Investors / stance tracking
What Kevin Muir is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowIndependent trader — The Macro Tourist
26 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-10, most recently 2026-10-17. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Kevin Muir's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Kevin Muir is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
26
tracked stances
13
themes
3
side flips
2026-10-17
last heard
Returns 90d -1.3% 60% correct · 15 calls · 180d +1.3% 53% correct · 15 calls · 1y +2.3% 53% correct · 15 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-22 | SPX | bearish | -1.8% | -6.7% | -15.6% |
| 2025-10-22 | GOLD | bullish | +15.9% | +17.2% | -2.2% |
| 2025-10-22 | ENERGY | bullish | +9.3% | +27.3% | +58.3% |
| 2025-05-22 | SPX | bullish | +9.8% | +13.9% | +29.3% |
| 2025-05-21 | short Investment Grade Credit / long SPX | pair | +2.5% | +4.1% | +10.9% |
| 2025-05-21 | long International Dev / short SPX | pair | -1.1% | -1.2% | +1.0% |
| 2025-05-21 | VOL | bullish | -30.4% | -35.1% | -53.5% |
| 2025-05-21 | USTS | bearish | -3.4% | -5.7% | -4.6% |
| 2025-05-21 | USD | bearish | +0.0% | -2.5% | -4.3% |
| 2025-05-21 | Private Credit | bearish | -6.3% | +4.5% | +4.4% |
| 2025-02-18 | SPX | bearish | +2.4% | -5.8% | -13.6% |
| 2025-02-18 | GOLD | bullish | +10.1% | +13.4% | +69.3% |
| 2024-08-10 | USD | bullish | +3.3% | +7.2% | +0.8% |
| 2024-08-10 | NVDA | bearish | -35.4% | -18.0% | -67.0% |
| 2024-08-10 | Japan Equities | bullish | +5.6% | +7.2% | +21.2% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 3 | 1 bullish / 2 bearish | 2025-10-22 | |
| GOLD | 2 | 2 bullish | 2025-10-22 | |
| Private Credit | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-10-17 | |
| USD | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2025-05-21 | |
| USTS | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-10-17 | |
| VOL | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-10-17 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-17
long Small Caps / short Big Tech
pair
The Market Huddle · video
COT positioning at decade extremes — Nasdaq large specs at 100th percentile on 1/3/5-year lookbacks while Russell 2000 gross shorts hit a 10-year high — creates a mean-reversion pair trade favoring small caps over Nasdaq as the AI concentration trade unwinds
“I am actually long smalls, short Qs or the short NDX”
AI STORY ALREADY DIED
Realized S&P 500 stock correlation is at all-time historic lows, suppressing the VIX to ~15 while a 'shadow VIX' at normal correlation would be ~35 — when correlation reverts (it can only go so much lower), index vol is being systematically underpriced
“buy your straw hats in the winter. Buy your volatility when you can, not when you have to”
AI STORY ALREADY DIED
Rising borrowing costs are compounding stress on leveraged borrowers, with credit spreads starting to widen and further deterioration expected as the rate-driven economic headwind intensifies
“I am bearish credit spreads and they're only going to get worse”
AI STORY ALREADY DIED
2026-10-17
Private Credit
bearish
The Market Huddle · video
Private credit vehicles are breaking to fresh lows and represent an underappreciated disaster waiting to happen — the leverage embedded in these structures will be the epicenter of the next financial accident, likely worsening into year end as redemption…
“those things are disaster. I suspect they get worse into year end”
AI STORY ALREADY DIED
2026-10-17
FRONT-END RATES / SHORT-DURATION INSTRUMENTS (CARRY)
bullish
The Market Huddle · video
