Stocks / ETF
SPYETF
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
$762.601d +1.1%5d +0.6%settled close · 2026-09-17
β 1.0052w $634–778Shares 989.8MNYSE Arca since 1993
The tape, with the calls on it
Who said what, and what SPY did next
Every dot is a day someone on the record made a call. Hover one to see who. We are not scoring them — the point is that you can see it and judge for yourself.
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Who’s talking about SPY
228 long25 neutral222 shortlatest 2026-09-11
| Date | Voice | Stance | Venue | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Cameron DawsonCIO, NewEdge Wealth | Neutral | Bloomberg The Close | Higher secular yields compress multiples while earnings growth slows sharply in 2027 to half the 2026 rate… |
| 2026-09-11 | Justin Bergner | Bearish | CNBC Fast Money Final Trade | The backup in long-end yields justifies a much larger market pullback than the ~0.7% weekly decline seen, as… |
| 2026-09-11 | David WooIndependent macro strategist (ex-BofA) | Short | Capital Allocators | Equity vol is cheap relative to the near-term tail risks (US-China AI escalation, Iran/Hormuz, Ukraine… |
| 2026-09-10 | Venu Krishna | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Exceptional earnings durability — 31% growth expected, driven by AI capex supercycle augmented by energy… |
| 2026-09-10 | Barry RitholtzCo-Founder & CIO, Ritholtz Wealth Management | Bullish | The Big Picture (Ritholtz) | 30-year equity compounding builds far more capital than T-Bills for entrepreneurs without a near-term… |
| 2026-09-10 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | September should be an up month because elevated negative-seasonality fears and AI pessimism are contrarian… |
| 2026-09-09 | Zeke Ashton | Short | The Acquirers Podcast | Market is highly vulnerable given rampant speculation in leveraged ETFs and 0DTE options, extreme… |
| 2026-09-09 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Neutral | Triangle Investor | Rising bond yields compress P/E multiples but exceptionally strong earnings — especially in tech — offset… |
| 2026-09-03 | Alli Mccartney | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | Broad earnings growth of ~24% expected for 2026 with average company growing ~15% — breadth is not… |
| 2026-09-02 | Chris BloomstranPresident & CIO, Semper Augustus Investments | Bearish | MOI Global | The index trades at 26x earnings with net margins near 12.8% — nearly double Buffett's postwar ceiling of… |
Show all 475 mentions
| Date | Voice | Stance | Venue | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bearish | David Lin | Rising risk premia from a Fed hiking into a 1.5% growth, oil-shocked, AI-concentrated economy is compressing… |
| 2026-09-01 | Scott Chronert | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | The AI trade broadening into non-MAG7 S&P sectors combined with a Q3 earnings season catalyst and… |
| 2026-08-31 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Bullish | Eurodollar Talk | Equal-weight S&P 500 provides broad equity participation while diffusing concentration risk in overbought… |
| 2026-08-31 | David FriedbergCEO, Ohalo; co-host, All-In | Bullish | Jeremy Grantham | The S&P 500 historically returns 10-11% per year with no property tax, insurance, or maintenance costs… |
| 2026-08-31 | Bob ElliottCEO & CIO, Unlimited Funds | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | High nominal GDP is not a green light for equities because extraordinary expectations — 25% earnings growth… |
| 2026-08-31 | Brooks Cutright | Bullish | Bloomberg ETF IQ | There is a documented systematic price effect when stocks are added to the S&P 500; buying a… |
| 2026-08-28 | Chris GalipeauSenior market strategist, Franklin Templeton | Bullish | Wealthion | Full employment, rising consumer net worth, and corporate earnings beating consensus by ~100% in Q1 make the… |
| 2026-08-24 | Nick ColasCo-Founder, DataTrek Research | Bearish | The Compound | Cap-weighted S&P now has ~38-40% in tech that has shifted from returning cash to shareholders to a VC-like… |
| 2026-08-24 | Julian EmanuelChief equity strategist, Evercore ISI | Bullish | CNBC Fast Money Final Trade | Structural tech-driven bull markets generate intense FOMO and capital-market surges—as seen in Y2K and… |
| 2026-08-24 | Mebane FaberCIO & Co-Founder, Cambria Investment Management | Bearish | Meb Faber | US CAPE ratio at ~40-43 is near the 1999 peak with dividend yield about to cross below 1%, and there is no… |
| 2026-08-21 | Jenny Harrington (Gilman Hill)CEO, Gilman Hill Asset Management | Bullish | CNBC Fast Money Final Trade | Q3 earnings growth rates are mathematically predetermined and will be spectacular, making near-term catalysts… |
| 2026-08-20 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bullish | The Monetary Matters Network | In an environment of Bessent-driven yield curve control, Treasury buybacks, and inflationary monetary… |
| 2026-08-20 | Darius DaleFounder & CEO, 42 Macro | Bullish | Macro Voices | Fourth turnings historically deliver above-average equity returns driven by elevated nominal GDP and earnings… |
| 2026-08-20 | Bill Dudley | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | Stretched valuations across three independent metrics — Shiller CAPE at 41 (near the Dec 1999 all-time high… |
| 2026-08-17 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Wealthion | Bull market is earnings-led rather than valuation-led, with companies repeatedly beating expectations and… |
| 2026-08-14 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | The Meb Faber Show | US equities at ~70% of global market cap echoes Japan at 50-60% in 1989; countries that still manufacture… |
| 2026-08-13 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | 2027 earnings estimates are rising toward $425 from $395 at earnings-season start, and at a 20x multiple that… |
| 2026-08-13 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Macro Voices | The global liquidity cycle has peaked and is rolling over, and the setup is analogous to late 2021/early 2022… |
| 2026-08-12 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Earnings momentum (FIMO — fabulous earnings momentum) is driving the market higher with broad participation… |
| 2026-08-12 | Darius DaleFounder & CEO, 42 Macro | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Paradigm C (running the economy hot) drives bubble-like equity conditions supported by a risk-on reflation… |
| 2026-08-11 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Wealthion | Baby boomer generation holds ~$110T in net worth and is spending aggressively in retirement, combined with… |
| 2026-08-11 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Neutral | The Julia La Roche Show | Liquidity cycle peaked in Q3–Q4 2025, compressing PE multiples as rising yields lift the cost of capital even… |
| 2026-08-10 | Cathie WoodCEO & CIO, ARK Invest | Bullish | Switzer Report | AI and the five major innovation platforms (robotics, energy storage, AI, blockchain, multi-omics) are… |
| 2026-08-10 | Yie Hsin Hung | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Overweight US equities first, emerging markets second, on the back of strong and broadening corporate… |
| 2026-08-09 | Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago Capital | Bullish | Brent Johnson Milkshakes Pod | Investing • Finance | As foreign sovereign bond yields rise and capital flees non-dollar debt, the milkshake theory predicts flows… |
| 2026-08-07 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | The Compound | No recession through end of decade means fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) continues; at $43/share forward… |
| 2026-08-06 | Steve HankeProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University | Bearish | Wealthion | US stock market is in a bubble by every valuation measure, and rising interest rates — driven by re-emerging… |
| 2026-08-06 | Jeff Snider | Bearish | Michael Burry | Late credit cycle dynamics — rising junk spreads, fallen angels, repeated collateral fraud in private credit… |
| 2026-08-03 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost | Big tech and AI have become highly debt-financed and are valued at extremes in the largest equity market in… |
| 2026-08-03 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bullish | Wealthion | Non-AI stocks have decoupled from the AI complex with correlation turning negative, outperformed AI stocks… |
| 2026-08-02 | Mohnish PabraiFund manager — Pabrai Investment Funds | Bearish | New Money | Shiller PE at tech-bubble levels and extreme Mag-7 concentration make the index 'ridiculously overvalued,'… |
| 2026-08-02 | Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors | Bullish | Real Vision | A 20% market decline destroys $50T of collateral — dwarfing all COVID QE — so government cannot allow it to… |
| 2026-07-28 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | US exceptionalism is empirically fading — US equities have underperformed EM by 22%, Europe by 12%, and Japan… |
| 2026-07-28 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | US equities have underperformed Europe by 12%, Japan by 17%, and EM by 22% since Trump's inauguration — and… |
| 2026-07-24 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Economy continues to show resilience with no recession materializing, and fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO)… |
| 2026-07-24 | Steven FeldmanCo-Founder & CEO, GBI | Bearish | Wealthion | At 40% weight in 10 AI-correlated companies, the S&P 500 is no longer a diversified index but a highly… |
| 2026-07-24 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Yardeni keeps his personal portfolio mostly in ETFs tracking the S&P 500 because he believes in the market… |
| 2026-07-20 | Jamie DimonChairman & CEO, JPMorgan Chase | Bearish | The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost | Market is pricing in a good but not perfect outcome at elevated multiples that leave little margin for the… |
| 2026-07-16 | Mark ThorntonSenior Fellow, Mises Institute | Bearish | Wealthion | The US stock market is at its most extreme overvaluation in 150 years outside of 1927, and elevated leverage… |
| 2026-07-15 | Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | Stocks now constitute a larger share of US household net worth than real estate and are effectively too big… |
| 2026-07-15 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bullish | CNBC Television | The AI-driven technological revolution will expand margins across a wide range of companies, supporting broad… |
| 2026-07-11 | Vance Howard (Howard Capital)CEO, Howard Capital Management | Bullish | Fox Business | S&P 500 broke out of a flag pattern with broad market breadth (60% of stocks above 200-day MA), signaling a… |
| 2026-07-11 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | 2027 S&P earnings of $400 applied at 20x multiple justifies 8,000 target, and earnings growth is real — the… |
| 2026-07-10 | Jim Cramer (CNBC)Host, CNBC's Mad Money | Bullish | CNBC Television | An S&P 500 index fund should form 50% of a portfolio as a hedge against mistakes in individual stock picking… |
| 2026-07-09 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | CNBC Television | Iran-driven market selloffs have historically been buying opportunities, as the Feb–April escalation period… |
| 2026-07-09 | Ryan DetrickChief market strategist, Carson Group | Bullish | CNBC Television | NYSE advance/decline line hit an all-time high just 2 days ago and small/mid caps are leading, and market… |
| 2026-07-08 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bearish | Michael Green | US equities are structurally overvalued as passive flows bid up prices without fundamental analysis, earnings… |
