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Investors / stance tracking

What Rick Rieder is saying

CIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock

50 dated public stances tracked since 2024-12-13, most recently 2026-10-08. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Rick Rieder's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Rick Rieder is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

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50
tracked stances
29
themes
7
side flips
2026-10-08
last heard
Returns  90d +2.2% 59% correct · 17 calls · 180d +0.2% 62% correct · 13 calls · 1y +3.9% 71% correct · 7 calls
Points  Score 3.3 · 6/12 names green at 90 days · how it’s scored

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.

Scored calls

Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.

DateNameCall90d180d1y
2026-07-02Investment Grade Creditbearish+5.1%——
2026-07-02High Yieldbullish-2.1%——
2026-06-15IBITbullish+18.5%——
2026-05-26MUNISbullish-0.4%——
2026-05-05long SPX / long USTS / short Long Dur Treasurieshedge+2.3%+1.8%—
2026-05-05SPXbullish+5.0%+4.4%—
2026-05-05Investment Grade Creditbullish-1.2%-2.2%—
2026-01-09VOLowns+17.7%-15.0%—
2026-01-09USTSbullish+0.0%-1.0%—
2026-01-09High Yieldbearish-0.6%-1.3%—
2025-09-09USTSbullish+0.3%+1.8%-1.4%
2025-09-09SPXbullish+5.4%+4.9%+18.5%
2025-09-09GOLDbullish+15.4%+41.5%+20.7%
2025-09-09BITCOINbullish-18.7%-40.8%-29.8%
2024-12-13short Long Dur Treasuries / long USTSspread+0.3%+2.4%+2.7%
2024-12-13SPXbullish-8.4%+0.2%+14.0%
2024-12-13Private Creditbullish-1.1%+5.8%+2.4%

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

High Yield — bullish2026-07-02 → bearish2026-10-08
USTS — bearish2026-08-15 → bullish2026-09-21
Investment Grade Credit — bearish2026-07-02 → bullish2026-09-15
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2026-08-15 → bullish2026-09-15
USTS — bullish2026-01-09 → bearish2026-08-15
High Yield — bearish2026-01-09 → bullish2026-07-02
Investment Grade Credit — bullish2026-05-05 → bearish2026-07-02

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
USTS53 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral2026-09-21
SPX43 bullish / 1 neutral2026-09-15
High Yield31 bullish / 2 bearish2026-10-08
Investment Grade Credit32 bullish / 1 bearish2026-09-15
Ai Infra22 bullish2026-09-24
Long Dur Treasuries21 bullish / 1 bearish2026-09-15

