Investors / stance tracking
What Louis Vincent Gave is saying
Co-founder & CEO, Gavekal
57 dated public stances tracked since 2021-12-30, most recently 2026-07-28. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Louis Vincent Gave's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Louis Vincent Gave is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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57
tracked stances
32
themes
2
side flips
2026-07-28
last heard
Returns 90d +0.8% (n=29) · 180d +4.0% (n=27) · 1y +6.9% (n=17)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
USTS — bullish2025-12-15 → bearish2026-07-10
USTS — bearish2023-03-01 → bullish2025-12-15
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USTS | 6 | 1 bullish / 4 bearish / 1 neutral | 2026-07-28 | |
| ENERGY | 5 | 4 bullish / 1 neutral | 2026-07-28 | |
| USD | 4 | 4 bearish | 2026-07-10 | |
| China Equities | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-07-28 | |
| BABA | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-07-28 | |
| EMERGING MARKETS EQUITIES | 2 | 2 bullish | 2025-08-05 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-07-28
China Equities
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
AI capex boom is driving the same hardware-over-software rotation in China as in the US; Shenzhen-listed hardware companies are up ~45% over 12 months while Hong Kong-listed internet platforms lag badly, a divergence most investors miss by only watching the…
“anything linked to hardware has really crushed it in China just like in the US”
One Hour of Macro with Louis-Vincent Gave
2026-07-28
LONG JPY
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Japan's Ministry of Finance has instructed GPIF to repatriate overseas assets into yen and JGBs; with yen deeply undervalued, Japan running a trade surplus, and virtually no foreign holders of domestic assets there is no natural seller of yen to absorb the…
“if the yen goes up, I don't see how bond yields don't continue to go up”
One Hour of Macro with Louis-Vincent Gave
2026-07-28
USTS
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Japanese GPIF repatriation under Ministry of Finance direction will force massive selling of US Treasuries into a market with no natural bid, compounded by China money returning home and structurally higher energy costs — yields are breaking out despite the…
“this shift in Japanese policies towards telling the pension funds to repatriate is super bearish bond markets everywhere”
One Hour of Macro with Louis-Vincent Gave
2026-07-28
SPX
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
US exceptionalism is empirically fading — US equities have underperformed EM by 22%, Europe by 12%, and Japan by 17% since Trump's inauguration — while the S&P 500 is no longer a diversified bet at 40% tech concentration and the US net international…
“it makes sense on a valuation point of view, on investor positioning, given underlying fundamentals, and given the current momentum”
One Hour of Macro with Louis-Vincent Gave
2026-07-28
BABA
owns
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Alibaba is aggressively shrinking its share count via buybacks — the opposite of US tech peers now issuing dilutive stock — while trading at deep discount in a China that is a 'raging bargain' on cost of capital, labor, and living
“that's one of my biggest positions”
One Hour of Macro with Louis-Vincent Gave
2026-07-28
INDUSTRIALS
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
AI capex cycle creates the same hardware-over-software rotation in China as in the US, but Shenzhen (hardware) and Shanghai have surged ~45% while Hong Kong (internet platforms, software) has been down — the divergence is structural, not temporary
“Shenzhen is up like whatever it is 45% in the past 12 months and the Hang Seng is down”
One Hour of Macro Episode 1 - Louis Vincent Gave - CEO of Gavekal
2026-07-28
USTS
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Brazil's central bank fought inflation aggressively (having lived through 1990s hyperinflation) producing ~10% nominal yields against ~4.5-5% inflation — a real yield that developed-market bond holders cannot find anywhere, making EM inflation hawks like…
“The best performing bond markets in the past five years have been places like Brazil and South Africa”
One Hour of Macro Episode 1 - Louis Vincent Gave - CEO of Gavekal
2026-07-28
ENERGY
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Energy has been the best-performing sector globally over five years — beating tech — yet has shrunk from 5.5% to 3% of the S&P 500 through buybacks and M&A rather than capital issuance; in the inflationary quadrant it is the superior portfolio diversifier…
“The best performing sector for the past five years is energy — it's actually outperformed tech”
