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Investors / stance tracking

What Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) is saying

Co-host, MacroVoices & Market Huddle

34 dated public stances tracked since 2023-09-14, most recently 2026-08-25. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices)'s public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

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34
tracked stances
13
themes
3
side flips
2026-08-25
last heard
Returns  90d -2.8% (n=24) · 180d -0.7% (n=11) · 1y -5.2% (n=6)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

GOLD — bearish2026-06-04 → bullish2026-08-25
USD — bullish2026-06-18 → bearish2026-08-25
GOLD — bullish2025-12-04 → bearish2026-06-04

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
OIL66 bullish2026-08-25
GOLD43 bullish / 1 bearish2026-08-25
COPPER33 bullish2026-06-04
SPX33 bearish2026-06-04
IBIT22 bullish2026-08-25
USD21 bullish / 1 bearish2026-08-25

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-08-25 IBIT bullish Macro Voices · video
Bitcoin benefits directly from Darius Dale's fiscal dominance and paradigm D thesis; deep in-the-money call on IBIT (Jan 15 2027 $32 call at $8.75, stock ~$39, ~$1.75 time value) provides capital-efficient defined-risk exposure with positive convexity vs.…
“a deep in the money call option as an alternative to actually owning the stock...a much more capital efficient way”
MacroVoices #546 Darius Dale: Darius Dale for POTUS 2028 (Updated Slide deck)
2026-08-25 GOLD bullish Macro Voices · video
Gold has completed a six-month 25% correction from its April blowoff peak; USD technical breakdown and the Treasury's bond buyback intervention now supply fresh bullish tailwinds absent in H1, supporting a retest of April highs near $4,800
“any retracement of $150 on any short-term tactical volatility I'm going to be using to buy dips”
MacroVoices #546 Darius Dale: Darius Dale for POTUS 2028 (Updated Slide deck)
2026-08-25 OIL bullish Macro Voices · video
Global crude market is structurally tight due to Strait of Hormuz closure risk and refining capacity constraints; large-fund positioning sits at only the 19th percentile of the past 3 years, meaning substantial sideline capital could chase a move toward the…
“oil can stay at elevated levels and even have a chance to take a shot up into the mid 90s”
MacroVoices #546 Darius Dale: Darius Dale for POTUS 2028 (Updated Slide deck)
2026-08-25 USD bearish Macro Voices · video
Bessant's bond buyback announcement broke key technical support in the dollar, neutralizing the prior bull market and likely triggering unwind of a crowded long position in major cross currencies, pointing to reversion toward the 96–100 DXY trading range of…
“this has neutralized the prior bull market”
MacroVoices #546 Darius Dale: Darius Dale for POTUS 2028 (Updated Slide deck)
2026-08-20 IBIT bullish Macro Voices · video
Fiscal dominance and financial repression make Bitcoin a scarce-asset beneficiary; buying the January 15 2027 $32 deep-in-the-money call at $8.75 (stock ~$39, $7 intrinsic/$1.75 time value) offers capital-efficient long exposure with defined maximum loss of…
“high delta participation with less capital is a great way of putting on the trade”
MacroVoices #546 Darius Dale: Darius Dale for POTUS 2028
2026-08-20 OIL bullish Macro Voices · video
Geopolitical supply tightness from diminished Strait of Hormuz reopening probability keeps oil structurally elevated, while light speculative positioning (19th percentile on 3-year lookback) means sideline capital could amplify a move toward mid-$90s
“oil can stay at these elevated levels and even have a chance to take a shot up into the mid90s”
MacroVoices #546 Darius Dale: Darius Dale for POTUS 2028
2026-08-13 OIL bullish Macro Voices · video
Middle East supply disruptions (Strait of Hormuz situation) keep oil markets structurally stressed, supporting fair value at $80+ with headline-driven upside potential toward the recent $90 level, while a return to June lows near $65 is implausible given the…
“I think oil has room to strengthen”
MacroVoices #545 Michael Howell: Warsh vs. The Markets
2026-08-13 long GOLD / short GOLD spread Macro Voices · video
Gold is at a tactical inflection point after its correction and will recover toward the April high near GLD $450 over the next two months; the steep right-tail call skew makes a bull call spread more capital-efficient than an outright call, delivering nearly…
“we're risking about $10 to make about 30 if we are right”
MacroVoices #545 Michael Howell: Warsh vs. The Markets
2026-07-23 long GOLD / long GOLD / short GOLD hedge Macro Voices · video
Initiate long GLD exposure after a 30% six-month correction by wrapping shares in a low-cost collar—downside protection via a put spread offsets one more corrective leg while capping upside at 10% lets the hedge be nearly self-financing during a fragile early…
“own the GLD at around $376, but wrap the position in a short-term risk corridor through the September 18th expiration”
MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns
2026-07-16 long ENERGY / long LNG hedge Macro Voices · video
Cheniere Energy is the cleanest US-listed expression of the LNG energy-security and AI-power-demand structural tailwind; stock technically broke above its descending trendline from the March peak and reclaimed its 50-day MA after a 25% correction, signaling a…
“the cleanest expression is to simply buy the underlying shares”