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-10-08 long Investment Grade Credit / short Mortgage Reits pair Rick Rieder · video
Rotate fixed income quality upward by adding US investment grade while reducing high yield and agency MBS, capturing equivalent all-in yields with less credit risk, more convexity, and better alignment with pension and insurance buyers at current levels
“we've reduced some of our high yield and moved into investment grade credit”
BlackRock’s Rieder on Yield Curve, Federal Reserve Rate Hikes
2026-10-08 High Yield bearish Rick Rieder · video
Rollover financing risk is already materializing in the leveraged loan market as higher-for-longer rates impair refinancing capacity for leveraged borrowers
“you are seeing some rollover financing risk in parts of the leveraged loan market”
BlackRock’s Rieder on Yield Curve, Federal Reserve Rate Hikes
2026-10-08 Commercial Real Estate bearish Rick Rieder · video
Rollover financing stress in CRE is concentrated below investment grade in the capital structure, where repricing pain is greatest under sustained high real rates
“particularly going down the cap stack and things like commercial real estate”
BlackRock’s Rieder on Yield Curve, Federal Reserve Rate Hikes
2026-10-08 EUROPEAN SOVEREIGNS (FRANCE, ITALY) bearish Rick Rieder · video
Fiscal fragility in France and Italy is generating real sovereign pressure, making European government bonds less attractive than US investment grade credit at comparable yield levels
“I do worry about some pressure in some of the sovereign. We talked about France, potentially Italy”
BlackRock’s Rieder on Yield Curve, Federal Reserve Rate Hikes
2026-10-08 JGBS LONG END bullish Rick Rieder · video
Long-end JGBs offer attractive carry given cross-currency swap economics, and declining Japanese demand for US Treasuries makes domestic JGB exposure preferable for yen-based return
“I like long end JGBs as the carry I get in JGBs is pretty interesting”
BlackRock’s Rieder on Yield Curve, Federal Reserve Rate Hikes
2026-09-24 long PINK / short BROAD EQUITIES pair Rick Rieder · video
Short-duration investment-grade credit at 7.2% yield, A- rating, and under 3yr duration offers superior risk-adjusted return versus equities expected to deliver only 10-12%, making fixed income a genuine alternative to stocks for the first time in years
“if I can get a really safe 7 to 8 ... Boy, pretty good”
The man who runs $2.4 trillion at BlackRock will take a safe 7% over 12% in stocks | Sozzi Unleashed
2026-09-24 Ai Infra bullish Rick Rieder · video
Visible order backlogs in semiconductors, compute infrastructure, and memory support continued demand growth driven by AI capital expenditure even as the first derivative of AI growth begins to slow
“I like semis. I like compute. I like memory cuz I can see a backlog”
The man who runs $2.4 trillion at BlackRock will take a safe 7% over 12% in stocks | Sozzi Unleashed
2026-09-24 Mortgage Reits bearish Rick Rieder · video
Mortgage securities are highly interest-rate-sensitive and face ongoing price pressure as the Fed continues its hiking cycle, warranting a rotation out of them in favor of shorter-duration credit
“we've rotated some of our things like mortgages which are interest rate sensitive”
The man who runs $2.4 trillion at BlackRock will take a safe 7% over 12% in stocks | Sozzi Unleashed
2026-09-24 EQUITY INDEX UPSIDE CALLS owns Rick Rieder · video
Depressed equity volatility makes call options cheap, allowing a convex upside book to be built while running a smaller overall equity position as a substitute for outright equity beta
“volatility's come down ... allows me to build a more convex book. So I buy some call upside convexity”
The man who runs $2.4 trillion at BlackRock will take a safe 7% over 12% in stocks | Sozzi Unleashed
2026-09-21 USTS bullish Rick Rieder · video
Default levels remain low while the share of securities yielding above 6% is at an all-time high, making parts of the high-yield market a core tool for hitting a 7% portfolio yield target.
“the percentage of securities that get you above 6% in a good environment, meaning default levels stay low, is as high as it's ever been”
3+1 Episode 20: Rick Rieder
Said again: 2026-10-08 (Rick Rieder), 2026-10-22 (Fox Business (uncut))
2026-09-21 SECURITIZED CREDIT bullish Rick Rieder · video
Securitized product continues to offer attractive spreads relative to its credit quality, making it a durable component of the high-yield fixed income toolkit.
3+1 Episode 20: Rick Rieder
2026-09-15 Investment Grade Credit bullish CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Sub-3-year duration high-grade bonds (BlackRock's BANK ETF) yield 7.2% at A-minus average rating with low volatility, making it the best risk-adjusted spot on the curve as rate volatility punishes longer duration
“I actually like the front end, the very front end now... 7.2% yield with an A minus average rating”
Fed is going to hike rates, says BlackRock's Rick Rieder
Said again: 2026-09-21 (Rick Rieder), 2026-10-08 (Rick Rieder)
2026-09-15 Long Dur Treasuries bullish CNBC Halftime Committee · video
