Stocks / ETF

SPYETF

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
$762.601d +1.1%5d +0.6%settled close · 2026-09-17
β 1.0052w $634–778Shares 989.8MNYSE Arca since 1993
The tape, with the calls on it

Who said what, and what SPY did next

Every dot is a day someone on the record made a call. Hover one to see who. We are not scoring them — the point is that you can see it and judge for yourself.

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Who’s talkingIdea Scout · free

Who’s talking about SPY

228 long25 neutral222 shortlatest 2026-09-11
DateVoiceStanceVenueThesis
2026-09-11Cameron DawsonCIO, NewEdge WealthNeutralBloomberg The CloseHigher secular yields compress multiples while earnings growth slows sharply in 2027 to half the 2026 rate…
2026-09-11Justin BergnerBearishCNBC Fast Money Final TradeThe backup in long-end yields justifies a much larger market pullback than the ~0.7% weekly decline seen, as…
2026-09-11David WooIndependent macro strategist (ex-BofA)ShortCapital AllocatorsEquity vol is cheap relative to the near-term tail risks (US-China AI escalation, Iran/Hormuz, Ukraine…
2026-09-10Venu KrishnaBullishBloomberg SurveillanceExceptional earnings durability — 31% growth expected, driven by AI capex supercycle augmented by energy…
2026-09-10Barry RitholtzCo-Founder & CIO, Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullishThe Big Picture (Ritholtz)30-year equity compounding builds far more capital than T-Bills for entrepreneurs without a near-term…
2026-09-10Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeSeptember should be an up month because elevated negative-seasonality fears and AI pessimism are contrarian…
2026-09-09Zeke AshtonShortThe Acquirers PodcastMarket is highly vulnerable given rampant speculation in leveraged ETFs and 0DTE options, extreme…
2026-09-09Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder CapitalNeutralTriangle InvestorRising bond yields compress P/E multiples but exceptionally strong earnings — especially in tech — offset…
2026-09-03Alli MccartneyBullishBloomberg The CloseBroad earnings growth of ~24% expected for 2026 with average company growing ~15% — breadth is not…
2026-09-02Chris BloomstranPresident & CIO, Semper Augustus InvestmentsBearishMOI GlobalThe index trades at 26x earnings with net margins near 12.8% — nearly double Buffett's postwar ceiling of…
Show all 475 mentions
DateVoiceStanceVenueThesis
2026-09-02David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg ResearchBearishDavid LinRising risk premia from a Fed hiking into a 1.5% growth, oil-shocked, AI-concentrated economy is compressing…
2026-09-01Scott ChronertBullishBloomberg Open InterestThe AI trade broadening into non-MAG7 S&P sectors combined with a Q3 earnings season catalyst and…
2026-08-31Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategistBullishEurodollar TalkEqual-weight S&P 500 provides broad equity participation while diffusing concentration risk in overbought…
2026-08-31David FriedbergCEO, Ohalo; co-host, All-InBullishJeremy GranthamThe S&P 500 historically returns 10-11% per year with no property tax, insurance, or maintenance costs…
2026-08-31Bob ElliottCEO & CIO, Unlimited FundsBearishBloomberg SurveillanceHigh nominal GDP is not a green light for equities because extraordinary expectations — 25% earnings growth…
2026-08-31Brooks CutrightBullishBloomberg ETF IQThere is a documented systematic price effect when stocks are added to the S&P 500; buying a…
2026-08-28Chris GalipeauSenior market strategist, Franklin TempletonBullishWealthionFull employment, rising consumer net worth, and corporate earnings beating consensus by ~100% in Q1 make the…
2026-08-24Nick ColasCo-Founder, DataTrek ResearchBearishThe CompoundCap-weighted S&P now has ~38-40% in tech that has shifted from returning cash to shareholders to a VC-like…
2026-08-24Julian EmanuelChief equity strategist, Evercore ISIBullishCNBC Fast Money Final TradeStructural tech-driven bull markets generate intense FOMO and capital-market surges—as seen in Y2K and…
2026-08-24Mebane FaberCIO & Co-Founder, Cambria Investment ManagementBearishMeb FaberUS CAPE ratio at ~40-43 is near the 1999 peak with dividend yield about to cross below 1%, and there is no…
2026-08-21Jenny Harrington (Gilman Hill)CEO, Gilman Hill Asset ManagementBullishCNBC Fast Money Final TradeQ3 earnings growth rates are mathematically predetermined and will be spectacular, making near-term catalysts…
2026-08-20Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTTBullishThe Monetary Matters NetworkIn an environment of Bessent-driven yield curve control, Treasury buybacks, and inflationary monetary…
2026-08-20Darius DaleFounder & CEO, 42 MacroBullishMacro VoicesFourth turnings historically deliver above-average equity returns driven by elevated nominal GDP and earnings…
2026-08-20Bill DudleyBearishBloomberg The CloseStretched valuations across three independent metrics — Shiller CAPE at 41 (near the Dec 1999 all-time high…
2026-08-17Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishWealthionBull market is earnings-led rather than valuation-led, with companies repeatedly beating expectations and…
2026-08-14Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTTBearishThe Meb Faber ShowUS equities at ~70% of global market cap echoes Japan at 50-60% in 1989; countries that still manufacture…
2026-08-13Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom Lee2027 earnings estimates are rising toward $425 from $395 at earnings-season start, and at a 20x multiple that…
2026-08-13Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder CapitalBearishMacro VoicesThe global liquidity cycle has peaked and is rolling over, and the setup is analogous to late 2021/early 2022…
2026-08-12Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishBloomberg PodcastsEarnings momentum (FIMO — fabulous earnings momentum) is driving the market higher with broad participation…
2026-08-12Darius DaleFounder & CEO, 42 MacroBullishForward GuidanceParadigm C (running the economy hot) drives bubble-like equity conditions supported by a risk-on reflation…
2026-08-11Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishWealthionBaby boomer generation holds ~$110T in net worth and is spending aggressively in retirement, combined with…
2026-08-11Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder CapitalNeutralThe Julia La Roche ShowLiquidity cycle peaked in Q3–Q4 2025, compressing PE multiples as rising yields lift the cost of capital even…
2026-08-10Cathie WoodCEO & CIO, ARK InvestBullishSwitzer ReportAI and the five major innovation platforms (robotics, energy storage, AI, blockchain, multi-omics) are…
2026-08-10Yie Hsin HungBullishBloomberg SurveillanceOverweight US equities first, emerging markets second, on the back of strong and broadening corporate…
2026-08-09Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago CapitalBullishBrent Johnson Milkshakes Pod | Investing • FinanceAs foreign sovereign bond yields rise and capital flees non-dollar debt, the milkshake theory predicts flows…
2026-08-07Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishThe CompoundNo recession through end of decade means fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) continues; at $43/share forward…
2026-08-06Steve HankeProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins UniversityBearishWealthionUS stock market is in a bubble by every valuation measure, and rising interest rates — driven by re-emerging…
2026-08-06Jeff SniderBearishMichael BurryLate credit cycle dynamics — rising junk spreads, fallen angels, repeated collateral fraud in private credit…
2026-08-03Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTTBearishThe Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred FrostBig tech and AI have become highly debt-financed and are valued at extremes in the largest equity market in…
2026-08-03Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco ResearchBullishWealthionNon-AI stocks have decoupled from the AI complex with correlation turning negative, outperformed AI stocks…
2026-08-02Mohnish PabraiFund manager — Pabrai Investment FundsBearishNew MoneyShiller PE at tech-bubble levels and extreme Mag-7 concentration make the index 'ridiculously overvalued,'…
2026-08-02Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility AdvisorsBullishReal VisionA 20% market decline destroys $50T of collateral — dwarfing all COVID QE — so government cannot allow it to…
2026-07-28Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, GavekalBearishLouis-Vincent GaveUS exceptionalism is empirically fading — US equities have underperformed EM by 22%, Europe by 12%, and Japan…
2026-07-28Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, GavekalBearishLouis-Vincent GaveUS equities have underperformed Europe by 12%, Japan by 17%, and EM by 22% since Trump's inauguration — and…
2026-07-24Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishBloomberg PodcastsEconomy continues to show resilience with no recession materializing, and fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO)…
2026-07-24Steven FeldmanCo-Founder & CEO, GBIBearishWealthionAt 40% weight in 10 AI-correlated companies, the S&P 500 is no longer a diversified index but a highly…
2026-07-24Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishBloomberg TelevisionYardeni keeps his personal portfolio mostly in ETFs tracking the S&P 500 because he believes in the market…
2026-07-20Jamie DimonChairman & CEO, JPMorgan ChaseBearishThe Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred FrostMarket is pricing in a good but not perfect outcome at elevated multiples that leave little margin for the…
2026-07-16Mark ThorntonSenior Fellow, Mises InstituteBearishWealthionThe US stock market is at its most extreme overvaluation in 150 years outside of 1927, and elevated leverage…
2026-07-15Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz WealthBullishThe CompoundStocks now constitute a larger share of US household net worth than real estate and are effectively too big…
2026-07-15Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRockBullishCNBC TelevisionThe AI-driven technological revolution will expand margins across a wide range of companies, supporting broad…
2026-07-11Vance Howard (Howard Capital)CEO, Howard Capital ManagementBullishFox BusinessS&P 500 broke out of a flag pattern with broad market breadth (60% of stocks above 200-day MA), signaling a…
2026-07-11Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom Lee2027 S&P earnings of $400 applied at 20x multiple justifies 8,000 target, and earnings growth is real — the…
2026-07-10Jim Cramer (CNBC)Host, CNBC's Mad MoneyBullishCNBC TelevisionAn S&P 500 index fund should form 50% of a portfolio as a hedge against mistakes in individual stock picking…
2026-07-09Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishCNBC TelevisionIran-driven market selloffs have historically been buying opportunities, as the Feb–April escalation period…
2026-07-09Ryan DetrickChief market strategist, Carson GroupBullishCNBC TelevisionNYSE advance/decline line hit an all-time high just 2 days ago and small/mid caps are leading, and market…
