Investors / stance tracking
What Felix Zulauf is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowFounder, Zulauf Consulting
19 dated public stances tracked since 2014-06-06, most recently 2026-03-25. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Felix Zulauf's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Felix Zulauf is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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19
tracked stances
15
themes
0
side flips
2026-03-25
last heard
Returns 90d -3.2% 50% correct · 14 calls · 180d -6.5% 21% correct · 14 calls · 1y -6.7% 43% correct · 14 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | China Equities | bearish | +5.5% | +14.0% | +15.8% |
| 2024-12-21 | European Equities | bearish | -13.4% | -19.8% | -35.0% |
| 2024-12-21 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +5.7% | +11.2% | +10.6% |
| 2022-12-09 | USTS | bearish | +1.7% | -0.0% | +1.2% |
| 2022-12-09 | SPX | bearish | -0.0% | -9.4% | -19.3% |
| 2022-12-09 | GOLD | bullish | +1.9% | +7.8% | +9.9% |
| 2022-12-09 | Commodities Broad | bullish | -1.5% | -4.3% | -3.6% |
| 2021-04-09 | long SILVER / short GOLD | ratio | -0.4% | -5.8% | -6.4% |
| 2021-04-09 | SPX | bearish | -5.1% | -6.4% | -8.3% |
| 2021-04-09 | Gold Miners | owns | -3.0% | -12.6% | +15.6% |
| 2021-03-01 | VOL | bullish | -39.7% | -56.6% | -54.9% |
| 2021-03-01 | USTS | bearish | +0.9% | -1.9% | +1.2% |
| 2021-03-01 | USD | bearish | +1.5% | -1.4% | -6.2% |
| 2021-03-01 | Em Equities | bullish | +1.5% | -5.9% | -14.8% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commodities Broad | 2 | 2 bullish | 2024-12-21 | |
| SPX | 2 | 2 bearish | 2022-12-09 | |
| USTS | 2 | 2 bearish | 2022-12-09 | |
| BASE METALS | 1 | 1 bullish | 2021-03-01 | |
| China Equities | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-09-30 | |
| EUROPEAN SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-03-25 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-03-25
EUROPEAN SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES
bearish
Felix Zulauf · video
European economy will underperform expectations by a vast amount, forcing the ECB to cut rates far more aggressively than the market is currently pricing over the next 18 months
“the economy will underperform expectations by a vast amount and therefore they will cut”
Zulauf's Outlook on Interest Rates - March 11, 2026
2025-09-30
China Equities
bearish
Felix Zulauf · video
Trade war will deliver a major economic shock disproportionately absorbed by current-account surplus nations, while consensus has dramatically underpriced global recession risk (fund managers cut trade-war-recession probability from 40% to 12%)
“I think it's going to be a major shock for the world economy... felt very badly on surplus countries in particular”
90d +5.5% · 180d +14.0% · 1y +15.8%
Zulauf's Global Economy Outlook - September 25, 2025
2024-12-21
Commodities Broad
bullish
Wealthion · video
Protectionist deglobalization triggers infrastructure and defense spending surges, a currency devaluation race, and a structural rotation from growth assets into real assets — minerals, metals, oil, and energy — driving a multi-year commodity bull market
“I think you will have a run to the base in currencies... all of that leads for me to a bull market in real assets”
90d +5.7% · 180d +11.2% · 1y +10.6%
Market Recap: Insights From Felix Zulauf, Sven Carlin, Cem Karsan, and EJ Antoni
2024-12-21
European Equities
bearish
Wealthion · video
Europe's mercantilist export model is incompatible with rising nationalism; extreme green-energy policies have produced the world's highest electricity prices, destroying industrial competitiveness, while excessive regulation blocks reform for at least one…
“with tight regulation, high energy prices, you cannot be a winner in economic terms — you cannot”
90d -13.4% · 180d -19.8% · 1y -35.0%
Market Recap: Insights From Felix Zulauf, Sven Carlin, Cem Karsan, and EJ Antoni
2022-12-09
Commodities Broad
bullish
Felix Zulauf · video
Chronic underinvestment in hard assets combined with geopolitically-driven supply disruptions means this decade will see commodities structurally outperform financial assets, with the commodity cycle more important than the equity cycle
“the commodity cycle will be even more important than the equity market cycle”
90d -1.5% · 180d -4.3% · 1y -3.6%
Felix Zulauf: Credit Meltdown Will Force The Federal Reserve To Backtrack On Tight Money Policy
The Treasury is far behind on issuance and must replenish the Fed's general account, so a flood of new supply will push 10-year yields back toward the prior cycle high near 4.30% over the next four to eight weeks
“the market will be hit by a huge supply of treasuries and that means higher yields over the next four to eight weeks”
90d +1.7% · 180d -0.0% · 1y +1.2%
Felix Zulauf: Credit Meltdown Will Force The Federal Reserve To Backtrack On Tight Money Policy
European and Chinese recessions will hit multinational earnings hard (roughly 50% of S&P revenues are overseas), and disappointing earnings guidance—not just valuation compression—will drive the final leg lower toward the low-3000s by Q1 2023
“the decline that we see now to the final low will be the decline based on earnings guidance to the downside”
90d -0.0% · 180d -9.4% · 1y -19.3%
Felix Zulauf: Credit Meltdown Will Force The Federal Reserve To Backtrack On Tight Money Policy