10-year Treasuries at 5% have historically preceded good forward returns (95% of prior instances), justifying beginning to add exposure even though supply pressure and a post-hike curve flattening may offer a slightly better entry soon
“when the ten year hits 5%, 95% of the time in history, it's really good forward investment environment in terms of buying interest rates”
Fed is going to hike rates, says BlackRock's Rick Rieder
2026-09-15 SPX neutral CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Equities face a structurally weaker setup versus a year ago — 20-25% earnings growth is a hard bar to repeat as fiscal stimulus fades, multiples are under pressure from real rates, and a 7%+ short-duration fixed-income alternative now competes meaningfully…
“I think they're just okay. And I think the volatility of equities will be higher going forward”
Fed is going to hike rates, says BlackRock's Rick Rieder
2026-08-15 Long Dur Treasuries bearish Rick Rieder · video
Fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury issuance (~$673B in a single week), and AI-related financing are flooding the market with supply, pushing real rates higher at the long end and requiring further backup to clear all the financing
“real rates are pressing higher is the cost of finance is going up driven by fiscal deficits around the world”
Rick Rieder: Inflation Isn’t the Biggest Risk for Markets
2026-08-15 USTS bearish Rick Rieder · video
High yield spreads are 150-200 bps wider than fundamentals warrant; elevated real rates are the sole drag keeping HY from compressing, creating an attractive entry at roughly 7% blended yield on A-minus paper with under 3 years of duration
“The high yield should be trading 150, 200 basis points lower in yield. It's not because we have real rates high”
Rick Rieder: Inflation Isn’t the Biggest Risk for Markets
2026-07-02 USTS neutral Rick Rieder · video
Euro-area growth is tangibly slowing while markets have significant rate hikes priced in, making European duration attractive on soft data days
“I actually think Europe's interesting... maybe add some European duration or maybe we did”
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder on Jobs Report, Fed Rate Cuts, Yields
Said again: 2026-09-24 (Rick Rieder)
2026-07-02 Investment Grade Credit bearish Rick Rieder · video
US IG spreads are at historically tight levels while a record $1.1T+ issuance wave creates indigestion risk — not worth owning at these valuations
“it's not really that exciting to own it either”
90d +5.1%
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder on Jobs Report, Fed Rate Cuts, Yields
2026-07-02 TIPS bullish Rick Rieder · video
Real rates have risen to levels Rieder considers interesting, and with inflation likely to abate (energy costs falling, core goods near zero), real returns will improve from here
“you're getting to the point where these real rates are pretty interesting”
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder on Jobs Report, Fed Rate Cuts, Yields
2026-07-02 RMBS bullish Rick Rieder · video
Securitized markets offer yield spread across commercial, residential, and non-agency structures in an environment where tight IG spreads make plain-vanilla credit unattractive
“there's so many things to do in securitized markets around commercial, residential, non-agency”
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder on Jobs Report, Fed Rate Cuts, Yields
2026-07-02 High Yield bullish Rick Rieder · video
European HY spreads are wider than US, and for dollar investors the swap back to USD makes the carry compelling, especially if the ECB eventually cuts rates
“European high yield, even European IG is pretty attractive when you bring it back to dollars”
90d -2.1%
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder on Jobs Report, Fed Rate Cuts, Yields
2026-06-15 short Long Dur Treasuries hedge Rick Rieder · video
Long-duration rates are unlikely to move significantly in either direction, making elevated TLT options volatility the better expression to monetize rather than taking a naked directional rate bet
“I think the best expression is sell volatility against it. Volatility's been high and that's been the best trade”
BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder Talks ETFs, Consumer Sentiment | Bloomberg Talks
2026-06-15 IBIT bullish Rick Rieder · video
Bitcoin is ultimately headed considerably higher despite near-term technical choppiness, though position kept moderate given competing opportunities in tech and credit
“I think it's ultimately going considerably higher. I think the technicals...cause it to chop around”
90d +18.5%
BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder Talks ETFs, Consumer Sentiment | Bloomberg Talks
2026-06-15 EM CREDIT neutral Rick Rieder · video
EM credit is 'just okay' on a relative-value basis versus tech growth and other yield sources, prompting a reduction in exposure
“some parts of the credit markets EM that I felt like it's just okay today and so we've reduced exposure”
BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder Talks ETFs, Consumer Sentiment | Bloomberg Talks
2026-06-05 long SPX / long EQUITY INDEX PUTS hedge Rick Rieder · video
Equity index implied volatility has compressed sharply, creating cheap optionality to protect the left tail against geopolitical escalation while remaining net long equities