| 2026-07-07 | Julian EmanuelChief equity strategist, Evercore ISI | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Oil returning below $70 from its war-driven spike is a profound disinflationary positive — historically the… |
| 2026-07-07 | Mike WilsonChief US Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley | Neutral | Bloomberg Television | The new Fed chair Kevin Walsh is reducing forward guidance, forcing markets to price uncertainty themselves… |
| 2026-07-07 | Wei LiGlobal Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock Investment Institute | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | The combination of leading AI chips, leading AI models, energy independence, and the depth of US capital… |
| 2026-07-06 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | CNBC Television | Q2 earnings will beat expectations again, compressing the market's PE further below its January level and… |
| 2026-07-01 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Soar Financially | Earnings-driven 'meltup' (FIMO — fabulous earnings momentum) fueled by a resilient economy, baby boomer… |
| 2026-06-26 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | CNBC Television | US equities remain overpriced by long-term valuation standards and have not yet been tested in a bear-market… |
| 2026-06-26 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | CNBC Television | By market-cap-to-GDP and other predictive valuation metrics, US equities are the most expensive in American… |
| 2026-06-26 | Kevin SmithCIO, Crescat Capital | Short | CNBC Closing Bell Overtime | Record valuations, tight credit spreads, deteriorating breadth, and hawkish Fed create conditions for a… |
| 2026-06-26 | Ryan DetrickChief market strategist, Carson Group | Bullish | The Compound | This bull market is only 3.5 years old versus a 7-year average for prior post-WWII cycles, market breadth… |
| 2026-06-26 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Neutral | David Lin | Authorities will prevent aggressive enough tightening to crash equities in 2026, producing a range-bound… |
| 2026-06-25 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | The Diary Of A CEO | US stocks are at the biggest investment bubble in history driven by AI euphoria, trading at 35-40x earnings… |
| 2026-06-25 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | 2027 consensus EPS rose $48 YTD while the S&P's PE on those estimates actually contracted one turn (19.4 →… |
| 2026-06-25 | Mohnish PabraiFund manager — Pabrai Investment Funds | Bearish | interview | At a trailing PE of ~23x, historical data shows forward 10-year S&P returns have oscillated between -2% and… |
| 2026-06-24 | Marc FaberEditor, Gloom Boom & Doom Report | Bearish | Wealthion | Market breadth is historically narrow (only ~60% above 200-DMA vs 80% in a healthy bull), the rally is driven… |
| 2026-06-24 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | NA | US equities have moved from 'spectacular' to 'even more spectacular' valuation, and historically high PEs… |
| 2026-06-22 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | AI-driven productivity surge powers equity returns regardless of Fed policy moves, with market discipline… |
| 2026-06-22 | Tushar Yadava | Bullish | Bloomberg ETF IQ | Equities likely move higher by year-end as earnings remain strong, but BlackRock is trimming overweight… |
| 2026-06-19 | Seth KlarmanCEO, Baupost Group | Bearish | Masters in Business | A massive wave of large IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) plus employee monetization pressure and simultaneous… |
| 2026-06-18 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Fox Business | Earnings momentum (FIMO — fabulous earnings momentum) continues to accelerate, driving the index toward a… |
| 2026-06-18 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) — not valuation multiple expansion — is driving the bull market, with… |
| 2026-06-18 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Near-50% index concentration in 10 names combined with the funding burden of the AI capex cycle represents… |
| 2026-06-17 | Joseph WangCIO, Monetary Macro | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Convergence of massive incoming equity supply (SpaceX lockup unlocks, Anthropic, Google, and Supermicro… |
| 2026-06-12 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | US equities trade at P/B of 5.7x vs 2.39x for ex-US, a gap wide enough to nearly match historical parity… |
| 2026-06-11 | Larry McdonaldFounder, The Bear Traps Report | Bearish | Macro Voices | Massive tech IPO capital raises ($200-250B immediate plus $3T lockup overhang) will drain liquidity from… |
| 2026-06-11 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Forward Guidance | The adjusted Warren Buffett metric (total equity market cap minus federal debt, divided by GDP) is at its… |
| 2026-06-08 | Jessica RabeCo-Founder, DataTrek Research | Bullish | The Compound | The S&P's current 2-standard-deviation 50-day return has historically been followed by positive 50-day… |
| 2026-06-05 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bearish | Tom Lee | A parabolic market lift over the past month has elevated expectations to levels that are now being sobered… |
| 2026-06-04 | Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices)Co-host, MacroVoices & Market Huddle | Bearish | Macro Voices | The S&P 500 is in a short-term overbought condition after one of only four comparable rallies in 20 years… |
| 2026-06-04 | David SolomonCEO, Goldman Sachs | Bullish | Odd Lots | The 490 non-top-10 S&P 500 stocks trading at 17-20x forward earnings are attractively valued because… |
| 2026-06-03 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Wealthion | Rising inflation and elevated Treasury yields will compress PE multiples, causing equity market derating even… |
| 2026-06-02 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | Reuters | US equities are in a multi-year bubble that exceeded two-sigma thresholds years ago and has been artificially… |
| 2026-06-01 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | S&P 500 earnings came in $10 higher in Q1 alone, implying ~$40 upward revision for the full year which at a… |
| 2026-06-01 | Charles PayneHost, Making Money / Fox Business Network | Bullish | Fox Making Money | The AI-driven 'fourth industrial revolution' is a structural tailwind that makes this bull market a… |
| 2026-05-28 | George Goncalves (MUFG)Bond market strategist | Bearish | Wealthion | Valuations are extremely stretched but implicit government support prevents a structural collapse, though… |
| 2026-05-28 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | Q1 earnings came in at $80 vs. $70 expected — a $40 annualized beat — which mechanically justifies 800–1,000… |
| 2026-05-28 | Saira Malik | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | 20%-plus earnings growth forecast for 2026 supports S&P reaching at least 7,750 without requiring any… |
| 2026-05-28 | Ben Snider | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | 24% S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026 driven by AI infrastructure — with roughly half coming from AI stocks and… |
| 2026-05-27 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bearish | Wealthion | Passive investing mechanics have inflated equity valuations to the point where forward expected returns are… |
| 2026-05-27 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) — accelerating earnings growth on a resilient, recession-free economy —… |
| 2026-05-26 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Bullish | Cresset Family Office | US equities generating roughly 20% ROE are systematically underestimated relative to fixed income… |
| 2026-05-25 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | Behind the Balance Sheet | US market is at 2/3 of global market cap with extreme valuations while non-US developed and emerging markets… |
| 2026-05-22 | Mohnish PabraiFund manager — Pabrai Investment Funds | Bearish | My First Million | At current P/E levels (~23x), historical data shows the index's forward 10-year returns oscillate between -2%… |
| 2026-05-22 | Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR Capital | Bearish | Excess Returns | Shiller CAPE near 40 (second highest in history) makes the US market's 5-10 year prospective returns look… |
| 2026-05-20 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Meb Faber | Structural tailwinds and weak investor conviction support continued upside, with a year-end 2026 target of… |
| 2026-05-19 | Jay Hatfield (Infrastructure Capital)CEO, Infrastructure Capital Advisors | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | AI boom has driven 2027 EPS estimates up 11% (350→385), supporting a 21x multiple even with the Strait closed… |
| 2026-05-19 | Racquel Oden | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | Corporate earnings are tracking 21% growth versus the 14% projected at year-start, with an 84% beat rate well… |
| 2026-05-18 | Christine Benz | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | Non-US stocks offer higher dividend yields and more attractive valuations than US equities; global market-cap… |
| 2026-05-16 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | Excess Returns | The 2021 bubble was only halfway deflated before being resuscitated by unprecedented AI capex, leaving a… |
| 2026-05-15 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Meb Faber | Structural tailwinds and weak investor conviction (not euphoria) support continued upside, with a year-end… |
| 2026-05-14 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bullish | Macro Voices | Mechanical 401k and passive fund inflows continue regardless of macro news, creating a persistent bid that… |
| 2026-05-14 | Erik TownsendHost, MacroVoices podcast | Short | Macro Voices | Despite the market's mechanical levitation, the unpriced economic shock from the Hormuz energy crisis… |
| 2026-05-11 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | CNBC Television | Record corporate earnings, resilient consumer spending backed by $89T baby boomer net worth, AI-driven… |
| 2026-05-07 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Bullish | CNBC Television | Price multiples and earnings comparisons place the market at the equivalent of Q4 1999, suggesting ~40% more… |
| 2026-05-07 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Traditional DCF analysis shows ~75% of current market value rests in terminal value assumptions rather than… |
| 2026-05-06 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bullish | iCapital | AI and a broader Cambrian explosion of technology will drive US potential growth from ~2% toward 4%… |
| 2026-05-06 | Kevin Hassett | Bullish | Fox Mornings with Maria | AI productivity boom is feeding through an earnings boom while the Big Beautiful Bill's full expensing and… |
| 2026-05-05 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | Buyback-driven supply scarcity, corporate pricing power confirmed in earnings, and 5-6% nominal GDP growth… |
| 2026-05-05 | Hepsen Uzcan | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | A structural 30-year shift in capital allocation away from US-only concentration is underway as Japanese… |
| 2026-04-30 | Rob ArnottFounder & chairman, Research Affiliates | Neutral | Money Maze Podcast | Non-US equities remain cheap on valuation even after some mean reversion versus US equities, offering a… |
| 2026-04-29 | Bill AckmanCEO, Pershing Square | Bullish | TheStreet | Strong economic tailwinds from pro-investment tax policy, AI infrastructure build-out, energy infrastructure… |
| 2026-04-28 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Bearish | Invest Like The Best | At a stock-market-cap-to-GDP ratio of 252% and a P/E of ~22, historical data shows 10-year forward returns… |