One Hour of Macro Episode 1 - Louis Vincent Gave - CEO of Gavekal
2026-07-28
SPX
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
US equities have underperformed Europe by 12%, Japan by 17%, and EM by 22% since Trump's inauguration — and US exceptionalism belief is near-universal while valuation, positioning, and momentum all point the same direction away from the US; the S&P 500 at 40%…
“Since Trump was sworn in, US equities have underperformed Europe by 12%, Japan by 17%, emerging markets by 22%”
One Hour of Macro Episode 1 - Louis Vincent Gave - CEO of Gavekal
2026-07-28
BABA
owns
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Alibaba is aggressively shrinking its share count (unlike US tech which is diluting) while restructuring its sprawling equity stakes and building its own RISC-V chips that could reduce Nvidia dependence — valuation is at a raging discount versus US internet…
“That's one of my biggest positions”
One Hour of Macro Episode 1 - Louis Vincent Gave - CEO of Gavekal
2026-07-28
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
GPIF repatriation forces selling of US Treasuries into a market that already has energy-driven inflation re-acceleration and Chinese money returning home — yields broke out to new highs even on the largest CPI downside surprise since 2011, signaling the bond…
“It's going to be a tough environment for bonds”
One Hour of Macro Episode 1 - Louis Vincent Gave - CEO of Gavekal
2026-07-28
long GLOBAL EQUITIES / long ENERGY / long GOLD / short USTS
basket
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
The inflationary quadrant driven by fiscal, monetary, and trade policies breaks the 40-year bond diversification role; the replacement portfolio is 60% equities for growth capture, 20% energy for inflationary-bust protection, and 20% metals for…
“the new portfolio is 60 equities, 20 energy, 20 metals”
One Hour of Macro with Louis-Vincent Gave
2026-07-28
long GLOBAL EQUITIES / long ENERGY / long GOLD
other
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
The 60/40 portfolio is dead because bonds no longer diversify equity drawdowns in an inflationary regime; replace the entire bond allocation with equal parts energy (inflationary-bust hedge) and metals (inflationary-boom hedge) while keeping equities at 60%
“The new portfolio is 60 equities, 20 energy, 20 metals”
One Hour of Macro Episode 1 - Louis Vincent Gave - CEO of Gavekal
2026-07-10
US REFINERS
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Global refinery capacity has been structurally destroyed by Russia-Ukraine mutual bombing raids and Iran war strikes on Gulf refineries, while no new refinery capacity is being built due to the EV transition thesis, creating a durable crack spread expansion…
“Marathon is going to be buying five or 10% of their stock uh like for the next few years”
Louis-Vincent Gave: Inside China's Plan to Kill the Dollar's Dominance
2026-07-10
USTS
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Structural bond bear market driven by governments running 4-7% fiscal deficits at full employment, persistent inflation, and looming Japanese capital repatriation as JGB yields rise to levels competitive with global alternatives, removing the key marginal…
“we're in a structural bond bear market”
Louis-Vincent Gave: Inside China's Plan to Kill the Dollar's Dominance
2026-07-10
Commodities Broad
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Loss of US sea-lane control demonstrated in the Iran conflict means countries must self-insure via physical commodity stockpiles (fertilizer, oil, rare earths, pharmaceuticals), creating double demand as depleted inventories are rebuilt AND new storage…
“you need to stockpile whatever you need... you can no longer assume that you can throw money at a problem and have it fixed”
Louis-Vincent Gave: Inside China's Plan to Kill the Dollar's Dominance
2026-07-10
GOLD
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
The 2022 seizure of Russian sovereign and private assets without legal process broke the West's key comparative advantage—rule of law—causing EM central banks and wealthy individuals globally to rotate from OECD bonds into gold as a reserve asset that cannot…
“the lesson of 2022 was don't buy treasuries, buy gold”
Louis-Vincent Gave: Inside China's Plan to Kill the Dollar's Dominance
2026-07-10
USD
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
MAG7 stocks have served as a de facto global reserve asset driving structural dollar demand; unwinding of the AI/hyperscaler trade removes that bid, and the dollar has already failed to rally in conditions that should have been highly favorable (rate hikes…
Louis-Vincent Gave: Inside China's Plan to Kill the Dollar's Dominance
2026-07-10
long BANKS / long GLOBAL CYCLICALS / short US TECH/AI SECTOR
pair
