Investors / stance tracking
What Ben Carlson is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowDirector of institutional AM, Ritholtz Wealth
35 dated public stances tracked since 2024-10-02, most recently 2026-10-28. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Ben Carlson's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Ben Carlson is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
35
tracked stances
25
themes
1
side flips
2026-10-28
last heard
Returns 90d +6.5% 67% correct · 15 calls · 180d +8.2% 73% correct · 11 calls · 1y +2.8% 50% correct · 10 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | NFLX | bullish | +0.2% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | Investment Grade Credit | bullish | -3.4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-01 | META | bullish | +20.6% | — | — |
| 2026-06-03 | BITCOIN | bullish | +20.9% | — | — |
| 2026-04-15 | NKE | bearish | +4.8% | +20.7% | — |
| 2025-07-23 | BITCOIN | bullish | -8.8% | -22.1% | -45.2% |
| 2025-06-11 | Big Tech | bullish | +9.2% | +17.5% | +35.3% |
| 2025-05-14 | KKR | bearish | -14.3% | +6.8% | +22.5% |
| 2025-04-23 | BX | bullish | +34.3% | +28.0% | -0.4% |
| 2025-04-16 | BITCOIN | bullish | +40.2% | +37.1% | -10.6% |
| 2025-03-12 | European Equities | bullish | +9.1% | +12.6% | +20.0% |
| 2025-02-12 | Big Tech | bearish | +2.3% | -8.7% | -14.3% |
| 2025-01-09 | SPX | bullish | -5.2% | +7.5% | +21.0% |
| 2024-12-04 | HOUSING | bullish | -18.4% | -22.4% | -9.9% |
| 2024-11-13 | BITCOIN | bullish | +5.8% | +13.5% | +10.0% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Big Tech — bearish2025-02-12 → bullish2025-06-11
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BITCOIN | 4 | 4 bullish | 2026-06-03 | |
| Big Tech | 3 | 2 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-09-24 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 neutral | 2026-10-22 | |
| RUSSELL 2000 / SMALL CAPS | 2 | 2 bullish | 2025-07-23 | |
| AGG | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-09-18 | |
| BRK | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-06-10 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-28
long TOL / short LEN
pair
The Compound · video
Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers outperforms entry-level peers like Lennar because its cash-buyer customer base (~25% of sales at ~$1M avg price) is insulated from high mortgage rates while entry-level demand craters
“Toll Brothers the stock looks way better than Lennar. Way better.”
Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money | Animal Spirits 488
10-year Treasuries are the best one-for-one hedge against AI slowdown risk because tech companies are deeply tied to debt markets, empirically demonstrated when IEF gained 1% on the day the Nasdaq fell 3%
“If you're really nervous about AI, bonds are the best hedge you can get”
Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money | Animal Spirits 488
2026-10-22
Long Dur Treasuries
neutral
A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson) · article
TLT's ~15-year duration creates excessive price sensitivity to rate moves, making long-term Treasuries too volatile relative to their return potential compared with shorter-duration alternatives
“Long-term Treasuries are far too volatile for my taste”
How I Think About Investing in Bonds
2026-10-15
US VALUE AND DIVIDEND STOCKS
bullish
A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson) · article
Value and dividend strategies break from market-cap weighting and carry far less tech/AI exposure than the S&P 500, providing sector diversification if the AI trade unwinds
“dividend stocks, value stocks, quality stocks, low vol stocks, bonds, REITs”
Hedging the AI Trade
2026-10-08
long Investment Grade Credit / long US LARGE-CAP EQUITIES
hedge
A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson) · article
Bonds at current ~5% yields finally offer competitive standalone returns AND crash-hedge value, but holding 100% bonds exposes investors to inflation erosion — a 20% stock allocation hedges that inflation risk while barely increasing portfolio volatility…
“you could make the case that it's probably riskier to have all of your money in bonds than it is to have a small allocation to stock”
Better Investment Right Now: Stocks or Bonds?