2026-07-08Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, SimplifyBearishMichael GreenUS equities are structurally overvalued as passive flows bid up prices without fundamental analysis, earnings…
2026-07-07Julian EmanuelChief equity strategist, Evercore ISIBullishBloomberg TelevisionOil returning below $70 from its war-driven spike is a profound disinflationary positive — historically the…
2026-07-07Mike WilsonChief US Equity Strategist, Morgan StanleyNeutralBloomberg TelevisionThe new Fed chair Kevin Walsh is reducing forward guidance, forcing markets to price uncertainty themselves…
2026-07-07Wei LiGlobal Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock Investment InstituteBullishBloomberg TelevisionThe combination of leading AI chips, leading AI models, energy independence, and the depth of US capital…
2026-07-06Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishCNBC TelevisionQ2 earnings will beat expectations again, compressing the market's PE further below its January level and…
2026-07-01Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishSoar FinanciallyEarnings-driven 'meltup' (FIMO — fabulous earnings momentum) fueled by a resilient economy, baby boomer…
2026-06-26Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishCNBC TelevisionUS equities remain overpriced by long-term valuation standards and have not yet been tested in a bear-market…
2026-06-26Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishCNBC TelevisionBy market-cap-to-GDP and other predictive valuation metrics, US equities are the most expensive in American…
2026-06-26Kevin SmithCIO, Crescat CapitalShortCNBC Closing Bell OvertimeRecord valuations, tight credit spreads, deteriorating breadth, and hawkish Fed create conditions for a…
2026-06-26Ryan DetrickChief market strategist, Carson GroupBullishThe CompoundThis bull market is only 3.5 years old versus a 7-year average for prior post-WWII cycles, market breadth…
2026-06-26Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder CapitalNeutralDavid LinAuthorities will prevent aggressive enough tightening to crash equities in 2026, producing a range-bound…
2026-06-25Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishThe Diary Of A CEOUS stocks are at the biggest investment bubble in history driven by AI euphoria, trading at 35-40x earnings…
2026-06-25Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom Lee2027 consensus EPS rose $48 YTD while the S&P's PE on those estimates actually contracted one turn (19.4 →…
2026-06-25Mohnish PabraiFund manager — Pabrai Investment FundsBearishinterviewAt a trailing PE of ~23x, historical data shows forward 10-year S&P returns have oscillated between -2% and…
2026-06-24Marc FaberEditor, Gloom Boom & Doom ReportBearishWealthionMarket breadth is historically narrow (only ~60% above 200-DMA vs 80% in a healthy bull), the rally is driven…
2026-06-24Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishNAUS equities have moved from 'spectacular' to 'even more spectacular' valuation, and historically high PEs…
2026-06-22Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU SternBullishBloomberg TelevisionAI-driven productivity surge powers equity returns regardless of Fed policy moves, with market discipline…
2026-06-22Tushar YadavaBullishBloomberg ETF IQEquities likely move higher by year-end as earnings remain strong, but BlackRock is trimming overweight…
2026-06-19Seth KlarmanCEO, Baupost GroupBearishMasters in BusinessA massive wave of large IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) plus employee monetization pressure and simultaneous…
2026-06-18Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishFox BusinessEarnings momentum (FIMO — fabulous earnings momentum) continues to accelerate, driving the index toward a…
2026-06-18Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishBloomberg PodcastsFabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) — not valuation multiple expansion — is driving the bull market, with…
2026-06-18Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine CapitalBearishDoubleLine CapitalNear-50% index concentration in 10 names combined with the funding burden of the AI capex cycle represents…
2026-06-17Joseph WangCIO, Monetary MacroBearishForward GuidanceConvergence of massive incoming equity supply (SpaceX lockup unlocks, Anthropic, Google, and Supermicro…
2026-06-12Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine CapitalBearishDoubleLine CapitalUS equities trade at P/B of 5.7x vs 2.39x for ex-US, a gap wide enough to nearly match historical parity…
2026-06-11Larry McdonaldFounder, The Bear Traps ReportBearishMacro VoicesMassive tech IPO capital raises ($200-250B immediate plus $3T lockup overhang) will drain liquidity from…
2026-06-11Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTTBearishForward GuidanceThe adjusted Warren Buffett metric (total equity market cap minus federal debt, divided by GDP) is at its…
2026-06-08Jessica RabeCo-Founder, DataTrek ResearchBullishThe CompoundThe S&P's current 2-standard-deviation 50-day return has historically been followed by positive 50-day…
2026-06-05Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBearishTom LeeA parabolic market lift over the past month has elevated expectations to levels that are now being sobered…
2026-06-04Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices)Co-host, MacroVoices & Market HuddleBearishMacro VoicesThe S&P 500 is in a short-term overbought condition after one of only four comparable rallies in 20 years…
2026-06-04David SolomonCEO, Goldman SachsBullishOdd LotsThe 490 non-top-10 S&P 500 stocks trading at 17-20x forward earnings are attractively valued because…
2026-06-03Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder CapitalBearishWealthionRising inflation and elevated Treasury yields will compress PE multiples, causing equity market derating even…
2026-06-02Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishReutersUS equities are in a multi-year bubble that exceeded two-sigma thresholds years ago and has been artificially…
2026-06-01Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeS&P 500 earnings came in $10 higher in Q1 alone, implying ~$40 upward revision for the full year which at a…
2026-06-01Charles PayneHost, Making Money / Fox Business NetworkBullishFox Making MoneyThe AI-driven 'fourth industrial revolution' is a structural tailwind that makes this bull market a…
2026-05-28George Goncalves (MUFG)Bond market strategistBearishWealthionValuations are extremely stretched but implicit government support prevents a structural collapse, though…
2026-05-28Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeQ1 earnings came in at $80 vs. $70 expected — a $40 annualized beat — which mechanically justifies 800–1,000…
2026-05-28Saira MalikBullishBloomberg Open Interest20%-plus earnings growth forecast for 2026 supports S&P reaching at least 7,750 without requiring any…
2026-05-28Ben SniderBullishBloomberg Open Interest24% S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026 driven by AI infrastructure — with roughly half coming from AI stocks and…
2026-05-27Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, SimplifyBearishWealthionPassive investing mechanics have inflated equity valuations to the point where forward expected returns are…
2026-05-27Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishBloomberg TelevisionFabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) — accelerating earnings growth on a resilient, recession-free economy —…
2026-05-26Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRockBullishCresset Family OfficeUS equities generating roughly 20% ROE are systematically underestimated relative to fixed income…
2026-05-25Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishBehind the Balance SheetUS market is at 2/3 of global market cap with extreme valuations while non-US developed and emerging markets…
2026-05-22Mohnish PabraiFund manager — Pabrai Investment FundsBearishMy First MillionAt current P/E levels (~23x), historical data shows the index's forward 10-year returns oscillate between -2%…
2026-05-22Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR CapitalBearishExcess ReturnsShiller CAPE near 40 (second highest in history) makes the US market's 5-10 year prospective returns look…
2026-05-20Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishMeb FaberStructural tailwinds and weak investor conviction support continued upside, with a year-end 2026 target of…
2026-05-19Jay Hatfield (Infrastructure Capital)CEO, Infrastructure Capital AdvisorsBullishBloomberg Open InterestAI boom has driven 2027 EPS estimates up 11% (350→385), supporting a 21x multiple even with the Strait closed…
2026-05-19Racquel OdenBullishBloomberg Open InterestCorporate earnings are tracking 21% growth versus the 14% projected at year-start, with an 84% beat rate well…
2026-05-18Christine BenzBearishBloomberg The CloseNon-US stocks offer higher dividend yields and more attractive valuations than US equities; global market-cap…
2026-05-16Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishExcess ReturnsThe 2021 bubble was only halfway deflated before being resuscitated by unprecedented AI capex, leaving a…
2026-05-15Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishMeb FaberStructural tailwinds and weak investor conviction (not euphoria) support continued upside, with a year-end…
2026-05-14Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, SimplifyBullishMacro VoicesMechanical 401k and passive fund inflows continue regardless of macro news, creating a persistent bid that…
2026-05-14Erik TownsendHost, MacroVoices podcastShortMacro VoicesDespite the market's mechanical levitation, the unpriced economic shock from the Hormuz energy crisis…
2026-05-11Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishCNBC TelevisionRecord corporate earnings, resilient consumer spending backed by $89T baby boomer net worth, AI-driven…
2026-05-07Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment CorpBullishCNBC TelevisionPrice multiples and earnings comparisons place the market at the equivalent of Q4 1999, suggesting ~40% more…
2026-05-07Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, SimplifyBearishJulia La Roche ShowTraditional DCF analysis shows ~75% of current market value rests in terminal value assumptions rather than…
2026-05-06Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU SternBullishiCapitalAI and a broader Cambrian explosion of technology will drive US potential growth from ~2% toward 4%…
2026-05-06Kevin HassettBullishFox Mornings with MariaAI productivity boom is feeding through an earnings boom while the Big Beautiful Bill's full expensing and…
2026-05-05Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRockBullishBloomberg The CloseBuyback-driven supply scarcity, corporate pricing power confirmed in earnings, and 5-6% nominal GDP growth…
2026-05-05Hepsen UzcanBearishBloomberg The CloseA structural 30-year shift in capital allocation away from US-only concentration is underway as Japanese…
2026-04-30Rob ArnottFounder & chairman, Research AffiliatesNeutralMoney Maze PodcastNon-US equities remain cheap on valuation even after some mean reversion versus US equities, offering a…
2026-04-29Bill AckmanCEO, Pershing SquareBullishTheStreetStrong economic tailwinds from pro-investment tax policy, AI infrastructure build-out, energy infrastructure…
