Investors / stance tracking
What Erik Townsend is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowHost, MacroVoices podcast
Media
21 dated public stances tracked since 2021-12-30, most recently 2026-06-04. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Erik Townsend's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Erik Townsend is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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21
tracked stances
12
themes
2
side flips
2026-06-04
last heard
Returns 90d +0.6% 40% correct · 15 calls · 180d +5.2% 50% correct · 12 calls · 1y +17.9% 62% correct · 8 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +3.0% | — | — |
| 2026-05-28 | URANIUM | bullish | -5.3% | — | — |
| 2026-05-28 | GOLD | bearish | -2.1% | — | — |
| 2026-04-09 | OIL | owns | -11.6% | +14.1% | — |
| 2026-03-12 | GOLD | bullish | -19.8% | -14.4% | — |
| 2026-02-19 | URANIUM | bullish | -10.9% | -19.1% | — |
| 2026-02-19 | SPX | bearish | -8.6% | -12.7% | — |
| 2024-07-25 | URANIUM | owns | +17.2% | +11.2% | +59.4% |
| 2024-07-25 | GOLD | bullish | +14.9% | +15.9% | +40.8% |
| 2022-07-21 | USD | bullish | +6.4% | -2.6% | -1.1% |
| 2022-07-21 | Gold Miners | owns | -11.1% | +24.5% | +24.4% |
| 2022-07-14 | USD | bearish | -4.9% | +3.6% | +4.0% |
| 2022-07-14 | OIL | bullish | -2.6% | -9.5% | -7.4% |
| 2022-07-14 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +2.3% | -2.8% | -3.9% |
| 2021-12-30 | OIL | bullish | +41.4% | +53.8% | +27.2% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 3 | 2 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-05-28 | |
| OIL | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-04-09 | |
| URANIUM | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-05-28 | |
| USD | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2022-07-21 | |
| ADVANCED NUCLEAR / SMALL MODULAR REACTORS | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-03-12 | |
| Commodities Broad | 1 | 1 bullish | 2022-07-14 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-06-04
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Macro Voices · video
Rising oil prices are reigniting inflation expectations and pushing yields higher, with the 10-year yield's path of least resistance pointing toward a 5% handle as the oil-yield correlation that has held for 2–3 months continues
“can we see a 5% handle on the 10-year yield — it's certainly the path of least resistance”
90d +3.0%
MacroVoices #535 Michael Every: NAFTA and NAPTHA – Warcraft & Fartcraft
Long-term structural demand for uranium is intact driven by accelerating nuclear build-out via small modular reactors, though short-term price action remains weak amid broader equity risk-off pressure from the oil crisis
“I'm super duper bullish long-term”
90d -5.3%
MacroVoices #534 Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Superpower War or Superpower Hug?
Said again: 2026-06-04 (Macro Voices), 2026-06-19 (Macro Voices)
Distributive price action in gold and the broader precious metals complex suggests further downside toward the March $4,100 low, with limited support unless the Iran/Strait crisis is concretely resolved
“I don't think it's going to hold…very likely going to retest that $4,100 low from early March”
90d -2.1%
MacroVoices #534 Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Superpower War or Superpower Hug?
2026-05-14
SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS (SHORT/HEDGE)
bearish
Macro Voices · video
Semiconductors are at historically overbought levels and have been the narrow driver of S&P all-time highs, making a mean-reversion correction likely and justifying ratio put spread hedges as flagged by Nomura's Charlie McElligott
“semiconductors here are so overbought that at some stage mean reversion driven by a correction in semis would be a very natural thing to occur”
MacroVoices #532 Mike Green: Record Mechanical Flows
2026-04-09
long OIL / short OIL
spread
Macro Voices · video
Excessive backwardation reflects the market's incorrect assumption that the conflict will be short-lived; September contracts are priced at a steep discount to spot, providing cheap optionality—cost under $2/bbl for 3 months more time—on a scenario where a…
“I was looking for an extreme right tail risk hedge”
MacroVoices #527 Adam Rozencwajg & Jim Bianco: What Comes Next After The Iran Crisis
At $75, the December 2026 WTI contract is mispriced because SPR rebuilding demand and persistent Strait of Hormuz disruption mean inventories will not recover as the forward curve assumes
“buying December 26 futures for 75 bucks... seems to me like that's a pretty good bet”
90d -11.6% · 180d +14.1%
MacroVoices #527 Adam Rozencwajg & Jim Bianco: What Comes Next After The Iran Crisis
Said again: 2026-04-16 (Macro Voices), 2026-06-18 (Macro Voices), 2026-06-19 (Macro Voices)
2026-03-12
long GOLD / long GOLD / short GOLD
hedge
Macro Voices · video
Gold fundamentals remain long-term bullish but a liquidity-driven selloff (sell-what-you-can margin dynamics, as in 2008) is a real near-term risk, making a cashless collar the optimal way to stay long while neutralizing left-tail exposure at zero net premium
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco: Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict.
Gold fundamentals remain structurally bullish long-term but near-term forced selling from margin calls in a broad risk-off event could cause a temporary flush, making a cashless collar the optimal way to stay long while hedging left-tail risk
“people sell what they can, not what they want to, when a market is crashing”
90d -19.8% · 180d -14.4%
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco: Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict.
