIPS (~1.7-1.8%) have been artificially pushed high by Fed rate hikes and markets… |
| 2022-09-23 | Rob ArnottFounder & chairman, Research Affiliates | Bearish | LSEG | Non-US and EM equities and bonds are priced much more reasonably than US assets whose yields are too low… |
| 2022-05-18 | Zoltan PozsarFounder, Ex Uno Plures; ex-Credit Suisse | Bearish | Young Scholars Initiative | Current inflation is structural — a shortage economy with labor dislocation and demand permanently above… |
| 2021-12-30 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Neutral | Louis-Vincent Gave | China property developer bonds trading at 40–50 cents on the dollar will recover once a weak USD allows the… |
| 2021-10-31 | Ray DalioFounder, Bridgewater Associates | Bearish | Larry Fink | Real interest rates are deeply negative and central banks must monetize excess spending demands, giving… |
| 2021-06-02 | Chris Cole (Artemis)Founder & CIO, Artemis Capital Management | Bearish | Chris Cole | The 60/40 portfolio is dangerously concentrated in equity-correlated risk and relies on falling interest… |
| 2021-05-28 | Harley BassmanManaging Partner, Simplify Asset Management | Bearish | Bluusun Venture Studio | Junk bonds at ~3.9-4% yield embed no risk premium — maximum gain is coupon plus return of principal while… |
| 2020-03-12 | Chris Cole (Artemis)Founder & CIO, Artemis Capital Management | Bearish | Chris Cole | The 60/40 (or 70/20 equity-bond) portfolio is dangerously concentrated in secular-growth assets; 90% of its… |
| 2019-10-04 | Unknown | Bullish | CNBC Fast Money Final Trade | 1-2-3 year bonds on the short end of the yield curve offer approximately 2% yield, making them an attractive… |
| 2019-06-05 | Stanley DruckenmillerChairman/CEO, Duquesne Family Office | Bullish | Peppi Carpinelli | Fed likely to cut 50-100bp within a year as economy shows deteriorating corporate profits, trade-war… |
| 2018-10-31 | Marc LasryCEO, Avenue Capital Group | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Power companies with debt that must be restructured are pricing in excess distress, creating buying… |
| 2018-10-29 | Carl IcahnActivist investor — Icahn Enterprises | Short | Investing Principle | Junk bond credit spreads at only ~300bps above Treasuries are dangerously compressed just as rates are set to… |
| 2018-06-21 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Bearish | Anric Blatt | Real 10-year rates at roughly -30 to -40bps versus a 250-year historical norm of +200bps are unsustainable at… |
| 2018-02-06 | Chris Cole (Artemis)Founder & CIO, Artemis Capital Management | Bearish | Chris Cole | Stocks and bonds have been anti-correlated only 11% of the time across 120 years of history and have declined… |
| 2017-09-01 | Chris Cole (Artemis)Founder & CIO, Artemis Capital Management | Bearish | Chris Cole | Bond yields at lowest levels in human civilization combined with sovereign debt at record highs limits… |
| 2015-11-11 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | Oaktree | High yield bonds at ~5% yields offer asymmetric downside — survivable credits pay a known coupon with… |
| 2013-04-08 | Kyle BassFounder/CIO, Hayman Capital | Bearish | GGRPrivate | Japan is past the zone of insolvency — spending twice tax revenue for five consecutive years, demographics… |
8 new mentions of IEF this week are in The Brief — who, which way, and what they said, in subscribers’ inboxes every morning. Free pages update a week later.
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The options tapeThe Brief · paid
Notable options days
Sessions in the last 120 where IEF’s settled options volume ran ≥ 2× its trailing 20-session baseline, or delta-dollar flow ran ≥ 2.5× — 16 of 120 sessions qualified.
The qualifying dates are the free record. Close, flow, call/LEAPS mix and the 20-session outcome — for every session below — are Brief subscriber content.
| Date | Close | RVOL | Δ$ flow ($M) | Call % | LEAPS % | +20 sess. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | ||||||
| 2026-09-14 | ||||||
| 2026-09-10 | ||||||
| 2026-09-03 | ||||||
| 2026-09-01 | ||||||
| 2026-08-31 | ||||||
| 2026-08-25 | ||||||
| 2026-08-21 | ||||||
| 2026-08-18 | ||||||
| 2026-08-12 | ||||||
| 2026-08-03 | ||||||
| 2026-07-27 | ||||||
| 2026-07-22 | ||||||
| 2026-06-11 | ||||||
| 2026-05-19 | ||||||
| 2026-05-18 |
+20 sess. = raw price change over the following 20
sessions — not market-adjusted; the tape tells you where to look,
not what happens next.
Today’s tape on
IEF is in this morning’s Brief.
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