“you can start to use volatility to protect your left tail, to protect the downside in the equity market”
BlackRock's Rieder Talks Jobs Report, AI and Markets
2026-06-05 Ai Infra bullish Rick Rieder · video
AI buildout has converted previously tangential infrastructure companies into direct top-line beneficiaries at multiples that are far less stretched than pure-play semis
“their business actually has become directly top-line revenue related to AI... the multiples are not as egregious today”
BlackRock's Rieder Talks Jobs Report, AI and Markets
2026-06-05 US INTEREST RATE DURATION bearish Rick Rieder · video
Heavy supply from data center financing and Treasury issuance into a strong economy warrants running below-benchmark duration to avoid rate exposure
“maybe I run a little bit less rate exposure, which I think makes a ton of sense”
BlackRock's Rieder Talks Jobs Report, AI and Markets
2026-06-05 JAPANESE EQUITIES bullish Rick Rieder · video
Weak yen driven by BOJ's gradual rate normalization is a direct tailwind for Japanese equities via earnings translation and export competitiveness
“I like Japanese equities”
BlackRock's Rieder Talks Jobs Report, AI and Markets
2026-06-05 JAPANESE FRONT-END RATES / SHORT-DURATION JGBS bearish Rick Rieder · video
BOJ is on a deliberate rate-hiking path which pressures front-end JGB prices while currency hedging costs compound the poor risk-reward
“front-end rates is a pretty tough trade”
BlackRock's Rieder Talks Jobs Report, AI and Markets
2026-06-02 MAGNIFICENT SEVEN bullish Rick Rieder · video
Mag Seven trades at roughly 26x forward earnings while delivering 30-40% earnings growth, making the valuation less scary than perceived and justifying staying invested despite crowding and geopolitical uncertainty
“I think you gotta, you gotta stay in it and the equity market will probably continue to do okay”
‘I think you gotta, you gotta stay in’: BlackRock’s Rick Rieder on bull market risks
2026-05-26 long MUNIS / long VENTURE AND EARLY-STAGE TECHNOLOGY other Rick Rieder · video
For capital holders, a barbell of diversified income-generating fixed income (targeting ~6-6.25%) plus venture/early-stage technology captures yield and stability on one end while participating in the fastest technology change cycle ever seen on the other
“I also think venture is really you take a barbell I would”
How a $3.3 Trillion Investor Thinks About Risk and Opportunity
2026-05-26 MUNIS bullish Rick Rieder · video
Current rate environment makes long munis an attractive income vehicle, providing tax-advantaged yield as a core wealth-preservation tool
“I think today long and munis are interesting like creating income”
90d -0.4%
How a $3.3 Trillion Investor Thinks About Risk and Opportunity
2026-05-26 SPACE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR bullish Rick Rieder · video
Space-based data delivery, high-resolution imaging, and healthcare applications represent a transformative and systematically underappreciated technology wave with a market size most investors have not fully priced in
“I think space is going to be the most extraordinary set of technologies”
How a $3.3 Trillion Investor Thinks About Risk and Opportunity
2026-05-05 long SPX / long USTS / short Long Dur Treasuries hedge Rick Rieder · video
Equities are a superior long-duration asset vs long-duration Treasuries given 520B/week Treasury gross supply and inflation-driven pricing power keeping the long end under pressure; stay in front/belly of the curve for yield income while equities carry the…
“I'm getting my long duration assets through equities”
90d +2.3% · 180d +1.8%
'We're Going to See a Productivity Revolution' Due to AI: BlackRock's Rick Rieder
2026-05-05 Investment Grade Credit bullish Rick Rieder · video
High risk-free rates make corporate yields attractive to institutional buyers (pensions, insurers), and 5-6% nominal GDP growth makes a meaningful default cycle nearly impossible given strong cash-flow coverage of debt
“cash flow makes up for a lot of mistakes”
90d -1.2% · 180d -2.2%
'We're Going to See a Productivity Revolution' Due to AI: BlackRock's Rick Rieder
Said again: 2026-06-15 (Rick Rieder)
2026-05-05 SPX bullish Bloomberg The Close · video
Buyback-driven supply scarcity, corporate pricing power confirmed in earnings, and 5-6% nominal GDP growth give equities far greater upside convexity than bonds can offer in the current environment
“equities have a whole lot more upside than quite frankly interest rates do today”
90d +5.0% · 180d +4.4%
Day 2 From the Milken Institute Global Conference | The Close 5/5/2026
Said again: 2026-05-26 (Rick Rieder)
2026-05-05 BKZ bullish Bloomberg The Close · video
Inflation still coursing through the system and equities are a better long-duration vehicle, so positioning in the front and belly earns yield without the risk of the long end, where gross Treasury issuance runs $520B per week
“I'd rather stay in the front of the belly of the yield curve”
Day 2 From the Milken Institute Global Conference | The Close 5/5/2026
2026-01-09 USTS bullish Rick Rieder · video
Post-jobs-report cheapening in the front-to-belly of the curve offers a better entry while that segment most directly governs real economy financing costs