2026-04-28Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment CorpBearishInvest Like The BestAt a stock-market-cap-to-GDP ratio of 252% and a P/E of ~22, historical data shows 10-year forward returns…
2026-04-25Chris BloomstranPresident & CIO, Semper Augustus InvestmentsBearishThe Investor’s PodcastThe S&P 500 at 26x earnings against the second-highest profit margin in stock market history historically…
2026-04-23Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategistBullishCem KarsanFiscal dominance structurally keeps nominal GDP elevated and asset prices rising in currency terms even if…
2026-04-21Josh Brown (Ritholtz)CEO, Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullishinterview30% gains over 18-24 months are historically consistent with prior rally patterns and current FOMO dynamics…
2026-04-21Sinead Colton GrantBullishBill MillerDouble-digit earnings growth with broadening participation beyond tech supports $315 EPS and a year-end S&P…
2026-04-20Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishThe Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred FrostUS market sits at one of the two or three highest valuations in history precisely when macro headwinds are…
2026-04-19Andrew PogueBearishSunday's Idea BrunchRich US valuations, an unsustainable fiscal deficit, a long-term current-account deficit, and a pivot to…
2026-04-17Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishLibrary of MistakesUS market is as overpriced as 1929 or 2000 bubble peaks, operating in an 'unbelievably dangerous environment…
2026-04-15Ray DalioFounder, Bridgewater AssociatesBearishInvestor WeeklyWhen measured in gold rather than depreciating dollars, the S&P 500 returned -28% in 2025, and stagflation…
2026-04-14Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRockBullishCNBC TelevisionLong-term investors who bought every major dip — dot-com bust, GFC, COVID — made over 8x their money since…
2026-04-13Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeDefense spending stimulus (~$30-60B/month) outweighs the household energy cost burden from higher oil prices…
2026-04-13Bill AckmanCEO, Pershing SquareBullishPershing SquareAI infrastructure boom, energy buildout, major infrastructure spending, and the new tax bill with investment…
2026-04-10Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks)ShortinterviewCeasefire is largely fake (Strait still closed), positioning rinse is complete, inflation is re-accelerating…
2026-04-10Steve SosnickChief Strategist, Interactive BrokersNeutralinterviewMidterm election years have historically been the market's worst years recently, and markets tend to…
2026-04-06Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeHigh oil prices benefit US equities on three fronts: the US is a net energy exporter, competitors in Asia are…
2026-04-06Rob ArnottFounder & chairman, Research AffiliatesBearishBrad RothNon-US stocks, especially on the value side, are extraordinarily cheap relative to US equities, and Arnott's…
2026-04-02Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishCNBC TelevisionThe Iran conflict has an effective exit ramp via US de-escalation, removing the worst-case scenario overhang…
2026-04-01Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago CapitalBullishJulia La Roche ShowIn three of four plausible macro scenarios the US outperforms the rest of the world due to superior…
2026-03-31Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine CapitalBearishinterviewUS equities at more than double the price-to-book of rest-of-world equities represents extraordinary…
2026-03-30Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, AllianzBearishCNBC TelevisionWar is triggering a cascading sequence from energy price shock to broader inflation shock to demand…
2026-03-27Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine CapitalBearishJulia La Roche ShowUS equity P/B is more than double the rest of the world — an extraordinary overvaluation — and a secular…
2026-03-26Chris DavisChairman, Davis AdvisorsBearishInvestmentNews TVThe S&P 500 index has become a concentrated momentum/growth trade at 26x earnings, creating a valuation…
2026-03-25Michael BurryFounder, Scion Asset ManagementBearishInvestor WeeklyThe three structural forces that kept the S&P 500 above fair value for 34 years — passive investing inflows…
2026-03-25Mohnish PabraiFund manager — Pabrai Investment FundsNeutralMy First MillionAt a PE ratio of ~23, historical data shows S&P 500 buyers have earned annualized returns of between +2% and…
2026-03-24Michael OliverFounder, Momentum Structural AnalysisBearishLacy HuntTechnical momentum indicators signal the stock market is breaking down from the biggest bubble in history…
2026-03-23Mohnish PabraiFund manager — Pabrai Investment FundsBearishPabrai Wagons ETFThe S&P 500 is heavily concentrated in Mag 7 and high-valuation tech names after an extreme run-up, making it…
2026-03-23Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishCapital Allocators with Ted SeidesUS stocks are too high-priced from top to toe relative to historical valuation norms, making them…
2026-03-19Fran Ois RochonFund manager — Giverny CapitalBearishFrancois RochonAt 25x trailing P/E — 40% above the historical median of 18x — S&P 500 forward returns over the next 5-10…
2026-03-18Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine CapitalBearishDoubleLine CapitalUS budget deficit expanding at ~$2T/year pace pushes national debt above $39T, weakening the dollar and…
2026-03-16Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishLifeWorthLivingUS market is in a major bubble with PE ~31 that institutional professionals themselves agree must revert…
2026-03-12Patrick SereznaCo-host, MacroVoicesShortMacro VoicesStructural weakness in mega-cap tech, private credit redemption pressure, and systematic flow triggers being…
2026-03-12Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices)Co-host, MacroVoices & Market HuddleBearishMacro VoicesMAG7 leadership has structurally broken down, systematic flow triggers are being hit, private credit…
2026-03-10Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishBloomberg TelevisionRoaring 2020s secular bull market thesis remains intact despite near-term volatility, with continued wealth…
2026-03-10Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishBloomberg PodcastsStrong earnings growth and a productivity comeback driven by AI keep the economy resilient enough to reach…
2026-03-09Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, AllianzBearishCNBC TelevisionMarkets are pricing an 80% probability of a temporary/reversible shock but El-Erian sees it as only 50%…
2026-03-06Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishFox BusinessGeopolitical crises in the Middle East historically are buying opportunities, and strong productivity…
2026-03-05David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg ResearchBearishAdam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®CAPE near 40x (second-highest on record) combined with a near-zero or negative equity risk premium against…
2026-03-02Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine CapitalBearishDoubleLine CapitalUS equities trade at price-to-book more than 2.5x the rest of the world, foreign capital repatriation is…
2026-03-02Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree CapitalBearishPepperdine UniversityAfter one of the six best 3-year runs in S&P 500 history fueled by a sentiment swing from pessimism to…
2026-02-27Aswath DamodaranProfessor of finance, NYU SternBearishMeb FaberUS equities are richly priced with implied equity risk premium near historical averages, but a painful global…
2026-02-26Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington InvestmentBearishInvestor Insight ChannelEquity valuations are at historically extreme levels by multiple measures (Shiller PE, Buffett indicator)…
2026-02-18Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU SternBullishBloomberg TelevisionA productivity-driven growth acceleration from AI, robotics, quantum, biotech, and related technologies will…
2026-02-06Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishCNBC TelevisionThe Magnificent 7 must sell their technologies to the rest of the S&P 500, meaning AI benefits broaden out to…
2026-01-31Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeEarnings growth is accelerating globally, market breadth is broadening, and the new Fed chair is unlikely to…
2026-01-30Russell NapierMarket strategist & financial historianBearishMeb FaberUS equities are at historically extreme valuations (Shiller CAPE above 40) while institutional investors are…
2026-01-29Savita SubramanianHead of US Equity Strategy, BofABullishCNBC Fast Money Final TradeBroadening away from mega-cap toward equal-weight and small caps is supported by capex investment, clearer…
2026-01-29Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, SimplifyShortMichael GreenPassive investing penetration (~54% in US equities) creates self-catalyzing systemic instability — at ~80-85%…
2026-01-23Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratNeutralTom LeeInternational stocks outperformed US equities in the prior year, making them crowded trades most vulnerable…
2026-01-22Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRockBullishBloomberg PodcastsThe US economy is growing strongly (estimated 5%+ GDP in Q1) driven by AI capex, making the US one of the…
2026-01-22Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, AllianzBearishCNBC TelevisionMarket believes policy resets are repeatable so buy-the-dip remains valid, but El-Erian warns the US growth…
2026-01-22Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishCNBC TelevisionA resilient US economy with no recession in sight drives strong earnings growth, fueling an earnings-led…
2026-01-22Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR CapitalBearishinterview75–85% of US outperformance vs world since 1990 came from valuation expansion rather than fundamentals…
2026-01-21Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility AdvisorsBearishForward GuidanceThe 1962–1982 analog — the closest historical parallel to current populist/inflationary cycle — saw every…
2026-01-21David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg ResearchBearishinterviewThe Shiller CAPE at 40 is a 3-sigma event — higher than 1929 and the Nifty50 peak — and every historical…
2026-01-21Charles PayneHost, Making Money / Fox Business NetworkBullishinterviewEquities only need the perception that the Fed's next move is a cut — not the magnitude — to keep rallying…
2026-01-20Charles PayneHost, Making Money / Fox Business NetworkBullishJeffrey GundlachAI-driven productivity is expanding corporate profit margins from ~10% to ~20% and creating a jobless…
2026-01-19Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, SimplifyBearishMichael GreenPassive investing has created near-perfectly inelastic demand for large caps via flow-driven multiplier…
2026-01-19Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishinterviewHistorically extreme US valuations mathematically guarantee low-to-negative returns over the next decade…
