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Investors / stance tracking

What Ben Carlson is saying

Director of institutional AM, Ritholtz Wealth

25 dated public stances tracked since 2024-10-02, most recently 2026-08-26. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Ben Carlson's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Ben Carlson is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

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25
tracked stances
20
themes
0
side flips
2026-08-26
last heard
Returns  90d +6.4% (n=15) · 180d +7.8% (n=13) · 1y +5.8% (n=13)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
BITCOIN22 bullish2026-06-03
Investment Grade Credit22 bullish2026-08-23
SPX22 bullish2025-04-09
USTS22 bullish2026-08-26
BRK11 bullish2026-06-10
BX11 bullish2025-04-23

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

1 newer stance from Ben Carlson is in The Brief — subscribers hear it first; this page updates a week later.
2026-08-26 USTS bullish A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson) · article
The US will not face a sovereign debt crisis because it has the world's largest economy, the reserve currency, the most wealthy individuals, and there is simply no substitute for Treasuries — spending will continue but a crisis will not materialize.
“I'm not worried about a US government debt crisis...There is no substitute for Treasuries”
Animal Spirits: Are Free Markets Dead?
2026-08-26 Long Dur Treasuries bullish The Compound · video
Bonds offer highly asymmetric risk/reward at current yield levels — a 1% rate drop generates +12% return on the 10-year vs. only a 2% loss if rates rise another 1%, while the asset class is simultaneously the most hated among hedge funds and macro…
“the risk-reward trade-off in bonds right now is way skewed to the upside than the downside”
Are Free Markets Dead? | Animal Spirits 479
2026-08-23 Investment Grade Credit bullish A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson) · article
Bond convexity creates an asymmetric return profile—a 1% rate decline on the 10-year Treasury produces roughly +12% total return over 12 months while a 1% rate rise costs only ~2%, making the risk/reward skewed in favor of holders despite near-universal…
“Everyone will wish they owned more high quality bonds.”
The Most Hated Asset Class in the World
2026-08-19 USTS bullish The Compound · video
Sticky inflation anchoring the US in a 3%-world makes the current 3% real TIPS yield historically exceptional — real yields were negative as recently as 2021 — yet the market is completely ignoring it due to nominal-return anchoring and bond-loss scars
“how are you getting 3% in a TIPS yield for a 20 or 30-year bond plus inflation? That's a pretty darn good deal”
The Best Bear Case on AI | Animal Spirits 478
2026-07-29 INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES bullish The Compound · video
Stock ownership in countries like Japan is only 15% of households versus 65% in the US, and as barriers to investing fall globally the structural under-ownership is a multi-year demand tailwind for non-US equities
“Japan 15% of the households own stocks versus 65% here. That's a tailwind for global equities in the years ahead”
45 Million Rich Households | AS 475
2026-07-22 NFLX bullish The Compound · video
Netflix is the only beaten-down tech name with an understandable, proven business model — it won streaming and its second-season viewing holds within expectations, making it the most sensible buy among names down 30-60%
“Netflix is the only company that I understand so like as an investment I'm going to hang around.”
Say Bubble One More Time. I Dare You! | Animal Spirits 474
2026-07-15 Investment Grade Credit bullish The Compound · video
Bond yields are at the highest levels in 15 years while investors remain underallocated due to trauma from the 2020-2022 bear market, creating the largest margin of safety in a generation
“people would have killed for these yields 5 years ago”
Will the Fed Buy Stocks? | Animal Spirits 473
2026-07-15 US TECH STOCKS (FORWARD EARNINGS BASIS) bullish The Compound · video
Tech sector forward PE is below both 5-year and 10-year averages and near its lowest level since early 2025, meaning the 'tech bubble' valuation argument is not supported by the data
“tech stock valuations are improving during what many think is a technology bubble”
Will the Fed Buy Stocks? | Animal Spirits 473
2026-07-01 META bullish The Compound · video
Hyperscalers have re-rated down to market multiples with free cash flow projections collapsing to near zero, making them a clearly superior 3-year hold over memory stocks that are up 1,500% on a wave of capex that is now compressing the spenders' valuations
“It's not even close. The hyperscalers.”
Is Debt Fueling the Rally? | Animal Spirits 471
2026-06-17 RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STOCKS bullish The Compound · video
Home prices are at all-time highs and buyers are gradually accepting elevated prices as the new normal, while the largest millennial demographic cohort still needs to purchase homes, creating a multi-year demand tailwind for the sector
“I am starting to get bullish on residential real estate stocks. It might be early.”
How Much Is $1 Trillion? | Animal Spirits 469
2026-06-10 BRK bullish The Compound · video
With tech now comprising ~50% of the S&P index, Berkshire's minimal AI/tech exposure and lack of investor demand ('no bid, nobody wants it') makes it one of the few places to hide if the AI trade unravels
“I do think that like Berkshire is probably a good place to hide. It's not quite lagging to the extent that it was in 1999”
The Teflon Economy | Animal Spirits 468
2026-06-03 BITCOIN bullish The Compound · video