| 2026-04-25 | Chris BloomstranPresident & CIO, Semper Augustus Investments | Bearish | The Investor’s Podcast | The S&P 500 at 26x earnings against the second-highest profit margin in stock market history historically… |
| 2026-04-23 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Bullish | Cem Karsan | Fiscal dominance structurally keeps nominal GDP elevated and asset prices rising in currency terms even if… |
| 2026-04-21 | Josh Brown (Ritholtz)CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management | Bullish | interview | 30% gains over 18-24 months are historically consistent with prior rally patterns and current FOMO dynamics… |
| 2026-04-21 | Sinead Colton Grant | Bullish | Bill Miller | Double-digit earnings growth with broadening participation beyond tech supports $315 EPS and a year-end S&P… |
| 2026-04-20 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost | US market sits at one of the two or three highest valuations in history precisely when macro headwinds are… |
| 2026-04-19 | Andrew Pogue | Bearish | Sunday's Idea Brunch | Rich US valuations, an unsustainable fiscal deficit, a long-term current-account deficit, and a pivot to… |
| 2026-04-17 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | Library of Mistakes | US market is as overpriced as 1929 or 2000 bubble peaks, operating in an 'unbelievably dangerous environment… |
| 2026-04-15 | Ray DalioFounder, Bridgewater Associates | Bearish | Investor Weekly | When measured in gold rather than depreciating dollars, the S&P 500 returned -28% in 2025, and stagflation… |
| 2026-04-14 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bullish | CNBC Television | Long-term investors who bought every major dip — dot-com bust, GFC, COVID — made over 8x their money since… |
| 2026-04-13 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | Defense spending stimulus (~$30-60B/month) outweighs the household energy cost burden from higher oil prices… |
| 2026-04-13 | Bill AckmanCEO, Pershing Square | Bullish | Pershing Square | AI infrastructure boom, energy buildout, major infrastructure spending, and the new tax bill with investment… |
| 2026-04-10 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Short | interview | Ceasefire is largely fake (Strait still closed), positioning rinse is complete, inflation is re-accelerating… |
| 2026-04-10 | Steve SosnickChief Strategist, Interactive Brokers | Neutral | interview | Midterm election years have historically been the market's worst years recently, and markets tend to… |
| 2026-04-06 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | High oil prices benefit US equities on three fronts: the US is a net energy exporter, competitors in Asia are… |
| 2026-04-06 | Rob ArnottFounder & chairman, Research Affiliates | Bearish | Brad Roth | Non-US stocks, especially on the value side, are extraordinarily cheap relative to US equities, and Arnott's… |
| 2026-04-02 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | CNBC Television | The Iran conflict has an effective exit ramp via US de-escalation, removing the worst-case scenario overhang… |
| 2026-04-01 | Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago Capital | Bullish | Julia La Roche Show | In three of four plausible macro scenarios the US outperforms the rest of the world due to superior… |
| 2026-03-31 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | interview | US equities at more than double the price-to-book of rest-of-world equities represents extraordinary… |
| 2026-03-30 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | CNBC Television | War is triggering a cascading sequence from energy price shock to broader inflation shock to demand… |
| 2026-03-27 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | US equity P/B is more than double the rest of the world — an extraordinary overvaluation — and a secular… |
| 2026-03-26 | Chris DavisChairman, Davis Advisors | Bearish | InvestmentNews TV | The S&P 500 index has become a concentrated momentum/growth trade at 26x earnings, creating a valuation… |
| 2026-03-25 | Michael BurryFounder, Scion Asset Management | Bearish | Investor Weekly | The three structural forces that kept the S&P 500 above fair value for 34 years — passive investing inflows… |
| 2026-03-25 | Mohnish PabraiFund manager — Pabrai Investment Funds | Neutral | My First Million | At a PE ratio of ~23, historical data shows S&P 500 buyers have earned annualized returns of between +2% and… |
| 2026-03-24 | Michael OliverFounder, Momentum Structural Analysis | Bearish | Lacy Hunt | Technical momentum indicators signal the stock market is breaking down from the biggest bubble in history… |
| 2026-03-23 | Mohnish PabraiFund manager — Pabrai Investment Funds | Bearish | Pabrai Wagons ETF | The S&P 500 is heavily concentrated in Mag 7 and high-valuation tech names after an extreme run-up, making it… |
| 2026-03-23 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | Capital Allocators with Ted Seides | US stocks are too high-priced from top to toe relative to historical valuation norms, making them… |
| 2026-03-19 | Fran Ois RochonFund manager — Giverny Capital | Bearish | Francois Rochon | At 25x trailing P/E — 40% above the historical median of 18x — S&P 500 forward returns over the next 5-10… |
| 2026-03-18 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | US budget deficit expanding at ~$2T/year pace pushes national debt above $39T, weakening the dollar and… |
| 2026-03-16 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | LifeWorthLiving | US market is in a major bubble with PE ~31 that institutional professionals themselves agree must revert… |
| 2026-03-12 | Patrick SereznaCo-host, MacroVoices | Short | Macro Voices | Structural weakness in mega-cap tech, private credit redemption pressure, and systematic flow triggers being… |
| 2026-03-12 | Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices)Co-host, MacroVoices & Market Huddle | Bearish | Macro Voices | MAG7 leadership has structurally broken down, systematic flow triggers are being hit, private credit… |
| 2026-03-10 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Roaring 2020s secular bull market thesis remains intact despite near-term volatility, with continued wealth… |
| 2026-03-10 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Strong earnings growth and a productivity comeback driven by AI keep the economy resilient enough to reach… |
| 2026-03-09 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | CNBC Television | Markets are pricing an 80% probability of a temporary/reversible shock but El-Erian sees it as only 50%… |
| 2026-03-06 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Fox Business | Geopolitical crises in the Middle East historically are buying opportunities, and strong productivity… |
| 2026-03-05 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bearish | Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® | CAPE near 40x (second-highest on record) combined with a near-zero or negative equity risk premium against… |
| 2026-03-02 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | US equities trade at price-to-book more than 2.5x the rest of the world, foreign capital repatriation is… |
| 2026-03-02 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bearish | Pepperdine University | After one of the six best 3-year runs in S&P 500 history fueled by a sentiment swing from pessimism to… |
| 2026-02-27 | Aswath DamodaranProfessor of finance, NYU Stern | Bearish | Meb Faber | US equities are richly priced with implied equity risk premium near historical averages, but a painful global… |
| 2026-02-26 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bearish | Investor Insight Channel | Equity valuations are at historically extreme levels by multiple measures (Shiller PE, Buffett indicator)… |
| 2026-02-18 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | A productivity-driven growth acceleration from AI, robotics, quantum, biotech, and related technologies will… |
| 2026-02-06 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | CNBC Television | The Magnificent 7 must sell their technologies to the rest of the S&P 500, meaning AI benefits broaden out to… |
| 2026-01-31 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | Earnings growth is accelerating globally, market breadth is broadening, and the new Fed chair is unlikely to… |
| 2026-01-30 | Russell NapierMarket strategist & financial historian | Bearish | Meb Faber | US equities are at historically extreme valuations (Shiller CAPE above 40) while institutional investors are… |
| 2026-01-29 | Savita SubramanianHead of US Equity Strategy, BofA | Bullish | CNBC Fast Money Final Trade | Broadening away from mega-cap toward equal-weight and small caps is supported by capex investment, clearer… |
| 2026-01-29 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Short | Michael Green | Passive investing penetration (~54% in US equities) creates self-catalyzing systemic instability — at ~80-85%… |
| 2026-01-23 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Neutral | Tom Lee | International stocks outperformed US equities in the prior year, making them crowded trades most vulnerable… |
| 2026-01-22 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bullish | Bloomberg Podcasts | The US economy is growing strongly (estimated 5%+ GDP in Q1) driven by AI capex, making the US one of the… |
| 2026-01-22 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | CNBC Television | Market believes policy resets are repeatable so buy-the-dip remains valid, but El-Erian warns the US growth… |
| 2026-01-22 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | CNBC Television | A resilient US economy with no recession in sight drives strong earnings growth, fueling an earnings-led… |
| 2026-01-22 | Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR Capital | Bearish | interview | 75–85% of US outperformance vs world since 1990 came from valuation expansion rather than fundamentals… |
| 2026-01-21 | Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors | Bearish | Forward Guidance | The 1962–1982 analog — the closest historical parallel to current populist/inflationary cycle — saw every… |
| 2026-01-21 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bearish | interview | The Shiller CAPE at 40 is a 3-sigma event — higher than 1929 and the Nifty50 peak — and every historical… |
| 2026-01-21 | Charles PayneHost, Making Money / Fox Business Network | Bullish | interview | Equities only need the perception that the Fed's next move is a cut — not the magnitude — to keep rallying… |
| 2026-01-20 | Charles PayneHost, Making Money / Fox Business Network | Bullish | Jeffrey Gundlach | AI-driven productivity is expanding corporate profit margins from ~10% to ~20% and creating a jobless… |
| 2026-01-19 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bearish | Michael Green | Passive investing has created near-perfectly inelastic demand for large caps via flow-driven multiplier… |
| 2026-01-19 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | interview | Historically extreme US valuations mathematically guarantee low-to-negative returns over the next decade… |
| 2026-01-15 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bullish | CNBC Television | American exceptionalism and above-trend US economic growth over the next several years justify long-term… |
| 2026-01-15 | Terry SmithFounder & CIO, Fundsmith | Bearish | Seth Klarman | Sixteen years without a genuine economic downturn, passive index inflows now exceeding 50% of AUM are… |
| 2026-01-13 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | A broad technology-driven productivity revolution is lifting US potential growth from 1.8% toward 4% by 2030… |
