Investors / stance tracking
What Patrick Ceresna is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCo-host, MacroVoices & Market Huddle
Media
63 dated public stances tracked since 2021-10-09, most recently 2026-10-22. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Patrick Ceresna's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Patrick Ceresna is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
63
tracked stances
22
themes
6
side flips
2026-10-22
last heard
Returns 90d +2.6% 50% correct · 22 calls · 180d +2.1% 42% correct · 12 calls · 1y -1.9% 29% correct · 7 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | USD | bullish | +0.4% | — | — |
| 2026-06-18 | DBA | bullish | +8.2% | — | — |
| 2026-06-11 | XLV | bullish | +8.6% | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | PAVE | bullish | -5.6% | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | GOLD | bearish | +2.1% | — | — |
| 2026-05-28 | URANIUM | bullish | -5.3% | — | — |
| 2026-05-28 | OIL | owns | -2.6% | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | USTS | bearish | +0.4% | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | COPPER | bullish | +0.0% | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | Commodities Broad | bullish | -5.9% | — | — |
| 2026-03-12 | SPX | bearish | -9.2% | -15.6% | — |
| 2026-02-19 | URANIUM | bullish | -10.9% | -19.1% | — |
| 2026-02-19 | OIL | bullish | +77.7% | +60.9% | — |
| 2025-12-04 | GOLD | bullish | +21.9% | +6.4% | — |
| 2025-12-04 | COPPER | bullish | +9.5% | +23.6% | — |
| 2024-08-10 | SPX | bearish | -12.5% | -14.4% | -20.7% |
| 2024-08-10 | GOLD | bullish | +8.6% | +15.3% | +35.1% |
| 2023-09-14 | long VOL / long OIL / long GOLD | basket | -11.6% | -9.6% | -6.2% |
| 2023-09-14 | SPX | bearish | -4.8% | -15.6% | -26.5% |
| 2023-09-14 | OIL | bullish | -19.5% | -9.6% | -13.9% |
| 2022-07-21 | USD | bullish | +6.4% | -2.6% | -1.1% |
| 2021-10-09 | USD | bullish | +1.2% | +5.2% | +20.0% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 5 | 3 bullish / 2 bearish | 2026-10-22 | |
| USD | 5 | 4 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-09-24 | |
| OIL | 4 | 4 bullish | 2026-09-10 | |
| SPX | 4 | 4 bearish | 2026-10-01 | |
| URANIUM | 4 | 3 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-22 | |
| COPPER | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-09-24 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-22
long BANKS / short DB / long DB
pair
Macro Voices · video
European financials have outperformed US financials by more than 2x since Liberation Day lows, but France's fiscal and political crisis undermines the durability of that rally, favoring JPMorgan's earnings resilience over Deutsche Bank's exposure to the…
“positioning for JP Morgan to regain relative leadership as the market reassesses the durability of Europe's banking recovery”
MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France
2026-10-22
long BANKS / short DB / long DB
pair
Macro Voices (feed) · video
JP Morgan's diversified earnings resilience should outperform Deutsche Bank, which is exposed to Europe's challenged banking environment of heavy sovereign borrowing, expensive energy, and limited policy room — EUFN has already gained 57% vs XLF's 27% since…
“we're positioning for JP Morgan to regain relative leadership as the market reassesses the durability of Europe's banking recovery”
Trading Desk - October 22nd 2026
2026-10-22
long BANKS / short DB / long DB
pair
Macro Voices (feed) · video
European financials outperformed US financials by more than 2x from liberation day lows but France's fiscal and energy crisis threatens the durability of Europe's banking recovery, favoring JPM's earnings resilience over Deutsche Bank's exposure
“positioning for JP Morgan to regain the relative leadership as the market reassesses the durability of Europe's banking recovery”
MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France
Dollar strength and elevated interest rates have locked gold and silver in a distribution cycle with no macro catalyst for reversal until a Fed pivot; gold is testing the $4,000 level with $3,600–$3,800 as the next support zone
“gold and silver remain in a distribution cycle”
MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France
Said again: 2026-10-22 (Macro Voices (feed)), 2026-10-22 (Macro Voices (feed))
Junk bonds have transitioned from simply tracking rate moves to now demanding a structurally wider credit spread over Treasuries, signaling deteriorating credit quality and rising risk premiums — CoreWeave-type stress is amplifying the move
“junk bonds remain structurally weak”
Trading Desk - October 22nd 2026
Said again: 2026-10-22 (Macro Voices (feed))
Uranium stocks have been incorrectly categorized alongside AI trades and are being sold in sympathy with the broader AI basket sell-off, pushing them to 52-week lows despite solid physical uranium prices; further distribution expected until the AI sector…
“uranium stocks have been basketed with many AI trades”
MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France
Private equity credit ETF has broken to fresh new lows as real deterioration continues in private credit, a risk the market stopped watching after initial first-half concerns faded
“we continue to see actually a deterioration in this part of the credit markets”
MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France
Said again: 2026-10-22 (Macro Voices (feed))
2026-10-17
long GOOGL / long GOOGL
other
The Market Huddle · video
Google has coiled in a 4-month horizontal triangle with unusually low implied volatility, setting up a $100-$150 directional break — cheap options favor a ratio straddle biased to the downside given broader market risk
“the very low volatility and tight range, there's lots of room that when this ultimately breaks”
AI STORY ALREADY DIED
2026-10-17
DTCR
bearish
The Market Huddle · video
Non-hyperscaler AI ETFs have already broken down with sequential lower highs, failed 50-day MAs, and broken multi-month support — mirroring the KOSPI's post-peak trajectory — while Mag 7 strength masks the carnage at the index level
“the AI story actually already died. The thing is the hyperscalers have not”
AI STORY ALREADY DIED
Healthcare ETF breaking to 52-week highs as institutional flows rotate out of AI/semiconductors into defensives amid a slowing-growth regime shift, with no election-cycle political headwinds dampening flows this cycle
“XLV ripped to 52-week highs on the healthcare”
AI STORY ALREADY DIED
Centrus Energy is expanding domestic enriched uranium supply capacity, making it a structural beneficiary of nuclear buildout; current sector selling pressure combined with elevated implied volatility allows selling the Jan-2028 $70 put at ~$10.25 premium —…
“we're putting on a long-term conviction, a commitment to potentially own the Centra shares 50% cheaper”
MacroVoices #554 Yasir Arafat: Mass Manufacturing Nuclear Power Plants
2026-10-15
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Macro Voices (feed) · video
A 25bp intraday yield reversal following hot CPI, a SOFR double-bottom signaling rate-hike expectations being pulled, and widening junk credit spreads (CoreWeave) are stacking intermarket evidence of a risk-off shift that makes Treasuries a defensive holding…
“Treasury bonds may be a defensive asset in this period”
MacroVoices #554 Yasir Arafat: Mass Manufacturing Nuclear Power Plants
2026-10-08
CAD FUTURES PUT
bearish
Macro Voices · video
Implied volatility on CAD below 5% is cheap relative to a recent 260-pip move in 27 days, and Brent Johnson's dollar-strength thesis points to further CAD weakness, making a defined-risk put the preferred vehicle over an outright futures short.
