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Investors / stance tracking

What Kyle Bass is saying

Founder/CIO, Hayman Capital

79 dated public stances tracked since 2013-04-08, most recently 2026-05-11. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Kyle Bass's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Kyle Bass is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.

79
tracked stances
53
themes
3
side flips
2026-05-11
last heard
Returns  90d +0.4% (n=41) · 180d +0.8% (n=38) · 1y +0.3% (n=36)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

USTS — bearish2023-07-11 → bullish2025-01-08
USD — bearish2023-07-11 → bullish2025-01-08
USD — bullish2022-09-01 → bearish2023-07-11

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
China Equities1010 bearish2026-05-11
DEFENSE44 bullish2026-04-30
USD42 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral2025-04-05
USTS42 bullish / 2 bearish2025-04-05
BANKS33 bearish2024-01-12
ENERGY22 bullish2026-04-30

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-05-11 China Equities bearish Kyle Bass · video
China's banking system is completely insolvent, the real estate market is down 40-50% and has been deteriorating for 4-5 years, and demographics are collapsing — leaving exports as the only functioning pillar of an otherwise structurally broken economy
“their banking system is completely insolvent. Their real estate market's down 40 to 50”
90d +1.9%
Kyle Bass 2025-DEC-15 Monday
2026-05-11 Long Dur Treasuries bullish Kyle Bass · video
New neutral Fed funds rate is 100bps below current levels, requiring 4-5 cuts over the coming year as post-COVID price-level comparisons ease and year-over-year inflation can print near zero without real deflation
“the new neutral rate is another 100 basis points below where it is today”
90d -3.0%
Kyle Bass 2025-DEC-15 Monday
2026-04-30 DEFENSE bullish Kyle Bass · video
US defense budget is set to increase ~50% toward 4.5% of GDP, and Europe is being forced to fund its own defense after decades of underspending, creating a sustained multi-year tailwind for defense and industrial firms
“that is going to be where the US economy is going to be driving defense spending for the next decade or so”
90d +8.2%
Hormuz's closure will not be felt evenly around the world, says Rochefort's Kyle Bass
2026-04-30 ENERGY bullish Kyle Bass · video
The US is a global powerhouse in hydrocarbons and will be insulated from Hormuz-closure pain that hits energy-import-dependent economies, making US energy producers relative beneficiaries
“We are the global powerhouse in both hydrocarbons and food and AI and technology”
Hormuz's closure will not be felt evenly around the world, says Rochefort's Kyle Bass
2025-12-15 China Equities bearish Kyle Bass · video
China's banking system is insolvent, real estate is down 40-50% and still declining, demographics are collapsing, and their only competitive advantage—cheap dirty coal electricity—is structural and not being reformed
“their banking system is completely insolvent. Their real estate market's down 40 to 50 and been circling the drain”
90d +3.8% · 180d +7.7%
New neutral rate is 100 bps below where it is today, says Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass
2025-12-15 QE bullish Kyle Bass · video
The Fed's balance sheet will need to expand again because the US is running at least a $1-2 trillion deficit and the balance sheet is effectively permanently floored around $6 trillion
“I think we're at a permanent 6 trillion balance sheet from now on and we're going to be expanding that again”
New neutral rate is 100 bps below where it is today, says Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass
2025-12-15 SHORT-TERM US INTEREST RATES / FED FUNDS RATE bearish Kyle Bass · video
The new neutral rate is ~100 bps below current levels, meaning the Fed has room for four or five cuts, making front-end rates likely to decline
“I think the new neutral rate's another 100 basis points below where it is today”
New neutral rate is 100 bps below where it is today, says Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass
2025-12-15 SHORT-DURATION RATES / FED RATE CUTS bearish Kyle Bass · video
The new neutral rate is 100 bps below current levels, meaning the Fed will need to deliver at least four or five cuts in the coming year as inflation laps normalize
“I think the new neutral rate's another 100 basis points below where it is today”
New neutral rate is 100 bps below where it is today, says Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass
2025-12-15 US SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES bearish Kyle Bass · video
New neutral Fed Funds rate is 100 basis points below current levels because inflation is normalizing after the COVID money-printing episode, implying 4–5 cuts ahead
“the new neutral rate's another 100 basis points below where it is today”
New neutral rate is 100 bps below where it is today, says Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass
2025-10-03 DEFENSE bullish Kyle Bass · video
European NATO members are being forced to increase defense spending toward and beyond 2% of GDP after years of underspending during an active ground war, creating a structural ramp in defense budgets
“Germany just last year spent 1.5% on GDP. There's been a ground war in Europe for 3 years.”