“I tend to like the front to the belly of the yield curve, particularly after a number like this”
90d +0.0% · 180d -1.0%
BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder Talks Jobs Report, Fed Chair | Bloomberg Talks
2026-01-09 USD neutral Rick Rieder · video
European rates offer attractive yields for dollar-based investors given relatively higher real yields versus US at comparable quality, making going global a yield-enhancement tool
“look at interest rates around the world particularly Europe where you can as a dollar investor is quite attractive”
BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder Talks Jobs Report, Fed Chair | Bloomberg Talks
2026-01-09 VOL owns Rick Rieder · video
Equity vol is cheap relative to rates vol, so buying equity market volatility provides cheap downside protection ahead of uncertain macro catalysts like the AIPA Supreme Court ruling
“we buy a lot of volatility in the equity market because quite frankly volatility is cheap in the equity market”
90d +17.7% · 180d -15.0%
BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder Talks Jobs Report, Fed Chair | Bloomberg Talks
2026-01-09 High Yield bearish Rick Rieder · video
Reducing HY exposure in favor of higher-quality assets to maintain portfolio yield while lowering credit risk as the macro outlook for labor and growth softens
“we reduce a little bit of high yield”
90d -0.6% · 180d -1.3%
BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder Talks Jobs Report, Fed Chair | Bloomberg Talks
2025-09-09 long SPX / long VOL hedge Rick Rieder · video
Stay long equities for earnings growth and technical tailwinds while using currently cheap implied volatility to protect the downside, so you keep full upside exposure without taking unhedged tail risk
“you can buy vol. You can buy volatility very cheaply to manage your exposure and stay long”
BlackRock's Rick Rieder on markets, rates, the Fed and more
2025-09-09 SPX bullish Rick Rieder · video
Extraordinary technicals driven by buybacks massively dwarfing the IPO calendar (~$1T vs ~$50-60B), strong earnings growth, and an incoming rate-cut cycle collectively support continued equity upside
“I would stay long equities oriented to where growth and technology is”
90d +5.4% · 180d +4.9% · 1y +18.5%
BlackRock's Rick Rieder on markets, rates, the Fed and more
2025-09-09 USTS bullish Rick Rieder · video
Real rates out to 5 years are genuinely attractive with inflation running ~3% and nominal yields still near 6%, offering compelling income before the Fed's cuts fully transmit
“Would I stay five years in on the curve? I'd still clip that coupon”
90d +0.3% · 180d +1.8% · 1y -1.4%
BlackRock's Rick Rieder on markets, rates, the Fed and more
2025-09-09 GOLD bullish Rick Rieder · video
Gold is the superior currency-depreciation hedge given the US debt burden and the need to fund that debt globally, and behaves better than Bitcoin which tends to trade with Nasdaq vol
“Gold strikes me today as a better currency hedge”
90d +15.4% · 180d +41.5% · 1y +20.7%
BlackRock's Rick Rieder on markets, rates, the Fed and more
2025-09-09 BITCOIN bullish Rick Rieder · video
Bitcoin provides ballast against potential currency depreciation and should appreciate, though its correlation with Nasdaq vol warrants a smaller allocation than gold
“I just think it's going to go up and I think it's a good expression”
90d -18.7% · 180d -40.8% · 1y -29.8%
BlackRock's Rick Rieder on markets, rates, the Fed and more
2024-12-13 short Long Dur Treasuries / long USTS spread The Compound · video
The long end offers no compensation for its duration and auction tail risk while the front-to-belly provides equivalent yield with far less volatility, making an overweight front/belly versus underweight long-duration the optimal positioning
“I get all the yield I need in the front to the belly of the yield curve”
90d +0.3% · 180d +2.4% · 1y +2.7%
Is Rick Rieder a Bond King? | TCAF 169
2024-12-13 SPX bullish The Compound · video
Nominal GDP running near 4.5-5% makes 15% equity returns achievable without heroic assumptions, with tech and financials as the preferred compounding areas given data moats and easing financial conditions
“I think equities can get you 15 next year without a lot of...if you think the economy is growing at nominal GDP of four and a half”
90d -8.4% · 180d +0.2% · 1y +14.0%
Is Rick Rieder a Bond King? | TCAF 169
2024-12-13 Private Credit bullish The Compound · video
Private credit has a 2-3x longer runway versus public credit markets than private equity had versus public equity markets, and current deal terms (10-14% IRRs, hard collateral, low LTVs) remain highly attractive before the opportunity set compresses
“the runway for private credit is probably two to three times bigger than...private equity”
90d -1.1% · 180d +5.8% · 1y +2.4%
Is Rick Rieder a Bond King? | TCAF 169
2024-12-13 EUROPEAN CREDIT bullish The Compound · video
European credit offers better spread value than US credit (where spreads are very tight) and allows geographic yield optimization across a diversified income portfolio
“I like buying Credit in Europe, I like buying equities in the US”
Is Rick Rieder a Bond King? | TCAF 169

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