2026-09-24
Big Tech
bullish
A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson) · article
Public tech index investors are not missing out on private-market innovation because Mag 7 companies have made 700+ acquisitions in 20 years effectively internalising that upside, while QQQ itself compounded at 20%/year for 15 years beating the vast majority…
“Yes, you can be a Boglehead tech investor by putting your money to work in the stock market”
Can You Be a Boglehead Tech Investor?
2026-09-18
AGG
bullish
A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson) · article
Starting yield is a strong predictor of intermediate-bond forward returns; AGG's current ~5.3% YTM implies roughly 5% annual returns over the next 5-7 years, a materially better setup than the sub-2% yields of the early 2020s
“a 5% starting yield in bonds means your returns in intermediate bonds over the next 5-7 years should be in the vicinity of roughly 5% per year”
5% Bond Yields
2026-09-03
Managed Futures
owns
A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson) · article
Increasing allocation to trend-following as a systematic risk management overlay because portfolio size and bull market duration raise the cost of a drawdown for a mid-life investor
“I have been increasing my allocation to our trend-following strategy because I like having a risk management component”
How to Invest When Your Portfolio Gets Bigger
2026-08-26
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
The Compound · video
Bonds offer highly asymmetric risk/reward at current yield levels — a 1% rate drop generates +12% return on the 10-year vs. only a 2% loss if rates rise another 1%, while the asset class is simultaneously the most hated among hedge funds and macro…
“the risk-reward trade-off in bonds right now is way skewed to the upside than the downside”
Are Free Markets Dead? | Animal Spirits 479
Sticky inflation anchoring the US in a 3%-world makes the current 3% real TIPS yield historically exceptional — real yields were negative as recently as 2021 — yet the market is completely ignoring it due to nominal-return anchoring and bond-loss scars
“how are you getting 3% in a TIPS yield for a 20 or 30-year bond plus inflation? That's a pretty darn good deal”
The Best Bear Case on AI | Animal Spirits 478
Said again: 2026-08-26 (A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson)), 2026-10-22 (A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson))
2026-07-29
INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES
bullish
The Compound · video
Stock ownership in countries like Japan is only 15% of households versus 65% in the US, and as barriers to investing fall globally the structural under-ownership is a multi-year demand tailwind for non-US equities
“Japan 15% of the households own stocks versus 65% here. That's a tailwind for global equities in the years ahead”
45 Million Rich Households | AS 475
Netflix is the only beaten-down tech name with an understandable, proven business model — it won streaming and its second-season viewing holds within expectations, making it the most sensible buy among names down 30-60%
“Netflix is the only company that I understand so like as an investment I'm going to hang around.”
90d +0.2%
Say Bubble One More Time. I Dare You! | Animal Spirits 474
2026-07-15
Investment Grade Credit
bullish
The Compound · video
Bond yields are at the highest levels in 15 years while investors remain underallocated due to trauma from the 2020-2022 bear market, creating the largest margin of safety in a generation
“people would have killed for these yields 5 years ago”
90d -3.4%
Will the Fed Buy Stocks? | Animal Spirits 473
Said again: 2026-08-23 (A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson)), 2026-10-08 (A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson))
2026-07-15
US TECH STOCKS (FORWARD EARNINGS BASIS)
bullish
The Compound · video
Tech sector forward PE is below both 5-year and 10-year averages and near its lowest level since early 2025, meaning the 'tech bubble' valuation argument is not supported by the data
“tech stock valuations are improving during what many think is a technology bubble”
Will the Fed Buy Stocks? | Animal Spirits 473
Hyperscalers have re-rated down to market multiples with free cash flow projections collapsing to near zero, making them a clearly superior 3-year hold over memory stocks that are up 1,500% on a wave of capex that is now compressing the spenders' valuations
“It's not even close. The hyperscalers.”