“buying the 70 put option expiring on November 6, 2026 with about 29 days remaining, quoted at 22 pips”
MacroVoices #553 Brent Johnson: Disparate Housewives
Broad equity weakness is masked by mega-cap resilience while the median S&P stock is already 16% off highs and breadth has collapsed; Q4 stacks multiple catalysts — full earnings season, two Fed meetings, midterm elections, Strait of Hormuz — while 3-month…
“buying the January 14th, 2027 S&P put option at the 7,430 strike with about 105 days remaining”
MacroVoices #552 David Rosenberg: Navigating The Noise
Said again: 2026-10-01 (Macro Voices)
2026-09-24
long USO / short USO
spread
Macro Voices · video
Oil volatility index is at the low end of its recent range while geopolitical disruption risk (Middle East pipelines, Russian refinery strikes) remains elevated, making a defined-risk bull call spread on USO an efficient way to position for renewed crude…
“capital efficient upside exposure to renewed oil rally with the downside limited to the premium committed”
MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle
2026-09-24
long USO / short USO
spread
Macro Voices · video
Geopolitical risk remains elevated while the oil volatility index has retreated toward range lows, creating a cheap, defined-risk vehicle to capture a move toward $120 crude by January 2027 via a bull call spread on USO.
“capital efficient upside exposure to renewed oil rally with the downside limited to the premium committed”
MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle
Despite crowded long positioning at the 100th percentile, dip-buyers immediately absorbed a 7% tariff-driven correction and drove prices back to 52-week highs, confirming ample sidelined demand and a durable bull trend with upside targets to 77.25
“the bulls came in right away and bought that dip”
MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle
Said again: 2026-09-24 (Macro Voices)
The US dollar has broken out of an 18-month trading range toward 52-week highs and the euro is the most vulnerable cross-currency as the largest DXY component, with a potential downside target of 108-110
“if the euro is destined to head down to this let's say 108 to 110 level on the downside”
MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle
Said again: 2026-10-01 (Macro Voices), 2026-10-08 (Macro Voices), 2026-10-08 (Macro Voices), 2026-10-22 (Macro Voices (feed)), 2026-10-22 (Macro Voices (feed))
Three-month VIX is at year lows despite fully capturing the election, the next earnings cycle, and upcoming jobs reports, making portfolio downside insurance unusually cheap at a time when market breadth has deteriorated to only 28% of stocks above their…
“the cost of insuring is about as cheap as it's been all year”
MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle
Said again: 2026-09-24 (Macro Voices)
2026-09-17
long Long Dur Treasuries / long Long Dur Treasuries
other
Macro Voices · video
TLT implied volatility at 12% sits at the bottom of its 1-year range while Bassman's fiscal credibility concerns, flattening yield curve, and mortgage convexity risks collectively argue for a large bond move in either direction, making a long strangle cheap…
“I want to own uncertainty through long volatility rather than pick the direction.”
MacroVoices #550 Harley Bassman: In FED We Trust
2026-09-17
long Long Dur Treasuries / long Long Dur Treasuries
other
Macro Voices · video
January TLT implied volatility at 12% is still near the bottom of its one-year range despite fiscal credibility concerns and mortgage convexity headwinds that Harley Bassman described, making a long strangle the preferred way to own uncertainty without…
“I want to own uncertainty through long volatility rather than pick the direction.”
MacroVoices #550 Harley Bassman: In FED We Trust
Physical supply disruption is already occurring (not merely feared), global oil inventories have fallen ~400 million barrels to dangerously thin levels, and large speculative short positioning remains stubbornly elevated creating persistent squeeze fuel
“the squeeze is underway... the disruption's occurring... shorts have stubbornly held onto their positions”
MacroVoices #549 Matt Barrie: AI-gent Provocateur
Said again: 2026-09-17 (Macro Voices), 2026-10-15 (Macro Voices (feed)), 2026-10-17 (The Market Huddle), 2026-10-22 (Macro Voices (feed)), 2026-10-22 (Macro Voices (feed))
U3O8 near $90 continues to trend higher and uranium miners are breaking out while correlating with gold miners, suggesting the sector has turned the corner and started a bullish phase
“uranium miners broke out and seem to continue to correlate with gold miners”