Gold will reclaim a larger share of central bank reserves as nations outside the Western bloc stop storing savings in USD/EUR after those currencies were weaponized; gold is in a multi-year bottoming process with a potential final dip in Q1 before a sustained…
“I'm quite constructive on gold and I think it will then rise for several years”
90d +1.9% · 180d +7.8% · 1y +9.9%
Felix Zulauf: Credit Meltdown Will Force The Federal Reserve To Backtrack On Tight Money Policy
2021-04-09
long SILVER / short GOLD
ratio
Felix Zulauf · video
Silver will outperform gold in 2021 as the precious metals complex builds a base, offering better near-term relative returns even while spot gold is still working through its cyclical correction
“silver will probably outperform gold for this year”
90d -0.4% · 180d -5.8% · 1y -6.4%
Felix Zulauf's Outlook on Equities, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities (w/Raoul Pal)
Near the end of the second up-leg from the March 2020 low with a multi-week correction imminent (1987 analog: rising yields + falling dollar without recession or Fed tightening), one final up-leg possible into summer, then a major secular cycle top due…
“sometime between late summer of this year and spring of next year, that would be the ideal high for the cycle”
90d -5.1% · 180d -6.4% · 1y -8.3%
Felix Zulauf's Outlook on Equities, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities (w/Raoul Pal)
2021-04-09
KRW
bullish
Felix Zulauf · video
Asian economies running chronic current account surpluses attract capital inflows that create a virtuous self-reinforcing currency appreciation cycle; they will significantly outperform European currencies in the dollar bear market as capital flows shift…
“the Asian currencies will be stronger than the European currency”
Felix Zulauf's Outlook on Equities, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities (w/Raoul Pal)
2021-04-09
Gold Miners
owns
Felix Zulauf · video
Gold miners are leveraged long-term options on the gold price, owning in-ground reserves that get re-rated at secular bull market highs; the 2021 cyclical correction in gold creates repeated entry opportunities in fundamentally sound miners ahead of the next…
“I'm buying gold mining companies that I like fundamentally on each sell-off during this year”
90d -3.0% · 180d -12.6% · 1y +15.6%
Felix Zulauf's Outlook on Equities, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities (w/Raoul Pal)
Unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus combined with rising Asian export prices and strengthening Asian currencies against the dollar is driving a structural inflation cycle that will push 10Y yields to the 2%+ zone
“this is the sale of a generation for bonds and i was calling for a upcycle in bond yields”
90d +0.9% · 180d -1.9% · 1y +1.2%
Interview with Jeffrey Gundlach & Felix Zulauf 2 17 21
Said again: 2021-04-09 (Felix Zulauf)
The US has entered the fourth major dollar bear market since Bretton Woods; massive fiscal and monetary excess relative to other countries will drive a 25-30% dollar decline over three to four years as in prior cycles averaging about seven years
“the dollar could easily decline by 25 or 30 percent from current levels over that time span”
90d +1.5% · 180d -1.4% · 1y -6.2%
Interview with Jeffrey Gundlach & Felix Zulauf 2 17 21
Said again: 2021-04-09 (Felix Zulauf)
Extreme one-sided bullish positioning means even a small catalyst could cause a near-term doubling of the VIX as a shakeout before the market continues higher
“even next month we could see a doubling of the weeks for for a shakeout before it continues”
90d -39.7% · 180d -56.6% · 1y -54.9%
Interview with Jeffrey Gundlach & Felix Zulauf 2 17 21
2021-03-01
GLOBAL EQUITIES
bearish
Felix Zulauf · video
Extreme bullish positioning by both retail and professional investors (BofA survey showing 20-year high risk exposure) combined with algo-driven markets and rising bond yields mirrors the pre-1987 crash setup; a nasty surprise to the downside is coming even…
“sometimes from mid-year on this year to media next year... we will have a nasty surprise on the downside and if you get out get out quickly”
Interview with Jeffrey Gundlach & Felix Zulauf 2 17 21
2021-03-01
BASE METALS
bullish
Felix Zulauf · video
Dollar decline plus government-driven global infrastructure spending creates a powerful bull market in commodities, particularly base metals
“we have powerful bull marketing commodities... this is positive for commodities certainly for base metals”
Interview with Jeffrey Gundlach & Felix Zulauf 2 17 21
2021-03-01
Em Equities
bullish
Felix Zulauf · video
Major commodity producers are emerging economies, so the combination of dollar decline and a broad commodity bull market structurally favors overweighting emerging markets
“it makes a lot of sense to overweight emerging emerging economies”
90d +1.5% · 180d -5.9% · 1y -14.8%
Interview with Jeffrey Gundlach & Felix Zulauf 2 17 21
2014-06-06
EWH
short
Barron's Roundtable · video
Hong Kong banks are exposed ~$400B (125% of Hong Kong GDP) to China's credit bubble, and because the HKD peg prevents devaluation, rising rates in China will force Hong Kong rates higher, crushing bank stocks
“selling short the MSCI Hong Kong stock market ETF which is EWH”
Felix Zulauf: Danger for Chinese, U.S., Markets
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