G7 curves are pricing in four rate cuts but Kevin believes only two will materialize, meaning front-end yields will stay elevated longer than consensus — offering positive carry while holding short-duration instruments in a way not available for years
“the front end is actually giving you an opportunity to be long it and earn carry”
AI STORY ALREADY DIED
2026-08-24
SOOXL
bearish
Wealthion · video
SOOXL's ~$35B AUM (effectively ~$100B notional exposure as a 3x ETF) acts as structural negative gamma in semiconductors — mechanically buying into rallies and selling into declines — amplifying drawdowns beyond fundamental moves and making the sector a…
“these leveraged ETFs are in essence a negative gamma that are exaggerating moves all over the place”
The Leveraged ETF Trap That Could Wreck Tech Stocks
2026-07-24
short Big Tech / long AI USER BENEFICIARIES — BIOTECH, FINANCIAL SERVICES
pair
Wealthion · video
AI overcapacity will commoditize compute and crush returns for builders while handing cheap capacity to user industries—at the same time, insider equity supply (Google's $35B secondary, SpaceX's $116B unlock, Anthropic/OpenAI eyeing windows) is structurally…
“buy the companies that are going to benefit from all that AI as opposed to the companies who are going to build it”
Kevin Muir: Why the Smart Money Is Selling AI Stocks
2025-10-22
SHORT-END RATES / FED TERMINAL RATE
bearish
Wealthion · video
With the terminal rate priced at 3% during an all-time-high stock market and tight credit spreads, any economic softness could push the terminal rate toward 2% much faster than priced in, making a bet on lower terminal rates an attractive hedge
“betting on the terminal rate not being three is probably a pretty good bet”
Kevin Muir: The Fiscal Flood Driving Global Reflation
China structurally diversifying reserves into gold after Russia's FX reserves were zeroed remains the primary driver of the gold bull market, and China remains woefully under-represented in gold reserves relative to where it needs to be
“they are still woefully under represented on gold and that is ultimately why gold is probably still headed a lot higher”
90d +15.9% · 180d +17.2% · 1y -2.2%
Kevin Muir: The Fiscal Flood Driving Global Reflation
US market concentration at 1929/2000/1962 levels and 23x forward earnings leaves no identifiable edge for bulls since everything good is already priced in, while AI capex is increasingly financed through SPVs reminiscent of Enron-era structures
“the concentration is at levels that is last seen since like 2000, 1962, and 1929”
90d -1.8% · 180d -6.7% · 1y -15.6%
Kevin Muir: The Fiscal Flood Driving Global Reflation
Energy is underloved and cheap while AI data center electricity demand and the emerging-market energy-per-capita hockey stick (India, Africa with cheap Chinese ICE cars) create massive demand tailwinds that supply-obsessed analysts are ignoring
“I love energy. I think energy is just forgotten. Nobody cares about it.”
90d +9.3% · 180d +27.3% · 1y +58.3%
Kevin Muir: The Fiscal Flood Driving Global Reflation
2025-10-22
NATURAL GAS
bullish
Wealthion · video
Natural gas is the only viable near-to-medium-term solution for meeting the electricity demand explosion from AI data centers, given that nuclear buildout timelines are too long to bridge the gap
“To me, it's pretty clear we're going to have to do nat gas.”
Kevin Muir: The Fiscal Flood Driving Global Reflation
Fiscal deficits running ~20% above the prior year are the dominant market force — not Fed policy — and until that fiscal impulse is withdrawn, equities continue to be supported regardless of rate levels
“The Fed doesn't matter. This is actually much more a fiscal show. And fiscal dominance means way more.”