MacroVoices #549 Matt Barrie: AI-gent Provocateur
AI adoption is structurally accelerating while NVDA January 2027 options implied volatility has collapsed to near 1-year lows, making defined-risk upside convexity cheap; options provide downside cushion if market corrects into midterms while preserving…
“cheap, long-dated optionality, defined downside, positive Vega, and open-ended upside participation”
MacroVoices #549 Matt Barrie: AI-gent Provocateur
Said again: 2026-09-10 (Macro Voices)
2026-09-10
LONG JPY
bullish
Macro Voices · video
The yen has broken above its 50-week moving average for the first time in roughly 18 months, ending a decisive downtrend; remaining speculators are still deeply short and face further squeeze pressure, while a broadly weakening US dollar provides an…
“we've now broken on that yen above their 50 week moving average”
MacroVoices #549 Matt Barrie: AI-gent Provocateur
Gold has completed a six-month 25% correction from its April blowoff peak; USD technical breakdown and the Treasury's bond buyback intervention now supply fresh bullish tailwinds absent in H1, supporting a retest of April highs near $4,800
“any retracement of $150 on any short-term tactical volatility I'm going to be using to buy dips”
MacroVoices #546 Darius Dale: Darius Dale for POTUS 2028 (Updated Slide deck)
Said again: 2026-09-10 (Macro Voices), 2026-09-10 (Macro Voices), 2026-10-01 (Macro Voices)
Bessant's bond buyback announcement broke key technical support in the dollar, neutralizing the prior bull market and likely triggering unwind of a crowded long position in major cross currencies, pointing to reversion toward the 96–100 DXY trading range of…
“this has neutralized the prior bull market”
MacroVoices #546 Darius Dale: Darius Dale for POTUS 2028 (Updated Slide deck)
Said again: 2026-09-10 (Macro Voices)
Fiscal dominance and financial repression make Bitcoin a scarce-asset beneficiary; buying the January 15 2027 $32 deep-in-the-money call at $8.75 (stock ~$39, $7 intrinsic/$1.75 time value) offers capital-efficient long exposure with defined maximum loss of…
“high delta participation with less capital is a great way of putting on the trade”
MacroVoices #546 Darius Dale: Darius Dale for POTUS 2028
Said again: 2026-08-25 (Macro Voices)
2026-08-13
long GOLD / short GOLD
spread
Macro Voices · video
Gold is at a tactical inflection point after its correction and will recover toward the April high near GLD $450 over the next two months; the steep right-tail call skew makes a bull call spread more capital-efficient than an outright call, delivering nearly…
“we're risking about $10 to make about 30 if we are right”
MacroVoices #545 Michael Howell: Warsh vs. The Markets
2026-07-23
long GOLD / long GOLD / short GOLD
hedge
Macro Voices · video
Initiate long GLD exposure after a 30% six-month correction by wrapping shares in a low-cost collar—downside protection via a put spread offsets one more corrective leg while capping upside at 10% lets the hedge be nearly self-financing during a fragile early…
“own the GLD at around $376, but wrap the position in a short-term risk corridor through the September 18th expiration”
MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns
2026-07-23
long GOLD / long GOLD / short GOLD
spread
Macro Voices · video
Gold has corrected 30% over six months clearing speculative excess and war reescalation is beginning to price longer-term fiscal and financial repression consequences, but short-term fragility remains, so a risk corridor locks in upside participation while…
“I want to own the GLD at around $376”
MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns
2026-07-16
long ENERGY / long LNG
hedge
Macro Voices · video
Cheniere Energy is the cleanest US-listed expression of the LNG energy-security and AI-power-demand structural tailwind; stock technically broke above its descending trendline from the March peak and reclaimed its 50-day MA after a 25% correction, signaling a…
“the cleanest expression is to simply buy the underlying shares”
MacroVoices #541 Dr. Anas Alhajji: Bab el-Mandeb: The Next Oil Chokepoint Nobody's Watching
2026-07-16
long ENERGY / long LNG
hedge
Macro Voices · video
Cheniere Energy has completed a 25% correction from its March peak, reclaimed its 50-day moving average, and broken above the descending trend line, signaling a new bullish phase aligned with the structural US LNG buildout thesis; a 36-day protective put at…
“This is a straightforward way to stay long the energy security thesis while limiting the damage if the technical reversal fails.”