Strategy being forced to sell Bitcoin is long-term positive for crypto because Saylor's role as the face of Bitcoin was a reputational drag on the asset class, and removing that association benefits crypto broadly
“I think this is short-term negative for crypto, long-term positive”
90d +20.9%
The Biggest Short Squeeze of All Time | Animal Spirits 467
2026-04-15 NKE bearish video
Nike's pivot to direct-to-consumer away from wholesale channels (including Amazon) was a strategic mistake that is now compounding — digital and store revenues declining, market share eroding — making it a poor investment regardless of brand strength
“it's a shitty investment and the company is legitimately not doing great”
90d +4.8%
2025-08-20 HEALTHCARE STOCKS bullish The Compound · video
Healthcare stocks have underperformed tech dramatically since 2020, valuations are now dropping, and the sector is pricing in excessive pessimism around regulation and drug pricing — a contrarian opportunity relative to crowded AI/tech positioning.
“if you're going to take that contrarian bet, I'd rather want healthcare”
Buy the Porsche | Animal Spirits 426
2025-08-13 HEALTHCARE SECTOR bullish The Compound · video
Healthcare is trading well below its 5- and 10-year average PE ratios and at a historically low S&P weighting (~8-9%), while decades of baby boomer aging should structurally lift healthcare spend
“I would say opportunity”
Measuring the Wealth Effect | Animal Spirits 425
2025-07-23 BITCOIN bullish The Compound · video
Pure supply-demand dynamic: ETF inflows running more than 2-to-1 versus new Bitcoin supply, and the brand is irreplaceable — competing cryptocurrencies have failed to displace it
“there is more people that want to buy Bitcoin than people that want to sell Bitcoin”
90d -8.8% · 180d -22.1% · 1y -45.2%
What Is Upper Middle Class? | Animal Spirits 422
2025-05-14 KKR bearish The Compound · video
Evergreen and interval PE funds pitched to retail/401k investors are forced to deploy capital immediately — unlike institutional LPs who wait for capital calls — and are absorbing secondary stakes sold by institutions seeking liquidity at artificially…
“I can't help but think that retail is the bag holder here”
90d -14.3% · 180d +6.8% · 1y +22.5%
Winners & Losers From the Stock Market Rally | Animal Spirits 412
2025-04-23 BX bullish The Compound · video
Blackstone's wealth management channel hit $270B with record Q1 growth and continues to accelerate, while institutional dry-powder constraints make the wealth channel structurally necessary, supporting EPS growth through any near-term sell-off
“I believe that the earnings per share is going up and to the right”
90d +34.3% · 180d +28.0% · 1y -0.4%
So Bearish It's Bullish | Animal Spirits 409
2025-04-09 SPX bullish The Compound · video
Scary markets provide opportunities for long-term wealth building; continuing systematic purchases across brokerage, SEP-IRA, and 401k at lower prices is the rational response because the risk premium exists precisely because markets can fall 20% suddenly.
“Scary times provide opportunities. That is a core tenant of my investing beliefs.”
90d +13.4% · 180d +23.1% · 1y +25.4%
The Stock Market Crashed. Now What? | Animal Spirits 407
2025-04-02 long GOLD ratio The Compound · video
Gold continues to function as the true safe-haven in market turmoil while Bitcoin behaves as a plain risk asset, as evidenced by gold +20% YTD vs Bitcoin -10% YTD, and this behavioral divergence may persist
“baby boomer gold is still a better hedge than millennial gold. Bitcoin, it's a risk asset. That's it.”
Ben's Bearish | Animal Spirits 406
2025-03-12 European Equities bullish The Compound · video
Germany's fiscal spending binge and NATO/Ukraine watershed moment provide a real, fundamental catalyst for sustained European outperformance, compounded by a weakening dollar that creates a double-whammy tailwind for US-based investors
“the first time the catalyst actually kind of makes sense”
90d +9.1% · 180d +12.6% · 1y +20.0%
The Tariff Tantrum | Animal Spirits 403
2025-02-12 Big Tech bearish The Compound · video
Unprecedented concentrated capital spending by Mag 7 has no historical precedent that didn't end in a bust, as human beings inevitably extrapolate and set expectations too high relative to near-term ROI
“there's going to be a bust from all this capital spending it just I don't see how it doesn't”
90d +2.3% · 180d -8.7% · 1y -14.3%
Is $1 Million a Lot of Money? | Animal Spirits 399
2025-01-09 SPX bullish The Compound · video
It is too early to end the AI spending cycle; companies will keep investing and the market could extend into a late-1990s-style melt-up rather than rolling over in 2025
“the AI bubble kicks into gear and we start looking like okay this is the '90s 20% 30% 20%”
90d -5.2% · 180d +7.5% · 1y +21.0%
Predictions For 2025 | Animal Spirits 394
2024-11-13 RUSSELL 2000 / SMALL CAPS bullish The Compound · video
Small caps are flat over three years versus the S&P up 33%, with higher interest rates as the primary headwind — making them the cheapest and most underperforming segment with the most room to run in a rate-easing environment
“if you're looking for what has more room to run and what's cheaper and what's underperformed it's everything else — small caps is one of those”
The Bitcoiners Won | Animal Spirits 386
2024-10-02 WEARABLE AI GLASSES REPLACING SMARTPHONES short The Compound · video
Wearable AI glasses will not displace smartphones as Zuckerberg claims because consumers have already shown they do not want face-worn computing devices
“I'm shorting this this is my highest conviction short there's no way that these wearables and glasses are going to be bigger than phones”
The Most Bullish Backdrop | Animal Spirits 380

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Newest stances reach Brief subscribers first; these pages update on a one-week lag.