90d +5.9% · 180d +6.8%
U.S. must shift to a wartime footing on defense procurement, says Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass
2025-10-03 CRITICAL MINERALS bullish Kyle Bass · video
The $200B newly allocated to DoD explicitly includes critical minerals procurement, signaling strong government demand-driven tailwind for the sector
“pushing forward on critical minerals, on chip building, on defense technology”
U.S. must shift to a wartime footing on defense procurement, says Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass
2025-10-03 DOMESTIC SEMICONDUCTOR / CHIP MANUFACTURING bullish Kyle Bass · video
New $200B DoD allocation specifically targets chip building as a national security priority, providing direct government funding support to domestic semiconductor buildout
“pushing forward on critical minerals, on chip building, on defense technology”
U.S. must shift to a wartime footing on defense procurement, says Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass
2025-09-04 DEFENSE bullish Kyle Bass · video
The Big Beautiful Bill allocates $200B for rare earth processing/mining and shipbuilding plus $100B for tip-of-the-spear defense tech, directly funding a US military capacity buildup over the next 12-18 months
“there's $200 billion set aside for rare earth metals refining, processing, and mining...another hundred billion for tip of the spear defense tech”
90d +1.9% · 180d +23.9% · 1y +14.2%
U.S. and China are 'two superpowers engaging in hostage exchanges': Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass
2025-09-04 RARE EARTH MINING AND PROCESSING bullish Kyle Bass · video
US lacks rare magnet and rare earth processing capability needed for defense and AI competition with China, and the new $200B congressional allocation directly targets this bottleneck creating near-term demand
“we don't have the rare magnets...there's $200 billion set aside for rare earth metals refining, processing, and mining”
U.S. and China are 'two superpowers engaging in hostage exchanges': Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass
2025-09-04 China Equities bearish Kyle Bass · video
The Nvidia export deal with China felt like a 'hostage transfer' where both sides are buying time, implying the deal is strategically fragile and driven by mutual weakness rather than strength, making it a poor long-term bet
“what just happened felt like a hostage transfer...we are two superpowers engaging in hostage exchanges”
90d -2.3% · 180d +4.9% · 1y +4.7%
U.S. and China are 'two superpowers engaging in hostage exchanges': Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass
2025-09-04 BYD bearish Kyle Bass · video
Despite high quality, Chinese EVs face structural exclusion from US market due to tariffs and national security concerns, limiting their addressable market and growth in the world's largest auto market
“we must push back. We must have domestic industry”
90d +4.3% · 180d +5.5% · 1y +9.0%
U.S. and China are 'two superpowers engaging in hostage exchanges': Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass
2025-07-02 China Equities bearish video
China faces simultaneous real estate, banking, youth unemployment, and current account crises with ~350% debt-to-GDP and bond yields signaling 'economic winter'; US tariffs now threaten their sole bright spot—a $980B trade surplus—leaving no viable bailout…
“there's nothing that's going to bail China out of their economic spiral”
90d -12.1% · 180d -6.0% · 1y +11.4%
2025-07-02 DEFENSE bullish video
NATO is expected to move toward 5% of GDP defense spending driven by simultaneous conflicts in Europe and the Middle East plus an impending Taiwan contingency, forcing all developed Western nations to dramatically expand defense budgets regardless of deficit…
“you're going to see the developed West really expand defense spending”
90d +13.7% · 180d +17.9% · 1y +35.0%
2025-04-05 SPX bullish Kyle Bass · video
Forced volatility selling and VAR-model deleveraging have driven markets down 13-17% YTD, but there is an implicit administration 'put' roughly 5-6% lower from current levels, making the next couple of months a buying opportunity
“you start buying in the next couple of months”
90d +23.4% · 180d +33.4% · 1y +32.1%