MacroVoices #541 Dr. Anas Alhajji: Bab el-Mandeb: The Next Oil Chokepoint Nobody's Watching
2026-06-25
NATURAL GAS DECEMBER 2026 FUTURES (BULL CALL SPREAD)
bullish
Macro Voices · video
AI-driven power demand creates a structural bottleneck where natural gas is the only real-world bridge fuel; December 2026 futures are basing at yearly lows, offering convex upside via defined-risk bull call spreads while avoiding the negative roll yield drag…
“I've been looking at the December 2026 natural gas futures contract, which is basing along its yearly lows... bull call spreads”
MacroVoices #538 Lyn Alden: Is The War Really Over and What’s Next For Markets?
2026-06-19
long DBA / short DBA
spread
Macro Voices · video
Hormuz closure disrupted fertilizer and chemical shipping during planting season; delayed agricultural tightening expected to emerge Q4 2026/Q1 2027, making a DBA bull call spread an efficient defined-risk way to capture the move with convexity over 7 months
“paying a relatively modest premium to position for a rebound and repricing in the agricultural basket over the next 7 months”
MacroVoices #537 Brent Johnson: There’s No Turning Back
Shipping disruptions through Hormuz prevented fertilizers and crop chemicals from reaching farms during planting season, creating a delayed agricultural tightening story that plays out Q4 2026 into Q1 2027
“buy the $27 strike call for $1.70 and sell the $30 strike call for 80”
90d +8.2%
MacroVoices #537 Brent Johnson: There’s No Turning Back
The euro remains below its 50-day moving average and is making lower lows as capital flows into USD-denominated assets, indicating continued dollar strength and euro weakness
“the euro remains below the 50-day moving average, breaking to lower lows”
90d +0.4%
MacroVoices #537 Brent Johnson: There’s No Turning Back
Said again: 2026-06-19 (Macro Voices), 2026-07-23 (Macro Voices)
Healthcare is the most underowned sector in the S&P (shrunk from 16% to 8% weight despite aging baby boomers) and quant momentum funds are systematically shorting it to fund long semiconductor positions, creating a coiled rotation opportunity
“positioning for a rotation back into healthcare, one of the most underowned and unloved parts of the market”
90d +8.6%
MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us
Gold is in a distributive four-month consolidation after a parabolic blowoff, with price action showing every rally failing, trend below moving averages, and macro headwinds from a strengthening dollar and rising rates
“the trend is clearly lower and it's got macro headwinds”
90d +2.1%
MacroVoices #535 Michael Every: NAFTA and NAPTHA – Warcraft & Fartcraft
2026-06-04
PAVE
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Policy is shifting from supporting financial assets toward rebuilding physical economic capacity (infrastructure, supply chains, ports, manufacturing), creating a structural tailwind for US infrastructure equities, paired with a near-term protective put given…
“positioning for a broader industrial rebuild theme through the PAVE ETF”
90d -5.6%
MacroVoices #535 Michael Every: NAFTA and NAPTHA – Warcraft & Fartcraft
Strait of Hormuz closure has drawn down global inventories and any resolution still requires a replenishment cycle, keeping oil markets structurally tight and supporting prices back toward $100+
“I believe that oil has every opportunity to trade back toward 100 plus. So I'm using this weakness to be buying dips.”
90d -2.6%
MacroVoices #534 Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Superpower War or Superpower Hug?
Said again: 2026-07-16 (Macro Voices), 2026-08-13 (Macro Voices), 2026-08-20 (Macro Voices), 2026-08-25 (Macro Voices)
The Strait of Hormuz energy shock is accelerating a strategic shift from hydrocarbon dependency ('molecules') toward nuclear power and the uranium fuel cycle, repricing uranium equities higher over the medium term
“I'm looking at buying the $60 call for about $5.70 and selling the $70 call for about $3.50, creating a $10 wide bull call spread”
90d -5.3%
MacroVoices #534 Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Superpower War or Superpower Hug?