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Global financials and cyclicals are underowned with reasonable valuations and building momentum in a steepening-curve, weakening-dollar environment, while AI/tech is massively crowded, overvalued, and faces Chinese open-source commoditization of both LLMs and…
“do I buy the tech or like super crowded... I'd be overweight cyclicals and financials”
Louis-Vincent Gave: Inside China's Plan to Kill the Dollar's Dominance
2026-06-28
OTM
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
FX implied volatility is unusually cheap despite geopolitical uncertainty, making yen OTM calls inexpensive portfolio insurance against two tail risks simultaneously: a sudden wave of Japanese capital repatriation that would force selling of US Treasuries and…
“buying yen calls for me today is essentially buying house insurance for your portfolio”
There's Going To Be One Hell Of A Hangover When The Market Party Ends | Louis Gave
2026-06-28
JAPANESE BANK STOCKS
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
BOJ rate normalization has steepened Japan's yield curve by roughly 300 basis points (1-to-30yr), directly expanding bank net interest margins, while simultaneous government fiscal stimulus and rising corporate capex create a broad economic tailwind that…
“Japan financials have absolutely crushed it...monster performance by financials in Japan”
There's Going To Be One Hell Of A Hangover When The Market Party Ends | Louis Gave
2026-06-28
International Dev
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Bank share performance is a leading indicator of economic health, and financials in Japan, Korea, China, and Canada are all outperforming while US banks trade sideways, pointing to healthier underlying activity internationally and making global financials an…
“in most international markets, banks are doing okay...perhaps that's not a bad place to redeploy capital”
There's Going To Be One Hell Of A Hangover When The Market Party Ends | Louis Gave
2026-06-28
LATIN AMERICAN EQUITIES
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
A durable rightward political shift across Ecuador, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Peru, and now Colombia is improving governance, attracting market-supportive policies, and driving growth of local pension fund demand, all of which argue for a re-rating of assets…
“deeply deeply undervalued...very exciting changes occurring all across Latin America”
There's Going To Be One Hell Of A Hangover When The Market Party Ends | Louis Gave
2026-06-28
AI/SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Justifying $6.7T in projected AI capex through 2030 requires generating $2T per year in AI revenue—twice the entire global advertising industry—while investor positioning is crowded, valuations make no sense, and the only positive investment prism remaining…
“the valuations make no sense”
There's Going To Be One Hell Of A Hangover When The Market Party Ends | Louis Gave
2026-06-28
CHINESE EQUITIES (SHANGHAI/SHENZHEN LISTED)
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
World-class Chinese companies are emerging for the first time in EVs, electricity storage, telecoms, and robotics, and Beijing's QE-like monetary and fiscal stimulus can drive equity market gains independently of the weak consumer economy—replicating the…
“the emergence of genuine world-class companies...this is new, this is like Japan in the 1960s”
There's Going To Be One Hell Of A Hangover When The Market Party Ends | Louis Gave
2026-06-28
long GLOBAL EQUITIES (VALUE/FINANCIALS) / long ENERGY / long METALS
basket
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Replace the dead 60/40 bond-equity model with a 60/20/20 allocation across equities, energy, and metals—covering the three most likely macro scenarios (inflationary boom, inflationary bust, deflationary boom) while eliminating government bonds, which are a…
“60 equity, 20% energy, 20% metals...bonds for an asset class have been dead for 5 years”
There's Going To Be One Hell Of A Hangover When The Market Party Ends | Louis Gave
2026-05-07
OIL
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Iran has strong financial incentives to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed or tolled, so the market is wrong to price in a swift reopening via the forward curve at ~$80-85 in 6 months
“perhaps the better bet today is the idea that oil in 6 months time is still too cheap”
90d -14.9%
MacroVoices #531 Louis-Vincent Gave: Semiconductors, AI & Iran Conflict
2026-05-07
China Equities
bullish
Macro Voices · video
A rising RMB adds currency return on top of 6-7% dividend yields in Asian stocks, creating a ~12% total return with limited risk that will attract local savings currently parked in Mag-7, Bitcoin, and gold
“6% dividend yield, 6% on the currency. That's 12% without taking too much risk.”