Kyle Bass FULL interview Hayman Capital: Tariffs will work in long-term ~ 2025-APR-04 Friday
2025-04-05 China Equities bearish Kyle Bass · video
China's retaliatory tariffs hurt China more than the US given the asymmetric trade relationship (~$440B US imports from China vs ~$140B exports to China), and China's economy was already collapsing before this escalation
“if you want to do tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs against us with a relationship like that, we win”
90d -22.7% · 180d -41.1% · 1y -21.4%
Kyle Bass FULL interview Hayman Capital: Tariffs will work in long-term ~ 2025-APR-04 Friday
2025-04-05 VOL bearish Kyle Bass · video
When the VIX hits 40, historical precedent shows it has been a great time to buy risk assets, signaling a near-term entry point despite ongoing selling pressure
“when the VIX hits 40, historically, it has been a great time to buy things”
90d -36.3% · 180d -55.8% · 1y -55.5%
Kyle Bass FULL interview Hayman Capital: Tariffs will work in long-term ~ 2025-APR-04 Friday
2025-04-05 USTS bullish Kyle Bass · video
The Fed will be late to cut rates as GDP prints turn negative and stagflationary, forcing the front end lower while the long end stays elevated, steepening the yield curve
“the front end's got to come down because the next two GDP prints are going to be difficult”
90d -0.0% · 180d +3.2% · 1y +3.4%
Kyle Bass FULL interview Hayman Capital: Tariffs will work in long-term ~ 2025-APR-04 Friday
2025-04-05 USD neutral Kyle Bass · video
China was already in economic collapse before tariffs, runs a closed capital account, and is the world's largest importer of commodities paid in dollars, so a yuan devaluation would be self-destructive and their economy will suffer further as Western growth…
“China has already been dealing with an economic collapse for the last two years”
Kyle Bass FULL interview Hayman Capital: Tariffs will work in long-term ~ 2025-APR-04 Friday
2025-04-05 short USTS / long USTS pair Kyle Bass · video
The next two GDP prints will be weak and stagflationary, forcing a late Fed to eventually cut front-end rates while the long end stays elevated, steepening the yield curve
“the yield curve will steepen. The front end's got to come down”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
Kyle Bass FULL interview Hayman Capital: Tariffs will work in long-term ~ 2025-APR-04 Friday
2025-01-08 VIE bearish Kyle Bass · video
VIE-structured Chinese ADRs give investors zero legal ownership or liquidation claim on underlying Chinese assets, and are exempt from meaningful PCAOB audits, making them likely to go to zero.
“if it goes bankrupt and you own a VIE you get absolutely nothing, you have no claim on any assets”
Kyle Bass: Why the Chinese Economy is Going to Collapse
2025-01-08 USTS bullish Kyle Bass · video
Chinese bond yields collapsing below 2% (10yr ~1.75%, 30yr sub-2%) signal China is in recession, confirming Bass's thesis of economic collapse that the CCP will not officially acknowledge.
“the Chinese bond market is telling you that China is in a recession”
90d +4.1% · 180d +4.6% · 1y +8.6%
Kyle Bass: Why the Chinese Economy is Going to Collapse
2025-01-08 USD bullish Kyle Bass · video
The US represents 46% of global capital markets with the most innovative workforce and strongest rule of law, so global capital fleeing Chinese and other faltering economies will continue flowing into US assets.
“the rest of them will keep investing in US dollar denominated assets”
90d -4.6% · 180d -8.6% · 1y -4.8%
Kyle Bass: Why the Chinese Economy is Going to Collapse
2025-01-08 China Equities bearish Kyle Bass · video
China's banking system is insolvent due to 40% of assets lent to a collapsing real estate market, structural demographic collapse, and closed capital account, making any sustained equity recovery a fool's errand despite short-term government-announcement…
“it's of my opinion that they have about two trillion dollar equivalent of equity in their banking system”
90d -0.3% · 180d -24.8% · 1y -36.9%
Kyle Bass: Why the Chinese Economy is Going to Collapse
2025-01-08 BITCOIN bullish Kyle Bass · video
Global investors fleeing collapsing foreign currencies and mistrustful of fiat governance are rotating into Bitcoin as a dollar-alternative store of value, driving it above $106,000.