2026-01-15Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRockBullishCNBC TelevisionAmerican exceptionalism and above-trend US economic growth over the next several years justify long-term…
2026-01-15Terry SmithFounder & CIO, FundsmithBearishSeth KlarmanSixteen years without a genuine economic downturn, passive index inflows now exceeding 50% of AUM are…
2026-01-13Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU SternBullishBloomberg TelevisionA broad technology-driven productivity revolution is lifting US potential growth from 1.8% toward 4% by 2030…
2026-01-13Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishIn the MoneyThe 493 companies outside the Mag 7 are the actual beneficiaries of AI-driven productivity gains, with…
2026-01-09Karen Finerman (Metropolitan)CEO, Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsShortCNBC Fast Money Final TradeVIX is currently cheap making downside protection via SPY puts inexpensive, an attractive risk/reward to…
2026-01-08Marc FaberEditor, Gloom Boom & Doom ReportBearishMeb FaberUS equities are in a bubble (65% of global market cap, extreme valuations by price-to-sales/book/earnings)…
2026-01-05Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeTariffs anniversarying, Fed cutting, ISM potentially turning above 50, and strong earnings growth across…
2026-01-05Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeTariffs anniversarying, Fed cutting, ISM recovering above 50, and strong earnings growth across multiple…
2026-01-05Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree CapitalNeutralinterviewThe S&P 500 is priced for subnormal returns of roughly 2% or less because the non-Mag7 constituents trade at…
2025-12-30Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTTBullishNetwork State PodcastBecause stock market gains drive capital gains taxes that are the marginal source of US federal tax receipts…
2025-12-29Ben SniderBullishinterviewBroad earnings growth remains strong (S&P 500 +12% EPS in Q3, S&P 493 consistent ~15%/yr for three…
2025-12-29Ben LevisohnMarkets editor, Barron'sBearishBarron's RoundtableAfter three consecutive years of strong gains, AI trade complexity, Fed policy uncertainty, and midterm…
2025-12-28Ben FelixCIO, PWL CapitalNeutralinterviewElevated US valuations historically correlate with lower future returns, and extreme index concentration…
2025-12-19David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg ResearchBearishKitco NEWSShiller CAPE at 40x is the 6th mega-bubble of the past century; at this multiple, historical expected returns…
2025-12-18Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishWEALTHTRACKRoaring 2020s productivity boom sustains 3–3.5% real GDP growth and high profit margins with no recession…
2025-12-17Mark MossYouTube host — macro & BitcoinBullishMichael BurryBurry placed a $1.6 billion short against the S&P 500 in 2023 based on bearish macro outlook, but Moss…
2025-12-16Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishCNBC TelevisionStrong productivity growth driven by AI adoption and a robust labor market will sustain 3-3.5% real GDP…
2025-12-15Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBearishTom LeeWithout a new Fed chair and no Fed put yet in play, the first half of 2026 lacks a key market backstop…
2025-12-13Bill NygrenPortfolio manager, Oakmark FundsBearishFox BusinessThe S&P 500 has become a highly concentrated technology mega-cap growth fund over the past decade, making it…
2025-12-12Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeDespite an expected 20% drawdown in 2026, the absence of leverage in the economy means the correction will be…
2025-12-11Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeA dovish new Fed chair, White House put, and QT ending create tailwinds for equities, driving S&P 500 to…
2025-12-11Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeFed put returning under new dovish chair plus White House put creates tailwinds for equities, driving S&P to…
2025-12-08Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchNeutralBloomberg TelevisionUS now constitutes 65% of MSCI world market cap after 15 years of stay-home outperformance, making a…
2025-12-04Marko PapicGeopolitical macro strategistBullishMacro VoicesErosion of Fed independence historically benefits equities as the central bank loses its role as the 'prudent…
2025-12-03Michael BurryFounder, Scion Asset ManagementShortOksanaOver 50% of money is now passive/index, meaning when the market falls there is no rotation into ignored value…
2025-12-02Michael BurryFounder, Scion Asset ManagementShortinterviewWith over 50% of money now passive/index-driven and fewer than 10% of assets actively managed on a long-term…
2025-12-01Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeQT ending (effectively QE starting), Fed rate cut in December, seasonal tailwinds, and performance chasing by…
2025-11-28Russell NapierMarket strategist & financial historianBearishPrime QuadrantGlobal capital repatriation — as surplus nations redirect savings to fund domestic industrial policy rather…
2025-11-28Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishBloomberg PodcastsThe 493 S&P 500 companies outside the Mag 7 are direct beneficiaries of the productivity gains Mag 7…
2025-11-26Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTTBullishMarket Disruptors PodcastRunning the economy hot with financial repression inflates nominal asset prices; fiscal dominance forces the…
2025-11-17Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine CapitalBearishinterviewUS equities are in a speculative mania driven by AI/data center enthusiasm that prices in transformative…
2025-11-12Meb FaberCo-founder & CIO, CambriaBearishCapital ConsideredUS equities at a CAPE ratio of 40 — the second highest ever — have historically produced roughly zero real…
2025-11-10Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishCNBC TelevisionAn earnings-led meltup with S&P 500 earnings growing ~14% YoY versus the ~6.5% expected keeps providing…
2025-11-06Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington InvestmentBearishLifeWorthLivingThe US economy is far more fragile than recognized, with the normally resilient service sector flatlining…
2025-11-05Bill NygrenPortfolio manager, Oakmark FundsBearishThe World According To BoyarThe S&P 500 has morphed from a broadly diversified index into a concentrated mega-cap technology growth fund…
2025-11-05Bill NygrenPortfolio manager, Oakmark FundsBearishThe World According To BoyarThe S&P 500 has become a concentrated mega-cap technology growth fund, not a diversified index, so passive…
2025-11-02Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishCooper AcademyUS equities are at the highest valuation in history by multiple measures (Shiller PE ~39, Wilshire 5000/GDP…
2025-10-24Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker CapitalBullishForward GuidanceExtreme fear indicators (fear/greed at 25, record selling, HY outflows, fourth-largest VIX spike in three…
2025-10-23Brett RentmeesterCIO, Jaggi Family OfficeBearishWealthionTechnology sector P/S is higher than the 1999 peak and top-10 names represent 39% of the S&P 500, creating…
2025-10-22Mike NovogratzFounder/CEO, Galaxy DigitalBullishCNBC TelevisionS&P chart is less than 1% from a technical breakout level and ample liquidity plus the AI narrative suggest…
2025-10-22Sven HenrichFounder, NorthmanTraderBullishLacy HuntThe weekly 5 EMA has repeatedly acted as support since the April 2024 lows and has just been recaptured…
2025-10-22Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeISM below 50 for 31 months historically signals mid/early cycle (never late cycle), combined with strong…
2025-10-20Jessica RabeCo-Founder, DataTrek ResearchBullishThe CompoundSeasonality strongly favors a Q4 melt-up since the S&P peaks in December 53% of the time with an average 22%…
2025-10-14Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRockBullishCNBC TelevisionStaying invested through crises (dot-com, financial crisis, COVID) still produced 8% compounded returns over…
2025-10-14Sven CarlinFounder, Sven Carlin Research PlatformBearishWealthionPE of 30 vs historical sub-20, dividend yield of 1.2% vs historical 4%, with over 50% of recent gains…
2025-10-10Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters CapitalBullishForward GuidanceConvergence of falling fed funds rate (toward 2.5%), persistent fiscal deficit (6–7%), and AI capex buildout…
2025-10-10Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker CapitalBearishForward GuidanceRisk-reward for the large cap index is poor given stretched multiples and 40% concentration in mega-cap AI…
2025-10-08George RobertsonAuthor, The Monetary FrontierShortForward GuidanceMassive fiscal tightening from tariffs (~$200-300B corporate tax drag) plus DOGE job cuts have caused a ~4…
2025-10-02Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeThe median S&P 500 stock trades at 17x forward earnings (not the expensive MAG-7 skewed average), US…
2025-09-24Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz WealthBullishThe CompoundOracle breaking the cash-flow-funded AI spending model forces Amazon, Microsoft, and Google into a…
2025-09-20Meb FaberCo-founder & CIO, CambriaBearishDividend StockpileUS equities are near historical valuation extremes (10-year CAPE ~40, S&P yield at record-low 1.2%), and the…
2025-09-18Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine CapitalBearishDoubleLine CapitalUS stocks have priced in aggressive rate cuts and AI-driven growth similarly to how electricity stocks…
2025-09-11Bill NygrenPortfolio manager, Oakmark FundsBullishCNBC TelevisionRoughly 150 S&P 500 stocks still trade under 14x earnings today — the same count as 7 years ago — meaning the…
2025-09-09Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRockBullishCNBC TelevisionExtraordinary technicals driven by buybacks massively dwarfing the IPO calendar (~$1T vs ~$50-60B), strong…
2025-08-31Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington InvestmentBearishAdam TaggartEquity valuations are at 230-year PE highs per Malkiel, Buffett's market-cap-to-GDP is at all-time highs, and…
2025-08-29Joe DuranCEO, Rise Growth PartnersNeutralWealthionWith seven stocks now driving 34% of S&P 500 market cap at valuations resembling 1999, shifting to…
2025-08-25Dave CollumProfessor of Chemistry, Cornell UniversityBearishWealthionShiller CAPE at 38-39 versus 110-year historical average of 12-13 implies a 65-70% regression-to-mean…
2025-08-21Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree CapitalBearishBloomberg PodcastsStocks are expensive relative to fundamentals after 16 years without a serious correction, driving investor…
2025-08-20Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree CapitalBearishBloomberg TelevisionUS stocks are expensive relative to fundamentals after 16 years without a serious correction, with elevated…
2025-08-18Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco ResearchBullishWealthionExtreme S&P valuations compress forward equity returns to low single digits (~6% annually), making bonds at…
2025-08-15Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago CapitalShortForward GuidanceConfluence of rare simultaneous signals — CTAs 95% long, VIX and bond vol at lows, momentum diverging from…