90d +20.6%
Is Debt Fueling the Rally? | Animal Spirits 471
2026-06-17
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STOCKS
bullish
The Compound · video
Home prices are at all-time highs and buyers are gradually accepting elevated prices as the new normal, while the largest millennial demographic cohort still needs to purchase homes, creating a multi-year demand tailwind for the sector
“I am starting to get bullish on residential real estate stocks. It might be early.”
How Much Is $1 Trillion? | Animal Spirits 469
2026-06-10
BRK
bullish
The Compound · video
With tech now comprising ~50% of the S&P index, Berkshire's minimal AI/tech exposure and lack of investor demand ('no bid, nobody wants it') makes it one of the few places to hide if the AI trade unravels
“I do think that like Berkshire is probably a good place to hide. It's not quite lagging to the extent that it was in 1999”
The Teflon Economy | Animal Spirits 468
Strategy being forced to sell Bitcoin is long-term positive for crypto because Saylor's role as the face of Bitcoin was a reputational drag on the asset class, and removing that association benefits crypto broadly
“I think this is short-term negative for crypto, long-term positive”
90d +20.9%
The Biggest Short Squeeze of All Time | Animal Spirits 467
Nike's pivot to direct-to-consumer away from wholesale channels (including Amazon) was a strategic mistake that is now compounding — digital and store revenues declining, market share eroding — making it a poor investment regardless of brand strength
“it's a shitty investment and the company is legitimately not doing great”
90d +4.8% · 180d +20.7%
2025-08-20
HEALTHCARE STOCKS
bullish
The Compound · video
Healthcare stocks have underperformed tech dramatically since 2020, valuations are now dropping, and the sector is pricing in excessive pessimism around regulation and drug pricing — a contrarian opportunity relative to crowded AI/tech positioning.
“if you're going to take that contrarian bet, I'd rather want healthcare”
Buy the Porsche | Animal Spirits 426
2025-08-13
HEALTHCARE SECTOR
bullish
The Compound · video
Healthcare is trading well below its 5- and 10-year average PE ratios and at a historically low S&P weighting (~8-9%), while decades of baby boomer aging should structurally lift healthcare spend
“I would say opportunity”
Measuring the Wealth Effect | Animal Spirits 425
Pure supply-demand dynamic: ETF inflows running more than 2-to-1 versus new Bitcoin supply, and the brand is irreplaceable — competing cryptocurrencies have failed to displace it
“there is more people that want to buy Bitcoin than people that want to sell Bitcoin”
90d -8.8% · 180d -22.1% · 1y -45.2%
What Is Upper Middle Class? | Animal Spirits 422
2025-07-23
RUSSELL 2000 / SMALL CAPS
bullish
The Compound · video
Historical valuation gap between small and large caps is at a historically wide margin, and mean reversion is inevitable even if the timing is unknown
“there will be a year where they're up 19 and large is up four”
What Is Upper Middle Class? | Animal Spirits 422
2025-06-11
Big Tech
bullish
The Compound · video
35% of the S&P 500 is now a direct beneficiary of AI, making broad index ownership the simplest and lowest-risk way to capture the AI industrial revolution without stock-picking
“35% of the S&P is now direct beneficiary of AI. I think that's the simplest route.”