| 2026-01-13 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | In the Money | The 493 companies outside the Mag 7 are the actual beneficiaries of AI-driven productivity gains, with… |
| 2026-01-09 | Karen Finerman (Metropolitan)CEO, Metropolitan Capital Advisors | Short | CNBC Fast Money Final Trade | VIX is currently cheap making downside protection via SPY puts inexpensive, an attractive risk/reward to… |
| 2026-01-08 | Marc FaberEditor, Gloom Boom & Doom Report | Bearish | Meb Faber | US equities are in a bubble (65% of global market cap, extreme valuations by price-to-sales/book/earnings)… |
| 2026-01-05 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | Tariffs anniversarying, Fed cutting, ISM potentially turning above 50, and strong earnings growth across… |
| 2026-01-05 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | Tariffs anniversarying, Fed cutting, ISM recovering above 50, and strong earnings growth across multiple… |
| 2026-01-05 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Neutral | interview | The S&P 500 is priced for subnormal returns of roughly 2% or less because the non-Mag7 constituents trade at… |
| 2025-12-30 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bullish | Network State Podcast | Because stock market gains drive capital gains taxes that are the marginal source of US federal tax receipts… |
| 2025-12-29 | Ben Snider | Bullish | interview | Broad earnings growth remains strong (S&P 500 +12% EPS in Q3, S&P 493 consistent ~15%/yr for three… |
| 2025-12-29 | Ben LevisohnMarkets editor, Barron's | Bearish | Barron's Roundtable | After three consecutive years of strong gains, AI trade complexity, Fed policy uncertainty, and midterm… |
| 2025-12-28 | Ben FelixCIO, PWL Capital | Neutral | interview | Elevated US valuations historically correlate with lower future returns, and extreme index concentration… |
| 2025-12-19 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bearish | Kitco NEWS | Shiller CAPE at 40x is the 6th mega-bubble of the past century; at this multiple, historical expected returns… |
| 2025-12-18 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | WEALTHTRACK | Roaring 2020s productivity boom sustains 3–3.5% real GDP growth and high profit margins with no recession… |
| 2025-12-17 | Mark MossYouTube host — macro & Bitcoin | Bullish | Michael Burry | Burry placed a $1.6 billion short against the S&P 500 in 2023 based on bearish macro outlook, but Moss… |
| 2025-12-16 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | CNBC Television | Strong productivity growth driven by AI adoption and a robust labor market will sustain 3-3.5% real GDP… |
| 2025-12-15 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bearish | Tom Lee | Without a new Fed chair and no Fed put yet in play, the first half of 2026 lacks a key market backstop… |
| 2025-12-13 | Bill NygrenPortfolio manager, Oakmark Funds | Bearish | Fox Business | The S&P 500 has become a highly concentrated technology mega-cap growth fund over the past decade, making it… |
| 2025-12-12 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | Despite an expected 20% drawdown in 2026, the absence of leverage in the economy means the correction will be… |
| 2025-12-11 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | A dovish new Fed chair, White House put, and QT ending create tailwinds for equities, driving S&P 500 to… |
| 2025-12-11 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | Fed put returning under new dovish chair plus White House put creates tailwinds for equities, driving S&P to… |
| 2025-12-08 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Neutral | Bloomberg Television | US now constitutes 65% of MSCI world market cap after 15 years of stay-home outperformance, making a… |
| 2025-12-04 | Marko PapicGeopolitical macro strategist | Bullish | Macro Voices | Erosion of Fed independence historically benefits equities as the central bank loses its role as the 'prudent… |
| 2025-12-03 | Michael BurryFounder, Scion Asset Management | Short | Oksana | Over 50% of money is now passive/index, meaning when the market falls there is no rotation into ignored value… |
| 2025-12-02 | Michael BurryFounder, Scion Asset Management | Short | interview | With over 50% of money now passive/index-driven and fewer than 10% of assets actively managed on a long-term… |
| 2025-12-01 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | QT ending (effectively QE starting), Fed rate cut in December, seasonal tailwinds, and performance chasing by… |
| 2025-11-28 | Russell NapierMarket strategist & financial historian | Bearish | Prime Quadrant | Global capital repatriation — as surplus nations redirect savings to fund domestic industrial policy rather… |
| 2025-11-28 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Bloomberg Podcasts | The 493 S&P 500 companies outside the Mag 7 are direct beneficiaries of the productivity gains Mag 7… |
| 2025-11-26 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bullish | Market Disruptors Podcast | Running the economy hot with financial repression inflates nominal asset prices; fiscal dominance forces the… |
| 2025-11-17 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | interview | US equities are in a speculative mania driven by AI/data center enthusiasm that prices in transformative… |
| 2025-11-12 | Meb FaberCo-founder & CIO, Cambria | Bearish | Capital Considered | US equities at a CAPE ratio of 40 — the second highest ever — have historically produced roughly zero real… |
| 2025-11-10 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | CNBC Television | An earnings-led meltup with S&P 500 earnings growing ~14% YoY versus the ~6.5% expected keeps providing… |
| 2025-11-06 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bearish | LifeWorthLiving | The US economy is far more fragile than recognized, with the normally resilient service sector flatlining… |
| 2025-11-05 | Bill NygrenPortfolio manager, Oakmark Funds | Bearish | The World According To Boyar | The S&P 500 has morphed from a broadly diversified index into a concentrated mega-cap technology growth fund… |
| 2025-11-05 | Bill NygrenPortfolio manager, Oakmark Funds | Bearish | The World According To Boyar | The S&P 500 has become a concentrated mega-cap technology growth fund, not a diversified index, so passive… |
| 2025-11-02 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | Cooper Academy | US equities are at the highest valuation in history by multiple measures (Shiller PE ~39, Wilshire 5000/GDP… |
| 2025-10-24 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Extreme fear indicators (fear/greed at 25, record selling, HY outflows, fourth-largest VIX spike in three… |
| 2025-10-23 | Brett RentmeesterCIO, Jaggi Family Office | Bearish | Wealthion | Technology sector P/S is higher than the 1999 peak and top-10 names represent 39% of the S&P 500, creating… |
| 2025-10-22 | Mike NovogratzFounder/CEO, Galaxy Digital | Bullish | CNBC Television | S&P chart is less than 1% from a technical breakout level and ample liquidity plus the AI narrative suggest… |
| 2025-10-22 | Sven HenrichFounder, NorthmanTrader | Bullish | Lacy Hunt | The weekly 5 EMA has repeatedly acted as support since the April 2024 lows and has just been recaptured… |
| 2025-10-22 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | ISM below 50 for 31 months historically signals mid/early cycle (never late cycle), combined with strong… |
| 2025-10-20 | Jessica RabeCo-Founder, DataTrek Research | Bullish | The Compound | Seasonality strongly favors a Q4 melt-up since the S&P peaks in December 53% of the time with an average 22%… |
| 2025-10-14 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bullish | CNBC Television | Staying invested through crises (dot-com, financial crisis, COVID) still produced 8% compounded returns over… |
| 2025-10-14 | Sven CarlinFounder, Sven Carlin Research Platform | Bearish | Wealthion | PE of 30 vs historical sub-20, dividend yield of 1.2% vs historical 4%, with over 50% of recent gains… |
| 2025-10-10 | Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Convergence of falling fed funds rate (toward 2.5%), persistent fiscal deficit (6–7%), and AI capex buildout… |
| 2025-10-10 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Risk-reward for the large cap index is poor given stretched multiples and 40% concentration in mega-cap AI… |
| 2025-10-08 | George RobertsonAuthor, The Monetary Frontier | Short | Forward Guidance | Massive fiscal tightening from tariffs (~$200-300B corporate tax drag) plus DOGE job cuts have caused a ~4… |
| 2025-10-02 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | The median S&P 500 stock trades at 17x forward earnings (not the expensive MAG-7 skewed average), US… |
| 2025-09-24 | Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | Oracle breaking the cash-flow-funded AI spending model forces Amazon, Microsoft, and Google into a… |
| 2025-09-20 | Meb FaberCo-founder & CIO, Cambria | Bearish | Dividend Stockpile | US equities are near historical valuation extremes (10-year CAPE ~40, S&P yield at record-low 1.2%), and the… |
| 2025-09-18 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | US stocks have priced in aggressive rate cuts and AI-driven growth similarly to how electricity stocks… |
| 2025-09-11 | Bill NygrenPortfolio manager, Oakmark Funds | Bullish | CNBC Television | Roughly 150 S&P 500 stocks still trade under 14x earnings today — the same count as 7 years ago — meaning the… |
| 2025-09-09 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Bullish | CNBC Television | Extraordinary technicals driven by buybacks massively dwarfing the IPO calendar (~$1T vs ~$50-60B), strong… |
| 2025-08-31 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bearish | Adam Taggart | Equity valuations are at 230-year PE highs per Malkiel, Buffett's market-cap-to-GDP is at all-time highs, and… |
| 2025-08-29 | Joe DuranCEO, Rise Growth Partners | Neutral | Wealthion | With seven stocks now driving 34% of S&P 500 market cap at valuations resembling 1999, shifting to… |
| 2025-08-25 | Dave CollumProfessor of Chemistry, Cornell University | Bearish | Wealthion | Shiller CAPE at 38-39 versus 110-year historical average of 12-13 implies a 65-70% regression-to-mean… |
| 2025-08-21 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bearish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Stocks are expensive relative to fundamentals after 16 years without a serious correction, driving investor… |
| 2025-08-20 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | US stocks are expensive relative to fundamentals after 16 years without a serious correction, with elevated… |
| 2025-08-18 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bullish | Wealthion | Extreme S&P valuations compress forward equity returns to low single digits (~6% annually), making bonds at… |
| 2025-08-15 | Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago Capital | Short | Forward Guidance | Confluence of rare simultaneous signals — CTAs 95% long, VIX and bond vol at lows, momentum diverging from… |
| 2025-08-15 | Peter BoockvarCIO, OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners | Bearish | Wealthion | A decade of US market dominance has created extreme valuation disparity; the pendulum is swinging back in a… |
| 2025-08-08 | Kevin GrimesCEO & CIO, Grimes & Company | Bearish | Wealthion | S&P forward PE near 23x, RSI hit 75, market up 25% in four months from April lows — technically and… |
| 2025-08-04 | Vincent DeluardGlobal Macro Strategist, StoneX | Bullish | Hidden Forces | Fiscal dominance suppresses real interest rates, boosts corporate profits via government deficit spending… |
| 2025-08-01 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Near-term August seasonal weakness combined with JPMorgan squeeze sentiment at 2021 highs and retail options… |