2025-08-15Peter BoockvarCIO, OnePoint BFG Wealth PartnersBearishWealthionA decade of US market dominance has created extreme valuation disparity; the pendulum is swinging back in a…
2025-08-08Kevin GrimesCEO & CIO, Grimes & CompanyBearishWealthionS&P forward PE near 23x, RSI hit 75, market up 25% in four months from April lows — technically and…
2025-08-04Vincent DeluardGlobal Macro Strategist, StoneXBullishHidden ForcesFiscal dominance suppresses real interest rates, boosts corporate profits via government deficit spending…
2025-08-01Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker CapitalBearishForward GuidanceNear-term August seasonal weakness combined with JPMorgan squeeze sentiment at 2021 highs and retail options…
2025-07-30Danny DayanCIO, DWD PartnersBullishForward GuidanceInflation at 3–4% is benign for equity revenues, dollar weakness flatters the ~30% of S&P revenues from…
2025-07-30Joseph WangCIO, Monetary MacroBearishForward GuidanceTariffs act as a tax increase, monetary policy is more restrictive than markets expected, and these policies…
2025-07-29Jason KatzBullishFox Varney & CoRally is fundamentals-driven rather than euphoria-fueled, and institutional investors who missed the move may…
2025-07-28Michael CembalestChairman of Market and Investment Strategy, J.P. Morgan Asset ManagementBullishThe CompoundAfter the liberation-day tariff selloff produced a 20% correction, historical base rates going back 100 years…
2025-07-23Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, SimplifyBearishWealthionPassive inflows have created Ponzi-like valuation dynamics (index at 3× sales, leaders at 5–15× sales) where…
2025-07-15Thomas HayesBullishFox Varney & CoEvery V-shaped recovery of this magnitude since 1950 has been followed by an additional ~22% gain over the…
2025-07-11Ryan DetrickChief market strategist, Carson GroupBullishThe CompoundNo recession visible with economy growing ~1.5%, forward S&P earnings at all-time record $281/share, profit…
2025-07-10Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishMaster InvestorThe US market is at its highest valuation in history by serious measures, comparable only to 1929, 2000, and…
2025-07-10Raoul PalCo-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PMNeutralForward GuidanceThe S&P 500 only breaks even against the 8% fiat debasement rate, adding no real purchasing-power value…
2025-07-10Michael DellChairman & CEO, Dell TechnologiesBullishBg2 PodAI-driven productivity gains will enable a large share of companies to compound earnings on a double-digit…
2025-07-09Raoul PalCo-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PMNeutralForward GuidanceThe S&P 500 adjusted for global liquidity/fiat debasement produces essentially zero real return; in…
2025-07-08Peter BoockvarCIO, OnePoint BFG Wealth PartnersNeutralWealthionAt ~24x earnings with a 1% dividend yield and the Mag 7 leadership splintering, the S&P 500 is mathematically…
2025-07-04Marko PapicGeopolitical macro strategistBearishWTFinanceThe shift from a unipolar to multipolar world requires portfolio outflows from the US as the current account…
2025-07-03Kevin GrimesCEO & CIO, Grimes & CompanyBullishWealthionThe 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day (golden cross) signals momentum has turned positive and…
2025-07-01Michael OliverFounder, Momentum Structural AnalysisBearishWealthionLong-term momentum structure broke in January and the current rally to new highs is a widening-top trap —…
2025-06-30Joe DavisGlobal Chief Economist, VanguardBearishThe CompoundUS debt is projected to reach record highs (171% debt-to-GDP per CBO) with a credible fiscal-pressure…
2025-06-27Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters CapitalBullishForward Guidance$1.4 trillion in annual corporate buybacks mechanically removes float every year while passive flow price…
2025-06-27Andy SchwartzCo-Founder & Managing Partner, Bleakley Financial GroupBullishWealthionNon-US equities are not trading at record highs unlike the S&P 500, making them reasonable entry points…
2025-06-25Steve HankeProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins UniversityBearishWealthionHanke's bubble detector is flashing a signal not seen since the 2001 dot-com peak; the bubble must eventually…
2025-06-24Simon HuntFounder, Simon Hunt Strategic ServicesBearishWealthionS&P is at a critical inflection point where geopolitical escalation and stagflation will trigger at least a…
2025-06-18Nassim TalebAuthor; advisor, Universa InvestmentsShortBloomberg PodcastsElevated uncertainty from US fiscal deterioration and irrational policy (tariffs, immigration) justifies…
2025-06-16Henrik ZebergHead Macroeconomist, SwissblockBullishWealthion$4.5T in global M2 expansion this year is fueling a liquidity-driven blow-off top to at least 6,800 before…
2025-06-13Jeffrey MillerPortfolio Manager, Incline Investment AdvisorsBullishWealthionDouble-digit S&P earnings growth and margin expansion underpin US equity valuations, and…
2025-06-11Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine CapitalBearishBloomberg PodcastsForward PE is higher today than at the February all-time high because earnings estimates have been cut while…
2025-06-09David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg ResearchBearishWealthionForward P/E of 21 is pricing in a near-zero risk-free rate while cash pays 4.5% — the equity risk premium is…
2025-06-06Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters CapitalBullishForward GuidanceA structural buyback machine ($717B YTD, ~$1.5T annualized run rate), persistent passive 401k inflows, and…
2025-06-05David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg ResearchBearishWealthionEquity and credit markets have priced in zero recession probability despite the Fed's own Beige Book showing…
2025-06-03Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR CapitalBearishBloomberg TelevisionUS stock valuations are 'pretty bad' while price trend momentum has weakened, causing the combined timing…
2025-05-30Peter BoockvarCIO, OnePoint BFG Wealth PartnersBearishWealthionS&P 500 trading near 23x 2025 earnings estimates puts valuations in the upper historical echelon, implying…
2025-05-28David CervantesFounder, Pinebrook Capital ManagementBullishForward GuidanceMassive fiscal deficit (7-8% of GDP) inoculates the economy from recession, and tax-cut extensions add…
2025-05-28Edward DowdFounding Partner, Phinance TechnologiesBearishWealthionThe post-April rally is a counter-trend bounce off an AI-bubble burst and tariff shock, valuations remain…
2025-05-22Kevin MuirIndependent trader — The Macro TouristBullishForward GuidanceFiscal deficits running ~20% above the prior year are the dominant market force — not Fed policy — and until…
2025-05-16Scott SchwartzPrincipal, OnePoint BFG Wealth PartnersNeutralWealthionInternational equities remain significantly cheaper than US equities even after the recent recovery, with…
2025-05-15Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTTBullishForward GuidanceUS fiscal math requires equities to rise 10–20% annually to generate sufficient capital gains tax receipts…
2025-05-15Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishinterviewTotal market cap-to-GDP and similar long-horizon valuation metrics put the US market at or above historical…
2025-05-14Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTTBullishForward GuidanceUS fiscal math requires equities to rise 10–20% annually to generate sufficient capital-gains tax receipts…
2025-05-12Mohnish PabraiFund manager — Pabrai Investment FundsBearishinterviewBoth the MAG-7 and the remaining 493 S&P constituents are trading significantly above historical valuation…
2025-05-08Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU SternBullishBloomberg TelevisionA secular investment/capex boom driven by AI and productivity gains will attract sustained FDI and portfolio…
2025-05-07Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment CorpBearishTorontoWealthGroupTariffs act as the largest tax increase since the 1960s reducing growth by 2-3%, while the Fed remains locked…
2025-05-01Bob ElliottCEO & CIO, Unlimited FundsBearishForward GuidanceForeign investors are withdrawing capital from US equities faster than the current account deficit shrinks…
2025-04-26Danny DayanCIO, DWD PartnersBullishForward GuidanceTactically long while headlines trend toward de-escalation, but only as a rental — structural headwinds from…
2025-04-25Rebecca Patterson (strategist, ex-Bridgewater)Former chief strategist, BridgewaterBearishThe Compound75% recession probability driven by tariff-induced consumer purchasing-power hit, with earnings deterioration…
2025-04-25Danny DayanCIO, DWD PartnersBullishForward GuidanceTrade war temperature being taken down creates a tactical bounce opportunity as incremental headlines turn…
2025-04-24Brad GerstnerFounder & CEO, Altimeter CapitalBearishBg2 PodConsensus S&P earnings estimates have barely budged (only ~3% cut to $265/share) despite widespread CEO…
2025-04-23Jesse FelderAuthor, The Felder ReportBearishWealthionAt ~25x trailing earnings vs. the historical 15x average, forward earnings estimates haven't priced in a…
2025-04-16Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree CapitalBearishOaktree CapitalAt current PE ratios, historical data shows S&P returns of minus 2% to 2% over a decade, making equities…
2025-04-16Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz WealthBullishThe CompoundBuying US equities when they are down 15% from peak has produced positive returns 83% of the time at one year…
2025-04-16Mel MattisonBullishForward GuidancePersistent fiscal deficits drive nominal GDP growth and a depreciating dollar inflates the 50% of S&P…
2025-04-10Julien GarranPartner, The MacroStrategy PartnershipBearishWealthionA confluence of peak valuations, high leverage, antitrust pressure on big-tech earnings, rising savings…
2025-04-09Darius DaleFounder & CEO, 42 MacroBearishForward GuidanceTrump's structural shift from globalization to deglobalization will compress capital's share of national…
2025-04-09Ben CarlsonDirector of institutional AM, Ritholtz WealthBullishThe CompoundScary markets provide opportunities for long-term wealth building; continuing systematic purchases across…
2025-04-09Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz WealthBullishThe CompoundVIX spiking above 45 historically produces positive S&P returns 82-92% of the time at 6-12 months out, and…
2025-04-05Kyle BassFounder/CIO, Hayman CapitalBullishTorontoWealthGroupForced volatility selling and VAR-model deleveraging have driven markets down 13-17% YTD, but there is an…
2025-04-04Josh Brown (Ritholtz)CEO, Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBearishThe CompoundThe S&P 500 has more downside before a durable bottom because the tariffs are literal (not a negotiating…
2025-04-04Larry McdonaldFounder, The Bear Traps ReportBearishWealthionUS recession driven by high interest costs, tariff headwinds, and consumer slowdown will compress earnings…
2025-04-02Larry McdonaldFounder, The Bear Traps ReportBearishWealthionReal S&P 500 earnings are ~$230 not the street's $270 consensus per CFO guidance, and at a…