“some of those people will buy Bitcoin which is why you see it above 106,000”
90d -19.8% · 180d +13.9% · 1y -4.2%
Kyle Bass: Why the Chinese Economy is Going to Collapse
2025-01-08 CSI bearish Kyle Bass · video
China's banking system at 350% of GDP is insolvent due to a 30-50% real estate collapse, demographic implosion from unaffordable housing has cratered birth rates to 1.2, and the structural architecture of a closed-capital-account communist economy has never…
“investing in communism has never worked in the long run it never will”
Kyle Bass: Why the Chinese Economy is Going to Collapse
2024-11-27 WATER INFRASTRUCTURE / GROUNDWATER DEVELOPMENT bullish video
Structural water scarcity combined with the step-function cost of new supply (pipelines at $10–15M/mile, well fields, land rights) means retail water prices will rise exponentially faster than CPI, making sustainable groundwater development a high-return…
“the next price might be $3 a thousand, and they're just gonna have to average that in”
2024-11-27 SUN BELT / GROWTH-STATE LAND (TEXAS, TENNESSEE, FLORIDA) bullish video
Sustained population migration from high-tax, high-cost coastal jurisdictions to Texas, Tennessee, Florida, and the Southern coast is expanding the development envelope and compressing rural land at the urban fringe, driving durable appreciation
“Texas grew 75% last year it was the fastest growing Sovereign entity in the world”
2024-05-07 NORTH AMERICAN EQUITIES / STAY HOME IN NORTH AMERICA bullish Kyle Bass · video
US represents 25% of world GDP and 40% of capital markets while geopolitical and financial instability is breaking emerging and developed economies abroad, making North America the superior place to deploy capital
“investors better be thinking stay home and invest in The Innovation in North America”
Bass Says Investors Should Stay in North America
2024-05-07 INDUSTRIALS bullish Kyle Bass · video
National security imperatives and supply chain vulnerabilities (e.g., 95% of antibiotic APIs made in China) are forcing companies to reshore production, creating a durable multi-year investment tailwind in North American manufacturing
“reshoring is being more thoughtful about our supply chain”
90d -2.7% · 180d +8.4% · 1y +9.5%
Bass Says Investors Should Stay in North America
2024-05-07 US SUN BELT REAL ESTATE (FLORIDA, TENNESSEE, TEXAS) bullish Kyle Bass · video
Positive population and business migration into Sun Belt states creates durable demand for real estate, making it a compelling place to allocate capital
“Florida, Tennessee, Texas — states with positive migration — I think is a great place to put your capital”
Bass Says Investors Should Stay in North America
2024-05-07 POWER GENERATION / DATA CENTER POWER INFRASTRUCTURE bullish Kyle Bass · video
New hyperscale data centers each consume 200–600 MW versus less than 90 MW previously, requiring massive new power plant construction that will drive significant investment in power generation infrastructure
“new hyperscale data centers pull 200 to 600 megawatts each — we're going to have to build a lot of new power plants fast”
Bass Says Investors Should Stay in North America
2024-05-07 HKD bearish Kyle Bass · video
The 40-year HKD peg is unsustainable because Hong Kong and China's economies have diverged sharply from the US — facing real estate collapse, banking crisis and unemployment — creating extreme interest rate differentials that will ultimately break the peg
“a 40-year-old peg that's rigid in two dynamic economies — in the end it will break”
90d +15.2% · 180d +10.1% · 1y +38.7%
Bass Says Investors Should Stay in North America
2024-05-07 NORTH AMERICA / US CAPITAL MARKETS (STAY HOME) bullish Kyle Bass · video
The US represents 25% of world GDP and 40% of global capital markets while geopolitical instability and dollar-exported inflation have materially impaired most of the rest of the world, making North American innovation the dominant risk-adjusted opportunity.
“Investors better be thinking stay home and invest in the innovation in North America”
Bass Says Investors Should Stay in North America
2024-05-07 China Equities bearish Kyle Bass · video
The Chinese Communist Party's geopolitical belligerence aligned with Russia, Iran, and North Korea creates a structural risk that Western capital invested in China will ultimately be lost.
“Whatever we have invested over there we're going to lose it”
90d +6.7% · 180d -18.7% · 1y -30.4%
Bass Says Investors Should Stay in North America
2024-05-07 SUN BELT US REAL ESTATE (TEXAS, FLORIDA, TENNESSEE) bullish Kyle Bass · video
Corporations and individuals are migrating to low-tax, business-friendly Sun Belt states, creating durable demand for real estate and land in those markets.
“Florida, Tennessee, Texas — states with positive migration — I think is a great place to put your capital”
Bass Says Investors Should Stay in North America
2024-05-07 POWER GENERATION / ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE (DATA CENTER BUILDOUT) bullish Kyle Bass · video
New hyperscale data centers draw 200–600 MW each versus under 90 MW historically, requiring a wave of new power plant construction that is still in early stages.