90d +9.8% · 180d +13.9% · 1y +29.3%
Killing the Deficit Will Kill the Stock Market
2025-05-21
long International Dev / short SPX
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Rest-of-world equities are under-owned and accelerating fiscal stimulus while US equities are at a historic over-owned extreme with fiscal tailwinds already priced and foreign capital repatriating
“the US is at the most over-owned period in history”
90d -1.1% · 180d -1.2% · 1y +1.0%
America Is Risking A Liz Truss Moment | Kevin Muir
2025-05-21
short Investment Grade Credit / long SPX
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Near-term vol-control forced buying supports equities while a surge of delayed corporate bond issuance creates spread-widening supply pressure in credit
90d +2.5% · 180d +4.1% · 1y +10.9%
America Is Risking A Liz Truss Moment | Kevin Muir
FX implied vol is cheap relative to equities and fixed income while fiscal divergence and Trump policy uncertainty are about to drive unprecedented currency moves
“I really think that we are about to experience some moves in foreign exchange like we've never seen before”
90d -30.4% · 180d -35.1% · 1y -53.5%
America Is Risking A Liz Truss Moment | Kevin Muir
Expanding US fiscal deficits, foreign capital repatriation reducing overseas demand, and record-long institutional positioning set up a Liz Truss-style blow-up in US long bonds
“everyone's already long and yet prices keep going down”
90d -3.4% · 180d -5.7% · 1y -4.6%
America Is Risking A Liz Truss Moment | Kevin Muir
Dollar is the most overvalued major currency and reducing the US trade deficit structurally requires a significantly weaker dollar
“it's not everyone else is so cheap. Yours is just really expensive”
90d +0.0% · 180d -2.5% · 1y -4.3%
America Is Risking A Liz Truss Moment | Kevin Muir
2025-05-21
Private Credit
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
The weakest credit borrowers were pushed into private markets during the low-rate era and private credit is where the next default cycle disaster will originate, destroying the managers' fee streams and balance sheets
“I can short them and I think that they're going to be a disaster in the makings”
90d -6.3% · 180d +4.5% · 1y +4.4%
America Is Risking A Liz Truss Moment | Kevin Muir
2025-03-31
short SPX / long INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES — EUROPE, CANADA, ASIA
other
Hidden Forces · video
US fiscal deficit is contracting from ~7% to ~3% of GDP (DOGE, tariffs, deficit reduction), removing the primary engine of US equity outperformance, while Europe and Canada are expanding their deficits from ~2% to 5-10% to fund defense and economic…
“Fiscal spending in the rest of the world's going up, fiscal spending in the US is going down. Trade accordingly.”
Why Fiscal Policy Is What Really Matters For Investors | Kevin Muir
2025-02-18
long VOL / long MTBA
pair
Wealthion · video
FX volatility is cheap and widely ignored while the MOVE (bond vol) index is elevated and overpriced relative to fundamentals; buy cheap long-dated currency options and offset with long MBS—which embeds a short-bond-vol position via homeowner prepayment…
“owning long-dated volatility on currencies is the great trade for 2025”
The Market Is Walking Off a Cliff? | Kevin Muir
PBOC and global central banks are in a secular, permanent shift from US Treasuries into gold after Russia sanctions weaponized Swift, but the gold market is tiny vs the Treasury market making accumulation difficult and creating persistent upward price…
“I love gold... I think the People's Bank of China and all the... they're not going to go away”
90d +10.1% · 180d +13.4% · 1y +69.3%
The Market Is Walking Off a Cliff? | Kevin Muir
US stocks trade at ~23x NTM earnings near dot-com-era peaks, and Trump's drive to cut the fiscal deficit removes the core accounting driver—government deficits = private-sector credit—that powered the decade of US outperformance
“stock markets like to climb a wall of worry, now they're walking along a cliff of indifference”
90d +2.4% · 180d -5.8% · 1y -13.6%
The Market Is Walking Off a Cliff? | Kevin Muir
2024-08-10
Japan Equities
bullish
Marko Papic · video
The Nikkei's 25% crash was technically driven by Yen carry trade unwinds and was excessive relative to fundamentals; Japanese stocks were inexpensive to begin with, and as a normalizing Bank of Japan raises rates into an improving economy the market should…
“Japan being one of the top performing stock markets if not the top performing”
90d +5.6% · 180d +7.2% · 1y +21.2%
Geopolitically Promiscuous (Guest: Marko Papic)
Nvidia trades at ~35x sales versus Apple at 2x sales when Buffett bought it in 2014, and insider selling by management during what appears to be the 5th quarter of a typically 4-6 quarter capex cycle suggests the stock is massively overvalued relative to its…
“you're paying 35 times sales for Nvidia and calling it just like buying Apple in 2014”
90d -35.4% · 180d -18.0% · 1y -67.0%
Geopolitically Promiscuous (Guest: Marko Papic)
Canada's economy is weaker than the US, forcing the Bank of Canada to cut rates more aggressively than the Fed, making the currency the release valve for rate differentials and pressuring CAD lower
“the currency will be the outlet valve for the rate differentials”
90d +3.3% · 180d +7.2% · 1y +0.8%
Geopolitically Promiscuous (Guest: Marko Papic)
Idea Scout Weekly
Every Sunday: who said what across the tape we track — 1766 voices, 5,177 episodes and articles — with side-flips and points of disagreement called out. Free. How we track it.
Free · double opt-in · unsubscribe in one click