Investors / stance tracking
What Kevin Muir is saying
Independent trader — The Macro Tourist
15 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-10, most recently 2026-08-24. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Kevin Muir's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Kevin Muir is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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15
tracked stances
9
themes
0
side flips
2026-08-24
last heard
Returns 90d -1.5% (n=17) · 180d +1.0% (n=17) · 1y -0.5% (n=15)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 2 | 2 bullish | 2025-10-22 | |
| Japan Equities | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-08-10 | |
| NVDA | 1 | 1 bearish | 2024-08-10 | |
| SHORT-END RATES / FED TERMINAL RATE | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-10-22 | |
| SOOXL | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-08-24 | |
| SPX | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-05-22 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-08-24
SOOXL
bearish
Wealthion · video
SOOXL's ~$35B AUM (effectively ~$100B notional exposure as a 3x ETF) acts as structural negative gamma in semiconductors — mechanically buying into rallies and selling into declines — amplifying drawdowns beyond fundamental moves and making the sector a…
“these leveraged ETFs are in essence a negative gamma that are exaggerating moves all over the place”
The Leveraged ETF Trap That Could Wreck Tech Stocks
2026-07-24
short Big Tech / long AI USER BENEFICIARIES — BIOTECH, FINANCIAL SERVICES
pair
Wealthion · video
AI overcapacity will commoditize compute and crush returns for builders while handing cheap capacity to user industries—at the same time, insider equity supply (Google's $35B secondary, SpaceX's $116B unlock, Anthropic/OpenAI eyeing windows) is structurally…
“buy the companies that are going to benefit from all that AI as opposed to the companies who are going to build it”
Kevin Muir: Why the Smart Money Is Selling AI Stocks
2025-10-22
SHORT-END RATES / FED TERMINAL RATE
bearish
Wealthion · video
With the terminal rate priced at 3% during an all-time-high stock market and tight credit spreads, any economic softness could push the terminal rate toward 2% much faster than priced in, making a bet on lower terminal rates an attractive hedge
“betting on the terminal rate not being three is probably a pretty good bet”
Kevin Muir: The Fiscal Flood Driving Global Reflation
2025-10-22
GOLD
bullish
Wealthion · video
China structurally diversifying reserves into gold after Russia's FX reserves were zeroed remains the primary driver of the gold bull market, and China remains woefully under-represented in gold reserves relative to where it needs to be
“they are still woefully under represented on gold and that is ultimately why gold is probably still headed a lot higher”
90d +15.9% · 180d +17.2%
Kevin Muir: The Fiscal Flood Driving Global Reflation
2025-05-22
SPX
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Fiscal deficits running ~20% above the prior year are the dominant market force — not Fed policy — and until that fiscal impulse is withdrawn, equities continue to be supported regardless of rate levels
“The Fed doesn't matter. This is actually much more a fiscal show. And fiscal dominance means way more.”
90d +9.8% · 180d +13.9% · 1y +29.3%
Killing the Deficit Will Kill the Stock Market
2025-05-21
VOL
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
FX implied vol is cheap relative to equities and fixed income while fiscal divergence and Trump policy uncertainty are about to drive unprecedented currency moves
“I really think that we are about to experience some moves in foreign exchange like we've never seen before”
90d -30.4% · 180d -35.1% · 1y -53.5%
America Is Risking A Liz Truss Moment | Kevin Muir
2025-05-21
USTS
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Expanding US fiscal deficits, foreign capital repatriation reducing overseas demand, and record-long institutional positioning set up a Liz Truss-style blow-up in US long bonds
“everyone's already long and yet prices keep going down”
90d -3.4% · 180d -5.7% · 1y -4.6%
America Is Risking A Liz Truss Moment | Kevin Muir
2025-05-21
long International Dev / short SPX
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Rest-of-world equities are under-owned and accelerating fiscal stimulus while US equities are at a historic over-owned extreme with fiscal tailwinds already priced and foreign capital repatriating
“the US is at the most over-owned period in history”
90d -1.1% · 180d -1.2% · 1y +1.0%
America Is Risking A Liz Truss Moment | Kevin Muir
2025-05-21
short Investment Grade Credit / long SPX
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Near-term vol-control forced buying supports equities while a surge of delayed corporate bond issuance creates spread-widening supply pressure in credit
90d +2.5% · 180d +4.1% · 1y +10.9%
America Is Risking A Liz Truss Moment | Kevin Muir
2025-03-31
short SPX / long INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES — EUROPE, CANADA, ASIA
other
Hidden Forces · video
US fiscal deficit is contracting from ~7% to ~3% of GDP (DOGE, tariffs, deficit reduction), removing the primary engine of US equity outperformance, while Europe and Canada are expanding their deficits from ~2% to 5-10% to fund defense and economic…
“Fiscal spending in the rest of the world's going up, fiscal spending in the US is going down. Trade accordingly.”
Why Fiscal Policy Is What Really Matters For Investors | Kevin Muir
2025-02-18
GOLD
bullish
Wealthion · video
PBOC and global central banks are in a secular, permanent shift from US Treasuries into gold after Russia sanctions weaponized Swift, but the gold market is tiny vs the Treasury market making accumulation difficult and creating persistent upward price…
“I love gold... I think the People's Bank of China and all the... they're not going to go away”
90d +10.1% · 180d +13.4% · 1y +69.3%
The Market Is Walking Off a Cliff? | Kevin Muir
2025-02-18
long VOL / long MTBA
pair
Wealthion · video
FX volatility is cheap and widely ignored while the MOVE (bond vol) index is elevated and overpriced relative to fundamentals; buy cheap long-dated currency options and offset with long MBS—which embeds a short-bond-vol position via homeowner prepayment…
“owning long-dated volatility on currencies is the great trade for 2025”
The Market Is Walking Off a Cliff? | Kevin Muir
2024-08-10
Japan Equities
bullish
Marko Papic · video
The Nikkei's 25% crash was technically driven by Yen carry trade unwinds and was excessive relative to fundamentals; Japanese stocks were inexpensive to begin with, and as a normalizing Bank of Japan raises rates into an improving economy the market should…
“Japan being one of the top performing stock markets if not the top performing”
90d +5.6% · 180d +7.2% · 1y +21.2%
Geopolitically Promiscuous (Guest: Marko Papic)
2024-08-10
NVDA
bearish
Marko Papic · video
Nvidia trades at ~35x sales versus Apple at 2x sales when Buffett bought it in 2014, and insider selling by management during what appears to be the 5th quarter of a typically 4-6 quarter capex cycle suggests the stock is massively overvalued relative to its…
“you're paying 35 times sales for Nvidia and calling it just like buying Apple in 2014”
90d -35.4% · 180d -18.1% · 1y -67.1%
Geopolitically Promiscuous (Guest: Marko Papic)
2024-08-10
USD
bullish
Marko Papic · video
Canada's economy is weaker than the US, forcing the Bank of Canada to cut rates more aggressively than the Fed, making the currency the release valve for rate differentials and pressuring CAD lower
“the currency will be the outlet valve for the rate differentials”
90d -3.3% · 180d -7.2% · 1y -0.8%
Geopolitically Promiscuous (Guest: Marko Papic)
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