90d -2.2%
MacroVoices #531 Louis-Vincent Gave: Semiconductors, AI & Iran Conflict
2026-05-07
SEMICONDUCTOR SECTOR (BROAD)
bearish
Macro Voices · video
Semiconductors have surged from 10% to 17% of the S&P 500 in a dynamic eerily similar to energy stocks peaking at 16% in 2008 during peak-oil mania, suggesting the sector is a capital-intensive cyclical that is now over-loved and approaching a blow-off top
“there's for me as I look at semiconductors today, there's a strong sense of deja vu”
MacroVoices #531 Louis-Vincent Gave: Semiconductors, AI & Iran Conflict
2026-05-07
OIL FORWARD CURVE (6-MONTH)
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Market is pricing in Hormuz reopening within weeks, but Iran's revenue incentives from tolls and elevated oil sales mean the strait stays effectively closed longer than consensus expects, making the 6-month forward price too low
“the market is very much pricing in the idea that the Straits of Hormuz are going to reopen... I'm personally dubious”
MacroVoices #531 Louis-Vincent Gave: Semiconductors, AI & Iran Conflict
2026-05-07
KS
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Samsung will be the most profitable company in the history of capitalism this year yet still trades at a single-digit PE, which is not fully priced in for that level of earnings
“Samsung is going to be the biggest, most profitable company that's ever been this year, and I don't think it's fully priced in”
MacroVoices #531 Louis-Vincent Gave: Semiconductors, AI & Iran Conflict
2026-05-07
RMB
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Both the US and China want a higher RMB as part of trade negotiations, it is the most undervalued currency in the world, and it already has strong upside momentum moving daily ahead of Trump-Xi summits
“the easiest trade in the easy trade bucket is the RMB moving up. Everybody wants it to happen. It is happening.”
MacroVoices #531 Louis-Vincent Gave: Semiconductors, AI & Iran Conflict
2026-03-12
long GLOBAL EQUITIES / long GOLD / long ENERGY
other
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
In a structurally inflationary world the classic 60/40 fails because bonds no longer hedge equity drawdowns — energy price spikes cause inflationary busts, so energy replaces bonds as the portfolio hedge and precious metals replace the deflation-hedge role of…
“60% equities, 20% precious metals, 20% energy — the 60/40 no longer works”
90d -8.9% · 180d -0.1%
Louis Gave: $120 Oil Breaks Everything — And Nobody Is Ready
2026-03-12
short Big Tech / long Em Equities
pair
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
US equities are 70% of MSCI on 22% of global GDP, with extreme investor positioning, stretched valuations, and deteriorating relative momentum — while EM offers better fundamentals, cheap valuations, and near-zero positioning, making a rotation from US to EM…
“I think we did start a period of underperformance in 2025”
90d -1.4% · 180d +0.5%
Louis Gave: $120 Oil Breaks Everything — And Nobody Is Ready
2025-12-15
NVDA
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Chinese open-source AI (DeepSeek, Qwen) has entered the market for free, with 80% of startups already using Chinese LLMs because of zero cost, destroying the US AI subscription monetization model and making Nvidia's valuation a price anomaly
“I think a massive price anomaly is the share price of Nvidia, and the share price of Facebook”
90d -3.9% · 180d -20.7%
Louis Vincent-Gave: China Just Ended 100 Years of American Dominance
2025-12-15
USTS
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Trump's Monroe Doctrine pivot — underwriting Argentina, pressuring Venezuela, redirecting strategic focus to Latin America — means US financial and geopolitical backing of the region, while yields have already dropped 200-300bps with another 300bps to go as…
“I think it's people are not thinking through this. This is so bullish Latin America.”
90d +0.7% · 180d -0.2%
Louis Vincent-Gave: China Just Ended 100 Years of American Dominance
2025-12-15
CHINESE EQUITIES
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
China now holds the lowest global costs of electricity, labor, and capital plus a massively undervalued currency after 7 years of forced supply-chain de-Westernization — the 'China uninvestable' narrative has structurally reversed since 2024 as these…
“China has been outperforming really quite handsomely since 2024. Most people don't realize it.”