| 2025-07-30 | Danny DayanCIO, DWD Partners | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Inflation at 3–4% is benign for equity revenues, dollar weakness flatters the ~30% of S&P revenues from… |
| 2025-07-30 | Joseph WangCIO, Monetary Macro | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Tariffs act as a tax increase, monetary policy is more restrictive than markets expected, and these policies… |
| 2025-07-29 | Jason Katz | Bullish | Fox Varney & Co | Rally is fundamentals-driven rather than euphoria-fueled, and institutional investors who missed the move may… |
| 2025-07-28 | Michael CembalestChairman of Market and Investment Strategy, J.P. Morgan Asset Management | Bullish | The Compound | After the liberation-day tariff selloff produced a 20% correction, historical base rates going back 100 years… |
| 2025-07-23 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bearish | Wealthion | Passive inflows have created Ponzi-like valuation dynamics (index at 3× sales, leaders at 5–15× sales) where… |
| 2025-07-15 | Thomas Hayes | Bullish | Fox Varney & Co | Every V-shaped recovery of this magnitude since 1950 has been followed by an additional ~22% gain over the… |
| 2025-07-11 | Ryan DetrickChief market strategist, Carson Group | Bullish | The Compound | No recession visible with economy growing ~1.5%, forward S&P earnings at all-time record $281/share, profit… |
| 2025-07-10 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | Master Investor | The US market is at its highest valuation in history by serious measures, comparable only to 1929, 2000, and… |
| 2025-07-10 | Raoul PalCo-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PM | Neutral | Forward Guidance | The S&P 500 only breaks even against the 8% fiat debasement rate, adding no real purchasing-power value… |
| 2025-07-10 | Michael DellChairman & CEO, Dell Technologies | Bullish | Bg2 Pod | AI-driven productivity gains will enable a large share of companies to compound earnings on a double-digit… |
| 2025-07-09 | Raoul PalCo-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PM | Neutral | Forward Guidance | The S&P 500 adjusted for global liquidity/fiat debasement produces essentially zero real return; in… |
| 2025-07-08 | Peter BoockvarCIO, OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners | Neutral | Wealthion | At ~24x earnings with a 1% dividend yield and the Mag 7 leadership splintering, the S&P 500 is mathematically… |
| 2025-07-04 | Marko PapicGeopolitical macro strategist | Bearish | WTFinance | The shift from a unipolar to multipolar world requires portfolio outflows from the US as the current account… |
| 2025-07-03 | Kevin GrimesCEO & CIO, Grimes & Company | Bullish | Wealthion | The 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day (golden cross) signals momentum has turned positive and… |
| 2025-07-01 | Michael OliverFounder, Momentum Structural Analysis | Bearish | Wealthion | Long-term momentum structure broke in January and the current rally to new highs is a widening-top trap —… |
| 2025-06-30 | Joe DavisGlobal Chief Economist, Vanguard | Bearish | The Compound | US debt is projected to reach record highs (171% debt-to-GDP per CBO) with a credible fiscal-pressure… |
| 2025-06-27 | Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | $1.4 trillion in annual corporate buybacks mechanically removes float every year while passive flow price… |
| 2025-06-27 | Andy SchwartzCo-Founder & Managing Partner, Bleakley Financial Group | Bullish | Wealthion | Non-US equities are not trading at record highs unlike the S&P 500, making them reasonable entry points… |
| 2025-06-25 | Steve HankeProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University | Bearish | Wealthion | Hanke's bubble detector is flashing a signal not seen since the 2001 dot-com peak; the bubble must eventually… |
| 2025-06-24 | Simon HuntFounder, Simon Hunt Strategic Services | Bearish | Wealthion | S&P is at a critical inflection point where geopolitical escalation and stagflation will trigger at least a… |
| 2025-06-18 | Nassim TalebAuthor; advisor, Universa Investments | Short | Bloomberg Podcasts | Elevated uncertainty from US fiscal deterioration and irrational policy (tariffs, immigration) justifies… |
| 2025-06-16 | Henrik ZebergHead Macroeconomist, Swissblock | Bullish | Wealthion | $4.5T in global M2 expansion this year is fueling a liquidity-driven blow-off top to at least 6,800 before… |
| 2025-06-13 | Jeffrey MillerPortfolio Manager, Incline Investment Advisors | Bullish | Wealthion | Double-digit S&P earnings growth and margin expansion underpin US equity valuations, and… |
| 2025-06-11 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Forward PE is higher today than at the February all-time high because earnings estimates have been cut while… |
| 2025-06-09 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bearish | Wealthion | Forward P/E of 21 is pricing in a near-zero risk-free rate while cash pays 4.5% — the equity risk premium is… |
| 2025-06-06 | Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | A structural buyback machine ($717B YTD, ~$1.5T annualized run rate), persistent passive 401k inflows, and… |
| 2025-06-05 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bearish | Wealthion | Equity and credit markets have priced in zero recession probability despite the Fed's own Beige Book showing… |
| 2025-06-03 | Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR Capital | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | US stock valuations are 'pretty bad' while price trend momentum has weakened, causing the combined timing… |
| 2025-05-30 | Peter BoockvarCIO, OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners | Bearish | Wealthion | S&P 500 trading near 23x 2025 earnings estimates puts valuations in the upper historical echelon, implying… |
| 2025-05-28 | David CervantesFounder, Pinebrook Capital Management | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Massive fiscal deficit (7-8% of GDP) inoculates the economy from recession, and tax-cut extensions add… |
| 2025-05-28 | Edward DowdFounding Partner, Phinance Technologies | Bearish | Wealthion | The post-April rally is a counter-trend bounce off an AI-bubble burst and tariff shock, valuations remain… |
| 2025-05-22 | Kevin MuirIndependent trader — The Macro Tourist | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Fiscal deficits running ~20% above the prior year are the dominant market force — not Fed policy — and until… |
| 2025-05-16 | Scott SchwartzPrincipal, OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners | Neutral | Wealthion | International equities remain significantly cheaper than US equities even after the recent recovery, with… |
| 2025-05-15 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bullish | Forward Guidance | US fiscal math requires equities to rise 10–20% annually to generate sufficient capital gains tax receipts… |
| 2025-05-15 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | interview | Total market cap-to-GDP and similar long-horizon valuation metrics put the US market at or above historical… |
| 2025-05-14 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bullish | Forward Guidance | US fiscal math requires equities to rise 10–20% annually to generate sufficient capital-gains tax receipts… |
| 2025-05-12 | Mohnish PabraiFund manager — Pabrai Investment Funds | Bearish | interview | Both the MAG-7 and the remaining 493 S&P constituents are trading significantly above historical valuation… |
| 2025-05-08 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | A secular investment/capex boom driven by AI and productivity gains will attract sustained FDI and portfolio… |
| 2025-05-07 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Bearish | TorontoWealthGroup | Tariffs act as the largest tax increase since the 1960s reducing growth by 2-3%, while the Fed remains locked… |
| 2025-05-01 | Bob ElliottCEO & CIO, Unlimited Funds | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Foreign investors are withdrawing capital from US equities faster than the current account deficit shrinks… |
| 2025-04-26 | Danny DayanCIO, DWD Partners | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Tactically long while headlines trend toward de-escalation, but only as a rental — structural headwinds from… |
| 2025-04-25 | Rebecca Patterson (strategist, ex-Bridgewater)Former chief strategist, Bridgewater | Bearish | The Compound | 75% recession probability driven by tariff-induced consumer purchasing-power hit, with earnings deterioration… |
| 2025-04-25 | Danny DayanCIO, DWD Partners | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Trade war temperature being taken down creates a tactical bounce opportunity as incremental headlines turn… |
| 2025-04-24 | Brad GerstnerFounder & CEO, Altimeter Capital | Bearish | Bg2 Pod | Consensus S&P earnings estimates have barely budged (only ~3% cut to $265/share) despite widespread CEO… |
| 2025-04-23 | Jesse FelderAuthor, The Felder Report | Bearish | Wealthion | At ~25x trailing earnings vs. the historical 15x average, forward earnings estimates haven't priced in a… |
| 2025-04-16 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bearish | Oaktree Capital | At current PE ratios, historical data shows S&P returns of minus 2% to 2% over a decade, making equities… |
| 2025-04-16 | Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | Buying US equities when they are down 15% from peak has produced positive returns 83% of the time at one year… |
| 2025-04-16 | Mel Mattison | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Persistent fiscal deficits drive nominal GDP growth and a depreciating dollar inflates the 50% of S&P… |
| 2025-04-10 | Julien GarranPartner, The MacroStrategy Partnership | Bearish | Wealthion | A confluence of peak valuations, high leverage, antitrust pressure on big-tech earnings, rising savings… |
| 2025-04-09 | Darius DaleFounder & CEO, 42 Macro | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Trump's structural shift from globalization to deglobalization will compress capital's share of national… |
| 2025-04-09 | Ben CarlsonDirector of institutional AM, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | Scary markets provide opportunities for long-term wealth building; continuing systematic purchases across… |
| 2025-04-09 | Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | VIX spiking above 45 historically produces positive S&P returns 82-92% of the time at 6-12 months out, and… |
| 2025-04-05 | Kyle BassFounder/CIO, Hayman Capital | Bullish | TorontoWealthGroup | Forced volatility selling and VAR-model deleveraging have driven markets down 13-17% YTD, but there is an… |
| 2025-04-04 | Josh Brown (Ritholtz)CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management | Bearish | The Compound | The S&P 500 has more downside before a durable bottom because the tariffs are literal (not a negotiating… |
| 2025-04-04 | Larry McdonaldFounder, The Bear Traps Report | Bearish | Wealthion | US recession driven by high interest costs, tariff headwinds, and consumer slowdown will compress earnings… |
| 2025-04-02 | Larry McdonaldFounder, The Bear Traps Report | Bearish | Wealthion | Real S&P 500 earnings are ~$230 not the street's $270 consensus per CFO guidance, and at a… |
| 2025-03-31 | Jacob Miller | Bearish | The Compound | Large-cap US index companies face the most pain from tariffs because they have the highest overseas sales… |
| 2025-03-25 | Joseph WangCIO, Monetary Macro | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Trade policy disruption in 2025 is materially more severe than 2018, making a 10% correction just the… |