2025-03-31Jacob MillerBearishThe CompoundLarge-cap US index companies face the most pain from tariffs because they have the highest overseas sales…
2025-03-25Joseph WangCIO, Monetary MacroBearishForward GuidanceTrade policy disruption in 2025 is materially more severe than 2018, making a 10% correction just the…
2025-03-20John RubinoAuthor & Newsletter, JohnRubino.Substack.comBearishWealthionUS stocks are more richly valued than the 2000 tech bubble peak while the underlying economy carries far more…
2025-03-14Barry RitholtzCo-Founder & CIO, Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullishMasters in BusinessThe real AI upside is the other 493 S&P 500 companies that will each adopt AI for productivity and profit…
2025-03-13David IbenCIO, Kopernik Global InvestorsShortWealthionUS stocks sit at their highest-ever valuations on most metrics — priced for 'American exceptionalism' — while…
2025-03-12Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz WealthBullishThe CompoundThe current selloff is a historically normal mid-year correction inside a secular bull market — historically…
2025-03-12Vincent DeluardGlobal Macro Strategist, StoneXBearishForward GuidanceSimultaneous fiscal tightening (state/local spending rolling over from 10%+ growth to contraction, tariffs as…
2025-03-08Scott SchwartzPrincipal, OnePoint BFG Wealth PartnersBearishWealthionNon-US equities were trading at nearly half the P/E of US large-caps after years of underperformance and are…
2025-03-08Tony GreerFounder, TG MacroBullishForward GuidanceSentiment indicators are at historic bearish extremes, hedge funds have made the largest short sales ever in…
2025-03-07Steve HankeProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins UniversityBearishWealthionHanke's 'bubble detector' — stocks-vs-bonds relative valuation — is at an all-time high, a level historically…
2025-03-03Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeInvestors are treating a growth scare as a crisis, mispricing the risk, and the market has priced in a lot of…
2025-03-03Chamath PalihapitiyaFounder, Social CapitalBearishAll-In PodcastTariffs plus slowing immigration plus DOGE austerity will slow US GDP growth from ~2.5% to ~1.5% in H2…
2025-02-28Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility AdvisorsBearishForward GuidanceMarket declines destroy collateral and liquidity, triggering recession in a reflexive loop; the Trump admin…
2025-02-26Andy ConstanFounder & Macro Strategist, Damped Spring AdvisorsShortForward GuidanceGrowth deceleration will compress the earnings numerator while elevated term premium keeps the discount rate…
2025-02-26Andy LeesFounder, Macrostrategy PartnershipBearishWealthionUS equities are at extreme overvaluation and the three sequential drivers of the bull market — post-COVID…
2025-02-15Scott SchwartzPrincipal, OnePoint BFG Wealth PartnersBearishWealthionInternational equities trade at materially lower multiples than US Mag 7 and are starting to lead as…
2025-02-14David EinhornFounder, Greenlight CapitalBearishSKAGEN FondeneThe US equity market is at historically extreme valuations with near-zero risk premium versus government…
2025-02-07David GirouxHead of Investment Strategy & CIO Multi-Asset, T. Rowe PriceBearishThe CompoundCompany-by-company 5-year DCF analysis targeting 2030 prices yields a forward total return below 5% annually…
2025-02-06Ray DalioFounder, Bridgewater AssociatesBearishPeter H. DiamandisUS assets are priced to outperform all other countries, creating a high hurdle rate; at current valuations…
2025-02-05Jim ChanosShort seller — Chanos & Co (family office)BullishBloomberg PodcastsSince the GameStop episode the most-shorted stocks (highly speculative, dicey companies) have continued to…
2025-02-05Jonathan WellumCEO & CIO, RockLinc Investment PartnersBearishWealthionTariff-driven earnings headwinds on the ~40% of S&P revenues earned overseas, combined with stretched…
2025-01-31Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker CapitalBullishForward GuidanceMarket-cap-weighted SPY is at stretched valuations (~25x PE) while Russell 2000 is full of low-quality names…
2025-01-24Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker CapitalNeutralForward GuidanceAfter back-to-back 25%+ years, it is hard to make the case for multiple expansion from current valuations, so…
2025-01-24Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, SimplifyBullishWealthionMandatory 401k auto-enrollment defaults new workers into passive Target Date Funds that mechanically buy the…
2025-01-17Sven HenrichFounder, NorthmanTraderBearishWealthionMarket is highly concentrated with historically extreme valuations and reverse-repo liquidity about to run…
2025-01-15Chris VermeulenFounder & Chief Investment Strategist, The Technical TradersBearishWealthionMultiple asset classes (SPX, gold, Bitcoin) simultaneously hit their 100% Fibonacci measured-move targets in…
2025-01-14Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth ManagementBearishWealthionMarket is historically expensive on price-to-sales (3.1x) and Shiller PE, Mag 7 concentration in index…
2025-01-10James LavishCo-Managing Partner, Bitcoin Opportunity FundBullishWealthionTrue inflation equals money supply expansion at ~7% annually since the Nixon shock, so staying invested in…
2025-01-10Anthony ScaramucciFounder, SkyBridge CapitalBullishWealthionSystematic monthly DCA into the broad market index since 1989 has reliably compounded wealth through all…
2025-01-09Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, AllianzBullishWalker & DunlopIncoming Trump administration deregulation and productivity-enhancing technology investment will ultimately…
2025-01-09Ben CarlsonDirector of institutional AM, Ritholtz WealthBullishThe CompoundIt is too early to end the AI spending cycle; companies will keep investing and the market could extend into…
2025-01-08Jonny MatthewsSenior Portfolio Manager, Fortem CapitalBearishForward GuidanceAt 22x forward earnings requiring 14.8% EPS growth, the index needs everything to go right while the multiple…
2025-01-07David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg ResearchBearishWealthionConsumption is increasingly driven by a wealth effect concentrated in the top 10-20% of income…
2025-01-03Brian WesburyChief Economist, First Trust AdvisorsBearishThe CompoundHis capitalized profits model — corporate profits discounted by the 10-year yield — shows the market is…
2025-01-02Jonathan WellumCEO & CIO, RockLinc Investment PartnersNeutralWealthionUS equity valuations at 23-24x earnings are the richest they have ever been, so a third consecutive 20%+ year…
2024-12-30Jesse FelderAuthor, The Felder ReportBearishWealthionThe momentum factor is at 1999/2021-level extremes—historically a strong predictor of 12-month S&P 500…
2024-12-27Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishWealthionAI-driven earnings expansion combined with a prime-age workforce surge from Millennials and Gen Z—two…
2024-12-27David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg ResearchBearishWealthionEquity risk premium has collapsed from 40bp to ~10bp as markets price in massive tax cuts that are unlikely…
2024-12-26Steve HankeProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins UniversityBearishWealthionS&P at ~5900-6000 is ~25% overpriced because tariff drag, active war escalation (Ukraine/Russia long-range…
2024-12-25Chris VermeulenFounder & Chief Investment Strategist, The Technical TradersBullishWealthionPost-correction Fibonacci 618 extension sets up a measured move to ~6,000, with the July-August shakeout…
2024-12-24Marc FaberEditor, Gloom Boom & Doom ReportBearishWealthionReal inflation has been systematically understated for decades, meaning real GDP is actually contracting and…
2024-12-20Sven CarlinFounder, Sven Carlin Research PlatformBearishWealthionUS equities at P/E 30 — second-most-expensive in history — offer only a 1% yield against a 50% crash risk if…
2024-12-20Nick ColasCo-Founder, DataTrek ResearchBullishThe CompoundVIX at 27.6 is exactly one standard deviation from the long-term mean and historically the last two times VIX…
2024-12-18Joseph WangCIO, Monetary MacroBearishForward GuidanceForeign investors hold a near-doubled, historically stretched position in US stocks with almost no FX hedging…
2024-12-17Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility AdvisorsBullishWealthionEnd-of-year options roll-off creates structural dealer buying, compressing downside skew and lifting the…
2024-12-13Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRockBullishThe CompoundNominal GDP running near 4.5-5% makes 15% equity returns achievable without heroic assumptions, with tech and…
2024-12-12Jesse FelderAuthor, The Felder ReportBearishWealthionThe insider sell-to-buy ratio exceeds 25 — a level last seen in late 2021 just before the 2022 earnings…
2024-12-03Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR CapitalNeutralBloomberg Television85% of US equity outperformance vs. global peers has come from multiple expansion rather than fundamentals…
2024-12-03Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishWealthionAI-driven productivity gains and economic resilience support a multi-year bull market regardless of policy…
2024-11-29Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishWealthionS&P earnings could reach $600–$650 by 2030 driven by AI lifting technology-sector earnings (which command…
2024-11-27Ron WilliamFounder & Market Strategist, RW AdvisoryBearishWealthionS&P 500 is in an overheated five-wave momentum pattern at the 6,000 psychological resistance level, with…
2024-11-26Jason TrennertChairman & CEO, Strategas Research PartnersBullishWealthionNear-term earnings growth (high single digits) and Trump win supporting capital formation keep equities…
2024-11-23Steve HankeProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins UniversityBearishWealthionS&P at 5,900-6,000 is roughly 25% overvalued because markets have not priced in tariff drag on growth…
2024-11-22Meb FaberCo-founder & CIO, CambriaNeutralLead-Lag MediaUS large-cap is historically expensive at ~38x CAPE but trend remains up, so a short call is premature…
2024-11-21Steve HankeProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins UniversityBearishWealthionM2 money supply has contracted and is now growing at only 2.6% vs the ~6% needed to hit the Fed's 2% target…
2024-11-18Nelson PeltzActivist investor — Trian PartnersBearishCNBC EventsPost-election euphoria has driven equities to fully valued levels and the rally is unlikely to continue…
2024-11-16Adam JohnsonFounder & Portfolio Manager, Bullseye Investment GroupBullishWealthionGDP is growing at 2.5-3% with earnings growth of 8-10% accelerating to 10-12% next year, and the Trump…
2024-11-15David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg ResearchBearishWealthionForward P/E at 22x with equity risk premium collapsed to ~10-30bps is 'stupid expensive' — valuations are at…
2024-11-14Adam JohnsonFounder & Portfolio Manager, Bullseye Investment GroupBullishWealthionS&P 500 earnings accelerating to $280–285 in 2025 (10–12% growth) at a 22–23x PE supports a near-term rally…
2024-11-12George RobertsonAuthor, The Monetary FrontierBullishForward GuidanceAbsent effective monetary policy combined with persistent ~$3.5T annual fiscal spend has put nominal GDP on a…