Louis Vincent-Gave: China Just Ended 100 Years of American Dominance
2025-12-15
META
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
The market has already stopped rewarding AI capital spending — Oracle and SoftBank both broke the pattern — and the entire US AI profit model is unviable when China provides equivalent capability open-source at zero cost; this is a classic late-bull-market…
“when China enters a room, profits walk out. And that if you're competing with China, you've taken a wrong turn in your life”
90d +3.0% · 180d +8.2%
Louis Vincent-Gave: China Just Ended 100 Years of American Dominance
2025-08-05
China Equities
bullish
Wealthion · video
All five prisms check out — fundamentals strong (record trade surplus, cheap energy/capital/labor), valuations attractive versus US, momentum solid for 18 months, investor positioning still light, and government backstops every 10% dip — combined with a…
“Fundamentals are good, valuations are attractive, momentum is positive, investor positioning is light, and government support is there.”
90d +5.8% · 180d +5.2% · 1y -2.4%
Louis-Vincent Gave: The Dollar’s Breaking? China’s Winning? The End of U.S. Dominance?
2025-08-05
LATIN AMERICA EQUITIES
bullish
Wealthion · video
A weak dollar unlocks local central bank easing across the entire region; every Latin American country should cut 100–400 bps over the next 18 months, creating a massive and broad monetary tailwind
“Latin America is in a massive bull market, which always happens when the US dollar weakens.”
Louis-Vincent Gave: The Dollar’s Breaking? China’s Winning? The End of U.S. Dominance?
2025-08-05
USD
bearish
Wealthion · video
Dovish Fed trajectory plus a structural shift in USD correlation — now positively correlated to global risk — makes US assets less attractive to foreign capital, reinforcing a self-fulfilling downtrend that breaks only with a super-hawkish Fed or a major…
“We now live in a weak US dollar world. That means you need to own different types of assets than the ones you've owned for the past 14 years.”
90d -2.4% · 180d -1.3% · 1y -5.4%
Louis-Vincent Gave: The Dollar’s Breaking? China’s Winning? The End of U.S. Dominance?
2025-08-05
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITIES
bullish
Wealthion · video
Structurally weak USD historically benefits EM more than any other asset class by giving local central banks room to ease, and the cycle has already started with EM in a confirmed bull market
“Dollar down typically helps emerging markets more than most asset classes. And sure enough emerging markets do seem to be in a bull market.”
Louis-Vincent Gave: The Dollar’s Breaking? China’s Winning? The End of U.S. Dominance?
2025-08-05
ENERGY
neutral
Wealthion · video
Weak-dollar environments historically lift commodities broadly, and the current cycle is already confirming that pattern with commodities grinding higher across the board — the exception being oil/energy which has not participated
“Typically commodities grind higher. All the commodities are grinding higher except for oil and energy.”
Louis-Vincent Gave: The Dollar’s Breaking? China’s Winning? The End of U.S. Dominance?
2025-01-28
AAPL
bearish
Wealthion · video
Apple has not grown sales in four years yet trades at roughly 35x earnings, making it an unattractive position to hold at a 6% index weight.
“Apple that hasn't grown its sales for four years now and that is trading at whatever it is 35 times earnings”
China Has ‘Leapfrogged’ the West | Louis Vincent Gave
2025-01-28
ENERGY
bullish
Wealthion · video
Oil inventories are at record lows, global stimulus (especially in China) supports commodity demand, and protectionism plus fiscal pump-priming in the US are inflationary; energy is the best portfolio cushion because it hedges the scenario where oil grinds…
“today the best cushion you can have is not government bonds, I'm not even sure it's gold anymore, I think the best cushion you can have is energy”
90d -6.6% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +15.6%
China Has ‘Leapfrogged’ the West | Louis Vincent Gave
2025-01-28
BRAZIL EQUITIES
bullish
Wealthion · video
Brazilian equities are at extreme undervaluation levels — 'being given in the streets' — offering better risk-adjusted value than developed markets currently.
“Brazil right now is being given in the streets”
China Has ‘Leapfrogged’ the West | Louis Vincent Gave
2025-01-28
long SPX / short SPX
ratio
Wealthion · video
The US market is severely distorted by extreme mega-cap concentration, making the equal-weighted S&P 500 a far more attractive exposure than the cap-weighted index where six names each consume 6% of the portfolio at stretched valuations.