| 2025-03-20 | John RubinoAuthor & Newsletter, JohnRubino.Substack.com | Bearish | Wealthion | US stocks are more richly valued than the 2000 tech bubble peak while the underlying economy carries far more… |
| 2025-03-14 | Barry RitholtzCo-Founder & CIO, Ritholtz Wealth Management | Bullish | Masters in Business | The real AI upside is the other 493 S&P 500 companies that will each adopt AI for productivity and profit… |
| 2025-03-13 | David IbenCIO, Kopernik Global Investors | Short | Wealthion | US stocks sit at their highest-ever valuations on most metrics — priced for 'American exceptionalism' — while… |
| 2025-03-12 | Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | The current selloff is a historically normal mid-year correction inside a secular bull market — historically… |
| 2025-03-12 | Vincent DeluardGlobal Macro Strategist, StoneX | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Simultaneous fiscal tightening (state/local spending rolling over from 10%+ growth to contraction, tariffs as… |
| 2025-03-08 | Scott SchwartzPrincipal, OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners | Bearish | Wealthion | Non-US equities were trading at nearly half the P/E of US large-caps after years of underperformance and are… |
| 2025-03-08 | Tony GreerFounder, TG Macro | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Sentiment indicators are at historic bearish extremes, hedge funds have made the largest short sales ever in… |
| 2025-03-07 | Steve HankeProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University | Bearish | Wealthion | Hanke's 'bubble detector' — stocks-vs-bonds relative valuation — is at an all-time high, a level historically… |
| 2025-03-03 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | Investors are treating a growth scare as a crisis, mispricing the risk, and the market has priced in a lot of… |
| 2025-03-03 | Chamath PalihapitiyaFounder, Social Capital | Bearish | All-In Podcast | Tariffs plus slowing immigration plus DOGE austerity will slow US GDP growth from ~2.5% to ~1.5% in H2… |
| 2025-02-28 | Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Market declines destroy collateral and liquidity, triggering recession in a reflexive loop; the Trump admin… |
| 2025-02-26 | Andy ConstanFounder & Macro Strategist, Damped Spring Advisors | Short | Forward Guidance | Growth deceleration will compress the earnings numerator while elevated term premium keeps the discount rate… |
| 2025-02-26 | Andy LeesFounder, Macrostrategy Partnership | Bearish | Wealthion | US equities are at extreme overvaluation and the three sequential drivers of the bull market — post-COVID… |
| 2025-02-15 | Scott SchwartzPrincipal, OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners | Bearish | Wealthion | International equities trade at materially lower multiples than US Mag 7 and are starting to lead as… |
| 2025-02-14 | David EinhornFounder, Greenlight Capital | Bearish | SKAGEN Fondene | The US equity market is at historically extreme valuations with near-zero risk premium versus government… |
| 2025-02-07 | David GirouxHead of Investment Strategy & CIO Multi-Asset, T. Rowe Price | Bearish | The Compound | Company-by-company 5-year DCF analysis targeting 2030 prices yields a forward total return below 5% annually… |
| 2025-02-06 | Ray DalioFounder, Bridgewater Associates | Bearish | Peter H. Diamandis | US assets are priced to outperform all other countries, creating a high hurdle rate; at current valuations… |
| 2025-02-05 | Jim ChanosShort seller — Chanos & Co (family office) | Bullish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Since the GameStop episode the most-shorted stocks (highly speculative, dicey companies) have continued to… |
| 2025-02-05 | Jonathan WellumCEO & CIO, RockLinc Investment Partners | Bearish | Wealthion | Tariff-driven earnings headwinds on the ~40% of S&P revenues earned overseas, combined with stretched… |
| 2025-01-31 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Market-cap-weighted SPY is at stretched valuations (~25x PE) while Russell 2000 is full of low-quality names… |
| 2025-01-24 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Neutral | Forward Guidance | After back-to-back 25%+ years, it is hard to make the case for multiple expansion from current valuations, so… |
| 2025-01-24 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bullish | Wealthion | Mandatory 401k auto-enrollment defaults new workers into passive Target Date Funds that mechanically buy the… |
| 2025-01-17 | Sven HenrichFounder, NorthmanTrader | Bearish | Wealthion | Market is highly concentrated with historically extreme valuations and reverse-repo liquidity about to run… |
| 2025-01-15 | Chris VermeulenFounder & Chief Investment Strategist, The Technical Traders | Bearish | Wealthion | Multiple asset classes (SPX, gold, Bitcoin) simultaneously hit their 100% Fibonacci measured-move targets in… |
| 2025-01-14 | Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth Management | Bearish | Wealthion | Market is historically expensive on price-to-sales (3.1x) and Shiller PE, Mag 7 concentration in index… |
| 2025-01-10 | James LavishCo-Managing Partner, Bitcoin Opportunity Fund | Bullish | Wealthion | True inflation equals money supply expansion at ~7% annually since the Nixon shock, so staying invested in… |
| 2025-01-10 | Anthony ScaramucciFounder, SkyBridge Capital | Bullish | Wealthion | Systematic monthly DCA into the broad market index since 1989 has reliably compounded wealth through all… |
| 2025-01-09 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bullish | Walker & Dunlop | Incoming Trump administration deregulation and productivity-enhancing technology investment will ultimately… |
| 2025-01-09 | Ben CarlsonDirector of institutional AM, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | It is too early to end the AI spending cycle; companies will keep investing and the market could extend into… |
| 2025-01-08 | Jonny MatthewsSenior Portfolio Manager, Fortem Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | At 22x forward earnings requiring 14.8% EPS growth, the index needs everything to go right while the multiple… |
| 2025-01-07 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bearish | Wealthion | Consumption is increasingly driven by a wealth effect concentrated in the top 10-20% of income… |
| 2025-01-03 | Brian WesburyChief Economist, First Trust Advisors | Bearish | The Compound | His capitalized profits model — corporate profits discounted by the 10-year yield — shows the market is… |
| 2025-01-02 | Jonathan WellumCEO & CIO, RockLinc Investment Partners | Neutral | Wealthion | US equity valuations at 23-24x earnings are the richest they have ever been, so a third consecutive 20%+ year… |
| 2024-12-30 | Jesse FelderAuthor, The Felder Report | Bearish | Wealthion | The momentum factor is at 1999/2021-level extremes—historically a strong predictor of 12-month S&P 500… |
| 2024-12-27 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Wealthion | AI-driven earnings expansion combined with a prime-age workforce surge from Millennials and Gen Z—two… |
| 2024-12-27 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bearish | Wealthion | Equity risk premium has collapsed from 40bp to ~10bp as markets price in massive tax cuts that are unlikely… |
| 2024-12-26 | Steve HankeProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University | Bearish | Wealthion | S&P at ~5900-6000 is ~25% overpriced because tariff drag, active war escalation (Ukraine/Russia long-range… |
| 2024-12-25 | Chris VermeulenFounder & Chief Investment Strategist, The Technical Traders | Bullish | Wealthion | Post-correction Fibonacci 618 extension sets up a measured move to ~6,000, with the July-August shakeout… |
| 2024-12-24 | Marc FaberEditor, Gloom Boom & Doom Report | Bearish | Wealthion | Real inflation has been systematically understated for decades, meaning real GDP is actually contracting and… |
| 2024-12-20 | Sven CarlinFounder, Sven Carlin Research Platform | Bearish | Wealthion | US equities at P/E 30 — second-most-expensive in history — offer only a 1% yield against a 50% crash risk if… |
| 2024-12-20 | Nick ColasCo-Founder, DataTrek Research | Bullish | The Compound | VIX at 27.6 is exactly one standard deviation from the long-term mean and historically the last two times VIX… |
| 2024-12-18 | Joseph WangCIO, Monetary Macro | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Foreign investors hold a near-doubled, historically stretched position in US stocks with almost no FX hedging… |
| 2024-12-17 | Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors | Bullish | Wealthion | End-of-year options roll-off creates structural dealer buying, compressing downside skew and lifting the… |
| 2024-12-13 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Bullish | The Compound | Nominal GDP running near 4.5-5% makes 15% equity returns achievable without heroic assumptions, with tech and… |
| 2024-12-12 | Jesse FelderAuthor, The Felder Report | Bearish | Wealthion | The insider sell-to-buy ratio exceeds 25 — a level last seen in late 2021 just before the 2022 earnings… |
| 2024-12-03 | Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR Capital | Neutral | Bloomberg Television | 85% of US equity outperformance vs. global peers has come from multiple expansion rather than fundamentals… |
| 2024-12-03 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Wealthion | AI-driven productivity gains and economic resilience support a multi-year bull market regardless of policy… |
| 2024-11-29 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Wealthion | S&P earnings could reach $600–$650 by 2030 driven by AI lifting technology-sector earnings (which command… |
| 2024-11-27 | Ron WilliamFounder & Market Strategist, RW Advisory | Bearish | Wealthion | S&P 500 is in an overheated five-wave momentum pattern at the 6,000 psychological resistance level, with… |
| 2024-11-26 | Jason TrennertChairman & CEO, Strategas Research Partners | Bullish | Wealthion | Near-term earnings growth (high single digits) and Trump win supporting capital formation keep equities… |
| 2024-11-23 | Steve HankeProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University | Bearish | Wealthion | S&P at 5,900-6,000 is roughly 25% overvalued because markets have not priced in tariff drag on growth… |
| 2024-11-22 | Meb FaberCo-founder & CIO, Cambria | Neutral | Lead-Lag Media | US large-cap is historically expensive at ~38x CAPE but trend remains up, so a short call is premature… |
| 2024-11-21 | Steve HankeProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University | Bearish | Wealthion | M2 money supply has contracted and is now growing at only 2.6% vs the ~6% needed to hit the Fed's 2% target… |
| 2024-11-18 | Nelson PeltzActivist investor — Trian Partners | Bearish | CNBC Events | Post-election euphoria has driven equities to fully valued levels and the rally is unlikely to continue… |
| 2024-11-16 | Adam JohnsonFounder & Portfolio Manager, Bullseye Investment Group | Bullish | Wealthion | GDP is growing at 2.5-3% with earnings growth of 8-10% accelerating to 10-12% next year, and the Trump… |
| 2024-11-15 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bearish | Wealthion | Forward P/E at 22x with equity risk premium collapsed to ~10-30bps is 'stupid expensive' — valuations are at… |
| 2024-11-14 | Adam JohnsonFounder & Portfolio Manager, Bullseye Investment Group | Bullish | Wealthion | S&P 500 earnings accelerating to $280–285 in 2025 (10–12% growth) at a 22–23x PE supports a near-term rally… |
| 2024-11-12 | George RobertsonAuthor, The Monetary Frontier | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Absent effective monetary policy combined with persistent ~$3.5T annual fiscal spend has put nominal GDP on a… |