MacroVoices #541 Dr. Anas Alhajji: Bab el-Mandeb: The Next Oil Chokepoint Nobody's Watching
2026-06-25 NATURAL GAS DECEMBER 2026 FUTURES (BULL CALL SPREAD) bullish Macro Voices · video
AI-driven power demand creates a structural bottleneck where natural gas is the only real-world bridge fuel; December 2026 futures are basing at yearly lows, offering convex upside via defined-risk bull call spreads while avoiding the negative roll yield drag…
“I've been looking at the December 2026 natural gas futures contract, which is basing along its yearly lows... bull call spreads”
MacroVoices #538 Lyn Alden: Is The War Really Over and What’s Next For Markets?
2026-06-18 DBA bullish Macro Voices · video
Shipping disruptions through Hormuz prevented fertilizers and crop chemicals from reaching farms during planting season, creating a delayed agricultural tightening story that plays out Q4 2026 into Q1 2027
“buy the $27 strike call for $1.70 and sell the $30 strike call for 80”
MacroVoices #537 Brent Johnson: There’s No Turning Back
2026-06-18 USD bullish Macro Voices · video
The euro remains below its 50-day moving average and is making lower lows as capital flows into USD-denominated assets, indicating continued dollar strength and euro weakness
“the euro remains below the 50-day moving average, breaking to lower lows”
MacroVoices #537 Brent Johnson: There’s No Turning Back
2026-06-11 XLV bullish Macro Voices · video
Healthcare is the most underowned sector in the S&P (shrunk from 16% to 8% weight despite aging baby boomers) and quant momentum funds are systematically shorting it to fund long semiconductor positions, creating a coiled rotation opportunity
“positioning for a rotation back into healthcare, one of the most underowned and unloved parts of the market”
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
2026-06-04 GOLD bearish Macro Voices · video
Gold is in a distributive four-month consolidation after a parabolic blowoff, with price action showing every rally failing, trend below moving averages, and macro headwinds from a strengthening dollar and rising rates
“the trend is clearly lower and it's got macro headwinds”
MacroVoices #535 Michael Every: NAFTA and NAPTHA – Warcraft & Fartcraft
2026-06-04 SPX bearish Macro Voices · video
The S&P 500 is in a short-term overbought condition after one of only four comparable rallies in 20 years, exhibiting failed rallies and early distribution, creating very poor asymmetry for pressing higher and making hedging or reducing exposure the logical…
“a very poor asymmetry at this moment for pressing the market higher”
MacroVoices #535 Michael Every: NAFTA and NAPTHA – Warcraft & Fartcraft
2026-06-04 PAVE bullish Macro Voices · video
Policy is shifting from supporting financial assets toward rebuilding physical economic capacity (infrastructure, supply chains, ports, manufacturing), creating a structural tailwind for US infrastructure equities, paired with a near-term protective put given…
“positioning for a broader industrial rebuild theme through the PAVE ETF”
90d -5.6%
MacroVoices #535 Michael Every: NAFTA and NAPTHA – Warcraft & Fartcraft
2026-06-04 COPPER bullish Macro Voices · video
Copper is the most technically constructive commodity chart, trading at 52-week highs with pullbacks consistently being bought and clear upside momentum toward the $7 level
“old dips continue to be bought and it has very clear momentum”
90d -0.5%
MacroVoices #535 Michael Every: NAFTA and NAPTHA – Warcraft & Fartcraft
2026-05-28 URANIUM bullish Macro Voices · video
The Strait of Hormuz energy shock is accelerating a strategic shift from hydrocarbon dependency ('molecules') toward nuclear power and the uranium fuel cycle, repricing uranium equities higher over the medium term
“I'm looking at buying the $60 call for about $5.70 and selling the $70 call for about $3.50, creating a $10 wide bull call spread”
90d -5.3%
MacroVoices #534 Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Superpower War or Superpower Hug?
2026-05-28 USTS bearish Macro Voices · video
Unresolved Strait of Hormuz closure keeps energy-driven inflation elevated, preventing yields from declining materially and likely pushing the 10-year yield back toward prior highs
“very likely here that we could see the 10-year yield just come right back up toward the highs from last month”
90d +0.3%
MacroVoices #534 Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Superpower War or Superpower Hug?
2026-05-28 OIL owns Macro Voices · video
Strait of Hormuz closure has drawn down global inventories and any resolution still requires a replenishment cycle, keeping oil markets structurally tight and supporting prices back toward $100+
“I believe that oil has every opportunity to trade back toward 100 plus. So I'm using this weakness to be buying dips.”
90d -2.6%
MacroVoices #534 Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Superpower War or Superpower Hug?
2026-05-14 COPPER bullish Macro Voices · video
Copper has broken out to all-time highs and pullbacks are being bought, with individual copper equities not yet fully participating, suggesting further upside toward the $7 handle as the trend remains decisively bullish
“copper market remains decisively bullish here”
90d +0.0%
MacroVoices #532 Mike Green: Record Mechanical Flows
2026-05-14 USTS bearish Macro Voices · video
10-year yields have broken out to multi-month highs driven by oil-price inflation fears, trend is higher toward the 460-475 range seen in 2024-25, with no immediate catalyst to reverse