2024-11-11Justin NugentBullishWealthionTwo nested monthly bull flags on SPY with measured moves converging at 609, combined with Fed rate-cut…
2024-11-08Katie StocktonTechnical strategist — FairleadBearishThe CompoundThe monthly S&P 500 chart shows a DeMark sequential 13 exhaustion count and a peaking MACD histogram…
2024-11-08Bob ElliottCEO & CIO, Unlimited FundsBullishForward GuidanceElevated valuations are irrelevant while easy monetary and fiscal policy persists — historically, bubbles…
2024-11-06Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility AdvisorsBullishForward GuidanceStructural options flows—charm, vanna, and structured product unwind from record structured product issuance…
2024-11-04Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth ManagementBearishWealthionMarkets are complacent but the US may already be in recession with cracks likely to emerge in corporate…
2024-11-01Marko PapicGeopolitical macro strategistBullishLead-Lag MediaUS equities can still rise but will likely underperform other regions as fiscal tailwinds peak and bond…
2024-10-29Jurrien TimmerDirector of Global Macro, Fidelity InvestmentsBullishForward GuidanceThe cyclical and secular bull market remains intact in the seventh inning, with earnings still growing and…
2024-10-25Jason CalacanisAngel investorBullishAll-In PodcastRegardless of election outcome, $10T in additional government spending will flow into asset markets rather…
2024-10-19Michael NicoletosFounder & CEO, DeFi AdvisorsBullishWealthionAccelerating global liquidity — Fed cuts, ECB cuts, and Chinese stimulus — flows disproportionately into US…
2024-10-18Warren PiesCo-founder, 3Fourteen ResearchBullishThe CompoundA momentum thrust (19% 63-day return coming out of a bear market with negative sentiment) has historically…
2024-10-18Michael NicoletosFounder & CEO, DeFi AdvisorsBullishWealthionAn unprecedented pace of global liquidity injection — from the Fed, ECB, and China — flows disproportionately…
2024-10-16Tony GreerFounder, TG MacroBullishForward GuidanceCyclicals, financials, industrials, and technology are all breaking out simultaneously — a broad-based bull…
2024-10-16Janet MuiBullishBloomberg SurveillanceUS mega-caps have the world's best companies exposed to structural AI growth stories, and investors rotate…
2024-10-12Christopher VermeulenFounder & Chief Investment Strategist, The Technical TradersBullishWealthionAugust volatility cleansed the market and re-energized buyers; Fibonacci extension off the July–August…
2024-10-11Nassim TalebAuthor; advisor, Universa InvestmentsBearishBloomberg TelevisionMarkets are at peak fragility due to extreme valuations built on AI hope, complacency after prolonged…
2024-10-08Chris VermeulenFounder & Chief Investment Strategist, The Technical TradersBullishWealthionPost-August correction cleansed the market and re-energized momentum; Fibonacci extension off the pullback…
2024-10-05Geo ChenAuthor, Fidenza MacroBullishWealthionThe Fed pledging to cut rates as needed while the economy is not in recession is one of the most historically…
2024-10-03Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth ManagementBearishWealthionThe broad market carries outsized risk from election uncertainty, potential tax legislation changes, and…
2024-09-30James AitkenFounder, Aitken AdvisorsBullishHidden ForcesIf asset prices rose 30%+ during allegedly 'restrictive' monetary policy with fiscal deficits at 6-7% of GDP…
2024-09-28Tavi CostaPartner, Crescat CapitalBearishWealthionUS equities are highly overvalued on the CAPE ratio while the yield curve is steepening from one of the…
2024-09-27Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishThe CompoundIn every historical instance where the Fed cut rates without a recession (7 of 7 episodes), stocks were never…
2024-09-26Daniel LacalleChief Economist & CIO, TressisBullishWealthionThe scale of fiscal imbalances makes central banks almost inevitably accommodative going forward, so markets…
2024-09-23Bill NygrenPortfolio manager, Oakmark FundsBearishCNBC TelevisionThe S&P 500 is far less diversified than investors assume, with ~4-5 mega-cap tech names individually larger…
2024-09-21Vincent DeluardGlobal Macro Strategist, StoneXBullishWealthion50bp rate cut with 3% real GDP growth, near-record-low unemployment, and likely post-election fiscal…
2024-09-19Vincent DeluardGlobal Macro Strategist, StoneXBullishWealthionFed cutting 50bps while real GDP grows at 3% and inflation sits above target creates an unusually permissive…
2024-09-18Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder CapitalBullishWealthionGlobal liquidity cycle that troughed October 2022 is still rising and not expected to peak until late 2025, a…
2024-09-13Jurrien TimmerDirector of Global Macro, Fidelity InvestmentsBullishThe CompoundThe low-vol high-div index offers a 4.4% dividend yield, has built a massive multi-year base, and is now…
2024-09-11Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington InvestmentBearishOxbow AdvisorsNegative net national savings, deteriorating demographics, fiscal dominance, and declining real per capita…
2024-09-07Adam JohnsonFounder & Portfolio Manager, Bullseye Investment GroupBullishWealthionForward EPS of roughly $275 on a still-justified 22x multiple yields an S&P 500 target near 6,200 — about 10%…
2024-09-06Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago CapitalBearishWealthionUS equities are in an unsustainable bubble at all-time highs with rate cuts already priced in, making a…
2024-09-05Cathie WoodCEO & CIO, ARK InvestBearishARK InvestThe ratio of the highest market-cap US stock to the 75th-percentile stock is at 800—above the 1932 Great…
2024-09-04Eric WallersteinChief Macro Strategist, Clocktower GroupBullishForward GuidanceUS productivity gains from AI and tech, an economy less sensitive to interest rates dominated by cash-rich…
2024-09-04Adam JohnsonFounder & Portfolio Manager, Bullseye Investment GroupBullishWealthionGDP growth, 10-11% earnings growth to $275 EPS, falling inflation, and rate cuts justify a 22x multiple…
2024-08-31Marc FaberEditor, Gloom Boom & Doom ReportBearishWealthionReal inflation far exceeds government-reported CPI, making real GDP negative; with the consumer struggling…
2024-08-29Marc FaberEditor, Gloom Boom & Doom ReportBearishWealthionThe financial asset bubble has grown to dwarf the real economy, and history (e.g. Dow flat 1964–1982 but down…
2024-08-27Jeremy SchwartzGlobal CIO, WisdomTreeBullishForward GuidanceUS stocks trade at ~20x earnings (5% earnings yield), carry a ~3% equity premium over TIPS, and function as…
2024-08-24Jared DillianAuthor, The Daily DirtnapBearishWealthionPowell is a hawk who wants more inflation progress before cutting; his Jackson Hole speech will be hawkish…
2024-08-21Capital FlowsFounder, Capital Flows ResearchBullishForward GuidanceGDP is positive while the Fed is beginning a rate-cutting cycle — the opposite of 2022 — making a persistent…
2024-08-19Jessica RabeCo-Founder, DataTrek ResearchBullishThe CompoundHistorical pattern shows S&P 500 peaks in Q4 70% of the time since 1980 and in December 50% of the time, and…
2024-08-14Peter BoockvarCIO, OnePoint BFG Wealth PartnersBearishWealthionEarly-July highs likely mark the index peak for 2024 as AI megacaps face earnings scrutiny, rate-cut optimism…
2024-08-12Mel MattisonBullishForward GuidanceStructural passive fund flows from automatic payroll deductions create a perpetual marginal buyer that…
2024-08-12George RobertsonAuthor, The Monetary FrontierBullishForward GuidanceFiscal deficit spending remains at historically high levels while the Fed has effectively disconnected from…
2024-08-10Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices)Co-host, MacroVoices & Market HuddleShortMarko PapicThe July 2024 high is likely the cycle high as the AI/mag-7 narrative deflates, Yen carry trade unwind…
2024-08-08Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishThe Investor’s PodcastHussman's most predictive valuation measure places the US market above both its 1929 and December 2021…
2024-08-07Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishWealthionRoaring 2020s productivity boom from technology adoption will drive S&P 500 earnings to ~$400/share by…
2024-08-02Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters CapitalBullishForward GuidanceVIX term-structure inversion (spot over 3-month) is one of the most reliable short-term contra indicators…
2024-08-02Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, SimplifyBearishForward GuidancePassive inflows that artificially propped markets are turning negative as unemployment rises from years of…
2024-08-01Danny DayanCIO, DWD PartnersBullishForward GuidanceBond market's dovish pricing creates a floor under equity valuations and equities remain the only asset class…
2024-06-14Darius DaleFounder & CEO, 42 MacroBullishKris SidialTheir market regime model has been in a risk-on condition since November 2023, and 83% of the S&P 500's…
2024-05-23Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine CapitalBearishDoubleLine CapitalEqual-weighting the 500 largest US companies by revenue avoids momentum concentration risk present in…
2024-05-17Mohnish PabraiFund manager — Pabrai Investment FundsBullishMy First MillionFor over 99% of people, low-cost index funds (e.g. Vanguard ETFs) are the optimal vehicle because frictional…
2024-04-05Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR CapitalBearishThe Meb Faber ShowRoughly 80% of US equity outperformance over the past 30 years came from valuation re-rating vs. non-US…
2024-03-26Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRockBullishBloomberg TelevisionDeep US retirement system continuously channels long-term savings into domestic equities, supporting a…
2024-03-25Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishBloomberg PodcastsEconomy is growing while inflation moderates and the Fed put appears to be reinstated, supporting continued…
2024-02-14Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, AllianzBullishCNBC TelevisionUS equities can continue to climb even without Fed rate cuts because of strong earnings, a resilient domestic…
2024-01-03Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishReal EconomicsThe US market is still deflating from the 2021 super bubble, with profit margins and earnings yet to decline…
2023-12-22Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishBloomberg PodcastsRolling recoveries across housing, retail goods, and manufacturing—combined with chronic…
2023-12-20Warren BuffettChairman, Berkshire HathawayBullishOnefootHurdleOver many decades owning a cross-section of productive American businesses has overwhelmingly outperformed…
2023-12-19Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishResource TalksThe narrow mega-cap-led rally began broadening on November 13, 2023, with equal-weighted S&P 500…
2023-11-28Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategistNeutralMark MossCompeting forces of high interest rates and large fiscal deficits are roughly balanced, producing range-bound…
2023-10-24Bill NygrenPortfolio manager, Oakmark FundsBullishMillennial InvestingThe ratio of the 50th most expensive to the 50th cheapest S&P 500 stock by PE is ~7x versus a 33-year average…