| 2024-11-11 | Justin Nugent | Bullish | Wealthion | Two nested monthly bull flags on SPY with measured moves converging at 609, combined with Fed rate-cut… |
| 2024-11-08 | Katie StocktonTechnical strategist — Fairlead | Bearish | The Compound | The monthly S&P 500 chart shows a DeMark sequential 13 exhaustion count and a peaking MACD histogram… |
| 2024-11-08 | Bob ElliottCEO & CIO, Unlimited Funds | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Elevated valuations are irrelevant while easy monetary and fiscal policy persists — historically, bubbles… |
| 2024-11-06 | Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Structural options flows—charm, vanna, and structured product unwind from record structured product issuance… |
| 2024-11-04 | Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth Management | Bearish | Wealthion | Markets are complacent but the US may already be in recession with cracks likely to emerge in corporate… |
| 2024-11-01 | Marko PapicGeopolitical macro strategist | Bullish | Lead-Lag Media | US equities can still rise but will likely underperform other regions as fiscal tailwinds peak and bond… |
| 2024-10-29 | Jurrien TimmerDirector of Global Macro, Fidelity Investments | Bullish | Forward Guidance | The cyclical and secular bull market remains intact in the seventh inning, with earnings still growing and… |
| 2024-10-25 | Jason CalacanisAngel investor | Bullish | All-In Podcast | Regardless of election outcome, $10T in additional government spending will flow into asset markets rather… |
| 2024-10-19 | Michael NicoletosFounder & CEO, DeFi Advisors | Bullish | Wealthion | Accelerating global liquidity — Fed cuts, ECB cuts, and Chinese stimulus — flows disproportionately into US… |
| 2024-10-18 | Warren PiesCo-founder, 3Fourteen Research | Bullish | The Compound | A momentum thrust (19% 63-day return coming out of a bear market with negative sentiment) has historically… |
| 2024-10-18 | Michael NicoletosFounder & CEO, DeFi Advisors | Bullish | Wealthion | An unprecedented pace of global liquidity injection — from the Fed, ECB, and China — flows disproportionately… |
| 2024-10-16 | Tony GreerFounder, TG Macro | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Cyclicals, financials, industrials, and technology are all breaking out simultaneously — a broad-based bull… |
| 2024-10-16 | Janet Mui | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | US mega-caps have the world's best companies exposed to structural AI growth stories, and investors rotate… |
| 2024-10-12 | Christopher VermeulenFounder & Chief Investment Strategist, The Technical Traders | Bullish | Wealthion | August volatility cleansed the market and re-energized buyers; Fibonacci extension off the July–August… |
| 2024-10-11 | Nassim TalebAuthor; advisor, Universa Investments | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | Markets are at peak fragility due to extreme valuations built on AI hope, complacency after prolonged… |
| 2024-10-08 | Chris VermeulenFounder & Chief Investment Strategist, The Technical Traders | Bullish | Wealthion | Post-August correction cleansed the market and re-energized momentum; Fibonacci extension off the pullback… |
| 2024-10-05 | Geo ChenAuthor, Fidenza Macro | Bullish | Wealthion | The Fed pledging to cut rates as needed while the economy is not in recession is one of the most historically… |
| 2024-10-03 | Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth Management | Bearish | Wealthion | The broad market carries outsized risk from election uncertainty, potential tax legislation changes, and… |
| 2024-09-30 | James AitkenFounder, Aitken Advisors | Bullish | Hidden Forces | If asset prices rose 30%+ during allegedly 'restrictive' monetary policy with fiscal deficits at 6-7% of GDP… |
| 2024-09-28 | Tavi CostaPartner, Crescat Capital | Bearish | Wealthion | US equities are highly overvalued on the CAPE ratio while the yield curve is steepening from one of the… |
| 2024-09-27 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | The Compound | In every historical instance where the Fed cut rates without a recession (7 of 7 episodes), stocks were never… |
| 2024-09-26 | Daniel LacalleChief Economist & CIO, Tressis | Bullish | Wealthion | The scale of fiscal imbalances makes central banks almost inevitably accommodative going forward, so markets… |
| 2024-09-23 | Bill NygrenPortfolio manager, Oakmark Funds | Bearish | CNBC Television | The S&P 500 is far less diversified than investors assume, with ~4-5 mega-cap tech names individually larger… |
| 2024-09-21 | Vincent DeluardGlobal Macro Strategist, StoneX | Bullish | Wealthion | 50bp rate cut with 3% real GDP growth, near-record-low unemployment, and likely post-election fiscal… |
| 2024-09-19 | Vincent DeluardGlobal Macro Strategist, StoneX | Bullish | Wealthion | Fed cutting 50bps while real GDP grows at 3% and inflation sits above target creates an unusually permissive… |
| 2024-09-18 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bullish | Wealthion | Global liquidity cycle that troughed October 2022 is still rising and not expected to peak until late 2025, a… |
| 2024-09-13 | Jurrien TimmerDirector of Global Macro, Fidelity Investments | Bullish | The Compound | The low-vol high-div index offers a 4.4% dividend yield, has built a massive multi-year base, and is now… |
| 2024-09-11 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bearish | Oxbow Advisors | Negative net national savings, deteriorating demographics, fiscal dominance, and declining real per capita… |
| 2024-09-07 | Adam JohnsonFounder & Portfolio Manager, Bullseye Investment Group | Bullish | Wealthion | Forward EPS of roughly $275 on a still-justified 22x multiple yields an S&P 500 target near 6,200 — about 10%… |
| 2024-09-06 | Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago Capital | Bearish | Wealthion | US equities are in an unsustainable bubble at all-time highs with rate cuts already priced in, making a… |
| 2024-09-05 | Cathie WoodCEO & CIO, ARK Invest | Bearish | ARK Invest | The ratio of the highest market-cap US stock to the 75th-percentile stock is at 800—above the 1932 Great… |
| 2024-09-04 | Eric WallersteinChief Macro Strategist, Clocktower Group | Bullish | Forward Guidance | US productivity gains from AI and tech, an economy less sensitive to interest rates dominated by cash-rich… |
| 2024-09-04 | Adam JohnsonFounder & Portfolio Manager, Bullseye Investment Group | Bullish | Wealthion | GDP growth, 10-11% earnings growth to $275 EPS, falling inflation, and rate cuts justify a 22x multiple… |
| 2024-08-31 | Marc FaberEditor, Gloom Boom & Doom Report | Bearish | Wealthion | Real inflation far exceeds government-reported CPI, making real GDP negative; with the consumer struggling… |
| 2024-08-29 | Marc FaberEditor, Gloom Boom & Doom Report | Bearish | Wealthion | The financial asset bubble has grown to dwarf the real economy, and history (e.g. Dow flat 1964–1982 but down… |
| 2024-08-27 | Jeremy SchwartzGlobal CIO, WisdomTree | Bullish | Forward Guidance | US stocks trade at ~20x earnings (5% earnings yield), carry a ~3% equity premium over TIPS, and function as… |
| 2024-08-24 | Jared DillianAuthor, The Daily Dirtnap | Bearish | Wealthion | Powell is a hawk who wants more inflation progress before cutting; his Jackson Hole speech will be hawkish… |
| 2024-08-21 | Capital FlowsFounder, Capital Flows Research | Bullish | Forward Guidance | GDP is positive while the Fed is beginning a rate-cutting cycle — the opposite of 2022 — making a persistent… |
| 2024-08-19 | Jessica RabeCo-Founder, DataTrek Research | Bullish | The Compound | Historical pattern shows S&P 500 peaks in Q4 70% of the time since 1980 and in December 50% of the time, and… |
| 2024-08-14 | Peter BoockvarCIO, OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners | Bearish | Wealthion | Early-July highs likely mark the index peak for 2024 as AI megacaps face earnings scrutiny, rate-cut optimism… |
| 2024-08-12 | Mel Mattison | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Structural passive fund flows from automatic payroll deductions create a perpetual marginal buyer that… |
| 2024-08-12 | George RobertsonAuthor, The Monetary Frontier | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Fiscal deficit spending remains at historically high levels while the Fed has effectively disconnected from… |
| 2024-08-10 | Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices)Co-host, MacroVoices & Market Huddle | Short | Marko Papic | The July 2024 high is likely the cycle high as the AI/mag-7 narrative deflates, Yen carry trade unwind… |
| 2024-08-08 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | The Investor’s Podcast | Hussman's most predictive valuation measure places the US market above both its 1929 and December 2021… |
| 2024-08-07 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Wealthion | Roaring 2020s productivity boom from technology adoption will drive S&P 500 earnings to ~$400/share by… |
| 2024-08-02 | Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | VIX term-structure inversion (spot over 3-month) is one of the most reliable short-term contra indicators… |
| 2024-08-02 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Passive inflows that artificially propped markets are turning negative as unemployment rises from years of… |
| 2024-08-01 | Danny DayanCIO, DWD Partners | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Bond market's dovish pricing creates a floor under equity valuations and equities remain the only asset class… |
| 2024-06-14 | Darius DaleFounder & CEO, 42 Macro | Bullish | Kris Sidial | Their market regime model has been in a risk-on condition since November 2023, and 83% of the S&P 500's… |
| 2024-05-23 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Equal-weighting the 500 largest US companies by revenue avoids momentum concentration risk present in… |
| 2024-05-17 | Mohnish PabraiFund manager — Pabrai Investment Funds | Bullish | My First Million | For over 99% of people, low-cost index funds (e.g. Vanguard ETFs) are the optimal vehicle because frictional… |
| 2024-04-05 | Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR Capital | Bearish | The Meb Faber Show | Roughly 80% of US equity outperformance over the past 30 years came from valuation re-rating vs. non-US… |
| 2024-03-26 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Deep US retirement system continuously channels long-term savings into domestic equities, supporting a… |
| 2024-03-25 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Economy is growing while inflation moderates and the Fed put appears to be reinstated, supporting continued… |
| 2024-02-14 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bullish | CNBC Television | US equities can continue to climb even without Fed rate cuts because of strong earnings, a resilient domestic… |
| 2024-01-03 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | Real Economics | The US market is still deflating from the 2021 super bubble, with profit margins and earnings yet to decline… |
| 2023-12-22 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Rolling recoveries across housing, retail goods, and manufacturing—combined with chronic… |
| 2023-12-20 | Warren BuffettChairman, Berkshire Hathaway | Bullish | OnefootHurdle | Over many decades owning a cross-section of productive American businesses has overwhelmingly outperformed… |
| 2023-12-19 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Resource Talks | The narrow mega-cap-led rally began broadening on November 13, 2023, with equal-weighted S&P 500… |
| 2023-11-28 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Neutral | Mark Moss | Competing forces of high interest rates and large fiscal deficits are roughly balanced, producing range-bound… |