2026-03-12
ADVANCED NUCLEAR / SMALL MODULAR REACTORS
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Regulatory approval of TerraPower's sodium-cooled reactor marks a breakthrough away from 1950s water-cooled technology, and allowing hyperscalers to build SMRs to power data centers could net-add energy to the grid rather than straining it
“the first time in the 52-year history of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that they have ever approved a civilian power reactor cooled by something other than water”
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco: Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict.
Swing low appears to be in place and the daily stochastics are set up for a swing trade higher, with the base case being another leg up barring an AI sector unwind or broad market risk event
“the technical setup looks good for another leg higher”
90d -10.9% · 180d -19.1%
MacroVoices #520 Michael Every: USD Stablecoins in The Age of Economic Statecraft
Said again: 2026-04-09 (Macro Voices), 2026-05-07 (Macro Voices)
Midterm election uncertainty creates escalating headwinds as markets increasingly price in the risk of Democrats retaking Congress and halting Trump's economic statecraft agenda, making left tail outcomes fatter than right tails through November
“from now to the election, the left tails are fatter than the right tails”
90d -8.6% · 180d -12.7%
MacroVoices #520 Michael Every: USD Stablecoins in The Age of Economic Statecraft
Said again: 2026-05-14 (Macro Voices)
Uranium shares are pricing below the long-term contracting price (SPUT implies ~$74-75 vs $83 spot) and the nuclear renaissance is intact, but broader market risk-off driven by election uncertainty could push prices lower before the fundamental bull case…
“already very much overweight uranium mining shares and extremely confident I will eventually sell them much higher”
90d +17.2% · 180d +11.2% · 1y +59.4%
MacroVoices #438 Marko Papic: U.S. Presidential Race Risks & Complications for Markets
Long-term fundamentals including elevated debt, fiscal profligacy, and election uncertainty are strongly bullish for gold, though a near-term risk-off equity selloff may temporarily drag gold lower before fundamentals reassert
“I remain super duper bullish gold long-term but I'm not persuaded that the swing low is in yet”
90d +14.9% · 180d +15.9% · 1y +40.8%
MacroVoices #438 Marko Papic: U.S. Presidential Race Risks & Complications for Markets
2022-07-21
Gold Miners
owns
Harley Bassman · video
Geopolitical risk between Russia and the West is higher than perceived and likely to worsen, and a potential BRICS digital currency backed by natural resources would create structural gold demand.
“the reason that i am still very much long gold and gold mining shares is i think that geopolitical risk is higher than perceived”
90d -11.1% · 180d +24.5% · 1y +24.4%
MacroVoices #333 Harley Bassman: Inflation, Bond Yields, VIX vs. MOVE, Demographics & More
The recent pullback is a healthy correction within an intact bull market trend, and plenty of macro reasons remain for further dollar strength.
“there's plenty of reason to think the dollar moves higher from here”
90d +6.4% · 180d -2.6% · 1y -1.1%
MacroVoices #333 Harley Bassman: Inflation, Bond Yields, VIX vs. MOVE, Demographics & More
Physical market time spreads are exploding indicating real supply tightness while macro traders sell futures on recession fears, creating a mispricing that will correct sharply higher as Putin withholds Russian oil in fall/winter
“before the summer is out we'll see higher energy prices than we've seen yet above 130 dollars”
90d -2.6% · 180d -9.5% · 1y -7.4%
Erik Townsend (Global Recession, Future Gas Price, Food/Energy Inflation, SPR, Putin's Playbook)
Said again: 2022-07-21 (Harley Bassman)
2022-07-14
Commodities Broad
bullish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
Fertilizer shortages driven by Russian export disruptions and idled Canadian potash production will shrink crop yields and drive staple food commodity prices dramatically higher
“everything that's made from corn or everything that's made from wheat is doubling in price then things really start to get ugly”
90d +2.3% · 180d -2.8% · 1y -3.9%
Erik Townsend (Global Recession, Future Gas Price, Food/Energy Inflation, SPR, Putin's Playbook)
2022-07-14
OIL TIME SPREADS (FRONT OF CURVE)
bullish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
Front-month time spreads have barely declined despite the large sell-off in outright crude prices, signaling the physical market is extremely tight and diverging from speculative futures positioning
“the time spreads which are a more direct measure of the physical market tightness they haven't come down hardly at all”
Erik Townsend (Global Recession, Future Gas Price, Food/Energy Inflation, SPR, Putin's Playbook)
2022-07-14
US OIL REFINING CAPACITY / CRACK SPREADS
bullish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
ESG pressure and Biden administration hostility to fossil fuels have made new refinery investment economically unviable, permanently reducing US refining capacity and structurally widening crack spreads
“nobody wants to invest in building that so we're losing refining capacity”
Erik Townsend (Global Recession, Future Gas Price, Food/Energy Inflation, SPR, Putin's Playbook)
Putin's strategic goal is to displace the USD as global reserve currency by leveraging energy and commodity dominance with China and BRICS to force a new commodity-backed digital reserve system
“what putin has embarked on is a war with the west designed toward displacing the u.s dollar as the global reserve currency”
90d -4.9% · 180d +3.6% · 1y +4.0%
Erik Townsend (Global Recession, Future Gas Price, Food/Energy Inflation, SPR, Putin's Playbook)
The world is phasing out oil faster than alternatives can replace it while simultaneously halting investment in new exploration and production, ensuring expensive oil defines the final era of the commodity
“i think we'll hit a hundred dollars before 2022 is over”
90d +41.4% · 180d +53.8% · 1y +27.2%
MacroVoices #304 Louis-Vincent Gave: China, Russia, US Dollar & more
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