“if I was going to buy the US I'd buy the equally weighted S&P 500 more than the market weighted”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
China Has ‘Leapfrogged’ the West | Louis Vincent Gave
2023-03-01
USD
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Two structural 'dams' are breaking simultaneously: three years of Chinese offshore dollar accumulation (~$275B/quarter current account deficit) will now be redeployed as China reopens, and Japan's likely YCC removal triggers capital repatriation — both drive…
“fundamentally massively bearish the US dollar”
90d -1.0% · 180d -2.4% · 1y -5.7%
Your Success Comes Down to Portfolio Sizing l Louis-Vincent Gave
2023-03-01
COPPER
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
China's reopening directly restores suppressed commodity demand regardless of where new factories are built — Vietnam, Indonesia, or China itself — all require iron ore, cement, and lumber; the tailwind is structural not yet exhausted
“wherever you build a factory you still need the iron ore, you still need the cement bags”
90d -11.1% · 180d -7.8% · 1y -5.9%
Your Success Comes Down to Portfolio Sizing l Louis-Vincent Gave
2023-03-01
GOLD
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Dollar weakness from simultaneous Chinese dollar recycling and Japan YCC removal supports gold as part of a broader commodity and EM bull case underpinned by Chinese demand resumption
90d +6.6% · 180d +4.3% · 1y +10.9%
Your Success Comes Down to Portfolio Sizing l Louis-Vincent Gave
2023-03-01
ENERGY
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Global energy balances are extremely tight; China's reopening restores ~1.5M barrels/day of demand, Russia is weaponizing supply cuts, and 20 years of underinvestment in efficient energy means this cycle will break via spiking energy prices rather than…
“you got to be long energy names instead of bonds”
90d -7.7% · 180d +5.3% · 1y +4.6%
Your Success Comes Down to Portfolio Sizing l Louis-Vincent Gave
2023-03-01
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITIES
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Weaker USD and steeper yield curves from the China reopening dollar recycling and Japan YCC removal historically benefit EM; EM countries still offer positive real rates and undervalued currencies unlike the developed world
“that should be pretty bullish emerging markets”
Your Success Comes Down to Portfolio Sizing l Louis-Vincent Gave
2023-03-01
USTS
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
China reopening and Japan's probable YCC removal both push yields higher and steepen curves globally, while bonds no longer provide portfolio diversification in an inflationary environment driven by tight energy
“fundamentally massively bearish...global government bonds”
90d -3.5% · 180d -0.3% · 1y -2.2%
Your Success Comes Down to Portfolio Sizing l Louis-Vincent Gave
2021-12-30
ENERGY
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Global energy faces a structural supply deficit as the U.S. shale boom ends (over $300B destroyed in the shale patch) and Chinese coal use has flatlined, yet the world needs 50–60 additional exajoules by end of 2023 with no identifiable source to fill the gap
“I happen to be an energy bull I think where we've set ourselves up for for a big energy squeeze”
90d +41.3% · 180d +39.6% · 1y +64.7%
MacroVoices #304 Louis-Vincent Gave: China, Russia, US Dollar & more
2021-12-30
USTS
neutral
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
China property developer bonds trading at 40–50 cents on the dollar will recover once a weak USD allows the PBoC to ease — developers will tap bank credit lines to buy back their discounted debt, booking 50 cents of profit per dollar that goes straight to…
“there's a terrific opportunity in high yield debt in china”
MacroVoices #304 Louis-Vincent Gave: China, Russia, US Dollar & more
2021-12-30
RUSSIAN EQUITIES / RUSSIAN MARKET
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Russia is the natural beneficiary as China exits cheap-coal-powered heavy industry — steel, aluminum, and petrochem production will migrate to Russia (cheap hydro/nuclear electricity, room to pollute), and Russia's hawkish rate cycle (2-yr yields up to 8.5%)…
“i am very bullish on russia i think a lot of things are lined up”
MacroVoices #304 Louis-Vincent Gave: China, Russia, US Dollar & more
2021-12-30
USD
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
The Fed cannot tighten meaningfully because doing so would trigger a bond market meltdown cascading into equities and real estate, so rates will persistently lag inflation — inflation is the intended policy outcome, not a bug, as it is the mechanism for…
“inflation is not a bug inflation is the feature”
90d -1.8% · 180d -8.3% · 1y -9.0%
MacroVoices #304 Louis-Vincent Gave: China, Russia, US Dollar & more
Idea Scout Weekly
Every Sunday: who said what across the tape we track — 845 voices, 2,419 episodes and articles — with side-flips and points of disagreement called out. Free. How we track it.
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