Copper has broken out to all-time highs and pullbacks are being bought, with individual copper equities not yet fully participating, suggesting further upside toward the $7 handle as the trend remains decisively bullish
“copper market remains decisively bullish here”
90d +0.0%
MacroVoices #532 Mike Green: Record Mechanical Flows
Said again: 2026-06-04 (Macro Voices)
10-year yields have broken out to multi-month highs driven by oil-price inflation fears, trend is higher toward the 460-475 range seen in 2024-25, with no immediate catalyst to reverse
“the bond market looks like it wants to press to retest those levels driven by short-term inflation fears from higher oil prices”
90d +0.4%
MacroVoices #532 Mike Green: Record Mechanical Flows
Said again: 2026-05-28 (Macro Voices)
2026-05-07
Commodities Broad
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Governments and corporations are being forced into structural commodity stockpiling as just-in-time supply chains fail and US naval protection becomes unreliable, creating a multi-year bid across energy, fertilizer, and industrial metals
“rather than taking outright exposure in the ETF itself, I want to express the view through a longer-dated call option on the DBC”
90d -5.9%
MacroVoices #531 Louis-Vincent Gave: Semiconductors, AI & Iran Conflict
2026-04-16
long Long Dur Treasuries / long Long Dur Treasuries
hedge
Macro Voices · video
Near-term inflation risk keeps bond yields elevated and TLT under pressure (short-dated put spread profits), but eventual demand destruction and growth slowdown will reverse yields lower (long-dated call profits on duration rally); bond vol near one-year lows…
“use a short-dated downside spread to potentially monetize further short-term weakness in bonds while maintaining a longer-dated upside exposure”
MacroVoices #528 Luke Gromen: Hormuz Could Lead To a 1956 US Suez Moment
2026-04-16
long Long Dur Treasuries / long Long Dur Treasuries
spread
Macro Voices · video
Near-term inflation risk from the commodity shock will push bond yields higher, but eventual demand destruction and growth slowdown will bring long-term yields back down; a two-legged TLT options structure captures both parts of that sequence while defining…
“I'm structuring this as a paired trade that plays both parts of the sequence”
MacroVoices #528 Luke Gromen: Hormuz Could Lead To a 1956 US Suez Moment
2026-04-09
long OIL / short OIL
spread
Macro Voices · video
Ceasefire removed the immediacy of the Hormuz risk premium but not the structural disruption—Gulf infrastructure hit, supply chains broken, strait remains a live choke point—making defined-risk call spread exposure asymmetric: limited downside (net $3 debit)…
“risk a small defined premium for exposure to a market that still appears to have limited downside and a very meaningful upside”
MacroVoices #527 Adam Rozencwajg & Jim Bianco: What Comes Next After The Iran Crisis
2026-03-12
short SPX / long SPX
spread
Macro Voices · video
With market hedges recently unwound and volatility likely to re-expand amid unresolved Iran/Hormuz risk and structural equity weakness, a defined-risk April put spread offers ~11:1 payoff convexity for ~80bps of index value
“paying a small percentage of portfolio value for a defined period of downside convexity is a reasonable way to reset protection”
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco: Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict.
MAG7 leadership has structurally broken down, systematic flow triggers are being hit, private credit redemption pressures are building, and the geopolitical situation is not resolved — conditions support a 10%+ peak-to-trough decline
“the new trend is actually down, there is zero evidence that the bulls have actually regained their footing”
90d -9.2% · 180d -15.6%
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco: Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict.