2023-10-18Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine CapitalBearishDoubleLine CapitalUS stocks have gone from cheap relative to bonds 18 months ago to four times more expensive on a relative…
2023-10-02Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishCNBC TelevisionEarnings estimates for 2024 are rising as profit margins improve and the rolling recession fades, supporting…
2023-09-22Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishThe CompoundUS large-cap equities trade at a Shiller PE of ~29x versus the 100-year model's call of 16.8x — approximately…
2023-09-19Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishBloomberg TelevisionA productivity boom driven by the 2020s recovery, strong earnings growth, and an economy already…
2023-09-18Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU SternShortBloomberg TelevisionSticky inflation, rising oil prices, and central banks not done hiking create conditions for a ~10% decline…
2023-09-06Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishDavid RubensteinThe slow-moving impact of Fed rate hikes will torpedo the economy into a recession extending deep into 2024…
2023-09-05Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishDavid RubensteinThe 2021 bubble is still deflating and a recession extending deep into 2024 will compress profit margins and…
2023-09-03Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago CapitalBullishBrent Johnson Milkshakes Pod | Investing • FinanceCapital fleeing Europe, Asia, Australia, and EM will treat US stocks as a refuge from the global storm…
2023-08-18Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMOBearishBloomberg TelevisionRising interest rates depress real estate and deflate post-bubble asset prices, which Grantham expects to…
2023-08-16Bill NygrenPortfolio manager, Oakmark FundsBullishMorningstar, Inc.The valuation spread between the cheapest and most expensive S&P 500 deciles is ~60% wider than the 30-year…
2023-08-10Joe Terranova (Virtus)Chief market strategist, VirtusBearishBill NygrenRally attempts over the last 10 days have been consistently met with sellers and reversed intraday…
2023-08-05Patrick BoyleFinance professor; ex-hedge fund managerBullishinterviewInvestors concerned about extreme market-cap concentration in the S&P 500 may get better diversification from…
2023-06-30Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni ResearchBullishBloomberg TelevisionStrong US fiscal spending driving onshoring and infrastructure creates a supportive backdrop for equities…
2023-06-12Chris BloomstranPresident & CIO, Semper Augustus InvestmentsBearishBehind the Balance SheetProfit margins of 13.3% are artificially elevated by ~3pts from cheap corporate debt and ~1pt from the 2017…
2023-06-06Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeBullish on equities unless S&P exceeds ~33x forward earnings (~7900) or a recession materializes and cuts…
2023-06-05Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeCompanies that survived COVID, supply chain disruptions, and massive inflation without going bankrupt deserve…
2023-06-01Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR CapitalBearishDavid RubensteinEquity markets are pricing in a benign soft-landing while bond markets are pricing in multiple severe rate…
2023-06-01Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree CapitalBearishIvey Business SchoolAt ~19x P/E versus a 16x post-war average, with a 5.5% earnings yield that does not clear current inflation…
2023-05-23Mohnish PabraiFund manager — Pabrai Investment FundsBullishinterviewOwning a diversified index ensures exposure to the rare outlier compounders like Walmart and Costco without…
2023-05-18Joel GreenblattCo-CIO, Gotham Asset ManagementBullishThe Hedge Fund AssociationThe S&P 500 is at the 23rd percentile toward expensive by Gotham's metrics, implying sub-normal but still…
2023-05-15Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment CorpBullishCNBC TelevisionInflation has been declining for 12 straight months, the Fed is done hiking, and the financial cycle (rising…
2023-03-02Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine CapitalBearishDoubleLine CapitalThe stock market has been in a protracted bear market since Q4 2021, and real interest rates — which paused…
2023-02-23Cliff AsnessCo-founder/CIO, AQR CapitalBearishBloomberg TelevisionThe overall US stock market is no longer in a bubble but remains very expensive versus history, and is priced…
2023-01-31Jim ChanosShort seller — Chanos & Co (family office)ShortJeremy Lefebvre Makes MoneyThe S&P at 18x forward earnings with margins at all-time highs is vulnerable because no bear market in…
2023-01-30Host WallstreetwindowHost, WallStreetWindowBullishJeremy GranthamMarket internals turned up in October 2022, signaling the start of a cyclical bull market within a secular…
2023-01-30Michael SwansonFounder, WallStreetWindowBullishJeremy GranthamImproving market internals in fall 2022 signal a genuine cyclical bull market beginning, supported by…
2023-01-18Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree CapitalBearishBloomberg TelevisionEquity markets are currently pricing in significant optimism around a soft landing and Fed pivot, which Marks…
2023-01-06Bill MillerFounder, Miller Value Partners (retired)BullishCNBC TelevisionAfter the 2022 selloff, valuations are cheap enough that a random selection of stocks is likely to do well…
2023-01-03Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategistBearishPeter McCormackAfter 2022's valuation compression, 2023 will see the second shoe drop — actual earnings weakness — putting…
2022-12-11Michael BurryFounder, Scion Asset ManagementShortTicker Symbol: YOUS&P 500 remains overvalued with earnings compression still ahead for big tech and the broader market, with…
2022-12-10Michael BurryFounder, Scion Asset ManagementShortNew MoneyBurry's tweet 'you have no idea how short I am' and low 13F equity exposure (~26% of estimated capital…
2022-11-09Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTTBearishForexAnalytixA disorderly spike in Treasury yields triggered by the structural deficit funding gap would force risk-off…
2022-11-03Carl IcahnActivist investor — Icahn EnterprisesShortForbesInflation is structural and persistent, corporate debt taken on at cheap rates must now be refinanced at…
2022-10-27Rob ArnottFounder & chairman, Research AffiliatesBearishExcess ReturnsUS stocks at a Shiller P/E of 27x — matching the October 2007 pre-financial-crisis peak — remain expensive…
2022-09-13Kris SidialCo-CIO, Ambrus GroupBearishChat With TradersSub-5-delta SPX puts and VIX-linked instruments produce convex 50x+ payouts in 30%-+ crash events, and the…
2022-07-08Jim Laventhal Piper SandlerBullishCNBC Halftime CommitteeRally is a relief bounce, not a new bull — aggressive Fed plus hot near-term inflation prints could retest…
2022-06-27Benn EifertCo-founder & CIO, QVR AdvisorsNeutralSimplify Asset ManagementSystematic covered-call and cash-secured-put selling programs have materially shrunk since 2020, removing the…
2022-05-18Zoltan PozsarFounder, Ex Uno Plures; ex-Credit SuisseBearishYoung Scholars InitiativeThe Fed is deliberately engineering reverse wealth effects to crush demand in a shortage economy, and markets…
2022-04-27Chris BloomstranPresident & CIO, Semper Augustus InvestmentsBearishThe Meb Faber ShowDecomposition of S&P 500 returns shows starting conditions of record 13.4% profit margins, mid-20s P/E, and…
2022-04-26Meb FaberCo-founder & CIO, CambriaShortExcess ReturnsUS equities sit at historically extreme valuations (high CAPE) projecting near-zero real returns for the next…
2022-04-10Chris BloomstranPresident & CIO, Semper Augustus InvestmentsBearishPreston PyshWith profit margins at all-time highs (13.4%), PE at 23.6x, and dividend yield compressed to 1.3%, there is…
2021-12-17Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, FundstratBullishTom LeeMidterm-year math and post-big-return-year historical returns point to an ~11% base case for 2022, with the…
2021-10-22Dev KantesariaManaging partner, Valley Forge CapitalBullishPreston PyshThe ~5% S&P 500 earnings yield vs. the 1.4-1.5% 10-year Treasury represents a historically wide spread…
2021-06-28Jason KatzBullishFox Varney & CoFed is on hold for at least 18 months with no rate hike and taper not starting until late 2021/early 2022…
2021-04-10Benn EifertCo-founder & CIO, QVR AdvisorsShortFlirting with ModelsOverleveraged hedge funds and systematic programs that had been selling tail risk and suppressing deep OTM…
2021-04-10Benn EifertCo-founder & CIO, QVR AdvisorsBullishFlirting with Models30-delta S&P puts 2-3 months out represent the least crowded segment of the option-selling spectrum — still…
2020-12-17Thomas HayesBullishFox Claman CountdownFed holding short rates low through 2023, $120B/month in asset purchases, $900B fiscal bridge to full…
2020-12-02Peter LynchFormer manager, Fidelity Magellan FundBullishNACorporate profits growing 7-8% annually (doubling every decade) make equities far superior to 10-year…
2020-11-19Warren BuffettChairman, Berkshire HathawayBullishInvestor ArchiveGeopolitical crises including potential wars do not change the long-term value of productive businesses…
2020-11-19Warren BuffettChairman, Berkshire HathawayBullishInvestor ArchiveUS stocks are in a zone of reasonableness relative to current valuations and are clearly preferable to…
2020-11-19Bill GatesBullishWarren BuffettRelative to prevailing interest rates, equities remain a bargain despite nominal all-time highs, because…
2020-11-03Rob ArnottFounder & chairman, Research AffiliatesBearishInvestment Innovation Institute [i3]With the US Shiller PE in the low 30s—only exceeded at the 1929 peak and the apex of the tech bubble—forward…
2020-03-30Benn EifertCo-founder & CIO, QVR AdvisorsNeutralThe Alpha Exchange with Dean CurnuttAfter the vol spike, forward-looking volatility risk premia are now materially higher, making notionally…
2020-01-18Benn EifertCo-founder & CIO, QVR AdvisorsBullishMH HighlightsMassive structural, price-insensitive selling by pension funds doing call overwriting and put underwriting…
2019-09-24John BurbankFounder, Passport CapitalBullishKyle BassIn a risk-off deleveraging event driven by dollar strength and liquidity contraction, small caps suffer…
2019-03-08Chris Cole (Artemis)Founder & CIO, Artemis Capital ManagementBullishinterviewFed pivot away from rate hikes (Powell stopping hikes) has driven a sharp YTD rally with SPX running at…
2017-06-20David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg ResearchBearishCNBCStock market's implied reflation/growth-reacceleration thesis is low-odds given disinflation data, weak GDP…
2016-08-02Meb FaberCo-founder & CIO, CambriaNeutralInvest Like a Boss PodcastUS stocks are trading at a Shiller CAPE of ~25, above the historical average of 17, implying reduced future…
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The options tape

Notable options days

No notable options-tape days on SPY in the last 120 settled sessions (volume ≥ 2× or delta-dollar flow ≥ 2.5× the trailing 20-session baseline). Quiet is also information.