“New hyperscale data centers pull 200 to 600 megawatts each — we're going to have to build a lot of new power plants fast”
Bass Says Investors Should Stay in North America
2024-02-29 China Equities bearish Kyle Bass · video
Investing in communist-run markets structurally destroys capital—China's GDP rose 500% over 15 years yet the index lost a third of its value, and ongoing real estate collapse, data opacity, and CCP legal changes make recovery impossible
“GDP is up 500% and you've lost a third of your money. Why would you ever do that?”
90d -15.8% · 180d -13.8% · 1y -53.2%
Uncovering the Truth: Is China's Economy Collapsing? w/ Kyle Bass (TIP611)
2024-02-29 Long Dur Treasuries bullish Kyle Bass · video
US Treasuries used as post-margin collateral for selling HKD forward provide 3.5-4% positive carry, meaning the position profits even if the HKD peg does not break, creating an asymmetric risk/reward
“If nothing happens, I still make 3 and a half, 4% because of the positive carry.”
90d -4.6% · 180d +6.1% · 1y +2.2%
Uncovering the Truth: Is China's Economy Collapsing? w/ Kyle Bass (TIP611)
2024-02-29 HONG KONG EQUITIES / HONG KONG REAL ESTATE bearish Kyle Bass · video
Since China's takeover Hong Kong markets are down 50% and real estate down 25%-plus with reported numbers understating reality, and deterioration is ongoing as CCP control tightens
“Since China took over, they've dropped every year for the last four years.”
Uncovering the Truth: Is China's Economy Collapsing? w/ Kyle Bass (TIP611)
2024-02-29 HKD bearish Kyle Bass · video
China's financial collapse—defaulting local government bonds, real estate implosion, and forced Treasury liquidation—will break the HKD/USD peg, while positive carry on US Treasuries used as collateral means the trade makes money even if wrong
“If I'm wrong, I still make money. If I'm right, we will make multiples of our capital.”
90d +7.6% · 180d +28.5% · 1y +40.1%
Uncovering the Truth: Is China's Economy Collapsing? w/ Kyle Bass (TIP611)
2024-02-29 US REAL ESTATE IN SUN BELT / POPULATION-MIGRATION MARKETS (FLORIDA, TEXAS, TENNESSEE) bullish Kyle Bass · video
Large population migrations from high-tax coastal states to pro-business, lower-cost Sun Belt jurisdictions create durable demand tailwinds for real estate, and a China-Taiwan war would push rates to zero and expand the Fed balance sheet, further inflating…
“I want to buy real estate in front of that macro movement…I know that we're going to win.”
Uncovering the Truth: Is China's Economy Collapsing? w/ Kyle Bass (TIP611)
2024-02-29 US FARMLAND / CONSERVATION REAL ESTATE (TIMBERLAND, WETLANDS) bullish Kyle Bass · video
Real productive land assets hedge Fed money-printing and inflation, generate income via federally regulated environmental credits, and benefit from generational wealth-preservation demand regardless of macro outcome
“Generational wealth families own a lot of land in interesting areas. Just about all of them.”
Uncovering the Truth: Is China's Economy Collapsing? w/ Kyle Bass (TIP611)
2024-02-29 CHINESE EQUITIES (SHANGHAI SHENZHEN 300) bearish Kyle Bass · video
Communist-controlled capital markets structurally destroy long-term investor wealth due to absence of rule of law, expropriation risk, and data opacity; the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 lost one-third of value despite 500% GDP growth over 15 years
“GDP is up 500% and you've lost a third of your money. Why would you ever do that?”