Said again: 2026-06-04 (Macro Voices)
2026-02-19
short USD / long USD
hedge
Macro Voices · video
Structural capital flows into US dollar assets driven by stablecoin and economic statecraft architecture provide a persistent bid under USD, expressed short euro with a short-dated call spread hedge to absorb any early-entry squeeze in the prevailing euro…
“Express a structural bullish dollar view via the Euro futures, but use a shortdated call spread to manage the timing risk”
MacroVoices #520 Michael Every: USD Stablecoins in The Age of Economic Statecraft
Over a month of price action above the 50-day moving average with higher highs and higher lows on each pullback signals structural accumulation, pointing toward a potential breakout toward last summer's highs in the low 70s
“This is structurally an accumulated market”
90d +77.7% · 180d +60.9%
MacroVoices #520 Michael Every: USD Stablecoins in The Age of Economic Statecraft
Said again: 2026-03-12 (Macro Voices), 2026-04-09 (Macro Voices)
Bull trend technically intact with dips consistently bought, retracements holding moving averages and prior retracement zones, warranting benefit of the doubt to the bull case
“the bull trend is very much intact. Dips are being bought”
90d -10.9% · 180d -19.1%
MacroVoices #520 Michael Every: USD Stablecoins in The Age of Economic Statecraft
Gold completed a bullish breakout from a symmetrical triangle with confirming signals from silver breakout, gold miners at higher highs, and platinum turning up, pointing to a potential run to new all-time highs with measured move targets of 4930-5120
“there is a legitimate chance that in December we will see gold attempt to break out to an all-time new high”
90d +21.9% · 180d +6.4%
MacroVoices #509 Marko Papic: Geo-macro Outlook for 2026
Copper has broken out to new cycle highs driven by staggering physical demand, with momentum indicators confirming the breakout and a measured move targeting the 575 level
“copper is definitely a hot place to be right now”
90d +9.5% · 180d +23.6%
MacroVoices #509 Marko Papic: Geo-macro Outlook for 2026
Gold remains in a primary bull trend with higher highs and higher lows above all moving averages, though near-term correlation with risk assets in a volatility event warrants carrying zero-cost collar hedges to allow doubling down on any liquidity-driven dip
“gold remains in a primary bull trend; carrying a hedge wrap on gold here makes sense”
90d +8.6% · 180d +15.3% · 1y +35.1%
Geopolitically Promiscuous (Guest: Marko Papic)
The July 2024 high is likely the cycle high as the AI/mag-7 narrative deflates, Yen carry trade unwind removes a structural tailwind, and the market will form a topping pattern similar to mid-2007 with rallies to 5350-5400 offering shorting opportunities
“the high of the year is in my opinion; any rallies should be shorted”
90d -12.5% · 180d -14.4% · 1y -20.7%
Geopolitically Promiscuous (Guest: Marko Papic)
Bonds are acting as a partial safe haven and yields are drifting lower, but the outlook is not for a large bull move; bonds are a place to collect yield and hide during equity volatility without expecting big capital gains
“a place to hide pick up yield and find some Safe Haven during these difficult Market periods”
MacroVoices #438 Marko Papic: U.S. Presidential Race Risks & Complications for Markets
2023-09-14
long VOL / long OIL / long GOLD
basket
Harley Bassman · video
Equity, crude, and gold implied volatility are simultaneously at multi-year lows while entering the historically most volatile seasonal window (September-October), making long volatility across asset classes asymmetrically skewed to the upside
“it is so cheap to hedge here and to bet on long volatility whether through straddling these different markets”
90d -11.6% · 180d -9.6% · 1y -6.2%
MacroVoices #393 Harley Bassman: Convexity Spells Opportunity
WTI broke out to a new uptrend after cleanly testing the 50-day moving average in August; technical structure is bullish with next overhead target near 2022 highs in the mid-90s and potential for $100
90d -19.5% · 180d -9.6% · 1y -13.9%
MacroVoices #393 Harley Bassman: Convexity Spells Opportunity
Showing the 60 most recent of 63 tracked stances.
Idea Scout Weekly
Every Sunday: who said what across the tape we track — 1766 voices, 5,177 episodes and articles — with side-flips and points of disagreement called out. Free. How we track it.
Free · double opt-in · unsubscribe in one click