| 2023-10-24 | Bill NygrenPortfolio manager, Oakmark Funds | Bullish | Millennial Investing | The ratio of the 50th most expensive to the 50th cheapest S&P 500 stock by PE is ~7x versus a 33-year average… |
| 2023-10-18 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | US stocks have gone from cheap relative to bonds 18 months ago to four times more expensive on a relative… |
| 2023-10-02 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | CNBC Television | Earnings estimates for 2024 are rising as profit margins improve and the rolling recession fades, supporting… |
| 2023-09-22 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | The Compound | US large-cap equities trade at a Shiller PE of ~29x versus the 100-year model's call of 16.8x — approximately… |
| 2023-09-19 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | A productivity boom driven by the 2020s recovery, strong earnings growth, and an economy already… |
| 2023-09-18 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Short | Bloomberg Television | Sticky inflation, rising oil prices, and central banks not done hiking create conditions for a ~10% decline… |
| 2023-09-06 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | David Rubenstein | The slow-moving impact of Fed rate hikes will torpedo the economy into a recession extending deep into 2024… |
| 2023-09-05 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | David Rubenstein | The 2021 bubble is still deflating and a recession extending deep into 2024 will compress profit margins and… |
| 2023-09-03 | Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago Capital | Bullish | Brent Johnson Milkshakes Pod | Investing • Finance | Capital fleeing Europe, Asia, Australia, and EM will treat US stocks as a refuge from the global storm… |
| 2023-08-18 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | Rising interest rates depress real estate and deflate post-bubble asset prices, which Grantham expects to… |
| 2023-08-16 | Bill NygrenPortfolio manager, Oakmark Funds | Bullish | Morningstar, Inc. | The valuation spread between the cheapest and most expensive S&P 500 deciles is ~60% wider than the 30-year… |
| 2023-08-10 | Joe Terranova (Virtus)Chief market strategist, Virtus | Bearish | Bill Nygren | Rally attempts over the last 10 days have been consistently met with sellers and reversed intraday… |
| 2023-08-05 | Patrick BoyleFinance professor; ex-hedge fund manager | Bullish | interview | Investors concerned about extreme market-cap concentration in the S&P 500 may get better diversification from… |
| 2023-06-30 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Strong US fiscal spending driving onshoring and infrastructure creates a supportive backdrop for equities… |
| 2023-06-12 | Chris BloomstranPresident & CIO, Semper Augustus Investments | Bearish | Behind the Balance Sheet | Profit margins of 13.3% are artificially elevated by ~3pts from cheap corporate debt and ~1pt from the 2017… |
| 2023-06-06 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | Bullish on equities unless S&P exceeds ~33x forward earnings (~7900) or a recession materializes and cuts… |
| 2023-06-05 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | Companies that survived COVID, supply chain disruptions, and massive inflation without going bankrupt deserve… |
| 2023-06-01 | Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR Capital | Bearish | David Rubenstein | Equity markets are pricing in a benign soft-landing while bond markets are pricing in multiple severe rate… |
| 2023-06-01 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bearish | Ivey Business School | At ~19x P/E versus a 16x post-war average, with a 5.5% earnings yield that does not clear current inflation… |
| 2023-05-23 | Mohnish PabraiFund manager — Pabrai Investment Funds | Bullish | interview | Owning a diversified index ensures exposure to the rare outlier compounders like Walmart and Costco without… |
| 2023-05-18 | Joel GreenblattCo-CIO, Gotham Asset Management | Bullish | The Hedge Fund Association | The S&P 500 is at the 23rd percentile toward expensive by Gotham's metrics, implying sub-normal but still… |
| 2023-05-15 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Bullish | CNBC Television | Inflation has been declining for 12 straight months, the Fed is done hiking, and the financial cycle (rising… |
| 2023-03-02 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | The stock market has been in a protracted bear market since Q4 2021, and real interest rates — which paused… |
| 2023-02-23 | Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR Capital | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | The overall US stock market is no longer in a bubble but remains very expensive versus history, and is priced… |
| 2023-01-31 | Jim ChanosShort seller — Chanos & Co (family office) | Short | Jeremy Lefebvre Makes Money | The S&P at 18x forward earnings with margins at all-time highs is vulnerable because no bear market in… |
| 2023-01-30 | Host WallstreetwindowHost, WallStreetWindow | Bullish | Jeremy Grantham | Market internals turned up in October 2022, signaling the start of a cyclical bull market within a secular… |
| 2023-01-30 | Michael SwansonFounder, WallStreetWindow | Bullish | Jeremy Grantham | Improving market internals in fall 2022 signal a genuine cyclical bull market beginning, supported by… |
| 2023-01-18 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | Equity markets are currently pricing in significant optimism around a soft landing and Fed pivot, which Marks… |
| 2023-01-06 | Bill MillerFounder, Miller Value Partners (retired) | Bullish | CNBC Television | After the 2022 selloff, valuations are cheap enough that a random selection of stocks is likely to do well… |
| 2023-01-03 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Bearish | Peter McCormack | After 2022's valuation compression, 2023 will see the second shoe drop — actual earnings weakness — putting… |
| 2022-12-11 | Michael BurryFounder, Scion Asset Management | Short | Ticker Symbol: YOU | S&P 500 remains overvalued with earnings compression still ahead for big tech and the broader market, with… |
| 2022-12-10 | Michael BurryFounder, Scion Asset Management | Short | New Money | Burry's tweet 'you have no idea how short I am' and low 13F equity exposure (~26% of estimated capital… |
| 2022-11-09 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | ForexAnalytix | A disorderly spike in Treasury yields triggered by the structural deficit funding gap would force risk-off… |
| 2022-11-03 | Carl IcahnActivist investor — Icahn Enterprises | Short | Forbes | Inflation is structural and persistent, corporate debt taken on at cheap rates must now be refinanced at… |
| 2022-10-27 | Rob ArnottFounder & chairman, Research Affiliates | Bearish | Excess Returns | US stocks at a Shiller P/E of 27x — matching the October 2007 pre-financial-crisis peak — remain expensive… |
| 2022-09-13 | Kris SidialCo-CIO, Ambrus Group | Bearish | Chat With Traders | Sub-5-delta SPX puts and VIX-linked instruments produce convex 50x+ payouts in 30%-+ crash events, and the… |
| 2022-07-08 | Jim Laventhal Piper Sandler | Bullish | CNBC Halftime Committee | Rally is a relief bounce, not a new bull — aggressive Fed plus hot near-term inflation prints could retest… |
| 2022-06-27 | Benn EifertCo-founder & CIO, QVR Advisors | Neutral | Simplify Asset Management | Systematic covered-call and cash-secured-put selling programs have materially shrunk since 2020, removing the… |
| 2022-05-18 | Zoltan PozsarFounder, Ex Uno Plures; ex-Credit Suisse | Bearish | Young Scholars Initiative | The Fed is deliberately engineering reverse wealth effects to crush demand in a shortage economy, and markets… |
| 2022-04-27 | Chris BloomstranPresident & CIO, Semper Augustus Investments | Bearish | The Meb Faber Show | Decomposition of S&P 500 returns shows starting conditions of record 13.4% profit margins, mid-20s P/E, and… |
| 2022-04-26 | Meb FaberCo-founder & CIO, Cambria | Short | Excess Returns | US equities sit at historically extreme valuations (high CAPE) projecting near-zero real returns for the next… |
| 2022-04-10 | Chris BloomstranPresident & CIO, Semper Augustus Investments | Bearish | Preston Pysh | With profit margins at all-time highs (13.4%), PE at 23.6x, and dividend yield compressed to 1.3%, there is… |
| 2021-12-17 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | Midterm-year math and post-big-return-year historical returns point to an ~11% base case for 2022, with the… |
| 2021-10-22 | Dev KantesariaManaging partner, Valley Forge Capital | Bullish | Preston Pysh | The ~5% S&P 500 earnings yield vs. the 1.4-1.5% 10-year Treasury represents a historically wide spread… |
| 2021-06-28 | Jason Katz | Bullish | Fox Varney & Co | Fed is on hold for at least 18 months with no rate hike and taper not starting until late 2021/early 2022… |
| 2021-04-10 | Benn EifertCo-founder & CIO, QVR Advisors | Short | Flirting with Models | Overleveraged hedge funds and systematic programs that had been selling tail risk and suppressing deep OTM… |
| 2021-04-10 | Benn EifertCo-founder & CIO, QVR Advisors | Bullish | Flirting with Models | 30-delta S&P puts 2-3 months out represent the least crowded segment of the option-selling spectrum — still… |
| 2020-12-17 | Thomas Hayes | Bullish | Fox Claman Countdown | Fed holding short rates low through 2023, $120B/month in asset purchases, $900B fiscal bridge to full… |
| 2020-12-02 | Peter LynchFormer manager, Fidelity Magellan Fund | Bullish | NA | Corporate profits growing 7-8% annually (doubling every decade) make equities far superior to 10-year… |
| 2020-11-19 | Warren BuffettChairman, Berkshire Hathaway | Bullish | Investor Archive | Geopolitical crises including potential wars do not change the long-term value of productive businesses… |
| 2020-11-19 | Warren BuffettChairman, Berkshire Hathaway | Bullish | Investor Archive | US stocks are in a zone of reasonableness relative to current valuations and are clearly preferable to… |
| 2020-11-19 | Bill Gates | Bullish | Warren Buffett | Relative to prevailing interest rates, equities remain a bargain despite nominal all-time highs, because… |
| 2020-11-03 | Rob ArnottFounder & chairman, Research Affiliates | Bearish | Investment Innovation Institute [i3] | With the US Shiller PE in the low 30s—only exceeded at the 1929 peak and the apex of the tech bubble—forward… |
| 2020-03-30 | Benn EifertCo-founder & CIO, QVR Advisors | Neutral | The Alpha Exchange with Dean Curnutt | After the vol spike, forward-looking volatility risk premia are now materially higher, making notionally… |
| 2020-01-18 | Benn EifertCo-founder & CIO, QVR Advisors | Bullish | MH Highlights | Massive structural, price-insensitive selling by pension funds doing call overwriting and put underwriting… |
| 2019-09-24 | John BurbankFounder, Passport Capital | Bullish | Kyle Bass | In a risk-off deleveraging event driven by dollar strength and liquidity contraction, small caps suffer… |
| 2019-03-08 | Chris Cole (Artemis)Founder & CIO, Artemis Capital Management | Bullish | interview | Fed pivot away from rate hikes (Powell stopping hikes) has driven a sharp YTD rally with SPX running at… |
| 2017-06-20 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bearish | CNBC | Stock market's implied reflation/growth-reacceleration thesis is low-odds given disinflation data, weak GDP… |
| 2016-08-02 | Meb FaberCo-founder & CIO, Cambria | Neutral | Invest Like a Boss Podcast | US stocks are trading at a Shiller CAPE of ~25, above the historical average of 17, implying reduced future… |
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Notable options days
No notable options-tape days on SPY in the last
120 settled sessions (volume ≥ 2× or
delta-dollar flow ≥ 2.5× the trailing 20-session
baseline). Quiet is also information.