Uncovering the Truth: Is China's Economy Collapsing? w/ Kyle Bass (TIP611)
2024-02-29 US REAL ESTATE IN FLORIDA, TENNESSEE, AND TEXAS bullish Kyle Bass · video
Secular population migration from high-tax, high-cost coastal states to pro-business, lower-cost jurisdictions creates durable real estate demand; levered ownership layered with environmental income credits (wetlands, stream restoration) provides inflation…
“I want to buy real estate in front of that macro movement and I actually want to be levered with that real estate”
Uncovering the Truth: Is China's Economy Collapsing? w/ Kyle Bass (TIP611)
2024-02-29 long USTS / short HKD other Kyle Bass · video
China's financial collapse and forced dollar-selling to defend the renminbi will eventually break the HKD-USD peg maintained since 1983, while long US Treasuries as collateral generates ~3.5-4% positive carry that makes the wait cost-free and profitable even…
“if I'm wrong, I still make money... if I'm right, we will make multiples of our capital”
90d +3.0% · 180d +17.0% · 1y +22.5%
Uncovering the Truth: Is China's Economy Collapsing? w/ Kyle Bass (TIP611)
2024-01-12 BANKS bearish video
Chinese banks carry 33–45% of assets in Chinese and Hong Kong real estate loans against a backdrop of nearly 400% banking leverage to GDP, creating a banking crisis as the LGFV and developer loan books deteriorate
“you're clearly seeing a real estate crisis, banks have a third to 45% of their assets in Chinese and Hong Kong real estate loans”
90d +0.6% · 180d -6.8% · 1y -24.2%
2024-01-12 CHINESE REAL ESTATE DEVELOPERS bearish video
Every public Chinese real estate developer is in bankruptcy or default as Xi Jinping ended the speculative cycle that drove GDP growth, and home-price-to-income ratios of 17x in tier-one cities cannot recover without destroying population growth incentives
“real estate isn't going to bounce in China, it can't”
2023-07-11 USTS bearish Kyle Bass · video
The Fed and Treasury will crowd out bank deposits and private markets by issuing ~$900B in new Treasuries before year-end, and recession plus tight bank lending will pressure the economy, making long-duration exposure dangerous
“the Fed and the treasury are going to crowd out the markets”
90d +3.5% · 180d -2.0% · 1y -2.1%
Kyle Bass On China: 'We Sit At A Hinge In History Right Now'
2023-07-11 Commercial Real Estate bearish Kyle Bass · video
Structural work-from-home shift has permanently eliminated demand for lower-quality office space, making B and C class buildings functionally worthless — US banking system will absorb ~$225B in office losses with some bank failures concentrated among heavy…
“B and C I kind of said something hyperbolic and I said you're gonna have to bulldoze those things”
90d +11.1% · 180d -5.3% · 1y -3.3%
Kyle Bass On China: 'We Sit At A Hinge In History Right Now'
2023-07-11 USD bearish Kyle Bass · video
CPI is deliberately understated via chain-weighting while the true price level has risen ~40%, and wages have not caught up, meaning real inflation remains structurally elevated and the dollar's purchasing power continues to erode
“the price level has moved from par to 140; wages have a long way to go”
90d +5.9% · 180d +3.6% · 1y +9.6%
Kyle Bass On China: 'We Sit At A Hinge In History Right Now'
2023-07-11 China Equities bearish Kyle Bass · video
China's cascading legal changes — 2020 nationalization-under-war clause, 2021 counter-sanctions law allowing asset seizure and employee detention, July 2023 sweeping foreign-policy law — combined with explicit military buildup and Treasury selling create…
“the U.S and our investors are the ones who helped build their War Machine by investing money in China”
90d +4.1% · 180d +14.0% · 1y +0.7%
Kyle Bass On China: 'We Sit At A Hinge In History Right Now'
2023-07-11 GALLIUM AND GERMANIUM / SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN bullish Kyle Bass · video
China's restriction of gallium and germanium exports used in semiconductor manufacturing is an economic war move that will disrupt chip supply chains, implying bullish pressure on non-China semiconductor material supply
“China restricting the export of gallium and germanium used in semiconductor manufacturing — that is an economic war move”
Kyle Bass On China: 'We Sit At A Hinge In History Right Now'
2023-05-23 BANKS bearish Kyle Bass · video
A subset of ~20-30 regional banks have commercial real estate exposures at 400-600% of equity, and with office CRE facing 50-60% write-downs, several will be forced into failure or distress over the next 1-2 years
“there'll be a couple handfuls of other banks in the next year or two that end up succumbing”
90d -9.9% · 180d -14.5% · 1y -36.6%
How can investors find weakness on a balance sheet?
2022-09-14 AUTO FINANCE / CAR LOANS bearish Kyle Bass · video
Used car prices are collapsing from peaks while loan LTVs exceeded 120% and loan terms stretched to 120 months, creating a wave of non-performing auto loans
“car loans got north of 60 months some are much north of 60 months they're 120 percent of LTV and now you have car prices really collapsing”
Kyle Bass on The Market, Energy Crisis & His New Big Bet For The Next Decade
2022-09-14 ENERGY bullish Kyle Bass · video
Germany and France face electricity prices 20x their five-year average this winter because Europe was structurally sold into Russian energy dependency, creating multi-year energy insecurity that will cause deep recessions
“the next call it November December January straight north of a thousand euros per megawatt hour”
90d +6.2% · 180d +0.5% · 1y +18.1%
Kyle Bass on The Market, Energy Crisis & His New Big Bet For The Next Decade

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