90d +9.2% · 180d +17.5% · 1y +35.3%
A Bubble Is Coming | Animal Spirits 416
Evergreen and interval PE funds pitched to retail/401k investors are forced to deploy capital immediately — unlike institutional LPs who wait for capital calls — and are absorbing secondary stakes sold by institutions seeking liquidity at artificially…
“I can't help but think that retail is the bag holder here”
90d -14.3% · 180d +6.8% · 1y +22.5%
Winners & Losers From the Stock Market Rally | Animal Spirits 412
Blackstone's wealth management channel hit $270B with record Q1 growth and continues to accelerate, while institutional dry-powder constraints make the wealth channel structurally necessary, supporting EPS growth through any near-term sell-off
“I believe that the earnings per share is going up and to the right”
90d +34.3% · 180d +28.0% · 1y -0.4%
So Bearish It's Bullish | Animal Spirits 409
Crypto offers asymmetric risk-reward that equities cannot match — a 3x move over 36 months is plausible for crypto but not for the S&P 500, so even a small allocation via dollar-cost averaging is worth owning for someone starting from zero
“I still think that it has the potential for asymmetric risk-reward”
90d +40.2% · 180d +37.1% · 1y -10.6%
The Dollar Dump | Animal Spirits 408
2025-04-02
long GOLD
ratio
The Compound · video
Gold continues to function as the true safe-haven in market turmoil while Bitcoin behaves as a plain risk asset, as evidenced by gold +20% YTD vs Bitcoin -10% YTD, and this behavioral divergence may persist
“baby boomer gold is still a better hedge than millennial gold. Bitcoin, it's a risk asset. That's it.”
Ben's Bearish | Animal Spirits 406
2025-03-12
European Equities
bullish
The Compound · video
Germany's fiscal spending binge and NATO/Ukraine watershed moment provide a real, fundamental catalyst for sustained European outperformance, compounded by a weakening dollar that creates a double-whammy tailwind for US-based investors
“the first time the catalyst actually kind of makes sense”
90d +9.1% · 180d +12.6% · 1y +20.0%
The Tariff Tantrum | Animal Spirits 403
2025-02-12
Big Tech
bearish
The Compound · video
Unprecedented concentrated capital spending by Mag 7 has no historical precedent that didn't end in a bust, as human beings inevitably extrapolate and set expectations too high relative to near-term ROI
“there's going to be a bust from all this capital spending it just I don't see how it doesn't”
90d +2.3% · 180d -8.7% · 1y -14.3%
Is $1 Million a Lot of Money? | Animal Spirits 399
It is too early to end the AI spending cycle; companies will keep investing and the market could extend into a late-1990s-style melt-up rather than rolling over in 2025
“the AI bubble kicks into gear and we start looking like okay this is the '90s 20% 30% 20%”
90d -5.2% · 180d +7.5% · 1y +21.0%
Predictions For 2025 | Animal Spirits 394
Said again: 2025-02-12 (The Compound), 2025-04-09 (The Compound)
Structural supply-demand imbalance — the US will not build enough homes over the next decade to meet demand — will keep housing prices above inflation
“I don't think in the next 10 years we're going to build enough homes to meet the demand”
90d -18.4% · 180d -22.4% · 1y -9.9%
The Mother of All Bubbles | Animal Spirits 389
Bitcoin has achieved legitimacy as a new asset class through adoption — institutions, BlackRock, and now a pro-Bitcoin president validate what was once laughed at, making the adoption cycle self-reinforcing
“holy shit they did it they won I mean if you're still screaming about Bitcoin just stop”
90d +5.8% · 180d +13.5% · 1y +10.0%
The Bitcoiners Won | Animal Spirits 386
2024-11-13
RUSSELL 2000 / SMALL CAPS
bullish
The Compound · video
Small caps are flat over three years versus the S&P up 33%, with higher interest rates as the primary headwind — making them the cheapest and most underperforming segment with the most room to run in a rate-easing environment
“if you're looking for what has more room to run and what's cheaper and what's underperformed it's everything else — small caps is one of those”
The Bitcoiners Won | Animal Spirits 386
2024-10-02
WEARABLE AI GLASSES REPLACING SMARTPHONES
short
The Compound · video
Wearable AI glasses will not displace smartphones as Zuckerberg claims because consumers have already shown they do not want face-worn computing devices
“I'm shorting this this is my highest conviction short there's no way that these wearables and glasses are going to be bigger than phones”
The Most Bullish Backdrop | Animal Spirits 380
Idea Scout Weekly
Every Sunday: who said what across the tape we track — 1766 voices, 5,177 episodes and articles — with side-flips and points of disagreement called out. Free. How we track it.
Free · double opt-in · unsubscribe in one click