“the bond market looks like it wants to press to retest those levels driven by short-term inflation fears from higher oil prices”
90d +0.4%
MacroVoices #532 Mike Green: Record Mechanical Flows
2026-05-07 Commodities Broad bullish Macro Voices · video
Governments and corporations are being forced into structural commodity stockpiling as just-in-time supply chains fail and US naval protection becomes unreliable, creating a multi-year bid across energy, fertilizer, and industrial metals
“rather than taking outright exposure in the ETF itself, I want to express the view through a longer-dated call option on the DBC”
90d -5.9%
MacroVoices #531 Louis-Vincent Gave: Semiconductors, AI & Iran Conflict
2026-04-09 OIL bullish Macro Voices · video
Ceasefire reduced immediacy of the oil risk premium but not the structural disruption — Strait of Hormuz remains a live choke point, creating asymmetric upside for a defined-risk call spread at a 6:1 max payoff ratio
“risking $3 to control structure that can be worth as much as $20 at expiration”
90d -11.6%
MacroVoices #527 Adam Rozencwajg & Jim Bianco: What Comes Next After The Iran Crisis
2026-04-09 long OIL / short OIL spread Macro Voices · video
Ceasefire removed the immediacy of the Hormuz risk premium but not the structural disruption—Gulf infrastructure hit, supply chains broken, strait remains a live choke point—making defined-risk call spread exposure asymmetric: limited downside (net $3 debit)…
“risk a small defined premium for exposure to a market that still appears to have limited downside and a very meaningful upside”
MacroVoices #527 Adam Rozencwajg & Jim Bianco: What Comes Next After The Iran Crisis
2026-03-12 SPX bearish Macro Voices · video
MAG7 leadership has structurally broken down, systematic flow triggers are being hit, private credit redemption pressures are building, and the geopolitical situation is not resolved — conditions support a 10%+ peak-to-trough decline
“the new trend is actually down, there is zero evidence that the bulls have actually regained their footing”
90d -9.2% · 180d -15.6%
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco: Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict.
2026-03-12 OIL bullish Macro Voices · video
Oil's dip was bought at Fibonacci support and the right tail remains fat given the unresolved Hormuz insurance blockage, making bull call spreads an efficient defined-risk way to capture further upside
“if you're playing further upside on oil here, using bull call spreads is a very attractive way of approaching this”
90d +13.4% · 180d +23.3%
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco: Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict.
2026-03-12 short SPX / long SPX spread Macro Voices · video
With market hedges recently unwound and volatility likely to re-expand amid unresolved Iran/Hormuz risk and structural equity weakness, a defined-risk April put spread offers ~11:1 payoff convexity for ~80bps of index value
“paying a small percentage of portfolio value for a defined period of downside convexity is a reasonable way to reset protection”
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco: Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict.
2025-12-04 GOLD bullish Marko Papic · video
Gold completed a bullish breakout from a symmetrical triangle with confirming signals from silver breakout, gold miners at higher highs, and platinum turning up, pointing to a potential run to new all-time highs with measured move targets of 4930-5120
“there is a legitimate chance that in December we will see gold attempt to break out to an all-time new high”
90d +21.9% · 180d +6.4%
MacroVoices #509 Marko Papic: Geo-macro Outlook for 2026
2025-12-04 COPPER bullish Marko Papic · video
Copper has broken out to new cycle highs driven by staggering physical demand, with momentum indicators confirming the breakout and a measured move targeting the 575 level
“copper is definitely a hot place to be right now”
90d +9.5% · 180d +23.6%
MacroVoices #509 Marko Papic: Geo-macro Outlook for 2026
2024-08-10 GOLD bullish Marko Papic · video
Gold remains in a primary bull trend with higher highs and higher lows above all moving averages, though near-term correlation with risk assets in a volatility event warrants carrying zero-cost collar hedges to allow doubling down on any liquidity-driven dip
“gold remains in a primary bull trend; carrying a hedge wrap on gold here makes sense”
90d +8.6% · 180d +15.3% · 1y +35.1%
Geopolitically Promiscuous (Guest: Marko Papic)
2024-08-10 SPX bearish Marko Papic · video
The July 2024 high is likely the cycle high as the AI/mag-7 narrative deflates, Yen carry trade unwind removes a structural tailwind, and the market will form a topping pattern similar to mid-2007 with rallies to 5350-5400 offering shorting opportunities
“the high of the year is in my opinion; any rallies should be shorted”
90d -12.5% · 180d -14.4% · 1y -20.7%
Geopolitically Promiscuous (Guest: Marko Papic)
2023-09-14 long VOL / long OIL / long GOLD basket Harley Bassman · video
Equity, crude, and gold implied volatility are simultaneously at multi-year lows while entering the historically most volatile seasonal window (September-October), making long volatility across asset classes asymmetrically skewed to the upside
“it is so cheap to hedge here and to bet on long volatility whether through straddling these different markets”
90d -11.6% · 180d -9.6% · 1y -6.2%
MacroVoices #393 Harley Bassman: Convexity Spells Opportunity

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